This posting has been corrected to include additional polls of Ohio, New Hampshire and New Mexico that show different results than some of the other polls originally cited. We'd like to thank our readers for pointing out the omissions

With too much time on our hands, we decided to sift through Poll Tracker's round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups to see what the polls were saying about states where George Bush or John Kerry won by 5 points or less in 2004. There were 11 of them. This is an iffy exercise because polls conducted in April and May are a long way off from November. And in Michigan, fully one-fifth of voters told pollsters they were undecided. Finally, these are polls conducted before the Democratic race is decided, and that injects a whole set of dynamics of its own.

We'll just list here the latest polls we found in these closely contested states from four years ago, because some of the polls conflict, making it impossible to put these states in one column or the other.

Here are our latest additions to CQ Politics state-by-state general election match-ups:

Wisconsin: Barack Obama leads John McCain 48 percent to 42 percent with 10 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted May 16-18. the margin of error is 4.1 percent. SurveyUSA did not poll on Hillary Clinton. A mid-April SurveyUSA poll had Mccain and Obama in a statistical tie. The two are within the margin of error of each other among men voters and Obama has an 8 point lead among women. They are also within the margin of error among white voters who make up 90 percent of the sample. Obama has a big 53 percent to 36 percent advantage among independents who make up 29 percent of the sample. A May 5 poll by Rasmussen Reports had McCain ahead of either Obama or Clinton by 47 percent to 43 percent with a 4.5 percent margin of error.

No, this is not about the game show of the '50s and '60s that put Johnny Carson on the map. Rasmussen Reports asked voters a series of questions in a survey conducted May 28-29 about who they trusted more on particular issues, John McCain or Barack Obama. The margin of error is 3.5 percent.

Here are the results:

• Economic issues: McCain over Obama by 47 percent to 41 percent with 12 percent undecided.
• National Security: McCain over Obama 56 percent to 31 percent with 16 percent undecided.
• Iraq: McCain over Obama 49 percent to 37 percent with 13 percent undecided.
• Reducing Government Corruption: Obama over McCain by 43 percent to 39 percent with 17 percent undecided.
• Taxes: McCain over Obama by 44 percent to 38 percent with 18 percent undecided.

Now, just for the helluva it ... Here's Johnny!!!!!!

In Mississippi, one Republicans is safe and the other may be sorry. Thad Cochran, seeking a sixth term, is way out in front, but Roger Wicker, appointed to fill out the term of retired Sen. Trent Lott, faces a tough race to keep his seat.

Cochran leads former state legislator Erik Fleming 58 percent to 35 percent in a poll conducted May 27. Fleming lost to Lott in 2006 by 64 percent to 35 percent. Cochran is viewed favorably by 64 percent of voters as opposed to 24 percent who have a negative view, while Fleming is viewed favorably by 37 percent and unfavorably by 42 percent.

However, Wicker is in a dead heat with former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove. Musgrove leads 47 percent to 46 percent with 2 percent professing other and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent in this poll, also conducted by Rasmussen on May 27. Wicker is viewed favorably by 49 percent of voters and unfavorably by 32 percent, while and Musgrove is also viewed favorably by 49 percent with 42 percent viewing him unfavorably. However, Musgrove is viewed very unfavorably by 22 percent compared to 10 percent who have the same strong view on Wicker.

Here are our latest additions to CQ Politics state-by-state general election match-ups:

• New York: Barack Obama leads John McCain 52 percent to 33 percent while Hillary Clinton leads him 59 percent to 29 percent according to a Rasmussen Reports poll released May 29. However, Rasmussen's headline is that Clinton's fellow New Yorkers feel it's time for her to drop out by a 50 percent to 43 percent margin. Just to keep stirring the pot, 52 percent of New York Republicans want her to keep going. Obama now has a higher favorability rating than Clinton at 62 percent compared to her 55 percent. Sixty-five percent of New Yorkers place more importance on bringing American troops home from Iraq in the next four years compared to 30 percent who feel that winning the war is more important. Forty percent feel victory is likely under McCain, while 20 percent believe that of Obama. On the flip side, 53 percent believe it is likely that Obama would get the troops home before the end of his first term compared to 34 percent for McCain. In a Siena College poll conducted April 13-16, Clinton had the highest unfavorable rating that she ever recorded in this poll. Forty eight percent of New Yorkers saw her positively against 46 percent who did not. Obama's favorability rating ws 54 percent to 35 percent and McCain's was 54 percent to 35 percent. In that poll, both Clinton and Obama led McCain, but both were under 50 percent.

• Kansas:McCain leads Obama 49 percent to 39 percent with 10 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted May 16-18. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. The biggest gender gap is with men voters where McCain leads Obama by 18 points. He leads Obama by 20 points among white voters. Independents prefer Obama by 7 points. In the mid-April SurveyUSA poll, http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=6c848613-8771-4188-9d0c-e46f4e873d4d McCain led Obama by 54 percent to 37 percent with a 4.4 percent margin of error.

Barack Obama is running about even in a general election match-up with John McCain in a Pew Research poll after holding modest leads over McCain in Pew's previous three polls. The survey was conducted May 21-25 and has a 3 point margin of error. In the Democratic contest, Obama is comfortably ahead of Hillary Clinton by 54 percent to 41 percent. Pew says "the tightening general election matchup between Obama and McCain shows some sullying of Obama's personal image over the past three months" although unfavorable views of McCain have risen as well.

Part of Obama's weakness against McCain stems from his less-than-solid grip at the moment among frustrated Clinton supporters, just 46 percent of whom say they will back Obama if he is the nominee, according to the poll. That's down 12 points from March. Obama has also lost ground among women (reflecting the same finding as a recent Gallup survey) where he is down 13 points among white women compared to March and among independents where his support is at 49 percent compared to 62 percent in late February. Most of McCain's image decline is due to the increasing polarization among voters with 72 percent of Democrats now holding negative views of him compared to the beginning of the year when their opinions of him were split.

How do most Americans regard the media coverage of each of the candidates? There are two different assessments out today, one from Gallup and the other from a joint study by Pew's Project for Excellence in Journalism and Harvard's Joan Shorenstein Center. Gallups' findings suggest that Hillary Clinton got the harder ride in the press, while the Pew-Harvard study concludes that Obama and Clinton have fared about equally.

Clinton, of course, has raised the soft-on-Obama issue several times, most famously in their Feb. 26 debate in Ohio where she cracked, "If anybody saw 'Saturday Night Live, maybe we should ask Barack if he's comfortable and needs another pillow." At the time, the Project for Excellence in Journalism described at as an effort "to work the refs" - namely, the press.

Here's the latest addition to our round-up of polls on this year's Senate races. Republicans are facing a wave of woes, but Democrat Max Baucus has some blessings to count. Be sure to read our Election 2008 overview of the battle for the Senate. Also, check out our Senate "Races to Watch" chart.

Alabama:Two-term Republican Sen. Jeff Sessions leads Democrat Vivian Davis Figures by 62 percent to 29 percent in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 27. That's a 12 point jump over his lead last month. Sessions is viewed favorably by 72 percent of voters compared to 19 percent who see him in a negative light, while Figures has a 33 percent positive rating compared to 42 percent who see her unfavorably.

Here are our latest additions to CQ Politics state-by-state general election match-ups:

Alabama: John McCain leads Barack Obama by 60 percent to 32 percent and Hillary Clinton by 54 percent to 34 percent in a Rasmussen reports poll conducted May 27. McCain is regarded favorably by 62 percent of voters compared to 34 percent, Obama is regarded unfavorably by 61 percent compared to 36 percent who see him favorably, and Clinton's unfavorability rating is 54 percent compared to 42 percent who see her in a positive light. Half of the voters see the economy as the top election issue. Asked whether voters' top priority was winning in Iraq or bring American troops home by the end of the next President's first term, 51 percent answered "winning the war" and 43 percent favored getting the troops home. Sixty-three percent of voters believe it is likely the U.S. will win the war under McCain compared to 23 percent who believed that of Obama. Forty-nine percent believe American troops were likely to return home by the end of a McCain first term compared to 52 percent for Obama. A SurveyUSA poll conducted mid-April had McCain leading Clinton 60 percent to 34 percent and Obama by 64 percent to 32 percent.

Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama by 51 percent to 38 percent with 8 percent saying they'd vote for neither and 3 per cent undecided, according to a poll conducted for the newspaper El Vocero and Univision. If Puerto Rican voters were allowed to cast ballots in the general election, they'd vote for the Democrat over John McCain by 72 percent to 10 percent. Clinton was regarded favorably by 52 percent of voters compared to 34 percent who saw her unfavorably, while Obama was seen favorably by 42 percent and unfavorably by 44 percent. The survey was conducted May 8-20 and has a margin of error of 3.45 percent. Puerto Rico's primary is this Sunday.

Here are our latest additions to CQ Politics state-by-state general election match-ups:

Michigan:John McCain leads Barack Obama by 41 percent to 37 percent but with a whopping 21 percent undecided, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted May 27. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. McCain has an 18 point lead among men voters while Obama leads among women by 8 points. Obama trouces McCain with voters under 34 but he does similar to Obama among voters in the 25-to-49 and over-65 age groups. McCain leads among white voters, who are 83 percent of the sample, by 43 percent to 34 percent but 23 percent are undecided. Obama leads 62 percent to 26 percent among black voters, who comprise 13 percent of the sample. A May 7 survey by Rasmussen Reports had shown a toss-up race no matter which Democrat runs against McCain. McCain had 45 percent to Obama's 44 percent with 6 percent saying they'd vote for a third-party candidate and 5 percent undecided. Clinton tied with McCain at 44 percent with 9 percent saying they'd vote for a third-party candidate and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent.

Voters regard John McCain as more likely than Barack Obama to reach across party lines and work effectively with both Democrats and Republicans, according to a May 26-27 survey by Rasmussen Reports. Sixty-three percent believe McCain is very or somewhat likely to do this, while 52 percent say it of Obama. On ideology, a third of voters regard McCain as conservative, 12 percent say he is very conservative, and 17 percent class him as very or somewhat liberal. For Obama, 39 percent describe him as very liberal, 33 percent as somewhat liberal, and 3 percent as very or somewhat conservative. It would be an interesting dinner party to get that small group of voters together who say McCain is liberal and Obama is conservative.

Forty-eight percent of those surveyed believe McCain will win in November, 39 percent say Obama and 14 percent are undecided. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. Hillary Clinton was not included in the poll.

Hillary Clinton matches up more strongly against John McCain than does Barack Obama in swing states, according to a Gallup analysis of its data gathered May 12-25. The is a broader look than the one Quinnipiac University presented last week where it also noted that Obama faced big challenges in the swing states of Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio. Swing states are defined as those where the presidential outcome in 2004 was five points or less. You can check out polls for specific states in CQ Politics' State-by-State General Election Match-Ups.

While digesting this, you might check out the Boston Globe piece today on whether Obama can "re-do the map" in a set of traditionally Republican states where he plans to compete.

Here are some of Gallup's findings in a nutshell:

• Overall, in the 20 states where Clinton has won the popular vote in primaries or caucuses, she leads McCain 50 percent to 43 percent with 7 percent undecided while McCain edges Obama 56 percent to 45 percent with 9 percent undecided. The margin of error is 1 percent. However, in the 28 states and caucuses (including the District of Columbia) won by Obama, he fares no better than Clinton against McCain.

• Clinton's swing state victories include Ohio and Pennsylvania and, with those, her states represent more than 300 electoral votes to 224 votes for states that Obama won.

• In 8 swing states including Florida and Michigan won by Clinton, she leads McCain 49 percent to 43 percent with 6 percent undecided while McCain leads Obama 46 percent to 43 percent with 11 percent undecided. When Michigan and Florida are removed, Clinton leads McCain 51 percent to 41 percent with 8 percent undecided while his margin over Obama remains the same as when they are still counted.

• In 6 swing states where Obama was the victor, he leads McCain 49 percent to 41 percent with 9 percent undecided while Clinton runs about even with McCain.

• In the seven usually-Republican southern states, McCain leads Clinton by 4 points and Obama by 14 points in popular vote.

• Gallup's conclusion? A kind of unclear verdict. Gallup says based on her edge over Obama in the 20 states she won during the primary season, "Clinton appears to have the stronger chance of capitalizing on her primary strengths in the general election. However, just focusing on the swing states in Clinton's and Obama's respective win columns, the two are fairly similar...removing Florida and Michigan from the equation, her purple states are about comparable to Obama's in electoral vote size, and thus the two appear more evenly situated."

Here's the latest addition to our round-up of polls on this year's Senate races. Republicans are facing a wave of woes, but Democrat Max Baucus has some blessings to count. Be sure to read our Election 2008 overview of the battle for the Senate. Also, check out our Senate "Races to Watch" chart.

Montana: Five term Democrat Baucus has a 65 percent to 26 percent lead over GOP State Sen. Michael Lange, the nearest of the Republican contenders hoping to oppose him in November . The next in line among the five Republicans vying for their party's nomination, Kirk Bushman, is on the short end of a 61 percent to 26 percent stick. The poll was conducted May 19-21 and if you have to know, the margin of error was 4 percent.

