There's a lot of talk this election season about how changing demographics are turning states into purple from their traditional red and blue. Public Policy Polling took a closer look at this phenomenon in North Carolina by comparing the preferences of native North Carolinians (54 percent) to non-natives (46 percent).

PPP's most recent overall survey, conducted Aug. 20-23, had McCain with a statistically-insignificant 45 percent to 42 percent margin. Its look at the native/non-native divide, conducted during the same period, had McCain leading 48 percent to 40 percent among natives, but behind Obama 46 percent to 41 percent among non-natives. Obama has more support among non-native Democrats (77 percent) than he does among native ones (65 percent).

When it comes to independents, who make up 10 percent of voters, newcomers favor Obama 50 percent to 32 percent while natives favor McCain 47 percent to 22 percent.

The Senate race follows the same pattern. Overall, PPP has Democrat Kay Hagan leading incumbent Elizabeth Dole 42 percent to 39 percent (the margin of error is 3.3 percent), but Dole leads Hagan by that same margin among natives, while Hagan leads among non-natives cent to 35 percent.

Barack Obama is leading John McCain 48 percent to 42 percent with 4 percent favoring neither and 6 percent expressing no opinion in Gallup's daily tracking poll conducted Aug. 28-30. The margin of error is 2 percent. The interviewing period included both the immediate reaction to Obama's acceptance speech and John McCain's choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate.

Barack Obama did better than the 2000 and 2004 presidential candidates with his acceptance speech, with 58 percent of Americans giving it positive marks and, among them, 35 percent calling it "excellent," according to a Gallup survey conducted Aug. 29, the night after the speech.

While 62 percent of Democrats called it excellent in addition to another 21 percent who labeled it good, only 12 percent of Republicans said it was excellent and 25 percent said it was good. Fifty-two percent of independents called it excellent or good.

Rasmussen Reports conducted a quick poll on John McCain's choice for running mate, Sarah Palin, that says she made a "good first impression." Rasmussen reported yesterday that 67 percent of Americans din't know enough about her to form an opinion, but Scott Rasmussen says that more respondents were able to express their views in this poll because it was conducted after the announcement when there was more news about her.

The findings:

• Likely voters say by 40 percent to 32 percent that McCain made the right choice and 28 percent were not sure.
• Thirty-five percent said the choice of Palin made it more likely they would vote for McCain, 33 percent less likely and 28 percent said it would have no impact on their decision.
• Forty-four percent say Palin is not ready to be President, 29 percent believe she is and 26 percent were not sure.
• Thirty-seven percent regard Palin as very conservative, 32 percent say "somewhat conservative, 13 percent say moderate and 16 percent are not sure.
• Palin is regarded favorably by 53 percent of voters, unfavorably by 26 percent and 18 percent are not familiar with her.

Now that John McCain has chosen a woman as running mate, Gallup reviews the bidding on the gender gap base on tracking poll data for the month. McCain leads among men voters by 48 percent to 42 percent while Obama has the advantage among women, 49 percent to 39 percent. Among independent white voters (Gallup says there is little difference on gender among blacks and Hispanics), McCain leads 56 percent to 35 percent among men while Obama leads by only 46 percent to 42 percent among women.

The Democratic convention has bounced Barack Obama to an 8 point lead over John McCain in Gallup's daily tracking poll conducted Aug. 26-28. Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 41 percent with 1 percent preferring "other," 4 percent "neither," and 5 percent having "no opinion." The margin of error is 2 percent. Obama's largest lead in the tracking poll at any point since he clinched the nomination had been 9 points in late July. Going into the convention, he was polling 45 percent and was essentially tied with McCain. How long the predictable bounce will last is subject to some different factors this year: the combination of today's announcement of John McCain's running mate on the heels of the Democratic Convention and the fact that the GOP convention starts so soon after the Democrats.

The themes and issues Barack Obama hits in his acceptance speech tonight should be a good guide to what he and his campaign feels it still has to accomplish, and while a speech to a stadium packed with 75,000 partisans may not be the place to get down in the weeds about his policy positions, a Pew Research Center poll suggests he has work to do in the coming weeks in building public awareness of where he stands.

The survey says Americans know more about Obama's personal story than they do about those policy positions. Sixty-two percent know a lot or fair amount about his life, but when it comes to his foreign policy beliefs, 48 percent say they know a lot or fair amount about them, and 56 percent say they same about his economic positions.

John McCain's life story is about as well known as Obama's. He fares somewhat better than Obama on public awareness of his foreign policy stands (54 percent) and just below Obama about knowledge of his economic positions (also, 54 percent).

