Since the margin of error for the poll is +/- 3 percent, that puts the candidates in a statistical dead heat. Yesterday's daily tracking poll had at Obama at 50 percent and Clinton at 44.

The survey was conducted May 13-15. During that time, Clinton won the West Virginia primary and John Edwards endorsed Barack Obama.

Gallup notes that the "slight narrowing of the race ... is typical of the way the contest has gone over the past several months, with neither candidate able to maintain a significant lead among national Democratic voters for very long."

There has been a small change in hypothetical match-ups with Republican John McCain. McCain is ahead of Obama, 47-45 percent among registered voters (the two were tied at 45 yesterday). With the margin of error at +/- 2 percent, that also puts them in a statistical tie. But against Clinton, McCain fares signficantly worse: Clinton has a 3 point lead 48 - 45 percent.

In Kentucky, Clinton leads Obama 65 to 29 percent. She trumps him in support from men (56 -38 percent) as well as women (72-21) and regardless of age. Obama leads Clinton among African American voters (91-7), who make up 11 percent of this electorate.

In Oregon, Obama's lead is much narrower: 50 to 45 percent. He has more white voter support (51-44) and among those 18 to 49 years old (55-38). But Clinton has more support from women (51-44) and Hispanic voters (50-46). American Research Group says Hispanics are 6 percent of the vote.

The margin of error for each poll is +/- 4 percent and the surveys were conducted May 14-15.

In a SurveyUSA poll of likely New Mexican voters, Democrat Tom Udall would easily defeat either Republican running for the seat, Heather Wilson (61-35 percent) or Steven Pearce (60-36 percent). The margin of error was +/- 2.3 percent.

Wilson and Pearce are in a tight race for the Republican nomination, which is currently held by retiring Sen. Pete V. Domenici. The poll shows them almost tied, with Pearce having the slight edge over Wilson (49-46 percent). The primary is June 3.

The margin of error on the Republican-only poll was +/- 4.8 percent. The poll was conducted May 12-14.

Udall, Wilson and Pearce gave up their House seats to run for the Senate.

Clinton does have a slim head-to-head lead over McCain, leading him 48 to 45 percent. Obama is tied with John McCain at 45 percent when voters are asked about that November general election match-up.

The Democratic nomination results are based on data from May 12-14, and the margin of error is ±3 percentage points. The general election results are based on data from May 10-14. For results based on this sample of 4,372 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

Here are the latest updates to our state-by-state general election match-ups, all from Rasmussen Reports. All had a margin of error of 4.5 percent.

• Iowa: Barack Obama leads John McCain 44 percent to 42 percent with 8 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent not sure in a survey conducted May 12. McCain edges Clinton 45 percent to 42 percent with 9 percent preferring other and 4 percent not sure. The figures for Obama and McCain haven't shown much movement since February. Fifty-three percent of voters view Obama favorably compared to 51 percent for McCain, but that represents a 7 point drop for the Republican.

• Arkansas: McCain leads Obama 53 percent to 37 percent, while Clinton bests McCain 53 percent to 39 percent in the state where she was First Lady. McCain's margin over Obama is due to 92 percent support among fellow Republicans, 38 percent support from Democrats and 24 percent from unaffiliated voters. Obama's favorability rating here is only 38 percent. McCain's is 57 percent and Clinton's is 60 percent.

• Washington state: Obama leads McCain 51 percent to 40 percent, compared to the 5 point lead he held in the previous poll. Obama's favorability rating is 57 percent, while McCain's is 49 percent - which, as in Iowa, is a 7 point drop for him. A SurveyUSA poll conducted May 12 had Obama ahead 54 to 42 percent with a 3.9 percent margin of error. Clinton leads McCain by 49 percent to 45 percent. Obama runs far ahead of McCain on the issues of the economy, environment, health care and Iraq while McCain leads Obama by a wide margin on the issues of terrorism and immigration.

And the stability - and negativity - persist when Americans were asked about the future. Eighty-six percent of respondents thought economic conditions were getting worse, while just 10 percent thought they were getting better.

There were no stark differences among groups, but Gallup does note: "Americans living in high-income households, Republicans, and residents of the Southwest and Rocky Mountain states are a bit more likely to have a positive economic outlook than are others; but even the vast majority of these groups are negative about the economy." As an example: 15 percent of Republicans were upbeat, compared to just 3 percent of Democrats.

The nationwide poll was conducted May 1-13 and the margin of error was +/- 1 percent.

McCain is significantly more popular than Hillary Rodham Clinton among independents, 46 to 41 percent.

In today's Quinnipiac Poll, Obama fared much better among independents, besting McCain 48 to 37 percent.

Gallup cautions against over-interpreting the impact of independents' preferences: "Independents are usually one of the most closely watched swing voter groups each presidential election. However, contrary to expectations, they are not always decisive, in part because turnout among independents is usually lower than it is among those with a political party affiliation."

The pollsters go on to note that George W. Bush in 2004, Al Gore in 2000, Jimmy Carter in 1976, and John F. Kennedy in 1960 all won the popular vote "despite losing among independents."

The gap was wider for independent voters, thought to be McCain's strength. They picked Obama over McCain, 48-37 percent. But when the matchup was with Clinton, the independents preferred neither, each getting 41 percent.

Democrats overwhelmingly (60-33) favored an Obama-Clinton ticket over any other matchup. At the same time, Democrats continue to want Clinton to stay in the race (63-34).