Here's our latest addition to our state-by-state general election match-ups:

Iowa: Barack Obama leads John McCain 47 percent to 38 percent with 16 percent undecided in a poll conducted May 21-22 by SurveyUSA. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. Obama and McCain run evenly among men voters but Obama has a big 18 point advantage among women. Among the age groups, the only big lead is the one Obama has among voters under 34. Obama also beats McCain among white voters and independents. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 13 had Obama ahead 44 percent to 42 percent with 8 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent.

Democrats are strikingly more confident that they will win this year's presidential election than Republicans, according to a Gallup panel survey conducted May 19-21. Democrats and Democratic leaners believe they will win by a 61 percent to 37 percent margin while only 39 percent of their Republican counterparts are "confident" of victory compared to 59 percent who are not. Republicans still say, however, that John McCain gives the party a better chance than the other GOP hopefuls who he beat, with 58 percent holding that view. Sixty-two percent of Democrats say Barack Obama gives them the best chance of winning compared to 26 percent for Hillary Clinton.

Here's the latest addition to our round-up of polls on this year's Senate races, with yet three more Republican incumbents - including Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell - falling under 50 percent, a sure sign of vulnerability. Be sure to read our Election 2008 overview of the battle for the Senate. Also, check out our Senate "Races to Watch" chart.

• Kentucky: Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford, a Louisville businessman, is leading incumbent Sen. Mitch McConnell, he Senate GOP leader, by 49 percent to 44 percent with 4 percent preferring "other" and 4 percent undecided, in a May 22 Rasmussen Reports Survey. McConnell is viewed favorably by 52 percent of voters compared to 42 percent who see him negatively, while Lunsford is viewed positively by 47 percent of voters compared to 42 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Rasmussen said just 67 percent of John McCain supporters said they would also vote for McConnell, while 28 percent will defect to Lunsford.

• Minnesota: Incumbent GOP Sen. Norm Coleman is leading Democratic hopeful Al Franken 47 percent to 45 percent with 5 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent undecided, in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 22. The difference is within the 4.5 percent margin of error. The number of voters who view Coleman favorably or unfavorably are equally divided at 49 percent, while Franken is viewed unfavorably by 49 percent and favorably by 47 percent. A month ago, Coleman led 50 percent to 43 percent. A Minneapolis Star Tribune poll conducted May 12-15 had Coleman leading Franken 51 percent to 44 percent with a 3.6 percent margin of error. Coleman is viewed favorably by 53 percent of voters compared to 33 percent, and Franken is viewed UNfavorably by 39 percent versus 33 percent who view him favorably. As far as Franken's tax woes - he admitted he has had to pay penalties and correct past filings in different states - 43 percent of voters say they are satisfied with his explanations and 42 percent say they are not. Check out CQ Politics' story on the money race between Coleman and Franken.

• New Hampshire: Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, the former governor, leads Republican incumbent John Sununu 50 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent preferring "other" and 4 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 21. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Fifty-eight percent regard Shaheen favorably compared to 40 percent who do not, while 49 percent view Sununu positively compared to 47 percent .

John McCain and Barack Obama are in a dead heat - when it comes to who voters would like to chat with at a Memorial Day picnic, according to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted May 8-12. No kidding. Thirty-five percent chose Obama, 33 percent chose McCain and Hillary Clinton would rate an invite from only 27 percent. The margin of error is 2.4 percent so Clinton is statistically less likeable. Men much prefer the company of McCain, while women would opt for either Democrat.

Maurice Carroll, director of Quinnipiac's poll, said, "Sen. Hillary Clinton has downed a few shots and beers recently to show she's a regular gal, but American voters would rather hang out with the guys."

Here are our latest additions to CQ Politics state-by-state general election match-ups:

• Kentucky: John McCain leads Barack Obama 57 percent to 32 percent while Hillary Clinton would beat McCain 51 percent to 42 percent, says a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 22. 59 percent of Kentucky voters have a favorable view of McCain against 39 percent who do not, 56 percent view Clinton favorably compared to 42 percent and only 37 percent regard Obama favorably compared to 61 percent who do not. Rasmussen has been asking voters in each state whether they think it more important to win the war in Iraq or bring American troops home by the end of the next President's first term. The outcome here is closer than a lot of other states which favor the bring-the-troops home goal by larger margins. Fifty percent say bring them home; 41 percent say win the war. Forty-eight percent believe McCain was likely to achieve victory compared to 20 percent for Obama. Fifty-two percent believe Obama is more likely to bring the troops home compared to 44 percent for McCain.

• Minnesota: Both Obama and lead McCain 53 percent to 38 percent, in this Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 22. Obama is viewed favorably by 59 percent of voters, Clinton by 55 percent and McCain by 52 percent. Fifty-five percent of voters want the next President to bring U.S. troops home from Iraq in the next four years, while 36 percent want to win the war. Forty-six percent think winning the war is likely under McCain compared to 23 percent for Obama, but 67 percent believe Obama will achieve the majority's wishes by bringing the troops home compared to 40 percent for McCain. A Minneapolis Star Tribune poll conducted May 12-15 shows Obama ahead of McCain 51 percent to 38 percent and Clinton leading McCain 49 percent to 40 percent. The margin of error is 3.6 percent. The survey said that none of the three have majority support among crucial independent voters. The Democrats have won in every presidential election in the state since 1976.

• Arizona:Guess who's ahead in Arizona? McCain leads Obama 51 to 36 percent with 11 percent undecided and Clinton by 51 percent to 36 percent with 12 percent undecided in a poll conducted May 12-20 by the Behavior Research Center of Arizona. Margin of error is 4 points. Either Democrats runs very closely with McCain among independents and the pollster says that if the Democratic candidate remains competitive among independents, McCain could find himself in a horse race in his home state.

• Montana:McCain leads Obama 47 to 39 percent with 14 percent undecided and Clinton by 51 percent to 40 percent and 9 percent undecided, in a poll conducted May 19-20 by Mason-Dixon for Lee Newspapers. The margin of error is 4 percent. McCain leads Obama by 13 points among men and 7 points among women. Forty-six percent of voters have a favorable view of McCain against 35 percent who do not, 41 percent view Obama favorably compared to 38 percent and Clinton scrapes bottom with only 29 percent having a favorable view of her against 50 percent who do not. Democrats have only carried Montana three times since 1948, the year in which Harry Truman won, according to the Missoulian newspaper. The only other Democrats to win were Lyndon Johnson in 1964 and Bill Clinton in 1992, when independent Ross Perot picked up a quarter of the votes and helped him to victory over the first George Bush.

• New Hampshire: McCain leads Obama 41.8 percent to 39.3 percent with 18 percent undecided, and Clinton by 45.2 percent to 36.4 percent with 18.4 percent undecided in a survey conducted April 28-May 2 by Dartmouth College's Rockefeller Center.

Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 52 percent to 35 percent with 13 percent undecided in a May 19-21 survey conducted by Mason-Dixon for the Lee Newspapers. The margin of error is 5 percent. Montana holds its primary June 3.

While Barack Obama runs dead even with John McCain in a new Newsweek poll at 46 percent each with 8 percent undecided, the survey took a hard look at the race factor by employing what it called a "Racial Resentment Index" to further analyze voting blocs and it concluded that, "Obama's race may well explain his difficulty in winning over white voters." (Click here to read the poll results and here to read the story).

Questions in the poll that tested voters on issues that involved race included views on affirmative action, whether blacks or whites lost out more because of racial preferences in things like hiring or school admissions, whether racial discrimination or personal responsibility accounted for problems facing black Americans, opinions on interracial marriage and dating and reaction that white voters would have if a black American with equal education and income moved into their neighborhood.

The survey was conducted May 21-22 and has a 3.5 percent margin of error for all registered voters and a 5 percent margin of error for registered Democrats and Democratic "leaners."

McCain leads Obama among white voters 52 percent to 40 percent, which is offset by Obama's big 68 percent to 25 percent advantage among non-whites. McCain's lead among white voters over Hillary Clinton was only 48 percent to 44 percent. (In an overall match-up, she led him 48 to 44 percent with 8 percent undecided).

When broken down by Democratic voters who Newsweek identified as scoring high on its Racial Resentment Index, Obama led McCain 55 percent to 33 percent in contrast to Clinton who ran away from McCain by 77 percent to 18 percent. Among Democratic voters who did not score high on the Racial Resentment Index, Obama and Clinton both had leads over McCain of better than 4-to-1.

White Democrats with high RRI scores favored Clinton for the nomination by 67 percent to 21 percent while those with low scores tilted towards Obama 48 percent to 43 percent.

Obama was viewed favorably among overall voters by 54 percent to 40 percent, Clinton by 53 percent to 40 percent and McCain by 54 percent to 40 percent. McCain's favorability ratings among white voters eclipsed Obama and McCain. He got positive marks from 60 percent of whites compared to 50 percent for Clinton and 49 percent for Obama.

In general, voters said the U.S. was ready for an African-American president by a 73 percent to 20 percent margin, and that view was supported by a similar margin among all white voters. However, breaking the white vote down by the poll's RRI, voters who scored high on the resentment index supported that view by only a 54 percent to 53 percent margin compared to low-scorers who believed that by 80 percent to 12 percent.

Barack Obama has clearly emerged in Gallup's daily tracking poll as the favorite of Democrats over Hillary Clinton, but Clinton does slightly better than Obama in its May 19-23 survey when matched against John McCain. She leads McCain 49 percent to 45 percent with 3 percent undecided and 3 percent choosing neither, while Obama is in a statistical dead heat with McCain, with McCain ahead 46 percent to 45 percent with 4 percent undecided and 4 percent not stating a preference for wither. The margin of error is 2 percent. Clinton has pretty consistently had modest leads over McCain since early May, while Obama and McCain have traded the top position several times during the month.

Georgia has gone for Republicans in 7 of the last 10 elections with the exceptions being Bill Clinton's two terms and Jimmy Carter's one term. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 6 showed McCain with leading Barack Obama 53 percent to 39 percent and Hillary Clinton by 48 percent to 37 percent in the quest for the state's 15 votes. An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted May 19 has factored in former Georgia Rep. Bob Barr who is seeking to become the candidate of the Libertarian party. (See Eric Pfeiffer's piece on this week's debate among the top three contenders and a video excerpts of that debate). The poll shows McCain at 45 percent, Obama at 35 percent, and Barr at 8 percent with 12 percent undecided. InsiderAdvantage's Matt Towery believes that A Barr candidacy will make Georgia a centerpiece in the November race, given the fact that most other Southern states appear to be less competitive for Barack Obama."

There are two new polls on the delegate-rich state of California and, unsurprisingly, both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have big leads there over John McCain.

Public Policy Institute of California: Obama leads McCain 54 percent to 37 percent with 7 percent undecided, in this poll conducted May 12-18. In the unlikely event Hillary Clinton was the nominee, should would be leading McCain 51 percent to 39 percent with 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 percent. Both Obama and Clinton enjoy advantages of around 20 points over McCain among independents. While Obama and Clinton both do equally well among women voters against McCain, Obama is a stronger candidate against him among men. Obama is viewed favorably by 59 percent of voters compared to 36 percent who have a dimmer view of him, Clinton is viewed unfavorably by 51 percent and favorably by 46 percent, while McCain is viewed unfavorably by 53 percent compared to 42 percent with positive views of him.

Rasmussen Reports: Obama leads McCain 52 percent to 38 percent with 7 percent preferring someone else, while Clinton leads McCain 54 percent to 35 percent with 7 percent choosing "other," in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 19-20. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama is viewed favorably by 57 percent of voters compared to 42 percent who view him unfavorably and McCain is viewed unfavorably by 52 percent of voters compared to 46 percent who view him favorably. However, Rasmussen's findings on Clinton differs significantly from PPIC, saying she is viewed favorably by 58 percent and unfavorably by 41 percent. Democrats believe Obama is the stronger candidate against McCain by a 50 percent to 42 percent margin.

Nearly two-thirds of voters want the next President to bring American troops home from Iraq in four years compared to 29 percent who place more importance on winning the war. Thirty-four percent believe that is somewhat or very likely to happen under McCain while 64 percent believe it is likely to happen under Obama. Only 38 percent believe that the war could be won under McCain and 25 percent believe that for Obama.

Barack Obama finds himself facing a challenge in two key general election swing states because of his difficulty in holding on to supporters of Hillary Clinton and white working class voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted May 13-20. His weaknesses are most apparent in Florida and Ohio, but in all three swing states, which include Pennsylvania, he has alarmingly low levels of support from Clinton supporters when it comes to a direct match-up with John McCain.

• Florida: McCain leads Obama 45 percent to 41 percent, with a 2.6 percent margin of error. Clinton leads McCain 48 percent to 41 percent. McCain leads Obama among men voters 48 percent to 39 and they run evenly among women. Clinton would have a 17 point lead over McCain among women and run closer to him among men. Democrats split at 41 percent each in their preference for Obama or Clinton, but ominously for Obama, Clinton supporters say they would back him against McCain by only a 43 percent to 36 percent margin. Floridians split on whether they trust McCain or Obama more to handle the economy, they trust McCain more on Iraq by 10 points and on terrorism by 24 points. Obama bests McCain on health care by 13 points. In a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 19, McCain led Obama 50 percent to 40 percent with 6 percent preferring "other" than 3 percent undecided. Clinton led McCain 47 percent to 41 percent.

