If the Pew Research Center survey we posted earlier depressed you with the grim view Americans have the economy, take a look at the new CNN/Opinion Research poll which says that only 24 percent have a positive outlook for the country while 76 percent believe things are on the wrong track. The poll was conducted July 27-29.

"Only three events -- Watergate, the Iran hostage crisis, and the economic downturn of 1992 -- have driven below 30 percent the number who think things are going well," CNN's polling director Keating Holland said.

Twenty-two percent approve of the way Congress is doing its job and 77 percent disapprove. The Democratic leaders of Congress get positive marks from only 36 percent, not much higher than President Bush's 30 percent approval rating.

Barack Obama leads John McCain 47 percent to 42 percent with 11 percent saying they are undecided or prefer someone else in a Pew Research Center poll conducted July 23-27. The margin of error is 3 percent. That's little changed from Pew's June poll when he was ahead by 8 percent. But with the survey detailed how pounded Americans are feeling about the economy right now, it's also notable that voters believe by 47 percent to 32 percent that Obama would do a better job improving economic conditions. Eighty-seven percent of voters say that when it comes to the economy, it matters to them who is elected President.

The two men run evenly among independents. McCain maintains a big advantage among white men with a 15 point lead. White evangelicals back McCain 69 percent to 20 percent. The biggest gap among age groups is in Obama's favor. He leads by 20 points with voters under 29. The number of former Clinton supports who say they will back Obama continues to climb slowly but steadily, rising from 69 percent in June to 72 percent. In March, when 32 percent of them said they'd back McCain, Obama only had the support of 63 percent. The number of Clintonites now backing McCain has dropped to 17 percent.

The big news today is the first poll on the Alaska senate race since this week's indictment of longtime Republican Sen. Ted Stevens.

• Alaska: The first poll on the Alaska Senate race since longtime Stevens was indicted for allegedly failing to disclose illegal gifts that he had received shows that Democrat Mark Begich, the mayor of Anchorage, has widened his lead in the race. In a survey conducted July 30, Begich leads 50 percent to 37 percent with 11 percent expressing a preference for "other' and 12 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Stevens is still viewed favorably by 50 percent of voters against 47 percent who view him unfavorably compared to Begich whose ratio 63 percent to 32 percent. However, voters say Stevens should not resign by a 50 percent to 33 percent margin, with 17 percent not sure. Forty-six percent say Stevens is about as ethical as other politicians, 27 percent say he is less ethical and 20 percent more ethical. It also tested the possible fallout for Alaska's Republican Rep. Don Young, also the focus of ethics questions, and 44 percent said the Stevens story made it less likely they'd vote for Young. CQ Politics has changed its rating of this race from "Leans Republican" to "Leans Democrat."

We don't always report the daily tracking polls on the presidential races because on most days the changes are incremental. But we will note today that after opening a 9 point lead in the Gallup tracking poll released July 27, the pollster has the race back to a dead heat with Obama ahead 45 percent to 44 percent, 5 percent liking neither and 7 percent expressing no opinion. The margin of error is 2 percent. Rasmussen Reports has Obama ahead in its daily poll 45 percent to 43 percent.

Thirty percent of conservative Democrats say they'll vote for John McCain over Barack Obama, according to a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted during the two weeks ending July 24. McCain would pick up 19 percent of white Democrats and 15 percent of those over 50. Forty-one percent of those identifying themselves as conservative Democrats have a favorable view of McCain compared to 67 percent who say that of Obama. Another figure that shows an Obama weakness is that among Democratic senior citizens, his support is 74 percent.

In all, Rasmussen said 43 percent of Democrats considered themselves liberal, 37 percent said they were moderate and 18 percent were conservative. Ninety percent of liberal Democrats give Obama good marks but only 23 percent view McCain favorably.

Quinnipiac University has released its latest swing state polls showing Florida and Ohio as too close to call, and Barack Obama still with a lead in Pennsylvania, but a smaller one than he enjoyed in June. One theme running through the three states were voter concerns about energy costs which are clearly eclipsing foreign issues, including Iraq. Quinnipiac said that voters in all three states by margins of 27 to 30 points favored more offshore drilling, a position which John McCain has advocated and Obama opposes.

Barack Obama's trip abroad consumed 51 percent of the campaign story newshole for the week of July 21-27, according to the Project for Excellence in Journalism, but it didn't make much of a dent in the poll numbers in his race with John McCain. A new CNN/Opinion Research survey, conducted entirely after the trip, showed Obama ahead 51 percent to 44 percent, compared to 50 percent to 45 percent a month ago. CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said the trip did not do much to help with Obama's standing with the public on foreign policy issues. "Obama has not picked up any ground against McCain on foreign issues and some 52 percent think McCain would do a better job than Obama on the war in Iraq -- virtually the same number who felt that way in April," he said. McCain also continues to hold the advantage on every foreign policy and national security issue covered by the poll.

The good news for Obama was that McCain's criticism of the trip did not resonate with the public, particularly his claim that Obama cancelled a visit to injured trips because the media could not accompany him. More than two-thirds of voters thought the trip appropriate and 72 percent said they believed Obama cares about veterans and troops in Iraq.

See also yesterday's Gallup survey on public views of Obama's trip.

We're updating our round-up of polls of Senate races with the latest from Mississippi.

• Mississippi: Roger Wicker, appointed to fill out the term of retired Sen. Trent Lott, has opened a modest lead over former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, moving from a dead heat last month to a 48 percent to 42 percent advantage in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 28. Three percent prefer someone "other," 8 percent are undecided and the margin of error is 4.5 percent. If "leaners" are counted, Wicker's lead is a little bigger. Wicker's favorable-to-unfavorable numbers are 61 percent to 29 percent while Musgrove's are 51 percent to 41 percent. Wicker has a 2-to-1 advantage among unaffiliated voters. He gets 72 percent of the white vote while Musgrove polls 83 percent of black voters. Thad Cochran, seeking a sixth term, was way out in front in his race against former state legislator Erik Fleming 59 percent to 32 percent in Rasmussen's June poll. CQ Politics rates Cochran's race "Safe Republican" and the Wicker-Musgrove contest as "No Clear Favorite."

For candidates with their eye on the all-important middle-class vote, the Pew Research Center has this to offer: there isn't one middle-class, there are four.

• The Top of the Class: "Predominantly male, disproportionately well-educated and financially secure," this is the largest subgroup, making up 53 percent.
• The Struggling Middle: Mostly women and minorities and with more in common with the lower economic class. They compromise 17 percent.
• The Satisfied Middle: Disproportionately young or old, they don't have big bucks but are happy with their lives. They represent 25 percent.
• The Anxious Middle: They enjoy some of the economic advantages of their Top of the Class brethren, but their outlook on life is bleak. They add up to 23 percent.

We're updating Michigan in our state match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain. Both men have a lot riding on this state because a loss here would mean needing to make pick-ups elsewhere.

• Michigan: Yet another poll shows the race tightening in this state. Obama leads McCain 46 percent to 43 percent - within the 3.3 percent margin of error - in a survey conducted July 23-27 by Public Policy Polling. Ten percent are undecided. PPP's June poll had Obama up by 9 percent. The pollster attributes Obama's slippage to a decline in support among Republicans from 19 percent to 9 percent and a gain by McCain among whites, going from a small disadvantage to a 10 point lead. Twenty percent of independents are undecided and given that they comprise 27 percent of the sample, and Democrats and Republicans are nearly even at 37 percent and 34 percent respectively, they will obviously be a key to victory here. Obama had also slipped two points compared to last month to a 46 percent to 42 percent edge over McCain with 9 percent undecided in a Quinnipiac University/Washington/Post poll conducted July 14-22. The margin of error is 2.4 percent. (By contrast, a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 10 showed Obama gaining grown, with a 47 percent to 39 percent lead. His lead in June had been a statistically insignificant 3 points). Obama leads 12 points among women and McCain leads 5 points among men. Among white voters, McCain leads by 8 points and Obama leads among black voters by 86 points. Obama still has a 10 point advantage among voters under 34, but the size of his lead has dropped. Michigan has gone Democrat in the last five elections with the only Republican to win being the first George Bush in 1988.

Most of the voters who are still uncommitted in the race between Barack Obama and John McCain are Democrats and people unaffiliated with either party, Rasmussen Reports says based on telephone surveys during the two weeks ending July 24. Rasmussen counts those who say they would vote for some other candidate (6 percent) with the 8 percent undecided to put the number of undecided at 14 percent at this point. A third of the uncommitted voters are Democrats compared to 19 percent for Republicans. Forty-eight percent are not affiliated with either party. This compares to the 8 percent uncommitted that Rasmussen identified at this point in the campaign in 2004.

A key point in the campaign stands that Barack Obama and John McCain have taken on what U.S. strategy should be in dealing with Iraq and Afghanistan is the question of which country should be the U.S. priority in the battles to put down insurgencies and fight terrorism. Part of Obama's argument for a timetable for withdrawal of U.S. troops in Iraq is that Afghanistan represents the greatest threat. McCain has insisted that withdrawal from Iraq must be determined by events on the ground and that victory there is a necessary first step towards success in Afghanistan.

Now the USA Today/Gallup poll weighs in on the question, and similarly to what Rasmussen Reports found in a national poll in mid-July and in its state-by-state polls, a plurality of Americans believe the war in Afghanistan is more important than the one in Iraq by a 44 percent to 38 percent margin. Ten percent say "both equally" and 8 percent have no opinion.