"Sen. Hillary Clinton's never-say-die campaign still has lots of fans. Just as in delegates, states, money, you-name-it, Obama leads her in national support - but only by a bit," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

The telephone survey was conducted May 8-12, after the Indiana and North Carolina primaries and before the West Virginia primary.

Gallup has tracked congressional approval for 34 years, and a national poll released today shows a record-tying low approval rating and close to a record disapproval score. In fact, the 18 percent approval rating for Congress is more than ten percentage points lower than President Bush’s current approval rating of 29 percent (which is only one point higher than his all-time low from April and early May of this year).

Democratic-voter approval had been as high as 44 percent at the start of the Democratically controlled Congress last January and is now down to 16 percent, nearly one-third of that score. Republicans did not lag behind the Democrats too much in approving the new Congress for most of the first year of the 110th, and now give a 20 percent congressional approval rating.

The partisan divide is much more noticable in the presidential support ratings. While a 66 percent presidential approval rating by Republicans is lower than it had been in previous years, it is substantially higher than his score among Democrats — only 7 percent of Democrats approve of the president’s current performance.

The poll is based on interviews with 1,017 adults conducted May 8-11, and the margin of error is ±3 percentage points.

Despite news of superdelegate pickups by Barack Obama and his lead in many national polls, a slim majority (55 percent) of Democratic voters are in favor of both Hillary Rodham Clinton and Obama staying in the race for the presidential nomination. The Gallup poll was conducted May 8-11. It does show a slight drop in Democratic support for a competitive campaign; last week’s poll — conducted before the primaries in Indiana and North Carolina — showed 60 percent of Democratic voters in favor of the candidates continuing to battle it out. And the percentage of Democratic respondents advocating that Clinton end her campaign has risen 12 percentage points from 23 percent last week to 35 percent this week.

It is clear that Clinton’s supporters want to see her stay in the race, and that Obama’s supporters want Clinton to give up her candidacy. Seventy-five percent of Clinton supporters, but only 39 percent of Obama supporters, want both to continue. And, 60 percent of Obama supporters want the New York senator to drop her bid.

According to today’s poll, nearly three-quarters (73 percent) of Clinton’s supporters would like to see Obama choose the New York senator as a running mate, as would 43 percent of Obama’s supporters. More than half of Obama’s supporters polled, though, reject an Obama-Clinton ticket.

For results based on the sample of 537 Democrats or Democratic leaners, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

If polls showed Hillary Clinton with West Virginia snugly in her pocket, the same is true for Barack Obama and Oregon, which votes next week.

Three polls have Obama ahead of Clinton by double-digits. Obama leads Clinton 53 percent to 39 percent in a survey conducted May 10-11 by Public Policy Polling. Unlike most other states, the war in Iraq is considered by voters as the top issue with 41 percent saying so, compared to 34 percent who cited the economy. Obama leads Clinton among those who chose Iraq by 63 percent to 31 percent and has a much smaller 48 percent to 44 percent lead over her on the economy. In A surveyUSA poll conducted May 9-11, his lead is 54 percent to 43 percent with a 4 percent margin of error. The SurveyUSA poll still has the economy cited as more important than Iraq, but only by 32 percent to 25 percent. Obama leads among those most concerned with Iraq by 65 percent to 35 percent, and among those who cited the economy by 52 percent to 42 percent. A poll conducted May 8-10 for the Portland Oregonian gave Obama a 55 percent to 35 percent lead.

Kentucky, which also votes next week, is much like West Virginia for Clinton. She leads 60 percent to 32 percent in a poll conducted by SurveyUSA May 9-11

Picking up on a similar pro-Democratic sentiment among voters found in the Washington Post/ABC News poll on which we reported earlier, Rasmussen Reports dug into its data gathered between April 30 - May 8 to test which way these voters leaned on ten key election issues – and found Democrats topped Republicans on all 10.

Rasmussen said the biggest surprise was that voters trusted Democrats more than Republicans when it came to national security and fighting terrorism, by a 49 percent to 42 percent margin. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. On government ethics and integrity, cited as a very important issue by 71 percent of voters, 45 percent trust the Democrats compared to 26 percent for the Republicans.

Rasmussen offers one important caveat on reading too much into these findings as far as what they say about the general election, since its polling has also found that John McCain does better than his party, a conclusion that could also be drawn from the Post/ABC News poll.

A Washington Post/ABC News poll shows Barack Obama leading John McCain in a general election match-up by 51 percent to 44 percent, an advantage beyond the 3 point margin of error but one that still shows a competitive race despite the fact that 8 in 10 Americans think the country is headed in the wrong direction as the Bush administration winds down, and the Democrats are considered the party better able to handle the nation’s problems by a 21 point margin. That gap between the public’s faith in Democrats versus Republicans is the biggest since 1982. Hillary Clinton leads McCain 49 percent to 46 percent. The poll was conducted May 8-11.

Obama is favored over Hillary Clinton by Democrats for their party’s nomination by 53 percent to 41 percent, a 2 point gain for Obama over last month’s poll, and that they believe Obama is more electable in November by 62 percent to 26 percent. The margin of error for the Democratic results is 4 percent. Fifty-six percent of Democrats said the length and contentious of the Democratic contest would make no difference for November while 27 percent said it would the party’s chances. Fifteen percent said it would help.

