There's a lot of talk this election season about how changing demographics are turning states into purple from their traditional red and blue. Public Policy Polling took a closer look at this phenomenon in North Carolina by comparing the preferences of native North Carolinians (54 percent) to non-natives (46 percent).

PPP's most recent overall survey, conducted Aug. 20-23, had McCain with a statistically-insignificant 45 percent to 42 percent margin. Its look at the native/non-native divide, conducted during the same period, had McCain leading 48 percent to 40 percent among natives, but behind Obama 46 percent to 41 percent among non-natives. Obama has more support among non-native Democrats (77 percent) than he does among native ones (65 percent).

When it comes to independents, who make up 10 percent of voters, newcomers favor Obama 50 percent to 32 percent while natives favor McCain 47 percent to 22 percent.

The Senate race follows the same pattern. Overall, PPP has Democrat Kay Hagan leading incumbent Elizabeth Dole 42 percent to 39 percent (the margin of error is 3.3 percent), but Dole leads Hagan by that same margin among natives, while Hagan leads among non-natives cent to 35 percent.

Barack Obama is leading John McCain 48 percent to 42 percent with 4 percent favoring neither and 6 percent expressing no opinion in Gallup's daily tracking poll conducted Aug. 28-30. The margin of error is 2 percent. The interviewing period included both the immediate reaction to Obama's acceptance speech and John McCain's choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate.

Barack Obama did better than the 2000 and 2004 presidential candidates with his acceptance speech, with 58 percent of Americans giving it positive marks and, among them, 35 percent calling it "excellent," according to a Gallup survey conducted Aug. 29, the night after the speech.

While 62 percent of Democrats called it excellent in addition to another 21 percent who labeled it good, only 12 percent of Republicans said it was excellent and 25 percent said it was good. Fifty-two percent of independents called it excellent or good.

Rasmussen Reports conducted a quick poll on John McCain's choice for running mate, Sarah Palin, that says she made a "good first impression." Rasmussen reported yesterday that 67 percent of Americans din't know enough about her to form an opinion, but Scott Rasmussen says that more respondents were able to express their views in this poll because it was conducted after the announcement when there was more news about her.

The findings:

• Likely voters say by 40 percent to 32 percent that McCain made the right choice and 28 percent were not sure.
• Thirty-five percent said the choice of Palin made it more likely they would vote for McCain, 33 percent less likely and 28 percent said it would have no impact on their decision.
• Forty-four percent say Palin is not ready to be President, 29 percent believe she is and 26 percent were not sure.
• Thirty-seven percent regard Palin as very conservative, 32 percent say "somewhat conservative, 13 percent say moderate and 16 percent are not sure.
• Palin is regarded favorably by 53 percent of voters, unfavorably by 26 percent and 18 percent are not familiar with her.

Now that John McCain has chosen a woman as running mate, Gallup reviews the bidding on the gender gap base on tracking poll data for the month. McCain leads among men voters by 48 percent to 42 percent while Obama has the advantage among women, 49 percent to 39 percent. Among independent white voters (Gallup says there is little difference on gender among blacks and Hispanics), McCain leads 56 percent to 35 percent among men while Obama leads by only 46 percent to 42 percent among women.

The Democratic convention has bounced Barack Obama to an 8 point lead over John McCain in Gallup's daily tracking poll conducted Aug. 26-28. Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 41 percent with 1 percent preferring "other," 4 percent "neither," and 5 percent having "no opinion." The margin of error is 2 percent. Obama's largest lead in the tracking poll at any point since he clinched the nomination had been 9 points in late July. Going into the convention, he was polling 45 percent and was essentially tied with McCain. How long the predictable bounce will last is subject to some different factors this year: the combination of today's announcement of John McCain's running mate on the heels of the Democratic Convention and the fact that the GOP convention starts so soon after the Democrats.

The themes and issues Barack Obama hits in his acceptance speech tonight should be a good guide to what he and his campaign feels it still has to accomplish, and while a speech to a stadium packed with 75,000 partisans may not be the place to get down in the weeds about his policy positions, a Pew Research Center poll suggests he has work to do in the coming weeks in building public awareness of where he stands.

The survey says Americans know more about Obama's personal story than they do about those policy positions. Sixty-two percent know a lot or fair amount about his life, but when it comes to his foreign policy beliefs, 48 percent say they know a lot or fair amount about them, and 56 percent say they same about his economic positions.

John McCain's life story is about as well known as Obama's. He fares somewhat better than Obama on public awareness of his foreign policy stands (54 percent) and just below Obama about knowledge of his economic positions (also, 54 percent).

Looking just at independents, 55 percent say they know a lot or a fair amount about McCain's foreign policy positions compared to 42 percent for Obama. Obama and McCain come out about the same on awareness of independents about their economic positions.

Our latest round-up of state match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates Ohio, California and Idaho. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.

• Ohio: Every new poll confirms that this is a real toss-up. Obama and McCain are tied at 40 percent with 20 percent undecided in an Akron Buckeye Pollconducted July 17-Aug. 17. Obama's "strong" support was 22 percent compared to McCain's 14 percent. McCain does better as far as support from fellow Republicans with 85 percent compared to Obama's 72 percent support among Democrats. Obama was backed by just 45 percent of those who had voted for Hillary Clinton in the state's primary. McCain had the backing of 70 percent of those who had voted for his primary rivals. In a finding similar to some national polls, Obama's own level of support is lower than the 64 percent of voters who say, generically, they want to see a Democrat in the White House. And again like national polls, this one showed an enthusiasm gap with Obama backers rating their enthusiasm for him 7.2 on a 10 point scale while McCain scored 5.7 among his supporters. McCain outpolls Obama 73 percent to 21 percent when rated on experience, and by large margins when it comes to handling the Iraq war and terrorism. There are no areas, including domestic, where Obama has more than modest leads over McCain. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted Aug. 17-24 had Obama statistically tied with McCain at 44 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 11 percent undecided in a. The margin of error was 2.8 percent. Generically, Ohio voters wanted a Democrat in the White House by 44 percent to 35 percent. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio was 50 percent to 34 percent compared to Obama's 49 percent to 32 percent. The gender gap was big here with Obama ahead among women by 14 points and McCain leading among men by 13. McCain led among white voters by 9 percent while Obama had a huge 89 percent to 3 percent among black voters. Obama had modest or statistically insignificant leads over McCain on handling the economy and energy crisis, while McCain posts double-digit leads on handling issues like terrorism, Russia and a Mideast crisis. A Columbus Dispatch poll conducted Aug. 12-21 had McCain leading 42 percent to 41 percent with 1 percent each for Libertarian Bob Barr and Ralph Nader, and 15 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.2 percent. McCain was doing better among fellow Republicans than Obama was among Democrats. Eight-six percent of Republicans backed McCain while 74 percent of Democrats were supporting Obama. McCain was also drawing support from Democrats who backed Hillary Clinton in the state's March primary. Republicans have won Ohio in three of the last five elections, but the margin of victory in 2000 and 2004 was 2.5 percent or less. CQ Politics' Election Forecast for Ohio is "No Clear Favorite."

Echoing other recent polls, a USA Today/Gallup survey conducted Aug. 21-23 shows that John McCain far and away is seen as more able to handle the responsibilities of commander-in-chief than Barack Obama. However, Obama has the advantage over McCain on a host of qualities and characteristics other than foreign policy and national security.

Eighty-percent of Americans believe McCain is more prepared to be commander-in-chief compared to 53 percent for Obama. Only 18 percent don't believe that of McCain, while 44 percent say Obama cannot handle those duties.

Obama leads McCain by 7 points or more in four different areas: caring about peoples' needs, ability to work with both parties to get things done, independence, and sharing peoples' values.

Our latest round-up of state match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Florida and Rhode Island (guess who's ahead there?) Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.

• Colorado: McCain leads Obama 47 percent to 46 percent with 7 percent choosing neither, preferring "other" or having no opinion in a Time/CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Aug. 24-26. The margin of error is 4 percent. A Suffolk University poll conducted Aug. 21-24 had Obama ahead 44 percent to 39 percent with Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr drawing 2 percent each and 12 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.6 percent. Suffolk's David Paleologos said, "Should Obama go on to win Colorado, it would almost force McCain to run the table with the remaining battleground states or lose the election." Other recent polls were tighter. McCain was in a statistical tie with Obama, leading him 47 percent to 46 percent with 5 percent undecided in a Quinnipiac University survey conducted Aug. 13-15 has Obama ahead of McCain 46 percent to 43 percent within the survey's 5 point margin of error. Previously, a Rocky Mountain News/CBS 4 poll conducted Aug. 11-13 had McCain leading Obama 44 percent to 41 percent with 3 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr, 2 percent for Ralph Nader and 8 percent undecided in. That result was within the poll's 4.38 percent margin of error. The survey found a "massive generational split" with Obama leading McCain 56 percent to 34 percent among voters under 35 years of age and McCain leading Obama 51 percent to 34 percent among those 65 and older. The state has gone Republican the last three elections (by less than 5 points in 2004), but the Obama camp thinks they can make it competitive. CQ Politics' Election Forecast puts Colorado in the "No Clear Favorite" column.

Although tonight's Democratic Convention theme is "Securing America's Future," A CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Aug. 23-24 says that Obama had a lot of work to do to close the gap with John McCain and foreign policy and national security issues.

• McCain leads Obama 78 percent to 58 percent on the question of who can handle the responsibilities of commander-in-chief. Forty-one percent of Americans said Obama was not up to that job compared to only 21 percent who said that of McCain.
• Americans see McCain as better prepared to handle terrorism by 60 percent to 36 percent.
• McCain's edge on Iraq is smaller, no doubt because so many Americans believe going into the war was a mistake, but he leads Obama on this issue 53 percent to 44 percent.

As pundits and analysts try to diagnose why Barack Obama is not doing better in the polls, a Gallup analysis of data from its tracking polls conducted Aug. 18-24 says one factor is that some conservative Democrats are slipping through Obama's fingers.

Obama's support among liberal and moderate Democrats has been holding pretty steady in the 91 percent and 78 percent range respectively, but his support among those describing themselves as conservative, which reached 72 percent at one point in July, is now 63 percent. The only consolation is that this is a relatively small group in the party.

In the rush of horse-race polls, we didn't have a chance to catch up with a Pew Research Center report - perhaps made more timely by Hillary Clinton's run for President this year - onwho makes the better leader - a man or a woman?

That title perhaps overshadows the whole answer because what the study says is that Americans believe women have the "right stuff" to be political leaders, they still have not achieved positions of influence and power proportionate to their numbers. As the study notes, women make up 17 percent of members of the House, 16 percent of Senators, 16 percent of governors and 24 percent of state legislators.

The survey, conducted June 16 to July 16, says 61 percent say men and women make equally good politically leaders, with 21 percent saying men are better and 6 percent saying that of women.

Barack Obama leads John McCain 44 percent to 40 percent with 12 percent undecided in a Diageo/Hotline poll conducted during two periods, Aug. 18-20, and Aug. 18-24. The margin of error for parts of the poll not aimed at sounding out reaction to Obama's selection of Joe Biden is 3 percent. Fifty-five percent of Democrats were satisfied with the choice of Biden while 28 percent were not.

The poll identified strengths and weaknesses of Obama and McCain. Seventy percent of voters saw Obama as a great deal or somewhat in touch with the "average American" compared to 61 percent for McCain. Two-thirds also though Obama had done and excellent or good job of presenting himself as a potential president compared to 50 percent for McCain.

But as has helped McCain and plagued Obama in nearly every poll that tested some aspect of the experience factor voters said McCain was more prepared to lead the country as president by 58 percent to 34 percent.

On the economy, seen as the top issue by half of voters, Obama led McCain 48 percent to 40 percent.

Hillary Clinton's stock among fellow Democrats has improved since Barack Obama clinched the Democratic nomination and most Democrats would like to see her run for President again, according to a Gallup poll conducted Aug. 21-23. Eighty percent of Democrats now viewed her favorably, up from 74 percent in early June. Americans overall would like to see her run again for President by 52 percent to 47 percent, and Democrats come out 75 percent to 24 percent on that score. Independents are split.

Our latest round-up of state match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates the swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and also North Carolina. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.