Given the news about the indictment of Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens, CQ Politics is changing its rating on that race from "Leans Republican" to "Leans Democrat." We've moved to the top of our round-up that last poll conducted on the race, which had Stevens' opponent, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, pulling ahead. See our story today on the political impact of the indictment.

Also some bad news today for Republicans from North Caroline where the latest poll shows the June lead of Sen. Elizabeth Dole slipping.

• Alaska: Democrat Mark Begich, the mayor of Anchorage, has pulled ahead of Stevens with a 50 percent to 41 percent lead in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 17. Four percent chose "other," 4 percent were undecided and the margin of error was 4.5 percent. Stevens had a statistically insignificant 46 percent to 44 percent lead over, the mayor of Anchorage, in Rasmussen's June 16 poll. Voters who view Begich favorably increased from 55 percent to 63 percentwhile Stevens' favorable-to-unfavorable ratio in June of 51 percent to 44 percent is now 50 percent to 48 percent. CQ Politics rates the race "Leans Republican."

Today we're updating North Carolina in our round-up of state match-ups between John McCain and Barack Obama.

• North Carolina: Obama continues to be competitive in a state that the Republicans have carried in the last five elections. McCain leads him by a statistically insignificant 47 percent to 44 percent with 6 percent undecided and 3 percent favoring Libertarian Bob Barr in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 23-27. The margin of error is 3.4 percent. In late June, PPP had McCain ahead by 4 points. McCain has a 9 point lead among men. Obama leads by 13 points among voters under 29 (13 percent of the sample) and McCain leads 27 percent among those over 65 (17 percent of the sample). He leads 57 percent to 34 percent among white voters (77 percent of the sample), counterbalancing Obama's huge 82 to 8 percent lead among black voters (20 percent of the sample). A Rasmussen Reports poll, conducted July 15, had McCain leading Obama 45 percent to 42 percent with 5 percent preferring "other" and 8 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable numbers were 57 percent to 40 percent while Obama's were 52 percent to 45 percent. As other surveys have previously, this one points to a problem Obama has had in getting his own party to line up behind him. McCain is supported by 85 percent of Republicans and 18 percent of Democrats while Obama draws 69 percent support among Democrats and 7 percent of Republicans. A SurveyUSA poll conducted July 12-14 showed McCain leading Obama 50 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.8 percent. Demographically, the biggest gaps were among men, who favor McCain by 20 points; voters over 65 who favor him by 26 points; whites, where McCain has a 2-to-1 lead and blacks, where Obama has a 93 percent to 6 percent lead. Blacks make up 19 percent of the sample. Obama's advantage here among those under 34 is only 8 points. McCain's support among Republicans (88 percent) is more solid than Obama's among Democrats (74 percent), with 22 percent of Democrats putting themselves in McCain's column.

Barack Obama has mused to reporters that he "wouldn't be surprised" if his eight day trip abroad might result in a dip in the polls, with Americans worried about economic conditions at home. He may be on to something, although not by any overwhelming numbers. Gallup says that in a survey conducted July 25-27 only 35 percent of respondents saw the trip positively, 26 percent saw it as a total negative and 39 percent had no opinion. Democrats were 53 percent to 8 percent positive about it, independents 31 percent to 28 percent positive (the margin of error was 3 points), and Republicans 50 percent to 18 percent negative. The Republicans' presumed standarbearer, John McCain, had labeled the trip a "premature victory lap."

Media coverage, which included the three network news anchors along for the ride, had also come into focus on the trip with criticism that it not only was lavishing too much attention on Obama but was too adoring. Thiry-nine percent of all voters in the poll thought it was unfairly positive and 39 percent said it was about right. During the period, 46 percent said coverage of McCain was about right, 32 percent said it was unfairly negative and 12 percent unfairly positive.

The daily tracking poll, as we reported just a few hours ago, has Barack Obama leading John McCain 48 to 40 percent.

A USA TODAY/Gallup poll released today shows McCain leading Obama, 49 to 45 percent.

Why the difference? The USA Today version surveyed "likely" voters, while the daily tracking poll surveys registered voters. But then again, when the USA Today/Gallup pollsters examined registered voters, Obama led McCain, but by a smaller margin than the daily tracking poll: 47 to 44 percent.

According to USA Today, Gallup editor Frank Newport "says not to read too much into [the differences between the polls]. 'Statistical noise' may be largely to blame."

The margin of error on the daily tracking poll is +/- 2 points and on the USA Today/Gallup poll, it is +/- 4 points.

Nationally, Obama leads John McCain, 48-40 percent. The survey was conducted July 25-27 and has a margin of error of +/- 2 points.

Meanwhile, today's Rasmussen daily tracking poll shows Obama with a slimmer lead over McCain: 48-45, also with a margin of error of +/- 2 points.

Huckabee scored the highest, with 15 percent giving him "Very Favorable" ratings and almost half the respondents - 47 percent - saying they viewed him at least somewhat favorably. Lieberman, the VP candidate with Democrat Al Gore in 2000, scored just under that 46 percent viewed him somewhat favorably.

Both men have high unfavorable ratings, though: for each, 39 percent had at least a somewhat unfavorable view. But those paled a bit in comparison to former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney's "negative numbers:" 48 percent view him at least somewhat unfavorably and 42 percent say they have at least a somewhat favorable view him.

The survey also asked about candidates who are on many short lists: Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Florida Gov. Charlie Crist. The pollsters write: "What the numbers also suggest, given the high percentages of "not sure" responses, is that many voters are not even aware of most of the possible ... candidates. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of voters, for example, had no opinion of Pawlenty is; 47% say the same of Crist."

The telephone survey was conducted July 25-27, 2008. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points.

Just 13 percent think the economy is getting better. That is very similar to the percentage of respondents who rated the economy "good or excellent." Thirty percent say fair and more than half - 52 percent - called the U.S. economy "poor."

The pollsters write: "Bleak as those numbers are, today's results are the least pessimistic since early May. The percentage saying the economy is getting better last reached 13% on May 11 and hasn't been higher than that since January 6. In between, the number expecting things to get better fell as low as 7% in March. "

The survey was done over the past three nights and has a margin of sampling error of +/- 2.6 percentage points.

Barack Obama's lead over John McCain in Gallup's daily tracking poll has now notched up to 9 points - 49 percent to 40 percent with 5 percent saying neither and 4 percent expressing no opinion. The margin of error is 2 percent. The Rasmussen Reports daily tracking survey has a somewhat different view, with Obama ahead 46 percent to 41 percent, which is no change since yesterday for Obama and up a point for McCain.

Remember the flap over the New Yorker cover depicting Barack Obama and his wife as fist-bumping radical Muslims? The Pew Research Center said a quarter of Americans said they had heard a lot about the controversy and another quarter heard a little. When people of all political stripes were lumped together, they thought the cover was OK by 50 percent to 45 percent. But when broken down by party, Democrats said by 65 percent to 31 percent that the cover was not all right, while Republicans said the opposite by an almost identical margin of 64 percent to 31 percent. Independents were fine with it by 59 percent to 36 percent.

Voters as a whole said by 54 percent to 45 percent that the cover was offensive (not quite how to square that with the above result) and again Democrats and Republicans differed sharply on that question with 70 percent of Democrats saying that as opposed to 41 percent of Republicans. But overwhelming majorities of respondents of all persuasions didn't think it was funny or clever. Sixty-one percent of all those surveyed said it was not racist compared to 37 percent who said it was, and while Democrats clearly disliked the cover, they said it was racist by a much smaller 53 percent to 46 percent margin.

We're updating California in our round-up of state general election match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain.

• California: Obama leads McCain 50 percent to 38 percent with 6 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 24. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Last month, Obama had led by 28 points in this survey. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 60 percent to 37 percent while McCain's is 54 percent to 42 percent. Californians put the energy priority on protecting the environment rather than bringing down the price of gasoline and oil by 52 percent to 42 percent. They believe by solid majorities that Afghanistan, and not Iraq, is the central front of the war on terror and is the biggest security threat to the U.S. A Field Poll poll conducted July 8-14 had Obama ahead 54 percent to 30 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 12 percent expressing "no opinion." The margin of error was 3.9 percent. That was a 3 point pick-up for Obama since May. The pollster says Obama has had success in bringing Hillary Clinton supporters into his fold. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 63 percent to 26 percent compared to McCain's 48 percent to 38 percent. Fifty-one percent of Obama supporters describe themselves as "very enthusiastic" about supporting him compared to only 17 percent of those backing McCain.. A June 23 Rasmussen Reports survey showed him leading 58 percent to 30 percent with 5 percent preferring "other" and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Obama is viewed favorably by 63 percent of Californians compared to 43 percent for McCain. Of the last five elections, Democrats easily won each since 1992, following Michael Dukakis' loss to the first George Bush in 1988.

Rasmussen Reports' daily tracking poll shows a bounce for Barack Obama, no doubt aided by the saturation coverage of his trip abroad that has all but eclipsed John McCain. After being tied with McCain four days ago, Obama now leads 46 percent to 40 percent with a 2 point margin of error. His advantage over McCain is the same 6 points when "leaners" towards both men are counted.

Gallup's daily tracking numbers agree.Obama has opened his biggest lead of the month with a 48 percent to 41 percent advantage over McCain with 5 percent siding with neither and 6 percent expressing no opinion. The survey was conducted July 23-25 and has a 2 point margin of error.

We're updating our round-up with polls from New Mexico and Maine, although the Maine poll we added was reported this week but actually conducted in June.

• New Mexico: Democrats appear headed for a pick-up here with Rep. Tom Udall running ahead of Rep. Steven Pearce (60-36 percent) for the seat held by retiring GOP Sen. Pete V. Domenici. Udall leads 59 percent to 34 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 24. Udall enjoys a 66 percent favorable rating compared to 46 percent for Pearce. Domenici had held this seat since 1973.

