Poll Tracker

New Jersey: Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 44 percentwith 5 percent choosing "other" and 11 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 7. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Early last month, Obama had a 10 point lead and undecideds were only 6 percent in this poll. The lead is an even narrower 3 points if voters that are "leaning" one way or another are factored in. Rasmussen says one dramatic shift was among men voters where McCain gained 8 points and Obama lost 8 and now leads 54 percent to 34 percent. Unaffiliated voters prefer McCain 47 percent to 33 percent. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 59 percent to 38 percent while Obama's is 55 percent to 43 percent. Twenty-four percent say McCain is too old to be President while 46 percent say Obama is too inexperienced. Fifty-eight percent want the next President to concentrate on bring U.S. troops home from Iraq, while 34 percent say he should push to win the war. This poll is not even in the ballpark with one conducted June 17-23 by Fairleigh Dickinson University poll. That had Obama ahead 49 percent to 33 percent. Democrats have won the last four presidential elections here, and Republicans the six before that.

Rhode Island: Obama leads McCain 55 percent to 31 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 9 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 1. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama is viewed favorably by 68 percent of voters compared to 52 percent for McCain. About two-thirds of voters say that bringing U.S. troops home from Iraq should be the top first-term priority for the next president while 27 percent say it should be winning the war.

Louisiana: McCain is leading Obama 52.2 percent to 35.5 percent with 12.3 percent undecided in a Southern Media & Opinion Research poll conducted June 26-28. The margin of error is 4 points. McCain is viewed favorably by 57.4 percent of voters and unfavorably by 38.3 percent. Obama is viewed unfavorably by 52.5 percent and favorably by 43 percent.

Georgia: McCain and Obama are in a statistical ties with McCain leading 46 percent to 44 percent in an InsiderAdvantage poll conducted July 2. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. Libertarian and former Georgia Rep. Bob Barr gets 4 percent and undecided 6 percent. Insider Advantage says: "Georgia, which has one of the highest African-American voting age populations in the nation along with an unusually young voter age population, remains the hidden battleground of the 2008 campaign. The Obama campaign is saturating television in the state, clearly believing that the 15 electoral votes in Georgia are up for grabs." The poll also said that if Obama chose former Georgia Sen. Sam Nunn as running mate, that 51 percent of voters would be more likely to back him.

Montana: Obama is leading McCain 48 percent to 43 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 1. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. In April, McCain had led Obama here by 5 points. Both candidates are viewed favorably by voters: Obama by 57 percent and McCain by 58 percent. A quarter of voters think McCain is too old to be President. Forty eight percent believe Obama has enough experience to sit in the Oval Office and 42 percent do not. Asked whether the top priority for the next President should be to win the war in Iraq or bring the troops home by the end of his first term, Montanans came down 50 percent to 44 percent in favor of bringing the troops home. George Bush won Montana by more than 20 points in each of the last two elections and the last time the Democrats carried the state was in 1992 when Bill Clinton beat the first George Bush with the help of Ross Perot. The Obama camp clearly thinks he has a shot here, so it is no surprise that he decided to spend his July 4 with an event in Butte.

New York: Obama is leading McCain by huge margins in three polls. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted June 30 has him ahead of McCain 60 percent to 29 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. Obama is viewed favorably by 67 percent of voters compared to 48 percent for McCain. Thirty-nine percent believe McCain is too old to be President while 52 percent reject the idea that Obama is too inexperienced. Asked whether the next President's goal should be getting U.S. troops out of Iraq or winning the war, getting the troops out was favored by a 62 percent to 27 percent margin. On the subject of home state Sen. Hillary Clinton, 29 percent say she should be Obama's running mate, 37 percent say she should stay in the Senate and 23 percent say she ... should just "go away. A SurveyUSA poll conducted June 25-27 had Obama leading McCain 57 percent to 37 percent with 6 percent undecided in. Obama has a 66 percent to 26 percent lead among women and beats McCain handily in every age group. A Siena College poll conducted June 9-11 had Obama over McCain 51 percent to 33 percent.