• Florida: The state remains very competitive. McCain leads Obama 47 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 8 percent undecided in a Quinnipiac University poll conducted Aug. 17-24. The margin of error is 3 percent. This result comes even though Floridians say b y 44 percent to 39 percent they'd like to see a Democrat in the White House. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 55 percent to 32 percent compared to 51 percent to 36 percent for Obama. As in most national and state polls, McCain has double-digit leads when it comes to handling terrorism, relations with Russia and a foreign conflict such as one between Israel and Iran. Obama's leads on domestic issues hover within or just above the margin of error. McCain leads by 8 percent among independents who Quinnipiac says could determine the outcome here. an American Research Group poll conducted Aug. 18-20 had McCain statistically tied with Obama at 47 percent to 46 percent with 7 percent. The margin of error is 4 percent. McCain had a 16 point lead among white voters while Obama led 85 percent to 7 percent among blacks, but white voters make up 71 percent of the sample compared to black voters who comprise 13 percent. The two ran just about even among Hispanic voters, who are 16 percent of the sample. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 18 has McCain leading 46 percent to 43 percent with 7 percent preferring other and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. In its July poll, Obama had led McCain by 1 point and Rasmussen noted he achieved that number after spending "a reported $5 million on television advertising while McCain spent nothing." Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 49 percent to 48 percent while McCain's is 51 percent to 37 percent. An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Aug. 11 had McCain ahead 48 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 5 points. Republicans have carried the state in four of the last five elections including, of course, the hotly-contested outcome in 2000 where the state was awarded to George Bush by a hair. CQ Politics' Election Forecast has "No Clear Favorite here.

Today we update North Carolina. Also, check out our "Senate Races to Watch" and our state-by-state election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down.

• North Carolina: Although it is within the 3.3 percent margin of error, Democratic challenger Kay Hagan has taken a 42 percent to 39 percent lead over Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole's with 5 percent favoring Libertarian Chris Cole and 13 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Aug. 20-23. PPP says what the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is doing to Dole right now "is the political equivalent of a punch in the gut from Muhammad Ali," thanks to a TV ad seen by 69 percent of voters about Dole ranking 93 for effectiveness in the Senate. Also, Hagan has closed the gap with two key constituencies for Republicans, white and older voters. However, the pollster notes that while all this is not great news for Dole, she "has plenty of money and a lot of time to recover." An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Aug. 19. The margin of error was 3.8 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Aug. 9-11 had Dole ahead 46 percent to 41 percent with drawing 7 percent and 5 percent undecided in a. That was the first time SurveyUSA included Cole in its poll, and it observed: "Hagan is flat, Dole is down. Cole gets 11% of male votes today, siphoning key votes Dole needs to win. However, Cole was not running anywhere near as strongly in the PPP poll. CQ Politics rates the race as "Republican Favored."

Our latest round-up of state match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates Texas and the crucial states of Michigan, Ohio and Colorado - all crucial states. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.

• Texas: McCain leads Obama 50 percent to 41 percent with 5 percent choosing o"other" and 4 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 21. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain is viewed favorably by 62 percent of voters and unfavorably by 35 percent. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 50 percent to 49 percent. McCain has the loyalty of 82 percent of Republicans and draws 16 percent of Democratic votes. Obama is backed by 75 percent of Republicans and 14 percent of Republicans. McCain leads 51 percent to 35 percent among unaffiliated voters. A a University of Texas-Austin poll conducted July 18-30 had McCain ahead 42 percent to 33 percent among registered voters with Libertarian Bob Barr at just under 5 percent, Ralph Nader at 2 percent and 17 percent undecided.. The margin of error was 3.77 percent. The poll included a "feeling thermometer" for which voters were asked to say whether they felt very warm or cold towards a candidate. McCain rated 53.8 degrees to Obama's 50.3 degrees which rated as "no feeling at all." Two percent of Texans said the country's economy was better off than a year ago and 81 percent said it was worse. A Rasmussen Reports Poll conducted July 30 had McCain ahead 50 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and only 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. That's unchanged in this poll from a month ago. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ration was 60 percent to 37 percent while Obama's was 46 percent to 51 percent. McCain led 45 percent to 42 percent among unaffiliated voters. Republicans have comfortably carried the state in all of the last five elections. The CQ Politics Election Forecast calls Texas "Safe Republican."

Today we update Colorado and Michigan. Also, check out our "Senate Races to Watch" and our state-by-state election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down.

• Colorado: Democrat Mark Udall leads Republican Rep. Bob Schaffer 39 percent to 31 percent with 22 percent undecided in a Suffolk University poll conducted Aug. 21-24. The margin of error is 4.6 percent. A Mason-Dixon Research for the Denver Post conducted Aug. 13-15 had Udall ahead by 10 points. However, the paper did not provide the actual figures for each beyond their favorable-to-unfavorable ratios which were 42 percent to 23 percent for Udall and 27 percent to 25 percent for Schaffer with 39 percent providing no view. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug.13 had Udall ahead 47 percent to 41 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 10 percent undecided in. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Udall had led by 4 points in last month's Rasmussen poll. Udall's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 53 percent to 39 percent while Schaffer's is 48 percent to 38 percent. A Rocky Mountain News/CBS 4 poll released today showed Udall leading 44 percent to 38 percent with Udall holding a 14 point edge among women voters. But thirty-nine percent of voters said they had not yet formed an opinion about Schaffer and 29 percent said the same of Udall. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Aug. 5-7 had Udall ahead 47 percent to 41 percent with 12 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.2 percent. Udall and Schaffer are vying to fill the seat of retiring GOP Sen. Wayne Allard. PPP's results in this key state paint a rosier picture for the Democrats - both in the Senate race and the John McCain-Barack Obama contest - than did a recent Quinnipiac University poll. PPP notes, thought, it is a slip of 3 points for Udall since its last survey. Udall ties Schaffer among white voters, but has a 16 point lead among Hispanics who made up 15 percent of the sample. The Quinnipiac University/Washington Post/ Wall Street Journal poll conducted July 14-22 had the race tied at 44 percent each with 11 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.6 percent. Udall had a 10 point lead in Quinnipiac's previous survey. CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Democrat."

Barack Obama enjoys a 52 percent to 40 percent advantage over John McCain when it comes to voters seeing him as the candidate best able to handle the economy, according to a Gallup poll conducted Aug. 21-23. That's good news for Obama since 43 percent of registered voters name the economy as the top issue with Iraq a distant second at 15 percent and energy third at 14 percent.

McCain leads Obama 58 percent to 34 percent on handling terrorism. But only 9 percent of voters cite terrorism as their most important issue. McCain also has double-digit leads when it comes to handling policy towards Russia and the situation in Iraq.

Obama leads on most other domestic issues: by 22 points on health care and 11 points on energy. He has a slim 47 percent to 44 percent lead on taxes. The margin of error is 4 percent.

Barack Obama apparently has received no boost so far from choosing Joseph Biden as running mate, with a CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Aug. 23-24 after the selection has him deadlocked with John McCain at 47 percent each.

"This looks like a step backward for Obama, who had a 51 to 44 percent advantage last month," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "Even last week, just before his choice of Joe Biden as his running mate became known, most polls tended to show Obama with a single-digit advantage over McCain."

While a New York Times/CBS News poll found that more than half of Hillary Clinton delegates to the Democratic convention said they were now enthusiastic about Obama, CNN's poll of the public at large said that the percentage of Clinton supporters who back Obama has dropped from 75 percent at the end of June to 66 percent. The number who said they will back McCain has gone up 11 points.

Thirty-nine percent of voters regard Michelle Obama as very liberal, and if those who see her as "somewhat liberal" are included, that number rising to 64 percent, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 24 A quarter of voters think she will be very involved in policymaking if Barack Obama is elected and another 31 percent see her as being somewhat involved.

More than half the delegates who supported Hillary Clinton in the primaries say they are now enthusiastic about Obama while 3 in 10 have reservations but will back him because he is the nominee, according to a New York Times/CBS News Poll conducted Aug. 15-20. .

Seventy-nine percent of Democratic delegates are confident he will win.

Sixty-five percent say the economy is most important issue while Iraq registered only at 6 percent.

Asked about Obama's main strengths, 23 percent said it was that he was "inspirational/gives hope " followed by 13 percent who say he will bring change and 10 percent saying he is a good speaker, a fresh face, can provide leadership and united Americans.

Forty-two percent say his inexperience is his main weakness.

More than half of delegates consider him a liberal and about a quarter say he is a moderate.

Seventy-nine percent of delegates have a favorable opinion of Bill Clinton compared to 96 percent who held that view in 2004 while Al Gore's favorability rating went up from 83 percent to 93 percent.

Ninety percent beliece that it would help Democratic candidates in their states some or a lot if Obama campaigns for them.

Our latest round-up of state match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates the crucial states of Colorado and Virginia which are both toss-ups and could turn out to be a key to the election. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.

• Virginia: The polls here consistently agree that McCain and Obama are in a real horse-race in a state that has gone Republican in the last five elections.Obama is leading McCain 47 percent to 45 percent with 8 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Aug. 20-22. That's within the 3 point margin of error. While McCain leads 55 percent to 36 percent among white voters (75 percent of the sample), Obama leads 89 percent to 11percent among blacks (20 percent of the sample). A large number of voters counted in each man's camp say they could change their mind by Election Day. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Aug. 12 has Obama at 46 percent and McCain at 45 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 51 percent to 47 percent while McCain's is 61 percent to 36 percent. Rasmussen says McCain has the advantage among unaffiliated voters. An InsiderAdvantage poll also conducted Aug. 12 has McCain and Obama even at 43 percent each with 9 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 5 percent. InsiderAdvantage says, "The secret to Obama's ability to make Virginia a close race can be found in his ability to attract 40% of the white vote. While Virginia's black vote will likely be less than states such as Georgia or North Carolina, it is substantial enough that, when combined with such a strong showing among whites, it falls into the 'recipe' we see as necessary for Obama to win Southern states that have voted Republican in recent years." A SurveyUSA poll conducted Aug. 8-10 had Obama at 48 percent to 47 percent for McCain with 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. Obama had a 23 point lead among voters under 34 who make up 21 percent of the sample. McCain led among white voters (74 percent of the sample) by 58 percent to 37 percent while Obama led among blacks (19 percent of the sample) by 84 percent to 14 percent. Independents prefer McCain by 11 points. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 17-20 also had Obama in a statistical dead-heat with McCain, leading 46 percent to 44 percent, the same margin as last month. Ten percent are undecided and the margin of error is 2.7 percent. Unlike some other states, there is no gender gap here among either men or women. However, McCain leads 53 percent to 36 percent among white voters (73 percent of the sample) and Obama by 77 percent to 16 percent among blacks (20 percent of the sample). A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 16, has Obama and McCain tied at 46 percent each with 5 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is better at 64 percent to 36 percent, while Obama's is 52 percent to 47 percent. Virginians rank national security pretty high as an issue with 30 percent choosing that as the issue with which they are more concerned, while 42 percent named the economy. Voters put more importance on lowering gasoline prices than protecting the environment by 48 percent to 40 percent. Check Out the Washington Post story about Virginia's emergence as a key battleground state. Republicans won the last five elections here even in 1992 when independent candidate Ross Perot siphoned off votes from the first George Bush. The CQ Politics' Election Forecast says this state "Leans Republican."

Today we update Colorado and Mississippi. Also, check out our "Senate Races to Watch" and our state-by-state election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down.

• Colorado: Democrat Mark Udall has opened up a 10 point lead over former Republican Rep. Bob Schaffer in a poll conducted Aug. 13-15 by Mason-Dixon Research for the Denver Post. However, the paper did not provide the actual figures for each beyond their favorable-to-unfavorable ratios which were 42 percent to 23 percent for Udall and 27 percent to 25 percent for Schaffer with 39 percent providing no view. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug.13 had Udall ahead 47 percent to 41 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 10 percent undecided in. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Udall had led by 4 points in last month's Rasmussen poll. Udall's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 53 percent to 39 percent while Schaffer's is 48 percent to 38 percent. A Rocky Mountain News/CBS 4 poll released today showed Udall leading 44 percent to 38 percent with Udall holding a 14 point edge among women voters. But thirty-nine percent of voters said they had not yet formed an opinion about Schaffer and 29 percent said the same of Udall. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Aug. 5-7 had Udall ahead 47 percent to 41 percent with 12 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.2 percent. Udall and Schaffer are vying to fill the seat of retiring GOP Sen. Wayne Allard. PPP's results in this key state paint a rosier picture for the Democrats - both in the Senate race and the John McCain-Barack Obama contest - than did a recent Quinnipiac University poll. PPP notes, thought, it is a slip of 3 points for Udall since its last survey. Udall ties Schaffer among white voters, but has a 16 point lead among Hispanics who made up 15 percent of the sample. The Quinnipiac University/Washington Post/ Wall Street Journal poll conducted July 14-22 had the race tied at 44 percent each with 11 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.6 percent. Udall had a 10 point lead in Quinnipiac's previous survey. CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Democrat."