We're updating the round-up of John McCain vs. Barack Obama match-ups for the swing state polls released yesterday by Quinnipiac University/Washington Post/Wall Street Journal, including Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin. We also update New Mexico and Pennsylvania.

• Colorado: McCain is leading Obama 46 percent to 44 percent with 7 percent undecided and a 2.6 percent margin of error in a Quinnipiac University/Washington/Post poll conducted July 14-22. Obama led by 5 points in this poll last month. Big gender gap here with Obama having an 11 point edge among women and McCain leading by 18 points among men. This is one of the states where Hispanics are a key voting bloc and Obama leads by 28 points. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 21 had Obama is leading McCain 49 percent to 42 percent. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. However, the contest falls within the margin of error if "leaners" are included. Last month, Obama led by 2 points. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable numbers are 52 percent to 48 percent and McCain's are 61 percent to 39 percent. In most states where Rasmussen has asked the question so far, voters care more about bringing down the price of gasoline than protecting the environment, but in Colorado they split about evenly. But like voters in other states, they see Afghanistan rather than Iraq as the main front in the war on terrorism and as the greatest threat to national security. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 9-10 by had Obama ahead of McCain 47 percent to 43 percent with 10 percent undecided and a 3 point margin of error. This is one of the states, along with Florida, Nevada and New Mexico, where Hispanics may be an important force. They make up 15 percent of the sample in the PPP poll and Obama leads among them 58 percent to 34 percent while running evenly with McCain among white voters. The state has gone Republican the last three elections (by less than 5 points in 2004), but the Obama camp thinks they can make it competitive.

Fox News/Opinion Dynamics has weighed in with its latest poll and it shows a much tighter race than the Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll from yesterday. Barack Obama leads John McCain 41 percent to 40 percent and a fairly high 19 percent undecided. (When Ralph Nader and "other" are eliminated, Obama's lead is 3 points, which is exactly the margin of error). The survey was conducted July 22-23. Last month, Obama led by 4 points and the undecideds were 14 percent. The Journal/NBC poll, conducted July 18-21, had Obama ahead 47 percent to 41 percent.

The major target of opportunity is among independents. Those that have made a choice, for now, split 34 percent to 32 percent for Obama but but 34 percent are still undecided.

The poll asked a couple of questions similar to the Journal/NBC poll on the excitement factor of each man's supporters and how "scared" a voter would be by an Obama McCain victory. Twenty-three percent of all voters would be enthusiastic about Obama as the next President and 44 percent of Democrats felt that way. Thirteen percent of all voters felt that way about McCain and that included 29 percent of Republicans. On the flip side, 19 percent were "scared" of an Obama presidency compared to 14 percent for McCain. In the Journal/NBC poll, 44 percent of Obama supporters were excited about their candidate compared to 14 percent for McCain among his supporters, and voters said by a 55 percent to 35 percent margin that Obama was the riskier choice.

John McCain has closed the gap with Barack Obama in the key swing states of Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin, according to a Quinnipiac University/Washington Post/Wall Street Journal survey conducted July 14-22. (You can find the Quinnipiac numbers here and an easy-to-scan Washington Post interactive graphic here).

The summary:

• Colorado: McCain leads 46 percent to 44 percent with the margin of error at 2.6 percent. Obama lead by 5 points in late June. The state has gone Republican the last three elections, though by less than 5 points in 2004.
• Michigan: Obama still leads here, by 46 percent to 42 percent with a 2.4 percent margin of error. That's down two points from the last poll. Michigan has gone Democrat in the last five elections with the only Republican to win being the first George Bush in 1988.
• Minnesota: Obama is ahead 46 percent to 44 percent with a 2.8 percent margin of error. His previous lead was 17 points. Democrats have won the last five elections here, but the margin in 2004 and 2000 was 3.5 percent or less.
• Wisconsin: Obama leads 50 percent to 39 percent with a 3 percent margin of error. That's also down two points since the last poll. Democrats have carried the state in the last five elections, but by less than one point in 2004 and 2000.

Barack Obama is the favorite over John McCain among Hispanic registered voters by a 66 percent to 23 percent margin, according to a Pew Hispanic Center survey conducted June 9- July 13. Obama is viewed favorably by 76 percent while McCain's number is 44 percent. And, although Obama trailed Hillary Clinton badly during the primary season among Hispanic voters, more than three-quarters of Latinos who voted for Clinton said they were inclined to back Obama in November, which is a better proportion than whites who backed Clinton, of whom 70 percent say they will back Obama and 18 percent say they will vote for McCain.

Barack Obama is leading John McCain 47 percent to 41 percent with 4 percent choosing neither and 6 percent undecided, in a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll conducted July 18-21. The margin of error is 3.1 percent. Obama's lead is the same as it was in this poll last month.

Obama held his lead even though voters, by a 55 percent to 35 percent margin, said he was the riskier choice for President.

One of our favorite (and most-used) sites, Pollster.com has undergone a facelift and now, instead of the busy-with-type-home page, you arrive to be greeted by a flashp map that lets you mouse-over all the states to see topline information, and then drill down to get to it. It's available for presidential, Senate and gubernatorial races. Here's the link to the Pollster blog explaining the changes.

Barack Obama has gained on John McCain in all three categories of states - blue (Democratic), purple (competitive) and red (Republican) since he clinched the Democratic nomination in June, according to a Gallup comparison of data it collected between March 7-June 1 and June2-July 20. His lead in blue states has gone up from 13 points to 16 points, by 6 points in purple states and he has cut McCain's advantage in red states by 3 points. When it came to the competitive states, Obama picked up 2 points while McCain dropped 4 points.

We're updating Minnesota today and New Hampshire. The new New Hampshire poll contradicts one we posted yesterday.

• Minnesota: Republican first-termer Norm Coleman is in a statistical tie with Democrat Al Franken , leading him 44 percent to 43 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 23. Eight percent prefer another candidate, 5 percent are undecided and the margin of error is 4.5 percent. Frank leads 49 percent to 46 percent if "leaners" are counted. Coleman is seen favorably by 57 percent of voters and Franken by 60 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted July 11-13 had Coleman ahead by 52 percent to 39 percent with 8 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. Check out our story, "Franken Stumbling in Minnesota Senate Race." CQ Politics changed the rating on this the race from "No Clear Favorite to "Leans Republican."

We're updating our round-up today with three key states - Colorado, Florida and Virginia - where the race between John McCain and Barack Obama looks very competitive right now.

• Colorado: Obama is leading McCain 49 percent to 42 percent, according to a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 21. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. However, the contest falls within the margin of error if "leaners" are included. Last month, Obama led by 2 points. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable numbers are 52 percent to 48 percent and McCain's are 61 percent to 39 percent. In most states where Rasmussen has asked the question so far, voters care more about bringing down the price of gasoline than protecting the environment, but in Colorado they split about evenly. But like voters in other states, they see Afghanistan rather than Iraq as the main front in the war on terrorism and as the greatest threat to national security. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 9-10 by had Obama ahead of McCain 47 percent to 43 percent with 10 percent undecided and a 3 point margin of error. This is one of the states, along with Florida, Nevada and New Mexico, where Hispanics may be an important force. They make up 15 percent of the sample in the PPP poll and Obama leads among them 58 percent to 34 percent while running evenly with McCain among white voters. Previously, a Quinnipiac University/Washington Post/Wall Street Journal poll conducted June 17-24 had Obama leading McCain 49 percent to 44 percent with a margin of error of 2.7 percent. Obama has a 12 point lead among independents. The state has gone Republican the last three elections (by less than 5 points in 2004), but the Obama camp thinks they can make it competitive.

CQ Politics has changed its ratings for the races in Colorado, Minnesota and New Hampshire with Colorado going from "No Clear Favorite" to "Leans Democrat"; Minnesota from "No Clear Favorite" to "Leans Republican"; and, in New Hampshire, we will be changing our rating on that race from "No Clear Favorite" to "Leans Democrat." You can keep track of all our ratings by checking the "Senate Races to Watch" page.

• Colorado: Democrat Mark Udall is leading former Republican Rep. Bob Schaffer 47 percent to 43 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 21. That's within the poll's 4.5 percent margin of error. Rasmussen had Udall ahead by 9 a month ago, and its new numbers suggest a closer race than the results from a Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 9-10 which had Udall ahead 47 percent to 38 percent with 14 percent undecided. The margin of error in that poll was 3 percent. A Quinnipiac University/Wall Street Journal/Washington Post poll conducted June 17-24 which had him ahead 48 percent to 38 percent. Udall and Schaffer are vying to fill the seat of retiring GOP Sen. Wayne Allard. CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Democrat."

Today we are updating Ohio, Alaska, Florida and New Hampshire.

• Ohio: McCain is leading Obama 46 percent to 40 percent with 7 percent choosing "other" and 7 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 21. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain's lead is bigger if "leaners" are counted, Rasmussen says. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 57 percent to 39 percent compared to 50 percent to 46 percent for Obama. McCain's strength among Republicans is somewhat higher than Obama's among Democrats, 88 percent to 74 percent. Voters put more importance on reducing the price of gasoline over protecting the environment by 54 percent to 28 percent. They also believe that Afghanistan more than Iraq is the principal front in the war on terror and is the greatest threat to the U.S. The Rasmussen poll is at odds with a Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 17-20 that had Obama ahead 48 percent to 40 percent with 12 percent undecided. Republicans have won three of the last five elections here, although George Bush's victory margins in the last two were by 3.5 points or less.