• Ohio: McCain leads Obama 44 percent to 40 percent, with a 2.8 percent margin of error. Clinton leads McCain 48 percent to 41 percent. McCain leads Obama among men voters 47 percent to 39 percent, while Obama has a bare 42 percent to 40 percent advantage among women. By contrast, Clinton runs evenly with McCain among men and leads him by 16 points among women voters. Clinton backers say they would support Obama over McCain by only a 50 percent to 26 percent margin. Voters trust Obama more than McCain by 6 points on the economy and McCain by 14 percent over Obama on Iraq. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 15 had Obama locked with McCain at 45 percent to 44 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. If Clinton were to stage a miracle and become the nominee, she'd be leading McCain 50 percent to 43 percent.

• Pennsylvania:Obama leads McCain 46 percent to 40 percent with a 2.4 percent margin of error. Clinton is ahead 50 percent to 37 percent. McCain and Obama split men voters while Obama leads McCain by 12 points among women. Clinton would also run close to McCain among men but has a 26 point advantage among women. Democrats who back Clinton say they would support Obama over McCain by only a 51 percent to 32 percent margin. They trust Obama more on the economy by 11 points and favor McCain on Iraq by 6 points. In a SurveyUSA poll) conducted May 16-18,Obama has a 48 percent to 40 percent lead over McCain with 12 percent undecided.

The latest George Washington University Battleground 2008 poll underlines what other recent national polls have had to say: that the country is headed into the general election in an increasingly negative mood and, when you look at voter preferences generically as opposed to support for specific candidates, they favor the Democrats. The survey was conducted May 11-14 and has a 3.1 percent margin of error.

Slightly more than three-quarters of voters said the country was on the wrong track, a finding similar to a Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted May 8-11 which put that number at 8 out of 10. Democrats have a generic lead in the presidential race, 49 percent to 41 percent, and 49 percent to 40 percent on the congressional level. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted April 30-May 8 tested a number of top issues and found greater trust of the Democrats compared to Republicans. But a majority of both Democrats (57 percent) and Republicans (68 percent) disapprove of the jobs Congress is doing. And that tallies with a mid-May survey by Rasmussen that found approval ratings of Congress scraping bottom.

DJ Drummond at WizbangPOLITICS has a good post about how generic support for a party does not necessarily translate into support for its candidates.

Here's the latest addition to our round-up of polls on this year's Senate races. Be sure to read our Election 2008 overview of the battle for the Senate. Also, check out our Senate "Races to Watch" chart.

Colorado: Democrat Mark Udall is leading Republican Bob Schaffer 47 percent to 41 percent in the race to claim the seat of GOP incumbent Wayne Allard, in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 19. Nine percent are undecided and the margin of error is 4.5 percent. Udall is regarded favorably by 50 percent of voters and unfavorably by 35 percent, compared to a 44 percent favorability rating for Schaffer and a 39 percent unfavorable score.

Here's our latest additions to our round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups. There's some interesting trends on voter sentiments about Iraq in Florida and Colorado. Most voters in both states favor the goal of getting American troops home from Iraq by the end of the next President's first term compared to winning the war. Most believe McCain is more likely to win the war, while Obama is more likely to bring the troops home in that timeframe. Still, if that reflects a problem for McCain given his hawkish Iraq stand, he does pretty well in these newest Rasmussen polls:

• Florida: John McCain leads Barack Obama 50 percent to 40 percent with 6 percent preferring "other" than 3 percent undecided, in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 19. Hillary Clinton leads McCain 47 percent to 41 percent. Clinton is viewed positively by 53 percent of voters, McCain by 50 percent and Obama by 48 percent. Half of voters cite the economy as the top issue while 18 percent name Iraq. Ironically, although McCain leads Obama, it is despite the fact that 58 percent of voters would rather see the next President bring American troops home from Iraq in a first term compared to 35 percent who say it is more important to win the war. Only 24 percent of voters believe is very or somewhat likely to be the President that wins the war, but 59 percent say he would bring the troops home in his first term. Forty-three percent believe that the war would be won under McCain, while 38 percent believe the troops would come home before his first term was over. In a Quinnipiac University poll conducted April 23-29, McCain edged Obama 44 percent to 43 percent with a 2.6 percent margin of error. McCain bested Obama among white working class voters by 51 percent to 34 percent.

• Colorado:Obama leads McCain 48 percent to 42 percent with 5 percent undecided and 5 percent preferring someone else, in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 19. The two were in a statistical dead heat in Rasmussen's last poll conducted mid-April. If Hillary Clinton were the Democratic nominee, McCain would be leading her 47 percent to 44 percent with 7 percent preferring other. The margin of error is 4 points. Obama is viewed favorably by 55 percent of voters, McCain by 51 percent and Clinton by 44 percent. Forty-one percent of voters name the economy as the top issue with Iraq second at 21 percent. Fifty-four percent of voters favor the goal of getting the troops home from Iraq before the end of the next President's term, compared to 39 percent who want to win it. Forty-four percent of voters say that if McCain is president he is very or somewhat likely to win the war in Iraq compared to 20 percent who say that of Obama. Thirty-five percent believe that it is very or somewhat likely that McCain as President would have American troops out of Iraq by the end of his first term, but 60 percent believe Obama would bring them home in that timeframe.

• California: Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 41 percent with 10 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted May 16-18. SurveyUSA's mid-April poll had Obama ahead 50 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. Obama has a 14 point lead among men, McCain runs evenly with him among women, bringing to mind a Gallup analysis that points to Obama's relative weakness among women going into the general election campaign, at least compared to Clinton. Obama bests McCain in every age group except those over 65. McCain has a slight edge among independents. SurveyUSA did not poll on Clinton.

If you followed the polls and vote analyses through the Democratic primaries, this won't come as a big surprise, but Gallup's analysis of its data May 1-17 suggests that Barack Obama is going to have a bigger challenge in winning over white voters against John McCain than Hillary Clinton would have. Perhaps the one surprise in this is that Obama's problem has less to do with the much written-about vote of blue-collar whites than it does with Clinton's superior strength among white women.

McCain leads Obama among all white voters 53 percent to 38 percent and runs ahead of Clinton by a lesser 51 percent to 42 percent. Taking white males one, McCain does equally well against either Democratic, besting them by 19 points. The same is true when McCain is matched against the Democrats among white men without college education.

But among white women, while Clinton narrowly outpolls McCain 48 percent to 45 percent, McCain leads Obama 49 percent to 40 percent. The margin of error is 1 percent. When that group is further analyzed to break out white women without a college education, McCain and Clinton ties at 46 percent each, but McCain leads Obama 51 percent to 35 percent.

MSNBC:

• Seven in 10 white voters backed Clinton in Kentucky, including about three-quarters of those who did not complete college.

• Only four in 10 white working-class voters said they would support Obama against John McCain in the general election.

• About one in five white voters in Kentucky said race was a factor in their decision and nine of 10 of them said they voted for Clinton.

Fox News:

• Clinton won 73 percent of the vote among white women.

• Forty-five percent of voters said they had been affected by the economic downturn and, of them, 68 percent backed Clinton.

• Forty-seven percent of voters in Kentucky said they regard Obama as trustworthy compared to 45 percent for Clinton.

• Fifty-three percent of Kentucky voters believe Obama shares the views of his controversial ex-pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

• In Oregon, unlike other states, Obama was splitting the women's vote with Clinton and he also was beating her handily among union voters.

ABC News:

• Unlike Kentucky, only one in six said they would vote for McCain over Obama.

CNN:

• Fifty-six percent of Kentuckians said that Obama should choose Clinton as his running-mate against 42 percent who said he should not. Seventy-seven percent of Clinton supporters expressed that view but only 41 percent of Obama supporters agreed.

Here's our latest additions to our round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups:

• Pennsylvania:Barack Obama Obama has a 48 percent to 40 percent lead over John McCain with 12 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted May 16-18. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. The two run fairly evenly among men but Obama has a 14 point lead among women. The age group differences aren't large except for the 27 percent of voters under 34 who favor Obama by just about 2-to-1. The two run evenly among white voters who make up 86 percent of the sample. A Quinnipiac Poll conducted April 23-29 had Obama ahead 47 percent to 38 percent.

• New Mexico: McCain and Obama run dead even at 44 percent each with 12 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted May 16-18. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. McCain has a big 52 percent to 37 percent lead among white voters (49 percent of the sample) while Obama leads 51 percent to 40 percent among Hispanic voters (39 percent of the sample). McCain has more solid support among Republicans than Obama does among Democrats while McCain polls 13 points better than Obama among independents. In mid-April, McCain led Obama in this poll by 50 percent to 44 percent.

By the way, these presidential match-up numbers, sans Hillary Clinton, are pulled from a series of polls SurveyUSA has done in 17 states to test how Obama and McCain do when paired against each other with various vice presidential combinations. Unfortunately, SurveyUSA is presenting these one-by-one which makes it hard to compare over the range of states. So, instead go play our VP Madness bracketology game and choose McCain's running-mate yourself! We're entering the final round.

Public opinion about Congress continues to scrape bottom with just 13 percent of voters saying it is doing a good or excellent job, 37 percent giving it a mark of "fair," and 19 percent calling its performance poor, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 14-15.

Some more highlights, (or, should we say lowlights?)

• Sixty-one percent gave a resounding "no" when asked whether Congress had passed any legislation over the past year that significantly improved life in the U.S.
• Fifty-six percent of those surveyed believe it is not very likely or not likely at all that, in the coming year, Congress will address the most important problems facing the country.
• Nearly three quarters believe lawmakers are more interested in their own careers than helping people.

As the Democrats start to coalesce around Barack Obama, those coming over to his side appear to be drawn from some of the key constituencies that supported Hillary Clinton during the campaign, according to Gallup data gathered between May 1-13. As of now, Clinton's support among whites, women and voters with high school degrees or less have dipped just below 50 percent, while her support among Hispanics stands at 51 percent. Among the first three groups, Obama is now statistically even with Clinton; among Hispanics he trails by 7 points. Gallup says that only major demographic group still supporting Clinton by more than the 51 percent she registers with Hispanics are women over 50.

Meanwhile, Gallup's daily tracking poll, conducted May 17-19, now has Obama leading Clinton 54 percent to 40 percent.

Much has been written about the high voter turnout in these year's primaries, particularly on the Democratic side, but while 23 of 34 states reported record turnouts, the overall national turnout of 30.2 percent of the eligible electorate fell short of the 30.9 percent who voted in 1972, according to a study by American University's Center for the Study of the American Electorate. The Center predicted a high turnout also for the general election but said whether it will be higher than the 61 percent who voted four years ago is still in doubt.

So, let's take a trip down memory lane to 1972 when the Vietnam War caused a fierce divide among the Democrats and stoked that year's turnout. That was the year the new procedures set by the commission led by George McGovern shifted the power to choose the nominee towards the primaries, and though McGovern actually got slightly fewer overall votes than Hubert Humphrey (25.34 percent to Humphrey's 25.77 percent), he won the nomination. It was also the year that George Wallace entered the presidential fray and garnered 23.48 percent of the primary votes. Coming out of the disastrous (for them) 1968 elections, many Democrats had been looking towards Ted Kennedy as the next standard-bearer, but that hope was dashed by Chappaquiddick the next year. Edmund Muskie, who was Humphrey's running mate in 1968, was the favorite going into the 1972 Democratic race, but after the (in)famous New Hampshire incident where the press reported Muskie had let some tears roll over criticism of his wife, that was that for another presumed frontunner.

The Center's study says, "Turnout in this year's general election will be driven by an extraordinarily discontented public" and noted that in the three elections since 1960 where turnout increased (the 1982 midterm, and the 1992 and 2004 presidential years), it was "largely driven by citizen insecurity about economies perceived to be in recession and, as noted above, the 2004 turnout surge was propelled by the polarizing policy and presidency of President Bush."

Three polls are out today showing different forecasts for tomorrow's vote in Oregon - two with Barack Obama leading by a lot, and one by a little. Public Policy Polling has Obama ahead of Hillary Clinton by 58 percent to 39 percent in a survey conducted May 17-18. SurveyUSA, which polled May 16-18, has Obama ahead 55 percent to 42 percent with a 4 point margin of error. Earlier today, a Suffolk University poll also conducted May 17-18 had Obama leading 45 percent to 41 percent with 8 percent undecided and 6 percent not making a choice. The margin of error was 4 percent.

In Kentucky, SurveyUSA has Clinton ahead 62 percent to 31 percent in a survey conducted May 16-18. A Suffolk University poll conducted May 17-18 has Clinton ahead in Oklahoma by 51 percent to 26 percent with John Edwards (still in the sample) at 6 percent, uncommitted at 5 percent and 11 percent undecided.

