Poll Tracker

Previously reported:

• Florida: McCain leads Obama 45 percent to 41 percent, with a 2.6 percent margin of error, in a Quinnipiac University poll conducted May 13-20. Clinton leads McCain 48 percent to 41 percent. McCain leads Obama among men voters 48 percent to 39 and they run evenly among women. Clinton would have a 17 point lead over McCain among women and run closer to him among men. Democrats split at 41 percent each in their preference for Obama or Clinton, but ominously for Obama, Clinton supporters say they would back him against McCain by only a 43 percent to 36 percent margin. Floridians split on whether they trust McCain or Obama more to handle the economy, they trust McCain more on Iraq by 10 points and on terrorism by 24 points. Obama bests McCain on health care by 13 points. In a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 19, McCain led Obama 50 percent to 40 percent with 6 percent preferring "other" than 3 percent undecided. Clinton led McCain 47 percent to 41 percent.

  • Ohio: McCain leads Obama 44 percent to 40 percent, with a 2.8 percent margin of error, in a Quinnipiac University poll conducted May 13-20. Clinton leads McCain 48 percent to 41 percent. McCain leads Obama among men voters 47 percent to 39 percent, while Obama has a bare 42 percent to 40 percent advantage among women. By contrast, Clinton runs evenly with McCain among men and leads him by 16 points among women voters. Clinton backers say they would support Obama over McCain by only a 50 percent to 26 percent margin. Voters trust Obama more than McCain by 6 points on the economy and McCain by 14 percent over Obama on Iraq. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 15 had Obama locked with McCain at 45 percent to 44 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. If Clinton were to stage a miracle and become the nominee, she'd be leading McCain 50 percent to 43 percent.

  • Pennsylvania:Obama leads McCain 46 percent to 40 percent with a 2.4 percent margin of error, in a Quinnipiac University poll conducted May 13-20. Clinton is ahead 50 percent to 37 percent. McCain and Obama split men voters while Obama leads McCain by 12 points among women. Clinton would also run close to McCain among men but has a 26 point advantage among women. Democrats who back Clinton say they would support Obama over McCain by only a 51 percent to 32 percent margin. They trust Obama more on the economy by 11 points and favor McCain on Iraq by 6 points. In a SurveyUSA poll) conducted May 16-18,Obama has a 48 percent to 40 percent lead over McCain with 12 percent undecided.

  • Virginia: Obama is leading McCain 49 percent to 42 percent with 9 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted May 16-18. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. The two run closely among men but Obama has a 11 point edge among women voters. Obama maintains a big lead over McCain among voters under 34 just as McCain bests Obama among voters over 65. The rest are relatively evenly divided. McCain has a 17 point lead among whites who make up 72 percent of the sample, while Obama leads 92 percent to 7 percent among black voters who make up 18 percent. Obama has a 4 point lead among independents. Rasmussen Reports had McCain ahead of Obama 47 percent to 44 percent in a poll conducted May 8. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. A month earlier, McCain had led Obama by 11.

  • Colorado:Obama leads McCain 48 percent to 42 percent with 5 percent undecided and 5 percent preferring someone else, in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 19. The two were in a statistical dead heat in Rasmussen's last poll conducted mid-April. If Hillary Clinton were the Democratic nominee, McCain would be leading her 47 percent to 44 percent with 7 percent preferring other. The margin of error is 4 points. Obama is viewed favorably by 55 percent of voters, McCain by 51 percent and Clinton by 44 percent. Forty-one percent of voters name the economy as the top issue with Iraq second at 21 percent. Fifty-four percent of voters favor the goal of getting the troops home from Iraq before the end of the next President's term, compared to 39 percent who want to win it. Forty-four percent of voters say that if McCain is president he is very or somewhat likely to win the war in Iraq compared to 20 percent who say that of Obama. Thirty-five percent believe that it is very or somewhat likely that McCain as President would have American troops out of Iraq by the end of his first term, but 60 percent believe Obama would bring them home in that timeframe.

  • New Mexico: McCain and Obama run dead even at 44 percent each with 12 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted May 16-18. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. McCain has a big 52 percent to 37 percent lead among white voters (49 percent of the sample) while Obama leads 51 percent to 40 percent among Hispanic voters (39 percent of the sample). McCain has more solid support among Republicans than Obama does among Democrats while McCain polls 13 points better than Obama among independents. In mid-April, McCain led Obama in this poll by 50 percent to 44 percent.