Barack Obama leads John McCain 49 percent to 43 percent among registered voters with 3 percent liking neither and 3 percent expressing no opinion in a Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted Aug. 19-22. That's two points down for Obama since this poll was last done in July. Among likely voters, Obama's margin is 4 points, up 1 point from July. Elevn percent of voters say there is a good chance they could change their minds, and that number is larger among McCain backers (14 percent) than Obama supporters (7 percent).

When Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr were factored in the poll among registered voters, Obama led 47 percent to 40 percent with Barr and Nader each drawing 4 percent.

Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 62 percent to 34 percent compared to McCain's 59 percent to 37 percent. That's little changed from June.

As well Joe Biden is known in Washington and the political world, 23 percent of Americans say they never have heard of him and 28 percent don't have an opinion about him, according to an overnight USA Today/Gallup poll. In any event, 7 of 10 Americans say Barack Obama's choice of him won't affect their voting decisions.

Voters believe Biden is qualified to serve as President if that became necessary by a 57 percent to 18 percent margin.

About 3 in 10 of Democrats call the choice "excellent," 36 percent say "pretty good," 16 percent say "only fair' and 6 percent say "poor." Forty-five percent of independents call the choice excellent or and 35 percent rate it fair or poor.

USA Today says Biden's ratings were lower than what John Edwards got in 2004 when John Kerry chose him. We doubt it's much cheer to Biden that they were higher than former Sen. Dan Quayle got when the first President Bush chose him in 1988.

Our latest round-up of state match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates Tennessee and California, states that are no contests. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.

• Tennessee: McCain leads Obama 56 percent to 32 percent with 6 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 20. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Republicans won three of the last five elections here with the two losses to Bill Clinton and Al Gore in 1992 and 1996. CQ Politics' Election Forecast has Tennessee as "Republican Favored."

Some pollster notes on Joe Biden from Rasmussen Reports:

• Biden's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio among voters is 43 percent to 38 percent.
• Among just Democrats, Biden is viewed favorably by 65 percent and by 42 percent of voters unaffiliated with either party.
• Forty-one percent see him as liberal, 22 percent think he's a moderate and 15 percent say he is conservative. Among Democrats alone, 31 percent view him as liberal.
• Biden is better known than all the other prospective running mates mentioned in the last few weeks except for Hillary Clinton.

Although the political party preferences of voters favor the Democrats, Barack Obama is not fully reaping the benefit of that because John McCain is getting more support from members of his party than Obama is from Democrats, according to a Gallup analysis of its daily tracking poll data. While McCain has the loyalty of 84 percent of Republicans, Obama's support among Democrats stands at 79 percent. In addition, while independents lean more towards the Democrats than Republicans, Obama and McCain currently run neck-and-neck among the 36 percent who describe themselves as independents. This is a trend that can also be seen in some individual state polls posted in our round-ups. Part of Obama's problem no doubt lies with the reluctance of some Hillary Clinton supporters to embrace him. A New York Times/CBS News poll found that about a quarter of former Clinton backers said they were undecided. The continuing antipathy between some in the Obama and Clinton camps was also highlighted by a Times/CBS poll of Democratic convention delegates.

Today we update Minnesota, where there is big news as well as Kansas and New Mexico in our round-up of Senate polls. Also, check out our "Senate Races to Watch" and our state-by-state election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down.

• Minnesota: Democrat Al Franken , whose candidacy has struggled, now has moved into a statistical tie with Republican first-termer Norm Coleman. Franken leads 41 percent to 40 percent among likely voters with 8 percent for Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley and 11 percent undecided in a Minnesota Public Radio poll conducted conducted Aug. 7-17. The margin of error is 3.6 percent. The poll says that voter dissatisfaction and anger with President Bush and the Republicans have offset Franken's problems which included questions about his taxes and a satirical piece he had done for Playboy that the Coleman camp hoped would offend Minnesotans. Barkley's entrance in the race is hurting Franken more than Coleman because he is competed with Franken for disaffected voters. A KTSP/SurveyUSA poll reported by the station Aug. 18 had Coleman leading Franken 46 percent to 39 percent with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.8 percent. In its last poll, Franken had trailed by 13. Coleman enjoyed an advantage in party support drawing 87 percent among fellow Republicans compared to Franken's 74 percent among Democrats. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Aug. 13 had Coleman and Franken tied at 45 percent each with 5 percent preferring "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. That compared to a Quinnipiac University/Washington Post/ Wall Street Journal poll conducted July 14-22 showing Coleman with a 53 percent to 38 percent lead and 8 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.8 percent. Rasmussen does say that "things are beginning to lean in favor of" Coleman because if voters leaning towards one man or another are counted, he is ahead 49 percent to 46 percent. Quinnipiac's Peter Brown said in his poll that "Franken still faces an uphill battle in his quest to unseat Sen. Norm Coleman, with almost 20 percent of the voters in his own party voting for the Republican incumbent" CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Republican."

Our latest round-up of state match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates Indiana, Michigan and New Mexico. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.

• Indiana: Despite this state's history of voting Republican, McCain only leads Obama by 46 percent to 42 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 8 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 19-21. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 65 percent to 32 percent while Obama's is 52 percent to 44 percent. Obama may be getting some advantage from representing the state next door, Illinois. McCain leads by 12 point among men and runs evenly with Obama among women. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Aug. 16-18 had McCain ahead 50 percent to 44 percent with 3 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. McCain led by 12 points among men and tied Obama among women. Except for voters under 34 among whom Obama ledby 22 points, McCain had healthy leads in all other age groups. McCain had a 12 point lead among white voters. Both men ran fairly evenly among the 45 percent of voters that cite the economy as the top issue, but Obama led him by wide margins among the 12 percent of voters who named health care and the 9 percent who said the top issue is Iraq. Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections, and the only year where their margin of victory was less than 15 points was 1996 when independent Ross Perot got 10 percent of the vote. CQ Politics' Election Forecast Rates this state "Republican Favored."

A Pew Research Center survey conducted July 31-Aug. 10 about religion and politics says that while John McCain enjoys far stronger backing among white evangelicals than Barack Obama , his support among them is much softer than it was for George Bush in his two election runs. White evangelicals favor McCain over Obama 68 percent to 24 percent, with 28 percent favoring him strongly and 40 percent not strongly. In August 2004, 57 percent of theis group favored Bush strongly, although in his first run in 2000, that number was only 34 percent.

Barack Obama and John McCain are statistically tied in yet another national poll. Obama leads McCain 42 percent to 39 percent with a sizable 19 percent undecided in a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll conducted Aug. 19-20. The margin of error is 3 points. Obama led by 4 points in June and the undecideds then were at 14 percent. Fourteen percent of Obama supporters and 12 percent of McCain supporters said they might change their minds by election day. Independents split evenly and 39 percent of them are undecided.

Asked what they liked most about Obama, the top two things were "new ideas/freshface" and "will bring change," (15 percent and 10 percent respectively). But when it came to what voters didn't like about Obama, 31 percent said "too young, too inexperienced, not qualified." McCain's far-and-away top quality to voters, at 26 percent, was his experience. The biggest knock against him -24 percent - was that he's too old.

A National Public Radio poll conducted in 19 battleground states has Barack Obama neck-and-neck with John McCain, leading him 46 percent to 45 percent with Ralph Nader drawing 2 percent and Libertarian Bob Barr 1 percent. Those numbers include "leaners." The poll was conducted Aug. 12-14.

Fifty-one percent of voters said McCain has been too negative in his campaign compared to 27 percent for Obama.

The poll also tested voters on how they viewed the candidates across a range of issues and characteristics. On the economy, considered the top issue by most voters, Obama had a 47 percent to 42 percent lead. Here are the areas where they registered their biggest differences:

• Fifty percent of voters think Obama says what people want to hear rather than what he believes compared to 34 percent for McCain. This comports with most other polls.
• When it comes to "bringing the right kind of change," Obama leads McCain 52 percent to 37 percent.
• Voters believe Obama is "too risky" compared to McCain by 51 percent to 38 percent.
• McCain is seen as the stronger leader by 50 percent to 40 percent and voters say he "has what it takes to be president" by a 51 percent to 40 percent margin over Obama
• McCain leads Obama 52 percent to 42 percent on his approach to Iraq and 54 percent to 37 percent on Afghanistan. There is an odd disconnect here between the national findings on the Iraq issue and the results in the state-by-state general election match-ups where voters who care most about Iraq as a campaign issue tend to favor Obama.

Our latest round-up of state match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates Florida, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Arizona and Louisiana. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.

• Florida: One tight poll after another. McCain leads Obama 47 percent to 46 percent with 7 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Aug. 18-20. The margin of error is 4 percent. McCain has a 16 point lead among white voters while Obama leads 85 percent to 7 percent among blacks, but white voters make up 71 percent of the sample compared to black voters who comprise 13 percent. The two run just about even among Hispanic voters, who are 16 percent of the sample. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 18 has McCain leading 46 percent to 43 percent with 7 percent preferring other and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. In its July poll, Obama had led McCain by 1 point and Rasmussen noted he achieved that number after spending "a reported $5 million on television advertising while McCain spent nothing." Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 49 percent to 48 percent while McCain's is 51 percent to 37 percent. An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Aug. 11 had McCain ahead 48 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 5 points. Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 30-Aug.2 had McCain ahead 47 percent to 44 percent with 8 percent undecided. But that also was within the 3.5 percent margin of error. McCain enjoyed higher support in this poll among fellow Republicans at 84 percent than Obama does among Democrats at 76 percent. McCain led 55 percent to 36 percent among whites (67 percent of the sample), and the two were in a statistical tie among Hispanics (16 percent of the sample) with Obama ahead 48 percent to 45 percent. Obama led among blacks (14 percent of the sample) 80 percent to 15 percent. Obama had a 16 point advantage among voters under 29 (15 percent of the sample) while McCain ledby 23 points among voters over 65 (19 percent of the sample). McCain leads by 11 points among women. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Aug. 1-3 had McCain ahead 50 percent to 44 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.8 percent. McCain had a 7 point lead among women. Obama leads by almost 2-to-1 among voters under 34 who made up 17 percent of the sample, but McCain leads by at least 12 points in all other age groups. McCain leads 57 percent to 38 percent among white voters (73 percent of the sample) while Obama leads 84 percent to 16 percent among blacks (11 percent) and 48 percent to 42 percent among Hispanics (13 percent). Fifty-eight percent of voters cited the economy as the top issue in the campaign and they split evenly between McCain and Obama. Iraq was named by only 8 percent and Obama led McCain there by 23 points. Republicans have carried the state in four of the last five elections including, of course, the hotly-contested outcome in 2000 where the state was awarded to George Bush by a hair. CQ Politics' Election Forecast has "No Clear Favorite here.

Differing somewhat from the other recent national polls showing a dead heat race - and one that even had John McCain ahead - a New York Times/CBS News poll conducted Aug. 15-19 had Barack Obama with the same margin over McCain that he held in July: 45 percent to 39 percent with 13 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points. Seventy percent of voters say they had their minds made up - a percentage reflected also among Obama and McCain supporters - while 29 percent said it was too early to say.

Like all the other polls, this one found a huge enthusiasm gap. Forty-three percent of Obama supporters are enthusiastic compared to 14 percent for McCain. Obama has another 48 percent who are satisfied, and McCain has 67 percent in that camp, but the Republican ranks have 17 percent who describe themselves as dissatisfied.

John McCain has closed in on Barack Obama in yet another major national poll. McCain now trails Obama by only 45 percent to 42 percent in a Wall Street Journal/NBC News survey conducted Aug. 15-18, down from the 6 point leads Obama held in June and July. Four percent answered "neither" and 8 percent were undecided. The margin of error is 3.1 percent.

