Here's our updated round-up of polls on Senate races around the country. And there's an answer to a trivia question in here: Who was the last Democrat to hold a Senate seat in Kansas?

• Georgia: First term Republican Saxby Chambliss holds big leads over any of the five Democrats seeking to challenge him, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted June 26. He leads Dale Cardwell, a former investigative reporter, by 53 percent to 33 percent; DeKalb County chief executive officer Vernon Jones by 57 percent to 30 percent and Atlanta attorney, former legislator Jim Martin by 52 percent to 39 percent, retired businessman Josh Lanier by 54 percent to 31 percent and businessman Rand Knight by 55 percent to 31 percent. CQ Politics rates this race Republican Favored.

Barack Obama slipped back into a modest but statistically significant lead over John McCain in the latest Gallup tracking poll conducted June 26 and June 28-29. Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 42 percent with the margin of error at 2 percent. For more most last week, the two were tied.

Gallup also has a survey out today, conducted June 15-19, saying that the "swing vote" this year - political independents and moderates - currently stands at 23 percent and that unlike 2004, they view both Obama and McCain far more favorable than they did George Bush and John Kerry four years ago.

Among voters who say they are certain to vote for one candidate or another, 42 percent say they back Obama to 35 percent for McCain. Eight percent lean to Obama but say they could change their minds compared to 9 percent for McCain while 6 percent are undecided.

Handicapping the outcome of an election, whether for President or the battle for Congress, can be tricky ground when its based on voters' generic preferences for one party over another, as opposed to a specific candidate over another. But to the extent it has some use as a predictor, a USA Today/Gallup poll says - as do many other assessments - that registered voters would favor a Democrat for Congress over a Republican by 51 percent to 40 percent with 9 percent undecided. The margin is similar for "likely voters" - 52 percent to 42 percent with 6 percent undecided. The poll was conducted June 15-19 and has a margin of error of 3 percent.

CQ Politics has come to the same conclusion about the likely outcome of the House elections based on its constantly updated district-by-district assessment of House races which you can check out at "House Races to Watch" and our "Balance of Power Scorecard."

The public's view of the Supreme Court jumped 8 points this past week. And today's Rasmussen poll attributes the rise to the Court's decision striking down Washington D.C.'s handgun ban. Thirty-four percent of respondents said the Supreme Court was doing an "excellent" or "good" job, 26 percent said that earlier in the week.

The improvement came among Republicans and unaffiliated voters, Democrats' views did not change.

The pollsters found that almost two-thirds of respondents learned about the decision quickly: "On the night the ruling was issued, 64% knew what the Court had decided. Among those who knew how the Court ruled, 63% agreed with the decision and 25% disagreed. Those results are consistent with polling conducted before the Court ruled."

Meanwhile, in Rasmussen's daily presidential tracking poll, Barack Obama and John McCain held fairly steady at 49-43 percent respectively.

The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

We saved this uplifting item for your weekend enjoyment:

This week, Pew analyzed a poll showing that baby boomers (43-62 years old) may be, as the pollsters write, the "gloomiest generation." When respondents were asked to rate their quality of life on a scale from 1-10, boomers were the lowest, ranking their life, on average, 6.2. Younger adults ranked it 6.5 and older people chose, on average, 6.7.

And, boomers are more likely (55 percent) to say their income isn't keeping up with the cost of living than those younger (42 percent) or older (43 percent believe that).

While you might suspect that the boomer gloom may be a funciton of aging, the author of the analysis, D'Vera Cohn, says that might not be the case: "When it comes to quality-of-life assessments, data suggest the boomers generally have been downbeat, compared with other age groups, for the past two decades -- starting back when some were still in their twenties."

The analysis is drawn from telephone survey data conducted January 24 - February 19.

A new Lyceum poll finds Texans as discouraged as much of the rest the country: 70 percent say they think the country is on the wrong track. That is a jump from last year, when the figure was 63 percent. They were particularly glum about the economy, with 78 percent saying the country was worse off than last year (in 2007, it was 35 percent).

Even though George Bush won the state in 2004 with 61 percent of the vote, Texans are not as enthusiastic at the moment about John McCain. He has a single digit lead over Barack Obama, 43-38. Seventeen percent are undecided.

And even more - 24 percent - are undecided about the Senate race. Incumbent Republican John Cornyn has a very narrow edge over Democratic challenger Rick Noriega, 38-34 percent. CQ Politics rates the race as Republican Favored.