As Barack Obama appears more and more inevitable as the Democratic nominee, his lead over Hillary Clinton in Gallup's daily tracking poll continues to widen. He now leads Clinton 55 percent to 39 percent in a survey conducted May 16-18. However, Obama isn't yet getting much traction against John McCain, with only a 46 percent to 45 percent edge, within the 2 point margin of error of the May 14-18 survey. Clinton does a bit better, leading 48 percent to 44 percent.

Welcome back to our round-up of polls on this year's Senate races. Be sure to read our Election 2008 overview of the battle for the Senate.

Democrat Al Franken clearly has his hands full in his race against incumbent Sen. Norm Coleman, with Coleman leading him 51 percent to 44 percent in a survey conducted May 12-15 for the Minneapolis Star Tribune. The margin of error is 3.6 percent. Even lawyer Mike Ciresi, who dropped out of the race for the Democratic nomination, would do as well against Coleman. Coleman is viewed favorably by 53 percent of voters compared to 33 percent, and Franken is viewed UNfavorably by 39 percent versus 33 percent who view him favorably. As far as Franken's tax woes - he admitted he has had to pay penalties and correct past filings in different states - 43 percent of voters say they are satisfied with his explanations and 42 percent say they are not. Check out CQ Politics' story on the money race between Coleman and Franken.

Here's our latest additions to our round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups:

Ohio: In the last 10 elections, the candidate who has won this state has won the White House. Right now, John McCain is locked with Barack Obama at 45 percent to 44 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided, in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 15. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. If Hillary Clinton were to stage a miracle and become the nominee, she'd be leading McCain 50 percent to 43 percent. Fifty-three percent of voters view McCain and Clinton favorably while Obama is viewed favorably by 47 percent and unfavorably by 52 percent.

Looking ahead to tomorrow's two primaries, Hillary Clinton is maintaining her big lead in Kentucky and while Barack Obama leads in Oregon, the race looks closer. A Suffolk University poll conducted May 17-18 has Clinton ahead in Oklahoma by 51 percent to 26 percent with John Edwards (still in the sample) at 6 percent, uncommitted at 5 percent and 11 percent undecided. In Oregon, Obama leads 45 percent to 41 percent with 8 percent undecided and 6 percent not making a choice. The margin of error is 4 percent. Obama's favorability-unfavorability reflects the same sentiments as West Virginia, 43 percent positive, 43 percent negative. But send him cross-country to the Northwest and, in Oregon, 73 percent view him favorably compared to 15 percent.

In Kentucky, when voters were asked what they would do in November if their choice for the nomination didn't win, 41 percent said they'd vote for the Democrat, 28 percent would vote for John McCain, 4 percent for Ralph Nader, and 24 percent were undecided. In Oregon, 59 percent would stick with the Democratic nominee, 19 percent would vote for McCain, 5 percent for Nader and 13 percent were undecided.

See the Boston Globe's piece today on the divide between oregon's rural east and urban west.

Barack Obama now leads Hillary Clinton ffor the hearts and minds of Democrats by 52 percent to 41 percent in the Gallup daily tracking poll conducted May 15-17. The margin of error is 3 points. The last time Obama held this big of a lead was in mid-April. But Gallup's news isn't as good for Obama on the general election front. In data collected May 13-17, McCain edges Obama 46 percent to 45 percent, with a 2 percent margin of error, indicating how competitive that race looks from this vantage point. Clinton leads McCain 47 percent to 45 percent, also not a statistically significant number.

Our state-by-state round-up of polls on this year's Senate races so far supports the view that the Republicans face a challenging year. Some GOP incumbents are clearly showing vulnerabilities and others, while ahead, are looking at races that seem more competitive than a couple of months ago.

Be sure to read our Election 2008 overview of the battle for the Senate.

• Maine: Republican Sen. Susan Collins still has a 52 percent to 42 percent lead over Democratic challenger Tom Allen, although that is down from the 16 point advantage she had a month ago, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 14. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Collins is viewed favorably by 70 percent of voters compared to 29 percent with a negative view, and Allen is viewed favorably by 58 percent compared to 35 percent. Collins has the backing of 74 percent of conservatives, 55 percent of moderates and 27 percent of liberals. Allen draws on the support of 71 percent of liberal voters, 36 percent of moderates and 20 percent of conservatives.

• Kansas: Two-term Republican Sen. Pat Roberts has a 50 percent to 42 percent lead over his Demo critic challenger, Rep. Jim Slattery. Roberts had looked like a runaway favorite for re-election as Democrats scrambled to find a credible challenger, but they appear to have had at least some success by Slattery's decision to get into the race. Roberts is viewed favorably by 60 percent of voters compared to 34 percent who have negative views, while Slattery's numbers are 46 percent favorable to 38 percent unfavorable with 17 percent not sure. Both are tied at 46 percent for the support of moderate voters.

Here's our latest additions to our round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups:

• Minnesota: A poll for the Minneapolis Star Tribune conducted May 12-15 shows Barack Obama ahead of John McCain 51 percent to 38 percent and Clinton leading McCain 49 percent to 40 percent. The margin of error is 3.6 percent. The survey said that none of the three have majority support among crucial independent voters. The Democrats have won in every presidential election in the state since 1976.

• Nebraska: McCain leads Obama 50 percent to 39 percent with 5 percent undecided and 6 percent preferring "other," in a survey conducted May 15 by Rasmussen Reports. McCain leads Clinton 57 percent to 34 percent. McCain is viewed favorably by 61 percent of voters compared to 37 percent; Obama is viewed Unfavorably by 50 percent compared to 49 percent; and Clinton is viewed unfavorably by 59 percent compared to 39 percent.

• Alaska: McCain leads Obama 51 percent to 41 percent with 8 percent undecided and preferring someone else, in a Rasmussen survey conducted May 14. He leads Clinton 53 percent to 36 percent. McCain is viewed favorably by 57 percent of voters compared to 42 percent; Obama is viewed favorably by 52 percent compared to 46 percent; and, Clinton is viewed negatively by 58 percent to 40 percent.

As further evidence of the troubles Republicans face in this year's Senate elections, a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 14 shows Alaska's Ted Stevens trailing Democrat Mark Begich by 2 points, with the Anchorage mayor leading the 6-term senator 47 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Nearly a quarter of voters who plan to vote for John McCain, say they will back Begich for Senate. Stevens has been a perennial shoo-in, winning his last election with 78 percent of the vote. But since then, he has been caught up in a federal corruption investigation and the number of voters who view him unfavorably stands at 53 percent to 46 percent who have a positive view. Voters view Begich favorably by a 54 percent to 38 percent margin.

A couple of other recent Senate polls on which we reported showed Democrat Tom Udall way ahead in the race to replace retiring New Mexico Sen. Pete Domenici and Democrat Kay Hagan closing in on North Carolina Sen. Elizabeth Dole.

For an overview of the battle for the Senate, see our wrap-up: More Open Seats Hurt the GOP's Chances.

Since the margin of error for the poll is +/- 3 percent, that puts the candidates in a statistical dead heat. Yesterday's daily tracking poll had at Obama at 50 percent and Clinton at 44.

The survey was conducted May 13-15. During that time, Clinton won the West Virginia primary and John Edwards endorsed Barack Obama.

Gallup notes that the "slight narrowing of the race ... is typical of the way the contest has gone over the past several months, with neither candidate able to maintain a significant lead among national Democratic voters for very long."

There has been a small change in hypothetical match-ups with Republican John McCain. McCain is ahead of Obama, 47-45 percent among registered voters (the two were tied at 45 yesterday). With the margin of error at +/- 2 percent, that also puts them in a statistical tie. But against Clinton, McCain fares signficantly worse: Clinton has a 3 point lead 48 - 45 percent.

In Kentucky, Clinton leads Obama 65 to 29 percent. She trumps him in support from men (56 -38 percent) as well as women (72-21) and regardless of age. Obama leads Clinton among African American voters (91-7), who make up 11 percent of this electorate.

In Oregon, Obama's lead is much narrower: 50 to 45 percent. He has more white voter support (51-44) and among those 18 to 49 years old (55-38). But Clinton has more support from women (51-44) and Hispanic voters (50-46). American Research Group says Hispanics are 6 percent of the vote.

The margin of error for each poll is +/- 4 percent and the surveys were conducted May 14-15.

In a SurveyUSA poll of likely New Mexican voters, Democrat Tom Udall would easily defeat either Republican running for the seat, Heather Wilson (61-35 percent) or Steven Pearce (60-36 percent). The margin of error was +/- 2.3 percent.

Wilson and Pearce are in a tight race for the Republican nomination, which is currently held by retiring Sen. Pete V. Domenici. The poll shows them almost tied, with Pearce having the slight edge over Wilson (49-46 percent). The primary is June 3.

The margin of error on the Republican-only poll was +/- 4.8 percent. The poll was conducted May 12-14.

Udall, Wilson and Pearce gave up their House seats to run for the Senate.

Clinton does have a slim head-to-head lead over McCain, leading him 48 to 45 percent. Obama is tied with John McCain at 45 percent when voters are asked about that November general election match-up.

The Democratic nomination results are based on data from May 12-14, and the margin of error is ±3 percentage points. The general election results are based on data from May 10-14. For results based on this sample of 4,372 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

Here are the latest updates to our state-by-state general election match-ups, all from Rasmussen Reports. All had a margin of error of 4.5 percent.

• Iowa: Barack Obama leads John McCain 44 percent to 42 percent with 8 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent not sure in a survey conducted May 12. McCain edges Clinton 45 percent to 42 percent with 9 percent preferring other and 4 percent not sure. The figures for Obama and McCain haven't shown much movement since February. Fifty-three percent of voters view Obama favorably compared to 51 percent for McCain, but that represents a 7 point drop for the Republican.

• Arkansas: McCain leads Obama 53 percent to 37 percent, while Clinton bests McCain 53 percent to 39 percent in the state where she was First Lady. McCain's margin over Obama is due to 92 percent support among fellow Republicans, 38 percent support from Democrats and 24 percent from unaffiliated voters. Obama's favorability rating here is only 38 percent. McCain's is 57 percent and Clinton's is 60 percent.

• Washington state: Obama leads McCain 51 percent to 40 percent, compared to the 5 point lead he held in the previous poll. Obama's favorability rating is 57 percent, while McCain's is 49 percent - which, as in Iowa, is a 7 point drop for him. A SurveyUSA poll conducted May 12 had Obama ahead 54 to 42 percent with a 3.9 percent margin of error. Clinton leads McCain by 49 percent to 45 percent. Obama runs far ahead of McCain on the issues of the economy, environment, health care and Iraq while McCain leads Obama by a wide margin on the issues of terrorism and immigration.

And the stability - and negativity - persist when Americans were asked about the future. Eighty-six percent of respondents thought economic conditions were getting worse, while just 10 percent thought they were getting better.

There were no stark differences among groups, but Gallup does note: "Americans living in high-income households, Republicans, and residents of the Southwest and Rocky Mountain states are a bit more likely to have a positive economic outlook than are others; but even the vast majority of these groups are negative about the economy." As an example: 15 percent of Republicans were upbeat, compared to just 3 percent of Democrats.

The nationwide poll was conducted May 1-13 and the margin of error was +/- 1 percent.

McCain is significantly more popular than Hillary Rodham Clinton among independents, 46 to 41 percent.

In today's Quinnipiac Poll, Obama fared much better among independents, besting McCain 48 to 37 percent.

Gallup cautions against over-interpreting the impact of independents' preferences: "Independents are usually one of the most closely watched swing voter groups each presidential election. However, contrary to expectations, they are not always decisive, in part because turnout among independents is usually lower than it is among those with a political party affiliation."

The pollsters go on to note that George W. Bush in 2004, Al Gore in 2000, Jimmy Carter in 1976, and John F. Kennedy in 1960 all won the popular vote "despite losing among independents."

The gap was wider for independent voters, thought to be McCain's strength. They picked Obama over McCain, 48-37 percent. But when the matchup was with Clinton, the independents preferred neither, each getting 41 percent.

Democrats overwhelmingly (60-33) favored an Obama-Clinton ticket over any other matchup. At the same time, Democrats continue to want Clinton to stay in the race (63-34).

"Sen. Hillary Clinton's never-say-die campaign still has lots of fans. Just as in delegates, states, money, you-name-it, Obama leads her in national support - but only by a bit," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

The telephone survey was conducted May 8-12, after the Indiana and North Carolina primaries and before the West Virginia primary.

Gallup has tracked congressional approval for 34 years, and a national poll released today shows a record-tying low approval rating and close to a record disapproval score. In fact, the 18 percent approval rating for Congress is more than ten percentage points lower than President Bush’s current approval rating of 29 percent (which is only one point higher than his all-time low from April and early May of this year).

Democratic-voter approval had been as high as 44 percent at the start of the Democratically controlled Congress last January and is now down to 16 percent, nearly one-third of that score. Republicans did not lag behind the Democrats too much in approving the new Congress for most of the first year of the 110th, and now give a 20 percent congressional approval rating.

The partisan divide is much more noticable in the presidential support ratings. While a 66 percent presidential approval rating by Republicans is lower than it had been in previous years, it is substantially higher than his score among Democrats — only 7 percent of Democrats approve of the president’s current performance.