Looking just at independents, 55 percent say they know a lot or a fair amount about McCain's foreign policy positions compared to 42 percent for Obama. Obama and McCain come out about the same on awareness of independents about their economic positions.

Our latest round-up of state match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates Ohio, California and Idaho. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.

• Ohio: Every new poll confirms that this is a real toss-up. Obama and McCain are tied at 40 percent with 20 percent undecided in an Akron Buckeye Pollconducted July 17-Aug. 17. Obama's "strong" support was 22 percent compared to McCain's 14 percent. McCain does better as far as support from fellow Republicans with 85 percent compared to Obama's 72 percent support among Democrats. Obama was backed by just 45 percent of those who had voted for Hillary Clinton in the state's primary. McCain had the backing of 70 percent of those who had voted for his primary rivals. In a finding similar to some national polls, Obama's own level of support is lower than the 64 percent of voters who say, generically, they want to see a Democrat in the White House. And again like national polls, this one showed an enthusiasm gap with Obama backers rating their enthusiasm for him 7.2 on a 10 point scale while McCain scored 5.7 among his supporters. McCain outpolls Obama 73 percent to 21 percent when rated on experience, and by large margins when it comes to handling the Iraq war and terrorism. There are no areas, including domestic, where Obama has more than modest leads over McCain. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted Aug. 17-24 had Obama statistically tied with McCain at 44 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 11 percent undecided in a. The margin of error was 2.8 percent. Generically, Ohio voters wanted a Democrat in the White House by 44 percent to 35 percent. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio was 50 percent to 34 percent compared to Obama's 49 percent to 32 percent. The gender gap was big here with Obama ahead among women by 14 points and McCain leading among men by 13. McCain led among white voters by 9 percent while Obama had a huge 89 percent to 3 percent among black voters. Obama had modest or statistically insignificant leads over McCain on handling the economy and energy crisis, while McCain posts double-digit leads on handling issues like terrorism, Russia and a Mideast crisis. A Columbus Dispatch poll conducted Aug. 12-21 had McCain leading 42 percent to 41 percent with 1 percent each for Libertarian Bob Barr and Ralph Nader, and 15 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.2 percent. McCain was doing better among fellow Republicans than Obama was among Democrats. Eight-six percent of Republicans backed McCain while 74 percent of Democrats were supporting Obama. McCain was also drawing support from Democrats who backed Hillary Clinton in the state's March primary. Republicans have won Ohio in three of the last five elections, but the margin of victory in 2000 and 2004 was 2.5 percent or less. CQ Politics' Election Forecast for Ohio is "No Clear Favorite."

Echoing other recent polls, a USA Today/Gallup survey conducted Aug. 21-23 shows that John McCain far and away is seen as more able to handle the responsibilities of commander-in-chief than Barack Obama. However, Obama has the advantage over McCain on a host of qualities and characteristics other than foreign policy and national security.

Eighty-percent of Americans believe McCain is more prepared to be commander-in-chief compared to 53 percent for Obama. Only 18 percent don't believe that of McCain, while 44 percent say Obama cannot handle those duties.

Obama leads McCain by 7 points or more in four different areas: caring about peoples' needs, ability to work with both parties to get things done, independence, and sharing peoples' values.

Our latest round-up of state match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Florida and Rhode Island (guess who's ahead there?) Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.

• Colorado: McCain leads Obama 47 percent to 46 percent with 7 percent choosing neither, preferring "other" or having no opinion in a Time/CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Aug. 24-26. The margin of error is 4 percent. A Suffolk University poll conducted Aug. 21-24 had Obama ahead 44 percent to 39 percent with Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr drawing 2 percent each and 12 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.6 percent. Suffolk's David Paleologos said, "Should Obama go on to win Colorado, it would almost force McCain to run the table with the remaining battleground states or lose the election." Other recent polls were tighter. McCain was in a statistical tie with Obama, leading him 47 percent to 46 percent with 5 percent undecided in a Quinnipiac University survey conducted Aug. 13-15 has Obama ahead of McCain 46 percent to 43 percent within the survey's 5 point margin of error. Previously, a Rocky Mountain News/CBS 4 poll conducted Aug. 11-13 had McCain leading Obama 44 percent to 41 percent with 3 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr, 2 percent for Ralph Nader and 8 percent undecided in. That result was within the poll's 4.38 percent margin of error. The survey found a "massive generational split" with Obama leading McCain 56 percent to 34 percent among voters under 35 years of age and McCain leading Obama 51 percent to 34 percent among those 65 and older. The state has gone Republican the last three elections (by less than 5 points in 2004), but the Obama camp thinks they can make it competitive. CQ Politics' Election Forecast puts Colorado in the "No Clear Favorite" column.

