Our state-by-state round-up of polls on this year's Senate races so far supports the view that the Republicans face a challenging year. Some GOP incumbents are clearly showing vulnerabilities and others, while ahead, are looking at races that seem more competitive than a couple of months ago.
Be sure to read our Election 2008 overview of the battle for the Senate.
Maine: Republican Sen. Susan Collins still has a 52 percent to 42 percent lead over Democratic challenger Tom Allen, although that is down from the 16 point advantage she had a month ago, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 14. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Collins is viewed favorably by 70 percent of voters compared to 29 percent with a negative view, and Allen is viewed favorably by 58 percent compared to 35 percent. Collins has the backing of 74 percent of conservatives, 55 percent of moderates and 27 percent of liberals. Allen draws on the support of 71 percent of liberal voters, 36 percent of moderates and 20 percent of conservatives.
Kansas: Two-term Republican Sen. Pat Roberts has a 50 percent to 42 percent lead over his Demo critic challenger, Rep. Jim Slattery. Roberts had looked like a runaway favorite for re-election as Democrats scrambled to find a credible challenger, but they appear to have had at least some success by Slattery's decision to get into the race. Roberts is viewed favorably by 60 percent of voters compared to 34 percent who have negative views, while Slattery's numbers are 46 percent favorable to 38 percent unfavorable with 17 percent not sure. Both are tied at 46 percent for the support of moderate voters.
Previously reported polls:
Alaska: A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 14 shows Alaska's Ted Stevens trailing Democrat Mark Begich by 2 points, with the Anchorage mayor leading the 6-term senator 47 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Nearly a quarter of voters who plan to vote for John McCain, say they will back Begich for Senate. Stevens has been a perennial shoo-in, winning his last election with 78 percent of the vote. But since then, he has been caught up in a federal corruption investigation and the number of voters who view him unfavorably stands at 53 percent to 46 percent who have a positive view. Voters view Begich favorably by a 54 percent to 38 percent margin.
New Mexico: If the sentiment of New Mexico voters today holds up until November, the Democratic party may pick up another Senate seat. In a SurveyUSA poll of likely New Mexican voters, Democrat Tom Udall would easily defeat either Republican running for the seat, Heather Wilson (61-35 percent) or Steven Pearce (60-36 percent). The margin of error was +/- 2.3 percent. Wilson and Pearce are in a tight race for the Republican nomination, which is currently held by retiring Sen. Pete V. Domenici. The poll shows them almost tied, with Pearce having the slight edge over Wilson (49-46 percent). The primary is June 3. The margin of error on the Republican-only poll was +/- 4.8 percent. The poll was conducted May 12-14.
North Carolina: Sen. Elizabeth Dole may be hearing foot steps behind her as two polls show her Democratic challenger, Kay Hagan, a five term member of the state senate, closing the gap between them. Public Policy Polling has Dole ahead by 48 percent to 43 percent compared to the 17 point lead she had in February. The survey was conducted May 8-9 and has a margin of error of 4 percent. Rasmussen Reports yesterday released a poll conducted May 8 that showed Hagan ahead of Dole, although by a statistically insignificant 48 percent to 47 percent. A month earlier, Dole had a 13 point lead in this poll. Hagan scored a runaway victory in the state's May 6 primary for the right to challenge Dole, and PPP says the visibility she built up during that campaign may have helped. Now it remains to be seen if she can raise the $10 million she says she needs to compete with Dole. As of now, CQ Politics rates the race as "Republican favored" although we note that Dole is vulnerable, in part because her ties to President Bush. Rasmussen noted that Hagan has tried hard to make that connection by noting that Dole votes with Bush 92 percent of the time.
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