Poll Tracker

Michigan: The Detroit News ]reported today (April 14) that a poll by EPIC-MRA showed Obama leading McCain 43 percent to 41 percent while McCain leads Clinton 46 percent to 37 percent. The margin of error is 4 percent. Fifty-nine percent had a favorable view of McCain compared to 55 percent for Obama and 45 percent for Clinton.

Here are the previous polls reported in our round-up:

• North Carolina: In mid-March, John McCain had a 9 point lead over Barack Obama in this state and ran 16 percent ahead of Hillary Clinton in a Rasmussen Reports poll, but in its new survey conducted April 10, Obama and McCain are even at 47 percent. McCain still has a double-digit lead over Clinton but it is now 51 percent to 40 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent.

• New York: a WNBC/Marist poll, conducted April 3-4, concludes from its numbers that the drawn-out Democratic race has taken its toll. It says that if the election were held today, McCain would run “surprisingly close” in New York to either Democrat. Clinton polls 48 percent to 46 percent against McCain, while McCain leads Obama 48 percent to 46 percent. The margin of error is 4 percent. In mid-March, A Quinnipiac University poll put Clinton's home state firmly in the Democratic column no matter which candidate was nominated. The poll, conducted March 16-18, said Clinton led McCain 50 percent to 40 percent while Obama bested him 49 percent to 38 percent. The margin of error is 2.5 percent. A previous SurveyUSA poll, conducted March 14-16, had Clinton ahead 54 percent to 41 percent while Obama led 52 percent to 44 percent.

• Louisiana: McCain leads Barack Obama 52 percent to 41 percent and Hillary Clinton by 58 percent to 36 percent in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted April 9. McCain is viewed favorably by 64 percent of voters, Obama by 53 percent and Clinton by 37 percent. ...and from earlier round-ups:

• Ohio: McCain leads Obama by 47 percent to 40 percent and Clinton by 47 percent to 42 percent in a poll conducted April 8. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. In last month’s Rasmussen poll, McCain led both by 6 points. A Quinnipiac University poll in late March had Clinton leading McCain 48 percent to 39 percent while Obama and McCain were locked at 43 percent to 42 percent. The margin of error was 2.8 percent. On the favorability scale, McCain scores 53 percent positive ratings, Obama 50 percent and Clinton 43 percent. Rasmussen says that if Obama is the nominee, 20 percent of Democrats would vote for McCain while 15 percent of Republicans would defect to Obama. With Clinton leading the ticket, 13 percent of Democrats would cross over to McCain while 9 percent of Republicans would back Clinton.

• New Mexico: A race between McCain and either Democrat looks close right now. Obama leads McCain 45 percent to 42 percent and McCain leads Clinton 46 percent to 43 percent – both results within the 4.5 percent margin of error. McCain is viewed favorably by 57 percent of voters, Obama by 56 percent and Clinton by 46 percent, according to this April 8 survey. A mid-March SurveyUSA poll had shown both Clinton and Obama ahead of McCain by 51 percent to 45 percent, with a 4.4 percent margin of error.

• Alaska: McCain leads Clinton by 25 points and Obama by 48 percent to 43 percent, with a 4.5 percent margin of error, in a poll conducted April 7. McCain’s favorable rating is 63 percent, Obama’s is 55 percent and Clinton’s is 35 percent.

• Montana: McCain leads Obama by 48 percent to 43 percent, and is way ahead of Clinton, 54 percent to 36 percent, according to a poll conducted April 6. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Rasmussen was impressed by Obama’s showing given George W. Bush’s 25 point victory in 2004. McCain is viewed favorably by 56 percent of voters, Obama by 54 percent and Clinton by 42 percent.

• Alabama: McCain leads both Democrats by wide margins in Alabama: Barack Obama by 55 percent to 37 percent and Hillary Clinton by 51 percent to 40 percent, according to Rasmussen Reports. The poll was conducted April 2 and has a 4.5 percent margin of error. McCain’s favorability rating is 60 percent, but only 46 percent have a positive view of Clinton and 39 percent regard Obama favorably. Forty-five percent of voters say the economy is the top issue and 16 percent cite Iraq. This is unchanged since we reported a SurveyUSA poll conducted March 14-16.