Although tonight's Democratic Convention theme is "Securing America's Future," A CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Aug. 23-24 says that Obama had a lot of work to do to close the gap with John McCain and foreign policy and national security issues.

• McCain leads Obama 78 percent to 58 percent on the question of who can handle the responsibilities of commander-in-chief. Forty-one percent of Americans said Obama was not up to that job compared to only 21 percent who said that of McCain.
• Americans see McCain as better prepared to handle terrorism by 60 percent to 36 percent.
• McCain's edge on Iraq is smaller, no doubt because so many Americans believe going into the war was a mistake, but he leads Obama on this issue 53 percent to 44 percent.

As pundits and analysts try to diagnose why Barack Obama is not doing better in the polls, a Gallup analysis of data from its tracking polls conducted Aug. 18-24 says one factor is that some conservative Democrats are slipping through Obama's fingers.

Obama's support among liberal and moderate Democrats has been holding pretty steady in the 91 percent and 78 percent range respectively, but his support among those describing themselves as conservative, which reached 72 percent at one point in July, is now 63 percent. The only consolation is that this is a relatively small group in the party.

In the rush of horse-race polls, we didn't have a chance to catch up with a Pew Research Center report - perhaps made more timely by Hillary Clinton's run for President this year - onwho makes the better leader - a man or a woman?

That title perhaps overshadows the whole answer because what the study says is that Americans believe women have the "right stuff" to be political leaders, they still have not achieved positions of influence and power proportionate to their numbers. As the study notes, women make up 17 percent of members of the House, 16 percent of Senators, 16 percent of governors and 24 percent of state legislators.

The survey, conducted June 16 to July 16, says 61 percent say men and women make equally good politically leaders, with 21 percent saying men are better and 6 percent saying that of women.

Barack Obama leads John McCain 44 percent to 40 percent with 12 percent undecided in a Diageo/Hotline poll conducted during two periods, Aug. 18-20, and Aug. 18-24. The margin of error for parts of the poll not aimed at sounding out reaction to Obama's selection of Joe Biden is 3 percent. Fifty-five percent of Democrats were satisfied with the choice of Biden while 28 percent were not.

The poll identified strengths and weaknesses of Obama and McCain. Seventy percent of voters saw Obama as a great deal or somewhat in touch with the "average American" compared to 61 percent for McCain. Two-thirds also though Obama had done and excellent or good job of presenting himself as a potential president compared to 50 percent for McCain.

But as has helped McCain and plagued Obama in nearly every poll that tested some aspect of the experience factor voters said McCain was more prepared to lead the country as president by 58 percent to 34 percent.

On the economy, seen as the top issue by half of voters, Obama led McCain 48 percent to 40 percent.

Hillary Clinton's stock among fellow Democrats has improved since Barack Obama clinched the Democratic nomination and most Democrats would like to see her run for President again, according to a Gallup poll conducted Aug. 21-23. Eighty percent of Democrats now viewed her favorably, up from 74 percent in early June. Americans overall would like to see her run again for President by 52 percent to 47 percent, and Democrats come out 75 percent to 24 percent on that score. Independents are split.

Our latest round-up of state match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates the swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and also North Carolina. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.

• Florida: The state remains very competitive. McCain leads Obama 47 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 8 percent undecided in a Quinnipiac University poll conducted Aug. 17-24. The margin of error is 3 percent. This result comes even though Floridians say b y 44 percent to 39 percent they'd like to see a Democrat in the White House. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 55 percent to 32 percent compared to 51 percent to 36 percent for Obama. As in most national and state polls, McCain has double-digit leads when it comes to handling terrorism, relations with Russia and a foreign conflict such as one between Israel and Iran. Obama's leads on domestic issues hover within or just above the margin of error. McCain leads by 8 percent among independents who Quinnipiac says could determine the outcome here. an American Research Group poll conducted Aug. 18-20 had McCain statistically tied with Obama at 47 percent to 46 percent with 7 percent. The margin of error is 4 percent. McCain had a 16 point lead among white voters while Obama led 85 percent to 7 percent among blacks, but white voters make up 71 percent of the sample compared to black voters who comprise 13 percent. The two ran just about even among Hispanic voters, who are 16 percent of the sample. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 18 has McCain leading 46 percent to 43 percent with 7 percent preferring other and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. In its July poll, Obama had led McCain by 1 point and Rasmussen noted he achieved that number after spending "a reported $5 million on television advertising while McCain spent nothing." Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 49 percent to 48 percent while McCain's is 51 percent to 37 percent. An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Aug. 11 had McCain ahead 48 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 5 points. Republicans have carried the state in four of the last five elections including, of course, the hotly-contested outcome in 2000 where the state was awarded to George Bush by a hair. CQ Politics' Election Forecast has "No Clear Favorite here.

