Poll Tracker

• North Carolina: Obama continues to be competitive in a state that the Republicans have carried in the last five elections, but a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 13 finds McCain picking up a little ground. McCain leads Obama 46 percent to 42 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 8 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. But McCain widens that lead to 6 points when voters leaning one way or the other are included. In the last Rasmussen survey in mid-July, McCain led by 3. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 59 percent to 40 percent while Obama's is 51 percent to 48 percent. McCain has stronger support than Obama with his own base, drawing the backing of 87 percent of Republicans compared to Obama's 74 percent of Democrats. McCain has better than a 2-to-1 margin among white voters. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Aug. 9-11 gave McCain a 49 percent to 45 percent lead that's just a hair beyond the 3.9 percent margin of error. Three percent preferred "other" and 3 percent were undecided. McCain leads by 9 among men voters and the two men are statistically even among women. McCain leads among voters over 34, with the most pronounced advantage being a 13 point edge among voters over 65 (18 percent of the sample). McCain leads 60 percent to 33 percent among white voters (75 percent of the sample) while Obama leads 91 percent to 9 percent among blacks (19 percent of the sample). The economy is cited by voters as the top issue and Obama and McCain run evenly among them. A Research 2000 poll conducted July 28-30 had McCain ahead 47 percent to 43 percent with a 4 point margin of error, a narrowing of the gap of 5 points since its last survey in April. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 23-27 had McCain leading by a statistically insignificant 47 percent to 44 percent with 6 percent undecided and 3 percent favoring Libertarian Bob Barr. The margin of error was 3.4 percent. In late June, PPP had McCain ahead by 4 points. McCain has a 9 point lead among men. Obama led by 13 points among voters under 29 (13 percent of the sample) and McCain led 27 percent among those over 65 (17 percent of the sample). He led 57 percent to 34 percent among white voters (77 percent of the sample), counterbalancing Obama's huge 82 to 8 percent lead among black voters (20 percent of the sample). CQ Politics' Election Forecast lists this state as "Republican Favored."

• Texas: McCain leads Obama 42 percent to 33 percent among registered voters with Libertarian Bob Barr at just under 5 percent. Ralph Nader at 2 percent and 17 percent undecided, according to a University of Texas-Austin poll conducted July 18-30. The margin of error is 3.77 percent. The poll includes a "feeling thermometer" for which voters were asked to say whether they felt very warm or cold towards a candidate. McCain rated 53.8 degrees to Obama's 50.3 degrees which rated as "no feeling at all." Two percent of Texans said the country's economy was better off than a year ago and 81 percent said it was worse. A Rasmussen Reports Poll conducted July 30 had McCain ahead 50 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and only 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. That's unchanged in this poll from a month ago. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ration was 60 percent to 37 percent while Obama's was 46 percent to 51 percent. McCain led 45 percent to 42 percent among unaffiliated voters. Republicans have comfortably carried the state in all of the last five elections. The CQ Politics Election Forecast calls Texas "Safe Republican."

• Washington State: Obama is leading McCain 51 percent to 44 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Aug. 11-12. The margin of error is 3.7 percent. This is a small lead than the 16 point advantage Obama had in SurveyUSA's mid-July poll. The candidates run evenly among men but Obama has a 16 point advantage among women. In this state, McCain does not have his usual big lead among voters over 65 to offset Obama's draw with younger voters. Obama leads by 11 among voters under 34 and by 3 among voters over 65. Asian-Americans make up 8 percent of the sample in Washington and Obama leads there by 50 points. The two run evenly on voter views of their economic policies, the top issue in the campaign, but reflecting anti-war sentiment, Obama beats McCain 80 percent to 15 percent among the 10 percent of voters who cited Iraq as the top issue. McCain shows his usual overwhelming lead over Obama on handling of terrorism. An Elway Poll conducted July 27-31 had Obama ahead 47 percent to 35 percent with 18 percent undecided. The margin of error was 5 points. A Rasmussen Reports pollconducted July 9 had Obama ahead 48 percent to 39 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 8 percent undecided in a. The margin of error ws 4.5 percent. Obama was viewed favorably by 59 percent of voters and McCain by 55 percent. Democrats have carried the state in the last 5 elections although Michael Dukakis defeated the first George Bush here in 1988 by less than 2 points. CQ Politics' Election Forecast for Washington is "Democrat Favored."

• Wisconsin: Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 42 percent in a Strategic Vision poll conducted Aug. 8-10. The margin of error is three points. A Wisconsin Policy Research Institute poll conducted Aug. 3-4 had Obama ahead 44 percent to 38 percent with 18 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. The modest size of the margin was somewhat surprising given some of the other numbers in the poll. Obama had leads of about 2-to-1 on the two issues that voters identified as the most important, the economy and Iraq. The favorable-to-unfavorable numbers for Obama were 51 percent to 31 percent while McCain's were 46 percent to 37 percent. A Quinnipiac University/Washington/Post poll conducted July 14-22 had Obama leading McCain 50 percent to 39 percent with 9 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 percent. Obama had a 25 point lead among women voters compared to McCain's 6 point advantage among men. He also led by almost 2-to-1 among voters under 34. Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 8 had Obama ahead 50 percent to 39 percent after holding only a 2 point lead a month earlier. Ten percent were undecided and the margin of error is 4.5 percent. Both men have high favorability ratings - Obama at 61 percent and McCain at 57 percent. Twenty-eight percent believe McCain is too old to be President and 40 percent say Obama is too inexperienced (50 percent reject that view). By 58 percent to 35 percent, voters want the next President to concentrate on getting U.S. troops home from Iraq rather than having the goal of winning the war. Two previous polls also had Obama ahead here. Democrats have carried the state in the last five elections, but by less than one point in 2004 and 2000. CQ Politics' Election Forecast rates Wisconsin "Leans Democratic."