• Washington state: Obama leads McCain 51 percent to 44 percent while McCain is in a virtual 46 percent to 45 percent tie with Clinton, according to a SurveyUSA poll )conducted April 7. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. McCain runs ahead of Clinton among men voters by 57 percent to 34 percent, while she leads him among women voters by an almost identical margin. Obama does better among men, trailing McCain by a smaller 51 percent to 47 percent margin, while holding a double digit lead among women. Obama and Clinton both best McCain among voters under 34, though one age group where McCain runs strongly is the 35-to-49 bracket when matched against Clinton. A mid-March SurveyUSA poll had Obama ahead of McCain by 9 points and Clinton by 5 points, with a 4.4 percent margin of error.

• Iowa:Rasmussen Reports says, based on a March 31 survey, that Obama is leading McCain 46 percent to 42 percent, but that McCain trounces Clinton by 51 percent to 36 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. A key factor in these results are the loyalties of unaffiliated voters who favor Obama over McCain by 46 percent to 37 percent, but who prefer McCain over Clinton by 2-to-1. A SurveyUSA poll conducted in mid-March had McCain leading Clinton 48 percent to 44 percent and Obama leading McCain 50 percent to 44 percent, with a 4.4 percent margin of error.

• New Jersey: A Rasmussen Reports poll) conducted March 27 showed him statistically tied with both potential Democratic opponents. A Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll doesn’t have McCain tied, but it does have him close: with Clinton ahead 48 percent to 43 percent and Obama by 47 percent to 42 percent. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. Obama’s advantage over Clinton against McCain is that he does better among independent voters. Clinton’s advantage over Obama is that she holds together more of the Democratic base than he does. On the other hand, Republicans are more united behind McCain in a race against Clinton than Obama, although in either case, McCain can count on the support of 80 percent or more of them. Dan Cassino of Fairleigh Dickinson said, “New Jersey is reflective of the national race. Clinton is a polarizing figure, getting more support from the Democratic base at the cost of solidifying McCain’s support among Republicans.”

• Wisconsin: Obama and McCain are running neck-and-neck in that state but McCain is ahead of Hillary Clinton by a large margin, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted March 26. McCain leads Obama 48 percent to 46 percent but outpaces Clinton by 50 percent to 39 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. There is one marked difference in this poll compared to one SurveyUSA did March 14-16 which is that while it showed a tight McCain-Obama race, it also said the same was true of Clinton-McCain which may be due to a difference of methodology or slippage in support for Clinton since mid-March. However, Rasmussen’s late February pollalso had Clinton significantly behind. Clinton’s negatives, as in other polls, are high: she’s on the wrong end of the favorability ratings by 55 percent to 39 percent while McCain and Obama both enjoy positive ratings. The most important campaign issue for Wisconsin voters is the economy (39 percent) and only 19 percent of them give the economy a good or excellent rating. Twenty-two percent cite Iraq.

• Virginia:McCain is putting more distance between himself and his potential Democratic rivals in Virginia, according to a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted March 27. McCain leads Obama 52 percent to 41 percent and Clinton by a whopping 58 percent to 36 percent. The margin of error is 4,5 percent. The previous Rasmussen poll last month had McCain leading Obama by a more modest 5 points and Clinton by 10 points. But Rasmussen’s findings were even more starkly different when compared to a SurveyUSA poll conducted March 14-16 which showed both Democrats running evenly with McCain, suggesting that perhaps traditionally-Republican Virginia was becoming a “purple” state open to Democratic inroads. Following trends in other national and state-by-state polls, Clinton suffers from high negatives with 61 percent viewing her unfavorably versus 37 percent who give her positive ratings. McCain’s favorable-to unfavorable ratio is 64 percent to 34 percent while Obama’s is 53 percent to 47 percent. Thirty-eight percent of voters choose the economy as the top campaign issue and only 17 percent rate the economy as good or excellent. Fifty-seven percent of Virginia’s voters believe the U.S. is winning in Iraq which Rasmussen notes is higher than the national average, possibly contributing McCain’s strength in this poll.

