Poll Tracker

• Montana: McCain has pulled even with Obama after trailing him five points at the beginning of July according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 29. McCain leads 45 percent to 44 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. But then this is a state the Republicans have carried in all the last five elections except 1992 when Independent Ross Perot spoiled things for the first George Bush. McCain's favorability-unfavorability ratio is 59 percent to 40 percent compared to Obama at 53 percent to 46 percent.

• Kentucky: McCain leads Obama 49 percent to 39 percent with 6 percent preferring "other" and 7 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 29. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Last month, McCain led by 16 points. McCain leads among unaffiliated voters 45 percent to 38 percent, but that's down from a 14 point advantage. McCain's favorable-unfavorable ratio is 60 percent to 35 percent while Obama's is 48 percent to 50 percent. By more than 2-to-1, voters here put more priority in bringing down the price of gasoline than protecting the environment. They also believe by significant margins that Afghanistan, not Iraq, is the main front in the war on terror and is the biggest security threat to the U.S. Republicans have carried three of the five last elections with the exceptions being the two won by Bill Clinton.

• Florida: All polls agree - this state is a toss-up right now. In the latest, Obama is in a statistical tie with McCain after holding a slight 4 point lead last month. He now leads 46 percent to 44 percent with 7 percent undecided in a Quinnipiac University poll conducted July 23-29. The margin of error is 2.8 percent. Quinnipiac's Peter Brown doesn't seem quite sure what accounts for the tightening of the race here and in another poll it released for Ohio, saying the factors could range from voters being more concerned with the cost of filling their gas tanks to "the normal let-down" after clinching the nomination. While Floridians seem split about which candidate has the better energy policy, they support by 60 percent to 33 percent President Bush's call for more offshore oil drilling, which McCain has also advocated. About one-fifth of Obama voters and 16 percent of McCain supporters say they might change their mind before the election. The differences between the two among men and women are not huge, but McCain leads among white voters 53 percent to 39 percent and Obama among black voters 89 percent to 2 percent. Obama's edge among independents has fallen from 10 points to 5 points.A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 22 had Obama ahead of McCain 46 percent to 45 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain led by 7points last month. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio was 51 percent to 47 percent and McCain's was 60 percent to 39 percent. Voters say by a 51 percent to 36 percent margin that bringing down gasoline prices is more important than protecting the environment. And, as in other states where Rasmussen has been asking these questions, they regard Afghanistan more than Iraq as the central front in the war on terror and as the greatest threat to national security. An American Research Group poll conducted July 19-21 had McCain ahead of Obama 47 percent to 45 percent with 8 percent undecided, a difference within the 4 point margin of error. McCain had led by 5 last month. McCain had somewhat more solid support among fellow Republicans (83 percent) than Obama does among Democrats (73 percent). Obama leads 50 percent to 42 percent among independents who make up 17 percent of the sample. Obama and McCain had been running closely among men last month, but McCain now leads by 8 points. McCain also has a 16 point lead among whites (71 percent of the sample), is within a point of Obama among Hispanics (16 percent of the sample) and trails Obama among blacks (13 percent) by 81 percent to 9 percent. Republicans have carried the state in four of the last five elections including, of course, the hotly-contested outcome in 2000 where the state was awarded to George Bush by a hair.

• Ohio: Obama's 6 point lead in Quinnipiac University's June poll is now a statistically insignificant 46 percent to 44 percent lead with 8 percent undecided in a new survey conducted July 23-29. The margin of error is 2.8 percent. About one-fifth of the supporters of each man say they might still change their minds before election day. The biggest gaps among demographic groups are voters under 34 who favor Obama by 22 points, and among blacks who back him 89 percent to 2 percent. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 21 had McCain leading Obama 46 percent to 40 percent with 7 percent choosing "other" and 7 percent undecided in a. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. McCain's lead was bigger if "leaners" are counted, Rasmussen said. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio was 57 percent to 39 percent compared to 50 percent to 46 percent for Obama. McCain's strength among Republicans was somewhat higher than Obama's among Democrats, 88 percent to 74 percent. Voters put more importance on reducing the price of gasoline over protecting the environment by 54 percent to 28 percent. They also believe that Afghanistan more than Iraq is the principal front in the war on terror and is the greatest threat to the U.S. A Public Policy Polling survey survey conducted July 17-20 had Obama ahead 48 percent to 40 percent with 12 percent undecided. Republicans have won three of the last five elections here, although George Bush's victory margins in the last two were by 3.5 points or less.