• Pennsylvania: Obama is leading McCain 44 percent to 36 percent with 4 percent preferring other and 16 percent undecided in a Franklin & Marshall College poll conducted Aug. 4-10. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. The last time F & M polled on this, in February, McCain led by a point. Three-quarters of voters are certain about their choice and the rest still deciding. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 43 percent to 29 percent compared to McCain's 39 percent to 32 percent. Forty-six percent of voters said they would be concerned if McCain was elected and 50 percent said they would not. Forty-six percent cited his views on policy issues (most believe he would continue President Bush's economic and foreign policies) and 50 percent were not concerned. Fifty-one percent of voters said they would be concerned if Obama was elected , with 39 percent citing lack of experience, 30 percent citing his policy stands and 12 percent believing he was "wishy-washy" and trying to please everyone. As in most national polls, Obama tops McCain 55 percent to 32 percent for best understanding the concern of ordinary Americans while McCain wins out 60 percent to 22 percent on experience and 53 percent to 29 percent on handling the war on terrorism. Obama has a big lead among independents and women, and McCain has the edge with Protestants and fundamentalist Christians. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted July 23-29 had Obama ahead 49 percent to 42 percent with 8 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.7 percent. In its last poll, Obama had been up by 12 points. Nineteen percent of Obama supporters say they might yet change their minds compared to 24 percent for McCain. The biggest demographic gaps include Obama's 11 point lead among women, his 91 percent to 1 percent lead among blacks and his 23 point lead among voters under 34. Quinnipiac attributes McCain's gains on Obama to his energy policy "being more in line in Pennsylvania" and Obama's continued struggle among white blue collar workers. Strategic Vision conducted a poll July 25-27 that had Obama ahead 49 percent to 40 percent with 11 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 23 had Obama ahead 47 percent to 42 percent over McCain. The margin of error was 4 points. Four percent preferred "other" and 6 percent were undecided. Fifty-eight percent of voters viewed Obama favorably as did 61 percent for McCain. The Los Angeles Times recently had a piece on McCain's effort to make inroads in Pennsylvania by stressing his bipartisanship. This key state was won by Democrats in the last two elections, but by 4 points or less each time.

• Virginia: The polls here consistently agree that McCain and Obama are in a real horse-race in a state that has gone Republican in the last five elections. Two new polls today have the race statistically even. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Aug. 12 has Obama at 46 percent and McCain at 45 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 51 percent to 47 percent while McCain's is 61 percent to 36 percent. Rasmussen says McCain has the advantage among unaffiliated voters. An InsiderAdvantage poll also conducted Aug. 12 has McCain and Obama even at 43 percent each with 9 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 5 percent. InsiderAdvantage says, "The secret to Obama's ability to make Virginia a close race can be found in his ability to attract 40% of the white vote. While Virginia's black vote will likely be less than states such as Georgia or North Carolina, it is substantial enough that, when combined with such a strong showing among whites, it falls into the 'recipe' we see as necessary for Obama to win Southern states that have voted Republican in recent years." A SurveyUSA poll conducted Aug. 8-10 had Obama at 48 percent to 47 percent for McCain with 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. Obama had a 23 point lead among voters under 34 who make up 21 percent of the sample. McCain led among white voters (74 percent of the sample) by 58 percent to 37 percent while Obama led among blacks (19 percent of the sample) by 84 percent to 14 percent. Independents prefer McCain by 11 points. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 17-20 also had Obama in a statistical dead-heat with McCain, leading 46 percent to 44 percent, the same margin as last month. Ten percent are undecided and the margin of error is 2.7 percent. Unlike some other states, there is no gender gap here among either men or women. However, McCain leads 53 percent to 36 percent among white voters (73 percent of the sample) and Obama by 77 percent to 16 percent among blacks (20 percent of the sample). A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 16, has Obama and McCain tied at 46 percent each with 5 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is better at 64 percent to 36 percent, while Obama's is 52 percent to 47 percent. Virginians rank national security pretty high as an issue with 30 percent choosing that as the issue with which they are more concerned, while 42 percent named the economy. Voters put more importance on lowering gasoline prices than protecting the environment by 48 percent to 40 percent. Check Out the Washington Post story about Virginia's emergence as a key battleground state. Republicans won the last five elections here even in 1992 when independent candidate Ross Perot siphoned off votes from the first George Bush. The CQ Politics' Election Forecast says this state "Leans Republican."

• Nevada: This race has remained as close as it was in June. It's an important one because it is one of four - including Colorado, New Mexico and Florida - where Hispanic voters could be key. McCain leads Obama 45 percent to 42 percent with 8 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 11. That makes it a statistical tie given the 4 percent margin of error. McCain's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 58 percent to 42 percent, while Obama's is 47 percent to 51 percent. Voters here say that Afghanistan, not Iraq, is the U.S. main's concern. Republicans have won three of the last five elections here although each one since 1996 has been decided by four points or less.