The telephone survey was conducted June 12-20 and respondents could answer in English or Spanish. The margin of error was +/- 3.1 percentage points.

Meanwhile, in a Rasmussen poll, McCain led Obama by a larger margin: 48-39, though Rasmussen said that is a smaller margin than last month, which was 13 points.

And, Rasmussen also had a much larger difference than Lyceum for the Cornyn-Noriega race: 48-35 percent. That, too, was down from last month's results: 52-35.

The Rasmussen poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points.

Ohio is shaping up to be, as usual, extraordinarily competitive in this year's Presidential election, according to a Survey USA poll released today that has Barack Obama leading John McCain 48-42 percent. But since the margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points, the two candidates are statistical tied.

Obama and McCain's support is mirrored among opposite demographic groups. For example, McCain leads 58-35 among men, and Obama hsa the majority of support from women, 59-35 percent. An age breakdown has Obama ahead 52-41 percent among voters under 50, and McCain beats Obama 51-41 in those over 50. McCain wins conservatives 83-13, while Obama leads among liberals 84-15 (Obama also has a 55-36 lead with moderates).

There are a few demographic areas where this pattern doesn't quite hold; McCain peels off significantly more Democrats than Obama wins Republicans (20 percent and 13 percent, respectively), but Obama makes up this gap among independents, among whom he enjoys a 45-39 edge, though a large 16 percent are undecided.

Time Magazine is weighing in today with its own poll on the presidential race. The poll of registered voters shows Barack Obama leading John McCain, 43-38 percent, what the authors are saying is "only a slight bounce from Hillary Clinton's departure from the campaign early this month. "

That's a narrower lead than Time's February poll, where Obama led McCain 48-41 percent. Twenty-eight percent thought they could change their mind before election day.

The poll was conducted June 19-25 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Check out our video on why polls differ.

If you've been watching Presidential preference polls over the past week, you might feel a bit whipsawed.

For the second straight day, Gallup's daily tracking poll Thursday has John McCain and Barack Obama tied. Both candidates dropped a point from yesterday's tracking poll, down to 44 percent. The margin of error is +/- 2 percentage points.

When the primary season ended, the big question for was: what will Hillary Clinton's loyal followers do?

The Associated Press/Yahoo poll's answer for that is a good news/bad news scenario for the Obama campaign.

On the one hand, the poll found 53 percent of Clinton supporters in April now support Obama for president - a big improvement from then, when only 40 percent of them backed Obama over John McCain.

On the other hand, almost a quarter - 23 percent - of those Clinton supporters now pick McCain over Obama. Sixteen percent are undecided, 5 percent support Ralph Nader and 3 percent said someone else.

The margin of error is +/- 2.3 percentage points. After tonight and tomorrow's joint Clinton/Obama appearances, it will be interesting to see if loyalties shift again.

A Quinnipiac/Wall Street Journal/Washington Post poll released today found Barack Obama with significant leads over John McCain in Colorado (49-44, margin of error +/- 2.7), Michigan, (48-42, +/- 2.6), Minnesota (54-37, +/- 2.5), and Wisconsin (52-39, +/- 2.5). Obama's lead in each of these states come from strong support among his base coalition of women, African-Americans and young voters. He has a large lead among independents - Obama bests McCain in that demographic by margins ranging from 8 to 21 percent in each state.

The Minnesota and Wisconsin results suggest McCain has a ways to go to make these states competitive, and Obama's advantages in Michigan and Colorado - though not large - suggest he's starting the general election in a good postion in these crucial swing states.

According to Peter Brown, assistant director at Quinnipiac, "November can't get here soon enough for Sen. Barack Obama. He has a lead everywhere, and, if nothing changes between now and November, he will make history." However, Brown cautions the Obama campaign against premature celebration: "His lead nationally, and double digits in some key states, is not hugely different from where Sen. John Kerry stood four years ago at this point in the campaign."

Barack Obama's recent campaigning in Michigan may have paid off this week: in the latest Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey, he leads John McCain, 48-39 percent. The poll was conducted June 21-22 and the margin of error is +/- 4.1 percent.

The pollsters write: "This is the second week in a row PPP has found Democrats in a large Midwestern state unifying around Obama since Hillary Clinton dropped out and endorsed him. Last week PPP showed Obama with a 50-39 edge in Ohio."