Today we update North Carolina. Also, check out our "Senate Races to Watch" and our state-by-state election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down.

• North Carolina: Although it is within the 3.3 percent margin of error, Democratic challenger Kay Hagan has taken a 42 percent to 39 percent lead over Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole's with 5 percent favoring Libertarian Chris Cole and 13 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Aug. 20-23. PPP says what the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is doing to Dole right now "is the political equivalent of a punch in the gut from Muhammad Ali," thanks to a TV ad seen by 69 percent of voters about Dole ranking 93 for effectiveness in the Senate. Also, Hagan has closed the gap with two key constituencies for Republicans, white and older voters. However, the pollster notes that while all this is not great news for Dole, she "has plenty of money and a lot of time to recover." An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Aug. 19. The margin of error was 3.8 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Aug. 9-11 had Dole ahead 46 percent to 41 percent with drawing 7 percent and 5 percent undecided in a. That was the first time SurveyUSA included Cole in its poll, and it observed: "Hagan is flat, Dole is down. Cole gets 11% of male votes today, siphoning key votes Dole needs to win. However, Cole was not running anywhere near as strongly in the PPP poll. CQ Politics rates the race as "Republican Favored."

Our latest round-up of state match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates Texas and the crucial states of Michigan, Ohio and Colorado - all crucial states. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.

• Texas: McCain leads Obama 50 percent to 41 percent with 5 percent choosing o"other" and 4 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 21. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain is viewed favorably by 62 percent of voters and unfavorably by 35 percent. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 50 percent to 49 percent. McCain has the loyalty of 82 percent of Republicans and draws 16 percent of Democratic votes. Obama is backed by 75 percent of Republicans and 14 percent of Republicans. McCain leads 51 percent to 35 percent among unaffiliated voters. A a University of Texas-Austin poll conducted July 18-30 had McCain ahead 42 percent to 33 percent among registered voters with Libertarian Bob Barr at just under 5 percent, Ralph Nader at 2 percent and 17 percent undecided.. The margin of error was 3.77 percent. The poll included a "feeling thermometer" for which voters were asked to say whether they felt very warm or cold towards a candidate. McCain rated 53.8 degrees to Obama's 50.3 degrees which rated as "no feeling at all." Two percent of Texans said the country's economy was better off than a year ago and 81 percent said it was worse. A Rasmussen Reports Poll conducted July 30 had McCain ahead 50 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and only 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. That's unchanged in this poll from a month ago. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ration was 60 percent to 37 percent while Obama's was 46 percent to 51 percent. McCain led 45 percent to 42 percent among unaffiliated voters. Republicans have comfortably carried the state in all of the last five elections. The CQ Politics Election Forecast calls Texas "Safe Republican."

Today we update Colorado and Michigan. Also, check out our "Senate Races to Watch" and our state-by-state election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down.

• Colorado: Democrat Mark Udall leads Republican Rep. Bob Schaffer 39 percent to 31 percent with 22 percent undecided in a Suffolk University poll conducted Aug. 21-24. The margin of error is 4.6 percent. A Mason-Dixon Research for the Denver Post conducted Aug. 13-15 had Udall ahead by 10 points. However, the paper did not provide the actual figures for each beyond their favorable-to-unfavorable ratios which were 42 percent to 23 percent for Udall and 27 percent to 25 percent for Schaffer with 39 percent providing no view. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug.13 had Udall ahead 47 percent to 41 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 10 percent undecided in. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Udall had led by 4 points in last month's Rasmussen poll. Udall's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 53 percent to 39 percent while Schaffer's is 48 percent to 38 percent. A Rocky Mountain News/CBS 4 poll released today showed Udall leading 44 percent to 38 percent with Udall holding a 14 point edge among women voters. But thirty-nine percent of voters said they had not yet formed an opinion about Schaffer and 29 percent said the same of Udall. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Aug. 5-7 had Udall ahead 47 percent to 41 percent with 12 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.2 percent. Udall and Schaffer are vying to fill the seat of retiring GOP Sen. Wayne Allard. PPP's results in this key state paint a rosier picture for the Democrats - both in the Senate race and the John McCain-Barack Obama contest - than did a recent Quinnipiac University poll. PPP notes, thought, it is a slip of 3 points for Udall since its last survey. Udall ties Schaffer among white voters, but has a 16 point lead among Hispanics who made up 15 percent of the sample. The Quinnipiac University/Washington Post/ Wall Street Journal poll conducted July 14-22 had the race tied at 44 percent each with 11 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.6 percent. Udall had a 10 point lead in Quinnipiac's previous survey. CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Democrat."