• Pennsylvania: Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 42 percent with 8 percent undecided in a Quinnipiac University poll conducted July 23-29. The margin of error is 2.7 percent. In its last poll, Obama had been up by 12 points. Nineteen percent of Obama supporters say they might yet change their minds compared to 24 percent for McCain. The biggest demographic gaps include Obama's 11 point lead among women, his 91 percent to 1 percent lead among blacks and his 23 point lead among voters under 34. Quinnipiac attributes McCain's gains on Obama to his energy policy "being more in line in Pennsylvania" and Obama's continued struggle among white blue collar workers. Strategic Vision conducted a poll July 25-27 that had Obama ahead 49 percent to 40 percent with 11 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 23 had Obama ahead 47 percent to 42 percent over McCain. The margin of error was 4 points. Four percent preferred "other" and 6 percent were undecided. Fifty-eight percent of voters viewed Obama favorably as did 61 percent for McCain. Voters put more importance on reducing the price of gasoline than on protecting the environment by 54 percent to 35 percent. They also believed that Afghanistan, and not Iraq, was the principal threat to the U.S. and the central front for the war on terror. This key state was won by Democrats in the last two elections, but by 4 points or less each time.

• Nebraska: McCain leads Obama 50 percent to 32 percent with 8 percent preferring "other" and 10 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 28. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain's lead is slightly higher than it was in June. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 71 percent to 28 percent while Obama's is 45 percent to 54 percent. By an overwhelming 59 percent to 28 percent, Nebraskans put more priority on bringing down gasoline prices than protecting the environment. They also believe that Afghanistan and not Iraq is the central front of the war on terror and principal threat to U.S. security. Republicans have won three of the last five elections here, by about 30 points or more in 2000 and 2004, and 20 points in 1988. Bill Clinton carried the state twice, but 1992 required the help of Independent Ross Perot siphoning votes from the first George Bush.

• Michigan: Yet another poll shows the race tightening in this state. Obama leads McCain 46 percent to 43 percent - within the 3.3 percent margin of error - in a survey conducted July 23-27 by Public Policy Polling. Ten percent are undecided. PPP's June poll had Obama up by 9 percent. The pollster attributes Obama's slippage to a decline in support among Republicans from 19 percent to 9 percent and a gain by McCain among whites, going from a small disadvantage to a 10 point lead. Twenty percent of independents are undecided and given that they comprise 27 percent of the sample, and Democrats and Republicans are nearly even at 37 percent and 34 percent respectively, they will obviously be a key to victory here. Obama had also slipped two points compared to last month to a 46 percent to 42 percent edge over McCain with 9 percent undecided in a Quinnipiac University/Washington/Post poll conducted July 14-22. The margin of error is 2.4 percent. (By contrast, a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 10 showed Obama gaining grown, with a 47 percent to 39 percent lead. His lead in June had been a statistically insignificant 3 points). Obama leads 12 points among women and McCain leads 5 points among men. Among white voters, McCain leads by 8 points and Obama leads among black voters by 86 points. Obama still has a 10 point advantage among voters under 34, but the size of his lead has dropped. Michigan has gone Democrat in the last five elections with the only Republican to win being the first George Bush in 1988.

• North Carolina: Obama continues to be competitive in a state that the Republicans

• have carried in the last five elections. McCain leads him by a statistically insignificant 47 percent to 44 percent with 6 percent undecided and 3 percent favoring Libertarian Bob Barr in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 23-27. The margin of error is 3.4 percent. In late June, PPP had McCain ahead by 4 points. McCain has a 9 point lead among men. Obama leads by 13 points among voters under 29 (13 percent of the sample) and McCain leads 27 percent among those over 65 (17 percent of the sample). He leads 57 percent to 34 percent among white voters (77 percent of the sample), counterbalancing Obama's huge 82 to 8 percent lead among black voters (20 percent of the sample). A Rasmussen Reports poll, conducted July 15, had McCain leading Obama 45 percent to 42 percent with 5 percent preferring "other" and 8 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable numbers were 57 percent to 40 percent while Obama's were 52 percent to 45 percent. As other surveys have previously, this one points to a problem Obama has had in getting his own party to line up behind him. McCain is supported by 85 percent of Republicans and 18 percent of Democrats while Obama draws 69 percent support among Democrats and 7 percent of Republicans. A SurveyUSA poll conducted July 12-14 showed McCain leading Obama 50 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.8 percent. Demographically, the biggest gaps were among men, who favor McCain by 20 points; voters over 65 who favor him by 26 points; whites, where McCain has a 2-to-1 lead and blacks, where Obama has a 93 percent to 6 percent lead. Blacks make up 19 percent of the sample. Obama's advantage here among those under 34 is only 8 points. McCain's support among Republicans (88 percent) is more solid than Obama's among Democrats (74 percent), with 22 percent of Democrats putting themselves in McCain's column.