• Florida: There have been a batch of polls for this state and they all pretty much add up to the same headline: Florida is up for grabs. McCain leads Obama 48 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 5 percent undecided in an InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Aug. 11. The margin of error is 5 points. Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 30-Aug.2 had McCain ahead 47 percent to 44 percent with 8 percent undecided. But that also was within the 3.5 percent margin of error. McCain enjoyed higher support in this poll among fellow Republicans at 84 percent than Obama does among Democrats at 76 percent. McCain led 55 percent to 36 percent among whites (67 percent of the sample), and the two were in a statistical tie among Hispanics (16 percent of the sample) with Obama ahead 48 percent to 45 percent. Obama led among blacks (14 percent of the sample) 80 percent to 15 percent. Obama had a 16 point advantage among voters under 29 (15 percent of the sample) while McCain ledby 23 points among voters over 65 (19 percent of the sample). McCain leads by 11 points among women. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Aug. 1-3 had McCain ahead 50 percent to 44 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.8 percent. McCain had a 7 point lead among women. Obama leads by almost 2-to-1 among voters under 34 who made up 17 percent of the sample, but McCain leads by at least 12 points in all other age groups. McCain leads 57 percent to 38 percent among white voters (73 percent of the sample) while Obama leads 84 percent to 16 percent among blacks (11 percent) and 48 percent to 42 percent among Hispanics (13 percent). Fifty-eight percent of voters cited the economy as the top issue in the campaign and they split evenly between McCain and Obama. Iraq was named by only 8 percent and Obama led McCain there by 23 points. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted July 23-29 had Obama leading 46 percent to 44 percent with 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.8 percent. While Floridians seemed split in this poll about which candidate has the better energy policy, they support by 60 percent to 33 percent President Bush's call for more offshore oil drilling, which McCain has also advocated. About one-fifth of Obama voters and 16 percent of McCain supporters said they might change their mind before the election. The differences between the two among men and women was not huge, but McCain leads among white voters 53 percent to 39 percent and Obama among black voters 89 percent to 2 percent. Obama's edge among independents has fallen from 10 points to 5 points. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 22 had Obama ahead of McCain 46 percent to 45 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain led by 7 points last month. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio was 51 percent to 47 percent and McCain's was 60 percent to 39 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted July 19-21 had McCain ahead of Obama 47 percent to 45 percent with 8 percent undecided, a difference within the 4 point margin of error. McCain had led by 5 last month. Republicans have carried the state in four of the last five elections including, of course, the hotly-contested outcome in 2000 where the state was awarded to George Bush by a hair. CQ Politics' Election Forecast has "No Clear Favorite here.

• Kansas: McCain leads Obama 52 percent to 37 percent with 6 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted August 11. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 66 percent to 33 percent while Obama's is 52 percent unfavorable to 48 percent favorable. Republicans have carried this state by double-digits in the last 5 elections except for 1992 when Ross Perot's candidacy siphoned votes from the first George Bush and reduced his margin of victory.

• Kentucky: McCain maintains his big lead over Obama, running ahead of him 55 percent to 37 percent with 4 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Aug. 9-11. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. McCain leads 60 percent to 33 percent among white voters. A Research 2000 poll conducted July 28-30 had McCain ahead 56 percent to 35 percent with a 4 point margin of error. In that poll, Obama got only 29 percent of the white vote, and the black vote in this state is small. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 29 showed a smaller but still significant McCain margin, with him leading 49 percent to 39 percent with 6 percent preferring "other" and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Last month, McCain led by 16 points. McCain leads among unaffiliated voters 45 percent to 38 percent, but that's down from a 14 point advantage. McCain's favorable-unfavorable ratio is 60 percent to 35 percent while Obama's is 48 percent to 50 percent. By more than 2-to-1, voters here put more priority in bringing down the price of gasoline than protecting the environment. They also believe by significant margins that Afghanistan, not Iraq, is the main front in the war on terror and is the biggest security threat to the U.S. Republicans have carried three of the five last elections with the exceptions being the two won by Bill Clinton. CQ Politics' political profile for Kentucky is "Safe Republican."

• Alaska: Obama leads McCain 45 percent to 40 percent with 10 percent undecided in a Hays Research Group poll conducted Aug. 6-7. The margin of error is 4.9 percent. However, if undecideds who say they are leaning one way or another are taken out, Obama's lead is 41 percent to 38 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 30 had McCain leading Obama 44 percent to 39 percent with 7 percent choosing "other" and 10 percent The margin of error was 4.5 percent. That's about the same as Rasmussen's July 21 poll. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable numbers are 65 percent to 34 percent while Obama's are 52 percent to 45 percent. See the Washington Post's story, "Alaskans for Obama: A Rare Democratic Push on the Last Frontier." Republicans have carried this state in the last five elections and did so by 20 points or more except for 1992 when independent Ross Perot siphoned off GOP votes.

• Iowa: After appearing to be widening his lead over McCain in July, Obama's lead over McCain is down to 46 percent to 41 percent with 6 percent choosing other and 7 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted August 7. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama's lead last month was 10 points. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable numbers are 54 percent to 43 percent while McCain's are 53 percent to 44 percent. Iowans say that Afghanistan, not Iraq, is the main threat to the U.S. Obama is running evenly with McCain among men and leads him 49 percent to 37 percent among women, down 6 points from July. Iowa has gone Democratic in 4 of the last 5 elections, but George Bush's victory in 2004 and Al Gore's win in 2000 were each by less than a point. CQ Politics' Election Forecast lists Iowa as "Leans Democratic."

• Oregon: Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 37 percent with 10 percent preferring other and 5 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 7.. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 56 percent to 39 percent while McCain's is 54 percent to 46 percent. While Oregonians don't believe Iraq is the central front of the war on terror, they split on whether Afghanistan is. But they do believe Afghanistan is the greater threat to the U.S. Although Rasmussen says McCain has never been closer to Obama than 6 points in its six polls of the state, A SurveyUSA poll conducted Aug. 2-4 had the race here much tighter, with Obama leading 48 percent to 45 percent with 5 percent preferring "other" and 2 percent undecided. That was within the 4 point margin of error. Obama had a 13 point advantage among women voters and independents prefer him by 6 points. The Democrats have carried the state in the last five elections although Al Gore won it in 2000 by less than half a point. CQ Politics' Election Forecast rates the Oregon contest as "Democrat Favored."