Connecticut: In sports, they'd call this contest a laugher based on two recent polls. Obama leads McCain by 56 percent to 35 percent in a Quinnipiac University survey conducted June 26-29. (Do you really need to know the margin of error?) Obama has a 16 point lead among independents, 13 percent among men, 18 percent among women, 13 percent among whites, and big leads in all age groups. Fifty-three percent of voters say Obama should not pick Hillary Clinton as a running mate although Democrats are somewhat more receptive, favoring the idea by 51 percent to 42 percent. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted June 30 has Obama ahead 52 percent to 35 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 8 percent undecided. Obama is regarded favorably by 62 percent of voters while McCain is viewed that way by 54 percent. Thirty-two percent believe McCain is too old to be President and voters say by a 53 percent to 41 percent margin that Obama has enough experience. Sixty-one percent want the next President's goal to be bringing U.S. troops home from Iraq in the next four years while 33 percent say he should win the war.

Florida:Three polls with somewhat different results, but both indicating a close contest. Public Policy Polling says that with the help of Democrats starting to unite behind him and support from Hispanics, Obama is in a dead heat with McCain in this key state, according to its survey June 26-29. Obama leads 46 percent to 44 percent and 10 percent undecided, with a 3.6 percent margin of error. When PPP last did a poll here in March, Obama was behind 50 percent to 39 percent. Gender isn't much of a factor here but race is. McCain leads among white voters 53 percent to 36 percent, while Obama leads among Hispanics 51 percent to 37 percent and blacks 86 percent to 11 percent. Whites make up 67 percent of the sample, Hispanics 16 percent and blacks 14 percent. Rasmussen Reports, in a survey conducted June 26, has McCain ahead 48 percent to 41 percent with 6 percent preferring "other" and 5 percent undecided. McCain is regarded favorably by 57 percent of voters compared to 44 percent for Obama. Quinnipiac University had Obama ahead 47 percent to 43 percent in a June 9-16 survey with the margin of error at 2.6 percent.

North Carolina: McCain leads Obama 45 percent to 41 percent with Libertarian Bob Barr drawing 5 percent and 9 percent undecided, in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted June 26-29. The margin of error is 3 percent. This was not much of a change from PPP's previous poll here. McCain has a 53 percent to 32 percent lead among white voters (75 percent of the sample) while Obama leads 76 percent to 15 percent among blacks (21 percent of the sample). The hurdle for Obama is firming up support among Democrats. Right now, he has 67 percent support in his party compared to 83 percent that McCain enjoys among Republicans. McCain also appeals to 20 percent of Democrats. A Civitas Institute poll conducted June 11-13 had McCain ahead 45 percent to 41 percent with a 4 point margin of error.

Massachusetts: Obama outdistances McCain 53 percent to 33 percent with 4 percent chosing "other" and 10 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted June 30. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted June 25-27 had Obama leading McCain 53 percent to 40 percent with 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. Obama has roughly a 2-to-1 lead among women.

Mississippi: McCain leads Obama 50 percent to 44 percent with 3 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent undecided, in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted June 25. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 58 percent to 37 percent while Obama is viewed unfavorably by 51 percent and favorably by 48 percent. Twenty-eight percent believe McCain is too old to be President and 51 percent say Obama is too inexperienced. Asked whether it was more important for the next President to win the war in Iraq or bring the troops home by the end of his first term, 50 percent chose bringing the troops home compared to 46 percent who favor winning the war.

Nebraska: McCain leads Obama 52 percent to 36 percent with 6 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted June 23. McCain is viewed favorably by 68 percent of voters compared to 48 percent for Obama, (51 percent view Obama unfavorably). Twenty percent of voters say McCain is too old to be President while 52 percent say Obama is too inexperienced. Half the voters want to see the next President win the war in Iraq by the end of his first term while 42 percent say bringing the troops home is the more important goal.

Michigan: Obama leads McCain 48 percent to 39 percent with 13 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted June 21-22. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. PPP says this is one of the swing states where Obama is doing better because Democrats are now coalescing around him after the bitter nomination battle. Obama is holding on to 78 percent of Democrats while McCain has the support of 74 percent of Republicans. A Quinnipiac University/Washington Post/Wall Street Journal poll conducted June 17-24 has Obama ahead 48 percent to 42 percent with a 2.6 percent margin of error. Obama has an 8 point lead among independents and 14 points among women. Quinnipiac's Peter Brown said, "Michigan is a blue-collar state with a large white, working-class vote, the kind of voters with whom Sen. Obama had problems during the primaries. But at this point Sen. McCain isn't doing nearly as well among that group as he needs to in order to carry Michigan."