• California: Obama leads McCain 50 percent to 38 percent with 6 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 24. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Last month, Obama had led by 28 points in this survey. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 60 percent to 37 percent while McCain's is 54 percent to 42 percent. Californians put the energy priority on protecting the environment rather than bringing down the price of gasoline and oil by 52 percent to 42 percent. They believe by solid majorities that Afghanistan, and not Iraq, is the central front of the war on terror and is the biggest security threat to the U.S. A Field Poll poll conducted July 8-14 had Obama ahead 54 percent to 30 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 12 percent expressing "no opinion." The margin of error was 3.9 percent. That was a 3 point pick-up for Obama since May. The pollster says Obama has had success in bringing Hillary Clinton supporters into his fold. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 63 percent to 26 percent compared to McCain's 48 percent to 38 percent. Fifty-one percent of Obama supporters describe themselves as "very enthusiastic" about supporting him compared to only 17 percent of those backing McCain.. A June 23 Rasmussen Reports survey showed him leading 58 percent to 30 percent with 5 percent preferring "other" and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Obama is viewed favorably by 63 percent of Californians compared to 43 percent for McCain. Of the last five elections, Democrats easily won each since 1992, following Michael Dukakis' loss to the first George Bush in 1988.

• • Colorado: McCain is leading Obama 46 percent to 44 percent with 7 percent undecided and a 2.6 percent margin of error in a Quinnipiac University/Washington/Post poll conducted July 14-22. Obama led by 5 points in this poll last month. Big gender gap here with Obama having an 11 point edge among women and McCain leading by 18 points among men. This is one of the states where Hispanics are a key voting bloc and Obama leads by 28 points. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 21 had Obama is leading McCain 49 percent to 42 percent. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. However, the contest falls within the margin of error if "leaners" are included. Last month, Obama led by 2 points. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable numbers are 52 percent to 48 percent and McCain's are 61 percent to 39 percent. In most states where Rasmussen has asked the question so far, voters care more about bringing down the price of gasoline than protecting the environment, but in Colorado they split about evenly. But like voters in other states, they see Afghanistan rather than Iraq as the main front in the war on terrorism and as the greatest threat to national security. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 9-10 by had Obama ahead of McCain 47 percent to 43 percent with 10 percent undecided and a 3 point margin of error. This is one of the states, along with Florida, Nevada and New Mexico, where Hispanics may be an important force. They make up 15 percent of the sample in the PPP poll and Obama leads among them 58 percent to 34 percent while running evenly with McCain among white voters. The state has gone Republican the last three elections (by less than 5 points in 2004), but the Obama camp thinks they can make it competitive.

• Minnesota: The new Quinnipiac University/Washington/Post poll comes more in line with a recent SurveyUSA poll. Last month, Quinnipiac had Obama ahead 54 percent to 37 percent, but in its survey conducted July 14-22 that big margin evaporated to a 46 percent to 42 percent Obama lead with 8 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.8 percent. Quinnipiac's Peter Brown says of the poll, "Obama and McCain are doing equally well in raiding the other party's base: Ten percent of 2004 Kerry voters favor McCain, while 13 percent of 2004 Bush backers are with Obama. In order to close the gap, McCain needs to do a little bit better winning back the Democrats who voted for Ronald Reagan and their children." SurveyUSA's June 13-16 poll poll had Obama and McCain in a dead heat with Obama leading 47 percent to 46 percent and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.3 percent. McCain led by 20 points among men and Obama led by 22 points among women. Independents backed McCain 51 percent to 40 percent. Democrats have won the last five elections here, but the margin in 2004 and 2004 was 3.5 percent or less.

• Wisconsin: Obama is leading McCain 50 percent to 39 percent with 9 percent undecided in a Quinnipiac University/Washington/Post poll conducted July 14-22. The margin of error is 3 percent. Obama has a 25 point lead among women voters compared to McCain's 6 point advantage among men. He also leads by almost 2-to-1 among voters under 34. Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 8 had Obama ahead 50 percent to 39 percent after holding only a 2 point lead a month earlier. Ten percent were undecided and the margin of error is 4.5 percent. Both men have high favorability ratings - Obama at 61 percent and McCain at 57 percent. Twenty-eight percent believe McCain is too old to be President and 40 percent say Obama is too inexperienced (50 percent reject that view). By 58 percent to 35 percent, voters want the next President to concentrate on getting U.S. troops home from Iraq rather than having the goal of winning the war. Two previous polls also had Obama ahead here. Democrats have carried the state in the last five elections, but by less than one point in 2004 and 2000.

