Poll Tracker

In the GW Battleground poll, McCain's support includes 36 percent who say they will definitely vote for him, 9 percent who say probably, and 2 percent who lean towards him. Obama's definite support is 37 percent, with 7 percent in the "probably category" and 1 percent leaning.

Despite the overall race figures, voters believe Obama will win the election by 51 percent to 34 percent. Tarrance's Republican analysis, titled "Not So Fast, Mr. Obama," says "This attitude is one that has permeated the pundits, the media and some critics contend even the Democratic nominee's campaign. But it is not true."

The Lake group's Democratic analysis did not appear to argue with that. While noting that voter's "appetite for change remains intense and palpable" especially given the economic downturn, Lake noted that a "continued and largely unanswered negative campaign on the part of McCain" had taken its toll, and that Obama is also suffering from a significant shift among independents where he had a 14 point lead in May but now trails McCain by 10 points.

Other findings in the Battleground survey:

• When asked who voters thought has been running a more negative campaign, 50 percent believed strongly or somewhat that McCain was doing so, 21 percent said that of Obama, 10 percent said both and 9 percent said neither.
• Twenty-seven percent of voters said they did not feel comfortable with a President who would be 72 years old.
• On the characteristics of each candidate, McCain dominated Obama 52 percent to 37 percent on the question of which one was a strong leader. Obama led McCain by 13 points or more on the criteria of being an independent voice, would unite the country and represented middle class values.
• Obama led McCain 48 percent to 39 percent when it came to who voters thought would create jobs and improve the economy, and by 54 percent to 35 percent on handling the health care issue. Voters thought McCain would do a better job dealing with Iraq by 54 percent to 41 percent.
• Voters believed the Iraq war was not worth fighting by 51 percent to 42 percent. Fifty-six percent say the situation there has improved, 24 percent believe it has stayed the same and 15 percent said it had become worse. Twenty-three percent want an immediate withdrawal of U.S. troops, 31 percent want a timetable set for withdrawal and 44 percent want the troops to stay until the situation becomes stable.

The Reuters/Zogby poll attributes the turnaround in its numbers in part to Obama's loss of support since July in key constituencies. His support among Democrats dropped from 83 percent to 74 percent and he slipped by between 8 points to 12 points among women, Catholics, voters under 35, college graduates, urban dwellers, those with incomes under $50,000 and Southerners.

John Zogby agreed with Lake's analysis and that of the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg pollsters on the effect of McCain going on the offensive against Obama, including during the time when the presumed Democratic nominee was vacationing in Hawaii. "Since Obama returned from his overseas trip, it seems like McCain has thrown all the punches. Clearly, the blows have landed," Zogby said.

Obama's struggles were also reflected in the latest state polls that have come out today and yesterday. (See our round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups).

While polls in each state vary and even sometimes disagree, this is a summary of what the latest are saying:

• Missouri: McCain has moved from a 3 point lead in July in a Public Policy Polling survey to a 50 percent to 40 percent advantage.
• Ohio: Rasmussen Reports has McCain ahead 45 percent to 41 percent. McCain is viewed favorably by 62 percent of voters while Obama is viewed unfavorably by 51 percent. Obama's party support is lower than McCain's and McCain draws more Democratic votes than Obama does from Republicans.
• North Carolina: McCain leads 46 percent to 40 percent in a Civitas Institute poll, up 3 points from July. He has moved from being even with Obama at one point among independents to being 18 points ahead of him.
• Pennsylvania: Obama still leads here, by 46 percent to 41 percent in a Susquehanna Polling & Research Survey. But the pollster says Obama's support has shown no movement since its last survey in May.
• Florida: This is still a toss-up. McCain leads Obama 46 percent to 43 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll, within the survey's 4.5 percent margin of error. Last month, it was Obama up by a point.
• Iowa: This was one state that seemed to hold brighter news in the most recent poll. Obama leads 48 percent to 42.9 percent in a university of Iowa Hawkeye Poll. Poll director David Redlawsk says, "The race in Iowa, while relatively close, appears to be moving in Obama's direction."
• Indiana: McCain is leading 50 percent to 44 percent in the most recent SurveyUSA poll.
• Minnesota:Obama is in a statistical tie with McCain, leading 47 percent to 45 percent , within the 3.,8 percent margin of error.