Barack Obama has put a bit of breathing room between himself and John McCain in Gallup's latest daily tracking poll conducted July 18-20, a survey that included two days of news about Obama abroad. Obama leads 47 percent to 41 percent with 6 percent choosing neither and 6 percent expressing no opinion. The margin of error is 2 points. Gallup notes that this matches his largest lead to date.

Today, we update Ohio, Georgia and New Jersey and add New Hampshire.

• Ohio: Obama is leading McCain 48 percent to 40 percent with 12 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 17-20. The margin of error is 3 points. Last month, PPP had Obama ahead 50 percent to 39 percent in contrast to SurveyUSA and Rasmussen Reports polls that had them neck-and-neck. McCain leads among white voters (85 percent of the sample) by 46 percent to 42 percent but Obama has a big 91 percent to 6 percent advantage among black voters (12 percent of the sample). Obama also leads by 33 points among the 15 percent of the sample that is under 29. Obama leads by 20 points among women but lags McCain 7 points among men. Quinnipiac University had Obama ahead 48 percent to 42 percent in a June 9-16 poll. The margin of error was 2.6 percent.

Not a good day for us in the media in Rasmussen Reports-land. The pollster's new surveys say Americans think the press is trying to help Obama win and the economy lose.

In a poll conducted of likely voters July 19, those who thought reporters tried to help a candidate win number 71 percent compared to the 16 percent who believed the ink-stained wretches tried to offer unbiased coverage. Forty-nine percent say that, in the upcoming campaign, the press will tilt to Barack Obama compared to 24 percent who say it will try to cover the race without bias and 14 percent who think it will favor John McCain. As far as the primary season went, 57 percent said Obama got the best treatment, McCain was second at 21 percent and Clinton last at 11 percent. Forty-five percent believe that reporters would try to hide information that would damage the candidate they favored compared to 30 percent who disagree. And all in all, voters trust their family and friends for information about the campaign over the professional press by 43 percent to 29 percent.

Republicans were much more inclined to help Israel than Democrats were.

Thirty-three percent of respondents thought the it was "somewhat" or "very" likely that the U.S. will launch a military attack against Iran before election day.

The July 17th poll has a margin of error of +/- 3 points.

According to Pew's latest results, Obama leads John McCain among women voters, 51 to 37 percent. That's not only up from the 47-42 spread in May, but it's wider than the leads held by John Kerry (1 percentage point) and Al Gore (9 points) at the same point in their campaigns against George Bush.

But Obama trails the records of Kerry and Gore with older women, over age 65. And the pollsters point out another problem with this group for Obama: "23 percent remain undecided about whom to support or say they will vote for another candidate, more than double the share that said that was the case at this point in 2004 (9%) and 2000 (11%)." The pollsters attribute this to some women's preference for Hillary Clinton.

That number is up from 62 percent in early 2001 and 44 percent in 1993. When asked "Do you think homosexuals who do publicly disclose their sexual orientation should be allowed to serve in the military or not?" a majority of almost every group polled said "yes" - regardless of age, party affiliation, gender, religion (including evangelical Christians) and marital status.

The only exception was veterans. The pollsters say: "While 71 percent of veterans said gay people who do not declare themselves as such should be allowed to serve, that number drops sharply, to 50 percent, for those who are open about their sexuality."

The telephone survey was done July 10-13 and has a margin of error of +/- 3 points.

Today's Strategic Vision poll found Obama leading McCain 47 percent to 38 percent, a significant margin in a survey with a +/- 3 margin of error. Just 33 percent approved of President Bush's handling of the war (a plurality approved of withdrawing from Iraq within six months), and a scant 14 percent approved of his handling of the economy.

Today we update the round-up of match-ups between John McCain and Barack Obama with Virginia and Nevada, which remain extremely close, and Arkansas.

• Virginia: The polls here consistently agree that McCain and Obama are in a real horse-race in a state that has gone Republican in the last five elections. A new Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 16, has Obama and McCain tied at 46 percent each with 5 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is better at 64 percent to 36 percent, while Obama's is 52 percent to 47 percent. Virginians rank national security pretty high as an issue with 30 percent choosing that as the issue with which they are more concerned, while 42 percent named the economy. Voters put more importance on lowering gasoline prices than protecting the environment by 48 percent to 40 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted June 20-22 had Obama and McCain in a statistical ties with Obama ahead 49 percent to 47 percent, within the 4 point margin of error. A Public Policy Polling Survey conducted June 14-16 had Obama ahead of McCain 47 percent to 45 percent with 8 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 percent.

And it gets worse for McCain:

• Half of McCain's backers say the race makes them frustrated, double those of Obama's.
• 65 percent of Obama's supporters say they're hopeful about the campaign, double McCain's margin.
• 24 percent of those preferring McCain say they might change their candidate vs. 16 percent of Obama's backers.

The poll was conducted June 13-23 and the margin of error is +/- 2.3 percentage points.

Today we're updating North Carolina, Oregon and Washington State, and adding Kansas.

• North Carolina: Obama is running competitively in a state that the Republicans have carried in the last five elections. Rasmussen Reports polling have shown Obama and McCain running statistically even in this state since May and its new poll, conducted July 15, is no exception. McCain leads Obama 45 percent to 42 percent with 5 percent preferring "other" and 8 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable numbers are 57 percent to 40 percent while Obama's are 52 percent to 45 percent. As other surveys have previously, this one points to a problem Obama has in getting his own party to line up behind him. McCain is supported by 85 percent of Republicans and 18 percent of Democrats while Obama draws 69 percent support among Democrats and 7 percent of Republicans. A SurveyUSA poll conducted July 12-14 showed McCain leading Obama 50 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.8 percent. Demographically, the biggest gaps were among men, who favor McCain by 20 points; voters over 65 who favor him by 26 points; whites, where McCain has a 2-to-1 lead and blacks, where Obama has a 93 percent to 6 percent lead. Blacks make up 19 percent of the sample. Obama's advantage here among those under 34 is only 8 points. McCain's support among Republicans (88 percent) is more solid than Obama's among Democrats (74 percent), with 22 percent of Democrats putting themselves in McCain's column. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted June 26-29 hadMcCain leading Obama 45 percent to 41 percent with Libertarian Bob Barr drawing 5 percent and 9 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 percent. PPP also noted that the hurdle for Obama is firming up support among Democrats. That poll had Obama with 67 percent support in his party compared to 83 percent that McCain enjoys among Republicans. McCain also appealed to 20 percent of Democrats. A Civitas Institute poll conducted June 11-13 had McCain ahead 45 percent to 41 percent with a 4 point margin of error.

Some significant headlines in our updated polls of Oregon and Kansas: the Democratic challenger in Oregon has moved into a statistical tie with Republican incumbent Gordon Smith while, in Kansas, incumbent Pat Roberts is pulling away from his opponent. And because of Democrat Al Franken's troubles in Minnesota, CQ Politics will be changing its rating of that race from "No Clear Favorite" to "Leans Republican." We also update North Carolina.

• Oregon: Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley, the speaker of the state House, has pulled out in front of two-term Republican Smith by 43 percent to 41 percent with 4 percent preferring "other" and 11 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 15. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. That makes the race pretty a statistical tie after Smith led by 47 percent to 38 percent in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted June 11. If "leaners" are counted in, the race is a numerical tie at 46 percent each. Smith's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 53 percent to 45 percent while Merkley's is 51 percent to 34 percent with 15 percent "not sure." For more background on the race, see our story "Parties Debate Smith's Independence on the Campaign Trail" and the Washington Post's "On Obama's Coattails, an Uninvited Rider." CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Republican."

Barack Obama said in his July 14 foreign policy speech that "the central front in the war on terror is not Iraq, and it never was. That's why the second goal of my new strategy will be taking the fight to al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan."

A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 14 says that a plurality of Americans agree with him. They reject the idea that Iraq is the central front in the war on terror by 48 percent to 30 percent with 22 percent undecided, and they agree that Afghanistan is that front by 43 percent to 33 percent with 24 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points. Forty-eight percent say Afghanistan is a greater threat to U.S. security compared to 28 percent who cite Iraq.

Obama also said in his speech: "This war diminishes our security, our standing in the world, our military, our economy, and the resources that we need to confront the challenges of the 21st century." Rasmussen turned that into a question and 51 percent said they agreed, 34 percent disagreed and 14 percent were undecided.

Nearly-two thirds expressed confidence that the next President could resolve the Iraq situation in a way favorable to the U.S.

We're adding South Dakota today to our round-up of polls on Senate races.

• South Dakota: Two-term Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson leads Republican State Rep. Joel Dykstra 60 percent to 35 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 9. Johnson, who has recovered from a near-fatal brain hemorrhage in late 2006, is viewed favorably by 69 percent of voters while the most important number Dykstra's favorability rating is the 22 percent who don't know enough to have an opinion. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Democrat."

Despite recent criticism from some on the Left about his perceived move to the middle, Barack Obama has maintained and even built modestly on support from self-identified liberals both within and outside the Democratic Party, according to a Gallup analysis of its daily tracking data between July 7-13. Liberals who say they are Democrats give Obama 92 percent support up from 85 percent at the beginning of June and those who call themselves liberal but are not necessarily Democrats give him 82 percent support, up from 78 percent. Obama's support among moderate Democrats is 79 percent and 68 percent among conservative Democrats.

John McCain gets 90 percent support from conservative Republicans and 73 percent from moderate-to-liberal Republicans.