• Michigan: Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 40 percent with 5 percent preferring "other" and 8 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted August 7. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 54 percent to 45 percent while McCain's is 55 percent to 43 percent. A third of voters say McCain is too old to be President while a plurality - 47 percent - say Obama is too inexperienced. Voters are split fairly evenly on which candidate would be best for the domestic auto industry. A Public Policy Polling conducted July 23-27 had Obama leading McCain 46 percent to 43 percent - within the 3.3 percent margin of error. Ten percent were undecided. PPP's June poll had Obama up by 9 percent. The pollster attributed Obama's slippage to a decline in support among Republicans from 19 percent to 9 percent and a gain by McCain among whites, going from a small disadvantage to a 10 point lead. Twenty percent of independents are undecided and given that they comprise 27 percent of the sample, and Democrats and Republicans are nearly even at 37 percent and 34 percent respectively, they will obviously be a key to victory here. Obama had also slipped two points compared to last month to a 46 percent to 42 percent edge over McCain with 9 percent undecided in a Quinnipiac University/Washington Post/Wall Street Journal poll conducted July 14-22. The margin of error is 2.4 percent. (By contrast, a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 10 showed Obama gaining grown, with a 47 percent to 39 percent lead. His lead in June had been a statistically insignificant 3 points). Obama leads 12 points among women and McCain leads 5 points among men. Among white voters, McCain leads by 8 points and Obama leads among black voters by 86 points. Obama still has a 10 point advantage among voters under 34, but the size of his lead has dropped. Michigan has gone Democrat in the last five elections with the only Republican to win being the first George Bush in 1988. CQ Politics' Election Forecast rates this state "leans Democratic."

• Missouri: McCain leads Obama 48 percent to 41 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 7 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted August 7. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. This is a 2 point gain since the last Rasmussen poll. Both men are seen favorably by voters - Obama by 63 percent and McCain by 59 percent. Missourians put a higher priority on lowering gasoline prices than protecting the environment by 53 percent to 34 percent. They regard Afghanistan and not Iraq as the central front in the war on terror and principal threat to the U.S. by significant majorities. SurveyUSA poll conducted July 29-31 had McCain ahead 49 percent to 44 percent with 7 percent undecided and a 2.6 percent margin of error. McCain had an 8 point lead among men and a 15 point lead among whites (86 percent of the sample), while lagging Obama only slightly among women and by the usual huge margin among blacks (11 percent of the sample). The biggest age group difference was among those over 65 (about a fifth of the sample) where McCain led by 15 points. Independents preferred McCain by 21 points. The economy was the top issue for Missourians and Obama leads there by a bare 49 percent to 46 percent. A Research 2000 poll conducted July 7-10 for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch KMOV-TV had McCain ahead 48 percent to 43 percent with 9 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.5. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio among voters was 54 percent to 37 percent while McCain's was 49 percent to 43 percent. McCain had an 11 point lead among white voters while Obama has an overwhelming lead among blacks. Obama had a slim 4 point lead among independents. Among age groups, the only one in which either candidate has a big advantage is with voters under 29 where Obama is ahead by 15 points. Thirty-five percent of Missourians think McCain's age will be important to voters. The top five issues for voters (in this order) were the economy, Iraq, lowering gas prices, health care and terrorism. Of those, voters believed Obama would better deal with the economy, gas prices and health care by 16 points, 15 points and 23 points respectively, the two ran about even on Iraq, while McCain led Obama on the terrorism issue by 19 points. On Iraq, 46 percent said the U.S.'s next move should be to withdraw some troops and 27 percent said it should withdraw all the troops. Public Policy Polling Conducted a survey July 2-5 that had McCain leading 47 percent to 44 percent with 9 percent undecided and a 3.6 percent margin of error. Republicans have won 7 of the last 10 elections here with George Bush winning by about 7 points and 3 points in 2004 and 2000, and Clinton winning by about 6 in 1996 and about 11 in 1992.

• Massachusetts: Obama leads McCain 54 percent to 38 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted August 5. Last month, Obama led by 20 points in this poll. Sixty-two percent of voters see Obama favorably compared to 57 percent for McCain. Unlike most other states, voters believe protecting the environment has a higher priority than bringing down the cost of gasoline by 48 percent to 41 percent. They also believe that Afghanistan, not Iraq, is the central front of the war on terror and biggest threat to national security. A 7NEWS/Suffolk University poll conducted July 31-Aug.2 had Obama leading McCain by 47 percent to 38 percent with 13 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.9 percent. Suffolk's David Paleologos said "Obama's campaign has hit a soft patch this summer. With November just three months off, it still appears an Obama outcome in Massachusetts is not in question, but the margin certainly is." The Rasmussen Reports poll conducted June 30 had Obama ahead 53 percent to 33 percent with 10 percent undecided. A SurveyUSA poll conducted June 25-27 had Obama leading McCain 53 percent to 40 percent with 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. Obama has roughly a 2-to-1 lead among women. Massachusetts has gone Democratic in the five last elections and the only time the margin was less than double-digits was the 1988 George Bush-Michael Dukakis contest.

• Oregon: Obama has a narrow lead over John McCain, running ahead 48 percent to 45 percent with 5 percent preferring "other" and 2 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Aug. 2-4. That's within the 4 point margin of error. Obama has a 13 point advantage among women voters and independents prefer him by 6 points. Obama had a larger margin in a recent Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 14 which had him leading McCain 46 percent to 37 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and a sizable 13 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio was 62 percent to 37 percent and McCain's was 55 percent to 43 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted June 17-19 had the two in a statistical tie with Obama leading 48 percent to 45 percent with 7 percent undecided, according to a. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. McCain leads by 29 points among men and Obama is ahead among women by 29 points. The Democrats have carried the state in the last five elections although Al Gore won it in 2000 by less than half a point.