  • Minnesota: A poll for the Minneapolis Star Tribune conducted May 12-15 shows Barack Obama ahead of John McCain 51 percent to 38 percent and Clinton leading McCain 49 percent to 40 percent. The margin of error is 3.6 percent. The survey said that none of the three have majority support among crucial independent voters. The Democrats have won in every presidential election in the state since 1976.

  • Nebraska: McCain leads Obama 50 percent to 39 percent with 5 percent undecided and 6 percent preferring "other," in a survey conducted May 15 by Rasmussen Reports. McCain leads Clinton 57 percent to 34 percent. McCain is viewed favorably by 61 percent of voters compared to 37 percent; Obama is viewed Unfavorably by 50 percent compared to 49 percent; and Clinton is viewed unfavorably by 59 percent compared to 39 percent.

  • Alaska: McCain leads Obama 51 percent to 41 percent with 8 percent undecided and preferring someone else, in a Rasmussen survey conducted May 14. He leads Clinton 53 percent to 36 percent. McCain is viewed favorably by 57 percent of voters compared to 42 percent; Obama is viewed favorably by 52 percent compared to 46 percent; and, Clinton is viewed negatively by 58 percent to 40 percent.

  • Iowa: Barack Obama leads John McCain 44 percent to 42 percent with 8 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent not sure in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 13. McCain edges Clinton 45 percent to 42 percent with 9 percent preferring other and 4 percent not sure. The figures for Obama and McCain haven't shown much movement since February. Fifty-three percent of voters view Obama favorably compared to 51 percent for McCain, but that represents a 7 point drop for the Republican. Margin of error is 4.5 percent.

  • Arkansas: Rasmussen Reports says in a survey conducted May 12 McCain leads Obama 53 percent to 37 percent, while Clinton bests McCain 53 percent to 39 percent in the state where she was First Lady. McCain's margin over Obama is due to 92 percent support among fellow Republicans, 38 percent support from Democrats and 24 percent from unaffiliated voters. Obama's favorability rating here is only 38 percent. McCain's is 57 percent and Clinton's is 60 percent. Margin of error is 4.5 percent.

  • Washington state: Obama leads McCain 51 percent to 40 percent in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 12, compared to the 5 point lead he held in the previous poll. Obama's favorability rating is 57 percent, while McCain's is 49 percent - which, as in Iowa, is a 7 point drop for him. A SurveyUSA poll conducted May 12 had Obama ahead 54 to 42 percent with a 3.9 percent margin of error. Clinton leads McCain by 49 percent to 45 percent. Obama runs far ahead of McCain on the issues of the economy, environment, health care and Iraq while McCain leads Obama by a wide margin on the issues of terrorism and immigration. Margin of error is 4.5 percent.

  • North Carolina:The race between Obama and McCain is also within the margin of error here in a Rasmussen poll conducted May 8, with McCain leading Obama 48 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain leads Clinton 43 percent to 40 percent with a whopping 14 percent choosing "other." Obama does best among voters making less than $20,000 a year or more than $75,000 while McCain does best among middle-income voters. McCain is viewed favorably by 53 percent of voters while Obama's score is 51 percent. Feelings run stronger in both directions about Obama: 37 percent have a very favorable opinion of him while 30 percent have a very unfavorable opinion, compared to 18 percent and 23 percent respectively for McCain. Clinton's favorable vote is 46 percent. A May 8-9 survey by Public Policy Polling shows McCain ahead by a bigger margin, though not a lead that's out of reach. McCain leads Obama 49 percent to 42 percent and Clinton by 46 percent to 38 percent with a 4 percent margin of error.

  • Michigan: A May 7 survey by Rasmussen Reports shows a toss-up race no matter which Democrat runs against John McCain. McCain has 45 percent to Barack Obama's 44 percent with 6 percent saying they'd vote for a third-party candidate and 5 percent undecided. Hillary Clinton ties with McCain at 44 percent with 9 percent saying they'd vote for a third-party candidate and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. As far as Obama, the likely nominee, and McCain go, this poll has showed a close race each month since February. McCain is viewed favorably by 54 percent of the state's voters, Obama by 50 percent and Clinton by 49 percent.

  • Oregon: Obama leads McCain in a general election match-up for Oregon by 52 percent to 38 percent while Clinton is ahead by 46 percent to 40 percent in a May 7 survey conducted by Rasmussen Reports.) The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama's margin represents a gain of 8 points since March in this poll and part of the reason is that McCain gets the backing of only 68 percent of voters in his own party. Obama's favorability rating is 61 percent, McCain's is 52 percent and Clinton's is 47 percent. In mid-April, SurveyUSA had Obama ahead 51 percent to 42 percent while Clinton ran statistically even with McCain.

