Poll Tracker

Hispanics have yet to make themselves a nationwide force. A study by the Pew Hispanic Center late last year said that while Hispanics are the fastest growing minority group in the U.S., making up about 15 percent of the population, only about 9 percent of Latinos are eligible to vote and only about 6.5 percent are actually like to do so in November.

However, Pew notes that they are still an important swing vote because of where they are located on the electoral map. Pew says that Hispanics "constitute a sizable share of the electorate in four of the six states that President Bush carried by margins of five percentage points or fewer in 2004." These states were New Mexico (where Hispanics make up 37 percent of state's eligible electorate); Florida (14 percent); Nevada (12 percent) and Colorado (12 percent).

Here is how those four states are looking in current polls (and check out NPR's story, "Latino's Crucial to McCain's Western Strategy" and its graphic, and the Boston Globe's piece about how McCain ads are targeting Latinos in western states.):

• New Mexico: There are two recent polls for this state, one showing Obama and McCain in a statistical tie and the other giving Obama a bit more breathing room. Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 46 percent with 5 percent undecided, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted June 17-19. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. There's a big gender gap here with McCain leading 60 percent to 36 percent among men and Obama ahead 62 percent to 32 percent among women. Hispanics, who made up 29 percent of the sample, favor Obama 63 percent to 34 percent. Independents favor Obama by 55 percent to 39 percent. A Rasmussen reports poll conducted June 19 has Obama leading McCain 47 percent to 39 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 9 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama is viewed favorably by 57 percent of voters and McCain by 54 percent. Thirty percent say McCain is too old to be President and voters reject the idea that Obama is too inexperienced by a narrow 49 percent to 46 percent. Fifty-three percent say getting the troops home from Iraq is the most important goal for the next President while 39 percent say it is winning the war.

• Florida:Three polls with somewhat different results, but both indicating a close contest. Public Policy Polling says that with the help of Democrats starting to unite behind him and support from Hispanics, Obama is in a dead heat with McCain in this key state, according to its survey June 26-29. Obama leads 46 percent to 44 percent and 10 percent undecided, with a 3.6 percent margin of error. When PPP last did a poll here in March, Obama was behind 50 percent to 39 percent. Gender isn't much of a factor here but race is. McCain leads among white voters 53 percent to 36 percent, while Obama leads among Hispanics 51 percent to 37 percent and blacks 86 percent to 11 percent. Whites make up 67 percent of the sample, Hispanics 16 percent and blacks 14 percent. Rasmussen Reports, in a survey conducted June 26, has McCain ahead 48 percent to 41 percent with 6 percent preferring "other" and 5 percent undecided. McCain is regarded favorably by 57 percent of voters compared to 44 percent for Obama. Quinnipiac University had Obama ahead 47 percent to 43 percent in a June 9-16 survey with the margin of error at 2.6 percent.

• Nevada: McCain is statistically tied with Obama here, leading 45 percent to 42 percent with 6 percent choosing "other" and 7 percent undecided in a June 18 Rasmussen Reports survey. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable-unfavorable ratio is 50 percent to 47 percent and McCain's is 57 percent to 41 percent. A quarter of voters think McCain is too old to be President and they are about evenly split on whether Obama is too inexperienced. Forty-three percent said that winning the war in Iraq should be the goal of the President while 51 percent said it should be getting the troops home. A Las Vegas Review-Journal poll conducted June 9-11 had McCain ahead 44 percent to 42 percent with 14 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. The Review-Journal said Nevada had voted for the winner of every presidential election since 1912, with the exception of 1976.

• Colorado: This state is clearly competitive in two recent polls. A Quinnipiac University/Washington Post/Wall Street Journal poll conducted June 17-24 has Obama leading McCain 49 percent to 44 percent with a margin of error of 2.7 percent. Obama has a 12 point lead among independents. A Rasmussen Reports poll, conducted June 17, has Obama leading McCain 43 percent to 41 percent with 8 percent choosing "other" and 7 percent undecided according to. McCain's favorable-unfavorable ratio is 54 percent to 44 percent and Obama's is 50 percent to 49 percent. The state has gone Republican the last three elections, but the Obama camp thinks they can make it competitive. Twenty-six percent say McCain is too old to be President while 50 percent say Obama is too inexperienced. Fifty-three percent believe the next President should have as his goal bringing the troops home from Iraq in the next four years while 40 percent favor winning the war. For some reason, the Rasmussen people asked voters how likely they thought it was that the earth had been visited by extraterrestrials and 36 percent said somewhat or very likely while 55 percent said not likely. Of course, an extraterrestrial born on another planet would not be eligible to be either McCain's or Obama's running mate.