• New Mexico: Obama is holding on to a 46 percent to 41 percent lead after being ahead here by 8 points last month in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 24. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Five percent prefer "other" and 9 percent are undecided. Obama and McCain are viewed favorably by 57 percent of voters. This is one of the handful of states where it's a close call between voters who think the priority should be on reducing the price of gasoline or protecting the environment. Reducing energy prices had a 45 percent to 43 percent edge. As in other states where Rasmussen asked this question, voters regard Afghanistan as the main threat on the terrorism and national security fronts, not Iraq. McCain does better than Obama in terms of support within his own party, drawing 82 percent of Republicans to Obama's 70 percent of Democrats. SurveyUSA poll conducted June 17-19 had Obama leading McCain 49 percent to 46 percent with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.3 percent. SurveyUSA found a big gender gap with McCain leading 60 percent to 36 percent among men and Obama ahead 62 percent to 32 percent among women. Hispanics, who made up 29 percent of the sample, favored Obama 63 percent to 34 percent. Independents favor Obama by 55 percent to 39 percent. Democrats have won three of the last five elections here. The last two elections here were settled by less than a one point margin: the Republicans won in 2004 and the Democrats in 2000.

• New Hampshire: Several polls agree on the competitiveness of this race. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 23 has Obama ahead 47 percent to 41 percent with 5 percent preferring "other" and 8 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. The race is closer if "leaners" are counted in. Obama is viewed favorably by 57 percent of voters and McCain by 63 percent. Voters choose the priority of bringing down gasoline prices over protecting the environment by 52 percent to 37 percent. They see Afghanistan and not Iraq as the main front in the war on terror and principal threat to U.S. security. The University of New Hampshire's Granite State Poll conducted July 11-20 had Obama in a statistical tie with McCain, leading him 46 percent to 43 percent with 3 percent preferring another candidate and 8 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.3 percent. The poll notes that the state's voters are "very much in flux" with only 51 percent saying their minds are definitely made up. McCain and Obama are both viewed favorably by voters, 56 percent and 58 percent respectively. The gender gap is big in New Hampshire with McCain leading by 17 points among men and Obama ahead 20 points among women. An American Research Group survey conducted July 19-21 says Obama leads by a statistically insignificant 47 percent to 45 percent and 8 percent undecided. Last month, Obama had a 12 point lead in this poll. The margin of error is 4 points. Obama has a 7 point lead among independents who make up 41 percent of likely voters. ARG says there's been a shift in support among men and women voters with McCain now ahead by 9 points among men compared to a statistical tie with Obama in June, and Obama's lead among women has been cut in half from 22 points to 11 points. In the last five elections, Democrats have won three and the Republicans two.

• Virginia: The polls here consistently agree that McCain and Obama are in a real horse-race in a state that has gone Republican in the last five elections. A Public Policy Polling survey onducted July 17-20 has Obama in a statistical dead-heat with McCain, leading 46 percent to 44 percent, the same margin as last month. Ten percent are undecided and the margin of error is 2.7 percent. Unlike some other states, there is no gender gap here among either men or women. However, McCain leads 53 percent to 36 percent among white voters (73 percent of the sample) and Obama by 77 percent to 16 percent among blacks (20 percent of the sample). A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 16, has Obama and McCain tied at 46 percent each with 5 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is better at 64 percent to 36 percent, while Obama's is 52 percent to 47 percent. Virginians rank national security pretty high as an issue with 30 percent choosing that as the issue with which they are more concerned, while 42 percent named the economy. Voters put more importance on lowering gasoline prices than protecting the environment by 48 percent to 40 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted June 20-22 had Obama and McCain in a statistical ties with Obama ahead 49 percent to 47 percent, within the 4 point margin of error. Republicans won the last five elections here even in 1992 when independent candidate Ross Perot siphoned off votes from the first George Bush.