Virginia: Obama and McCain are in a statistical tie in this closely-watched state, with Obama leading 49 percent to 47 percent and 4 percent undecided, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted June 20-22. The margin of error is 4 percent. McCain leads by 18 points among men and Obama leads by 22 points among women. Among age groups, Obama's biggest margin is with voters 35-to-49 where he leads by 12 points while McCain has an 18 point lead with voters over 65. McCain leads 54 percent to 41 percent among white voters, and appears to do better here among minority voters than in other states, trailing Obama 74 percent to 25 percent among blacks and 63 percent to 37 percent among Hispanics. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted June 14-16 had Obama ahead of McCain 47 percent to 45 percent with 8 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 percent. A June 12 Rasmussen Reports survey had it Obama 45 percent, McCain 44 percent, 5 percent for "other" and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent.

Ohio: Obama and McCain are in a horse race with Obama out in front by a nose, 48 percent to 46 percent, with 7 percent undecided, according to a SurveyUSA poll, conducted June 20-22. The margin of error is 4.2 percent. Obama leads by more than 2-to-1 among voters under 34. A survey conducted June 17 by Rasmussen Reports had McCain ahead of Obama 44 percent to 43 percent with 7 percent choosing "other" and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. McCain is regarded favorably by 58 percent of voters and Obama by 53 percent. Thirty-one percent believe McCain is too old to be President and 48 percent believe Obama is too inexperienced (a notion rejected by 44 percent). Fifty-three percent believe the next President's goal in Iraq should be foremost getting the troops home by the end of his first term, while 39 percent said it should be winning the war. Quinnipiac University had Obama ahead 48 percent to 42 percent in a June 9-16 poll. The margin of error was 2.6 percent.

Colorado: This state is clearly competitive in two recent polls. A Quinnipiac University/Washington Post/Wall Street Journal poll conducted June 17-24 has Obama leading McCain 49 percent to 44 percent with a margin of error of 2.7 percent. Obama has a 12 point lead among independents. A Rasmussen Reports poll, conducted June 17, has Obama leading McCain 43 percent to 41 percent with 8 percent choosing "other" and 7 percent undecided according to. McCain's favorable-unfavorable ratio is 54 percent to 44 percent and Obama's is 50 percent to 49 percent. The state has gone Republican the last three elections, but the Obama camp thinks they can make it competitive. Twenty-six percent say McCain is too old to be President while 50 percent say Obama is too inexperienced. Fifty-three percent believe the next President should have as his goal bringing the troops home from Iraq in the next four years while 40 percent favor winning the war. For some reason, the Rasmussen people asked voters how likely they thought it was that the earth had been visited by extraterrestrials and 36 percent said somewhat or very likely while 55 percent said not likely. Of course, an extraterrestrial born on another planet would not be eligible to be either McCain's or Obama's running mate.

Minnesota: Two recent polls had very different results for this state. A Quinnipiac University/Washington Post/Wall Street Journal survey conducted June 17-24 had Obama way ahead of McCain 54 percent to 37 percent with a 21 point lead among independents. The margin of error was 2.5 percent. A SurveyUSA poll, conducted June 13-16, had Obama and McCain are in a dead heat with Obama leading 47 percent to 46 percent and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. McCain leads by 20 points among men and Obama leads by 22 points among women. Independents back McCain 51 percent to 40 percent.

Wisconsin: Two polls have Obama ahead here. A Quinnipiac University/Washington Post/Wall Street Journal survey conducted June 17-24 put Obama in the lead by 52 percent to 39 percent, helped by a 13 point edge among independents. The margin of error was 2.5 percent. A SurveyUSA poll, conducted June 13-16, had Obama leading McCain 52 percent to 43 percent with 6 percent undecided, according to. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. Obama has a 23 point lead among women and a 20 point lead among voters under 34.