Barack Obama enjoys a 52 percent to 40 percent advantage over John McCain when it comes to voters seeing him as the candidate best able to handle the economy, according to a Gallup poll conducted Aug. 21-23. That's good news for Obama since 43 percent of registered voters name the economy as the top issue with Iraq a distant second at 15 percent and energy third at 14 percent.

McCain leads Obama 58 percent to 34 percent on handling terrorism. But only 9 percent of voters cite terrorism as their most important issue. McCain also has double-digit leads when it comes to handling policy towards Russia and the situation in Iraq.

Obama leads on most other domestic issues: by 22 points on health care and 11 points on energy. He has a slim 47 percent to 44 percent lead on taxes. The margin of error is 4 percent.

Barack Obama apparently has received no boost so far from choosing Joseph Biden as running mate, with a CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Aug. 23-24 after the selection has him deadlocked with John McCain at 47 percent each.

"This looks like a step backward for Obama, who had a 51 to 44 percent advantage last month," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "Even last week, just before his choice of Joe Biden as his running mate became known, most polls tended to show Obama with a single-digit advantage over McCain."

While a New York Times/CBS News poll found that more than half of Hillary Clinton delegates to the Democratic convention said they were now enthusiastic about Obama, CNN's poll of the public at large said that the percentage of Clinton supporters who back Obama has dropped from 75 percent at the end of June to 66 percent. The number who said they will back McCain has gone up 11 points.

Thirty-nine percent of voters regard Michelle Obama as very liberal, and if those who see her as "somewhat liberal" are included, that number rising to 64 percent, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 24 A quarter of voters think she will be very involved in policymaking if Barack Obama is elected and another 31 percent see her as being somewhat involved.

More than half the delegates who supported Hillary Clinton in the primaries say they are now enthusiastic about Obama while 3 in 10 have reservations but will back him because he is the nominee, according to a New York Times/CBS News Poll conducted Aug. 15-20. .

Seventy-nine percent of Democratic delegates are confident he will win.

Sixty-five percent say the economy is most important issue while Iraq registered only at 6 percent.

Asked about Obama's main strengths, 23 percent said it was that he was "inspirational/gives hope " followed by 13 percent who say he will bring change and 10 percent saying he is a good speaker, a fresh face, can provide leadership and united Americans.

Forty-two percent say his inexperience is his main weakness.

More than half of delegates consider him a liberal and about a quarter say he is a moderate.

Seventy-nine percent of delegates have a favorable opinion of Bill Clinton compared to 96 percent who held that view in 2004 while Al Gore's favorability rating went up from 83 percent to 93 percent.

Ninety percent beliece that it would help Democratic candidates in their states some or a lot if Obama campaigns for them.

Our latest round-up of state match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates the crucial states of Colorado and Virginia which are both toss-ups and could turn out to be a key to the election. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.

• Virginia: The polls here consistently agree that McCain and Obama are in a real horse-race in a state that has gone Republican in the last five elections.Obama is leading McCain 47 percent to 45 percent with 8 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Aug. 20-22. That's within the 3 point margin of error. While McCain leads 55 percent to 36 percent among white voters (75 percent of the sample), Obama leads 89 percent to 11percent among blacks (20 percent of the sample). A large number of voters counted in each man's camp say they could change their mind by Election Day. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Aug. 12 has Obama at 46 percent and McCain at 45 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 51 percent to 47 percent while McCain's is 61 percent to 36 percent. Rasmussen says McCain has the advantage among unaffiliated voters. An InsiderAdvantage poll also conducted Aug. 12 has McCain and Obama even at 43 percent each with 9 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 5 percent. InsiderAdvantage says, "The secret to Obama's ability to make Virginia a close race can be found in his ability to attract 40% of the white vote. While Virginia's black vote will likely be less than states such as Georgia or North Carolina, it is substantial enough that, when combined with such a strong showing among whites, it falls into the 'recipe' we see as necessary for Obama to win Southern states that have voted Republican in recent years." A SurveyUSA poll conducted Aug. 8-10 had Obama at 48 percent to 47 percent for McCain with 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. Obama had a 23 point lead among voters under 34 who make up 21 percent of the sample. McCain led among white voters (74 percent of the sample) by 58 percent to 37 percent while Obama led among blacks (19 percent of the sample) by 84 percent to 14 percent. Independents prefer McCain by 11 points. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 17-20 also had Obama in a statistical dead-heat with McCain, leading 46 percent to 44 percent, the same margin as last month. Ten percent are undecided and the margin of error is 2.7 percent. Unlike some other states, there is no gender gap here among either men or women. However, McCain leads 53 percent to 36 percent among white voters (73 percent of the sample) and Obama by 77 percent to 16 percent among blacks (20 percent of the sample). A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 16, has Obama and McCain tied at 46 percent each with 5 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is better at 64 percent to 36 percent, while Obama's is 52 percent to 47 percent. Virginians rank national security pretty high as an issue with 30 percent choosing that as the issue with which they are more concerned, while 42 percent named the economy. Voters put more importance on lowering gasoline prices than protecting the environment by 48 percent to 40 percent. Check Out the Washington Post story about Virginia's emergence as a key battleground state. Republicans won the last five elections here even in 1992 when independent candidate Ross Perot siphoned off votes from the first George Bush. The CQ Politics' Election Forecast says this state "Leans Republican."