Alaska: McCain leads Obama 46 percent to 40 percent with 7 percent choosing "other" and 7 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 21. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. That's a very slight uptick for McCain compared to June. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable numbers are 57 percent to 39 percent while Obama's are 50 percent to 46 percent. Voters say reducing the price of gasoline is more important than protecting the environment by 54 percent to 28 percent. Pluralities say that Afghanistan is the central front of the war on terror and the greater threat to the U.S. than Iraq.

• Georgia: McCain is leading Obama 48 percent to 39 percent with 5 percent backing Libertarian candidate Bob Barr and 7 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 17. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. However, when Rasmussen included voters leaning to one candidate or another, former Georgia Rep. Barr's support fell to 1 percent and the McCain-Obama margin was 53 percent to 42 percent. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ration was 65 percent to 32 percent while Obama's was 51 percent unfavorable to 47 percent favorable. Echoing results from an earlier national poll by Rasmussen, Georgians say by a 41 percent to 27 percent margin that Afghanistan is the central front in the war on terror and that, by 47 percent to 30 percent, Iraq is not. That comports with Obama's argument on where the U.S. focus should be. By 54 percent to 33 percent, voters here place more importance on reducing gasoline prices than protecting the environment. An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted July 2 claimed that Obama and McCain were in a statistical tie, with McCain leading 46 percent to 44 percent, within the survey's 4.3 percent margin of error.

• New Jersey: Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 38 percent with 15 percent undecided in a Strategic Vision poll conducted July 11-13. The margin of error is 3 points. Voters said by a 49 percent to 43 percent margin that they favored withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq within 6 months. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 7 had Obama ahead 49 percent to 44 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 11 percent undecided in a. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Early last month, Obama had a 10 point lead and undecideds were only 6 percent in this poll. The lead is an even narrower 3 points if voters that are "leaning" one way or another are factored in. Rasmussen says one dramatic shift was among men voters where McCain gained 8 points and Obama lost 8 and now leads 54 percent to 34 percent. Unaffiliated voters prefer McCain 47 percent to 33 percent. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 59 percent to 38 percent while Obama's is 55 percent to 43 percent. Twenty-four percent say McCain is too old to be President while 46 percent say Obama is too inexperienced. Fifty-eight percent want the next President to concentrate on bring U.S. troops home from Iraq, while 34 percent say he should push to win the war. This poll is not even in the ballpark with one conducted June 17-23 by Fairleigh Dickinson University poll. That had Obama ahead 49 percent to 33 percent. Democrats have won the last four presidential elections here, and Republicans the six before that.

• Nevada: This race has remained as close as it was in June. Obama leads McCain 42 percent to 40 percent with 8 percent choosing "other" and 10 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July16. That makes it a statistical tie given the 4.5 percent margin of error. McCain's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 60 percent to 39 percent, while Obama's is 52 percent to 47 percent. Voters here are evenly divided on the question of whether protecting the environment or lowering energy prices is more important. A Las Vegas Review-Journal poll conducted June 9-11 had McCain ahead 44 percent to 42 percent with 14 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. The Review-Journal said Nevada had voted for the winner of every presidential election since 1912, with the exception of 1976. Republicans have won four of the last five elections. The last three elections have been close with George Bush winning two, each by four points or less, and Bill Clinton winning by about one point in 1996.

• Arkansas: McCain's lead over Obama has steadied at 47 percent to 37 percent after Obama last month closed the gap to 8 points, compared to the 24 points he was down in May before Hillary Clinton's withdrawal from the race. The latest numbers from a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 15 show 5 percent preferring "other" and 11 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain is viewed favorably by 59 percent of voters and unfavorably by 39 percent. Obama is viewed unfavorably by 53 percent and favorably by 45 percent. Asked what voters thought more important - protecting the environment or reducing the price of gas and oil - they chose reducing energy prices by 48 percent to 36 percent. Republicans have carried the state in three of the last five elections with the exception predictably being the two years in which favorite son Bill Clinton was the candidate.

• Oregon: Obama leads McCain 46 percent to 37 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and a sizable 13 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 14. the margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 62 percent to 37 percent and McCain's is 55 percent to 43 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted June 17-19 had the two in a statistical tie with Obama leading 48 percent to 45 percent with 7 percent undecided, according to a. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. McCain leads by 29 points among men and Obama is ahead among women by 29 points. The Democrats have carried the state in the last five elections although Al Gore won it in 2000 by less than half a point.