One finding sure to stoke the fervor of Hillary Clinton diehards said if Clinton was the Democratic candidate, she would be leading 49 percent to 43 percent. That is tempered somewhat by the fact that, by the same margin, voters said they did not hope she would be president some day.

Obama still has a problem with those Clinton backers. Fifty-two percent of them say they will vote for Obama, but 21 percent are backing McCain, with an additional 27 percent who are undecided or want to vote for someone else.

Today we update New Hampshire and North Carolina, where the news is not good for two Republican incumbents. Also, check out our "Senate Races to Watch" and our state-by-state election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down.

• New Hampshire: Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, the former governor, leads Republican incumbent John Sununu by 51 percent to 40 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 19. The margin of error is 4 percent. Shaheen's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 55 percent to 39 percent while Sununu's is 49 percent to 44 percent. Shaheen enjoys a 25 point lead among unaffiliated voters. An American Research Group poll conducted Aug. 18-20 has Shaheen ahead of Sununu 52 percent to 42 percent with 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. Shaheen leads among independents by nearly 2-to-1. CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Democrat."

After an avalanche of polls yesterday from states with competitive contests, today we update two of the most closely-watched states - Missouri and Ohio. Yesterday, we updated North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida, Iowa, Indiana and Minnesota in our round-up of state match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain. As with the polls yesterday, the news is better for McCain. The latest Missouri poll has McCain opening up a sizable lead and the Ohio poll has the state leaning towards him. Yesterday's surveys showed McCain gaining some ground in North Carolina and, while Obama is still ahead in Pennsylvania, his support in both states hasn't changed much. McCain also pulled out ahead in Indiana and Florida, although by a statistically insignificant margin in the latter. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down.

• Missouri: McCain has moved out to a 50 percent to 40 percent lead over Obama with 9 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Aug. 13-17. The margin of error is 3.6 percent. In early July, McCain's lead in this poll was only 3 points. White voters are supporting McCain by 56 percent to 35 percent and with black voters making up only 12 percent of the sample, Obama would have to become more competitive among whites. McCain holds a 14 point lead among men and also leads among women, by 5 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted August 7 put McCain ahead of Obama 48 percent to 41 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 7 percent undecided in. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. This is a 2 point gain since the last Rasmussen poll. Both men were seen favorably by voters - Obama by 63 percent and McCain by 59 percent. Missourians put a higher priority on lowering gasoline prices than protecting the environment by 53 percent to 34 percent. They regard Afghanistan and not Iraq as the central front in the war on terror and principal threat to the U.S. by significant majorities. SurveyUSA poll conducted July 29-31 had McCain ahead 49 percent to 44 percent with 7 percent undecided and a 2.6 percent margin of error. McCain had an 8 point lead among men and a 15 point lead among whites (86 percent of the sample), while lagging Obama only slightly among women and by the usual huge margin among blacks (11 percent of the sample). The biggest age group difference was among those over 65 (about a fifth of the sample) where McCain led by 15 points. Independents preferred McCain by 21 points. The economy was the top issue for Missourians and Obama leads there by a bare 49 percent to 46 percent. A Research 2000 poll conducted July 7-10 for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch KMOV-TV had McCain ahead 48 percent to 43 percent with 9 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.5. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio among voters was 54 percent to 37 percent while McCain's was 49 percent to 43 percent. McCain had an 11 point lead among white voters while Obama has an overwhelming lead among blacks. Obama had a slim 4 point lead among independents. Among age groups, the only one in which either candidate has a big advantage is with voters under 29 where Obama is ahead by 15 points. Thirty-five percent of Missourians think McCain's age will be important to voters. The top five issues for voters (in this order) were the economy, Iraq, lowering gas prices, health care and terrorism. Of those, voters believed Obama would better deal with the economy, gas prices and health care by 16 points, 15 points and 23 points respectively, the two ran about even on Iraq, while McCain led Obama on the terrorism issue by 19 points. On Iraq, 46 percent said the U.S.'s next move should be to withdraw some troops and 27 percent said it should withdraw all the troops. Republicans have won 7 of the last 10 elections here with George Bush winning by about 7 points and 3 points in 2004 and 2000, and Clinton winning by about 6 in 1996 and about 11 in 1992.

Three national polls are out today with different pictures of the race, although none of them are particularly good news for Barack Obama. There has also been a series of state polls in the last two days which showed the Democrat having difficulty gaining any ground.

The George Washington University Battleground 2008 survey conducted Aug. 10-14 has John McCain in a dead heat with Obama leading him 47 percent to 46 percent with 2 percent preferring "other" and 19 percent undecided. The poll is conducted jointly by the Republican Tarrance Group and the Democratic firm of Lake Research Partners.

A Wall Street Journal/NBC News survey conducted Aug. 15-18 says McCain now trails Obama by only 45 percent to 42 percent in, down from the 6 point leads Obama held in June and July. Four percent answered "neither" and 8 percent were undecided. The margin of error is 3.1 percent.

And a Reuters/Zogby poll conducted Aug. 14-17 has McCain moving out front 46 percent to 41 percent with 13 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points. Last month, Obama had led by 7 points.

These three polls come on the heels of yesterday's Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg survey that had Obama and McCain in a statistical tie, with Obama ahead 45 percent to 43 percent in a survey conducted Aug. 15-18. The margin of error was 3 points.

When you combine these with match-ups of McCain and Obama in eight competitive states for which polls came out yesterday and today, a picture emerges of an Obama campaign - at least at this point - losing some of the luster it had after he clinched the nomination, and either just holding his ground or slipping in the polls.

Following up the candidates' appearances at Saddleback Church last Saturday, Gallup reports that John McCain continues to enjoy a 43 percent to 37 percent lead among registered voters who attend church weekly, according to a survey conducted Aug. 11-17. McCain has a smaller 47 percent to 43 percent edge among those who attend nearly weekly or monthly, while Obama leads 54 percent to 34 percent among those who say they seldom or never attend. The differences are even sharper when the sample is limited to whites, with McCain holding a 64 percent to 25 percent lead among weekly churchgoers and a 56 percent to 34 percent lead among those who attend nearly weekly or monthly. Obama's margin among white non-churchgoers at 48 percent to 39 percent is smaller than his overall figure.

Today we update North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida, Iowa, Indiana and Minnesota in our round-up of state match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain. The news tends to be better for McCain with him gaining some ground in North Carolina, and while Obama is ahead in Pennsylvania, his support in both states hasn't changed much. McCain also pulled out ahead in Indiana and Florida, although by a statistically insignificant margin. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down.

• North Carolina: While Obama is still in hailing distance in a state that the Republicans have carried in the last five elections, another poll this month is noting movement towards McCain. McCain leads 46 percent to 40 percent with 2 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 12 percent undecided in a Civitas Institute poll conducted Aug .14-17. The margin of error is 4.2 percent. That's a 3 point gain for McCain since July in this poll. Helping McCain is growing strength among independents which is now 18 points. At one point, he had been about even with Obama among them. The pollster says Obama seems stuck at about 40 percent even though he "continues to invest millions of dollars in television, field operations and commit his personal time." A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 13 also found McCain picking up a little ground. McCain led Obama 46 percent to 42 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 8 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. But McCain's lead widens to 6 points when voters leaning one way or the other are included. In the last Rasmussen survey in mid-July, McCain led by 3. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio was 59 percent to 40 percent while Obama's is 51 percent to 48 percent. McCain had stronger support than Obama with his own base, drawing the backing of 87 percent of Republicans compared to Obama's 74 percent of Democrats. McCain had better than a 2-to-1 margin among white voters. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Aug. 9-11 gave McCain a 49 percent to 45 percent lead that's just a hair beyond the 3.9 percent margin of error. Three percent preferred "other" and 3 percent were undecided. McCain led by 9 among men voters and the two men were statistically even among women. McCain led among voters over 34, with the most pronounced advantage being a 13 point edge among voters over 65 (18 percent of the sample). McCain led 60 percent to 33 percent among white voters (75 percent of the sample) while Obama led 91 percent to 9 percent among blacks (19 percent of the sample). The economy is cited by voters as the top issue and Obama and McCain run evenly among them. CQ Politics' Election Forecast lists this state as "Republican Favored."

John McCain and Barack Obama are in a statistical dead heat with Obama leading 45 percent to 43 percent in a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll conducted Aug. 15-18. The margin of error is 3 points. Obama led in this poll in June by 12 points.

There has been much written and talked about regarding Obama's inability to pull away from McCain despite a political environment that's challenging for the Republicans, and some of the state-by-state polls we've been reporting show a similar result. (See today's post on North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Minnesota). A Gallup analyst has a piece today assessing Obama's supposed "under-performance" in the polls.

That being said, both men face obstacles:

• The poll found far more voters see McCain as having the right experience to be President and a third harboring questions about McCain's patriotism.
• Obama leads McCain among voters citing the economy as the top issue, his uspporters are far more enthusiastic than McCain's, and independents are tilting towards him.

Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio now stands at 48 percent to 35 percent compared to 59 percent to 37 percent in June. McCain's have stayed about the same.

"All the negative attacks from the McCain campaign seem to have been paying off," said Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus.

Today we update New Jersey. Also, check out our "Senate Races to Watch" and our state-by-state election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down.

• New Jersey: Democrat Frank Lautenberg leads former Republican Rep. Dick Zimmer 50 percent to 32 percent in an Aug. 7-11 poll conducted by Zogby. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. A Quinnipiac University conducted Aug. 4-10 had Lautenberg ahead by a closer 48 percent to 41 percent margin with 11 percent undecided in a survey of likely voters by. The margin of error is 2.6 percent. Although the lead doesn't look insurmountable, Quinnipiac's Clay Richards said, "It's summer and voters aren't paying a lot of attention to this race. When they do, the incumbent's lead may get bigger - if voters don't get too concerned about the Senator's age." Those polled believed that Lautenberg was too old to serve another 6 years by a 55 percent to 39 percent margin, and that even included 50 percent of Democrats. But that doesn't appear to be helping Zimmer whose own problem is that 62 percent of voters don't know enough about him to form an opinion. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 4 had Lautenberg ahead 51 percent to 33 percent. That was up from his 13 point lead last month. Lautenberg leads 45 percent to 28 percent among unaffiliated voters and by 60 percent to 25 percent among women, while Zimmer leads 43 percent to 40 percent among men. Lautenberg's favorable-to-unfavorable numbers are 48 percent to 45 percent and Zimmer's are 37 percent to 41 percent. A Strategic Vision poll conducted July 11-13 had Lautenberg ahead 48 percent to 32 percent with 20 percent undecided. CQ Politics rates this race ["Democrat Favored."] (http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=senate-NJ)

Just in case you have an office pool betting on how much of a convention "bounce" each candidate will get in the next few weeks, the American Enterprise Institute has gathered the numbers from past election years to help you do some handicapping. AEI based its charts on polls done by Gallup, New York Times/CBS News and Wall Street Journal/NBC News.

Barack Obama is leading John McCain 47 percent to 42 percent with 9 percent undecided in a Quinnipiac University survey conducted Aug 12-17. The margin of error is 2.5 percent and the poll includes "leaners." That compares to the 9 point lead Obama held in Quinnipiac's mid-July poll. Only 20 percent of Obama supporters and 17 percent of those backing McCain say they might change their minds before Election Day. Independent voters, who were split in the last poll, now lean towards the Democrats 45 percent to 39 percent.

On top issues in the campaign, Obama leads McCain 61 percent to 30 percent on the war in Iraq (cited as most important by 16 percent), 49 percent to 41 percent on the economy (cited as most important by 52 percent) and 66 percent to 24 percent on health care (cited as most important by 10 percent). McCain is dominant on the terrorism issue (cited as most important by 9 percent), with voters trusting him more than Obama by 76 percent to 19 percent and on dealing with illegal immigration (cited as most important vby 6 percent), where McCain is preferred 64 percent to 23 percent.

Barack Obama is on the cusp of naming his running mate and a lot of the speculation is centering around Delaware Sen. Joseph Biden, Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh and Virginia Gov. Timothy Kaine. At least, those are the three that rated photos in today's Washington Post and New York Times stories.

But if you ask the delegates to the Democratic convention, which a New York Times/CBS News poll did, their runaway favorite is Hillary Clinton. Twenty-eight percent chose Clinton in a survey conducted July 16 - Aug. 17 among a random sample of 970 delegates with Biden getting 6 percent, John Edwards 4 percent (at least, pre-Aug. 8) and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson and Bayh tied at 4 percent.