North Carolina Sen. Elizabeth Dole may be hearing foot steps behind her as two polls show her Democratic challenger, Kay Hagan, a five term member of the state senate, closing the gap between them. Public Policy Polling has Dole ahead by 48 percent to 43 percent compared to the 17 point lead she had in February. The survey was conducted May 8-9 and has a margin of error of 4 percent. Rasmussen Reports yesterday released a poll conducted May 8 that showed Hagan ahead of Dole, although by a statistically insignificant 48 percent to 47 percent. A month earlier, Dole had a 13 point lead in this poll.

Hagan scored a runaway victory in the state’s May 6 primary for the right to challenge Dole, and PPP says the visibility she built up during that campaign may have helped. Now it remains to be seen if she can raise the $10 million she says she needs to compete with Dole. As of now, CQ Politics rates the race as “Republican favored” although we note that Dole is vulnerable, in part because her ties to President Bush. Rasmussen noted that Hagan has tried hard to make that connection by noting that Dole votes with Bush 92 percent of the time.

Barack Obama has jumped back to a statistically significant lead over Hillary Clinton in Gallup’s daily tracking poll. In a survey conducted May 9-11, Obama is ahead of Clinton 50 percent to 43 percent with a 3 percent margin of error. It has been almost three weeks since he was ahead by that kind of margin. In the general election match-ups, Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 43 percent and Clinton is ahead 49 percent to 44 percent which Gallup says “represent the candidates' highest margins over McCain, to date, since Gallup began tracking the general election ballots in early March.” The margin of error in this May 7-11 survey is 2 percent.

Adding two eastern seaboard states where the general election match-ups are competitive:

• Virginia: Barack Obama has pulled within 3 points of John McCain in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 8. McCain leads Obama 47 percent to 44 percent with a margin of error of 4.5 percent, compared to an 11 point lead a month ago. He leads Hillary Clinton 47 percent to 41 percent. Sixty percent of Virginia voters view McCain favorably, 51 percent have positive views of Obama, and Clinton scores at 42 percent. Virginia has voted for Republicans in the last ten presidential races. A SurveyUSA poll in mid-April had McCain ahead of Obama 52 percent to 44 percent and leading Clinton 55 percent to 39 percent.

• North Carolina:The race between Obama and McCain is also within the margin of error here in a Rasmussen poll conducted May 8, with McCain leading Obama 48 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain leads Clinton 43 percent to 40 percent with a whopping 14 percent choosing “other.” Obama does best among voters making less than $20,000 a year or more than $75,000 while McCain does best among middle-income voters. McCain is viewed favorably by 53 percent of voters while Obama’s score is 51 percent. Feelings run stronger in both directions about Obama: 37 percent have a very favorable opinion of him while 30 percent have a very unfavorable opinion, compared to 18 percent and 23 percent respectively for McCain. Clinton’s favorable vote is 46 percent. A May 8-9 survey by Public Policy Polling shows McCain ahead by a bigger margin, though not a lead that's out of reach. McCain leads Obama 49 percent to 42 percent and Clinton by 46 percent to 38 percent with a 4 percent margin of error.

That Hillary Clinton is waaaay ahead in West Virginia, which votes tomorrow, is not news; but the news might be that there are signs this is a state where Barack Obama could have problems in the general election (although with only 5 electoral votes, that may not cause too much sleep to be lost). A Suffolk University poll, conducted May 10-11, says Clinton leads Obama 60 percent to 24 percent with 8 percent undecided and John Edwards, who is still on the ballot, at 4 percent. Two-thirds of West Virginia Democrats said she should stay in the race and 72 percent said she’s not hurting the party by doing so.

West Virginia’s tourist slogan – “wild and wonderful” – might also apply to its voters extraordinary faith that Clinton will be the next president. Thirty-one percent said Clinton, 27 percent said Obama and 26 percent said McCain. Only 40 percent said they would still vote for the Democratic candidate in the general election if their first choice for the nomination lost.

David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said, “Barack Obama may have to write off West Virginia come November…If (he) can't even garner thirty percent of West Virginia Democratic Primary voters, what does that say about the West Virginia general election?"

On this point, check out a CQ Politics video with a West Virginia political analyst.

If the pundits and many voters thought the Rev. Jeremiah Wright was a political albatross for Barack Obama, wait till you see what President Bush does for John McCain.

A USA Today/Gallup poll conducted May 1-3 says that while 33 percent of voters said Obama’s association with Wright made them less likely to support him, 38 percent of voters say that McCain’s association with Bush made them less likely to vote for him. In the Wright-Obama case, 64 percent of voters said it didn’t matter, and in the McCain-Bush case, 54 percent said it didn’t matter. To turn this a little on its head, Gallup did find some upside for Bush-McCain as 7 percent of voters said their association made it more likely that they’d vote for McCain, while Wright’s coattails only pulled in 1 percent for Obama.

These sentiments clearly divided along party lines. Fifty percent of Republicans said Wright made it less likely they’d support Obama compared to 19 percent for Democrats. Sixty-four percent of Democrats said McCain’s association with Bush would turn them off compared to 10 percent of Republicans. Twelve percent of Republicans said the Bush association would make it more likely that they’d vote for McCain. Seventy-seven percent of Republicans said it didn’t matter compared to 33 percent of Democrats.