• Washington State: Obama leads McCain 55 percent to 39 percent in a SurveyUSA poll conducted July 13-15. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. Obama has double-digit leads among female voters and voters in all age groups. Forty-two percent of voters name the economy as the top issue, 28 percent choose health care (which does not usually come in number two in most states), 17 percent say the environment and 14 percent say Iraq. These numbers are about the same as in SurveyUSA's June poll. A Rasmussen Reports pollconducted July 9 had Obama ahead 48 percent to 39 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 8 percent undecided in a. The margin of error ws 4.5 percent. Obama was viewed favorably by 59 percent of voters and McCain by 55 percent. Democrats have carried the state in the last 5 elections although Michael Dukakis defeated the first George Bush here in 1988 by less than 2 points.

• Kansas: McCain leads Obama 52 percent to 32 percent with 9 percent choosing "other" and 7 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 14. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 66 percent to 31 percent while Obama's is 62 percent unfavorable to 44 percent favorable. Republicans have carried this state by double-digits in the last 5 elections except for 1992 when Ross Perot's candidacy siphoned votes from the first George Bush and reduced his margin of victory.

• Iowa: Obama appears to be widening his lead over McCain, registering 48 percent to 38 percent against him in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 10. That lead has grown from 2 points in May to 7 points in June and now double-digits. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Seven percent of voters chose "other" and 7 percent were undecided. Both men are regarded favorably by more than half of voters. Iowans are evenly split when asked whether protecting the environment or reducing the price of gasoline is more important. A SurveyUSA poll conducted June 13-16 had Obama ahead 49 percent to 45 percent with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. McCain leads by 17 points among men and Obama leads by 15 points among women. Obama's lead among voters under 34 is 23 points. Iowa has gone Democratic in 4 of the last 5 elections, but George Bush's victory in 2004 and Al Gore's win in 2000 were each by less than a point.

• South Carolina: McCain leads Obama 45 percent to 39 percent with 10 percent undecided and 5 percent opting for Libertarian Bob Barr, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 9-11. The margin of error is 4.2 percent. PPP's Dean Debnam says that while Obama is likely to do better here than John Kerry in 2004 (which wouldn't be hard given that George Bush beat Kerry by about 17 percent), "it would take an exceptional turnout from young voters and black voters, as well as a lot of disaffected conservatives voting for Bob Barr," to make an Obama win possible. McCain leads Obama among white voters (68 percent of the sample) by 60 percent to 24 percent and Obama leads McCain among blacks (29 percent of the sample) 77 percent to 10 percent. Obama leads McCain among voters under 29 (17 percent of the sample) by 54 percent to 32 percent. Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections.

• South Dakota: McCain and Obama are in a statistical tie in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 9. McCain leads 44 percent to 40 percent with 7 percent choosing other and 9 percent undecided, but the margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain is viewed favorably by 62 percent of voters compared to 54 percent for Obama. Twenty-six percent say McCain is too old to be President and 45 percent say Obama is too inexperienced. South Dakotans want the next President to make his first-term goal bring the troops home from Iraq over trying to win the war by a 51 percent to 41 percent margin.

• Louisiana: McCain leads Obama 54 percent to 34 percent with 6 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 9. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 66 percent to 32 percent while Obama is viewed unfavorably by 56 percent and favorably by 43 percent. McCain has come out for an end to the federal moratorium on offshore oil drilling and, in this coastal state, 75 percent support offshore drilling, with 66 percent believing it is very or somewhat unlikely expanded drilling will bring down the cost of gasoline. Twenty-two percent of voters believe McCain is too old to be President and 55 percent say Obama is too inexperienced. Fifty-three percent prefer that the next President make his first-term goal bring troops home from Iraq compared to 40 percent who want to win the war. A Southern Media & Opinion Research poll conducted June 26-28 had McCain leading Obama 52.2 percent to 35.5 percent with 12.3 percent undecided in. The margin of error ws 4 points. McCain was viewed favorably by 57.4 percent of voters and unfavorably by 38.3 percent. Obama was viewed unfavorably by 52.5 percent and favorably by 43 percent. Louisiana has gone Republican in three of the last five elections with the string broken in 1992 and 1996 by Bill Clinton.