• New York: Obama is leading McCain by huge margins in all polls. He's ahead of McCain 57 percent to 36 percent with 6 percent undecided in a Quinnipiac University poll conducted July 31-Aug. 4. The margin of error is 2.7 percent. "In presidential politics, color New York State blue and throw away the crayons," said Quinnipiac's Maurice Carroll. A quarter of New Yorkers say they are less likely to vote for McCain because of his age. Voters are split evenly on whether to begin an immediate 18 month withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq or keep them there without a timetable until the situation stabilizes. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted June 30 had him ahead of McCain 60 percent to 29 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. Obama was viewed favorably by 67 percent of voters compared to 48 percent for McCain. Thirty-nine percent believed McCain is too old to be President while 52 percent reject the idea that Obama is too inexperienced. Asked whether the next President's goal should be getting U.S. troops out of Iraq or winning the war, getting the troops out was favored by a 62 percent to 27 percent margin. Democrats have carried all five of the last presidential elections here with the only one where a Republican was in shouting distance was 1988 when Michael Dukakis beat George Bush by about 4 points. CQ Politics' Election Forecast calls New York "Safe Democratic."

• Alabama: McCain leads Obama 47 percent to 34 percent with 16 percent undecided in a Capital Survey Research Center poll conducted July 29-31 and Aug. 4. the margin of error is 4.1 percent. That's the same margin McCain had last month. However, 44 percent believe Obama will be elected compared to 33 percent for McCain. McCain leads Obama 55 percent to 37 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 31. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain's lead in June was 15 points. McCain is viewed favorably by 61 percent of voters while Obama nets only 41 percent. Alabamans choose bringing down the price of gasoline as a priority over protecting the environment by 70 percent to 22 percent. They also agree with voters in most other states that Afghanistan, not Iraq, is the central front in the war on terror. Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections. CQ Politics Election Forecast conducted July 14 which had him leading McCain 46 percent to 37 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and a sizable 13 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio was 62 percent to 37 percent and McCain's was 55 percent to 43 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted June 17-19 had the two in a statistical tie with Obama leading 48 percent to 45 percent with 7 percent undecided, according to a. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. McCain leads by 29 points among men and Obama is ahead among women by 29 points. The Democrats have carried the state in the last five elections although Al Gore won it in 2000 by less than half a point. CQ Politics' Election Forecast calls Alabama "Safe Republican."

• Arizona: McCain has a comfortable 52 percent to 40 percent over Obama in his home state, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 30-31. Eight percent were undecided and the margin of error is 3.1 percent. McCain has double-digit leads among men and women. His support among his own party is also 11 points higher than Obama's is among Democrats. While Obama has an 8 point lead among Hispanics, they make up only 16 percent of the sample. McCain has double-digit leads in every age group except voters under 29. Rasmussen Reports shows an even bigger 52 percent to 36 percent lead in a poll conducted July 30. Five percent chose "other," 7 percent are undecided and the margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain has a 71 percent to 26 percent favorable-to-unfavorable number, while 55 percent view Obama unfavorably and 43 percent favorably. Voters favor making the energy priority reducing the price of gasoline over protecting the environment by 20 points. On the foreign front, they say Afghanistan, not Iraq, is the central front of the war on terror and principle threat to U.S. security. Republicans have carried Arizona in the last five elections.

• Connecticut: Obama continues to hold a big lead here, running ahead of Mccain by 51 percent to 36 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 31. Five percent choose "other," 9 percent are undecided and the margin of error is 4.5 percent. The last Rasmussen survey in late June gave Obama a 17 point lead. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 61 percent to 38 percent while McCain's is 51 percent to 47 percent. Given a choice between bringing down the price of gasoline or protecting the environment, Connecticut voters split in a statistical tie. They believe that Afghanistan, not Iraq, is the central front in the war on terror. A Quinnipiac University survey conducted June 26-29 had Obama ahead by 56 percent to 35 percent. Democrats have carried the state in four of the last five elections, and in the last three won by 10 points or more. CQ Politics' Election Forecast rates Connecticut "Democrat Favored."

• Oklahoma: McCain leads Obama 56 percent to 24 percent in the University of Tulsa'a Oklahoma Poll conducted July 19-23. Poll consultant Al Soltow said "Oklahomans have their minds made up and they aren't going to change come hell or high water, no matter what." He added that not only has the enthusiasm for Obama in other parts of the country not spread to the state, enthusiasm about the election in general is low. Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections. The CQ Politics' Election Forecast rates the race is this state as "Safe Republican."

• West Virginia: We don't have a poll yet, but this is a state that CQ Politics rates "Republican Favored." See CQ Politics' political profile .

• Montana: McCain has pulled even with Obama after trailing him five points at the beginning of July according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 29. McCain leads 45 percent to 44 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. But then this is a state the Republicans have carried in all the last five elections except 1992 when Independent Ross Perot spoiled things for the first George Bush. McCain's favorability-unfavorability ratio is 59 percent to 40 percent compared to Obama at 53 percent to 46 percent.CQ Politics' Election Forecast lists Montana as "Republican Favored."

• Wyoming: We don't yet have a poll for Wyoming but CQ Politics' Election Forecast calls this state "Safe Republican."

• Idaho: We don't yet have a poll for Idaho but CQ Politics' Election Forecast calls this state "Safe Republican."

