Poll Tracker

For those following Democrat Frank Lautenberg’s bid to hold on to his Senate seat, 35 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents favor Lautenberg over his primary challenge, Rep. Rob Andrews of , who polled 20 percent. Eight percent said they would be happy with either and 28 percent are undecided. However, 61 percent of all registered Jersey voters believe the 84 year-old Lautenberg should make room for someone new and a majority of Democrats and independents agree. Andrews, from southwest Jersey, suffers from a low name recognition with less than half of Democrats knowing his name. Whatever the outcome of the primary, CQ Politics rates the race in this heavily blue state as “Democrat Favored.”

Previously reported:

• Massachusetts: No surprise here. Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are way ahead of John McCain, with Clinton leading 55 percent to 36 percent and Obama by 51 percent to 39 percent, in a Rasmussen Reports poll released April 25. Among men voters, the match-ups are close, but among women the Democrats have wide leads. Obama’s favorability rating is 59 percent, Clinton’s is 58 percent, and McCain’s is 57 percent. Forty-nine percent say the economy is the top issue compared to 24 percent who cite Iraq. Massachusetts voters do not give much of a boost to their onetime favorite son Mitt Romney as a potential McCain running mate. Forty three percent don’t think McCain should choose Romney while 34 percent say they do. In a SurveyUSA poll conducted April 11-13 linton runs ahead of McCain 56 percent to 41 percent, while Obama is in a statistical dead heat with McCain, leading him 48 percent to 46 percent. The margin of error is 4.2 percent. On Iraq, named as the top issue by 18 percent, both Democrats lead McCain by more than 40 points.

• Indiana: McCain leads Obama 51 percent to 43 percent and Clinton by 52 percent to 41 percent, according to a Research 2000 poll conducted. April 21-24. An Indianapolis Star-WTHR poll conducted April 20-23 had Obama ahead of McCain 49 percent to 41 percent and Clinton even with him at 46 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. The Boston Globe notes today that Indiana Democrats have not delivered their state in a general election since 1964.

• Minnesota: Rasmussen Reports said April 24 that both Clinton and Obama have gained on John McCain in Minnesota, a state the Democrats have won in every presidential election since 1976. Obama leads McCain by 52 percent to 38 percent while Clinton is ahead 47 percent to 42 percent. Last month, Obama had only a 4 point lead and Clinton and McCain were running even. Obama has a favorability rating of 60 percent, McCain is at 56 percent and Clinton at 51 percent.

• Nevada: McCain leads both Clinton and Obama in a general election match-up in Nevada, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted April 21. McCain is ahead of Obama 48 percent to 43 percent and Clinton by 49 percent to 38 percent. The margin of error is 4 percent. Last month, Obama led McCain by four and the race with Clinton was a dead heat.

• New York: Clinton leads McCain in her homestate by a modest 46 to 42 percent while Obama has a 45 percent to 40 percent lead, according to a Siena College poll conducted April 13-16. the margin of error is 3.9 percent. When Siena conducted its last poll in February, each Democrat led McCain by 7 points. But perhaps the big headline is that Clinton now has the highest unfavorable rating that she ever recorded in this poll. Forty eight percent of New Yorkers see her positively against 46 percent who do not. Obama’s favorability rating is 54 percent to 35 percent and McCain;s is 54 percent to 35 percent. Siena’s Stephen Greenberg says, “With a little more than six months until Election Day, New York is looking more ‘purple’ than ‘blue’ these days, since neither Clinton or Obama gets 50 percent of the vote against McCain, and both Democrats have small and shrinking leads.” SurveyUSA said in an April 11-13 New York poll that Clinton leads McCain 59 percent to 35 percent in her home state, while Obama leads 52 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. A Marist Poll conducted April 3-4 said if the election were held today McCain would run “surprisingly close” in New York to either Democrat. Clinton polls 48 percent to 46 percent against McCain, while McCain leads Obama 48 percent to 46 percent.

• Pennsylvania: McCain is leading both Democrat, according to a Strategic Vision poll conducted April 18-20. He leads Clinton 46 percent to 42 percent with 12 percent undecided and Obama by 48 percent to 40 percent, also with 12 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points.