Bill Clinton also generates some Wright-like numbers for Hillary Clinton. A third said Hillary Clinton’s association with him made it less likely that they’d support her compared to 18 percent who said more likely. Forty-eight percent said it didn’t matter. The “less likely” sentiment was predictably harbored more by Republicans (53 percent) than Democrats (16 percent).

Two more states to update in our round-up:

• Michigan: A May 7 survey by Rasmussen Reports shows a toss-up race no matter which Democrat runs against John McCain. McCain has 45 percent to Barack Obama’s 44 percent with 6 percent saying they’d vote for a third-party candidate and 5 percent undecided. Hillary Clinton ties with McCain at 44 percent with 9 percent saying they’d vote for a third-party candidate and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. As far as Obama, the likely nominee, and McCain go, this poll has showed a close race each month since February. McCain is viewed favorably by 54 percent of the state’s voters, Obama by 50 percent and Clinton by 49 percent.

• Oregon: Obama leads McCain in a general election match-up for Oregon by 52 percent to 38 percent while Clinton is ahead by 46 percent to 40 percent in a May 7 survey conducted by Rasmussen Reports.) The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama’s margin represents a gain of 8 points since March in this poll and part of the reason is that McCain gets the backing of only 68 percent of voters in his own party. Obama’s favorability rating is 61 percent, McCain’s is 52 percent and Clinton’s is 47 percent. In mid-April, SurveyUSA had Obama ahead 51 percent to 42 percent while Clinton ran statistically even with McCain.

Although there is much speculation about how the continuing Democratic nomination fight is hurting its general election chances (see today’s Chicago Tribune story), a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll conducted May 1-8 has either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton ahead of John McCain. Clinton leads McCain 47 percent to 38 percent with 15 percent undecided and Obama is ahead 46 percent to 40 percent with 14 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 percent. In both cases, the Obama and Clinton margins have increased compared to this poll’s findings in January and February.

However, these are still figures that show a competitive race and some of the reasons for it are that McCain is showing some strength with groups that normally are a key element of the Democratic candidates – older, white voters where Clinton has been strong, and independents where Obama has flourished.

Today's Gallup daily tracking poll conducted May 5-9 has Clinton over McCain 48 percent to 44 percent and Obama statistically tied with him at 46 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error is 2 points. In the Democratic race, Gallup's May 7-9 data has Obama over Clinton 49 percent to 44 percent with a 3 point margin of error. That breaks a streak of 16 days where the two were statistically tied.

Barack Obama’s big win in North Carolina and Hillary Clinton’s close call in Indiana, followed by growing talk of an end to the Clinton candidacy, did not have much of an impact on the numbers in Gallup’s daily tracking poll. Obama leads by a statistically insignificant 48 percent to 46 percent in Gallup’s May 6-8 survey, in which it said that two-thirds of the interviews were done after the results were known. The margin of error is 3 percent. The “dead heat” streak is now 16 days old, just one day shy of Yankee left-fielder Hideki Matsui’s hitting streak which he extended to 17 days yesterday against the Cleveland Indians.

A Hotline/Diageo poll conducted April 30 - May 3, before Tuesday's primaries, has Obama ahead of Clinton 48 percent to 37 percent with 8 percent undecided. The margin of error is 5 percent. Seventy-seven percent of Democrats woul stand by Obama if he wins the nomination (56 percent enthusiastically and 21 percent because they oppose John McCain). Clinton's numbers are a little different. She also would get the vote of 77 percent of Democrats but only 50 percent expressed enthusiasm while the rest just wanted to vote against the Republicans. Asked if Obama had attacked Clinton unfairly, only 21 percent said yes, but 50 percent said Clinton had attacked Obama unfairly.

In general election match-ups, Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 43 percent with 7 percent undecided, while Clinton edges him 46 percent to 43 percent with 8 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 percent. Ralph Nader gets 5 percent in a Obama-McCain race and 4 percent in a Clinton-McCain race. Obama's favorabilty ratio is 52 percent to 39 percent on the positive side, Clinton's is 49 percent to 47 percent and McCain's is 48 percent to 39 percent.

Congress' job approval rating - or should we say disapproval rating - is 69 percent disapproving of its performance compared to 27 percent who approve.

Rep. Vito Fossella of Staten Island, a rare Republican in the New York City delegation, has accumulated, shall we say, some political baggage lately. He acknowledged yesterday that he had fathered a child with a woman other than his wife and the previous Thursday, he disclosed that he had been stopped by police for driving while intoxicated. That prompted several less-than-veiled hints from leaders in his own party that maybe he should think about his political future, the Democrats now think they can make a run at this traditionally GOP seat, and his home town paper, the Staten Island Advance, said he should resign immediately.

BUT … 61 percent of adults in his 13th congressional district said he should remain in office as opposed to 32 percent who think he should resign, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted May 8. That goes for Republicans (66 percent ) and Democrats (55 percent) alike. The numbers drop off a bit when voters were asked if he should run for re-election, with 53 percent saying he should against 42 percent. Republicans support the idea of another term by 2-to-1 while Democrats are evenly split.

Hillary Clinton is leading Barack Obama by almost 3-to-1 in West Virginia, according to an American Research Group poll conducted May 7-8. Do you need to know the margin of error? O.K., it’s 4 percent. Clinton has 66 percent to Obama’s 23 percent with 6 percent undecided and 5 percent preferring someone else. Among White voters, who make up 93 percent of the sample, Clinton leads 70 percent to 19 percent while Obama has a 91 percent to 3 percent lead among black voters who make up 5 percent of the sample.

