Poll Tracker

Alabama:Two-term Republican Sen. Jeff Sessions leads Democrat Vivian Davis Figures by 58 percent to 34 percent in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted June 26. He had led by 33 points in May. Sessions is viewed favorably by 68 percent of voters compared to 27 percent who see him in a negative light, while Figures has a 37 percent positive rating compared to 42 percent who see her unfavorably. CQ Politics rates the race "Republican Favored."

Texas: Republican John Cornyn, seeking a second term, has a lead over Democratic State Rep. Rick Noriega in one recent poll and finds himself with an uncomfortably small edge in another. Cornyn is head of Noriega 48 percent to 35 percent with 8 percent preferring "other" and 9 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Report survey conducted June 25. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. In an early June poll, Cornyn had been at 52 percent. Fifty-three percent of voters have a favorable view of Cornyn compared to 28 percent who do not, while Noriega is viewed favorably by 38 percent and negatively by 38 percent. But in a Texas Lyceum poll conducted June 12-20, Cornyn and Noriega were within the 3.1 percent margin of error, with Cornyn ahead 38 percent to 36 percent with a large undecided figure of 24 percent. CQ Politics is rating this race "Republican Favored."

Kentucky: Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell is leading Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford, a Louisville businessman, 48 percent to 41 percent with 4 percent preferring "other" and 8 percent undecided in a June 25 Rasmussen Reports survey. McConnell is viewed favorably by 56 percent of voters compared to 40 percent who see him negatively, while Lunsford is viewed positively by 43 percent of voters compared to 46 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. This is a turnaround from Rasmussen's last poll. In a SurveyUSA poll conducted June 13-16, McConnell had a smaller 50 percent to 46 percent lead - right on the 4 point margin of error - with 4 percent undecided. McConnell benefited from much stronger Republican support than Lunsford has among Democrats. CQ Politics rates this race "Republican Favored."

Mississippi: Thad Cochran, seeking a sixth term, is way out in front, but Roger Wicker, appointed to fill out the term of retired Sen. Trent Lott, faces a tough race to keep his seat, according to Rasmussen Reports surveys conducted June 24. Cochran leads former state legislator Erik Fleming 59 percent to 32 percent. Fleming lost to Lott in 2006 by 64 percent to 35 percent. However, Wicker is in a dead heat with former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove. Wicker leads 48 percent to 47 percent with 1 percent professing other and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent . Last month, Musgrove had the 1 point edge. CQ Politics rates Cochran's race "Safe Republican" and the Wicker-Musgrove contest as "No Clear Favorite."

Nebraska: Republican Mike Johanns, a former governor and Secretary of Agriculture in the Bush administration, leads Democrat Scott Kleeb, a rancher and professor, by 60 percent to 33 percent in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted June 23. Johanns is regarded favorably by 73 percent of voters compared to 50 percent for Kleeb. Johanns is hoping to succeed fellow Republican Chuck Hagel, who is retiring. CQ Politics rates the race "Republican Favored."

Michigan: Five-term Democrat Carl Levin leads Republican state Rep. Jack Hoogendyk 54 percent to 32 percent with 14 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted June 21-22. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted June 13 had Levin ahead 54 percent to 37 percent with 2 percent preferring "other" and 7 percent undecided. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Democrat.".

Virginia: In a race between former governors, Democrat Mark Warner leads Republican Jim Gilmore 59 percent to 28 percent with 13 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted June 16 and 18. the margin of error is 3.3 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted June 12 had Warner outpacing Gilmore 60 percent to 33 percent. Warner has a whopping 70 percent approval rating compared to 46 percent for Gilmore. Just as stark is that 42 percent of voters regard Gilmore unfavorably compared to 24 percent for Warner. This is the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Sen. John Warner. CQ Politics rates the race "Democrat Favored."

Colorado: Democrat Mark Udall is leading former Republican Rep. Bob Schaffer 48 percent to 38 percent in the race to claim the seat of retiring GOP incumbent Wayne Allard, according to a Quinnipiac University/Wall Street Journal/Washington Post poll conducted June 17-24. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted June 17 had Udall ahead 49 percent to 40 percent. Six percent were undecided and the margin of error is 4.5 percent. Udall's lead has edged up slightly since mid-May. Udall is regarded favorably by 56 percent of voters and unfavorably by 35 percent, compared to a747 percent favorability rating for Schaffer and a 46 percent unfavorable score. Those figures for Udall are also stronger than in May. CQ Politics rates this race "No Clear Favorite."

New Jersey: Democrat Frank Lautenberg leads former Republic Rep. Dick Zimmer 45 percent to 28 percent in a Fairleigh Dickinson University poll conducted June 17-22. Zimmer is suffering from some unwanted anonymity: 44 percent of voters say they never heard of him and 29 percent of those who heard of him had no opinion about him. Earlier polls had Lautenberg ahead but not quite by as much. A Quinnipiac University survey conducted June 5-8 has by 47 percent to 38 percent. The margin of error was 2.6 percent. In that poll, 67 percent of voters didn't know enough about Zimmer to have a favorable or unfavorable opinion. CQ Politics rates this race "Democrat Favored."

Alaska: Republican incumbent Ted Stevens has a statistically insignificant 46 percent to 44 percent lead over Democrat Mark Begich, the mayor of Anchorage, in a June 16 Rasmussen Reports poll. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. In Rasmussen's mid-May poll, Begich had a 2 point edge. Stevens is viewed favorably by 51 percent of voters compared to 44 percent, while Begich is viewed favorably by 55 percent compared to 36 percent. CQ Politics rates the race "Leans Republican."