We're updating California and North Carolina today. California is all good news for Barack Obama and the numbers in North Carolina show a contest with John McCain that is within reach, but Obama is having trouble solidifying Democrats behind him.

• California: Obama leads McCain by 54 percent to 30 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 12 percent expressing "no opinion" in a Field Poll poll conducted July 8-14. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. That's a 3 point pick-up for Obama since May. The pollster says Obama has had success in bringing Hillary Clinton supporters into his fold. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 63 percent to 26 percent compared to McCain's 48 percent to 38 percent. Fifty-one percent of Obama supporters describe themselves as "very enthusiastic" about supporting him compared to only 17 percent of those backing McCain.. A June 23 Rasmussen Reports survey showed him leading 58 percent to 30 percent with 5 percent preferring "other" and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Obama is viewed favorably by 63 percent of Californians compared to 43 percent for McCain.A SurveyUSA poll, conducted June 17-19 had Obama ahead of McCain 53 percent to 41 percent with 6 percent undecided . The margin of error was 4.5 percent.

Gallup says that the job approval rating for Congress has dropped to its lowest point in the 34 years the pollster has been asking the question. In a survey conducted July 10-13, only 14 percent of Americans said Congress was doing a good job compared to 75 percent who disapproved of its performance. The disapproval number was just short of the record-high of 78 percent recorded in 1992.

Although Democrats are in control on the Hill, the decline was powered largely by self-described Democrats where the number who approved of Congress' performance dropped from 23 percent in June to 11 percent. The Republican approval number actually went up, from 15 percent to 19 percent, while independents approving of Congress slipped slightly from 16 percent to 14 percent.

Barack Obama leads John McCain 45 percent to 39 percent, according to a New York Times/CBS News poll conducted July 7-14. The margin of error is 3 percent. Worth noting: 72 percent of voters said their minds were made up, while 28 percent said it was too early to say for sure. The Times/CBS poll compares to a Washington Post/ABC News Poll released earlier today that had Obama ahead 50 percent to 42 percent, also with a 3 percent margin of error. While the Post/ABC News poll emphasized Obama's strength against McCain on domestic issues, but his weakness compared to McCain as far as who voters trusted on foreign policy, The Times honed in on what its poll found about the racial divide exposed by the campaign.

The Times/CBS News survey found that nearly 60 percent of blacks believed race relations were generally bad compared to 34 percent of whites. Blacks and whites sharply divided on questions of how much progress had been made in ending racial discrimination, and how great the racial barriers were facing blacks.

Barack Obama leads John McCain by 50 percent to 42 percent in the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted July 10-13. The margin of error is 3 points. That compares to a 4 point lead in mid-June after Obama clinched the Democratic nomination and a 7 point lead in May. Asked to rate both candidates on 17 issues, the poll said Obama consistently came out ahead except on social issues, where he and McCain were about even, and terrorism, where voters preferred McCain by points. The top three issues chosen as "extremely important" by voters were the economy (50 percent), gasoline prices (48 percent) and Iraq (42 percent). On the economy, voters trusted Obama over McCain by a 54 percent to 35 percent margin

As Barack Obama gives a speech on Iraq and Afghanistan in Washington this morning, as a prelude to his upcoming trip to both countries, a Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted July 10-13 finds Americans split down the middle between his proposal to withdraw most American troops from Iraq in 16 months and McCain's insistence that events on the ground dictate when troops are withdrawn. Fifty percent of those polled favored a timetable and 49 percent opposed one.

Voters are also closely divided on which man they trust more to handle Iraq. Forty-seven percent say McCain while 45 percent choose Obama and 9 percent are undecided. That difference is within the poll's 3 point margin of error. One area, however, where McCain stands far better than Obama is in who Americans believe would be a better commander-in-chief. Seventy-two percent say it would be McCain as opposed to 25 percent who disagree, while the public is split 48 percent to 48 percent when it comes to measuring Obama against that question. A majority of voters say both men have been clear in articulating their positions.

The sharp division on these questions could trace in part to widespread American opposition to the Iraq war, tempered by the greater faith in McCain's experience.

Americans believe 63 percent to 36 percent that the war in Iraq was not worth fighting; but they do, by a modest 51 percent to 45 percent majority that war in Afghanistan, launched in response to the Sept. 11 2001 terrorist attacks in the U.S., was worth fighting. Obama lately has been trying to make the case that Afghanistan is the key front in the war on terror and that the energies invested in Iraq have hurt that effort.

Rasmussen Reports, in its state-by-state match-ups of the two candidates, has been asking whether voters prefer the next President have the goal of getting the troops home by the end of his first term, or winning the war - and in nearly all cases, "getting the troops home" is the top choice, often by large margins.

The New Yorker magazine's cover depicting Barack Obama as a Muslim was said by the magazine's editors to be an attempt to satirize some of the whispering campaigns by Obama opponents meant to raise questions about him.

The Pew Research Center says, based on polling June 18-29, says that despite all the ink and air time about Obama's religion, the number of people who incorrectly think he is in fact Muslim has stayed fairly consistent, with 12 percent believing that now compared to 10 percent in March. About a quarter of voters say they don't know his religion.

The percentage of those who believe he is Muslim is about the same for Republicans, Democrats and independents. The question doesn't make much difference to Republicans who overwhelming support McCain whether they think Obama is a Muslim or not. But among Democrats, voters are 28 points less likely to say they support Obama if they believe he is Muslim rather than Christian.

Today we're updating the Senate race in Louisiana and Iowa, with Jesse Ventura's decision not to get into the Minnesota race, bringing you the latest polls from that state. Also, the first South Carolina poll.

• Louisiana: Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu, seeking a third term, holds a modest but steady 49 percent to 44 percent lead over Republican challenger John Kennedy in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 9. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. In June, Rasmussen had these two within the margin of error is each other with Landrieu leading by 3 points. Both candidates are regarded favorably by more than half of voters. This seat has been considered one of the few Democratic ones to be vulnerable. A Southern Media & Opinion Research survey conducted June 26-28. Undecideds are 13.9 percent and the margin of error is 4 percent. Landrieu is viewed favorably by 61 percent of voters and unfavorably by 34 percent. Kennedy is also viewed favorably by 61 percent, unfavorably by 10.5 percent while 28.5 percent did not know or were unfamiliar with him. CQ Politics currently rates the race "Leans Democratic."

Today we're updating Iowa and adding South Carolina in our round-up of state match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain.

• Iowa: Obama appears to be widening his lead over McCain, registering 48 percent to 38 percent against him in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 10. That lead has grown from 2 points in May to 7 points in June and now double-digits. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Seven percent of voters chose "other" and 7 percent were undecided. Both men are regarded favorably by more than half of voters. Iowans are evenly split when asked whether protecting the environment or reducing the price of gasoline is more important. A SurveyUSA poll conducted June 13-16 had Obama ahead 49 percent to 45 percent with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. McCain leads by 17 points among men and Obama leads by 15 points among women. Obama's lead among voters under 34 is 23 points. Iowa has gone Democratic in 4 of the last 5 elections, but George Bush's victory in 2004 and Al Gore's win in 2000 were each by less than a point.

Former Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura said tonight on CNN's The Larry King Show that he won't jump into the Senate race between Republican incumbent Norm Coleman and Democratic challenger Al Franken "at this moment." He called it an "agonizing decision." Here is what the most recent polls said a Ventura candidacy would have meant:

• Minnesota: Conflicting polls here. In a head-to-head matchup Republican first-termer Coleman, leads Franken by 52 percent to 39 percent with 8 percent undecided, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted July 11-13, about the same results as in its June poll. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. The pollster says that with Ventura in the race he would have finished second or tied for second and taken about the same amount of votes from both candidates, Coleman has more solid support among his own party (94 percent) than Franken does with Democrats (77 percent), and Coleman has a 45 percent to 39 percent edge among unaffiliated voters, a fall-off for Coleman since last month. But a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 10 had the race a statistical dead heat with Franken at 44 percent and Coleman at 42 percent with 7 percent favoring "other" and 8 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Had Ventura entered the race, Rasmussen put the numbers at Coleman 36 percent, Franken 34 percent and Ventura 22 percent with 9 percent undecided. Coleman and Franken had similar favorability numbers, but those who saw Ventura unfavorably amounted to 64 percent. Rasmussen says that Ventura would have taken 14 percent of Republicans from Coleman, 21 percent from Franken, and would have come in second to Coleman among unaffiliated voters. A recent survey by Quinnipiac University/Wall Street Journal/Washington Post, conducted June 17-24, included just Coleman and Franken, with Coleman leading 51 percent to 41 percent and also showed Coleman with more strength among independents . CQ Politics rates the race "No Clear Favorite."

Today's round-up of general match-ups between John McCain and Barack Obama updates Colorado, Michigan and Louisiana, and adds South Dakota.

• Colorado: This state has been in play for a while now, and the latest survey conducted July 9-10 by Public Policy Polling continues to show that. Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 43 percent with 10 percent undecided and a 3 point margin of error. This is one of the states, along with Florida, Nevada and New Mexico, where Hispanics may be an important force. They make up 15 percent of the sample in the PPP poll and Obama leads among them 58 percent to 34 percent while running evenly with McCain among white voters. Previously, a Quinnipiac University/Washington Post/Wall Street Journal poll conducted June 17-24 had Obama leading McCain 49 percent to 44 percent with a margin of error of 2.7 percent. Obama has a 12 point lead among independents. A Rasmussen Reports poll, conducted June 17, had Obama leading McCain 43 percent to 41 percent with 8 percent choosing "other" and 7 percent undecided according to. McCain's favorable-unfavorable ratio is 54 percent to 44 percent and Obama's is 50 percent to 49 percent. The state has gone Republican the last three elections, but the Obama camp thinks they can make it competitive.