Be sure to read Greg Giroux's piece today surveying the remaining contests.

Here are some other polls released earlier this week on the raming primaries:

• West Virginia (May 13): A big lead for Clinton whose margin over Obama was 56 percent to 27 percent with 17 percent undecided, according to a May 4 Rasmussen Reports survey. Clinton enjoys a 72 percent favorability rating to 48 percent for Obama. Seventy-two percent said they’d likely vote for Clinton over McCain in November, but only 56 percent said that for Obama. Fifty-seven percent believe that Obama shares some of the views of his ex-pastor, Jeremiah Wright.

  • Kentucky (May 20): No surprises here either. Clinton has always been a runaway here, and a Rasmussen Reports poll on May 5 showed her ahead of Obama 56 percent to 31 percent with a 4 point margin of error. Seventy-eight percent of Democrats said they’d vote for Clinton over McCain but just 55 percent said they’d do the same for Obama. Fifty-five percent of voters favor a federal gas tax holiday such as Clinton has proposed versus 34 percent opposed.

  • Oregon (May 20): Obama leads Clinton 51 percent to 39 percent in a Rasmussen poll conducted May 1. The margin of error is 3 points. Clinton’s usually consistent lead among senior citizens – who probably helped save her in Indiana – is insignificant here. Both have favorability ratings in the 70s.

The other three primaries are Puerto Rico on June 1, and Montana and South Dakota on June 3.

Jon Stewart himself might have a good laugh over this: the Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism studied the content of The Daily Show for all of 2007 to see how it was different or similar to the mainstream press in terms of what it covered (in its own unique way). After all, Pew noted, its survey on the prominence of best-know journalists in March 2007 found that Stewart tied in the rankings with anchormen Brian Williams, Tom Brokaw, Dan Rather and cable host Anderson Cooper.

So, to answer the question Pew posed for itself – is the Daily Show journalism, satire or just laughs? – it came up with these findings:

• The program’s “clearest focus” is politics, especially Beltway politics which accounted for nearly 47 percent of its air time. “Overall, "The Daily Show" news agenda is quite close to those of cable news talk shows,” Pew said.
• Stewart’s skewering of the press takes up about 8 percent of the program.
• The show focused its satire on Republicans three times as often as Democrats during the period of July 1 through November 1.
• The show avoids, for obvious reasons, major events covered by the conventional media when they have to do with tragedies like the Minneapolis Bridge Collapse or Virginia Tech shootings.

Pew noted that Stewart has always said his show is not journalism, but concluded, that it “aims at more than comedy. In its choice of topics, its use of news footage to deconstruct the manipulations by public figures and its tendency toward pointed satire over playing just for laughs, "The Daily Show" performs a function that is close to journalistic in nature -- getting people to think critically about the public square. In that sense, it is a variation of the tradition of Russell Baker, Art Hoppe, Art Buchwald, H.L. Mencken and other satirists who once graced the pages of American newspapers.”

So, now that you’ve read this far, you might as well watch Stewart’s interview of John McCain from yesterday.

Three states to update:

• Missouri: McCain runs ahead of Obama 47 percent to 41 percent and Hillary Clinton by 45 percent to 43 percent in this swing state, according to a Rasmussen reports survey conducted May 6. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. In late March, Rasmussen had McCain over Obama 53 percent to 38 percent and ahead of Clinton 50 percent to 41 percent. McCain’s favorability rating is 55 percent, Obama’s is 46 percent and Clinton’s is 45 percent. In mid-April, SurveyUSA said Clinton was leading McCain 47 percent to 46 percent and McCain was leading Obama by 50 percent to 42 percent, with a margin of error of 4.3 percent.

• Georgia: McCain leads Barack Obama 53 percent to 39 percent and Hillary Clinton by 48 percent to 37 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 6. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain holds big leads among men voters against either Democrat. McCain is viewed favorably by 59 percent of voters, down 5 points since March. Obama is viewed favorably by 43 percent and Clinton by 39 percent.

• Wisconsin: McCain holds 47 percent to 43 percent leads over either Clinton or Obama, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 5. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain and Obama were a toss-up in Rasmussen’s March poll while McCain led Clinton by 11 points. A SurveyUSA poll conducted April 11-13 had McCain and Clinton tied and Obama ahead by 3 points, within the margin of error. McCain is viewed favorably by 58 percent of voters and unfavorably by 40 percent; Obama has 51 percent favorable, 48 percent unfavorable; and, Clinton is viewed unfavorably by 52 percent compared to the 46 percent who have positive views of her.

Gallup says that a Barack Obama race against John McCain stacks up very similarly to the 2004 contest between John Kerry and George Bush, according to an analysis of its May 1-5 data. Of course, no one probably has to remind Gallup that Kerry lost, so we’re not sure if the pollster is just being the bearer of bad news. But Gallup’s main point was to address the disparity between Obama and Hillary Clinton when it came to the higher level of support she had among white voters in most primaries, and what that said about Obama's strengths and weaknesses.

Gallup said that white voters back McCain over Obama by 53 percent to 37 percent, compared to Bush’s 58 percent to 41 percent margin over Kerry among them, as measured by CNN exit polls in 2004. Gallup goes on to say that the “way Obama stacks up against McCain at this point is similar to the way in which Kerry performed against Bush in 2004 within several key racial, educational, religious, and gender subgroups.”