New Hampshire: Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, the former governor, leads Republican incumbent John Sununu 54 percent to 40 percent with 6 percent undecided in an American Research Group survey conducted June 13-17. The margin of error is 4 points. Shaheen picks up 16 percent of Republican votes while Sununu appeals to only 3 percent of Democrats. In a May 21 Rasmussen Reports poll, Shaheen led 50 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent preferring "other" and 4 percent undecided. CQ Politics rates this race "No Clear Favorite."

Kansas: Two-term Republican Sen. Pat Roberts has a 48 percent to 39 percent lead over his Democratic challenger, Rep. Jim Slattery in a June 11 survey by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Roberts had led 52 percent to 40 percent in mid-May. Roberts is viewed favorably by 60 percent of voters compared to 48 percent for Slattery. The last Democrat to win a Senate seat in Kansas was George McGill who was elected in 1930 to replace Charles Curtis who had resigned to become Herbert Hoover's vice president, was re-elected in 1932 and served until 1939. CQ Politics rates this race "Republican Favored."

North Carolina: Sen. Elizabeth Dole leads Democratic challenger Kay Hagan 48 percent to 38 percent and 13 percent undecided in a Civitas Institute survey conducted June 11-13. The margin of error is 4 percent. Civitas says Dole has a 63 percent to 20 percent lead among voters concerned about illegal immigration. Dole has also wiped out leads Hagan had among unaffiliated voters and women. In late May, a Public Policy Polling survey had Dole ahead 47 percent to 39 percent with 14 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.2 percent. Both surveys represent some more breathing room for Dole who had a 5 point lead in a May 8-9 survey by PPP. As of now, CQ Politics rates the race as "Republican Favored."

Minnesota: In a head-to-head matchup Republican First-termer Norm Coleman, leads Al Franken by 52 percent to 40 percent with 8 percent undecided, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted June 10-12. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. Coleman has more solid support among his own party (89 percent) than Franken does with Democrats (71 percent), and Coleman has a 60 percent to 33 percent edge among unaffiliated voters. If former independent Gov. Jesse "The Body" Ventura jumps in, as he has hinted, Coleman maintains a 41 percent to 31 percent lead over Franken, but Ventura polls 23 percent. A more recent survey by Quinnipiac University/Wall Street Journal/Washington Post, conducted June 17-24, included just Coleman and Franken, with Coleman leading 51 percent to 41 percent and also showed Coleman with more strength among independents .A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted June 11 had the head-to-head race much closer, with Coleman ahead of Franken 48 percent to 45 percent, and the race playing out Coleman over Franken 39 percent to 32 percent with a Ventura candidacy drawing 24 percent. Minnesota Public Radio reported June 30 that the Senate race so far has been the most expensive in the nation with all the candidates, including drop-out Mike Ciresi, having spent $27 million. CQ Politics rates the race "No Clear Favorite."

Oregon: Seeking his third term, Gordon Smith is leading his Democratic opponent, state House Speaker Jeff Merkley, 47 percent to 38 percent in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted June 11, but the pollster notes that this is the fourth straight month Smith has been under 50 percent. Eight percent preferred "other" and 7 percent were undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Smith is viewed favorably by 58 percent of voters and Merkley by 42 percent. For more background on the race, see our story "Parties Debate Smith's Independence on the Campaign Trail" and the Washington Post's "On Obama's Coattails, an Uninvited Rider." CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Republican."

Iowa: Democrat Tom Harkin, looking for a 5th term, leads businessman Christopher Reed 53 percent to 37 percent with 3 percent preferring "other" and 7 percent undecided in a Rasmussen reports poll conducted June 10. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Harkin is viewed favorably by 59 percent of voters compared to 43 percent for the lesser known Reed about whom 32 percent were "not sure." CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Democrat."

Louisiana: Two-term Democrat Mary Landrieu leads Republican challenger John Kennedy by only 47 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent preferring "other" and 6 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 27. That's a statistical tie given the poll's 4.5 percent margin of error. Landrieu gets a favorable rating from 59 percent of voters compared to 37 percent who hold the opposite view but Kennedy's favorables are 57 percent with 31 percent viewing him negatively. CQ Politics currently rates the race "Leans Democratic."

Montana: Five term Democrat Max Baucus has a 65 percent to 26 percent lead over GOP State Sen. Michael Lange, the nearest of the Republican contenders hoping to oppose him in November, in a poll conducted for the Billings Gazette. The next in line among the five Republicans vying for their party's nomination, Kirk Bushman, is on the short end of a 61 percent to 26 percent stick. The poll was conducted May 19-21 and if you have to know, the margin of error was 4 percent. CQ Politics rates the Race "Safe Democratic."

Maine: Republican Sen. Susan Collins has a 49 percent to 42 percent lead over Democratic Rep. Tom Allen, although that is down from the 10 point advantage she had a month ago, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted June 16. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Collins is viewed favorably by 65 percent of voters compared to 33 percent with a negative view, and Allen is viewed favorably by 56 percent compared to 37 percent. Collins support among fellow Republicans has slipped from 89 percent to 81 percent, while Allen has gained among GOP voters from 9 percent to 12 percent. Allen's support among Democrats rose from 64 percent in May to 72 percent, while Collins has the support of 24 percent of Democrats. CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Republican." This item has been corrected since its original publication.

New Mexico: If the sentiment of New Mexico voters today holds up until November, the Democratic party may pick up another Senate seat. In a SurveyUSA poll )of likely New Mexican voters, Democrat Tom Udall would easily defeat Rep. Steven Pearce (60-36 percent) for the seat held by retiring Sen. Pete V. Domenici. The poll was conducted May 12-14 before Pearce defetaed Rep. Heather Wilson in a primary (Udall had also led Wilson by a wide margin). CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Democratic."