Today we update Illinois and New York in our round-up of state match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down.

• Illinois: Obama leads McCain in his home state 53 percent to 38 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 12. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable-to unfavorable ratio is 64 percent to 35 percent while McCain's is 52 percent to 44 percent. Democrats have carried the state in the last four elections. Illinois went Republican in the six before those. The CQ Politics' Election Forecast for Illinois is "Safe Democratic."

Today we update the closely-watched race in Minnesota, and also Georgia, in our round-up. Also, check out our "Senate Races to Watch." The latest polls in both states showed Democrtas behind but closing the gap.

• Minnesota: Republican first-termer Norm Coleman leads Democrat Al Franken 46 percent to 39 percent with 5 percent undecided in a KTSP/SurveyUSA poll reported by the station Aug. 18. The margin of error is 3.8 percent. In its last poll, Franken had trailed by 13. Coleman enjoys an advantage in party support drawing 87 percent among fellow Republicans compared to Franken's 74 percent among Democrats. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Aug. 13 had Coleman and Franken tied at 45 percent each with 5 percent preferring "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. That compared to a Quinnipiac University/Washington Post/ Wall Street Journal poll conducted July 14-22 showing Coleman with a 53 percent to 38 percent lead and 8 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.8 percent. Rasmussen does say that "things are beginning to lean in favor of" Coleman because if voters leaning towards one man or another are counted, he is ahead 49 percent to 46 percent. Quinnipiac's Peter Brown said in his poll that "Franken still faces an uphill battle in his quest to unseat Sen. Norm Coleman, with almost 20 percent of the voters in his own party voting for the Republican incumbent" CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Republican."

The company that makes Jim Beam bourbon, Canadian Club and Courvoisier has done a survey of about 100 Washington, D.C. bartenders in preparation for the conventions to determine their drink selections and bar behavior. We saw this first thanks to Paul Walsh of the Minneapolis Star Tribune.

Here are the findings you've been waiting for ...

• Democrats tip better than Republicans by a large margin.
• Republicans hit it harder: By 82 percent to 14 percent, they are more likely to order a drink straight up. Democrats, by 58 percent to 34 percent, are more likely to order a fruity drink.
• Democrats have better pick-up lines than Republicans by 74 percent to 14 percent. They also give better toasts by a margin of 63 percent to 36 percent.
• Republicans are a hair more likely to beat Democrats to happy hour, while Democrats have a 7 point advantage when it comes to being the last to go home.

The pollster did not include a margin of error but we assume it probably gets larger with each round.

There's deep meaning in here somewhere, though we haven't quite yet figured it out.

Today we update Ohio in our round-up of state match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down.

• Ohio: McCain has pulled even with Obama at 45 percent each with 11 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Aug. 12-14. The margin of error is 3.2 percent. In its July poll, Obama led by 8 points. While Obama leads 45 percent to 28 percent among independents (23 percent of the sample), he is having problems with his own base compared to McCain. Obama has a 75 percent to 17 percent lead among Democrats (42 percent of the sample) while McCain has an 89 percent to 7 percent lead among Republicans (35 percent of the sample). PPP says that the Democrats who have not embraced Obama are disproportionately white, female and middle-aged, "an indication that it could be supporters of Hillary Clinton who are holding out." A Quinnipiac University survey conducted July 23-29 had Obama leading by a statistically insignificant 46 percent to 44 percent lead with 8 percent undecided . The margin of error was 2.8 percent. About one-fifth of the supporters of each man said they might still change their minds before election day. The biggest gaps among demographic groups are voters under 34 who favor Obama by 22 points, and among blacks who back him 89 percent to 2 percent. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 21 had McCain leading Obama 46 percent to 40 percent with 7 percent choosing "other" and 7 percent undecided in a. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. McCain's lead was bigger if "leaners" are counted, Rasmussen said. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio was 57 percent to 39 percent compared to 50 percent to 46 percent for Obama. McCain's strength among Republicans was somewhat higher than Obama's among Democrats, 88 percent to 74 percent. Voters put more importance on reducing the price of gasoline over protecting the environment by 54 percent to 28 percent. They also believe that Afghanistan more than Iraq is the principal front in the war on terror and is the greatest threat to the U.S. Republicans have won three of the last five elections here, although George Bush's victory margins in the last two were by 3.5 points or less. CQ Politics' Election Forecast for Ohio is "No Clear Favorite."

The Pew Research Center has taken an in-depth look at the news audience and their habits in getting their information from broadcast, print and online, and how they view the credibility of each source. The survey, conducted April 30-June 1, produced an audience profile that will no doubt be grist for analysis by media organizations as well as political types who are always on the lookout about the best means to get their messages out. The topline result of the survey was to categorize the news audience into four groups:

• The biggest group, at 46 percent of those surveyed, are still Traditionalists who are older, less affluent and less educated and rely heavily on television for their news. Most have computers, but few use them to search for news.
• The next biggest group, at 23 percent, are Integrators, who get their news both from traditional sources, mainly television, but also get news on a typical day from online. They are mostly middle-aged, well-educated and affluent.
• Net-newsers, as the name suggests, rely primarily on the internet for news and are at the cutting edge of using new web features and other technologies. About twice as many of them will watch a news video on the web instead of on a nightly news broadcast. Their median age is 35, they are affluent and 8 in 10 have attended college. They make up 13 percent of the audience.
• The Disengaged, who make up 14 percent of the sample, are less affluent and educated than even traditionalists. Only 55 percent get news on a given day and only 20 percent knew the Democrats control the House.

Today we update Colorado in our round-up of state match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down.

• Colorado: Another poll confirms the closeness of the race here. McCain is leading Obama 44 percent to 41 percent with 3 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr, 2 percent for Ralph Nader and 8 percent undecided in a Rocky Mountain News/CBS 4 poll conducted Aug. 11-13. That result was within the poll's 4.38 percent margin of error. The survey found a "massive generational split" with Obama leading McCain 56 percent to 34 percent among voters under 35 years of age and McCain leading Obama 51 percent to 34 percent among those 65 and older. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Aug. 5-7 had Obama leading McCain 48 percent to 44 percent with 7 percent undecided in a. The margin of error was 3.2 percent. Obama was competitive with McCain among white voters, among whom the Republican leads by a bare 2 points, while holding a 51 percent to 36 percent among Hispanics who comprise 15 percent of the sample. PPP's Dean Debnam says that if Obama can "secure a draw" with McCain among whites, "he's almost definitely going to win the state." Obama also leads among independents, 50 percent to 35 percent. This is one of the states, along with Florida, Nevada and New Mexico, where Hispanics may be an important force. They make up 15 percent of the sample in the PPP poll and Obama leads among them 58 percent to 34 percent while running evenly with McCain among white voters. The state has gone Republican the last three elections (by less than 5 points in 2004), but the Obama camp thinks they can make it competitive.

Today we update Maine and Alaska, a classic "good news/bad news" combination for the Republicans.

• Maine: Republican Sen. Susan Collins has opened a 53 percent to 38 percent lead over Democratic Rep. Tom Allen in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Aug. 12. Five percent are undecided and the margin of error is 4.5 percent. Collins is viewed favorably by 67 percent of voters compared to 29 percent with a negative view, and Allen is viewed favorably by 54 percent compared to 37 percent. This month's lead doubles the 7 point advantage she held in mid-July. Her surge was helped by a 55 percent to 32 percent lead among unaffiliated voters plus the 29 percent support she is drawing from Democrats. Allen is backed by 74 percent of Democrats and 8 percent of Republicans. A poll by Critical Insights of Portland conducted June 1-27 says Collins leads Allen by 51 percent to 37 percent. CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Republican."

We're updating North Carolina today in our round-up of state match-ups between John McCain and Barack Obama.

• North Carolina: Obama continues to be competitive in a state that the Republicans have carried in the last five elections, but a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 13 finds McCain picking up a little ground. McCain leads Obama 46 percent to 42 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 8 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. But McCain widens that lead to 6 points when voters leaning one way or the other are included. In the last Rasmussen survey in mid-July, McCain led by 3. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 59 percent to 40 percent while Obama's is 51 percent to 48 percent. McCain has stronger support than Obama with his own base, drawing the backing of 87 percent of Republicans compared to Obama's 74 percent of Democrats. McCain has better than a 2-to-1 margin among white voters. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Aug. 9-11 gave McCain a 49 percent to 45 percent lead that's just a hair beyond the 3.9 percent margin of error. Three percent preferred "other" and 3 percent were undecided. McCain leads by 9 among men voters and the two men are statistically even among women. McCain leads among voters over 34, with the most pronounced advantage being a 13 point edge among voters over 65 (18 percent of the sample). McCain leads 60 percent to 33 percent among white voters (75 percent of the sample) while Obama leads 91 percent to 9 percent among blacks (19 percent of the sample). The economy is cited by voters as the top issue and Obama and McCain run evenly among them. A Research 2000 poll conducted July 28-30 had McCain ahead 47 percent to 43 percent with a 4 point margin of error, a narrowing of the gap of 5 points since its last survey in April. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 23-27 had McCain leading by a statistically insignificant 47 percent to 44 percent with 6 percent undecided and 3 percent favoring Libertarian Bob Barr. The margin of error was 3.4 percent. In late June, PPP had McCain ahead by 4 points. McCain has a 9 point lead among men. Obama led by 13 points among voters under 29 (13 percent of the sample) and McCain led 27 percent among those over 65 (17 percent of the sample). He led 57 percent to 34 percent among white voters (77 percent of the sample), counterbalancing Obama's huge 82 to 8 percent lead among black voters (20 percent of the sample). CQ Politics' Election Forecast lists this state as "Republican Favored."

The weekly Economist/YouGov poll conducted Aug. 11-13 has Barack Obama in a statistical dead heat with John McCain at 41 percent to 40 percent with 4 percent preferring "other," 12 percent undecided and 2 percent saying they will not vote. The margin of error is 4 points. Last week's poll had Obama with a 3 point edge.

Today we update three races worth watching: Minnesota, Colorado and Texas. And while you're checking out the Senate polls, read Bob Benenson's "The Top Five Senate Vulnerables, Revisited and Revised."

• Minnesota: Try to square these polls. In a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Aug. 13, Republican first-termer Norm Coleman is tied with Democrat Al Franken at 45 percent each with 5 percent preferring "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. That compares to a Quinnipiac University/Washington Post/ Wall Street Journal poll conducted July 14-22 showing Coleman with a 53 percent to 38 percent lead and 8 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.8 percent. Rasmussen does say that "things are beginning to lean in favor of" Coleman because if voters leaning towards one man or another are counted, he is ahead 49 percent to 46 percent. Quinnipiac's Peter Brown said in his poll that "Franken still faces an uphill battle in his quest to unseat Sen. Norm Coleman, with almost 20 percent of the voters in his own party voting for the Republican incumbent." A SurveyUSA poll conducted July 11-13 had Coleman ahead by 52 percent to 39 percent with 8 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. Check out our story, "Franken Stumbling in Minnesota Senate Race." CQ Politics changed the rating on this the race from "No Clear Favorite to "Leans Republican."

Lots of updates in the last two days in our state match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain. Today we update Texas, Washington State and Wisconsin, adding to yesterday's new polls on Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina Nevada, Florida and Kansas.

• Texas: McCain leads Obama 42 percent to 33 percent among registered voters with Libertarian Bob Barr at just under 5 percent. Ralph Nader at 2 percent and 17 percent undecided, according to a University of Texas-Austin poll conducted July 18-30. The margin of error is 3.77 percent. The poll includes a "feeling thermometer" for which voters were asked to say whether they felt very warm or cold towards a candidate. McCain rated 53.8 degrees to Obama's 50.3 degrees which rated as "no feeling at all." Two percent of Texans said the country's economy was better off than a year ago and 81 percent said it was worse. A Rasmussen Reports Poll conducted July 30 had McCain ahead 50 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and only 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. That's unchanged in this poll from a month ago. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ration was 60 percent to 37 percent while Obama's was 46 percent to 51 percent. McCain led 45 percent to 42 percent among unaffiliated voters. Republicans have comfortably carried the state in all of the last five elections. The CQ Politics Election Forecast calls Texas "Safe Republican."

Today we update Kansas and North Carolina. There's a bit of a surprise in the North Carolina poll.