• Nebraska: McCain leads Obama 50 percent to 32 percent with 8 percent preferring "other" and 10 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 28. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain's lead is slightly higher than it was in June. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 71 percent to 28 percent while Obama's is 45 percent to 54 percent. By an overwhelming 59 percent to 28 percent, Nebraskans put more priority on bringing down gasoline prices than protecting the environment. They also believe that Afghanistan and not Iraq is the central front of the war on terror and principal threat to U.S. security. Republicans have won all five of the last presidential elections here.

• California: Obama leads McCain 50 percent to 38 percent with 6 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 24. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Last month, Obama had led by 28 points in this survey. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 60 percent to 37 percent while McCain's is 54 percent to 42 percent. Californians put the energy priority on protecting the environment rather than bringing down the price of gasoline and oil by 52 percent to 42 percent. They believe by solid majorities that Afghanistan, and not Iraq, is the central front of the war on terror and is the biggest security threat to the U.S. A Field Poll poll conducted July 8-14 had Obama ahead 54 percent to 30 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 12 percent expressing "no opinion." The margin of error was 3.9 percent. That was a 3 point pick-up for Obama since May. The pollster says Obama has had success in bringing Hillary Clinton supporters into his fold. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 63 percent to 26 percent compared to McCain's 48 percent to 38 percent. Fifty-one percent of Obama supporters describe themselves as "very enthusiastic" about supporting him compared to only 17 percent of those backing McCain.. A June 23 Rasmussen Reports survey showed him leading 58 percent to 30 percent with 5 percent preferring "other" and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Obama is viewed favorably by 63 percent of Californians compared to 43 percent for McCain. Of the last five elections, Democrats easily won each since 1992, following Michael Dukakis' loss to the first George Bush in 1988.

• Minnesota: The new Quinnipiac University/Washington/Post poll comes more in line with a recent SurveyUSA poll. Last month, Quinnipiac had Obama ahead 54 percent to 37 percent, but in its survey conducted July 14-22 that big margin evaporated to a 46 percent to 42 percent Obama lead with 8 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.8 percent. Quinnipiac's Peter Brown says of the poll, "Obama and McCain are doing equally well in raiding the other party's base: Ten percent of 2004 Kerry voters favor McCain, while 13 percent of 2004 Bush backers are with Obama. In order to close the gap, McCain needs to do a little bit better winning back the Democrats who voted for Ronald Reagan and their children." SurveyUSA's June 13-16 poll poll had Obama and McCain in a dead heat with Obama leading 47 percent to 46 percent and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.3 percent. McCain led by 20 points among men and Obama led by 22 points among women. Independents backed McCain 51 percent to 40 percent. Democrats have won the last five elections here, but the margin in 2004 and 2004 was 3.5 percent or less. CQ Politics' Election Forecast for Minnesota calls the state "Leans Democratic."

• New Mexico: Obama is holding on to a 46 percent to 41 percent lead after being ahead here by 8 points last month in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 24. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Five percent prefer "other" and 9 percent are undecided. Obama and McCain are viewed favorably by 57 percent of voters. This is one of the handful of states where it's a close call between voters who think the priority should be on reducing the price of gasoline or protecting the environment. Reducing energy prices had a 45 percent to 43 percent edge. As in other states where Rasmussen asked this question, voters regard Afghanistan as the main threat on the terrorism and national security fronts, not Iraq. McCain does better than Obama in terms of support within his own party, drawing 82 percent of Republicans to Obama's 70 percent of Democrats. SurveyUSA poll conducted June 17-19 had Obama leading McCain 49 percent to 46 percent with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.3 percent. SurveyUSA found a big gender gap with McCain leading 60 percent to 36 percent among men and Obama ahead 62 percent to 32 percent among women. Hispanics, who made up 29 percent of the sample, favored Obama 63 percent to 34 percent. Independents favor Obama by 55 percent to 39 percent. Democrats have won three of the last five elections here. The last two elections here were settled by less than a one point margin: the Republicans won in 2004 and the Democrats in 2000. The CQ Politics' Election Forecast rates the New Mexico race "No Clear Favorite."

• New Hampshire: Several polls agree on the competitiveness of this race. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 23 has Obama ahead 47 percent to 41 percent with 5 percent preferring "other" and 8 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. The race is closer if "leaners" are counted in. Obama is viewed favorably by 57 percent of voters and McCain by 63 percent. Voters choose the priority of bringing down gasoline prices over protecting the environment by 52 percent to 37 percent. They see Afghanistan and not Iraq as the main front in the war on terror and principal threat to U.S. security. The University of New Hampshire's Granite State Poll conducted July 11-20 had Obama in a statistical tie with McCain, leading him 46 percent to 43 percent with 3 percent preferring another candidate and 8 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.3 percent. The poll notes that the state's voters are "very much in flux" with only 51 percent saying their minds are definitely made up. McCain and Obama are both viewed favorably by voters, 56 percent and 58 percent respectively. The gender gap is big in New Hampshire with McCain leading by 17 points among men and Obama ahead 20 points among women. An American Research Group survey conducted July 19-21 says Obama leads by a statistically insignificant 47 percent to 45 percent and 8 percent undecided. Last month, Obama had a 12 point lead in this poll. The margin of error is 4 points. Obama has a 7 point lead among independents who make up 41 percent of likely voters. ARG says there's been a shift in support among men and women voters with McCain now ahead by 9 points among men compared to a statistical tie with Obama in June, and Obama's lead among women has been cut in half from 22 points to 11 points. In the last five elections, Democrats have won three and the Republicans two. The CQ Politics' Election Forecast for New Hampshire is "No Clear Favorite."

• Vermont: We do not yet have a poll for Vermont, but CQ Politics rates the state "Safe Democrat." See our Election Forecast.

