Poll Tracker

Alaska: Democrat Mark Begich, the mayor of Anchorage, is leading Republican Ted Stevens 55.5 percent to 38.5 percent with 3.3 percent undecided in an Ivan Moore Research poll conducted for the Anchorage Press Aug. 9-12. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. Stevens leads his challenger in the Republican primary, Steve Cuddy, a businessman and former state legislator, by 3-to-1. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 30, had Begich leading 50 percent to 37 percent with 11 percent expressing a preference for "other' and 12 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Stevens was still viewed favorably by 50 percent of voters against 47 percent who viewed him unfavorably compared to Begich whose ratio was 63 percent to 32 percent. However, voters said Stevens should not resign by a 50 percent to 33 percent margin, with 17 percent not sure. Forty-six percent said Stevens is about as ethical as other politicians, 27 percent say he is less ethical and 20 percent more ethical. It also tested the possible fallout for Alaska's Republican Rep. Don Young, also the focus of ethics questions, and 44 percent said the Stevens story made it less likely they'd vote for Young. CQ Politics has changed its rating of this race from "Leans Republican" to "Leans Democrat."

Minnesota: Try to square these polls. In a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Aug. 13, Republican first-termer Norm Coleman is tied with Democrat Al Franken at 45 percent each with 5 percent preferring "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. That compares to a Quinnipiac University/Washington Post/ Wall Street Journal poll conducted July 14-22 showing Coleman with a 53 percent to 38 percent lead and 8 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.8 percent. Rasmussen does say that "things are beginning to lean in favor of" Coleman because if voters leaning towards one man or another are counted, he is ahead 49 percent to 46 percent. Quinnipiac's Peter Brown said in his poll that "Franken still faces an uphill battle in his quest to unseat Sen. Norm Coleman, with almost 20 percent of the voters in his own party voting for the Republican incumbent." A SurveyUSA poll conducted July 11-13 had Coleman ahead by 52 percent to 39 percent with 8 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. Check out our story, "Franken Stumbling in Minnesota Senate Race." CQ Politics changed the rating on this the race from "No Clear Favorite to "Leans Republican."

Colorado: Democrat Mark Udall leads former Republican Rep. Bob Schaffer 47 percent to 41 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 10 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug.13. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Udall had led by 4 points in last month's Rasmussen poll. Udall's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 53 percent to 39 percent while Schaffer's is 48 percent to 38 percent. A Rocky Mountain News/CBS 4 poll released today showed Udall leading 44 percent to 38 percent with Udall holding a 14 point edge among women voters. But thirty-nine percent of voters said they had not yet formed an opinion about Schaffer and 29 percent said the same of Udall. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Aug. 5-7 had Udall ahead 47 percent to 41 percent with 12 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.2 percent. Udall and Schaffer are vying to fill the seat of retiring GOP Sen. Wayne Allard. PPP's results in this key state paint a rosier picture for the Democrats - both in the Senate race and the John McCain-Barack Obama contest - than did a recent Quinnipiac University poll. PPP notes, thought, it is a slip of 3 points for Udall since its last survey. Udall ties Schaffer among white voters, but has a 16 point lead among Hispanics who made up 15 percent of the sample. The Quinnipiac University/Washington Post/ Wall Street Journal poll conducted July 14-22 had the race tied at 44 percent each with 11 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.6 percent. Udall had a 10 point lead in Quinnipiac's previous survey. CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Democrat."

Texas: Republican John Cornyn, seeking a second term, leads Democratic State Rep. Rick Noriega 44 percent to 31 percent with a quarter of voters expressing no preference in the race, according to a University of Texas-Austin poll conducted July 18-31. The margin of error is 3.77 percent. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 30 had Cornyn ahead 47 percent to 37 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 10 percent undecided. A month earlier, Cornyn had led by 13 points. Cornyn's favorable-to-unfavorable numbers are 55 percent to 31 percent while Noriega's are 45 percent to 33 percent. A Texas Lyceum poll conducted June 12-20, Cornyn and Noriega were within the 3.1 percent margin of error, with Cornyn ahead 38 percent to 36 percent with a large undecided figure of 24 percent. CQ Politics is rating this race "Republican Favored."