• Kansas: Two-term Republican Roberts appears safely ahead of his Democratic challenger, Rep. Jim Slattery. A new Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 11 has Roberts ahead by a wide margin for the second straight month, leading 55 percent to 36 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. A June 11 survey by Rasmussen Reports had Roberts ahead 48 percent to 39 percent. Roberts is viewed favorably by 59 percent of voters while Slattery's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 45 percent to 46 percent. But perhaps the more challenging numbers for Slattery is that only 12 percent view him very favorably. The last Democrat to win a Senate seat in Kansas was George McGill who was elected in 1930 to replace Charles Curtis who had resigned to become Herbert Hoover's vice president, was re-elected in 1932 and served until 1939. CQ Politics rates this race "Republican Favored."

Today we update the key states of Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina Nevada and Florida in our match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain. We've also updated Kansas which, predictably, is not even close.

• Pennsylvania: Obama is leading McCain 44 percent to 36 percent with 4 percent preferring other and 16 percent undecided in a Franklin & Marshall College poll conducted Aug. 4-10. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. The last time F & M polled on this, in February, McCain led by a point. Three-quarters of voters are certain about their choice and the rest still deciding. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 43 percent to 29 percent compared to McCain's 39 percent to 32 percent. Forty-six percent of voters said they would be concerned if McCain was elected and 50 percent said they would not. Forty-six percent cited his views on policy issues (most believe he would continue President Bush's economic and foreign policies) and 50 percent were not concerned. Fifty-one percent of voters said they would be concerned if Obama was elected , with 39 percent citing lack of experience, 30 percent citing his policy stands and 12 percent believing he was "wishy-washy" and trying to please everyone. As in most national polls, Obama tops McCain 55 percent to 32 percent for best understanding the concern of ordinary Americans while McCain wins out 60 percent to 22 percent on experience and 53 percent to 29 percent on handling the war on terrorism. Obama has a big lead among independents and women, and McCain has the edge with Protestants and fundamentalist Christians. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted July 23-29 had Obama ahead 49 percent to 42 percent with 8 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.7 percent. In its last poll, Obama had been up by 12 points. Nineteen percent of Obama supporters say they might yet change their minds compared to 24 percent for McCain. The biggest demographic gaps include Obama's 11 point lead among women, his 91 percent to 1 percent lead among blacks and his 23 point lead among voters under 34. Quinnipiac attributes McCain's gains on Obama to his energy policy "being more in line in Pennsylvania" and Obama's continued struggle among white blue collar workers. Strategic Vision conducted a poll July 25-27 that had Obama ahead 49 percent to 40 percent with 11 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 23 had Obama ahead 47 percent to 42 percent over McCain. The margin of error was 4 points. Four percent preferred "other" and 6 percent were undecided. Fifty-eight percent of voters viewed Obama favorably as did 61 percent for McCain. The Los Angeles Times recently had a piece on McCain's effort to make inroads in Pennsylvania by stressing his bipartisanship. This key state was won by Democrats in the last two elections, but by 4 points or less each time.

Thanks to a solidifying GOP base and gains among white working class voters, John McCain has also but erased the lead Barack Obama has been holding in the Pew Research Center's polling. In a survey conducted July 31-Aug. 10 among registered voters, Obama now holds a bare 46 percent to 43 percent edge over McCain with the margin of error at 2 percent. Obama had led by 8 points in June, which was down to 5 points in July.

Compared to June, McCain made a gain of 5 points among Republicans pushing his level of support in the party up to 87 percent compared to 83 percent for Obama. He increased his margin over Obama among men by 5 points, among voters with a high school education or less by 7 points, voters earning between $50,000 and $74,999 by 8 points and those making under $30,000 by 6 points, and among white evangelicals by 7 points.

Pew says McCain has also "made gains on his leadership image. An even greater percentage of voters than in June now see McCain as the candidate who would use the best judgment in a crisis, and an increasing percentage see him as the candidate who can get things done."

Today we update Kentucky and Alaska in our round-up of state match-ups between John McCain and Barack Obama.

• Kentucky: McCain maintains his big lead over Obama, running ahead of him 55 percent to 37 percent with 4 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Aug. 9-11. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. McCain leads 60 percent to 33 percent among white voters. A Research 2000 poll conducted July 28-30 had McCain ahead 56 percent to 35 percent with a 4 point margin of error. In that poll, Obama got only 29 percent of the white vote, and the black vote in this state is small. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 29 showed a smaller but still significant McCain margin, with him leading 49 percent to 39 percent with 6 percent preferring "other" and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Last month, McCain led by 16 points. McCain leads among unaffiliated voters 45 percent to 38 percent, but that's down from a 14 point advantage. McCain's favorable-unfavorable ratio is 60 percent to 35 percent while Obama's is 48 percent to 50 percent. By more than 2-to-1, voters here put more priority in bringing down the price of gasoline than protecting the environment. They also believe by significant margins that Afghanistan, not Iraq, is the main front in the war on terror and is the biggest security threat to the U.S. Republicans have carried three of the five last elections with the exceptions being the two won by Bill Clinton. CQ Politics' political profile for Kentucky is "Safe Republican."

We're updating Senate race polls for Kentucky, Oregon, New Jersey and Iowa today.

• Kentucky: Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell is leading Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford, a Louisville businessman, 52 percent to 40 percent with 8 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Aug. 9-11. The margin of error is 4 percent. McConnell leads among men and women voters by 11 and 9 points respectively, and enjoys margins ranging between 12 and 19 points among voters over 34. In a SurveyUSA poll conducted June 13-16, McConnell had a smaller 50 percent to 46 percent lead - right on the 4 point margin of error - with 4 percent undecided. The last poll we had for Kentucky was a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted June 25 which showed McConnell ahead 48 percent to 41 percent with 4 percent preferring "other" and 8 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. This was a turnaround from Rasmussen's previous poll. McConnell benefited from much stronger Republican support than Lunsford has among Democrats. CQ Politics rates this race "Republican Favored."

The gloom among Americans about gasoline prices seems to have subsided somewhat as the fall in the price of oil has had its ripple effect at the pumps. A Gallup poll conducted Aug. 7-10 found that in contrast to last month - when nearly 9 out of 10 Americans predicted prices would be higher by year's end than now - only 40 percent expect them to increase a little or a lot. Thirty-seven percent expect some decrease and 21 percent believe they will stay the same. Gallup editor Frank Newport said, "It's uncommon to see the type of change evident in responses to this type of question in as little as one month." Of course, while no one expects gasoline prices to return to the levels they were before the huge run-up in the cost of oil over the last year, that pessimism Gallup found last month was hardly surprising given how many media stories there were about the era of cheap gasoline being over. Just type into a Google search box: era cheap gasoline over.

Check out a recent piece in Foreign Policy: Seven Questions. A Return to Cheap Oil?

Today we update the competitive states of Colorado and Virginia in our match-ups between John McCain and Barack Obama. There are also updates for Iowa and Oregon. Be sure to also check out the CQ Politics' Election Forecasts for the states that are running all month.

• Colorado: Obama is leading McCain 48 percent to 44 percent with 7 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Aug. 5-7. The margin of error is 3.2 percent. PPP's The key to victory for Obama is his competitiveness with McCain among white voters, among whom the Republican leads by a bare 2 points, while Obama has a 51 percent to 36 percent among Hispanics who comprise 15 percent of the sample. PPP's Dean Debnam says that if Obama can "secure a draw" with McCain among whites, "he's almost definitely going to win the state." Obama also leads among independents, 50 percent to 35 percent. a Quinnipiac University/Washington Post/Wall Street Journal poll conducted July 14-22 had McCain is leading Obama 46 percent to 44 percent with 7 percent undecided and a 2.6 percent margin of error. Obama led by 5 points in this poll last month. This poll showed a big gender gap here with Obama having an 11 point edge among women and McCain leading by 18 points among men, in contrast to PPP's survey which did not find that. Colorado is one of the states where Hispanics are a key voting bloc and Obama leads by 28 points. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 21 had Obama is leading McCain 49 percent to 42 percent. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. However, the contest falls within the margin of error if "leaners" are included. Last month, Obama led by 2 points. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable numbers are 52 percent to 48 percent and McCain's are 61 percent to 39 percent. In most states where Rasmussen has asked the question so far, voters care more about bringing down the price of gasoline than protecting the environment, but in Colorado they split about evenly. But like voters in other states, they see Afghanistan rather than Iraq as the main front in the war on terrorism and as the greatest threat to national security. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 9-10 by had Obama ahead of McCain 47 percent to 43 percent with 10 percent undecided and a 3 point margin of error. This is one of the states, along with Florida, Nevada and New Mexico, where Hispanics may be an important force. They make up 15 percent of the sample in the PPP poll and Obama leads among them 58 percent to 34 percent while running evenly with McCain among white voters. The state has gone Republican the last three elections (by less than 5 points in 2004), but the Obama camp thinks they can make it competitive.

Barack Obama leads John McCain 42 percent to 39 percent with 4 percent preferring "other," and 13 percent undecided in an Economist/YouGovPolimetrix poll conducted Aug. 4-6. That puts them within the 4 point margin of error. There's a lot of stuff in this poll and it's worth a look.

The poll did not find much of a gender gap. When it comes to age, Obama leads 57 percent to 21 percent among voters under 29 while McCain has a 9 point lead among voters over 45. McCain leads by 9 points among white men while Obama leads 84 percent to 2 percent among blacks (about 11 percent of the sample) and 48 percent to 30 percent among Hispanics (about 7 percent of the sample). Forty-one percent of those surveyed predicted a very close election, 32 percent believe Obama will win and 18 percent say McCain will win.

Today we update the Senate races in Colorado and Michigan.

• Colorado: Democrat Mark Udall leads former Republican Rep. Bob Schaffer 47 percent to 41 percent with 12 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Aug. 5-7. The margin of error is 3.2 percent. PPP's results in this key state paint a rosier picture for the Democrats - both in the Senate race and the John McCain-Barack Obama contest - than did a recent Quinnipiac University poll. PPP notes, thought, it is a slip of 3 points for Udall since its last survey. Udall ties Schaffer among white voters, but has a 16 point lead among Hispanics who made up 15 percent of the sample. The Quinnipiac University/Washington Post/ Wall Street Journal poll conducted July 14-22 had the race tied at 44 percent each with 11 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.6 percent. Udall had a 10 point lead in Quinnipiac's previous survey. Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 21 had Udall ahead 47 percent to 43 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. That was within the poll's 4.5 percent margin of error. Rasmussen had Udall ahead by 9 a month ago, and its new numbers suggest a closer race than the results from a Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 9-10 which had Udall ahead 47 percent to 38 percent with 14 percent undecided. The margin of error in that poll was 3 percent. A Quinnipiac University/Wall Street Journal/Washington Post poll conducted June 17-24 which had him ahead 48 percent to 38 percent. Udall and Schaffer are vying to fill the seat of retiring GOP Sen. Wayne Allard. CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Democrat."

One of the discussions stirred by the historic fact of the first black nominee-to-be for President of a major party has been about the so-called "Bradley Effect" which got its name after Republican George Deukmejian defeated Los Angeles' African-American Mayor Tom Bradley for the governorship of California, even though Bradley had been leading in the polls. It surfaced again after Hillary Clinton upset Barack Obama in the New Hampshire primary.

There's a good post on this over at FiveThirtyEight.com and its headline makes clear its conclusion: "The Persistent Myth of the Bradley Effect." The post says, "polling numbers from the primaries suggested no presence of a Bradley Effect. On the contrary, it was Barack Obama -- not Hillary Clinton -- who somewhat outperformed his polls on Election Day." That also was pretty much the conclusion of a Pew Research Center article last March.

Gallup says it's become a little easier to determine how much of a bounce the presidential nominees get when they announce their running-mate because, in recent years, the choices have become known in advance of the conventions, making it possible to separate its effect from that of the convention "bounce." Gallup says the impact dating back to 1996 has ranged from 3 points to 9 points with the smallest being the George Bush's selection of Dick Cheney and the largest being Bob Dole's choice of Jack Kemp in 1996.

The other day we wrote a post inspired by a piece in the New Yorker about a 1908 political ex-classic that argued public opinion takes a second seat to the power of "organization groups" in influencing politicians and leaders. ("Organization groups" meant groups like the American Association of Retired Persons or the National Rifle Association). One of the perceptions we were testing was the belief that politicians are often slaves to what the polls tell them.