Today we update Colorado and Mississippi. Also, check out our "Senate Races to Watch" and our state-by-state election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down.

• Colorado: Democrat Mark Udall has opened up a 10 point lead over former Republican Rep. Bob Schaffer in a poll conducted Aug. 13-15 by Mason-Dixon Research for the Denver Post. However, the paper did not provide the actual figures for each beyond their favorable-to-unfavorable ratios which were 42 percent to 23 percent for Udall and 27 percent to 25 percent for Schaffer with 39 percent providing no view. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug.13 had Udall ahead 47 percent to 41 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 10 percent undecided in. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Udall had led by 4 points in last month's Rasmussen poll. Udall's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 53 percent to 39 percent while Schaffer's is 48 percent to 38 percent. A Rocky Mountain News/CBS 4 poll released today showed Udall leading 44 percent to 38 percent with Udall holding a 14 point edge among women voters. But thirty-nine percent of voters said they had not yet formed an opinion about Schaffer and 29 percent said the same of Udall. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Aug. 5-7 had Udall ahead 47 percent to 41 percent with 12 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.2 percent. Udall and Schaffer are vying to fill the seat of retiring GOP Sen. Wayne Allard. PPP's results in this key state paint a rosier picture for the Democrats - both in the Senate race and the John McCain-Barack Obama contest - than did a recent Quinnipiac University poll. PPP notes, thought, it is a slip of 3 points for Udall since its last survey. Udall ties Schaffer among white voters, but has a 16 point lead among Hispanics who made up 15 percent of the sample. The Quinnipiac University/Washington Post/ Wall Street Journal poll conducted July 14-22 had the race tied at 44 percent each with 11 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.6 percent. Udall had a 10 point lead in Quinnipiac's previous survey. CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Democrat."

Barack Obama leads John McCain 49 percent to 43 percent among registered voters with 3 percent liking neither and 3 percent expressing no opinion in a Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted Aug. 19-22. That's two points down for Obama since this poll was last done in July. Among likely voters, Obama's margin is 4 points, up 1 point from July. Elevn percent of voters say there is a good chance they could change their minds, and that number is larger among McCain backers (14 percent) than Obama supporters (7 percent).

When Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr were factored in the poll among registered voters, Obama led 47 percent to 40 percent with Barr and Nader each drawing 4 percent.

Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 62 percent to 34 percent compared to McCain's 59 percent to 37 percent. That's little changed from June.

As well Joe Biden is known in Washington and the political world, 23 percent of Americans say they never have heard of him and 28 percent don't have an opinion about him, according to an overnight USA Today/Gallup poll. In any event, 7 of 10 Americans say Barack Obama's choice of him won't affect their voting decisions.

Voters believe Biden is qualified to serve as President if that became necessary by a 57 percent to 18 percent margin.

About 3 in 10 of Democrats call the choice "excellent," 36 percent say "pretty good," 16 percent say "only fair' and 6 percent say "poor." Forty-five percent of independents call the choice excellent or and 35 percent rate it fair or poor.

USA Today says Biden's ratings were lower than what John Edwards got in 2004 when John Kerry chose him. We doubt it's much cheer to Biden that they were higher than former Sen. Dan Quayle got when the first President Bush chose him in 1988.

Our latest round-up of state match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates Tennessee and California, states that are no contests. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.

• Tennessee: McCain leads Obama 56 percent to 32 percent with 6 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 20. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Republicans won three of the last five elections here with the two losses to Bill Clinton and Al Gore in 1992 and 1996. CQ Politics' Election Forecast has Tennessee as "Republican Favored."