Kansas: Two-term Republican Roberts appears safely ahead of his Democratic challenger, Rep. Jim Slattery. A new Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 11 has Roberts ahead by a wide margin for the second straight month, leading 55 percent to 36 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. A June 11 survey by Rasmussen Reports had Roberts ahead 48 percent to 39 percent. Roberts is viewed favorably by 59 percent of voters while Slattery's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 45 percent to 46 percent. But perhaps the more challenging numbers for Slattery is that only 12 percent view him very favorably. The last Democrat to win a Senate seat in Kansas was George McGill who was elected in 1930 to replace Charles Curtis who had resigned to become Herbert Hoover's vice president, was re-elected in 1932 and served until 1939. CQ Politics rates this race "Republican Favored."

North Carolina: Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole's leads Democratic challenger Kay Hagan 46 percent to 41 percent with Libertarian Chris Cole drawing 7 percent and 5 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Aug. 9-11. This is the first time SurveyUSA included Cole in its poll, and it observed: "Hagan is flat, Dole is down. Cole gets 11% of male votes today, siphoning key votes Dole needs to win. Cole gets 12% of young votes today, siphoning key votes Hagan needs to win. Cole gets 9% of the white vote today, cutting Dole's lead from 30-plus points to 20 points." SurveyUSA had Dole 12 points ahead in a mid-July poll without Cole. Independents, who make up 18 percent of the sample, favor Dole over Hagan 42 percent to 33 percent with Cole getting 18 percent. Dole leads Hagan among white voters (75 percent of the sample) by 20 points while Hagan has better than a 3-to-1 advantage among blacks (19 percent of the sample). A Research 2000 poll conducted July 28-30 had Dole ahead 50 percent to 42 percent. The margin of error was 4 percent. In another survey by Public Policy Polling, conducted July 23-27, Dole slipped from a 14 point lead in June to a 49 percent to 40 percent lead with 7 percent undecided. Dole has a 13 point lead among men voters. Dole leads 55 percent to 35 percent among white voters (77 percent of the sample) while Hagan leads 63 percent to 25 percent among black voters (20 percent of the sample). Dole still enjoys an advantage in party backing with 84 percent of Republicans behind her (although that slipped by 6 points) while Hagan's number is 70 percent. PPP's Dean Debnam said a bump that Dole got in May when she went on the air "has largely dissipated" and with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee infusing more money into the race, the contest "could end up being closer than previously anticipated." As of now, CQ Politics rates the race as "Republican Favored."

Kentucky: Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell is leading Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford, a Louisville businessman, 52 percent to 40 percent with 8 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Aug. 9-11. The margin of error is 4 percent. McConnell leads among men and women voters by 11 and 9 points respectively, and enjoys margins ranging between 12 and 19 points among voters over 34. In a SurveyUSA poll conducted June 13-16, McConnell had a smaller 50 percent to 46 percent lead - right on the 4 point margin of error - with 4 percent undecided. The last poll we had for Kentucky was a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted June 25 which showed McConnell ahead 48 percent to 41 percent with 4 percent preferring "other" and 8 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. This was a turnaround from Rasmussen's previous poll. McConnell benefited from much stronger Republican support than Lunsford has among Democrats. CQ Politics rates this race "Republican Favored."

Oregon: Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley, the speaker of the state House, had inched ahead of two-term Republican Smith by 2 points last month (albeit, a statistically insignificant lead), but now Smith has jumped back in front 47 percent to 39 percent with 5 percent preferring "other" and 9 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 7. The margin of error is 4.5 points. Smith's favorable-to-unfavorable numbers are 55 percent to 48 percent while Merkley's are 42 percent to 45 percent with 13 percent not sure, indicating a disadvantage when it comes to name recognition. For more background on the race, see our story "Parties Debate Smith's Independence on the Campaign Trail" and the Washington Post's "On Obama's Coattails, an Uninvited Rider." CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Republican."