Our colleague Madison Powers, who writes a column every Wednesday for CQ Politics, brought our attention to a book written in 2000 by trwo academics titled "Politicians Don't Pander: Political Manipulation and the Loss of Democratic Responsiveness."

Here's some excerpts from the synopsis of that book:

Public opinion polls are everywhere. Journalists report their results without hesitation, and political activists of all kinds spend millions of dollars on them, fueling the widespread assumption that elected officials "pander" to public opinion--that they tailor their policy decisions to the results of polls...

...In fact, when not facing election, contemporary presidents and members of Congress routinely ignore the public's policy preferences and follow their own political philosophies, as well as those of their party's activists, their contributors, and their interest group allies. Politicians devote substantial time, effort, and money to tracking public opinion, not for the purposes of policymaking, but to change public opinion--to determine how to craft their public statements and actions to win support for the policies they and their supporters want...

...Taking two recent, dramatic episodes--President Clinton's failed health care reform campaign, and Newt Gingrich's "Contract with America"--as examples, the authors show how both used public opinion research and the media to change the public's mind...

We're updating Michigan and Missouri today in the state match-ups between John McCain and Barack Obama. Also, be sure to check out the latest state-by-state election forecasts that CQ Politics is running all month.

• Michigan: Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 40 percent with 5 percent preferring "other" and 8 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted August 7. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 54 percent to 45 percent while McCain's is 55 percent to 43 percent. A third of voters say McCain is too old to be President while a plurality - 47 percent - say Obama is too inexperienced. Voters are split fairly evenly on which candidate would be best for the domestic auto industry. A Public Policy Polling conducted July 23-27 had Obama leading McCain 46 percent to 43 percent - within the 3.3 percent margin of error. Ten percent were undecided. PPP's June poll had Obama up by 9 percent. The pollster attributed Obama's slippage to a decline in support among Republicans from 19 percent to 9 percent and a gain by McCain among whites, going from a small disadvantage to a 10 point lead. Twenty percent of independents are undecided and given that they comprise 27 percent of the sample, and Democrats and Republicans are nearly even at 37 percent and 34 percent respectively, they will obviously be a key to victory here. Obama had also slipped two points compared to last month to a 46 percent to 42 percent edge over McCain with 9 percent undecided in a Quinnipiac University/Washington/Post poll conducted July 14-22. The margin of error is 2.4 percent. (By contrast, a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 10 showed Obama gaining grown, with a 47 percent to 39 percent lead. His lead in June had been a statistically insignificant 3 points). Obama leads 12 points among women and McCain leads 5 points among men. Among white voters, McCain leads by 8 points and Obama leads among black voters by 86 points. Obama still has a 10 point advantage among voters under 34, but the size of his lead has dropped. Michigan has gone Democrat in the last five elections with the only Republican to win being the first George Bush in 1988.

Today we add Massachusetts to our round-up.

• Massachusetts: Democratic Sen. John Kerry leads Jeff Beatty, whose biography describes him as a Special Forces veteran, FBI special agent and CIA operations officer, by 56 percent to 29 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted August 5. Kerry is viewed favorably by 59 percent of voters while Beatty's name recognition problem is underlined by the fact that 41 percent answer "not sure" on this question. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Democrat."

Today we update Wisconsin, Massachusetts, Oregon, New York and Alabama in our round-up of state match-ups between John McCain and Barack Obama.

• Wisconsin: Obama leads McCain 44 percent to 38 percent with 18 percent undecided in a Wisconsin Policy Research Institute poll conducted Aug. 3-4. The margin of error is 4 points. The modest size of the margin is somewhat surprising given some of the other numbers in the poll. Obama had leads of about 2-to-1 on the two issues that voters identified as the most important, the economy and Iraq. The favorable-to-unfavorable numbers for Obama were 51 percent to 31 percent while McCain's were 46 percent to 37 percent. A Quinnipiac University/Washington/Post poll conducted July 14-22 had Obama leading McCain 50 percent to 39 percent with 9 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 percent. Obama had a 25 point lead among women voters compared to McCain's 6 point advantage among men. He also led by almost 2-to-1 among voters under 34. Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 8 had Obama ahead 50 percent to 39 percent after holding only a 2 point lead a month earlier. Ten percent were undecided and the margin of error is 4.5 percent. Both men have high favorability ratings - Obama at 61 percent and McCain at 57 percent. Twenty-eight percent believe McCain is too old to be President and 40 percent say Obama is too inexperienced (50 percent reject that view). By 58 percent to 35 percent, voters want the next President to concentrate on getting U.S. troops home from Iraq rather than having the goal of winning the war. Two previous polls also had Obama ahead here. Democrats have carried the state in the last five elections, but by less than one point in 2004 and 2000.

We obviously think polls have their importance and place in coverage of politics which is why we devote a blog to them and factor them in to how CQ Politics does its race ratings. (They are only one of many factors).

There's a timely piece by Nicholas Lemann in the current New Yorker that made us ponder a bit on what part of the story polls tell ... and what they don't tell.

Lemann was writing about what he called a political ex-classic published in 1908 by Arthur Fisher Bentley called "The Process of Government: A Study of Social Pressures."

"Its point--relentlessly hammered home--can be stated quite simply: All politics and all government are the result of the activities of groups. Any other attempt to explain politics and government is doomed to failure."

The New Yorker's "Shouts and Murmurs" feature this week catalogs some polls we wish we had (if they were only real). Quoting liberally:

• A New Orleans Times-Picayune/Bravo/Popular Mechanics poll among women age twenty to twenty-one who are not men, found that ninety-seven per cent of respondents were too far away to be interviewed.
• Hartford Courant/CNN/Starbucks poll to be taken by qualified voters who, an earlier ABC/Sacramento Bee/Publishers Clearing House straw poll predicted, expect a win for either the Democrats or the Republicans come November, unless Congress acts.
• In a poll conducted by the Ohio Bureau of Motor Vehicles for Indiana State University, only seventy-five per cent of respondents this year thought "with certainty" that they were being interviewed.
• Fox News/Toronto Star/Amway poll, released but not yet caught, charts a severe downturn in support for efforts not to not repeal the NAFTA treaty.

A CBS News poll conducted July 31-August 5 shows pretty much the same results as other recent national polls by major organizations (not including the daily tracking polls): Barack Obama leads John McCain 45 percent to 39 percent with 13 percent undecided, and a margin of error of 3 points. That tracks with a Time poll and an AP-Ipsos poll conducted in roughly the same time period that had Obama ahead by 5 and 6 points respectively. The CBS figures are the same that they were in its poll last month as was the case with the Time poll. (Columnist David Brooks of the New York Times took a crack the other day at trying to explain why there has been so little movement for Obama).

Today we update New Jersey, Texas and Alabama in our round-up of polling on Senate races.

• New Jersey: Democrat Frank Lautenberg leads former Republican Rep. Dick Zimmer 51 percent to 33 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 4. That's up from his 13 point lead last month. Lautenberg leads 45 percent to 28 percent among unaffiliated voters and by 60 percent to 25 percent among women, while Zimmer leads 43 percent to 40 percent among men. Lautenberg's favorable-to-unfavorable numbers are 48 percent to 45 percent and Zimmer's are 37 percent to 41 percent. A Strategic Vision poll conducted July 11-13 had Lautenberg ahead 48 percent to 32 percent with 20 percent undecided. CQ Politics rates this race "Democrat Favored."

Barack Obama is leading John McCain 46 percent to 41 percent in a Time Magazine poll conducted July 31-Aug. 4. The margin of error is 3 percent. That's the same size lead Obama held in this poll in June.

Time says that the survey indicates some trouble signs for Obama. He does well on "atmospherics" such as being seen as more likeable (besting McCain 65 percent to 20 percent), on which candidate would really bring change (Obama leads 61 percent to 17 percent) and on who understands voters' concerns the best, (Obama leads 48 percent to 35 percent). But on specific issues, Obama only leads McCain 43 percent to 39 percent on the economy, down a point from June, and McCain is seen as the candidate better equipped to manage the Iraq war by 51 percent to 36 percent. McCain also leads when it comes to voter confidence in who could better handle the war on terror, by 56 percent to 29 percent.

Obama also enjoys an "enthusiasm" advantage, as other polls have shown. Forty-nine percent of his supporters describe themselves as enthusiastic compared to 21 percent of McCain supporters. Twenty-seven percent of Republicans say they are "not very" or "not at all" enthusiastic about McCain while only 10 percent of Democrats say that of Obama.

We are updating Florida again in our round-up of state match-ups between John McCain and Barack Obama.

• Florida: There have been a batch of polls for this state and they all pretty much add up to the same headline: Florida is up for grabs. McCain is leading Obama 47 percent to 44 percent with 8 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 30-Aug.2. But that's within the 3.5 percent margin of error. McCain enjoys higher support among fellow Republicans at 84 percent than Obama does among Democrats at 76 percent. McCain leads 55 percent to 36 percent among whites (67 percent of the sample), and the two are in a statistical tie among Hispanics (16 percent of the sample) with Obama ahead 48 percent to 45 percent. Obama leads among blacks (14 percent of the sample) 80 percent to 15 percent. Obama has a 16 point advantage among voters under 29 (15 percent of the sample) while McCain leads by 23 points among voters over 65 (19 percent of the sample). McCain leads by 11 points among women. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Aug. 1-3 had McCain ahead 50 percent to 44 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.8 percent. McCain had a 7 point lead among women. Obama leads by almost 2-to-1 among voters under 34 who made up 17 percent of the sample, but McCain leads by at least 12 points in all other age groups. McCain leads 57 percent to 38 percent among white voters (73 percent of the sample) while Obama leads 84 percent to 16 percent among blacks (11 percent) and 48 percent to 42 percent among Hispanics (13 percent). Fifty-eight percent of voters cited the economy as the top issue in the campaign and they split evenly between McCain and Obama. Iraq was named by only 8 percent and Obama led McCain there by 23 points. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted July 23-29 had Obama leading 46 percent to 44 percent with 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.8 percent. While Floridians seemed split in this poll about which candidate has the better energy policy, they support by 60 percent to 33 percent President Bush's call for more offshore oil drilling, which McCain has also advocated. About one-fifth of Obama voters and 16 percent of McCain supporters said they might change their mind before the election. The differences between the two among men and women was not huge, but McCain leads among white voters 53 percent to 39 percent and Obama among black voters 89 percent to 2 percent. Obama's edge among independents has fallen from 10 points to 5 points. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 22 had Obama ahead of McCain 46 percent to 45 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain led by 7 points last month. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio was 51 percent to 47 percent and McCain's was 60 percent to 39 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted July 19-21 had McCain ahead of Obama 47 percent to 45 percent with 8 percent undecided, a difference within the 4 point margin of error. McCain had led by 5 last month. Republicans have carried the state in four of the last five elections including, of course, the hotly-contested outcome in 2000 where the state was awarded to George Bush by a hair.

There is already a pretty clear picture of who the core constituency groups are for Barack Obama and John McCain, as well as which groups' allegiances are still up in the air. But Gallup has put together some useful numbers on both categories based on polling conducted July 21-27.

The principle group that falls to neither camp are independents, who are pretty evenly divided with McCain leading 43 percent to 40 percent. That hasn't changed much since the start of June. The margin of error is 1 percent.

By a whopping 76-11 margin, respondents said they've heard more about Obama than John McCain recently, and 48 percent (51 percent among independents) said they've heard "too much" about Obama. And, the pollsters write: "by a slight, but statistically significant margin - 22% to 16% - people say that recently they have a less rather than more favorable view of the putative Democratic nominee."

There is some good news for Obama here: Americans view his advertising as positive messages about himself rather than attacks on his opponent (38-13 percent), while a similar number view McCain's ads as mostly negative attacks on Obama (31 percent to 19 percent).

The telephone survey was done July 28 - August 3 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent.

Barack Obama leads John McCain 47 percent to 41 percent in an AP-Ipsos poll conducted July 31-Aug. 4. The margin of error is 3.1 percent. McCain leads by 10 points among white voters and runs evenly with Obama among men. Obama leads by 13 points among women, 30 points among voters under the age of 34, and by 55 points among blacks, Hispanics and other minorities.

Today we update Florida, Massachusetts and Washington state in our state match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain.