• Maryland: We don't have a poll for Maryland yet, but the CQ Politics' Election Forecast puts this state in the "Safe Democratic" column.

• Georgia: McCain is leading Obama 48 percent to 39 percent with 5 percent backing Libertarian candidate Bob Barr and 7 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 17. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. However, when Rasmussen included voters leaning to one candidate or another, former Georgia Rep. Barr's support fell to 1 percent and the McCain-Obama margin was 53 percent to 42 percent. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ration was 65 percent to 32 percent while Obama's was 51 percent unfavorable to 47 percent favorable. Echoing results from an earlier national poll by Rasmussen, Georgians say by a 41 percent to 27 percent margin that Afghanistan is the central front in the war on terror and that, by 47 percent to 30 percent, Iraq is not. That comports with Obama's argument on where the U.S. focus should be. By 54 percent to 33 percent, voters here place more importance on reducing gasoline prices than protecting the environment. An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted July 2 claimed that Obama and McCain were in a statistical tie, with McCain leading 46 percent to 44 percent, within the survey's 4.3 percent margin of error.

• New Jersey: Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 38 percent with 15 percent undecided in a Strategic Vision poll conducted July 11-13. The margin of error is 3 points. Voters said by a 49 percent to 43 percent margin that they favored withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq within 6 months. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 7 had Obama ahead 49 percent to 44 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 11 percent undecided in a. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Early last month, Obama had a 10 point lead and undecideds were only 6 percent in this poll. The lead is an even narrower 3 points if voters that are "leaning" one way or another are factored in. Rasmussen says one dramatic shift was among men voters where McCain gained 8 points and Obama lost 8 and now leads 54 percent to 34 percent. Unaffiliated voters prefer McCain 47 percent to 33 percent. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 59 percent to 38 percent while Obama's is 55 percent to 43 percent. Twenty-four percent say McCain is too old to be President while 46 percent say Obama is too inexperienced. Fifty-eight percent want the next President to concentrate on bring U.S. troops home from Iraq, while 34 percent say he should push to win the war. This poll is not even in the ballpark with one conducted June 17-23 by Fairleigh Dickinson University poll. That had Obama ahead 49 percent to 33 percent. Democrats have won the last four presidential elections here, and Republicans the six before that.

• Arkansas: McCain's lead over Obama has steadied at 47 percent to 37 percent after Obama last month closed the gap to 8 points, compared to the 24 points he was down in May before Hillary Clinton's withdrawal from the race. The latest numbers from a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 15 show 5 percent preferring "other" and 11 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain is viewed favorably by 59 percent of voters and unfavorably by 39 percent. Obama is viewed unfavorably by 53 percent and favorably by 45 percent. Asked what voters thought more important - protecting the environment or reducing the price of gas and oil - they chose reducing energy prices by 48 percent to 36 percent. Republicans have carried the state in three of the last five elections with the exception predictably being the two years in which favorite son Bill Clinton was the candidate.

• South Carolina: McCain leads Obama 45 percent to 39 percent with 10 percent undecided and 5 percent opting for Libertarian Bob Barr, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 9-11. The margin of error is 4.2 percent. PPP's Dean Debnam says that while Obama is likely to do better here than John Kerry in 2004 (which wouldn't be hard given that George Bush beat Kerry by about 17 percent), "it would take an exceptional turnout from young voters and black voters, as well as a lot of disaffected conservatives voting for Bob Barr," to make an Obama win possible. McCain leads Obama among white voters (68 percent of the sample) by 60 percent to 24 percent and Obama leads McCain among blacks (29 percent of the sample) 77 percent to 10 percent. Obama leads McCain among voters under 29 (17 percent of the sample) by 54 percent to 32 percent. Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections. CQ Politics' Election Forecast has South Carolina "Safe Republican."

• South Dakota: McCain and Obama are in a statistical tie in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 9. McCain leads 44 percent to 40 percent with 7 percent choosing other and 9 percent undecided, but the margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain is viewed favorably by 62 percent of voters compared to 54 percent for Obama. Twenty-six percent say McCain is too old to be President and 45 percent say Obama is too inexperienced. South Dakotans want the next President to make his first-term goal bring the troops home from Iraq over trying to win the war by a 51 percent to 41 percent margin. CQ Politics Election Forecast for South Dakota calls the state "Safe Republican."

• Louisiana: McCain leads Obama 54 percent to 34 percent with 6 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 9. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 66 percent to 32 percent while Obama is viewed unfavorably by 56 percent and favorably by 43 percent. McCain has come out for an end to the federal moratorium on offshore oil drilling and, in this coastal state, 75 percent support offshore drilling, with 66 percent believing it is very or somewhat unlikely expanded drilling will bring down the cost of gasoline. Twenty-two percent of voters believe McCain is too old to be President and 55 percent say Obama is too inexperienced. Fifty-three percent prefer that the next President make his first-term goal bring troops home from Iraq compared to 40 percent who want to win the war. A Southern Media & Opinion Research poll conducted June 26-28 had McCain leading Obama 52.2 percent to 35.5 percent with 12.3 percent undecided in. The margin of error ws 4 points. McCain was viewed favorably by 57.4 percent of voters and unfavorably by 38.3 percent. Obama was viewed unfavorably by 52.5 percent and favorably by 43 percent. Louisiana has gone Republican in three of the last five elections with the string broken in 1992 and 1996 by Bill Clinton.