The poll is based on interviews with 1,017 adults conducted May 8-11, and the margin of error is ±3 percentage points.

Despite news of superdelegate pickups by Barack Obama and his lead in many national polls, a slim majority (55 percent) of Democratic voters are in favor of both Hillary Rodham Clinton and Obama staying in the race for the presidential nomination. The Gallup poll was conducted May 8-11. It does show a slight drop in Democratic support for a competitive campaign; last week’s poll — conducted before the primaries in Indiana and North Carolina — showed 60 percent of Democratic voters in favor of the candidates continuing to battle it out. And the percentage of Democratic respondents advocating that Clinton end her campaign has risen 12 percentage points from 23 percent last week to 35 percent this week.

It is clear that Clinton’s supporters want to see her stay in the race, and that Obama’s supporters want Clinton to give up her candidacy. Seventy-five percent of Clinton supporters, but only 39 percent of Obama supporters, want both to continue. And, 60 percent of Obama supporters want the New York senator to drop her bid.

According to today’s poll, nearly three-quarters (73 percent) of Clinton’s supporters would like to see Obama choose the New York senator as a running mate, as would 43 percent of Obama’s supporters. More than half of Obama’s supporters polled, though, reject an Obama-Clinton ticket.

For results based on the sample of 537 Democrats or Democratic leaners, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

If polls showed Hillary Clinton with West Virginia snugly in her pocket, the same is true for Barack Obama and Oregon, which votes next week.

Three polls have Obama ahead of Clinton by double-digits. Obama leads Clinton 53 percent to 39 percent in a survey conducted May 10-11 by Public Policy Polling. Unlike most other states, the war in Iraq is considered by voters as the top issue with 41 percent saying so, compared to 34 percent who cited the economy. Obama leads Clinton among those who chose Iraq by 63 percent to 31 percent and has a much smaller 48 percent to 44 percent lead over her on the economy. In A surveyUSA poll conducted May 9-11, his lead is 54 percent to 43 percent with a 4 percent margin of error. The SurveyUSA poll still has the economy cited as more important than Iraq, but only by 32 percent to 25 percent. Obama leads among those most concerned with Iraq by 65 percent to 35 percent, and among those who cited the economy by 52 percent to 42 percent. A poll conducted May 8-10 for the Portland Oregonian gave Obama a 55 percent to 35 percent lead.

Kentucky, which also votes next week, is much like West Virginia for Clinton. She leads 60 percent to 32 percent in a poll conducted by SurveyUSA May 9-11

Picking up on a similar pro-Democratic sentiment among voters found in the Washington Post/ABC News poll on which we reported earlier, Rasmussen Reports dug into its data gathered between April 30 - May 8 to test which way these voters leaned on ten key election issues – and found Democrats topped Republicans on all 10.

Rasmussen said the biggest surprise was that voters trusted Democrats more than Republicans when it came to national security and fighting terrorism, by a 49 percent to 42 percent margin. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. On government ethics and integrity, cited as a very important issue by 71 percent of voters, 45 percent trust the Democrats compared to 26 percent for the Republicans.

Rasmussen offers one important caveat on reading too much into these findings as far as what they say about the general election, since its polling has also found that John McCain does better than his party, a conclusion that could also be drawn from the Post/ABC News poll.

A Washington Post/ABC News poll shows Barack Obama leading John McCain in a general election match-up by 51 percent to 44 percent, an advantage beyond the 3 point margin of error but one that still shows a competitive race despite the fact that 8 in 10 Americans think the country is headed in the wrong direction as the Bush administration winds down, and the Democrats are considered the party better able to handle the nation’s problems by a 21 point margin. That gap between the public’s faith in Democrats versus Republicans is the biggest since 1982. Hillary Clinton leads McCain 49 percent to 46 percent. The poll was conducted May 8-11.

Obama is favored over Hillary Clinton by Democrats for their party’s nomination by 53 percent to 41 percent, a 2 point gain for Obama over last month’s poll, and that they believe Obama is more electable in November by 62 percent to 26 percent. The margin of error for the Democratic results is 4 percent. Fifty-six percent of Democrats said the length and contentious of the Democratic contest would make no difference for November while 27 percent said it would the party’s chances. Fifteen percent said it would help.

North Carolina Sen. Elizabeth Dole may be hearing foot steps behind her as two polls show her Democratic challenger, Kay Hagan, a five term member of the state senate, closing the gap between them. Public Policy Polling has Dole ahead by 48 percent to 43 percent compared to the 17 point lead she had in February. The survey was conducted May 8-9 and has a margin of error of 4 percent. Rasmussen Reports yesterday released a poll conducted May 8 that showed Hagan ahead of Dole, although by a statistically insignificant 48 percent to 47 percent. A month earlier, Dole had a 13 point lead in this poll.

Hagan scored a runaway victory in the state’s May 6 primary for the right to challenge Dole, and PPP says the visibility she built up during that campaign may have helped. Now it remains to be seen if she can raise the $10 million she says she needs to compete with Dole. As of now, CQ Politics rates the race as “Republican favored” although we note that Dole is vulnerable, in part because her ties to President Bush. Rasmussen noted that Hagan has tried hard to make that connection by noting that Dole votes with Bush 92 percent of the time.

Barack Obama has jumped back to a statistically significant lead over Hillary Clinton in Gallup’s daily tracking poll. In a survey conducted May 9-11, Obama is ahead of Clinton 50 percent to 43 percent with a 3 percent margin of error. It has been almost three weeks since he was ahead by that kind of margin. In the general election match-ups, Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 43 percent and Clinton is ahead 49 percent to 44 percent which Gallup says “represent the candidates' highest margins over McCain, to date, since Gallup began tracking the general election ballots in early March.” The margin of error in this May 7-11 survey is 2 percent.

Adding two eastern seaboard states where the general election match-ups are competitive:

• Virginia: Barack Obama has pulled within 3 points of John McCain in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 8. McCain leads Obama 47 percent to 44 percent with a margin of error of 4.5 percent, compared to an 11 point lead a month ago. He leads Hillary Clinton 47 percent to 41 percent. Sixty percent of Virginia voters view McCain favorably, 51 percent have positive views of Obama, and Clinton scores at 42 percent. Virginia has voted for Republicans in the last ten presidential races. A SurveyUSA poll in mid-April had McCain ahead of Obama 52 percent to 44 percent and leading Clinton 55 percent to 39 percent.

• North Carolina:The race between Obama and McCain is also within the margin of error here in a Rasmussen poll conducted May 8, with McCain leading Obama 48 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain leads Clinton 43 percent to 40 percent with a whopping 14 percent choosing “other.” Obama does best among voters making less than $20,000 a year or more than $75,000 while McCain does best among middle-income voters. McCain is viewed favorably by 53 percent of voters while Obama’s score is 51 percent. Feelings run stronger in both directions about Obama: 37 percent have a very favorable opinion of him while 30 percent have a very unfavorable opinion, compared to 18 percent and 23 percent respectively for McCain. Clinton’s favorable vote is 46 percent. A May 8-9 survey by Public Policy Polling shows McCain ahead by a bigger margin, though not a lead that's out of reach. McCain leads Obama 49 percent to 42 percent and Clinton by 46 percent to 38 percent with a 4 percent margin of error.

That Hillary Clinton is waaaay ahead in West Virginia, which votes tomorrow, is not news; but the news might be that there are signs this is a state where Barack Obama could have problems in the general election (although with only 5 electoral votes, that may not cause too much sleep to be lost). A Suffolk University poll, conducted May 10-11, says Clinton leads Obama 60 percent to 24 percent with 8 percent undecided and John Edwards, who is still on the ballot, at 4 percent. Two-thirds of West Virginia Democrats said she should stay in the race and 72 percent said she’s not hurting the party by doing so.

West Virginia’s tourist slogan – “wild and wonderful” – might also apply to its voters extraordinary faith that Clinton will be the next president. Thirty-one percent said Clinton, 27 percent said Obama and 26 percent said McCain. Only 40 percent said they would still vote for the Democratic candidate in the general election if their first choice for the nomination lost.

David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said, “Barack Obama may have to write off West Virginia come November…If (he) can't even garner thirty percent of West Virginia Democratic Primary voters, what does that say about the West Virginia general election?"

On this point, check out a CQ Politics video with a West Virginia political analyst.

If the pundits and many voters thought the Rev. Jeremiah Wright was a political albatross for Barack Obama, wait till you see what President Bush does for John McCain.

A USA Today/Gallup poll conducted May 1-3 says that while 33 percent of voters said Obama’s association with Wright made them less likely to support him, 38 percent of voters say that McCain’s association with Bush made them less likely to vote for him. In the Wright-Obama case, 64 percent of voters said it didn’t matter, and in the McCain-Bush case, 54 percent said it didn’t matter. To turn this a little on its head, Gallup did find some upside for Bush-McCain as 7 percent of voters said their association made it more likely that they’d vote for McCain, while Wright’s coattails only pulled in 1 percent for Obama.

These sentiments clearly divided along party lines. Fifty percent of Republicans said Wright made it less likely they’d support Obama compared to 19 percent for Democrats. Sixty-four percent of Democrats said McCain’s association with Bush would turn them off compared to 10 percent of Republicans. Twelve percent of Republicans said the Bush association would make it more likely that they’d vote for McCain. Seventy-seven percent of Republicans said it didn’t matter compared to 33 percent of Democrats.

Bill Clinton also generates some Wright-like numbers for Hillary Clinton. A third said Hillary Clinton’s association with him made it less likely that they’d support her compared to 18 percent who said more likely. Forty-eight percent said it didn’t matter. The “less likely” sentiment was predictably harbored more by Republicans (53 percent) than Democrats (16 percent).

Two more states to update in our round-up:

• Michigan: A May 7 survey by Rasmussen Reports shows a toss-up race no matter which Democrat runs against John McCain. McCain has 45 percent to Barack Obama’s 44 percent with 6 percent saying they’d vote for a third-party candidate and 5 percent undecided. Hillary Clinton ties with McCain at 44 percent with 9 percent saying they’d vote for a third-party candidate and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. As far as Obama, the likely nominee, and McCain go, this poll has showed a close race each month since February. McCain is viewed favorably by 54 percent of the state’s voters, Obama by 50 percent and Clinton by 49 percent.

• Oregon: Obama leads McCain in a general election match-up for Oregon by 52 percent to 38 percent while Clinton is ahead by 46 percent to 40 percent in a May 7 survey conducted by Rasmussen Reports.) The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama’s margin represents a gain of 8 points since March in this poll and part of the reason is that McCain gets the backing of only 68 percent of voters in his own party. Obama’s favorability rating is 61 percent, McCain’s is 52 percent and Clinton’s is 47 percent. In mid-April, SurveyUSA had Obama ahead 51 percent to 42 percent while Clinton ran statistically even with McCain.

Although there is much speculation about how the continuing Democratic nomination fight is hurting its general election chances (see today’s Chicago Tribune story), a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll conducted May 1-8 has either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton ahead of John McCain. Clinton leads McCain 47 percent to 38 percent with 15 percent undecided and Obama is ahead 46 percent to 40 percent with 14 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 percent. In both cases, the Obama and Clinton margins have increased compared to this poll’s findings in January and February.

However, these are still figures that show a competitive race and some of the reasons for it are that McCain is showing some strength with groups that normally are a key element of the Democratic candidates – older, white voters where Clinton has been strong, and independents where Obama has flourished.

Today's Gallup daily tracking poll conducted May 5-9 has Clinton over McCain 48 percent to 44 percent and Obama statistically tied with him at 46 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error is 2 points. In the Democratic race, Gallup's May 7-9 data has Obama over Clinton 49 percent to 44 percent with a 3 point margin of error. That breaks a streak of 16 days where the two were statistically tied.

Barack Obama’s big win in North Carolina and Hillary Clinton’s close call in Indiana, followed by growing talk of an end to the Clinton candidacy, did not have much of an impact on the numbers in Gallup’s daily tracking poll. Obama leads by a statistically insignificant 48 percent to 46 percent in Gallup’s May 6-8 survey, in which it said that two-thirds of the interviews were done after the results were known. The margin of error is 3 percent. The “dead heat” streak is now 16 days old, just one day shy of Yankee left-fielder Hideki Matsui’s hitting streak which he extended to 17 days yesterday against the Cleveland Indians.

A Hotline/Diageo poll conducted April 30 - May 3, before Tuesday's primaries, has Obama ahead of Clinton 48 percent to 37 percent with 8 percent undecided. The margin of error is 5 percent. Seventy-seven percent of Democrats woul stand by Obama if he wins the nomination (56 percent enthusiastically and 21 percent because they oppose John McCain). Clinton's numbers are a little different. She also would get the vote of 77 percent of Democrats but only 50 percent expressed enthusiasm while the rest just wanted to vote against the Republicans. Asked if Obama had attacked Clinton unfairly, only 21 percent said yes, but 50 percent said Clinton had attacked Obama unfairly.

