Obama Gets Modest Bump After Clinching Nomination

June 11, 2008 11:25 PM | | Comments (1)

Barack Obama has opened up some breathing room against John McCain after sealing up the Democratic nomination, according to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted June 6-9. Obama leads McCain among registered voters 47 percent to 41 percent compared to the 3 point lead he had in this poll in April. The margin of error is 3.1 percent. But the NBC-Journal pollsters say that their data shows the race right now looks very competitive despite the glum environment for Republicans.

Obama leads McCain by significant margins among many groups: black voters (83 percent to 7 percent), Hispanics (62 percent to 28 percent), women (52 percent to 33 percent), Catholics (47 percent to 40 percent), independents (41 percent to 36 percent) and blue collar workers (47 percent to 42 percent). But among white men, who accounted for 36 percent of the vote in 2004, McCain leads by 20 points. White suburban women support McCain by 44 percent to 38 percent.

The poll says "200-pound ball and chain around McCain's foot is George W. Bush." (We know the gorilla in the room is 800 pounds, but how did they come up here with 200 for Bush?) Bush's approval rating is 28 percent and 54 percent of those surveyed say they want a president who will bring greater change to the country's current policies compared to 42 percent who would rather have a more experienced person as president.

As far as Hillary Clinton as Obama's running mate, this poll produces a result similar to last week's CNN/Opinion Research poll that said a hypothetical Obama-Clinton ticket would defeat a McCain-Mitt Romney by 51 percent to 42 percent, 3 points better than Obama matched alone against McCain. Gallup has also said Clinton would add 3 points to the ticket.

Today's Gallup daily tracking poll, conducted June 8-10, had Obama leading McCain 48 percent to 42 percent with the margin of error at 2 points.

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  1. 2008 Election Model
    Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation
    TruthIsAll

    Updated: June 15

    http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel.htm

    If the election were held today, Obama would win the electoral vote by 322 - 216.
    The State model projects that he would win 52.0% of the 2-party vote.
    The National model projects that he would win 53.3%.

    Obama leads the latest state poll aggregate average by 45.2- 43.4%.
    He also leads the latest national poll aggregate by 45.6 - 41.6%.

    The electoral vote is the average of a 5000 election trial Monte Carlo simulation.
    Obama won 99.8% of the trials; that’s the probability he would win.

    The model executes five scenarios of undecided voter allocation.
    In the most likely base case, 60% of undecided voters were allocated to Obama.
    In the worst case, 50% were allocated: Obama had 50.9%, 295 EV and a 90% probability.

    The latest polls indicate that these states will flip to Obama: CO, IA, MO, NM, OH, VA, NC, NV (new)

    But there’s a catch:
    It’s called Election Fraud.
    The Democratic True Vote is always greater than the Recorded Vote.

    Approximately 3-4 million Obama votes will be uncounted (70-80%).
    There will likely be vote-switching on the DREs and central tabulators.
    The Democrats need a very heavy voter turnout to overcome the fraud.
    Obama will probably need at least 54% of the True Vote (2-party) to win.

    Now for the good news: Obama should get the 54% - at a minimum.
    It’s only June and he’s leading despite all the media-driven negatives from the primary.
    Bush is at 25% in the polls – and McCain supports his policies.
    His poll numbers vs. McCain can only go up as the focus turns to the election.

    Posted by: Richard Author Profile Page | June 15, 2008 9:27 PM

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