New polls for Pennsylvania and North Carolina seem to back up what the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg people concluded from the survey they released yesterday – that Hillary Clinton faces an uphill battle in the most important of the remaining primary states.
Clinton and Barack Obama are in a statistical dead-heat in Pennsylvania in a April 14-15 survey conducted by Public Policy Polling. Obama leads Clinton 45 percent to 42 percent, with the margin of error at 3 percent. Last week, Clinton led by 3 points in this survey, and a week earlier, Obama led by 2 points. PPP’s Dean Debnam says with candidate has a “decent chance” of winning next Tuesday’s primary, and also concluded that Obama’s “bitter” remark had not hurt him in the state, or in North Carolina where PPP also polls. Nationally, Gallup has come to the same conclusion based on data it gathered April 8-10 and April 12-14, saying that that “Obama's support has yet to suffer following his widely reported remarks about small-town voters being ‘bitter.’ ‘
Obama has a 53 percent to 34 percent lead among men voters while Clinton leads among women voters 48 percent to 39 percent. (Women comprised 58 percent of the sample and men 42 percent). Clinton’s lead among white voters (77 percent of the sample) is 49 percent to 37 percent while Obama’s advantage with black voters (17 percent of the sample) is 77 percent to 12 percent. Except for Obama’s 9 point edge among voters under 29 (16 percent of the sample), there is not much difference between the candidates in age groups. Fifty percent of voters named the economy as the top issue of the campaign while 28 percent cited Iraq.
The Pennsylvania polls have been a mixed bag. here are the other ones that came out this week.
- Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg: Clinton ahead 46 percent to 41 percent, with a 4 point margin of error. Conducted April 10-14.
- Franklin & Marshall: Clinton ahead 46 percent to 40 percent with a 5.1 percent margin of error. Conducted April 8-13.
- Rasmussen Reports:Clinton ahead 50 percent to 41 percent with a 4 percent margin of error. Conducted April 14.
- Quinnipiac University: Clinton ahead 50 percent to 44 percent with a 2.1 percent margin of error. Conducted April 9-13.
- SurveyUSA: Clinton ahead 54 percent to 40 percent with a 3.9 percent margin of error. Conducted April 12-14
In North Carolina, which votes May 6, Obama still is riding a double-digit lead although it has slipped by 2 points to 52 percent to 41 percent, in an American Research Group poll conducted April 14-15. The margin of error is 4 percent. Obama leads among both men and women, although his margin among women voters is smaller. Clinton leads 57 percent to 33 percent among white voters (62 percent of the sample) while Obama leads 86 percent to 10 percent among black voters (34 percent of the sample).
InsiderAdvantage's North Carolina survey conducted April 14 has Obama ahead 51 percent to 36 percent with 13 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent.
For reporting on the ground in these states, check out:
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