• North Dakota: Obama and McCain are tied at 43 percent each in this state that has been solidly in the Republican column, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 8. Seven percent chose "other," 7 percent were undecided, and the margin of error was 4.5 percent. Obama is viewed favorably by 54 percent of voters and McCain by 59 percent. A quarter of voters think McCain is too old to be President and voters are closely split on whether Obama is too inexperienced, with 45 percent saying he is and 42 percent believing he isn't. Obama leads by 20 points among voters concerned mainly about the economy while McCain has a 37 point lead among those who say national security is the top issue. North Dakota has gone Republican in the last 10 elections and George Bush carried the state by 27 points in 2000 and 2004. CQ Politics' Election Forecast for North Dakota calls the state "Safe Republican."

• Illinois: Obama leads McCain in his home state 50 percent to 37 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 9 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 8. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Both Obama and McCain are viewed favorably by 60 percent of voters, although Obama's "very favorables" are higher. Thirty-one percent of voters think McCain is too old to be President. Thirty-eight percent think Obama is too inexperienced but that's offset by 54 percent who reject that idea. Voters think the next President's goal in Iraq in the next four years should be to bring U.S. troops home rather than win the war by a 56 percent to 35 percent margin. Democrats have carried the state in the last four elections. Illinois went Republican in the six before those. CQ Politics' Election Forecast has Illinois "Safe Democrat."

• Rhode Island: Obama leads McCain 55 percent to 31 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 9 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 1. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama is viewed favorably by 68 percent of voters compared to 52 percent for McCain. About two-thirds of voters say that bringing U.S. troops home from Iraq should be the top first-term priority for the next president while 27 percent say it should be winning the war. CQ Politics' Election Forecast rates Rhode Island "Safe Democratic."

• Mississippi: McCain leads Obama 50 percent to 44 percent with 3 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent undecided, in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted June 25. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 58 percent to 37 percent while Obama is viewed unfavorably by 51 percent and favorably by 48 percent. Twenty-eight percent believe McCain is too old to be President and 51 percent say Obama is too inexperienced. Asked whether it was more important for the next President to win the war in Iraq or bring the troops home by the end of his first term, 50 percent chose bringing the troops home compared to 46 percent who favor winning the war.

• Utah: McCain leads Obama 52 percent to 33 percent with 8 percent preferring "other" and 8 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted June 19. McCain is viewed favorably by 58 percent of voters and Obama unfavorably by 52 percent. Twenty-two percent believe McCain is too old for the Presidency while 47 percent believe Obama is too inexperienced (41 percent reject that idea). Fifty-one percent think the most important goal in Iraq for the next President is winning the war while 41 percent say it is getting the troops home. A Deseret News/KSL-TV poll conducted June 16-19 has McCain ahead of Obama by 57 percent to 29 percent, and adds that voters would be more likely to vote for McCain if he picks Mitt Romney as running mate, while they'd be less likely to vote for Obama if he picks Hillary Clinton.

• Indiana: One of the close states. Obama leads McCain 48 percent to 47 percent with 3 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted June 21-23. The margin of error is 4 points. The candidates run closely in most gender and age groups except among voters under 34 where Obama leads by 22 points. Republicans have acrried the state in the last five elections, and the only year where their margin of victory was less tahn 15 points was 1996 when independent Ross Perot got 10 percent of the vote. CQ Politics' Election Forecast Rates this state "Republican Favored."

• Maine: Obama leads McCain 55 percent to 33 percent with 6 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted June 16. Obama is viewed favorably by 62 percent of voters and McCain by 51 percent. Twenty-nine percent believe McCain is too old to be President while 53 percent reject the idea that Obama is too inexperienced (38 percent believe that he is). Sixty-two percent want the next President to make his goal bringing the troops home from Iraq in the next four years while 31 percent say winning the war should be the goal. CQ Politics' Election Forecast for Maine is "leans Democratic."

• Tennessee: McCain leads Obama 51 percent to 36 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 8 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted June 24. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Two months ago, while Obama was still in the midst of the Democratic nomination battle, McCain had led by 27 points. McCain is viewed favorably by 60 percent of voters and unfavorably by 37 percent. Fifty-five percent view Obama unfavorably compared to 42 percent who regard him favorably. Seventy-seven percent said they'd be willing to vote for a black candidate for President but a lesser 57 percent said the same was true for family, friends and co-workers. Forty-eight percent put a premium on the next President getting U.S. troops home from Iraq in the next four years compared to 44 percent who say the goal should be to win the war. Republicans won three of the last five elections here with the two losses to Bill Clinton and Al Gore in 1992 and 1996. CQ Politics' Election Forecast has Tennessee as "Republican Favored."

Colorado: Another poll confirms the closeness of the race here. McCain is leading Obama 44 percent to 41 percent with 3 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr, 2 percent for Ralph Nader and 8 percent undecided in a Rocky Mountain News/CBS 4 poll conducted Aug. 11-13. That result was within the poll's 4.38 percent margin of error. The survey found a "massive generational split" with Obama leading McCain 56 percent to 34 percent among voters under 35 years of age and McCain leading Obama 51 percent to 34 percent among those 65 and older. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Aug. 5-7 had Obama leading McCain 48 percent to 44 percent with 7 percent undecided in a. The margin of error was 3.2 percent. Obama was competitive with McCain among white voters, among whom the Republican leads by a bare 2 points, while holding a 51 percent to 36 percent among Hispanics who comprise 15 percent of the sample. PPP's Dean Debnam says that if Obama can "secure a draw" with McCain among whites, "he's almost definitely going to win the state." Obama also leads among independents, 50 percent to 35 percent. This is one of the states, along with Florida, Nevada and New Mexico, where Hispanics may be an important force. They make up 15 percent of the sample in the PPP poll and Obama leads among them 58 percent to 34 percent while running evenly with McCain among white voters. The state has gone Republican the last three elections (by less than 5 points in 2004), but the Obama camp thinks they can make it competitive.