On Monday, Rasmussen reported that Obama has a four-point lead over John McCain in Pennsylvania 46 -42, a slight gain from May's results of 45-43. The margin of error was +/- 3 percent. The pollsters say: "Obama's gains have come primarily among men--the candidates are now virtually even among males."

Meanwhile, in Missouri, Survey USA found that McCain is leading Obama, 50-43 percent. The poll, which was released yesterday, had a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points.

In the most recent poll of Florida, Rasmussen reported last week that McCain was leading, 47-39.

If you follow the daily polls on how John McCain and Barack Obama are faring, then you're probably scratching your head today.

Gallup today says that McCain and Obama are tied at 45 percent. Yesterday, it was Obama 46, McCain 43. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. The pollsters analyze the meaning of this: "Since the changes from Tuesday's results are well within the margin of sampling error, it is unclear at this point if today's results represent a further tightening of the race. The last two individual nights of polling have, however, been more favorable to McCain that what Gallup has shown for most of June."

Meanwhile, today's Rasmussen poll has Obama with an advantage over McCain, 49-45 percent. Since the margin of error is +/- 4 percent, this is a statistical tie. Rasmussen adds, though, that McCain has some good news out of today's findings: "Just 22 percent now say the McCain is too old to be President, down from 30 percent (June 6th.) Forty-one percent continue to believe that Obama is too inexperienced."

Neither of these squares well with yesterday's Bloomberg/LA Times poll, which showed Obama with a 15 point lead over McCain, if Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are in the mix.

With their "unity tour" on tap for later this week, Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton may want to take note of today's Rasmussen poll.

It found that just 37 percent of voters think that Clinton wants Obama to win the Presidency, 33 percent said she doesn't want him to win and 30 percent are "not sure." Almost a 3-way split. Women were significantly more inclined than men to think Clinton wants Obama to win. The margin of error was +/- 3 percent.

Pollsters also found that while 44 percent of Democrats think Clinton should Obama's running mate (down from 51 percent after Obama clinched), just 24 percent of unaffiliated voters think Clinton should be the VP candidate. Something else for the candidates to ponder this week.

Today's analysis of an Associated Press/Yahoo poll has counter-intuitive findings. While a majority of Americans are opposed to the Iraq war, and John McCain supports it, more say McCain would do a better job in handling the war than Barack Obama would, 39-33 percent.

AP reporter Jim Kuhnhenn calls it "the hate-the-war, love-the warrior strain (that) runs through the American electorate."

Among undecided voters, McCain leads Obama 25-15 percent on dealing with the war. And, he also did better among independents: 31 percent thought McCain would do a better job, 19 percent said Obama would, 12 percent said "both" but the highest number - 36 percent - said "neither."

A Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll released late this afternoon has Barack Obama with a "sizable" lead over John McCain, 48 to 33 percent in a four-way race. Libertarian Bob Barr and independent candidate Ralph Nader got 7 percent combined. In a head-to-head race, without Nader or Barr, Obama trumped McCain, 49-37 percent.

While last week, Newsweek published a poll that also showed a 15 point lead, these results are dramatically different from other Obama/McCain polls, which have a 2-5 point difference between the candidates.

The pollsters note that the only group in which McCain has a lead is older voters, and add: "Almost half of all voters say the economy, more than any other issue, is the most important priority for the candidates to address in this election; and they prefer Obama by a 49-to-28 percent margin to handle the issue."

The survey of registered voters was conducted June 19-23 and has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

Two polls released today find little change Americans' presidential preferences.

Gallup's daily tracking poll shows Barack Obama leading John McCain, 46 to 43 percent. Because the margin of error is +/- 2 percentage points, that is not a statistically significant difference. Gallup acknowledges that point but adds: "On this long-term basis, it seems clear that Obama has a significant, albeit slight, advantage in the race."

Meanwhile, today's Rasmussen poll has Obama with a larger lead: 46 - 40 percent. When "leaners" are included, Obama's lead changes slightly: 49 - 44.

Rasmussen's margin of error is also +/- 2 percentage points.

Despite public perception of great religious divides in the U.S., most Americans (70 percent) think that "many religions lead to eternal life" and 68 percent say that there are many ways to interpret their own religion. These findings came from the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life's "U.S. Religious Landscape" survey released today.