In general election match-ups, Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 43 percent with 7 percent undecided, while Clinton edges him 46 percent to 43 percent with 8 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 percent. Ralph Nader gets 5 percent in a Obama-McCain race and 4 percent in a Clinton-McCain race. Obama's favorabilty ratio is 52 percent to 39 percent on the positive side, Clinton's is 49 percent to 47 percent and McCain's is 48 percent to 39 percent.

Congress' job approval rating - or should we say disapproval rating - is 69 percent disapproving of its performance compared to 27 percent who approve.

Rep. Vito Fossella of Staten Island, a rare Republican in the New York City delegation, has accumulated, shall we say, some political baggage lately. He acknowledged yesterday that he had fathered a child with a woman other than his wife and the previous Thursday, he disclosed that he had been stopped by police for driving while intoxicated. That prompted several less-than-veiled hints from leaders in his own party that maybe he should think about his political future, the Democrats now think they can make a run at this traditionally GOP seat, and his home town paper, the Staten Island Advance, said he should resign immediately.

BUT … 61 percent of adults in his 13th congressional district said he should remain in office as opposed to 32 percent who think he should resign, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted May 8. That goes for Republicans (66 percent ) and Democrats (55 percent) alike. The numbers drop off a bit when voters were asked if he should run for re-election, with 53 percent saying he should against 42 percent. Republicans support the idea of another term by 2-to-1 while Democrats are evenly split.

Hillary Clinton is leading Barack Obama by almost 3-to-1 in West Virginia, according to an American Research Group poll conducted May 7-8. Do you need to know the margin of error? O.K., it’s 4 percent. Clinton has 66 percent to Obama’s 23 percent with 6 percent undecided and 5 percent preferring someone else. Among White voters, who make up 93 percent of the sample, Clinton leads 70 percent to 19 percent while Obama has a 91 percent to 3 percent lead among black voters who make up 5 percent of the sample.

Be sure to read Greg Giroux's piece today surveying the remaining contests.

Here are some other polls released earlier this week on the raming primaries:

• West Virginia (May 13): A big lead for Clinton whose margin over Obama was 56 percent to 27 percent with 17 percent undecided, according to a May 4 Rasmussen Reports survey. Clinton enjoys a 72 percent favorability rating to 48 percent for Obama. Seventy-two percent said they’d likely vote for Clinton over McCain in November, but only 56 percent said that for Obama. Fifty-seven percent believe that Obama shares some of the views of his ex-pastor, Jeremiah Wright.

  • Kentucky (May 20): No surprises here either. Clinton has always been a runaway here, and a Rasmussen Reports poll on May 5 showed her ahead of Obama 56 percent to 31 percent with a 4 point margin of error. Seventy-eight percent of Democrats said they’d vote for Clinton over McCain but just 55 percent said they’d do the same for Obama. Fifty-five percent of voters favor a federal gas tax holiday such as Clinton has proposed versus 34 percent opposed.

  • Oregon (May 20): Obama leads Clinton 51 percent to 39 percent in a Rasmussen poll conducted May 1. The margin of error is 3 points. Clinton’s usually consistent lead among senior citizens – who probably helped save her in Indiana – is insignificant here. Both have favorability ratings in the 70s.

The other three primaries are Puerto Rico on June 1, and Montana and South Dakota on June 3.

Jon Stewart himself might have a good laugh over this: the Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism studied the content of The Daily Show for all of 2007 to see how it was different or similar to the mainstream press in terms of what it covered (in its own unique way). After all, Pew noted, its survey on the prominence of best-know journalists in March 2007 found that Stewart tied in the rankings with anchormen Brian Williams, Tom Brokaw, Dan Rather and cable host Anderson Cooper.

So, to answer the question Pew posed for itself – is the Daily Show journalism, satire or just laughs? – it came up with these findings:

• The program’s “clearest focus” is politics, especially Beltway politics which accounted for nearly 47 percent of its air time. “Overall, "The Daily Show" news agenda is quite close to those of cable news talk shows,” Pew said.
• Stewart’s skewering of the press takes up about 8 percent of the program.
• The show focused its satire on Republicans three times as often as Democrats during the period of July 1 through November 1.
• The show avoids, for obvious reasons, major events covered by the conventional media when they have to do with tragedies like the Minneapolis Bridge Collapse or Virginia Tech shootings.

Pew noted that Stewart has always said his show is not journalism, but concluded, that it “aims at more than comedy. In its choice of topics, its use of news footage to deconstruct the manipulations by public figures and its tendency toward pointed satire over playing just for laughs, "The Daily Show" performs a function that is close to journalistic in nature -- getting people to think critically about the public square. In that sense, it is a variation of the tradition of Russell Baker, Art Hoppe, Art Buchwald, H.L. Mencken and other satirists who once graced the pages of American newspapers.”

So, now that you’ve read this far, you might as well watch Stewart’s interview of John McCain from yesterday.

Three states to update:

• Missouri: McCain runs ahead of Obama 47 percent to 41 percent and Hillary Clinton by 45 percent to 43 percent in this swing state, according to a Rasmussen reports survey conducted May 6. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. In late March, Rasmussen had McCain over Obama 53 percent to 38 percent and ahead of Clinton 50 percent to 41 percent. McCain’s favorability rating is 55 percent, Obama’s is 46 percent and Clinton’s is 45 percent. In mid-April, SurveyUSA said Clinton was leading McCain 47 percent to 46 percent and McCain was leading Obama by 50 percent to 42 percent, with a margin of error of 4.3 percent.

• Georgia: McCain leads Barack Obama 53 percent to 39 percent and Hillary Clinton by 48 percent to 37 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 6. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain holds big leads among men voters against either Democrat. McCain is viewed favorably by 59 percent of voters, down 5 points since March. Obama is viewed favorably by 43 percent and Clinton by 39 percent.

• Wisconsin: McCain holds 47 percent to 43 percent leads over either Clinton or Obama, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 5. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain and Obama were a toss-up in Rasmussen’s March poll while McCain led Clinton by 11 points. A SurveyUSA poll conducted April 11-13 had McCain and Clinton tied and Obama ahead by 3 points, within the margin of error. McCain is viewed favorably by 58 percent of voters and unfavorably by 40 percent; Obama has 51 percent favorable, 48 percent unfavorable; and, Clinton is viewed unfavorably by 52 percent compared to the 46 percent who have positive views of her.

Gallup says that a Barack Obama race against John McCain stacks up very similarly to the 2004 contest between John Kerry and George Bush, according to an analysis of its May 1-5 data. Of course, no one probably has to remind Gallup that Kerry lost, so we’re not sure if the pollster is just being the bearer of bad news. But Gallup’s main point was to address the disparity between Obama and Hillary Clinton when it came to the higher level of support she had among white voters in most primaries, and what that said about Obama's strengths and weaknesses.

Gallup said that white voters back McCain over Obama by 53 percent to 37 percent, compared to Bush’s 58 percent to 41 percent margin over Kerry among them, as measured by CNN exit polls in 2004. Gallup goes on to say that the “way Obama stacks up against McCain at this point is similar to the way in which Kerry performed against Bush in 2004 within several key racial, educational, religious, and gender subgroups.”

Today’s Gallup daily tracking poll, conducted May 2-6 for all voters, has both Democrats neck-and-neck with McCain et 46 percent to 45 percent. In the Democratic race, Obama is at 47 percent to Clinton’s 46 percent, with 5 percent expressing no opinion. This survey was conducted May 4-6 with a margin of error of 3 points.

Here’s the outlook for Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in three of the next six (and last!) primaries. These surveys were conducted before the Indiana and North Carolina primaries. The numbers aren’t very surprising but there is some disturbing news for Obama in some in terms of how many Democrats would stick with him in a general election contest again John McCain:

• West Virginia (May 13): A big lead for Clinton whose margin over Obama was 56 percent to 27 percent with 17 percent undecided, according to a May 4 Rasmussen Reports survey. Clinton enjoys a 72 percent favorability rating to 48 percent for Obama. Seventy-two percent said they’d likely vote for Clinton over McCain in November, but only 56 percent said that for Obama. Fifty-seven percent believe that Obama shares some of the views of his ex-pastor, Jeremiah Wright.

• Kentucky (May 20): No surprises here either. Clinton has always been a runaway here, and a Rasmussen Reports poll on May 5 showed her ahead of Obama 56 percent to 31 percent with a 4 point margin of error. Seventy-eight percent of Democrats said they’d vote for Clinton over McCain but just 55 percent said they’d do the same for Obama. Fifty-five percent of voters favor a federal gas tax holiday such as Clinton has proposed versus 34 percent opposed.

• Oregon (May 20): Obama leads Clinton 51 percent to 39 percent in a Rasmussen poll conducted May 1. The margin of error is 3 points. Clinton’s usually consistent lead among senior citizens – who probably helped save her in Indiana – is insignificant here. Both have favorability ratings in the 70s.

The other three primaries are Puerto Rico on June 1, and Montana and South Dakota on June 3.

The voters have spoken and the REAL results are Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton in North Carolina by 56 percent to 42 percent and Clinton barely edging Obama in Indiana by 51 percent to 49 percent. Here's what the polls closest to election day predicted:

North Carolina:

• Zogby: Obama 51 percent, Clinton 37 percent.
• Public Policy Polling: Obama 53, Clinton 43
• American Research Group: Obama 50, Clinton 42
• SurveyUSA: Obama 50, Clinton 45
• InsiderAdvantage: Obama 48, Clinton 45

Indiana:

• Zogby: Obama 45 percent, Clinton 43 percent.
• Suffolk University: Clinton 49, Obama 43
• Public Policy Polling: Clinton 51, Obama 46
• American Research Group:Clinton 53, Obama 45
• SurveyUSA: Clinton 54, Obama 42

Here are the headlines from the early exit polls:

Fox News:

• Forty-eight percent of Indiana voters said the controversy over Obama’s ex-pastor, Jeremiah Wright was very or somewhat important to their decision, and of these, 69 percent voted for Clinton.
• In North Carolina, 48 percent said the Wright furor was somewhat or very important, and 62 percent of these backed Clinton.
• Sixty-five percent of Indianans said the economy was the top issue for them, and they favored Clinton 54 percent to 45 percent. In North Carolina, 60 percent cited the economy as the top issue but they broke for Obama by 62 percent to 36 percent.
• Sixty-five percent of white voters with no college degree in Indiana and 67 percent in North Carolina.
• Sixty-six percent of Indiana voters considered Obama honest and trustworthy compared to 54 percent for Clinton.

CNN: Indiana and North Carolina

• In Indiana, half of Hillary Clinton’s supporters would not vote for Barack Obama over John McCain. A third would support McCain and just under one-fifth would not vote at all. Forty-eight percent would back Obama.
• In North Carolina, 38 percent of Clinton supporters said they’d choose McCain over Obama and 12 percent said they wouldn’t vote at all. Forty-five percent would back Obama.
• As for Obama supporters, 59 percent of Hoosiers said they’d vote for Clinton if she were the nominee and 70 percent of North Carolina Democrats would back her.
• In Indiana, voters considered Obama honest and trustworthy 66 percent to 33 percent, while they said that of Clinton by a lesser 54 percent to 45 percent.
• Two-thirds of Indiana voters said the economy was their top issue and they divided fairly evenly between Obama and Clinton in terms who they thought was the best choice to improve it. Eighty-one percent of North Carolinians said the economic downturn has affected them and they thought Obama better suited to deal with the economy by 52 percent to 42 percent. Eighteen percent of Indiana voters cited Iraq as the top issue (compared to two-thirds who named the economy) and they favored Obama 54 percent to 46 percent.
• Fifty-one percent of Indiana voters said the ability to bring change was the most important candidate characteristic for them, and they favored Obama 70 percent to 30 percent. Experience was Number Two at 23 percent and Clinton ran away with these voters 96 percent to 3 percent.
• Eighteen percent of Indiana voters made up their mind in the last 3 days with the rest deciding before that.
• Who attacked who unfairly? In Indiana. a quarter of Democrats said only Clinton did versus 5 percent who believed that of Obama and 39 percent said both.

ABC News:

• Obama won 91 percent of black voters in North Carolina, who account for about one-third of the total vote. To offset that, Clinton needed 70 percent of the white vote but got 58 percent.

New York Times:

• Roughly three-quarters of voters in both primary states had made up their minds on who to support before the last week – something that did not square

Associated Press

• Two-thirds of working class white voters were supporting Clinton.

Not surprisingly, more Clinton than Obama supporters favor the race continuing. Sixty-nine percent of those who want Clinton to be the nominee say they want her to stay in the race, while 49 percent of Obama backers say they want her to stay in.

But they're not willing for it to last all the way to the convention. Forty-five percent wanted the undeclared superdelegates to commit to a candidate after all the primaries and caucuses (last one is June 3), while 24 percent want the superdelegate endorsements after today's Indiana and North Carolina primaries. Twenty-six percent said the convention was the best place for superdelegates to make up their minds. Also not surprisingly, more Clinton supporters were eager for superdelegate decisions to be made as late as the convention than Obama supporters (32 to 16 percent).

The pollsters say: "The results suggest that a majority of Democrats are willing to allow the primary and caucus schedule to play out. That is somewhat at odds with earlier Gallup polling showing that the party rank-and-file believes the ongoing campaign is doing more harm than good to the Democrats' chances of winning the November election." That earlier survey was done one week before this one.