There has been much said and written about whether there is a changing of the guard in the leadership of the black community in the wake of the Jesse Jackson flap in which he accused Barack Obama of "talking down to black people" and threw in some extra choice words about what he might like to do to Obama. Gallup weighs in today with a survey, based on data collected June 5-July 6 on who black Americans saw today as the lead spokesman on issues of race.

Obama far outpaced everyone else with 29 percent, but 49 percent selected someone else, 7 percent said "no one" and 9 percent had no opinion. Obama was followed by Al Sharpton at 6 percent, Jackson at 4 percent, Bill and Hillary Clinton both at 3 percent and Oprah Winfrey at 2 percent. The poll was conducted before the Jackson controversy broke into the news.

Expectations for what an Obama victory might mean for opportunities for blacks are positive but somewhat tempered. Sixty-five percent believe they will get better but only 23 percent say "a lot better." Fifty-six percent of all adults believe they would get better but, there too, only 16 percent say "a lot better." If Obama loses, a plurality of blacks - 45 percent - believe the state of race relations will not change while 16 percent say they will get a little worse and 18 percent say a lot worse. Seventy-four percent of all adults and 85 percent of blacks believe an Obama victory will signal progress in race relations and about 8 in 10 of all adults, and all blacks, say it will open up opportunities for other blacks in politics

You can find more background on attitudes of black Americans in a study released last November by the Pew Research Center and National Public Radio.

Today we update Missouri where a new poll shows Barack Obama ahead of John McCain.

• Missouri: Obama leads McCain 48 percent to 43 percent with 9 percent undecided, according to a Research 2000 poll conducted for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch KMOV-TV. The poll was conducted July 7-10 and has a margin of error of 3.5 percent. This poll contrasts with two previous ones by other organizations that had McCain ahead, although by numbers close to or within the margins of error. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio among voters is 54 percent to 37 percent while McCain's is 49 percent to 43 percent. McCain has an 11 point lead among white voters while Obama has an overwhelming lead among blacks. Obama has a slim 4 point lead among independents. Among age groups, the only one in which either candidate has a big advantage is with voters under 29 where Obama is ahead by 15 points. Thirty-five percent of Missourians think McCain's age will be important to voters. The top five issues for voters (in this order) were the economy, Iraq, lowering gas prices, health care and terrorism. Of those, voters believed Obama would better deal with the economy, gas prices and health care by 16 points, 15 points and 23 points respectively, the two ran about even on Iraq, while McCain led Obama on the terrorism issue by 19 points. On Iraq, 46 percent said the U.S.'s next move should be to withdraw some troops and 27 percent said it should withdraw all the troops. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 7 had McCain ahead of Obama 47 percent to 42 percent with a 4.5 percent margin of error. Public Policy Polling Conducted a survey July 2-5 that had McCain leading 47 percent to 44 percent with 9 percent undecided and a 3.6 percent margin of error. Republicans have won 7 of the last 10 elections here with George Bush winning by about 7 points and 3 points in 2004 and 2000, and Clinton winning by about 6 in 1996 and about 11 in 1992.

Barack Obama's lead in Newsweek's latest polling has shrunk from the 51 percent to 36 percent advantage he had in the survey conducted June 18-19 to a 44 percent to 41 percent dead heat with 15 percent of voters saying they were undecided. The new poll was conducted July 9-10.The margin of error is 3 points.

(Gallup's daily tracking poll today, based on interviews July 9-11, has Obama ahead 47 percent to 43 percent with a 2 point margin of error).

In the latest Newsweek poll, McCain has taken the lead among independents 41 percent to 34 percent compared to Obama's 48 percent to 36 percent advantage in June. However, the number of undecided independents has gone up from 16 percent to 25 percent. Obama's lead among women voters has fallen from 21 points to 6 points. McCain had also opened up a lead among white voters, going from a statistical tie in June to a 12 point edge in the latest survey. Obama has not made much headway in picking up more Hillary Clinton supporters. Sixty-nine percent said in June, after he clinched the nomination, that they would back him and that has only increased by a point.

We're adding Illinois in our round-up of Senate polls.

• Illinois: Two-term Democrat Richard Durbin leads Republican Steven Sauerberg, a physician, 61 percent to 27 percent with 11 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 8. Durbin is viewed favorably by 63 percent of voters while Sauerberg's problem is that 36 percent described themselves as "not sure," meaning they don't know much about him. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Democrat."

The public perceptions of where Barack Obama and John McCain have changed since February, when they were in the thick of the primary season, Gallup says. The change has been sharper in McCain's case. In February, only 30 percent of voters thought McCain was too conservative; now, 40 percent do. The number of voters who think his views are "about right" has dropped from 42 percent to 37 percent and those who think he's too liberal fell from 20 percent to 15 percent. Those that thought Obama too conservative amounted only to 8 percent in February and 9 percent now, those who considered his views about right have dropped from 47 percent to 43 percent, and those regarding him as too liberal have risen from 37 to 40 percent.

Looking at it by political affiliation, 60 percent of Republicans regard McCain's views as about right, a slight decrease from February while 68 percent of Democrats feel that about Obama, a 10 point increase from five months ago. The number of independents holding that view of McCain fell from 42 percent to 34 percent, and in Obama's case, from 49 percent to 44 percent.

Republicans seeing Obama as too liberal rose from 65 percent to 75 percent and Democrats seeing McCain as too conservative rose from 43 percent to 57 percent. As for independents, those who saw Obama as too liberal rose from 33 percent to 36 percent and McCain as too conservative went up from 33 percent to 41 percent.

The survey was conducted June 15-19.

Our round-up of state match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain today updates Wisconsin and adds North Dakota. Good news in both places for Obama who has gone from a dead heat with McCain in Wisconsin to an 11 point lead and is running even with him in North Dakota, which has been a rock-ribbed Republican state.

• Wisconsin: Obama has opened up a 50 percent to 39 percent lead over McCain after holding only a 2 point lead a month ago, according to a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 8. Ten percent were undecided and the margin of error is 4.5 percent. Both men have high favorability ratings - Obama at 61 percent and McCain at 57 percent. Twenty-eight percent believe McCain is too old to be President and 40 percent say Obama is too inexperienced (50 percent reject that view). By 58 percent to 35 percent, voters want the next President to concentrate on getting U.S. troops home from Iraq rather than having the goal of winning the war. Two previous polls also had Obama ahead here. A Quinnipiac University/Washington Post/Wall Street Journal survey conducted June 17-24 put Obama in the lead by 52 percent to 39 percent, helped by a 13 point edge among independents. The margin of error was 2.5 percent. A SurveyUSA poll, conducted June 13-16, had Obama leading McCain 52 percent to 43 percent with 6 percent undecided, according to. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. Obama has a 23 point lead among women and a 20 point lead among voters under 34. Democrats have carried the state in the last five elections, but by less than one point in 2004 and 2000.

Voters are showing record high levels of engagement in this year's campaign, and if that translates into higher turnout, it is something that may favor Democrats whose ranks have shown more enthusiasm than the Republicans, according to a Pew Research Center survey. Pew says that its poll, conducted June 18-29, found that 72 percent of all voters had given "quite a lot" of thought to the election compared to 58 percent in June 2004 and 46 percent in June 2000.

The Democratic "engagement" figure was 77 percent compared to 72 percent for Republicans and 66 percent for independents. A poll released by Pew earlier this month found that when it came to following the campaign closely, Democrats appeared more interested than Republicans by a 52 percent to 28 percent.

How powerful an issue will immigration be in the presidential campaign? A Gallup survey conducted June 5 through July 6 suggests that it will not be as hot-button an issue as it was in some primary states and in the tangling of legislation on Capitol Hill.

Gallup says 39 percent of Americans favor a reduction in immigration compared to 45 percent a year ago. Gallup says that during much of the post-9/11 period at least a plurality of Americans had previously favored cutbacks, with the high point being 58 percent after the terrorist attacks. Americans think immigration is a good thing for the country by a 64 percent to 30 percent margin, a slight increase from a year ago. Gallup noted that its polling in June found only 27 percent of Americans said immigration would be an "extremely important" factor in how they voted, which ranked it last among eight issues tested.

Forty-one percent of whites said immigration should be kept at its present level, 15 percent said it should be increased and 42 percent said it should be decreased. Thirty-five percent of blacks said it should stay at current levels, 21 percent said it should be increased and 39 percent said it should be decreased. As for Hispanics, 40 percent favored keeping it at current levels while those who favored increases or decreases tied at 28 percent. Large majorities of whites and blacks said immigrants costs taxpayers too much while not paying their fair share of taxes. Hispanics believed the opposite, also by large margins.

We're adding Illinois to our round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain. Be sure also to see Taegan Goddard's Political Insider blog today where he'll help color in the electoral map for you.

• Illinois: Obama leads McCain in his home state 50 percent to 37 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 9 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 8. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Both Obama and McCain are viewed favorably by 60 percent of voters, although Obama's "very favorables" are higher. Thirty-one percent of voters think McCain is too old to be President. Thirty-eight percent think Obama is too inexperienced but that's offset by 54 percent who reject that idea. Voters think the next President's goal in Iraq in the next four years should be to bring U.S. troops home rather than win the war by a 56 percent to 35 percent margin. Democrats have carried the state in the last four elections. Illinois went Republican in the six before those.

We're updating New Jersey in our round-up of Senate polls.