The study authors credit a diversity of religious affiliations for the "lack of dogmatism" in American religion. For example, while 92 percent believe in God or a universal spirit, 25 percent say God is an "impersonal force," and don't feel as if they have a personal relationship with God.

Not surprisingly, the study found that: "people who regularly attend worship services and hold traditional religious views are much more likely to hold conservative political views while those who are less connected to religious institutions and more secular in their outlook are more likely to hold liberal political views." This is especially true on social issues such as abortion and homosexuality.

This is Pew's second Religious Landscape survey. For the overall survey, the margin of error was less than one point: +/- .6 percent.

By a significant margin, Americans think Barack Obama would do a better job than John McCain managing four key domestic issues, according to a Gallup/USA Today poll released today.

Respondents expressed more confidence in Obama than McCain when it comes to handling healthcare (51-26 percent), the economy (48-32), energy, including gas prices (47-28) and taxes (44-35). The economy and energy were ranked as the most important issues.

The only issue where a significant percentage of respondents thought McCain would a better job than Obama was terrorism (52-33 percent). Terrorism was ranked as the fifth most important issue. On Iraq, the two candidates were tied at 43 percent, and they were statistically tied on moral values (Obama 40, McCain 39) and immigration (McCain 36, Obama 34).

The poll was conducted June 15-19 and has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

Gallup is used to seeing a drop in voter enthusiasm in post-primary polling periods. But a Gallup poll released today shows a sharper drop in voter enthusiasm since early February of this year than in similar points during the 2004 and 2000 presidential election cycles.

With a drop of 15 percentage points nationally since this year’s Super Tuesday presidential primaries and caucuses, only 48 percent of respondents in today’s poll results said they are “more enthusiastic than usual about voting.” There was a drop of 6 percentage points among both Republicans and Democrats in 2000, and an 8 percentage-point drop for Republicans in 2004.

Yet even though both major parties this year seem afflicted by the dropoff, the “enthusiasm gap” detected by many political analysts — based largely on the vastly greatly turnout for Democratic primaries than Republican contests — appears to still be a factor.

In February, 79 percent of Democrats, a Gallup record, said they were more enthusiastic about voting. Even with a falloff to 61 percent, Democratic enthusiasm remains at a high level from a historical perspective. On the other hand, the much smaller portion of Republicans, 35 percent, who say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting is the lowest Gallup has measured for the GOP at any time during the this and the past two cycles.

Although some voters say they are less excited about voting in November, that doesn’t mean that many of them are tuning out the elections altogether. A hefty majority — 75 percent of respondents — say they have given “quite a lot of thought” to the election. Those levels of “thought” are significantly higher than they were in either June 2004 (67 percent) or June 2000 (45 percent). Gallup’s analysis, based on the connection between how much Americans thought about previous elections and the actual voter participation in those contests, “suggests 2008 will be another high-turnout election year.”

Results based on the sample of 1,460 registered voters have a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.

Rasmussen’s daily presidential preference tracking poll has held steady over the last two days, with Democrat Barack Obama holding a 7 percentage point lead over Republican John McCain. The national poll shows Obama garnering the support of 47 percent of likely voters overall to McCain’s 40 percent. Although the two senators run evenly among men, Obama has a 12 percentage-point edge over McCain among women. And McCain’s 49 percent to 42 percent lead among white respondents is far outstripped by Obama’s support among black voters … only 3 percent of whom indicated support for McCain to 93 percent for the Democrat who is seeking to become the nation’s first African-American president.

Daily tracking results are collected nightly from 1,000 likely voters on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of error for the full sample of 3,000 likely voters is ±2.

In the last year, there's been a steep drop in how confident Americans are about their banking system, according to a poll today from Gallup.

The percentage of people saying they have a "great deal" or "quite a lot" of confidence in U.S. banks has fallen to 32 percent -- down from 41 percent in June 2007 and 49 in June 2006. The lowest point since Gallup has conducted this poll was in 30 percent in October 1991.

The pollsters don't seem to find these results surprising, given the subprime mortgage crisis and the consumer credit crisis. They note: "The precipitous nature of the recent decline in consumer confidence in banking is probably best reflected by how it compares to what has been happening with confidence levels in other institutions. While confidence in banks remains above the record-low level of Congress and the low levels of many other institutions, banking has been the only U.S. institution to experience a significant drop in confidence over the past year."