Pennsylvania: Obama leads McCain 46 percent to 42 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 8 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted June 19. The margin of error is 3 percent. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 58 percent to 40 percent while McCain's is 57 percent to 39 percent. Fifty-three percent of voters say the prospect of a long military presence in Iraq under McCain make it less likely they would vote for him compared to 27 percent who said they would be more likely to vote for him. As far as Obama's negatives, 55 percent say they are somewhat or very concerned by Obama's past associations with controversial pastors of his ex-church and one-time radical William Ayers. Forty-two percent are not very concerned or not concerned at all. This key state was won by Democrats in the last two elections, but by 4 points or less each time. Quinnipiac University had Obama ahead 52 percent to 40 percent in a June 9-16 poll, with a margin of error of 2.5 percent.

Utah: McCain leads Obama 52 percent to 33 percent with 8 percent preferring "other" and 8 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted June 19. McCain is viewed favorably by 58 percent of voters and Obama unfavorably by 52 percent. Twenty-two percent believe McCain is too old for the Presidency while 47 percent believe Obama is too inexperienced (41 percent reject that idea). Fifty-one percent think the most important goal in Iraq for the next President is winning the war while 41 percent say it is getting the troops home. A Deseret News/KSL-TV poll conducted June 16-19 has McCain ahead of Obama by 57 percent to 29 percent, and adds that voters would be more likely to vote for McCain if he picks Mitt Romney as running mate, while they'd be less likely to vote for Obama if he picks Hillary Clinton.

New Mexico: There are two recent polls for this state, one showing Obama and McCain in a statistical tie and the other giving Obama a bit more breathing room. Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 46 percent with 5 percent undecided, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted June 17-19. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. There's a big gender gap here with McCain leading 60 percent to 36 percent among men and Obama ahead 62 percent to 32 percent among women. Hispanics, who made up 29 percent of the sample, favor Obama 63 percent to 34 percent. Independents favor Obama by 55 percent to 39 percent. A Rasmussen reports poll conducted June 19 has Obama leading McCain 47 percent to 39 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 9 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama is viewed favorably by 57 percent of voters and McCain by 54 percent. Thirty percent say McCain is too old to be President and voters reject the idea that Obama is too inexperienced by a narrow 49 percent to 46 percent. Fifty-three percent say getting the troops home from Iraq is the most important goal for the next President while 39 percent say it is winning the war.

Indiana: One of the close states. Obama leads McCain 48 percent to 47 percent with 3 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted June 21-23. The margin of error is 4 points. The candidates run closely in most gender and age groups except among voters under 34 where Obama leads by 22 points.

Oregon: Obama and McCain are in a statistical tie with Obama leading 48 percent to 45 percent with 7 percent undecided, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted June 17-19. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. McCain leads by 29 points among men and Obama is ahead among women by 29 points.

Washington State: Obama leads McCain 55 percent to 40 percent with 5 percent undecided, in a SurveyUSA poll conducted June 17-19. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. Obama has a 2-to-1 lead among women. This is a rare state where he matches up just about evenly with McCain among voters over 65.

California: Obama has big leads over McCain in two polls. A June 23 Rasmussen Reports survey shows him leading 58 percent to 30 percent with 5 percent preferring "other" and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama is viewed favorably by 63 percent of Californians compared to 43 percent for McCain. Thirty-four percent say McCain is too old to be President and 53 percent reject the idea that Obama is too inexperienced. In a SurveyUSA poll, conducted June 17-19. Obama is ahead of McCain 53 percent to 41 percent with 6 percent undecided . The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama holds a 62 percent to 29 percent lead among women and a 61 percent to 35 percent advantage among voters uder 34. Whites (61 percent of the sample) support McCain 50 percent to 43 percent; Hispanics (18 percent) favor Obama 65 percent to 26 percent; blacks (7 percent) back Obama 80 percent to 20 percent; and Asians (14 percent) side with Obama by 68 percent to 27 percent. Independents support Obama 57 percent to 33 percent.