• Missouri: Obama leads McCain 48 percent to 43 percent with 9 percent undecided, according to a Research 2000 poll conducted for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch KMOV-TV. The poll was conducted July 7-10 and has a margin of error of 3.5 percent. This poll contrasts with two previous ones by other organizations that had McCain ahead, although by numbers close to or within the margins of error. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio among voters is 54 percent to 37 percent while McCain's is 49 percent to 43 percent. McCain has an 11 point lead among white voters while Obama has an overwhelming lead among blacks. Obama has a slim 4 point lead among independents. Among age groups, the only one in which either candidate has a big advantage is with voters under 29 where Obama is ahead by 15 points. Thirty-five percent of Missourians think McCain's age will be important to voters. The top five issues for voters (in this order) were the economy, Iraq, lowering gas prices, health care and terrorism. Of those, voters believed Obama would better deal with the economy, gas prices and health care by 16 points, 15 points and 23 points respectively, the two ran about even on Iraq, while McCain led Obama on the terrorism issue by 19 points. On Iraq, 46 percent said the U.S.'s next move should be to withdraw some troops and 27 percent said it should withdraw all the troops. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 7 had McCain ahead of Obama 47 percent to 42 percent with a 4.5 percent margin of error. Public Policy Polling Conducted a survey July 2-5 that had McCain leading 47 percent to 44 percent with 9 percent undecided and a 3.6 percent margin of error. Republicans have won 7 of the last 10 elections here with George Bush winning by about 7 points and 3 points in 2004 and 2000, and Clinton winning by about 6 in 1996 and about 11 in 1992.

• North Dakota: Obama and McCain are tied at 43 percent each in this state that has been solidly in the Republican column, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 8. Seven percent chose "other," 7 percent were undecided, and the margin of error was 4.5 percent. Obama is viewed favorably by 54 percent of voters and McCain by 59 percent. A quarter of voters think McCain is too old to be President and voters are closely split on whether Obama is too inexperienced, with 45 percent saying he is and 42 percent believing he isn't. Obama leads by 20 points among voters concerned mainly about the economy while McCain has a 37 point lead among those who say national security is the top issue. North Dakota has gone Republican in the last 10 elections and George Bush carried the state by 27 points in 2000 and 2004.

• Illinois: Obama leads McCain in his home state 50 percent to 37 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 9 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 8. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Both Obama and McCain are viewed favorably by 60 percent of voters, although Obama's "very favorables" are higher. Thirty-one percent of voters think McCain is too old to be President. Thirty-eight percent think Obama is too inexperienced but that's offset by 54 percent who reject that idea. Voters think the next President's goal in Iraq in the next four years should be to bring U.S. troops home rather than win the war by a 56 percent to 35 percent margin. Democrats have carried the state in the last four elections. Illinois went Republican in the six before those.

• Rhode Island: Obama leads McCain 55 percent to 31 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 9 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 1. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama is viewed favorably by 68 percent of voters compared to 52 percent for McCain. About two-thirds of voters say that bringing U.S. troops home from Iraq should be the top first-term priority for the next president while 27 percent say it should be winning the war.

• New York: Obama is leading McCain by huge margins in three polls. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted June 30 has him ahead of McCain 60 percent to 29 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. Obama is viewed favorably by 67 percent of voters compared to 48 percent for McCain. Thirty-nine percent believe McCain is too old to be President while 52 percent reject the idea that Obama is too inexperienced. Asked whether the next President's goal should be getting U.S. troops out of Iraq or winning the war, getting the troops out was favored by a 62 percent to 27 percent margin. On the subject of home state Sen. Hillary Clinton, 29 percent say she should be Obama's running mate, 37 percent say she should stay in the Senate and 23 percent say she ... should just "go away. A SurveyUSA poll conducted June 25-27 had Obama leading McCain 57 percent to 37 percent with 6 percent undecided in. Obama has a 66 percent to 26 percent lead among women and beats McCain handily in every age group. A Siena College poll conducted June 9-11 had Obama over McCain 51 percent to 33 percent.

• Connecticut: In sports, they'd call this contest a laugher based on two recent polls. Obama leads McCain by 56 percent to 35 percent in a Quinnipiac University survey conducted June 26-29. (Do you really need to know the margin of error?) Obama has a 16 point lead among independents, 13 percent among men, 18 percent among women, 13 percent among whites, and big leads in all age groups. Fifty-three percent of voters say Obama should not pick Hillary Clinton as a running mate although Democrats are somewhat more receptive, favoring the idea by 51 percent to 42 percent. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted June 30 has Obama ahead 52 percent to 35 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 8 percent undecided. Obama is regarded favorably by 62 percent of voters while McCain is viewed that way by 54 percent. Thirty-two percent believe McCain is too old to be President and voters say by a 53 percent to 41 percent margin that Obama has enough experience. Sixty-one percent want the next President's goal to be bringing U.S. troops home from Iraq in the next four years while 33 percent say he should win the war.