Today's findings match other polls reflecting Americans' gloomy economic mood.

The poll was conducted June 9-12 and has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent points.

Almost one-third of the country says they "have feelings of racial prejudice," according to a Washington Post/ABC News poll released today. Thirty percent of white respondents, 34 percent of African-American respondents and 27 percent of "others" answered "yes" to the question: "If you honestly assessed yourself, would you say that you have at least some feelings of racial prejudice?" The overall total was 30 percent.

The pollsters also asked what effect Barack Obama's candidacy would have on American race relations. Overall, 42 percent said "help," 15 percent said "hurt" and 40 percent said "no effect." But for this question, there was a signficant difference between white and black respondents. Thirty-eight percent of white people vs 60 percent of black people thought his candidacy would have a beneficial effect. Whites were much more inclined than black people to think it would have no effect: 43-31.

The pollsters found that, overall, Obama led John McCain 48 to 42 percent, a drop for both men since the May 11 findings when Obama was also leaning (51-44). Generally, Obama had higher favorability ratings and was greeted with more enthusiasm than McCain.

Interestingly, while 23 percent of the respondents thought race was an important consideration, 40 percent thought age was important. The pollsters did not ask whether black or white, youth or older age was on peoples' mind when answering the question.

The telephone poll was conducted June 12-15 and has a margin or error of +/- 3 points.

The differences between Barack Obama and John McCain became a bit starker this week. McCain supported offshore oil drilling, Obama opposed it. McCain says he'll take public financing for the general election campaign, Obama is the first presidential candidate since the public finance system was established in 1971 to eschew it.

We thought it would be a good time to reprise how each did in a variety of national polls in the last few days. We've included the margin of error, the source and the date it was released.

Obama 51, McCain 36, +/- 4%, Newsweek, June 20

Obama 48, McCain 42, +/- 3%, USA Today/Gallup, June 20

Obama 45, McCain 41, +/- 2% Rasmussen, June 20

Obama 46, McCain 44, +/-2% Gallup Daily Tracking Poll, June 20

Obama 42, McCain 39, +/-3%, Fox News, June 19

Obama 47, McCain 42, +/- 3%, Reuters/Zogby, June 18

All of these polls were done with a methodology that is predicted to be accurate 95 percent of the time - the so-called 95% confidence interval. That means that one out of 20 polls may be wrong, by random chance alone.

While he is not at his lowest point ever, President Bush's overall job approval dropped to 25 percent in June, down from 28 percent in May, according to an American Research Group poll released today. Seventy-one percent of Americans disapprove of the way the President is handling his job.

The pollsters say Bush's drop in approval from May came from Republicans and independents. Although 61 percent of Republicans approve of the President's job performance, that is down from 70 percent in May.

And the President's rating dropped even more when respondents were asked about the way Bush is handling the economy: 23 percent approve, 64 percent disapprove and 4 percent are undecided. Fifty-five percent said their own financial situations are getting worse.

The poll was conducted June 16-19 and has a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent.

Obama's decision to forgo public financing is not likely to tarnish his public image, according to a Rasmussen poll released today .

Rasmussen found that a scant 30 percent of Americans support public financing of elections, and only 16 percent believe the issue to be "very important," leading the pollsters to conclude that Obama's opt-out will "have little impact on Obama's standing with voters."

In analyzing the findings, the pollsters wrote: "One reason voters remain unenthusiastic about public funding is that they don't see it as a way to reduce corruption. Seventy-four percent (74%) believe that rich people and special interest groups will find way to get around any campaign finance regulations to influence politicians. Only 13% disagree."

For the last 35 years, Gallup has asked Americans how much "confidence" they have in institutions of all sorts (military, schools, media, banks, even Health Maintenance Organizations - HMOs).

This year, Congress hit a new milestone: not only is it the lowest of the 16 institutions tested this year, but at 12 percent, its confidence rating is the worst Gallup has ever measured.

Today Rasmussen is out with two surveys that find strong support for John McCain's call for offshore drilling in Florida. The issue has been in the news this week.

A national poll found that 62 percent of Americans support McCain's position and only 27 percent agree with Barack Obama, who is against drilling.

Respondents were told of the candidates' positions and 55 percent of them believed that gasoline prices would go down if offshore oil drilling is allowed.