  • Missouri: McCain runs ahead of Obama 47 percent to 41 percent and Hillary Clinton by 45 percent to 43 percent in this swing state, according to a Rasmussen reports survey conducted May 6. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. In late March, Rasmussen had McCain over Obama 53 percent to 38 percent and ahead of Clinton 50 percent to 41 percent. McCain's favorability rating is 55 percent, Obama's is 46 percent and Clinton's is 45 percent. In mid-April, SurveyUSA said Clinton was leading McCain 47 percent to 46 percent and McCain was leading Obama by 50 percent to 42 percent, with a margin of error of 4.3 percent.

  • Georgia: McCain leads Barack Obama 53 percent to 39 percent and Hillary Clinton by 48 percent to 37 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 6. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain holds big leads among men voters against either Democrat. McCain is viewed favorably by 59 percent of voters, down 5 points since March. Obama is viewed favorably by 43 percent and Clinton by 39 percent.

  • Wisconsin: McCain holds 47 percent to 43 percent leads over either Clinton or Obama, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 5. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain and Obama were a toss-up in Rasmussen's March poll while McCain led Clinton by 11 points. A SurveyUSA poll conducted April 11-13 had McCain and Clinton tied and Obama ahead by 3 points, within the margin of error. McCain is viewed favorably by 58 percent of voters and unfavorably by 40 percent; Obama has 51 percent favorable, 48 percent unfavorable; and, Clinton is viewed unfavorably by 52 percent compared to the 46 percent who have positive views of her.

  • Indiana: Although this is a solid "red" state in presidential elections, a poll by the Mike Downs Center on Indiana Politics show both Clinton and Obama are competitive with McCain. She leads 48 percent to 45 percent and Obama leads 48 percent to 47 percent. The margin of error is 2.8 percent.

  • Ohio: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1173&What=&strArea=;&strTime=120 Clinton leads McCain 48 percent to 38 percent, while McCain is ahead of Obama by 43 percent to 42 percent. The margin of error is 2.9 percent. Clinton leads McCain among white working class voters 46 percent to 40 percent while McCain leads Obama 54 percent to 34 percent. The poll was conducted April 23-29.

  • New Jersey: Both Obama and Clinton are comfortably ahead of McCain in a New Jersey general election match-up, but a [Monmouth University/Gannett poll] ound suggestions of what it described as "buyers' remorse" in the 10-point victory the state's Democrats gave Clinton in its Feb. 5 primary. Obama leads John McCain by 56 percent to 32 percent and Clinton is ahead by 52 percent to 38 percent. But now, Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they favor Obama over Clinton by 45 percent to 38 percent. Obama's favorability ratings is 58 percent to 27 percent, Clinton's is 46 percent to 43 percent and McCain comes out on the negative side with 45 percent who view him unfavorably compared to 39 percent.

  • Massachusetts: No surprise here. Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are way ahead of John McCain, with Clinton leading 55 percent to 36 percent and Obama by 51 percent to 39 percent, in a Rasmussen Reports poll released April 25. Among men voters, the match-ups are close, but among women the Democrats have wide leads. Obama's favorability rating is 59 percent, Clinton's is 58 percent, and McCain's is 57 percent. Forty-nine percent say the economy is the top issue compared to 24 percent who cite Iraq. Massachusetts voters do not give much of a boost to their onetime favorite son Mitt Romney as a potential McCain running mate. Forty three percent don't think McCain should choose Romney while 34 percent say they do. In a SurveyUSA poll conducted April 11-13 linton runs ahead of McCain 56 percent to 41 percent, while Obama is in a statistical dead heat with McCain, leading him 48 percent to 46 percent. The margin of error is 4.2 percent. On Iraq, named as the top issue by 18 percent, both Democrats lead McCain by more than 40 points.

  • Indiana: McCain leads Obama 51 percent to 43 percent and Clinton by 52 percent to 41 percent, according to a Research 2000 poll conducted. April 21-24. An Indianapolis Star-WTHR poll conducted April 20-23 had Obama ahead of McCain 49 percent to 41 percent and Clinton even with him at 46 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. The Boston Globe notes today that Indiana Democrats have not delivered their state in a general election since 1964.

  • Nevada: McCain leads both Clinton and Obama in a general election match-up in Nevada, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted April 21. McCain is ahead of Obama 48 percent to 43 percent and Clinton by 49 percent to 38 percent. The margin of error is 4 percent. Last month, Obama led McCain by four and the race with Clinton was a dead heat.