Today’s Gallup daily tracking poll, conducted May 2-6 for all voters, has both Democrats neck-and-neck with McCain et 46 percent to 45 percent. In the Democratic race, Obama is at 47 percent to Clinton’s 46 percent, with 5 percent expressing no opinion. This survey was conducted May 4-6 with a margin of error of 3 points.

Here’s the outlook for Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in three of the next six (and last!) primaries. These surveys were conducted before the Indiana and North Carolina primaries. The numbers aren’t very surprising but there is some disturbing news for Obama in some in terms of how many Democrats would stick with him in a general election contest again John McCain:

• West Virginia (May 13): A big lead for Clinton whose margin over Obama was 56 percent to 27 percent with 17 percent undecided, according to a May 4 Rasmussen Reports survey. Clinton enjoys a 72 percent favorability rating to 48 percent for Obama. Seventy-two percent said they’d likely vote for Clinton over McCain in November, but only 56 percent said that for Obama. Fifty-seven percent believe that Obama shares some of the views of his ex-pastor, Jeremiah Wright.

• Kentucky (May 20): No surprises here either. Clinton has always been a runaway here, and a Rasmussen Reports poll on May 5 showed her ahead of Obama 56 percent to 31 percent with a 4 point margin of error. Seventy-eight percent of Democrats said they’d vote for Clinton over McCain but just 55 percent said they’d do the same for Obama. Fifty-five percent of voters favor a federal gas tax holiday such as Clinton has proposed versus 34 percent opposed.

• Oregon (May 20): Obama leads Clinton 51 percent to 39 percent in a Rasmussen poll conducted May 1. The margin of error is 3 points. Clinton’s usually consistent lead among senior citizens – who probably helped save her in Indiana – is insignificant here. Both have favorability ratings in the 70s.

The other three primaries are Puerto Rico on June 1, and Montana and South Dakota on June 3.

The voters have spoken and the REAL results are Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton in North Carolina by 56 percent to 42 percent and Clinton barely edging Obama in Indiana by 51 percent to 49 percent. Here's what the polls closest to election day predicted:

North Carolina:

• Zogby: Obama 51 percent, Clinton 37 percent.
• Public Policy Polling: Obama 53, Clinton 43
• American Research Group: Obama 50, Clinton 42
• SurveyUSA: Obama 50, Clinton 45
• InsiderAdvantage: Obama 48, Clinton 45

Indiana:

• Zogby: Obama 45 percent, Clinton 43 percent.
• Suffolk University: Clinton 49, Obama 43
• Public Policy Polling: Clinton 51, Obama 46
• American Research Group:Clinton 53, Obama 45
• SurveyUSA: Clinton 54, Obama 42

Here are the headlines from the early exit polls:

Fox News:

• Forty-eight percent of Indiana voters said the controversy over Obama’s ex-pastor, Jeremiah Wright was very or somewhat important to their decision, and of these, 69 percent voted for Clinton.
• In North Carolina, 48 percent said the Wright furor was somewhat or very important, and 62 percent of these backed Clinton.
• Sixty-five percent of Indianans said the economy was the top issue for them, and they favored Clinton 54 percent to 45 percent. In North Carolina, 60 percent cited the economy as the top issue but they broke for Obama by 62 percent to 36 percent.
• Sixty-five percent of white voters with no college degree in Indiana and 67 percent in North Carolina.
• Sixty-six percent of Indiana voters considered Obama honest and trustworthy compared to 54 percent for Clinton.

CNN: Indiana and North Carolina

• In Indiana, half of Hillary Clinton’s supporters would not vote for Barack Obama over John McCain. A third would support McCain and just under one-fifth would not vote at all. Forty-eight percent would back Obama.
• In North Carolina, 38 percent of Clinton supporters said they’d choose McCain over Obama and 12 percent said they wouldn’t vote at all. Forty-five percent would back Obama.
• As for Obama supporters, 59 percent of Hoosiers said they’d vote for Clinton if she were the nominee and 70 percent of North Carolina Democrats would back her.
• In Indiana, voters considered Obama honest and trustworthy 66 percent to 33 percent, while they said that of Clinton by a lesser 54 percent to 45 percent.
• Two-thirds of Indiana voters said the economy was their top issue and they divided fairly evenly between Obama and Clinton in terms who they thought was the best choice to improve it. Eighty-one percent of North Carolinians said the economic downturn has affected them and they thought Obama better suited to deal with the economy by 52 percent to 42 percent. Eighteen percent of Indiana voters cited Iraq as the top issue (compared to two-thirds who named the economy) and they favored Obama 54 percent to 46 percent.
• Fifty-one percent of Indiana voters said the ability to bring change was the most important candidate characteristic for them, and they favored Obama 70 percent to 30 percent. Experience was Number Two at 23 percent and Clinton ran away with these voters 96 percent to 3 percent.
• Eighteen percent of Indiana voters made up their mind in the last 3 days with the rest deciding before that.
• Who attacked who unfairly? In Indiana. a quarter of Democrats said only Clinton did versus 5 percent who believed that of Obama and 39 percent said both.

ABC News:

• Obama won 91 percent of black voters in North Carolina, who account for about one-third of the total vote. To offset that, Clinton needed 70 percent of the white vote but got 58 percent.

New York Times:

• Roughly three-quarters of voters in both primary states had made up their minds on who to support before the last week – something that did not square

Associated Press

• Two-thirds of working class white voters were supporting Clinton.