A Florida-only poll also found McCain leading Obama 47 to 39 percent in the state, well above the poll's +/- 4.5 percent margin of error. This result is in direct conflict with two polls released yesterday (but conducted before drilling became a significant issue), that had Obama leading McCain by statistically significant margins.

The poll also found that when respondents were informed before stating their presidential preference that McCain supported drilling and Obama opposed it, McCain's lead grew by three points, to 49-38. Based on their data, Rasmussen speculated that "[McCain's] call for offshore drilling may boost his campaign in the Sunshine State."

Today's daily Rasmussen tracking poll brings very modest good news for John McCain. While Barack Obama still leads McCain, 45 to 42 percent, today's are McCain's best results since June 5, when he came within two points (43-41) .

The two rivals are virtually identical when it comes to favorability scores: Obama was viewed favorably by 52 percent of respondents and unfavorably by 42 percent. For McCain, the numbers are 55% favorable and 43% unfavorable.

The daily tracking poll has a margin of error of +/- 2 percent.

While almost half of Americans have received their economic stimulus checks, a poll from Gallup today finds that the checks haven't done much to reassure people about the state of the economy.

Gallup sampled the 45 percent of Americans who have gotten checks since late April and says: "When asked to rate current economic conditions, 43% of those who have already received their tax rebates rate the U.S. economy as 'poor' and 16% rate it as 'excellent' or "good," while 44% of those who have not received a rebate rate the economy as 'poor' and 16% rate it as 'excellent' or 'good.'"

And there was also no difference in how people viewed the future: 88 percent of check recipients and 86 percent of those still waiting for checks say the economy is "getting worse."

Gallup has been polling people daily on the economy since April 27. The margin of error is +/- two percent.

Barack Obama and John McCain are currently in a dead heat in Virginia, according to a poll released today by Public Policy Polling (PPP). The survey found Obama leading 47 to 45 percent, which is statistically insignificant (the margin of error is 3.3 percent).

This result is consistent with a Rasmussen poll released two days ago that found Obama up by one point (45-44) with a margin of error of 4.5 percent.

PPP's President Dean Debnam noted today: "One poll after another is showing that Virginia will be a close state this fall."

PPP also polled Virginians about this year's Senate race, and found Democrat Mark Warner with an unsurprisingly large 59-28 lead over Republican Jim Gilmore. CQ Politics rates this race between the two former governors Democrat Favored.

Today's Quinnipiac Presidential Swing State Poll, a regular survey of Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio looks particularly gloomy for John McCain. Barack Obama has a statistically significant lead over McCain in each of the states, which are, of the most competitive states, the richest in electoral delegates.

In Florida, Obama enjoys a modest 47 percent to 43 percent lead, buoyed largely by significant leads among women, voters under 35, and African-Americans. This difference is similar to the one found in an American Research Group survey also released today, showing Obama up 49 to 44 percent.

McCain is trailing in Ohio by a 6 point margin (48 to 42 percent). Obama leads by 18 points among voters concerned primarily with the economy, around half of the electorate, and enjoys a significant advantage in favorability ratings.

Of the three, Obama's biggest advantage is in Pennsylvania, 52 to 40 percent, where he leads in almost every demographic.

The American Research Group survey's margin of error is +/- 4 percent. The Quinnipiac surveys have a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent in Florida and Ohio and +/- 2.5 percent in Pennsylvania.

Millions of words have been written about the age gap in voters this year. But a new poll today from Gallup says it's actually the voters in the middle - in their 40's - who could determine the election's outcome.

John McCain and Barack Obama are tied (46-46 percent) among 40-something voters. Not surprisingly, Obama leads McCain among voters younger than 40 and McCain leads Obama among voters 60 and older. Obama has a slight edge among voters in their 50's.

The Gallup pollsters write: "Forty-something voters are a politically interesting group because some of the common political divides in the U.S. electorate are not evident within this particular age group." For example, there is no gender nor educational gap in Obama and McCain supporters in their 40's.

The survey was done June 5-11 and has a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.

Barack Obama is edging closer to John McCain in in North Carolina. A poll released today by the Civitas Institute, a local conservative think tank, finds McCain leading Obama 45-41 percent.

These results, just inside the poll's margin of error of +/- 4, suggest Obama has a shot in a state that has been reliably Republican since 1976. The survey was conducted June 11-13.

Obama polls very well among African-American voters (89 percent), but lacks support from whites (31 percent).