• Massachusetts: Obama outdistances McCain 53 percent to 33 percent with 4 percent chosing "other" and 10 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted June 30. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted June 25-27 had Obama leading McCain 53 percent to 40 percent with 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. Obama has roughly a 2-to-1 lead among women.

• Mississippi: McCain leads Obama 50 percent to 44 percent with 3 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent undecided, in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted June 25. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 58 percent to 37 percent while Obama is viewed unfavorably by 51 percent and favorably by 48 percent. Twenty-eight percent believe McCain is too old to be President and 51 percent say Obama is too inexperienced. Asked whether it was more important for the next President to win the war in Iraq or bring the troops home by the end of his first term, 50 percent chose bringing the troops home compared to 46 percent who favor winning the war.

• Ohio: Obama and McCain are in a horse race with Obama out in front by a nose, 48 percent to 46 percent, with 7 percent undecided, according to a SurveyUSA poll, conducted June 20-22. The margin of error is 4.2 percent. Obama leads by more than 2-to-1 among voters under 34. A survey conducted June 17 by Rasmussen Reports had McCain ahead of Obama 44 percent to 43 percent with 7 percent choosing "other" and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. McCain is regarded favorably by 58 percent of voters and Obama by 53 percent. Thirty-one percent believe McCain is too old to be President and 48 percent believe Obama is too inexperienced (a notion rejected by 44 percent). Fifty-three percent believe the next President's goal in Iraq should be foremost getting the troops home by the end of his first term, while 39 percent said it should be winning the war. Quinnipiac University had Obama ahead 48 percent to 42 percent in a June 9-16 poll. The margin of error was 2.6 percent.

• Utah: McCain leads Obama 52 percent to 33 percent with 8 percent preferring "other" and 8 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted June 19. McCain is viewed favorably by 58 percent of voters and Obama unfavorably by 52 percent. Twenty-two percent believe McCain is too old for the Presidency while 47 percent believe Obama is too inexperienced (41 percent reject that idea). Fifty-one percent think the most important goal in Iraq for the next President is winning the war while 41 percent say it is getting the troops home. A Deseret News/KSL-TV poll conducted June 16-19 has McCain ahead of Obama by 57 percent to 29 percent, and adds that voters would be more likely to vote for McCain if he picks Mitt Romney as running mate, while they'd be less likely to vote for Obama if he picks Hillary Clinton.

• Indiana: One of the close states. Obama leads McCain 48 percent to 47 percent with 3 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted June 21-23. The margin of error is 4 points. The candidates run closely in most gender and age groups except among voters under 34 where Obama leads by 22 points.

• New Hampshire: Obama has widened his lead over McCain here, running ahead of him by 50 percent to 39 percent with 5 percent preferring "other" and 5 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted June 18. Both men are viewed favorably by voters - Obama by 61 percent and McCain by 59 percent. Fifty-six percent put more importance on the next President bringing the troops home from Iraq than winning the war, a goal favored by 38 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted June 13-17 had Obama ahead of McCain 51 percent to 39 percent with 10 percent undecided.

• Maine: Obama leads McCain 55 percent to 33 percent with 6 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted June 16. Obama is viewed favorably by 62 percent of voters and McCain by 51 percent. Twenty-nine percent believe McCain is too old to be President while 53 percent reject the idea that Obama is too inexperienced (38 percent believe that he is). Sixty-two percent want the next President to make his goal bringing the troops home from Iraq in the next four years while 31 percent say winning the war should be the goal.

• Arizona: McCain leads Obama 38 percent to 28 percent with 34 percent undecided, according to a survey conducted by the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and KAET-TV released June 24. The margin of error is 5.2 percent. "There is an unusually high undecided vote but that is probably due to the fact that Democrats are still trying to sort out how they feel about the intense primary battle between Obama and Clinton," said poll director Bruce Merrill. McCain would gain 5 points on Obama if Hillary Clinton was put on the ticket.

• Tennessee: McCain leads Obama 51 percent to 36 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 8 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted June 24. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Two months ago, while Obama was still in the midst of the Democratic nomination battle, McCain had led by 27 points. McCain is viewed favorably by 60 percent of voters and unfavorably by 37 percent. Fifty-five percent view Obama unfavorably compared to 42 percent who regard him favorably. Seventy-seven percent said they'd be willing to vote for a black candidate for President but a lesser 57 percent said the same was true for family, friends and co-workers. Forty-eight percent put a premium on the next President getting U.S. troops home from Iraq in the next four years compared to 44 percent who say the goal should be to win the war.