The survey has a 5 percent margin of error.

Today's pair of Zogby polls hold good news for Barack Obama, showing him well ahead in North Carolina, with 51 percent support compared to Hillary Rodham Clinton's 37 percent. Twelve percent were undecided or choosing someone else. The telephone survey was done May 3-4. Obama gained 3 points while Clinton lost 3 from the previous survey, just one day earlier.

In Indiana, Zogby says, "the race is clear as mud, as Obama holds a statistically insignificant lead of two points, winning 45% support to Clinton’s 43% support, with 12% either undecided or favoring someone else."

As usual, in North Carolina Obama has strong support among African Americans (79 percent) while Clinton holds the majority among whites (52 percent).

The margin of error for both polls was +/- 3.9 percent.

And, for what it's worth, Suffolk University says the "Indiana bellwether area of Delaware County points to Hillary Clinton to win." Clinton leads there 44 percent to 37 percent, according to its Monday night survey.

CQ Politics has done special analyses of how the contest for delegates is going in each of tomorrow's primaries, see Slim Obama Victory in N.C. Delegates Predicted and Close Delegate Split Expected in Indiana.

Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 47 percent to 40 percent in an AP-Ipsos poll conducted April 30 – May 4. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. In general election match-ups, Clinton leads John McCain 47 percent to 42 percent with 8 percent saying neither and Obama leads him 46 percent to 42 percent with 9 percent saying neither. The margin of error is 3.1 percent.

Most polls in North Carolina and Indiana, which vote Tuesday, show Barack Obama ahead of Hillary Clinton in North Carolina by a diminished margin compared to the big double-digit leads where he started out, and Clinton leading in most Indiana polls, also by less than where she was earlier. Check out the different takes on the South Carolina race between Public Policy Polling and InsiderAdvantage.

But the two contests that are both shaping up as close is the fight for actual delegates. For special CQ Politics analyses of how the contest for delegates is going in each of tomorrow's primaries. see Slim Obama Victory in N.C. Delegates Predicted and Close Delegate Split Expected in Indiana.

Here are the polls on both states that have been released so far today:

Indiana

• Public Policy Polling: Clinton is leading Obama 51 percent to 46 percent in a survey conducted May 3-4. The margin of error is 3.4 percent. She has lost a point since last week as Obama shored up his support with black voters, with his margin over Clinton rising 16 points among them. The open primary also helps him since he trails Clinton by 10 points among Democrats but leads her 48 percent to 45 percent among Republicans and 52 percent to 39 percent among unaffiliated voters.

• SurveyUSA: Clinton leads Obama 54 percent to 42 percent in this poll conducted May 2-4. The margin of error is 3.8 percent. She runs evenly with Obama among males but runs away from him among women, 60 percent to 38 percent. She trumps Obama in every age bracket except voters under 34. Her lead among white voters (87 percent of the sample) is 58 percent to 39 percent while Obama’s advantage among black voters (10 percent of the sample) is 77 percent to 21 percent. Fifty-three percent of voters say the economy is the top issue and they support Clinton 57 percent to 40 percent. On Iraq, named by 14 percent of voters, Obama is ahead 56 percent to 42 percent.

• Suffolk University: Clinton leads Obama 49 percent to 43 percent among likely Democratic primary voters in Indiana with 6 percent undecided, according to a Suffolk University poll conducted May3-4. The margin of error is 4 percent. A striking 38 percent of voters said they’d defect to John McCain in November if their choice of the nomination doesn’t win. Despite Clinton’s leads, Obama’s favorability rating was higher with 58 percent viewing him favorably versus 29 percent, while Clinton’s was 53 percent compared to 36 percent. Thirty-five percent of voters said they believed Obama would be the next president, 28 percent said Clinton and 25 percent named McCain.

• Zogby:This daily tracking poll, which has shown the Indiana race to be tighter than other surveys, says Obama leads 44 percent to 42 percent with eight percent undecided and 7 percent preferring someone else. The poll was conducted May 3-4 and has a margin of error of 4 percent.

• American Research Group: Clinton leads 53 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent undecided in a poll conducted May 2-4. The margin of error is 4 percent. Obama has a 4 point lead among men compared to Clinton’s 18 point lead among women. Clinton leads among white voters (84 percent of the sample) by 60 percent to 38 percent, while Obama leads by 90 percent to 8 percent among black voters (12 percent of the sample).

North Carolina

• SurveyUSA: Obama leads 50 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent undecided in this poll conducted May 2-4. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. SurveyUSA says “with 25% of votes already cast, Barack Obama has no breathing room in his hope to defeat Hillary Clinton in popular votes.”

• Zogby: Obama is ahead of Clinton 48 percent to 40 percent, with 8 percent undecided and 5 percent preferring someone else. The poll was conducted during the same period as Indiana with the same margin of error. It's about the same result of the last three Zogby daily polls, but contrasts to the 16 point lead Obama had in the April 30- May 1 survey.

• American Research Group: Obama leads 50 percent to 42 percent with 4 percent undecided and 4 percent preferring someone else. The poll was conducted May 2-4 and has a 4 point margin of error. At the end of March, Obama had a 13 point lead but his margins since then have been between 8 and 10 points. Clinton has a big lead among men and is statistically tied with Clinton among women. Clinton leads Obama 62 percent to 27 percent among white voters ( 60 percent of the sample) and Obama leads among black voters 88 percent to 9 percent (36 percent of the sample).

• Public Policy Polling: Obama has a 53 percent to 43 percent lead in a survey conducted May 3-4. the margin of error is 3.3 percent. PPP says this is the smallest lead Obama has had in its poll in six weeks, but adds, “At the end of the day North Carolina's demographics make it nearly impossible for Hillary Clinton to do much better than a ten point loss here.” The pollster estimates 35 percent of the turnout will be black voters and Obama’s 84 percent to 11 percent advantage among them will blunt Clinton’s 60 percent to 34 percent margin among whites.

• Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion: Someone has to be the contrarian and this pollster is it. In this survey Obama leads by only 48 percent to 45 percent with 7 percent undecided, with the margin of error at 3 percent. The poll was conducted May 4. Taking the flip-side of PPP’s analysis, InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery says: “Clinton has increased her lead among white voters to 58% - very close to the 60% plus level needed to pull off a victory…(but) African-American voters are not quite as solid with Obama as they have been, at least based on previous exit polls.”

Democrats nationally who have followed the controversy over Barack Obama’s ex-pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, say by 65 percent to 32 percent that Obama’s relationship to him is not meaningful to the campaign although, as you might guess, Republicans and supporters of Hillary Clinton say not-so-fast, according to a Gallup poll conducted May 1-3. Clinton supporters call the subject meaningful by 51 percent to 48 percent, compared to 85 percent of Obama supporters who do not find it meaningful. Republicans say it is meaningful by 58 percent to 36 percent. However, Clinton supporters do acknowledge – by a 66 percent to 28 percent margin – that Obama totally disagrees with Wright’s views, as do Obama supporters by 89 percent to 7 percent. Two-thirds of Clinton supporters say Obama has handled the controversy well. And about the same number of Clinton backers said it would not be a factor in their decisions whether to vote for him if he becomes the nominee.

Three-quarters of all Democrats have a favorable view of Obama, a number that drops to 55 percent among supporters of Clinton.

You can weigh these findings along with today’s USA Today/Gallup poll and Sunday’s New York Times/CBS News survey on the subject.

Hillary Clinton is leading Barack Obama 51 percent to 44 percent in a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted May 1-3. The margin of error is 5 percent. USA Today’s take on its results is that Obama has been significantly damaged by the Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy raising questions among some voters about his “values, credibility and electability.” Obama had led by 10 points in this poll before the re-emergence of the Wright issue.

Gallup's own daily tracking poll has Obama ahead of Clinton 50 percent to 45 percent in its survey of May 2-4. The margin of error is 3 points.

The conclusion drawn by the USA Today/Gallup poll on the impact of Wright is different than the view taken yesterday by the New York Times/CBS News poll which said that most Americans said the furor has not affected their view of Obama and approved of the way he has handled the matter, although the Times did put a number of caveats on that finding. It did agree with a Rasmussen Reports finding from last week that many Americans believe that Obama’s latest denunciation of Wright was for political reasons rather than sincere disagreement.

A New York Times/CBS News poll, conducted after Barack Obama’s denunciation on Tuesday of his former pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, finds that a majority of Americans say the controversy has not affected their opinion of Obama, and approved of the way he has handled it. (Of course, what polls can't take into account is what good Obama might have been able to do for himself message-wise if the Wright story hadn't so dominated the news).

While saying the Wright furor had not affected their opinion, nearly half the voters, including a substantial number of Democrats, said he had repudiated Wright mainly for political reasons, mirroring a similar result in a recent Rasmussen Reports poll. The Times cautioned that because the survey, conducted May 1-3, had a “relatively small number of Democrats” and was nationally-based, it might not reflect widespread sentiments within the party or reflect what impact the Wright story has had in North Carolina and Indiana, which have primaries on Tuesday. Just to give you the actual size of the sample, it included 601 registered voters of whom 283 were Democratic primary voters and 148 were Republican primary voters. The margin of error is 6 percent for those who voted in Democratic primaries and 4 percent for all voters.

Three-quarters of all voters say the Wright issue has made no difference in their view of Obama, a result about the same among Democrats only. Sixty percent of all voters and 68 percent of Democratic primary voters approve the way he has handled the controversy. But on the question of whether Obama’s response was politically motivated or because he really disagreed with Wright, 47 percent of all voters said political versus 34 percent, and 43 percent of Democrats also said political, versus 40 percent.

Barack Obama maintains his 9 point lead over Hillary Clinton in Zogby’s daily tracking poll of North Carolina and has edged ahead of Clinton in Indiana, although by a statistically insignificant margin. Obama leads Clinton 48 percent to 39 percent in North Carolina with 8 percent undecided and 5 percent wanting “someone else.” The margin of error is 4.1 percent. His North Carolina lead is a far cry from his double-digit days in April. In Indiana, Obama leads 43 percent to 41 percent, a one point gain for Obama since the previous survey, with 8 percent undecided and 8 percent preferring someone else. The margin of error here is also 4.1 percent. The polls were conducted May 2-3.

Here’s our latest round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups, pitting Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama against John McCain.

And this is a great a site to visit if you want to see an interactive map that shows how those the states are tilting, although some of its numbers may differ from what you read here:

New to our round-up:

• Indiana: Although this is a solid “red” state in presidential elections, a poll by the Mike Downs Center on Indiana Politics show both Clinton and Obama are competitive with McCain. She leads 48 percent to 45 percent and Obama leads 48 percent to 47 percent. The margin of error is 2.8 percent.

These three swing state polls were conducted by Quinnipiac University April 23-29:

• Florida: Clinton leads McCain 49 percent to 41 percent while McCain edges Obama 44 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is 2.6 percent. Clinton ties McCain among white working class voters at 45 percent each, while McCain beats Obama in this group 51 percent to 34 percent.

• Ohio: Clinton leads McCain 48 percent to 38 percent, while McCain is ahead of Obama by 43 percent to 42 percent. The margin of error is 2.9 percent. Clinton leads McCain among white working class voters 46 percent to 40 percent while McCain leads Obama 54 percent to 34 percent.

• Pennsylvania: Clinton leads McCain 51 percent to 37 percent and Obama bests him 47 percent to 38 percent. The margin of error is 2.5 percent. Clinton leads McCain among white working class voters 48 percent to 40 percent while McCain leads Obama 45 percent to 38 percent.

Barack Obama is leading Hillary Clinton 51 percent to 39 percent in Oregon which holds its primary May 20, according to a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 1. The margin of error is 3 percent. Rasmussen gives Obama twice the lead reported yesterday in a SurveyUSA poll. On the inevitable question about the Rev. Jeremiah Wright effect, three-quarters of Oregon Democrats say they have been following the story. Forty-four percent say they believe Obama was surprised by Wright’s recent series of public statements, and 34 percent believed Obama issued his latest denunciation out of political expediency, a result that differs from Rasmussen’s national poll, which found that a majority of voters thought Obama’s motives were political, not principled.

Hillary Clinton has drawn to within single digits of Barack Obama in North Carolina where he had earlier on been enjoying large leads, while the two are running head-to-head in Indiana where Clinton had been the clear early frontrunner, says a Zogby poll conducted May 1-2.

In North Carolina, Obama leads 46 percent to 37 percent with 9 percent “not sure” and 8 percent wanting “someone else.” The margin of error is 4 percent. Obama’s lead in a April 30-May 1 survey had been 50 percent to 34 percent. Clinton was gaining among white voters among whom she had already led, and picking up some more support among black voters, although they still overwhelmingly back Obama.

In Indiana, Obama edges Clinton 43 percent to 42 percent, well within the 4 point margin of error. Eight percent are undecided and 7 percent would like someone else.