Civitas Institue polls have found Obama's vote percentage in a matchup against McCain has been increasing since February; McCain's lead dropped from 10 points in February to 9 points in April, and then to 5 points in May.

Ohio and other state-by-state matchups.

The consummate swing state is looking very good for Barack Obama, according to Public Policy Polling (PPP). Obama has a strong 50-39 lead over John McCain, well above the poll's 3.5 percent margin of error.

PPP notes this constitutes a "significant change" from their Ohio poll conducted in March, which gave McCain an 8 point lead (49 percent to 41 percent) over Obama, while a Clinton/McCain matchup favored Clinton (45-44).

The new poll, conducted May 17-18, found Obama with equally strong leads among men and women, a four point advantage over McCain with white voters (46-42), and a powerful 54 point lead (75-21) among African-Americans.

Our comparison of Ohio polls in March indicated that PPP's prediction of a 9 point margin of victory for Clinton in the primary was very close to the actual 10 point spread.

Most recent state-by-state matchups.

Barack Obama's lead over John McCain (48 to 42 percent) in today's ABC News/Washington Post poll may not be as significant for Obama as it appears. Here's why:

*Obama is in a virtual tie with McCain for the support of independents. He leads McCain by just one point (44-43 percent) among this critical group of voters.

*Obama did not get a post-Clinton "bounce" - he is leading by about the same amount as one month ago. On May 11, the margin was 7 percentage points (51-44).

*His edge is nowhere near as wide as in "generic perference in local congressional elections," where the Democratic lead over Republicans is 15 points (52-37 percent).

Obama supporters do seem to be much more enthusiastic about their candidate than McCain supporters: 91 percent of them say they are "enthusiastic" or "very enthusiastic" about their candidate, while McCain captured a 73 percent enthusiasm response.

The poll was conducted June 12-15 and has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

It's no surprise that record-high gas prices are hitting people hard. A new ABC News/Washington Post poll notes it may be even worse than you may have suspected.

Seventy-seven percent in the survey called gas prices a financial hardship, and 51 percent say it's a "serious" hardship - up by 14 and 17 points from a month ago to their highest point in polls dating back to 2000.

And people are reacting by cutting back. In last month's survey, 42 percent of respondents said they had reduced driving, the figure was 55 percent in today's survey. While some people in all groups said they had cut back, the impact was greatest in the lowest income households.

ABC says: "Other figures back the trend: Last week the Department of Energy reported a drop in gasoline consumption of 1.3 percent from a year ago. Miles-driven was down early this spring for the first time since 1979."

The telephone poll was conducted June 12-15 and has a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.

Kansas Democrat Jim Slattery, a former House member from Topeka, has pulled within nine points of incumbent Republican Pat Roberts in the Senate race, according to a Rasmussen survey released today. This poll, which shows Roberts ahead 48 percent to 39 percent, marks the first time he has led by less than double digits and the first time fewer than 50% of Kansans have supported the incumbent.

One of the key issues that has already emerged between Barack Obama and John McCain is who would be better for restoring the United States' image in the world.

Both candidates might want to take note of a poll today from The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press which shows a continuing trend of Americans believing that the United States is less respected in the world than it has been in the past.

Pew says: "More than seven-in-ten Americans (71%) say that the United States is less respected by other countries these days, up from 65% in August 2006." While more Democrats say agree with the "loss of respect" sentiment, a majority of independent and Republican voters also agreed.

The researchers say the survey also passed a milestone: "For the first time since Pew began asking this question in 2004, a majority of Americans now sees the loss of international respect for the United States as a major problem. The percentage of Americans saying the loss of international respect is a major problem has risen from 43% in 2005 to 48% in 2006 and 56% currently."

The poll was conducted May 21-23 and has a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.

While latest daily Gallup tracking poll finds that Barack Obama and John McCain are virtually tied (44 to 42 percent), a large margin of Americans believe Obama will win in November.

In a separate poll released today, Gallup says that, by a wide margin (52-41 percent), voters believe Obama will win the Presidency. It wasn't just Democrats predicting this; independent voters also think so, albeit by a smaller pecentage (50-41). Only Republicans didn't go along - 67 percent thought McCain would win.