• Florida: A SurveyUSA poll conducted conducted Aug. 1-3 is the first in a batch of recent polls that has McCain ahead beyond the margin of error. McCain leads Obama 50 percent to 44 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.8 percent. Unlike a lot of other states, McCain has a 7 point lead among women. Obama leads by almost 2-to-1 among voters under 34 who made up 17 percent of the sample, but McCain leads by at least 12 points in all other age groups. McCain leads 57 percent to 38 percent among white voters (73 percent of the sample) while Obama leads 84 percent to 16 percent among blacks (11 percent) and 48 percent to 42 percent among Hispanics (13 percent). Fifty-eight percent of voters cited the economy as the top issue in the campaign and they split evenly between McCain and Obama. Iraq was named by only 8 percent and Obama led McCain there by 23 points. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted July 23-29 had Obama leading 46 percent to 44 percent with 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.8 percent. While Floridians seemed split in this poll about which candidate has the better energy policy, they support by 60 percent to 33 percent President Bush's call for more offshore oil drilling, which McCain has also advocated. About one-fifth of Obama voters and 16 percent of McCain supporters said they might change their mind before the election. The differences between the two among men and women was not huge, but McCain leads among white voters 53 percent to 39 percent and Obama among black voters 89 percent to 2 percent. Obama's edge among independents has fallen from 10 points to 5 points. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 22 had Obama ahead of McCain 46 percent to 45 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain led by 7 points last month. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio was 51 percent to 47 percent and McCain's was 60 percent to 39 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted July 19-21 had McCain ahead of Obama 47 percent to 45 percent with 8 percent undecided, a difference within the 4 point margin of error. McCain had led by 5 last month. Republicans have carried the state in four of the last five elections including, of course, the hotly-contested outcome in 2000 where the state was awarded to George Bush by a hair.

As members of Congress headed home for recess to tend to their states and districts, registered voters had this to say about them: most of us don't believe you deserve re-election. A USA Today/Gallup survey conducted July 25-27 found that only 36 percent of voters say most members of Congress deserve re-election, the lowest ebb in any Gallup measurement during any recent midterm or election year. You have to go back to 1992 to find the last previous low, which was 29 percent.

Of course, just like generic polls about which party voters would like to see control Congress, surveys like these don't really reflect how people will vote when it comes to their own representative. In fact, when asked if the representatives of their own districts should be re-elected, 57 percent of voters answered "yes."

Today, we update Missouri and Connecticut, and add Oklahoma, Arizona, Kentucky and Alabama.

• Missouri: McCain is leading Obama in a SurveyUSA poll conducted July 29-31 by 49 percent to 44 percent with 7 percent undecided and a 2.6 percent margin of error. McCain has an 8 point lead among men and a 15 point lead among whites (86 percent of the sample), while lagging Obama only slightly among women and by the usual huge margin among blacks (11 percent of the sample). The biggest age group difference is among those over 65 (about a fifth of the sample) where McCain leads by 15 points. Independents prefer McCain by 21 points. The economy is the top issue for Missourians and Obama leads there by a bare 49 percent to 46 percent. A Research 2000 poll conducted July 7-10 for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch KMOV-TV had McCain ahead 48 percent to 43 percent with 9 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.5. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio among voters was 54 percent to 37 percent while McCain's was 49 percent to 43 percent. McCain had an 11 point lead among white voters while Obama has an overwhelming lead among blacks. Obama had a slim 4 point lead among independents. Among age groups, the only one in which either candidate has a big advantage is with voters under 29 where Obama is ahead by 15 points. Thirty-five percent of Missourians think McCain's age will be important to voters. The top five issues for voters (in this order) were the economy, Iraq, lowering gas prices, health care and terrorism. Of those, voters believed Obama would better deal with the economy, gas prices and health care by 16 points, 15 points and 23 points respectively, the two ran about even on Iraq, while McCain led Obama on the terrorism issue by 19 points. On Iraq, 46 percent said the U.S.'s next move should be to withdraw some troops and 27 percent said it should withdraw all the troops. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 7 had McCain ahead of Obama 47 percent to 42 percent with a 4.5 percent margin of error. Public Policy Polling Conducted a survey July 2-5 that had McCain leading 47 percent to 44 percent with 9 percent undecided and a 3.6 percent margin of error. Republicans have won 7 of the last 10 elections here with George Bush winning by about 7 points and 3 points in 2004 and 2000, and Clinton winning by about 6 in 1996 and about 11 in 1992

There are two polls out today dealing with racial matters - on by Gallup on Americans' perception of how widespread racism is, and a Rasmussen Reports survey on where Americans come down on affirmative action.

USA Today/Gallup, based on data collected between June 5 and July 6, found that Americans believe by 56 percent to 42 percent that racism against blacks is widespread in the U.S. Whites believe that by 51 percent to 46 percent, blacks hold that view 78 percent to 20 percent and Hispanics by 59 percent to 38 percent. Pluralities of all Americans say that discrimination is a major factor in blacks' education and income levels, while a majority say it is a key factor in black prison rates. However, on the question of whether it has a major effect on black life expectancy, those polled say no by 35 percent to 31 percent.

Despite Barack Obama’s weakness during the Democratic nomination fight among blue collar white voters, he holds a 47 percent to 37 percent lead over John McCain among low-wage white workers although 16 percent say they have no opinion, support someone else or do not plan to vote, according to a Washington Post, Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation and Harvard University conducted June 18 to July 7. (Story, poll).

The survey of low-wage workers - the first installment was yesterday - found that Obama leads McCain 58 percent to 28 percent among the overall group, who comprise 22 percent of American adults. The sample included workers 18 to 64 years old who put in at least 30 hours a week but earned $27,000 or less last year. Thiry-eight percent described themselves as moderate, 28 percent as conservative and 27 percent as liberal.

Poll after poll - most recently from the Pew Research Center and CNN/Opinion Research - have documented how hard hit Americans as a whole are feeling by the downward spiral of the economy, and the whipsaw of rising prices and stagnant wages.

Now an extensive survey by the Washington Post, Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation and Harvard University conducted June 18 to July 7 described the "financial insecurity" that has gripped low-wage workers who account for nearly a quarter of all American adults. The survey included those who worked at least 30 hours a week and earned no more than $27,000 a year.

The voters now have their say - at least as reported in a new Rasmussen Reports poll - on who was dealing race cards, Barack Obama with his "dollar bill" remark or John McCain with his television ad picturing Obama in a sequence with Britney Spears and Paris Hilton.

The verdict: those who found Obama's remark racist far outnumbered those who thought that of the ad.

It could be asked if this poll used the right examples on each side for comparison. In the often-convoluted way that race makes itself felt in American politics, some have suggested that simply the fact that the McCain camp chose to seize on Obama's remarks and accused him of injecting the race card had in and of itself injected race back into the campaign. And perhaps it was McCain's decision to make the accusation itself that should have been measured against the perceived intent of what Obama said when it came to judging who had injected race into the campaign.

Race re-entered the campaign in a big way, just as it did during the nomination fight between Obama and Hillary Clinton, when McCain's campaign accused Obama of playing the race card after this Obama remark (video) during stops in small-town Missouri: "They're going to try to say, 'Well, you know, he's got a funny name, and he doesn't look like all the presidents on the dollar bills and the five-dollar bills,' and they're going to send out nasty e-mails."

Into the mix came the now famous McCain ad suggesting Obama was riding a wave of celebrity like Britney Spears and Paris Hilton, an ad that some Obama supporters suggested had racial overtones by linking Obama to young white women. Obama later said the ads were "cynical" and not "racist."

Sixty-three percent of those surveyed by Rasmussen agreed that the McCain ad was not racist. Twenty-two percent said it was and this number included only 18 percent of whites. However, among black voters, 58 percent found the ad to be racist. (By the way, her objection wasn't on the issue of race, but Paris Hilton's mother said today in the Huffington Post that she didn't care much for the ad in which her daughter was featured).

But when it came to Obama's remarks, voters judged them racist by 53 percent to 38 percent. That included 53 percent of white voters and 44 percent of black voters.

Perhaps just as importantly in the long run, the poll also shows that one apparent McCain strategy is working - namely, producing ads that, in themselves, attract free news coverage and generate interest in them. Rasmussen said that 69 percent of voters said they had seen news coverage of the ad.

We're updating the state match-ups between John McCain and Barack Obama for Alaska, Kentucky and North Carolina.

• Alaska: McCain leads Obama 44 percent to 39 percent with 7 percent choosing "other" and 10 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 30. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. That's about the same as Rasmussen's July 21 poll. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable numbers are 65 percent to 34 percent while Obama's are 52 percent to 45 percent. Republicans have carried this state in the last five elections and did so by 20 points or more except for 1992 when independent Ross Perot siphoned off GOP votes.

For those of you really into the subject of polling, the "Numbers Guy" who writes a blog on - you guessed it - "the way numbers are used, and abused" has a piece on "interactive voice response" or IVR polls which, in English, means surveys that are automated. Numbers are automatically dialed, and responses solicited to questions asked in a recorded message. As Numbers Guy, Carl Bialik, notes, these are obviously cheaper than the live-interview surveys such as Gallup's.

Many pollsters and media organizations have qualms about this kind of polling and many news organizations won't touch them, such as ABC News whose polling policy prohibits use of "pre-recorded autodialed surveys, even when a random-digit dialed telephone sample is employed."

The point of Bialik's post is to ask why, given that they have "solid record of forecasting election results."

In Poll Tracker, two of the pollsters who use IVRs are Public Policy Polling and SurveyUSA. If you want to hear what their recorded message sounds like, click on their names.

We're updating Kentucky and North Carolina, states where the Republican incumbents had seemed to be on shaky ground a couple of months ago but now have more breathing room.

• Kentucky: Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell has increased his lead over Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford, a Louisville businessman, increased his lead in one recent poll and slipped 1 point in another, although he still enjoys a comfortable margin. A Research 2000 survey conducted July 28-30 had McConnell ahead 49 percent to 38 percent with a 4 point margin of error. That's a drop of one point since its last survey. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 29 had McConnell increasing his advantage by 7 points since June, running ahead now by 50 percent to 38 percent with 4 percent preferring "other" and 8 percent undecided. McConnell was viewed favorably in the Rasmussen poll by 55 percent of voters compared to 35 percent who see him negatively, while Lunsford is viewed positively by 42 percent of voters compared to 45 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. In May, McConnell had been down 5 points. In a SurveyUSA poll conducted June 13-16, McConnell had a smaller 50 percent to 46 percent lead - right on the 4 point margin of error - with 4 percent undecided. McConnell benefited from much stronger Republican support than Lunsford has among Democrats. CQ Politics rates this race "Republican Favored."

Pollsters have done a number of measures about how much Barack Obama accomplished politically with the trip abroad that was meant to deal with questions about his foreign policy credentials and is up to the job of commander-in-chief. CNN/Opinion Research said he didn't get a bump in general, and a Gallup survey conducted July 25-27 today says that, in specific, public opinion did not change on this question despite the trip. And John McCain still reins dominant on both counts.

Gallup says Americans by a 52 percent to 41 percent margin say Obama is up to the job of commander-in-chief compared to a 55 percent to 40 percent in June. Same goes with public views of how good a job Americans think Obama would do on the issue of the Middle East, terrorism, Iraq and Afghanistan. Fifty-one percent said he would do a good job compared to 48 percent, and that is one point tighter than June when the numbers were 49 percent to 45 percent.

Seventy-six percent say McCain would do best as commander-in-chief compared to 52 percent for Obama, and 67 percent give the top marks on the terrorism issue to McCain compared to 45 percent for Obama. Iraq is a closer call, no doubt because a majority of Americans now say invading was a mistake. Fifty-three percent say McCain would do a better job compared to 48 percent for Obama.

Obama's counterbalance is his strength against McCain on domestic issues, something highlighted also in a Pew Research Center poll yesterday. Americans say Obama would do a better job on the economy by 54 percent to 43 percent and on energy issues and gasoline prices by 50 percent to 39 percent.

Today we're updating our state match-ups of Barack Obama and John McCain with Texas, Montana and Kentucky.

• Texas: McCain leads Obama 50 percent to 421 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports Poll conducted July 30. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. That's unchanged in this poll from a month ago. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ration is 60 percent to 37 percent while Obama's is 46 percent to 51 percent. McCain leads 45 percent to 42 percent among unaffiliated voters. Republicans have comfortably carried the state in all of the last five elections.