• Connecticut: Obama has a 52 percent to 35 percent lead over McCain in Connecticut, while Clinton leads McCain by only 45 percent to 42 percent, according to a [Quinnipiac University poll]conducted March 19-24. The margin of error is 2.4 percent. These results are similar to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted in mid-March. A good deal of Obama’s strength comes from independents who favor him 48 percent to 35 percent and voters under 45 who back him by 63 percent to 35 percent. Obama also has a 9 point lead among white voters. - The interesting thing about this poll is the extent to which it mirrors what the national polls are saying about the challenges facing Clinton. Reflecting the national findings of an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released yesterday, Clinton suffers in Connecticut from high negatives, with 47 percent of voters viewing her unfavorably to 46 percent who view her favorably. Obama’s favorability rating is 59 to 24 percent and McCain’s is 52 percent to 31 percent. Democrats say Obama would be a good president by a 56 percent to 28 percent margin with 31 percent of his supporters citing his fresh ideas and 19 percent citing his intelligence. Democrats say Clinton would be a good president by a 49 percent to 43 percent with 48 percent of her supporters pointing to her experience and 27 percent to her intelligence. But again, this poll mirrors a finding about Clinton that has shown up in national polls as well. Of her critics, 25 percent say she is dishonest. USAToday/Gallup had did a March 14-16 survey in which 44 percent considered her honest and trustworthy while 53 percent did not.

• Nevada: Obama and Clinton have small but statistically insignificant leads over McCain, according to a Rasmussen Reports conducted March 19. Obama leads 45 percent to 41 percent while Clinton is ahead 44 percent to 43 percent, both within a 4.5 percent margin of error. In mid-February, Obama had led 50 percent to 38 percent, while McCain led Clinton 49 percent to 40 percent, which is reflective of the slide Obama has taken in state and national polls during March. Rasmussen notes that Nevada has voted with the winner in the last seven elections, and in the last four, the winning margin was no larger than 4 points. Thirty-nine percent of Nevadans say the economy is the top issue and only 17 percent of them rate it as good or excellent.

• California: Both Democrats have comfortable leads over McCain. Clinton leads him 56 percent to 38 percent and Obama bests him 54 percent to 40 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain gets about a quarter of black and Hispanic voters in a race against Clinton. Against Obama, he gets a third of Hispanic voters but only 13 percent of black voters. Like all other states, Californians say the economy is the top issue (37 percent). There is hardly a demographic or issue category in which McCain leads, although he is the runaway winner as usual among those who cite terrorism as the top issue here (10 percent).

• Massachusetts: Hillary Clinton leads McCain 55 percent to 42 percent, while McCain ties Obama at 47 percent each. The poll was conducted March 14-16 and has a 4.5 percent margin of error. Clinton has a 2-to-1 lead over McCain among women voters. McCain leads Obama by a modest 49 percent to 44 percent among white voters, but what is interesting is that while Obama’s lead over McCain among black voters is a substantial 69 percent to 29 percent, that is generally a better showing among black voters than Clinton has registered in polls and primaries. Forty-seven percent of voters named the economy as the top issue and both Clinton and Obama have modest leads over McCain among those voters. Of the 17 percent who cared most about Iraq, Clinton and Obama had large leads over McCain. As in nearly every other state poll, McCain far outdistances either Democrat on the issue of dealing with terrorism, but in Massachusetts, only 7 percent name that as the top issue.

• Oregon: While McCain is behind both Democrats, he is competitive here. Clinton leads him 50 percent to 44 percent, and Obama is ahead 50 percent to 41 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. The only age group where there is a gaping difference between McCain and the Democrats is the 18-to-34 voters where the leads of Clinton and Obama are in double-digits. Clinton runs evenly with McCain among white voters (87 percent of the sample), but Obama does better in this state, leading McCain 50 percent to 42 percent. Thirty-six percent say the economy is the top issue and these voters are pretty much split between McCain and either Democrat. The 15 percent of voters who cite Iraq are heavily in favor of the Democrats over McCain, although the 9 percent most concerned with terrorism favor McCain by the usual overwhelming margins.

• Minnesota: This shapes up as a tight race no matter which Democrat faces McCain. Clinton leads him 49 percent to 46 percent and McCain edges Obama 47 percent to 46 percent, but the margin of error is 4.3 percent. Obama and Clinton have double-digit leads over McCain among voters under 34, but McCain reverses that in the 35-to-49 age group. Both Democrats run fairly evenly with McCain among white voters, and among black voters, McCain runs evenly with Clinton and trails Obama by about 3-to-1. The top issue among Minnesotans is the economy (cited by 46 percent) and McCain is roughly even with both Democrats. Health care is second at 13 percent and both Clinton and Obama enjoy big leads among these voters as they do with the 12 percent who care most about Iraq. McCain holds his usual large lead here among the 7 percent of voters most worried about terrorism.