Interestingly, Gallup notes: "While one might expect younger Americans to be the most idealistic about the chances of the first black nominee for either major party winning the presidency, they are in fact the least likely to believe he will win. Adults aged 18 to 34 are essentially divided between choosing Obama and McCain as the likely winner: 48% predict an Obama win vs. 45% for McCain. By contrast, the majority of Americans 55 and older say Obama will win."

The poll was conducted June 9-12 and has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.

Here's the latest addition to our state-by-state general election match-ups:

• Arkansas: Obama has made a startling comeback against McCain in this state which Republicans have carried every year since 1980 with the exception of the two terms of favorite son Bill Clinton. A month ago, Rasmussen Reports had McCain leading Obama 57 percent to 33 percent in large part because he was getting 38 percent support from Democrats and leading by 24 points among unaffiliated voters. Now, Obama has closed that gap with McCain's margin at 48 percent to 39 percent with 8 percent choosing other and 5 percent undecided in a poll conducted June 12. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama seems to be climbing back in his support among fellow Democrats, counting 69 percent of them although McCain still holds a big lead among unaffiliated voters. Hillary Clinton sentiment here is still strong with 60 percent of Democrats believing she should be Obama's running mate, compared to 42 percent of overall voters in the state. Obama is now viewed favorably by 45 percent of voters and unfavorably by 54 percent, but that's an improvement from the ratio last month which was 38 percent to 61 percent. Twenty-seven percent say McCain is too old to be President while 56 percent say Obama is too inexperienced. Fifty-two percent put priority on bring American troops home from Iraq by the end of the next President's term versus 39 percent who favor winning the war. Sixty-three percent believe it is likely Obama will get them home compared to 33 percent for McCain.

The latest round-up of state-by-state election match-ups adds Oregon and Minnesota, both of which continue to look strong for Barack Obama over John McCain.

• Oregon: Obama leads McCain 46 percent to 38 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll released June 13. Rasmussen says that's down from the 14 point lead Obama had in March, but that McCain's support has remained stalled between 38 percent and 42 percent since then. A SurveyUSA poll conducted in mid-May had Obama ahead 49 percent to 39 percent with a 4.1 percent margin of error. Obama's favorability rating in the Rasmussen poll slipped from 61 percent last month to 55 percent and McCain's dipped slight from 52 percent to 50 percent. Oregonians overall oppose putting Hillary Clinton on Obama's ticket by 53 percent to 27 percent, and even Democrats are pretty split about it, with 43 percent in favor and 38 percent against. Oregon has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1988.

CNN/Opinion Research has spun out yet some more numbers from its June 4-5 poll showing Barack Obama and John McCain in a statistical tie. The latest installment says the Republicans have an enthusiasm problem. While 63 percent of Democrats are very or extremely enthusiastic about voting this year while only 37 percent of Republicans feel that way and 36 percent say they are not enthusiastic. Fifty-three percent of those polled predict Obama will win compared to 43 percent for McCain.

Fifty-four percent said they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their congressional district compared to 44 percent who said they'd back the Republican.

Forty-two percent believe Obama's race will make it difficult for him to get elected while 57 percent disagree, with more Democrats than Republicans holding that view.

Our latest round-up of Senate race polls includes a wild one from Minnesota where Republican Norm Coleman and Democrat Al Franken are running neck-and-neck with ... former Gov. Jesse Ventura lurking on the sidelines. And, in Oregon, Republican Gordon Smith in the lead, but by less than a comfortable margin for an incumbent. Plus, two safe Democrats in Iowa and Michigan.

• Minnesota: First-termer Coleman, leads Franken by a bare 48 percent to 45 percent with 4 percent preferring other and 4 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted June 11. But should Ventura jump into the race as an independent, as he hinted on CNN and Minnesota Public Radio, Coleman would lead Franken 39 percent to 32 percent with Ventura drawing 24 percent. Coleman's favorable vs. unfavorable figure is 51 percent to 45 percent, Franken's is 46 percent against 50 percent, and Ventura's is 36 percent compared to 62 percent. Sixty percent say Ventura shouldn't run. Sixty-two percent of voters are attuned to the issue of Franken's controversial writings earlier in his career. Forty-five percent said they've had no impact on their opinion of him, while 38 percent said they'd make it less likely that they'd vote for the former Saturday Night Live comedian. Eleven percent, though, must be old Franken fans because they say his past utterances would make it more likely they'd vote for him. In its May 22 poll, Rasmussen had Coleman 47 percent to 45 percent with a 4.5 percen