New Jersey: Democrat Frank Lautenberg leads former Republican Rep. Dick Zimmer 48 percent to 41 percent with 11 percent undecided in a survey of likely voters by Quinnipiac University conducted Aug. 4-10. The margin of error is 2.6 percent. Although the lead doesn't look insurmountable, Quinnipiac's Clay Richards said, "It's summer and voters aren't paying a lot of attention to this race. When they do, the incumbent's lead may get bigger - if voters don't get too concerned about the Senator's age." Those polled believed that Lautenberg was too old to serve another 6 years by a 55 percent to 39 percent margin, and that even included 50 percent of Democrats. But that doesn't appear to be helping Zimmer whose own problem is that 62 percent of voters don't know enough about him to form an opinion. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 4 had Lautenberg ahead 51 percent to 33 percent. That was up from his 13 point lead last month. Lautenberg leads 45 percent to 28 percent among unaffiliated voters and by 60 percent to 25 percent among women, while Zimmer leads 43 percent to 40 percent among men. Lautenberg's favorable-to-unfavorable numbers are 48 percent to 45 percent and Zimmer's are 37 percent to 41 percent. A Strategic Vision poll conducted July 11-13 had Lautenberg ahead 48 percent to 32 percent with 20 percent undecided. CQ Politics rates this race ["Democrat Favored."] (http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=senate-NJ)

Iowa: Democrat Tom Harkin, looking for a 5th term, leads businessman Christopher Reed 58 percent to 34 percent with 3 percent preferring "other" and 6 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 7. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. That's a 6 point gain for Harkin over July. He is viewed favorably by 66 percent of Iowans compared to 41 percent for Reed, who also suffers from the fact that 26 percent don't seem to know much or anything about him. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Democrat.

Virginia: In a race between former governors, Democrat Mark Warner continues to hold a big lead over Republican Jim Gilmore, running ahead of him 58 percent to 34 percent in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Aug. 8-10. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 17-20 had Warner ahead 57 percent to 32 percent with 12 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.7 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 16 had Warner ahead 57 percent to 34 percent with 7 percent. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. What seems somewhat odd in this survey is that Rasmussen says Warner's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 66 percent to 28 percent while Gilmore's is 47 percent to 44 percent. While Warner has 95 percent Democratic support and attracts 17 percent of Republicans, Gilmore's backing among Republicans is only 74 percent and he draws only 2 percent of Democrats. Warner's edge among unaffiliated voters is 52 percent to 27 percent. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted June 16 and 18 had Warner ahead 59 percent to 28 percent with a margin of error of 3.3 percent. This is the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Sen. John Warner. CQ Politics rates the race "Democrat Favored."

Michigan: Five-term Democrat Carl Levin leads Republican state Rep. Jack Hoogendyk 56 percent to 36 percent in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Aug. 7. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Levin has a 61 percent favorability rating to Hoogendyk's 41 percent, but the more significant number for the challenger is that 29 percent have no opinion. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted June 21-22 had Levin ahead 54 percent to 32 percent with 14 percent undecided. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Democrat.".

Massachusetts: Democratic Sen. John Kerry leads Jeff Beatty, whose biography describes him as a Special Forces veteran, FBI special agent and CIA operations officer, by 56 percent to 29 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted August 5. Kerry is viewed favorably by 59 percent of voters while Beatty's name recognition problem is underlined by the fact that 41 percent answer "not sure" on this question. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Democrat."

New Jersey: Democrat Frank Lautenberg leads former Republican Rep. Dick Zimmer 51 percent to 33 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 4. That's up from his 13 point lead last month. Lautenberg leads 45 percent to 28 percent among unaffiliated voters and by 60 percent to 25 percent among women, while Zimmer leads 43 percent to 40 percent among men. Lautenberg's favorable-to-unfavorable numbers are 48 percent to 45 percent and Zimmer's are 37 percent to 41 percent. A Strategic Vision poll conducted July 11-13 had Lautenberg ahead 48 percent to 32 percent with 20 percent undecided. CQ Politics rates this race "Democrat Favored."