Some pollster notes on Joe Biden from Rasmussen Reports:

• Biden's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio among voters is 43 percent to 38 percent.
• Among just Democrats, Biden is viewed favorably by 65 percent and by 42 percent of voters unaffiliated with either party.
• Forty-one percent see him as liberal, 22 percent think he's a moderate and 15 percent say he is conservative. Among Democrats alone, 31 percent view him as liberal.
• Biden is better known than all the other prospective running mates mentioned in the last few weeks except for Hillary Clinton.

Although the political party preferences of voters favor the Democrats, Barack Obama is not fully reaping the benefit of that because John McCain is getting more support from members of his party than Obama is from Democrats, according to a Gallup analysis of its daily tracking poll data. While McCain has the loyalty of 84 percent of Republicans, Obama's support among Democrats stands at 79 percent. In addition, while independents lean more towards the Democrats than Republicans, Obama and McCain currently run neck-and-neck among the 36 percent who describe themselves as independents. This is a trend that can also be seen in some individual state polls posted in our round-ups. Part of Obama's problem no doubt lies with the reluctance of some Hillary Clinton supporters to embrace him. A New York Times/CBS News poll found that about a quarter of former Clinton backers said they were undecided. The continuing antipathy between some in the Obama and Clinton camps was also highlighted by a Times/CBS poll of Democratic convention delegates.

Today we update Minnesota, where there is big news as well as Kansas and New Mexico in our round-up of Senate polls. Also, check out our "Senate Races to Watch" and our state-by-state election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down.

• Minnesota: Democrat Al Franken , whose candidacy has struggled, now has moved into a statistical tie with Republican first-termer Norm Coleman. Franken leads 41 percent to 40 percent among likely voters with 8 percent for Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley and 11 percent undecided in a Minnesota Public Radio poll conducted conducted Aug. 7-17. The margin of error is 3.6 percent. The poll says that voter dissatisfaction and anger with President Bush and the Republicans have offset Franken's problems which included questions about his taxes and a satirical piece he had done for Playboy that the Coleman camp hoped would offend Minnesotans. Barkley's entrance in the race is hurting Franken more than Coleman because he is competed with Franken for disaffected voters. A KTSP/SurveyUSA poll reported by the station Aug. 18 had Coleman leading Franken 46 percent to 39 percent with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.8 percent. In its last poll, Franken had trailed by 13. Coleman enjoyed an advantage in party support drawing 87 percent among fellow Republicans compared to Franken's 74 percent among Democrats. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Aug. 13 had Coleman and Franken tied at 45 percent each with 5 percent preferring "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. That compared to a Quinnipiac University/Washington Post/ Wall Street Journal poll conducted July 14-22 showing Coleman with a 53 percent to 38 percent lead and 8 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.8 percent. Rasmussen does say that "things are beginning to lean in favor of" Coleman because if voters leaning towards one man or another are counted, he is ahead 49 percent to 46 percent. Quinnipiac's Peter Brown said in his poll that "Franken still faces an uphill battle in his quest to unseat Sen. Norm Coleman, with almost 20 percent of the voters in his own party voting for the Republican incumbent" CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Republican."

Our latest round-up of state match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates Indiana, Michigan and New Mexico. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.

• Indiana: Despite this state's history of voting Republican, McCain only leads Obama by 46 percent to 42 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 8 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 19-21. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 65 percent to 32 percent while Obama's is 52 percent to 44 percent. Obama may be getting some advantage from representing the state next door, Illinois. McCain leads by 12 point among men and runs evenly with Obama among women. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Aug. 16-18 had McCain ahead 50 percent to 44 percent with 3 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. McCain led by 12 points among men and tied Obama among women. Except for voters under 34 among whom Obama ledby 22 points, McCain had healthy leads in all other age groups. McCain had a 12 point lead among white voters. Both men ran fairly evenly among the 45 percent of voters that cite the economy as the top issue, but Obama led him by wide margins among the 12 percent of voters who named health care and the 9 percent who said the top issue is Iraq. Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections, and the only year where their margin of victory was less than 15 points was 1996 when independent Ross Perot got 10 percent of the vote. CQ Politics' Election Forecast Rates this state "Republican Favored."

A Pew Research Center survey conducted July 31-Aug. 10 about religion and politics says that while John McCain enjoys far stronger backing among white evangelicals than Barack Obama , his support among them is much softer than it was for George Bush in his two election runs. White evangelicals favor McCain over Obama 68 percent to 24 percent, with 28 percent favoring him strongly and 40 percent not strongly. In August 2004, 57 percent of theis group favored Bush strongly, although in his first run in 2000, that number was only 34 percent.