Nevada: McCain is statistically tied with Obama here, leading 45 percent to 42 percent with 6 percent choosing "other" and 7 percent undecided in a June 18 Rasmussen Reports survey. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable-unfavorable ratio is 50 percent to 47 percent and McCain's is 57 percent to 41 percent. A quarter of voters think McCain is too old to be President and they are about evenly split on whether Obama is too inexperienced. Forty-three percent said that winning the war in Iraq should be the goal of the President while 51 percent said it should be getting the troops home. A Las Vegas Review-Journal poll conducted June 9-11 had McCain ahead 44 percent to 42 percent with 14 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. The Review-Journal said Nevada had voted for the winner of every presidential election since 1912, with the exception of 1976.

New Hampshire: Obama has widened his lead over McCain here, running ahead of him by 50 percent to 39 percent with 5 percent preferring "other" and 5 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted June 18. Both men are viewed favorably by voters - Obama by 61 percent and McCain by 59 percent. Fifty-six percent put more importance on the next President bringing the troops home from Iraq than winning the war, a goal favored by 38 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted June 13-17 had Obama ahead of McCain 51 percent to 39 percent with 10 percent undecided.

Maine: Obama leads McCain 55 percent to 33 percent with 6 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted June 16. Obama is viewed favorably by 62 percent of voters and McCain by 51 percent. Twenty-nine percent believe McCain is too old to be President while 53 percent reject the idea that Obama is too inexperienced (38 percent believe that he is). Sixty-two percent want the next President to make his goal bringing the troops home from Iraq in the next four years while 31 percent say winning the war should be the goal.

Alaska: McCain leads Obama 45 percent to 41 percent with 7 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted June 16. That's within the 4.5 percent margin of error. Both candidates are viewed favorably by voters - McCain by 58 percent and Obama be 53 percent. Twenty-one percent believe McCain is too old to be President and voters are pretty evenly divided on whether Obama is too inexperienced. Voters split evenly at 46 percent on whether the next President's goal should be winning the war in Iraq by the end of his first term or bringing the troops home.

Iowa: A close race so far. Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 45 percent with 6 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted June 13-16. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. McCain leads by 17 points among men and Obama leads by 15 points among women. Obama's lead among voters under 34 is 23 points.

Kentucky: McCain leads Obama 53 percent to 41 percent with 4 percent preferring "other" and 2 percent undecided, according to a Survey USA poll conducted June 13-16. The margin of error is 4 percent. McCain leads in all gender and age groups except voters under 34.

Texas: McCain leads Obama 43 percent to 38 percent in a Lyceum poll conducted June 12-20. The margin of error is 3.1 percent. However, the pollster says a significant number of voters say they haven't made up their minds. Seventy percent of Texans believe the country is headed down the wrong track and 78 percent said it was economically worse off than a year ago.

Arizona: McCain leads Obama 38 percent to 28 percent with 34 percent undecided, according to a survey conducted by the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and KAET-TV released June 24. The margin of error is 5.2 percent. "There is an unusually high undecided vote but that is probably due to the fact that Democrats are still trying to sort out how they feel about the intense primary battle between Obama and Clinton," said poll director Bruce Merrill. McCain would gain 5 points on Obama if Hillary Clinton was put on the ticket.

Tennessee: McCain leads Obama 51 percent to 36 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 8 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted June 24. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Two months ago, while Obama was still in the midst of the Democratic nomination battle, McCain had led by 27 points. McCain is viewed favorably by 60 percent of voters and unfavorably by 37 percent. Fifty-five percent view Obama unfavorably compared to 42 percent who regard him favorably. Seventy-seven percent said they'd be willing to vote for a black candidate for President but a lesser 57 percent said the same was true for family, friends and co-workers. Forty-eight percent put a premium on the next President getting U.S. troops home from Iraq in the next four years compared to 44 percent who say the goal should be to win the war.

Arkansas: Obama has come back from a 24 point deficit a month ago to now trail McCain by only 48 percent to 39 percent with 8 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted June 12. Obama is viewed unfavorably by 54 percent of voters while McCain is viewed favorably by 57 percent. Twenty-seven percent believe McCain is too old to be President and 56 percent believe Obama is too inexperienced. Fifty-two percent say the next President's goal should be to bring American troops home from Iraq by the end of his first term while 39 percent said the goal should be to win the war.