• New Jersey: Democrat Frank Lautenberg leads former Republic Rep. Dick Zimmer 49 percent to 36 percent with 6 percent choosing "other" and 9 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 7. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Lautenberg's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 50 percent to 41 percent while the lesser-known Zimmer's is 45 percent to 35 percent with 20 percent undecided. In its June 9 poll, Rasmussen had Lautenberg only 1 point ahead of Zimmer. A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll conducted June 17-22 said 44 percent of voters say they never heard of Zimmer and 29 percent of those who heard of him had no opinion about him. Earlier polls had Lautenberg ahead but not quite by as much. CQ Politics rates this race "Democrat Favored."

Twenty-three percent of Americans say that John McCain at 72 would be a less effective president because of his age, according to a USA Today/Gallup survey conducted June 15-19. Sixty-five percent said it would make no difference and 11 percent believed it would make him more effective. The question Gallup chose to ask about Obama was whether his race would make him more or less effective, and 82 percent said it would make no difference, 9 percent said it would make him more effective and 8 percent said it would make him less effective.

But let's stay with the age question for a moment, and look at a different question about Obama: how many Americans think the first-term Senator is too inexperienced to be President? Rasmussen Reports has been asked the age and experience question about McCain and Obama respectively in its state general election match-ups. In 16 Rasmussen polls that we could find with these questions, between 20 percent and 29 percent of voters thought McCain was too old in 11 states, and 30 percent to 39 percent thought the same thing in five states, with 39 percent of New Yorkers believing that.

As for Obama and experience, the number of voters in most states who thought he was too inexperienced ranged from 42 percent to 56 percent, with Obama faring the best in Maine, New York and California where the number of voters deeming him too inexperienced was in the high-30s.

Today we update Missouri and New Jersey in our round-up of John McCain-Barack Obama match-ups around the country.

• Missouri: McCain leads Obama 47 percent to 42 percent with 6 percent preferring "other" and 5 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 7. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. In Rasmussen's June 3 poll of the state, before Obama clinched the Democratic nomination, the two were running about even. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 58 percent to 39 percent while Obama's is 50 percent to 48 percent. Twenty-eight percent of voters believe McCain is too old to be President. On the flip-side, voters say Obama is too inexperienced by a 50 percent to 43 percent margin. Asked whether the next President's top goal in Iraq should be too bring the troops home or win the war by the end of his first term, Missourians said getting the troops home by 53 percent to 40 percent. Public Policy Polling also released a survey today, conducted July 2-5, that had McCain leading 47 percent to 44 percent with 9 percent undecided and a 3.6 percent margin of error. Republicans have won 7 of the last 10 elections here with George Bush winning by about 7 points and 3 points in 2004 and 2000, and Clinton winning by about 6 in 1996 and about 11 in 1992.

During the Democratic primaries, Hillary Clinton usually left Barack Obama in the dust when it came to voters with less formal education and he also ran behind John McCain among them. But now Obama has apparently erased McCain's advantage with this demographic, according to a Gallup tracking data collected during June. The two candidates split that vote at 43 percent each, a change from March when McCain led by 7 points. So, Obama may be gaining back this key Democratic constituency.

McCain had led Obama in March and April by 11 and 12 points respectively among men with a high school education or less, and now that lead is down to 4 points. McCain had a smaller lead among women in this group, in the 3 to 4 point range, but now Obama leads by 4 points. Obama has made progress but still lags badly among whites when these voters are sorted by race. McCain had a 23 point lead in March and still is ahead by 17 points. Among non-whites, Obama has had giant leads all along, and bests McCain by 56 points.

Congress has scored its lowest marks yet when it comes to approval of the way it is doing its job says a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted .July 1. Only 9 percent of respondents in this poll said Congress was doing a good or excellent job and 62 percent do not believe that Congress, over the last year, has passed any legislation that will significantly improve life in the U.S. Asked whether over the next year if they believed Congress will address the most important problems facing the nation, voters said by a 55 percent to 41 percent margin that it was not very likely. Seventy-two percent said members of Congress were more interested in their own careers than helping people.

John McCain leads Barack Obama 50 percent to 40 percent among voters who say religion is an important part of their daily lives while Obama leads McCain 55 percent to 36 percent among those who are less religious, according to Gallup data collected between March and June.

McCain's lead among more religious voters is even higher among white Protestants 63 percent to 27 percent) and white Catholics (53 percent to 37 percent). Less religious white Protestants and Catholics split fairly evenly between the two. However, Hispanic Catholics who say religion is important to them support Obama 57 percent to 31 percent and he leads 90 percent to 4 percent among black non-catholic Christians who describe themselves as religious. Jewish voters who say religion is an important part of their daily lives (and their numbers are smaller than the other groups) split evenly at 45 percent each for Obama and McCain. Non-religious Jews back Obama 68 percent to 26 percent.

John McCain has a statistically significant lead over Barack Obama ... among pet owners, according to an AP-Yahoo poll conducted June 13-23. And if you narrow it down to dog owners, McCain looks even better.

Yes, it has come to this.

McCain is favored by pet owners by a 42 percent to 37 percent margin (the margin of error is 2.3 points). Dog owners back McCain 43 percent to 34 percent.

McCain has an English springer spaniel (Sam), a mutt (Coco), two turtles (Cuff and Link), a black and white cat (Oreo), a ferret, three parakeets and he also keeps saltwater fish.

Obama has nada.

The pet industry estimates that 63 percent of American households have a pet.

As for those who don't, they favor Obama 48 percent to 34 percent.

Gallup had a bit of presidential polling history today, noting that in the last nine presidential elections that were competitive, the candidate who was ahead in the polls in July did not end up winning the popular vote in November. Barack Obama has consistently led John McCain in its daily tracking poll for the past month but his average lead among registered voters has only been about 3 points, not too far from the margin of error. In looking back at elections since 1948, Gallup weeded out races where the winner were runaway favorites by between 16 and 36 points in July and who all won by double-digits in November except for Bill Clinton in 1996, who edged Bob Dole by a respectable 8.5 points. The other non-competitive races were Ronald Reagan-Walter Mondale in 1984, Richard Nixon-George McGovern in 1972, Lyndon Johnson-Barry Goldwater in 1964 and the Dwight Eisenhower-Adlai Stevenson contests of 1952 and 1956.

Our latest addition to general election match-ups of Barack Obama and John McCain is Rhode Island. No surprises in this state which has voted for the Democratic candidate in 8 of the last 10 presidential elections.

• Rhode Island: Obama leads McCain 55 percent to 31 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 9 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 1. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama is viewed favorably by 68 percent of voters compared to 52 percent for McCain. About two-thirds of voters say that bringing U.S. troops home from Iraq should be the top first-term priority for the next president while 27 percent say it should be winning the war.

Against the backdrop of the invasion of Iraq and the war on terrorism, an overwhelming majority of Americans say the President should get the approval of Congress before sending U.S. forces into another country or bombing terrorists, according to data collected by Gallup in May and released today. Almost 80 percent said Congressional approval should be obtained before sending U.S. forces into action and 70 percent said Congress should sign off before a bombing attack against terrorists. The finding about Congressional approval for use of American troops abroad is consistent with how most Americans felt in 1973 when former President Nixon and Congress faced off over the War Powers Act as the war in Vietnam wound down. In that year, Congress passed the act over Nixon's veto requiring congressional authorization.

On the question of bombing suspected terrorists, Democrats said by an 83 percent to 15 percent margin that congressional approval needed to be obtained, Republicans backed that view by 52 percent to 47 percent as did independents by 69 percent to 27 percent.

Gallup found some specific situations where Americans felt less strongly about the President gaining approval before acting. If the U.S. were attacked first, 53 percent said the President should be able to act unilaterally, 58 percent said he should be able to do so to rescue American citizens abroad and 50 percent said he should be able to act without Congress' approval to conduct humanitarian missions in response to natural disasters.

Here's our updated round-up of polls on Senate races around the country, with a new poll on the Louisiana re-election by of Democrat Mary Landrieu.

• Louisiana: Landrieu , seeking a third term, holds a slim 45.8 percent to 40.3 percent lead over Republican challenger John Kennedy in a Southern Media & Opinion Research survey conducted June 26-28. Undecideds are 13.9 percent and the margin of error is 4 percent. Landrieu is viewed favorably by 61 percent of voters and unfavorably by 34 percent. Kennedy is also viewed favorably by 61 percent, unfavorably by 10.5 percent while 28.5 percent did not know or were unfamiliar with him. The closeness of the race has not changed much from late May when Rasmussen Reports survey had Landrieu ahead by only 47 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent preferring "other" and 6 percent undecided. Landrieu got a favorable rating from 59 percent of voters compared to 37 percent who held the opposite view but Kennedy's favorables are 57 percent with 31 percent viewing him negatively. CQ Politics currently rates the race "Leans Democratic."

Our latest addition is Louisiana where, in the last 10 presidential elections, Democrats have won only when fielding southerners Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter. In 1968, former Alabama Sen. George Wallace carried the state in his independent run.

• Louisiana: John McCain is leading Barack Obama 52.2 percent to 35.5 percent with 12.3 percent undecided in a Southern Media & Opinion Research poll conducted June 26-28. The margin of error is 4 points. McCain is viewed favorably by 57.4 percent of voters and unfavorably by 38.3 percent. Obama is viewed unfavorably by 52.5 percent and favorably by 43 percent.

