LA Times/Bloomberg Poll: Both Dems Leading McCain

May 10, 2008 1:22 PM | | Comments (0)

Although there is much speculation about how the continuing Democratic nomination fight is hurting its general election chances (see today’s Chicago Tribune story), a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll conducted May 1-8 has either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton ahead of John McCain. Clinton leads McCain 47 percent to 38 percent with 15 percent undecided and Obama is ahead 46 percent to 40 percent with 14 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 percent. In both cases, the Obama and Clinton margins have increased compared to this poll’s findings in January and February.

However, these are still figures that show a competitive race and some of the reasons for it are that McCain is showing some strength with groups that normally are a key element of the Democratic candidates – older, white voters where Clinton has been strong, and independents where Obama has flourished.

Today's Gallup daily tracking poll conducted May 5-9 has Clinton over McCain 48 percent to 44 percent and Obama statistically tied with him at 46 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error is 2 points. In the Democratic race, Gallup's May 7-9 data has Obama over Clinton 49 percent to 44 percent with a 3 point margin of error. That breaks a streak of 16 days where the two were statistically tied.

Some toplines of the poll:

  • Fifty-seven percent of Democrats said they would vote for either Clinton or Obama against McCain, 12 percent said they’d vote only Democratic only if the nominee was Clinton and 6 percent said they’d stick with the party only if it was Obama at the top of the ticket.

  • Independents are divided between Obama and McCain, but McCain leads Clinton by 11 points among them.

  • About one-fifth of moderate Republicans would vote for Clinton in the general election and 14 percent would back Obama.

  • With all the attention lately on white voters, the poll found that McCain’s edge over Obama is only 45 percent to 41 percent, while he would split that vote with Clinton.

  • Obama and Clinton would both have double-digit leads over McCain among women voters, while McCain leads among white voters over Clinton and Obama by 8 points and 3 points respectively.

  • The 56 percent of voters who consider the economy the top issue in the campaign favor Clinton over McCain by 10 points and Obama over the Republican by 13 points. The 34 percent who name Iraq favor both Democrats by 30 points or more over McCain. However, for the 11 percent most concerned about immigration, McCain clobbers both Democrats - 59 percent to 21 percent over Clinton and 73 percent to 16 percent over Obama.

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