Not surprisingly, more Clinton than Obama supporters favor the race continuing. Sixty-nine percent of those who want Clinton to be the nominee say they want her to stay in the race, while 49 percent of Obama backers say they want her to stay in.

But they're not willing for it to last all the way to the convention. Forty-five percent wanted the undeclared superdelegates to commit to a candidate after all the primaries and caucuses (last one is June 3), while 24 percent want the superdelegate endorsements after today's Indiana and North Carolina primaries. Twenty-six percent said the convention was the best place for superdelegates to make up their minds. Also not surprisingly, more Clinton supporters were eager for superdelegate decisions to be made as late as the convention than Obama supporters (32 to 16 percent).

The pollsters say: "The results suggest that a majority of Democrats are willing to allow the primary and caucus schedule to play out. That is somewhat at odds with earlier Gallup polling showing that the party rank-and-file believes the ongoing campaign is doing more harm than good to the Democrats' chances of winning the November election." That earlier survey was done one week before this one.

The survey has a 5 percent margin of error.

Today's pair of Zogby polls hold good news for Barack Obama, showing him well ahead in North Carolina, with 51 percent support compared to Hillary Rodham Clinton's 37 percent. Twelve percent were undecided or choosing someone else. The telephone survey was done May 3-4. Obama gained 3 points while Clinton lost 3 from the previous survey, just one day earlier.

In Indiana, Zogby says, "the race is clear as mud, as Obama holds a statistically insignificant lead of two points, winning 45% support to Clinton’s 43% support, with 12% either undecided or favoring someone else."

As usual, in North Carolina Obama has strong support among African Americans (79 percent) while Clinton holds the majority among whites (52 percent).

The margin of error for both polls was +/- 3.9 percent.

And, for what it's worth, Suffolk University says the "Indiana bellwether area of Delaware County points to Hillary Clinton to win." Clinton leads there 44 percent to 37 percent, according to its Monday night survey.

CQ Politics has done special analyses of how the contest for delegates is going in each of tomorrow's primaries, see Slim Obama Victory in N.C. Delegates Predicted and Close Delegate Split Expected in Indiana.

Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 47 percent to 40 percent in an AP-Ipsos poll conducted April 30 – May 4. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. In general election match-ups, Clinton leads John McCain 47 percent to 42 percent with 8 percent saying neither and Obama leads him 46 percent to 42 percent with 9 percent saying neither. The margin of error is 3.1 percent.

Most polls in North Carolina and Indiana, which vote Tuesday, show Barack Obama ahead of Hillary Clinton in North Carolina by a diminished margin compared to the big double-digit leads where he started out, and Clinton leading in most Indiana polls, also by less than where she was earlier. Check out the different takes on the South Carolina race between Public Policy Polling and InsiderAdvantage.

But the two contests that are both shaping up as close is the fight for actual delegates. For special CQ Politics analyses of how the contest for delegates is going in each of tomorrow's primaries. see Slim Obama Victory in N.C. Delegates Predicted and Close Delegate Split Expected in Indiana.

Here are the polls on both states that have been released so far today:

Indiana

• Public Policy Polling: Clinton is leading Obama 51 percent to 46 percent in a survey conducted May 3-4. The margin of error is 3.4 percent. She has lost a point since last week as Obama shored up his support with black voters, with his margin over Clinton rising 16 points among them. The open primary also helps him since he trails Clinton by 10 points among Democrats but leads her 48 percent to 45 percent among Republicans and 52 percent to 39 percent among unaffiliated voters.

• SurveyUSA: Clinton leads Obama 54 percent to 42 percent in this poll conducted May 2-4. The margin of error is 3.8 percent. She runs evenly with Obama among males but runs away from him among women, 60 percent to 38 percent. She trumps Obama in every age bracket except voters under 34. Her lead among white voters (87 percent of the sample) is 58 percent to 39 percent while Obama’s advantage among black voters (10 percent of the sample) is 77 percent to 21 percent. Fifty-three percent of voters say the economy is the top issue and they support Clinton 57 percent to 40 percent. On Iraq, named by 14 percent of voters, Obama is ahead 56 percent to 42 percent.

• Suffolk University: Clinton leads Obama 49 percent to 43 percent among likely Democratic primary voters in Indiana with 6 percent undecided, according to a Suffolk University poll conducted May3-4. The margin of error is 4 percent. A striking 38 percent of voters said they’d defect to John McCain in November if their choice of the nomination doesn’t win. Despite Clinton’s leads, Obama’s favorability rating was higher with 58 percent viewing him favorably versus 29 percent, while Clinton’s was 53 percent compared to 36 percent. Thirty-five percent of voters said they believed Obama would be the next president, 28 percent said Clinton and 25 percent named McCain.

• Zogby:This daily tracking poll, which has shown the Indiana race to be tighter than other surveys, says Obama leads 44 percent to 42 percent with eight percent undecided and 7 percent preferring someone else. The poll was conducted May 3-4 and has a margin of error of 4 percent.

• American Research Group: Clinton leads 53 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent undecided in a poll conducted May 2-4. The margin of error is 4 percent. Obama has a 4 point lead among men compared to Clinton’s 18 point lead among women. Clinton leads among white voters (84 percent of the sample) by 60 percent to 38 percent, while Obama leads by 90 percent to 8 percent among black voters (12 percent of the sample).