Eleven percent of Obama supporters in Indiana and 13 percent in North Carolina said they were less likely to support him because of the controversy over his former pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

In both states taken together, 19 percent of Democrats said they would defect to John McCain if Obama won the nomination and 17 percent said they’d back McCain if Clinton won. In North Carolina yesterday, both candidates made a point of saying they would support the other if their own campaigns fell short.

Compare today's Zogby to the polls in each state from yesterday.

North Carolina:

• Zogby (Friday): Obama is leading Clinton by 50 percent to 34 percent with 8 percent not sure and 8 percent wanting someone else. Margin of error was 3.9 percent
• American Research Group: Obama ahead 52 percent to 41 percent with 5 percent undecided and 2 percent wanting someone else. Margin of error was 4 percent.
• Rasmussen Reports: Obama ahead of Clinton 49 percent to 40 percent. Margin of error was 4 percent.
• Mason-Dixon: Obama led Clinton 49 percent to 42 percent with 9 percent undecided in a poll conducted April 28-29. The margin of error was 5 percent.

Indiana:

• Mike Downs Center: Clinton leads Obama 52 percent to 45 percent. Margin of error is 3.8 percent.
• American Research Group: Clinton ahead 53 percent to 44 percent with 3 percent undecided and a 4 point margin of error.
• Zogby (Friday):Clinton and Obama are tied at 42 percent each with 9 percent not sure and 7 percent pining for someone else. The margin of error is 3.8 percent.

Republicans are as divided as Democrats when it comes to who they would like to see as the Democratic nominee, according to a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted April 18-20. Forty-eight percent prefer Hillary Clinton to 44 percent for Barack Obama and 8 percent expressing no opinion. The margin of error is 5 percent.

In terms of motivation, about a quarter of Republicans would like to see Clinton nominated because they are more worried about Obama getting into the Oval Office. Fifteen percent choose Clinton because they believe John McCain has a better chance of beating her. One-third of those choosing Obama do so because they don’t want Clinton as President. Seven percent say it is because McCain has a better chance against Obama.

Meanwhile, the Gallup daily tracking poll gives McCain a 6 point lead over Obama based on a survey conducted April 27-May 1. This is the largest lead McCain has had over either Democrat since Gallup began its general election tracking. The margin of error is 2 percent. McCain leads Obama 48 percent to 42 percent but is statistically tied with Clinton, edging her 46 percent to 45 percent.

Three polls out today have Barack Obama ahead of Hillary Clinton by between 9 and 16 points in North Carolina, which votes next Tuesday. There’s also a new wave of polls today from Indiana, which also votes Tuesday, that you can find here in Poll Tracker. Those surveys and other recent ones from Indiana are more of a mixed bag.

Obama is leading Clinton by 50 percent to 34 percent with 8 percent not sure and 8 percent wanting someone else, according to a Zogby poll conducted April 30-May.1 The margin of error is 3.9 percent. Fifteen percent of voters said they were less likely to support Obama because of the controversy over his ex-pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

American Research Group has Obama ahead 52 percent to 41 percent with 5 percent undecided and 2 percent wanting someone else. The poll was conducted April 30-May 1 and has a 4 point margin of error. Clinton leads 55 percent to 37 percent among white voters (62 percent of the sample) and Obama is ahead among black voters 85 percent to 15 percent (34 percent of the sample.

Rasmussen Reports puts Obama ahead of Clinton 49 percent to 40 percent in its survey conducted May 1. The margin of error is 4 points. Obama had a 14 point lead in this poll a month ago. Eighty percent of voters said they had followed the controversy over Obama's former pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, and 43 percent said they believed Obama decided to denounce him Tuesday because he was outraged while 40 percent ascribed it to political convenience, which was a much kinder verdict than Rasmussen found when it asked this question in a national poll. Not surprisingly, 70 percent of Clinton supporters said the motive was political expediency and 69 percent of Obama backers said it was outrage on Obama's part. Forty percent said they believe it was somewhat likely that Obama shared Wright's views.

Compare this to other recent North Carolina polls:

• Research 2000: Obama leads 51 percent to 44 percent with 3 percent undecided. Conducted April 29-30.
• InsiderAdvantage: Clinton ahead by 44 percent to 42 percent with 14 percent undecided and a 3.8 percent margin of error. The poll was conducted April 29.

Most voters believe that Barack Obama denounced his ex-pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, on Tuesday more out of political expediency than principle. In a survey conducted April 30-May 1, Rasmussen Reports said 58 percent said Obama’s motivation was political convenience compared to 30 percent who said it was because he was outraged. Fifty-two percent said they did not believe Obama was surprised by the remarks that Wright recently made at a much-covered appearance at the National Press Club compared to 33 percent who said they thought Obama was surprised. Fifty-six percent said it was at least somewhat likely that Obama “shares some of Pastor Wright’s controversial views about the United States.” Black voters said they disagreed with Wright’s views by 64 percent to 12 percent.

Three new polls in Indiana - two showing Hillary Clinton ahead of Barack Obama and the other saying the race is a tie - add to the conflicting results from surveys released over the last week.

Clinton leads Obama 52 percent to 45 percent in a poll of registered Democrats likely to vote in Tuesday’s primary, according to the Mike Downs Center on Indiana Politics. The margin of error is 3.8 percent. The poll was conducted April 28-30 and has a margin of error of 3.8 percent. A previous poll in mid-April had Obama ahead by 5 points. The poll said Clinton had “flipped” the earlier advantage held by Obama among independents. She now leads 56 percent to 38 percent among “pure” independents, 54 percent to 46 percent among Republican-leaning independents and she has drawn even with Obama among Democratic-leaning independents at 47 percent.

Half of Indiana voters said the economy was the top issue and they broke 56 percent to 42 percent in favor of Clinton. Of the 13 percent who singled out Iraq, Obama led 52 percent to 47 percent, but that was down from his 17 point margin in mid-April.

In a general election match-up, even though Indiana is a solid “red” state in presidential elections, both Clinton and Obama are competitive with John McCain. She leads 48 percent to 45 percent and Obama leads 48 percent to 47 percent. The margin of error is 2.8 percent.

American Research Group, in a poll conducted April 30-May 1, shows Clinton ahead 53 percent to 44 percent with 3 percent undecided and a 4 point margin of error. Clinton leads 59 percent to 37 percent among white voters (84 percent of the sample) while Obama leads 87 percent to 9 percent among black voters (12 percent of the sample).

Breaking from today's pack, a Zogby poll of Indiana, conducted April 30-May 1, says Clinton and Obama are tied at 42 percent each with 9 percent not sure and 7 percent pining for someone else. The margin of error is 3.8 percent.

Looking ahead to Oregon’s May 20 primary, SurveyUSA shows Barack Obama ahead of Hillary Clinton by 50 percent to 44 percent with 4 percent undecided. The poll was conducted April 28-30 and has a margin of error of 3.9 percent. Obama had led by 10 points three weeks ago. Obama has a big lead among men voters while he and Clinton are relatively close among female voters. For the 36 percent of voters who called the economy the top issue, Clinton leads 49 percent to 46 percent, but for the 23 percent who cite Iraq, Obama is favored 61 percent to 36 percent. Although Clinton usually scores big margins among voters who are most concerned about health care, she is statistically tied with Obama on that issue leading him 51 percent to 38 percent. Seventeen percent of voters named that issue as the top one.

The other state voting May 20 is Kentucky where a previous poll showed a big Clinton lead.

Barack Obama is leading Hillary Clinton by 51 percent to 44 percent in North Carolina with 3 percent undecided, according to a Research 2000 poll conducted April 29-30. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. An InsiderAdvantage poll earlier today had Clinton coming back from a double-digit deficit to edge Obama 44 percent to 42 percent, within the 3.8 percent margin of error. But that poll had a much large undecided bloc at 14 percent.

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are in a statistical tie in the race for the Democratic nomination, according to a CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted April 28-30. Obama leads among registered Democrats 46 percent to 45 percent with a margin of error of 4.5 percent. Obama had led by 7 points in this poll in mid-March, but while he has dropped 6 points, Clinton has not gained ground. And the poll said 6 percent “volunteer” that they want neither to be the nominee.

So now, the host of major news organizations (plus Pew Research) that regularly do polls have weighed in and this is how CNN compares to the others:

• New York Times/CBS News: Obama led 46 percent to 38 percent with 16 percent undecided among Democrats who have voted in a primary or plan to. Margin of error was 5 percent. Among all registered Democrats, they are essentially tied.
• Wall Street Journal/NBC News:Obama leads among all Democrats 46 percent to 43 percent with 7 percent undecided. Margin of error was 3.1 percent.
• Fox News/Opinion Dynamics: Clinton led 44 percent to 41 percent with 8 percent saying “neither” and 7 percent “don’t know.” Margin of error was 5 percent.
• Pew Research: Obama led 47 percent to 45 percent with a 5 point margin of error.
• Gallup Daily Tracking Poll: Clinton over Obama 49 percent to 45 percent with a 3 point margin of error.

Barack Obama has lost his lead over Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic nomination and a smaller percentage of Democrats describe him in favorable terms, according to a new Pew Research poll conducted April 23-27. Obama's 10 point lead in this poll in March is now 47 percent to 45 percent, with a 5 point margin of error.

The Pew survey falls in line with others in recent days that show the difficulties that Obama is having among white voters, particularly white working class voters, after a month in which much campaign news was dominated by the controversy over his former pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, and Obama’s “bitter” reference about small town Americans who had been suffering economically. Clinton led among white voters in April 54 percent to 38 percent, compared to a 44 percent tie with Obama in March. Among whites with educations of high school or less, she led Obama 65 percent to 25 percent, a gain of 15 points over March, and among whites earning less than $50,000 a year, she led 58 percent to 34 percent, a jump of 11 points compared to a month earlier.

The latest poll from Indiana shows Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama 48 percent to 38 percent with a 3.3 percent margin of error. However, the survey, conducted April 25-29 for 6News in Indianapolis shows 14 percent of voters still undecided. The poll was conducted as the controversy over Rev. Jeremiah Wright erupted again, and pollster Jeff Lewis said, "In that period of time, Obama's lead among men went from a 20 point lead on Friday … to a four point lead for Sen. Clinton."

Three other polls this week had results showing Clinton ahead by 8, by 5 and tied.

Hillary Clinton runs better than Barack Obama in general election-match-ups against John McCain in three swing states thanks to her stronger base of support among white working class voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted April 23-29:

• Florida: Clinton leads McCain 49 percent to 41 percent while McCain edges Obama 44 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is 2.6 percent. Clinton ties McCain among white working class voters at 45 percent each, while McCain beats Obama in this group 51 percent to 34 percent.

• Ohio: Clinton leads McCain 48 percent to 38 percent, while McCain is ahead of Obama by 43 percent to 42 percent. The margin of error is 2.9 percent. Clinton leads McCain among white working class voters 46 percent to 40 percent while McCain leads Obama 54 percent to 34 percent.

• Pennsylvania: Clinton leads McCain 51 percent to 37 percent and Obama bests him 47 percent to 38 percent. The margin of error is 2.5 percent. Clinton leads McCain among white working class voters 48 percent to 40 percent while McCain leads Obama 45 percent to 38 percent.

Quinnipiac’s Peter Brown says, "There is no indication that Obama's problems with white working class Democrats in the Ohio and Pennsylvania primaries have gone away," and adds: "If the super delegates are looking at electability, these results could be a shot in the arm for Sen. Clinton … No one has won the White House since 1960 without carrying two of these three swing states.”

A CBS News/New York Times poll yesterday found blue collar workers support Clinton 61 percent to 23 percent over Obama.

There’s been a lot of reporting on Obama’s challenge with white working class voters in recent days that’s worth checking out:

• Obama Walks Fine Line in Quest for White Votes Boston Globe
• Eyes on Blue Collar Voters, Obama Shifts Style New York Times
• Landing the White Whale Washington Post

New polls from Indiana and North Carolina, which vote on Tuesday, show tightening races in those states where, at one time, Obama had double-digit leads in one and Clinton in the other.

An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted April 29 says that Hillary Clinton has overcome a onetime double-digit deficit and now leads Barack Obama in North Carolina by 44 percent to 42 percent with 14 percent undecided. The lead is within the poll’s 3.8 percent margin of error. Most of the change was due to shifts among white voters over 45. However, InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery says, that because his poll usually does not pick up what he calls “the eventual compression of black voters” for Obama just before election day, “I believe when all is said and done, Obama will likely carry North Carolina; or if he loses the race, it will be by just a few points.” Polls on Tuesday had Obama’s lead at 14 and 5 points.

Stories today in the Charlotte Observer and Raleigh News & Observer explore the Wright factor in the state.

In Indiana, Rasmussen Reports has Clinton ahead of Obama 46 percent to 41 percent with another big undecided bloc at 13 percent. The poll was conducted April 29 and has a margin of error of 5 points. Clinton is viewed favorably by 73 percent of Indiana Democrats and Obama by 70 percent. A Gauge Market Research and Howey Politics Indiana poll yesterday had this race tied and Public Policy Polling on Tuesday had Clinton ahead by 8.

While you're here, check out the major national polls released yesterday:

• NBC News/Wall Street Journal
• CBS News/New York Times
• Fox News/Opinion Dynamics