  • New York: Clinton leads McCain in her homestate by a modest 46 to 42 percent while Obama has a 45 percent to 40 percent lead, according to a Siena College poll conducted April 13-16. the margin of error is 3.9 percent. When Siena conducted its last poll in February, each Democrat led McCain by 7 points. But perhaps the big headline is that Clinton now has the highest unfavorable rating that she ever recorded in this poll. Forty eight percent of New Yorkers see her positively against 46 percent who do not. Obama's favorability rating is 54 percent to 35 percent and McCain;s is 54 percent to 35 percent. Siena's Stephen Greenberg says, "With a little more than six months until Election Day, New York is looking more 'purple' than 'blue' these days, since neither Clinton or Obama gets 50 percent of the vote against McCain, and both Democrats have small and shrinking leads." SurveyUSA said in an April 11-13 New York poll that Clinton leads McCain 59 percent to 35 percent in her home state, while Obama leads 52 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. A Marist Poll conducted April 3-4 said if the election were held today McCain would run "surprisingly close" in New York to either Democrat. Clinton polls 48 percent to 46 percent against McCain, while McCain leads Obama 48 percent to 46 percent.

  • Pennsylvania: McCain is leading both Democrat, according to a Strategic Vision poll conducted April 18-20. He leads Clinton 46 percent to 42 percent with 12 percent undecided and Obama by 48 percent to 40 percent, also with 12 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points.

This set of polls was conducted by SurveyUSA April 11-13:

• Kansas: It's all McCain here. He leads Clinton 57 percent to 36 percent and Obama by 54 percent to 37 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. There's no gender gap because McCain has big leads among both men and women, and the only age group in which there is much of a difference is the 18-to34s - where McCain has a 21 percent margin over Clinton. McCain has big leads over each Democrat among white voters. Independents overwhelmingly favor him over either. Among the 36 percent of voters who said the economy was the top issue, McCain leads both Democrats and, unlike many of the other states in this round-up, among the 14 percent who name Iraq as the top issue, he runs pretty evenly with both Democrats. Eleven percent of voters cited immigration as the top issue and they favor McCain by margins of 4-to-1 or more.

• Alabama: McCain leads Clinton 60 percent to 34 percent and Obama by 64 percent to 32 percent. The margin of error is 4.2 percent. He leads in all gender and age groups by large margins. Among the 73 percent of voters in the sample who are white, McCain leads Clinton 72 percent to 23 percent and Obama by 80 percent to 15 percent. Among the 24 percent who are black, Clinton leads McCain 65 percent to 25 percent and Obama leads him by 84 percent to 15 percent. Independents favor McCain over each Democrat by about 3-to-1. He has leads of 20 points or more over Obama and Clinton among the 35 percent of voters who name the economy as the top issue. The second top issue (12 percent) was fighting terrorism, and he had identical 87 percent to 13 percent leads over both Democrats. For the 11 percent who chose Iraq, Clinton led McCain by 9 points and Obama edged him by 4 points. Eleven percent also named immigration, and there, McCain led Obama 97 percent to 3 percent and Clinton by 83 percent to 15 percent. Rasmussen Reports had McCain leading Obama by 55 percent to 37 percent and Clinton by 51 percent to 40 percent in a survey conducted April 2.

• Kentucky: A striking gap between how Clinton and Obama would fare against McCain. McCain has a statistically insignificant 48 percent to 46 percent lead over Clinton, but a 63 percent to 29 percent lead over Obama. The biggest gender number is the 71 percent to 23 percent edge McCain has over Obama among men voters. McCain also trounces Obama in every age group. He has a 41 point lead over Obama among white voters compared to a 7 percent lead over Clinton. Forty-three percent of Kentuckians name the economy as the top issue and McCain is way ahead of Obama on this one. Iraq is the one issue where Obama has any traction against McCain. Of the 13 percent who said this was the top issue, Obama led McCain 55 percent to 40 percent while Clinton led 49 percent to 35 percent.

Here are state-by-state polls posted before the avalanche from SurveyUSA:

• Louisiana: McCain leads Barack Obama 52 percent to 41 percent and Hillary Clinton by 58 percent to 36 percent in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted April 9. McCain is viewed favorably by 64 percent of voters, Obama by 53 percent and Clinton by 37 percent.

• Alaska: McCain leads Clinton by 25 points and Obama by 48 percent to 43 percent, with a 4.5 percent margin of error, in a poll conducted April 7. McCain's favorable rating is 63 percent, Obama's is 55 percent and Clinton's is 35 percent.