Barack Obama and John McCain are statistically tied in yet another national poll. Obama leads McCain 42 percent to 39 percent with a sizable 19 percent undecided in a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll conducted Aug. 19-20. The margin of error is 3 points. Obama led by 4 points in June and the undecideds then were at 14 percent. Fourteen percent of Obama supporters and 12 percent of McCain supporters said they might change their minds by election day. Independents split evenly and 39 percent of them are undecided.

Asked what they liked most about Obama, the top two things were "new ideas/freshface" and "will bring change," (15 percent and 10 percent respectively). But when it came to what voters didn't like about Obama, 31 percent said "too young, too inexperienced, not qualified." McCain's far-and-away top quality to voters, at 26 percent, was his experience. The biggest knock against him -24 percent - was that he's too old.

A National Public Radio poll conducted in 19 battleground states has Barack Obama neck-and-neck with John McCain, leading him 46 percent to 45 percent with Ralph Nader drawing 2 percent and Libertarian Bob Barr 1 percent. Those numbers include "leaners." The poll was conducted Aug. 12-14.

Fifty-one percent of voters said McCain has been too negative in his campaign compared to 27 percent for Obama.

The poll also tested voters on how they viewed the candidates across a range of issues and characteristics. On the economy, considered the top issue by most voters, Obama had a 47 percent to 42 percent lead. Here are the areas where they registered their biggest differences:

• Fifty percent of voters think Obama says what people want to hear rather than what he believes compared to 34 percent for McCain. This comports with most other polls.
• When it comes to "bringing the right kind of change," Obama leads McCain 52 percent to 37 percent.
• Voters believe Obama is "too risky" compared to McCain by 51 percent to 38 percent.
• McCain is seen as the stronger leader by 50 percent to 40 percent and voters say he "has what it takes to be president" by a 51 percent to 40 percent margin over Obama
• McCain leads Obama 52 percent to 42 percent on his approach to Iraq and 54 percent to 37 percent on Afghanistan. There is an odd disconnect here between the national findings on the Iraq issue and the results in the state-by-state general election match-ups where voters who care most about Iraq as a campaign issue tend to favor Obama.

Our latest round-up of state match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates Florida, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Arizona and Louisiana. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.

• Florida: One tight poll after another. McCain leads Obama 47 percent to 46 percent with 7 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Aug. 18-20. The margin of error is 4 percent. McCain has a 16 point lead among white voters while Obama leads 85 percent to 7 percent among blacks, but white voters make up 71 percent of the sample compared to black voters who comprise 13 percent. The two run just about even among Hispanic voters, who are 16 percent of the sample. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 18 has McCain leading 46 percent to 43 percent with 7 percent preferring other and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. In its July poll, Obama had led McCain by 1 point and Rasmussen noted he achieved that number after spending "a reported $5 million on television advertising while McCain spent nothing." Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 49 percent to 48 percent while McCain's is 51 percent to 37 percent. An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Aug. 11 had McCain ahead 48 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 5 points. Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 30-Aug.2 had McCain ahead 47 percent to 44 percent with 8 percent undecided. But that also was within the 3.5 percent margin of error. McCain enjoyed higher support in this poll among fellow Republicans at 84 percent than Obama does among Democrats at 76 percent. McCain led 55 percent to 36 percent among whites (67 percent of the sample), and the two were in a statistical tie among Hispanics (16 percent of the sample) with Obama ahead 48 percent to 45 percent. Obama led among blacks (14 percent of the sample) 80 percent to 15 percent. Obama had a 16 point advantage among voters under 29 (15 percent of the sample) while McCain ledby 23 points among voters over 65 (19 percent of the sample). McCain leads by 11 points among women. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Aug. 1-3 had McCain ahead 50 percent to 44 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.8 percent. McCain had a 7 point lead among women. Obama leads by almost 2-to-1 among voters under 34 who made up 17 percent of the sample, but McCain leads by at least 12 points in all other age groups. McCain leads 57 percent to 38 percent among white voters (73 percent of the sample) while Obama leads 84 percent to 16 percent among blacks (11 percent) and 48 percent to 42 percent among Hispanics (13 percent). Fifty-eight percent of voters cited the economy as the top issue in the campaign and they split evenly between McCain and Obama. Iraq was named by only 8 percent and Obama led McCain there by 23 points. Republicans have carried the state in four of the last five elections including, of course, the hotly-contested outcome in 2000 where the state was awarded to George Bush by a hair. CQ Politics' Election Forecast has "No Clear Favorite here.

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