North Carolina

• SurveyUSA: Obama leads 50 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent undecided in this poll conducted May 2-4. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. SurveyUSA says “with 25% of votes already cast, Barack Obama has no breathing room in his hope to defeat Hillary Clinton in popular votes.”

• Zogby: Obama is ahead of Clinton 48 percent to 40 percent, with 8 percent undecided and 5 percent preferring someone else. The poll was conducted during the same period as Indiana with the same margin of error. It's about the same result of the last three Zogby daily polls, but contrasts to the 16 point lead Obama had in the April 30- May 1 survey.

• American Research Group: Obama leads 50 percent to 42 percent with 4 percent undecided and 4 percent preferring someone else. The poll was conducted May 2-4 and has a 4 point margin of error. At the end of March, Obama had a 13 point lead but his margins since then have been between 8 and 10 points. Clinton has a big lead among men and is statistically tied with Clinton among women. Clinton leads Obama 62 percent to 27 percent among white voters ( 60 percent of the sample) and Obama leads among black voters 88 percent to 9 percent (36 percent of the sample).

• Public Policy Polling: Obama has a 53 percent to 43 percent lead in a survey conducted May 3-4. the margin of error is 3.3 percent. PPP says this is the smallest lead Obama has had in its poll in six weeks, but adds, “At the end of the day North Carolina's demographics make it nearly impossible for Hillary Clinton to do much better than a ten point loss here.” The pollster estimates 35 percent of the turnout will be black voters and Obama’s 84 percent to 11 percent advantage among them will blunt Clinton’s 60 percent to 34 percent margin among whites.

• Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion: Someone has to be the contrarian and this pollster is it. In this survey Obama leads by only 48 percent to 45 percent with 7 percent undecided, with the margin of error at 3 percent. The poll was conducted May 4. Taking the flip-side of PPP’s analysis, InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery says: “Clinton has increased her lead among white voters to 58% - very close to the 60% plus level needed to pull off a victory…(but) African-American voters are not quite as solid with Obama as they have been, at least based on previous exit polls.”

Democrats nationally who have followed the controversy over Barack Obama’s ex-pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, say by 65 percent to 32 percent that Obama’s relationship to him is not meaningful to the campaign although, as you might guess, Republicans and supporters of Hillary Clinton say not-so-fast, according to a Gallup poll conducted May 1-3. Clinton supporters call the subject meaningful by 51 percent to 48 percent, compared to 85 percent of Obama supporters who do not find it meaningful. Republicans say it is meaningful by 58 percent to 36 percent. However, Clinton supporters do acknowledge – by a 66 percent to 28 percent margin – that Obama totally disagrees with Wright’s views, as do Obama supporters by 89 percent to 7 percent. Two-thirds of Clinton supporters say Obama has handled the controversy well. And about the same number of Clinton backers said it would not be a factor in their decisions whether to vote for him if he becomes the nominee.

Three-quarters of all Democrats have a favorable view of Obama, a number that drops to 55 percent among supporters of Clinton.

You can weigh these findings along with today’s USA Today/Gallup poll and Sunday’s New York Times/CBS News survey on the subject.

Hillary Clinton is leading Barack Obama 51 percent to 44 percent in a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted May 1-3. The margin of error is 5 percent. USA Today’s take on its results is that Obama has been significantly damaged by the Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy raising questions among some voters about his “values, credibility and electability.” Obama had led by 10 points in this poll before the re-emergence of the Wright issue.

Gallup's own daily tracking poll has Obama ahead of Clinton 50 percent to 45 percent in its survey of May 2-4. The margin of error is 3 points.

The conclusion drawn by the USA Today/Gallup poll on the impact of Wright is different than the view taken yesterday by the New York Times/CBS News poll which said that most Americans said the furor has not affected their view of Obama and approved of the way he has handled the matter, although the Times did put a number of caveats on that finding. It did agree with a Rasmussen Reports finding from last week that many Americans believe that Obama’s latest denunciation of Wright was for political reasons rather than sincere disagreement.

A New York Times/CBS News poll, conducted after Barack Obama’s denunciation on Tuesday of his former pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, finds that a majority of Americans say the controversy has not affected their opinion of Obama, and approved of the way he has handled it. (Of course, what polls can't take into account is what good Obama might have been able to do for himself message-wise if the Wright story hadn't so dominated the news).

While saying the Wright furor had not affected their opinion, nearly half the voters, including a substantial number of Democrats, said he had repudiated Wright mainly for political reasons, mirroring a similar result in a recent Rasmussen Reports poll. The Times cautioned that because the survey, conducted May 1-3, had a “relatively small number of Democrats” and was nationally-based, it might not reflect widespread sentiments within the party or reflect what impact the Wright story has had in North Carolina and Indiana, which have primaries on Tuesday. Just to give you the actual size of the sample, it included 601 registered voters of whom 283 were Democratic primary voters and 148 were Republican primary voters. The margin of error is 6 percent for those who voted in Democratic primaries and 4 percent for all voters.

Three-quarters of all voters say the Wright issue has made no difference in their view of Obama, a result about the same among Democrats only. Sixty percent of all voters and 68 percent of Democratic primary voters approve the way he has handled the controversy. But on the question of whether Obama’s response was politically motivated or because he really disagreed with Wright, 47 percent of all voters said political versus 34 percent, and 43 percent of Democrats also said political, versus 40 percent.