• Montana: McCain leads Obama by 48 percent to 43 percent, and is way ahead of Clinton, 54 percent to 36 percent, according to a poll conducted April 6. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Rasmussen was impressed by Obama's showing given George W. Bush's 25 point victory in 2004. McCain is viewed favorably by 56 percent of voters, Obama by 54 percent and Clinton by 42 percent.

• Connecticut: Obama has a 52 percent to 35 percent lead over McCain in Connecticut, while Clinton leads McCain by only 45 percent to 42 percent, according to a [Quinnipiac University poll]conducted March 19-24. The margin of error is 2.4 percent. These results are similar to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted in mid-March. A good deal of Obama's strength comes from independents who favor him 48 percent to 35 percent and voters under 45 who back him by 63 percent to 35 percent. Obama also has a 9 point lead among white voters. - The interesting thing about this poll is the extent to which it mirrors what the national polls are saying about the challenges facing Clinton. Reflecting the national findings of an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released yesterday, Clinton suffers in Connecticut from high negatives, with 47 percent of voters viewing her unfavorably to 46 percent who view her favorably. Obama's favorability rating is 59 to 24 percent and McCain's is 52 percent to 31 percent. Democrats say Obama would be a good president by a 56 percent to 28 percent margin with 31 percent of his supporters citing his fresh ideas and 19 percent citing his intelligence. Democrats say Clinton would be a good president by a 49 percent to 43 percent with 48 percent of her supporters pointing to her experience and 27 percent to her intelligence. But again, this poll mirrors a finding about Clinton that has shown up in national polls as well. Of her critics, 25 percent say she is dishonest. USAToday/Gallup had did a March 14-16 survey in which 44 percent considered her honest and trustworthy while 53 percent did not.

• Nevada: Obama and Clinton have small but statistically insignificant leads over McCain, according to a Rasmussen Reports conducted March 19. Obama leads 45 percent to 41 percent while Clinton is ahead 44 percent to 43 percent, both within a 4.5 percent margin of error. In mid-February, Obama had led 50 percent to 38 percent, while McCain led Clinton 49 percent to 40 percent, which is reflective of the slide Obama has taken in state and national polls during March. Rasmussen notes that Nevada has voted with the winner in the last seven elections, and in the last four, the winning margin was no larger than 4 points. Thirty-nine percent of Nevadans say the economy is the top issue and only 17 percent of them rate it as good or excellent.

• Kansas:McCain leads Clinton 55 percent to 36 percent and Obama by 51 percent to 39 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. McCain beats Clinton in all age groups and lags Obama only among voters under 34. He has leads each Democrat by more than 20 points among white voters who made up 87 percent of the sample. More than half of Kansans say they attend religious services regular and McCain leads by 2-to-1 among them. Twenty-seven percent describe themselves as Evangelicals and, there, McCain's leads are in the 3-to-1 range. Thirty-six percent of voters cite the economy as the top issue and, in this state, McCain leads Clinton 54 percent to 38 percent and Obama by roughly the same amount as the poll's margin of error. Among the 12 percent of voters most concerned about Iraq, Clinton and Obama lead McCain but by less than in some other states (an 11 point edge for Clinton and 9 points for Obama). Immigration was cited by 11 percent and McCain's leads are 3-to-1. His lead on fighting terrorism among the 7 percent of voters who placed that first is 76 percent to 22 percent over Clinton and 87 percent to 11 percent over Obama.

• Kentucky: McCain blows away Obama by a 2-to-1 margin (64 percent to 28 percent) and leads Clinton 53 percent to 43 percent in the quest for Kentucky's 8 electoral votes. This SurveyUSA poll was also conducted March 14-16 and the margin of error is 4.3 percent. Here, McCain trails Clinton among voters under 34, but wins in all other age groups by significant margins. He has better than 2-to-1 leads over Obama in every age group. Thirty-nine percent of voters chose the economy as the top issue and they favored McCain by 54 percent to 43 percent over Clinton, and by the wide margin over Obama that he enjoys in almost every category of this poll. Iraq was cited as the top issue by 14 percent and they heavily favored McCain over either Democrat and, as in Missouri, the same was true on the issue of terrorism, which was named by 11 percent. The actual poll figure on terrorism for McCain vs. Obama was 93 percent to 3 percent.

• Tennessee: McCain leads Obama 50 percent to 36 percent, says a Middle Tennessee State University poll conducted Feb. 11-23.. His margin over Clinton is smaller, 45 percent to 38 percent. The poll says that figure applies to Tennessee adults. When "likely voters" are asked, the margin over Obama is 53 percent to 37 percent. Mike Huckabee also leads Obama or Clinton. The poll says appears to indicate that the margin of error is as high as 8 percent.