• Kansas:McCain leads Clinton 55 percent to 36 percent and Obama by 51 percent to 39 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. McCain beats Clinton in all age groups and lags Obama only among voters under 34. He has leads each Democrat by more than 20 points among white voters who made up 87 percent of the sample. More than half of Kansans say they attend religious services regular and McCain leads by 2-to-1 among them. Twenty-seven percent describe themselves as Evangelicals and, there, McCain’s leads are in the 3-to-1 range. Thirty-six percent of voters cite the economy as the top issue and, in this state, McCain leads Clinton 54 percent to 38 percent and Obama by roughly the same amount as the poll’s margin of error. Among the 12 percent of voters most concerned about Iraq, Clinton and Obama lead McCain but by less than in some other states (an 11 point edge for Clinton and 9 points for Obama). Immigration was cited by 11 percent and McCain’s leads are 3-to-1. His lead on fighting terrorism among the 7 percent of voters who placed that first is 76 percent to 22 percent over Clinton and 87 percent to 11 percent over Obama.

• Arkansas: Clinton trails McCain in a general election match-up in her home state of Arkansas and Obama is not even close, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll() conducted March 18. McCain leads Clinton 50 percent to 43 percent and Obama by 59 percent to 30 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain far outpaces Clinton in favorability ratings, among voters by 66 percent to 50 percent. The economy is regarded as the top issue, with 48 percent of voters citing it, and among them, just 14 percent rate the economy good or excellent.

• Georgia: Rasmussen, in a poll conducted March 20, showed McCain leading Obama 53 percent to 40 percent and Clinton 54 percent to 34 percent. Georgia voters also named the economy as the most important issue (45 percent) and only 15 percent said the economy was good or excellent.

• Missouri: McCain runs far ahead of Obama in this state with 11 electoral votes, but would be in a tight race with Hillary Clinton, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted March 14-16. His margin over Obama is 53 percent to 39 percent, while he leads Clinton by only 48 percent to 46 percent. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. McCain bests Obama by double-digits in all age groups except 50-to-64 where they are in a statistical tie. He also leads Clinton among all age groups except 50-to-64, but by smaller margins. Clinton leads him in the 50-to-64 group by 56 percent to 38 percent. The economy is named as the top issue by 41 percent of voters, and Clinton leads McCain among them by 8 points while Obama trails McCain by 9 points. Among the 13 percent of voters who said Iraq was the key issue, the differences between McCain and the Democrats was within the margin of error. However, among the 9 percent who cited terrorism as the top issue, McCain led both Democrats by more than 60 points.

• Kentucky: McCain blows away Obama by a 2-to-1 margin (64 percent to 28 percent) and leads Clinton 53 percent to 43 percent in the quest for Kentucky's 8 electoral votes. This SurveyUSA poll was also conducted March 14-16 and the margin of error is 4.3 percent. Here, McCain trails Clinton among voters under 34, but wins in all other age groups by significant margins. He has better than 2-to-1 leads over Obama in every age group. Thirty-nine percent of voters chose the economy as the top issue and they favored McCain by 54 percent to 43 percent over Clinton, and by the wide margin over Obama that he enjoys in almost every category of this poll. Iraq was cited as the top issue by 14 percent and they heavily favored McCain over either Democrat and, as in Missouri, the same was true on the issue of terrorism, which was named by 11 percent. The actual poll figure on terrorism for McCain vs. Obama was 93 percent to 3 percent.

• Tennessee: McCain leads Obama 50 percent to 36 percent, says a Middle Tennessee State University poll conducted Feb. 11-23.. His margin over Clinton is smaller, 45 percent to 38 percent. The poll says that figure applies to Tennessee adults. When “likely voters” are asked, the margin over Obama is 53 percent to 37 percent. Mike Huckabee also leads Obama or Clinton. The poll says appears to indicate that the margin of error is as high as 8 percent.