The number of Hillary Clinton supporters who said, just before she dropped out in June and called for them to support Barack Obama, that they would go to the polls in November to vote for him has dropped from 60 percent to 54 percent, according to a CNN/Opinion Research poll released Friday. The poll said that in early June, 22 percent of Clinton supporters said they would not vote at all if Obama was the party's standard bearer but now almost a third say they will stay home. Forty-three percent of registered Democrats say they would still prefer Clinton as the nominee compared to 35 percent in June.

"Many voters find it tough to immediately switch allegiances to a candidate that they once opposed, so they find a 'neutral' setting more comfortable for awhile," said Keating Holland, CNN polling director. "If that's what is happening to the Clinton supporters who now say they plan to stay at home, Obama may have nothing to worry about. If not, there's a big chunk of the party base that Obama won't be able to count on in November."

Americans may be celebrating Independence Day today but apparently they are not very happy with the state of the country on its 232nd birthday.

Sixty-nine percent of Americans said they believed the signers of the Declaration of Independence would be disappointed if they could see the way the nation turned out, according to a CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted June 26-29. That compares with 54 percent who thought, in 2001, the signers would be content. On another patriotic note, as Barack Obama learned the hard way, 41 percent said a presidential candidate should always wear a flag pin on his jacket lapel, 13 percent said "frequently," 19 percent said "only occasionally," and 9 percent said never. (The Los Angeles Times has a story: "Obama Now Wears His Patriotism on his Lapel.")

In a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 2, half of those polled said they believed "America's best days are in the past" compared to 32 percent who thought the best was yet to come. As for their thoughts on the principles of the Declaration itself, overwhelming majorities believed as the signers wrote that all men are created equal and that the Creator has endowed us with inalienable rights to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. However, only 56 percent agreed with the idea that "governments derive their only just powers from the consent of the governed." Rasmussen asked in a July 3 survey about the passage in the Pledge of Allegiance that the U.S. is a nation "with liberty and justice for all." Fifty-one percent believe that is true and 41 percent don't. Fifty-six percent said the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks had changed the country for the worse, while a quarter believe it changed the U.S. for the better.

All that being said, when asked if they could live anywhere in the world whether they would choose the U.S., 82 percent said "Yes!"

Our latest addition is Georgia which a new poll says is one southern state where Barack Obama has a change of beating John McCain.

• Georgia: McCain and Obama are in a statistical ties with McCain leading 46 percent to 44 percent in an InsiderAdvantage poll conducted July 2. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. Libertarian and former Georgia Rep. Bob Barr gets 4 percent and undecided 6 percent. Insider Advantage says: "Georgia, which has one of the highest African-American voting age populations in the nation along with an unusually young voter age population, remains the hidden battleground of the 2008 campaign. The Obama campaign is saturating television in the state, clearly believing that the 15 electoral votes in Georgia are up for grabs." The poll also said that if Obama chose former Georgia Sen. Sam Nunn as running mate, that 51 percent of voters would be more likely to back him.

A staple of campaign politics is charging that your opponent has flip-flopped on the issues and, according to a CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted June 26-29, voters believe by a 61 percent to 37 percent margin that John McCain has changed his positions for political reasons while Obama gets the same rap by a 59 percent to 38 percent margin. CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said this contrasts with 2004 when George Bush was helped by the fact that "only one-third of voters believed he would change his policy positions because of changing political dynamics" while most voters believed John Kerry was a flip-flopper.

The poll also found that the number of voters who think Obama has enough experience to be president rose from 40 percent in March to 48 percent while those who think McCain cares about people like themselves rose from 51 percent to 58 percent. Both have been vulnerable points for the candidates. You can see how the answer to the question about Obama's experience varies from state by state by looking at the Rasmussen Reports polls in our round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups. Rasmussen also has been asking if McCain is seen as too old to be president, a question that generally draws a "yes" response from between 20-to-30 percent of voters.

Seventy-six percent of those surveyed gave McCain high marks for having the right experience while 67 percent believe Obama "cares about people like you."

Democrats have consistently followed the year's campaign news in greater numbers than Republicans but the Pew Research Center said that last week the interest gap reached its peak with Democrats almost twice as likely as their GOP counterparts to say they followed political news closely. The actual figures from the June 27-30 survey were 52 percent to 28 percent.

As for the coverage, The Project for Excellence in Journalism noted in its survey of news for June 23-29 that Barack Obama continued to overshadow John McCain. Obama was featured prominently in 82 percent of all campaign stories compared to 40 percent that mentioned McCain with about a quarter of the stories focusing on divisions among Democrats and the efforts to unite the party behind Obama.

Here's our latest round-up of state polls showing how Barack Obama and John McCain are faring against each other. This one updates New York and Connecticut.

• Montana: Obama is leading McCain 48 percent to 43 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 1. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. In April, McCain had led Obama here by 5 points. Both candidates are viewed favorably by voters: Obama by 57 percent and McCain by 58 percent. A quarter of voters think McCain is too old to be President. Forty eight percent believe Obama has enough experience to sit in the Oval Office and 42 percent do not. Asked whether the top priority for the next President should be to win the war in Iraq or bring the troops home by the end of his first term, Montanans came down 50 percent to 44 percent in favor of bringing the troops home. George Bush won Montana by more than 20 points in each of the last two elections and the last time the Democrats carried the state was in 1992 when Bill Clinton beat the first George Bush with the help of Ross Perot.

With the distress of Americans growing as gasoline prices passed the $4-a-gallon mark, John McCain put the issue of offshore oil drilling back at political center stage in mid-June by proposing an end to the federal moratorium on drilling for states that wanted to allow it. Barack Obama lost little time pushing back against the idea.

Two recent national polls have pegged the number of Americans who favor measures to increase energy production through offshore drilling and other more aggressive exploration and production measures, although they have analyzed the results in somewhat different ways.

Michelle Obama is twice as disliked as Cindy McCain says an Associated Press-Yahoo poll conducted June 13-23. The survey said 30 percent have favorable views on Obama and 35 percent see her unfavorably, while McCain's favorable-unfavorable ratio is 27 percent to 17 percent.

Barack Obama and John McCain are locked in a close contest according to a CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted June 26-29, with Obama ahead 50 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. A month ago, Obama's slim edge was 3 points. When the third party candidates - Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr - are factored in, Obama's lead is 46 percent to 43 percent with Nader drawing 6 percent and Barr 3 percent. But polling director Keating Holland expects the Barr and Nader figures to decline as election day nears.

While Barack Obama trailed Hillary Clinton badly among Hispanics during the Democratic nominating battle, he is leading John McCain 59 percent to 29 percent among those voters according to Gallup data collected between March 7 and June 30. Among Hispanics who identify themselves as Democrats, Obama leads 78 percent to 13 percent and 55 percent to 30 percent among independents. About 18 percent of Hispanics say they are Republicans and they favor McCain 75 percent to 21 percent. The edge to Obama cuts across nearly all demographic lines.

While John McCain consistently trailed both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton on many domestic issues and the issue of Iraq in national and state polls, he usually led them by large margins when it came to who Americans thought was best equipped to fight terrorism. But in a finding that could impact that McCain strength, a CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted June 26-29 found that the number of Americans who believe a terrorist attack is likely over the next several weeks is at its lowest since Sept. 11, 2001. The poll said 35 percent believe such an attack is likely compared to 41 percent last summer and figures that were over 50 percent from 2002 to 2006. As for Iraq, 68 percent of Americans oppose the war.

We've pulled together all the recent polls we could find showing how Barack Obama and John McCain are faring against each other in state polls. here's what we found:

• Connecticut: In sports, they'd call this contest a laugher. Obama leads McCain by 56 percent to 35 percent in a Quinnipiac University survey conducted June 26-29. (Do you really need to know the margin of error?) Obama has a 16 point lead among independents, 13 percent among men, 18 percent among women, 13 percent among whites, and big leads in all age groups. Fifty-three percent of voters say Obama should not pick Hillary Clinton as a running mate although Democrats are somewhat more receptive, favoring the idea by 51 percent to 42 percent.

The number of Americans who see free trade as a threat rather than a boon to the U.S. economy is growing, a factor that could work against John McCain in the general election campaign, according to a CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted June 26-29. Fifty-one percent of Americans see free trade as a threat compared to 48 percent in 2006 and 35 percent in 2000. Only 4 in 10 see free trade as an opportunity. Pointing to industrial states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said "it's possible that John McCain's decision to highlight his free trade position may wind up losing him some votes among Americans who feel threatened economically by competition from other countries." Women, older Americans and lower-income voters were groups who voiced the greatest concern.

Sixty-eight percent of Americans are concerned that John McCain would pursue policies that are too similar to those of President Bush, according to a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted June 15-19. And, of that number, 49 percent say they are "very concerned." Gallup notes the tightrope McCain has to walk regarding Bush when it comes to extending his appeal beyond the Republican base without endangering it. Ninety percent of Democrats are very or somewhat concerned that McCain equals Bush as are 67 percent of independents, with high numbers of both putting themselves in the "very concerned" category. Fifty-five percent of Republicans are only somewhat or not concerned compared to 45 percent who are. As far as job approval, Bush still rates 60 percent among Republicans though only 28 percent among Americans at large.

(Interesting piece today in the Boston Globe: "Bush Base Yet to Rush to Donate to McCain.")

Gallup asked a kind of flip-side of the question for Barack Obama: how concerned are you that Obama would go too far in changing Bush policies. Forty-nine percent were somewhat or very concerned and 50 percent only somewhat or not-at-all concerned. Republicans obviously had the most concerns - 89 percent are worried about it of whom 56 percent are very concerned. Democrats are 68 percent on the not concerned scale compared to 31 percent who are, and independents 56 percent of independents are somewhat or not concerned compared to 42 percent who are.