Poll Confusion: McCain and Obama Are Tied, Close or Far Apart

June 25, 2008 2:04 PM | | Comments (0)

If you follow the daily polls on how John McCain and Barack Obama are faring, then you're probably scratching your head today.

Gallup today says that McCain and Obama are tied at 45 percent. Yesterday, it was Obama 46, McCain 43. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. The pollsters analyze the meaning of this: "Since the changes from Tuesday's results are well within the margin of sampling error, it is unclear at this point if today's results represent a further tightening of the race. The last two individual nights of polling have, however, been more favorable to McCain that what Gallup has shown for most of June."

Meanwhile, today's Rasmussen poll has Obama with an advantage over McCain, 49-45 percent. Since the margin of error is +/- 4 percent, this is a statistical tie. Rasmussen adds, though, that McCain has some good news out of today's findings: "Just 22 percent now say the McCain is too old to be President, down from 30 percent (June 6th.) Forty-one percent continue to believe that Obama is too inexperienced."

Neither of these squares well with yesterday's Bloomberg/LA Times poll, which showed Obama with a 15 point lead over McCain, if Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are in the mix.

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