Alabama: Two-term Republican Sen. Jeff Sessions leads Democrat Vivian Davis Figures by 58 percent to 31 percent in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 31. He had led by 24 points in June and 33 points in May. Sessions is viewed favorably by 64 percent of voters compared to 25 percent who see him in a negative light, while Figures has a 42 percent positive rating compared to 37 percent who see her unfavorably. CQ Politics rates the race "Republican Favored."

Kentucky: Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell has increased his lead over Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford, a Louisville businessman, increased his lead in one recent poll and slipped 1 point in another, although he still enjoys a comfortable margin. A Research 2000 survey conducted July 28-30 had McConnell ahead 49 percent to 38 percent with a 4 point margin of error. That's a drop of one point since its last survey. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 29 had McConnell increasing his advantage by 7 points since June, running ahead now by 50 percent to 38 percent with 4 percent preferring "other" and 8 percent undecided. McConnell was viewed favorably in the Rasmussen poll by 55 percent of voters compared to 35 percent who see him negatively, while Lunsford is viewed positively by 42 percent of voters compared to 45 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. In May, McConnell had been down 5 points. In a SurveyUSA poll conducted June 13-16, McConnell had a smaller 50 percent to 46 percent lead - right on the 4 point margin of error - with 4 percent undecided. McConnell benefited from much stronger Republican support than Lunsford has among Democrats. CQ Politics rates this race "Republican Favored."

Idaho: Republican Jim Risch, the state's lieutenant governor, leads former Democratic Rep. Larry LaRocco 42 percent to 32 percent with 17 percent undecided in a Research 2000 poll conducted July 28-30. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Independent conservative Rex Rammell polls 5 points. This is the race to replace Republican Sen. Larry Craig who announced his retirement after being charged by police with disorderly conduct for allegedly soliciting sex in a men's room. Both candidates have about the same favorability and both face a significant name recognition problem. Twenty-one percent of voters are undecided and right now Risch has only 64 percent support in his party and may lose some votes to Rammell. But CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Republican" because of the state's strong conservative tradition.

Nebraska: Republican Mike Johanns, a former governor and Secretary of Agriculture in the Bush administration, leads Democrat Scott Kleeb, a rancher and professor, by 56 percent to 31 percent in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 28. Johanns is regarded favorably by 70 percent of voters compared to 48 percent for Kleeb. Johanns is hoping to succeed fellow Republican Chuck Hagel, who is retiring. CQ Politics rates the race "Republican Favored."

Mississippi: Roger Wicker, appointed to fill out the term of retired Sen. Trent Lott, has opened a modest lead over former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, moving from a dead heat last month to a 48 percent to 42 percent advantage in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 28. Three percent prefer someone "other," 8 percent are undecided and the margin of error is 4.5 percent. If "leaners" are counted, Wicker's lead is a little bigger. Wicker's favorable-to-unfavorable numbers are 61 percent to 29 percent while Musgrove's are 51 percent to 41 percent. Wicker has a 2-to-1 advantage among unaffiliated voters. He gets 72 percent of the white vote while Musgrove polls 83 percent of black voters. Thad Cochran, seeking a sixth term, was way out in front in his race against former state legislator Erik Fleming 59 percent to 32 percent in Rasmussen's June poll. CQ Politics rates Cochran's race "Safe Republican" and the Wicker-Musgrove contest as "No Clear Favorite."

New Mexico: Democrats appear headed for a pick-up here with Rep. Tom Udall running ahead of Rep. Steven Pearce (60-36 percent) for the seat held by retiring GOP Sen. Pete V. Domenici. Udall leads 59 percent to 34 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 24. Udall enjoys a 66 percent favorable rating compared to 46 percent for Pearce. Domenici had held this seat since 1973.

New Hampshire: A new poll is out today that is substantially different than the one released yesterday by American Research Group which showed a big lead for Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, the former governor, over Republican incumbent John Sununu. The University of New Hampshire's Granite State poll, conducted July 11-20, has Shaheen's lead shrinking from 17 points in February and 8 points in April to a 46 percent to 42 percent margin with 10 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. The poll says 72 percent of likely voters are still mulling who their definite final choice might be. Shaheen's favorability ratings have been falling and Sununu's rising, with her favorability-to-unfavorability ratio now at 53 percent to 31 percent and Sununu's at 52 percent to 33 percent. The American Research Group survey conducted July 17-19 had Shaheen ahead 58 percent to 36 percent with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. According to this poll, Shaheen has increased her overall lead since ARG's June poll and also has made further inroads into Sununu's Republican base. Shaheen has 94 percent support among Democrats and attracts 26 percent of Republicans while Sununu has only 70 percent support among fellow Republicans and no traction with Democrats. Asked about the difference between the polls, ARG's Dick Bennett said: "We found that Shaheen captures over 90% of the Obama vote while Sununu captures just over two-thirds of the McCain vote. Undeclared (independent) women over 50 prefer McCain over Obama, but they did not stick with Sununu...Our interviewers report that voters angry at Congress and Sununu, without much of any visible campaign, is being punished at the moment." Check out the New York Times piece on this state's shifting politics. CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Democrat."

Georgia: First term Republican Saxby Chambliss holds big leads over either of the two Democrats still in the race to challenge him, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 17. DeKalb County chief executive officer Vernon Jones and Atlanta attorney, former legislator Jim Martin were the two top finishers in a five-man Democratic field this month and will compete in a runoff Aug. 5. Chambliss leads Jones 59 percent to 29 percent and Martin by 51 percent to 40 percent. Chambliss is viewed favorably by 61 percent of voters compared to 30 percent for Jones and 37 percent for Martin. CQ Politics rates this race Republican Favored.

South Dakota: Two-term Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson leads Republican State Rep. Joel Dykstra 60 percent to 35 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 9. Johnson, who has recovered from a near-fatal brain hemorrhage in late 2006, is viewed favorably by 69 percent of voters while the most important number Dykstra's favorability rating is the 22 percent who don't know enough to have an opinion. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Democrat."

Louisiana: Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu, seeking a third term, holds a modest but steady 49 percent to 44 percent lead over Republican challenger John Kennedy in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 9. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. In June, Rasmussen had these two within the margin of error is each other with Landrieu leading by 3 points. Both candidates are regarded favorably by more than half of voters. This seat has been considered one of the few Democratic ones to be vulnerable. A Southern Media & Opinion Research survey conducted June 26-28. Undecideds are 13.9 percent and the margin of error is 4 percent. Landrieu is viewed favorably by 61 percent of voters and unfavorably by 34 percent. Kennedy is also viewed favorably by 61 percent, unfavorably by 10.5 percent while 28.5 percent did not know or were unfamiliar with him. CQ Politics currently rates the race "Leans Democratic."

South Carolina: First term Republican Lindsey Graham appears to have an easy ride to re-election, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 9-11. Graham leads Democrat Bob Conley, a commercial pilot, by 54 percent to 32 percent. Former Myrtle Beach Mayor Mark McBride had mounted a petition drive to get on the ballot as a more conservative alternative to Graham, but he dropped that effort July 15. However, Graham led him, too, by 52 percent to 21 percent. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Republican."

Illinois: Two-term Democrat Richard Durbin leads Republican Steven Sauerberg, a physician, 61 percent to 27 percent with 11 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 8. Durbin is viewed favorably by 63 percent of voters while Sauerberg's problem is that 36 percent described themselves as "not sure," meaning they don't know much about him. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Democrat."

Kentucky: Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell is leading Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford, a Louisville businessman, 48 percent to 41 percent with 4 percent preferring "other" and 8 percent undecided in a June 25 Rasmussen Reports survey. McConnell is viewed favorably by 56 percent of voters compared to 40 percent who see him negatively, while Lunsford is viewed positively by 43 percent of voters compared to 46 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. This is a turnaround from Rasmussen's last poll. In a SurveyUSA poll conducted June 13-16, McConnell had a smaller 50 percent to 46 percent lead - right on the 4 point margin of error - with 4 percent undecided. McConnell benefited from much stronger Republican support than Lunsford has among Democrats. CQ Politics rates this race "Republican Favored."