• Colorado: McCain and Obama are in a statistical dead heat with Obama leading 46 percent to 43 percent while McCain leads Clinton 50 percent to 36 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted April 16. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. For those of you who follow the Poll Tracker links to go to the source, Rasmussen has decided to present these results via video, and there's something squirrely about the address, so we didn't include it). Rasmussen says one reason for the difference is that Obama leads McCain by 44 percent to 34 percent among unaffiliated voters while McCain beats Clinton 49 percent to 28 percent, an outcome similar to many other state polls. McCain bests Clinton among both men and women voters while holding a slimmer lead among men over Obama and trailing him among women. Obama’s favorability rating has slipped from 60 percent in February and 55 percent a month ago to 53 percent, a trend reflected also in Newsweek’s new national poll. McCain’s favorability rating is 57 percent and Clinton is way behind at 40 percent.

• Washington state: Obama leads McCain 53 percent to 40 percent while Clinton is ahead of McCain by 48 percent to 45 percent, in a Survey USA poll conducted April 14-16. The margin of error is 4 percent. Both Obama and Clinton have big leads over McCain among women voters, but it’s a split decision among men: Obama leads McCain by 7 points while Clinton trails him by the same amount. The biggest age gap is among voters under 34, who favor Obama by 42 points and Clinton by 14. Obama has an 11 point lead here over McCain among white voters. He runs ahead of McCain 55 percent to 34 percent among independents while McCain runs about even in this group with Clinton. Thirty-six percent of voters name the economy as the top issue and while Obama has a 16 point lead over McCain among them, McCain runs even with Clinton. Of the 19 percent of voters who name Iraq, both Democrats have about a 2-to-1 lead over McCain. An April 7 poll by SurveyUSA had Obama ahead of McCain by 51 percent to 44 percent while McCain was in a virtual 46 percent to 45 percent tie with Clinton.

• Florida: John McCain is leading Barack Obama 53 percent to 38 percent, with Hillary Clinton leading McCain by a statistically insignificant 45 percent to 44 percent, according to a [Rasmussen Reports poll]conducted April 10. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain is viewed favorably by 62 percent of voters, Clinton by 49 percent and Obama by 42 percent. This is one of the few states in our round-up of general election match-ups where Clinton is not the lowest on the favorability scale. The Rasmussen Reports poll, conducted March 12, had McCain over Obama 47 percent to 43 percent and ahead of Clinton 47 percent to 40 percent. In late March, Clinton had a statistically insignificant lead of 44 percent to 42 percent over McCain, while Obama trails him 46 percent to 37 percent. The margin of error is 2.9 percent. (Quinnipiac University, conducted March 24 – 31). Earlier, Public Policy Polling had McCain ahead of Clinton 47 percent to 43 percent and leading Obama 50 percent to 39 percent in a survey conducted March 15-16. The margin of error was 3.9 percent.

This set of polls was conducted by SurveyUSA April 11-13:

• California: In this “must” state for Democrats, Clinton leads McCain 53 percent to 40 percent and Obama is ahead of him 50 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. The biggest gender difference is Clinton’s 18 point lead among women voters. The biggest age gap is under-34 voters, where Clinton leads 65 percent to 26 percent and Obama has a 64 percent to 31 percent edge. Both Obama and Clinton have leads in the 2-to-1 range among the 28 percent of the voter sample that is Hispanic. Among independents, it’s Clinton who does best against McCain, leading him 51 percent to 36 percent while the difference with Obama is statistically insignificant. Thirty-six percent of voters say the economy is the top issue and Obama and Clinton both lead McCain by about 10 points. Iraq is second at 16 percent and Clinton leads McCain among these voters by 41 points and Obama leads him by 48 points. Immigration was cited by 11 percent and McCain has 2-to-1 leads over both Democrats.

• New Mexico: This race is very competitive with either Democrat in the field, with McCain leading Clinton 49 percent to 46 percent, and Obama by 50 percent to 44 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. The change here is that a mid-March SurveyUSA poll had Clinton also ahead of McCain. McCain has double-digit leads over both Democrats among men voters but gives each a run for their money among women voters, even though he is a little behind. The biggest age gaps are in the 35-to-49 group where McCain leads each Democrat by double-digits, while Clinton leads McCain by 18 points among voters under 34, doing better than Obama among this set. Thirty-four percent of voters cite the economy as the top issue and McCain is favored above both Democrats by an identical 51 percent to 43 percent margin. Iraq is the second top issue at 15 percent and both Democrats have margins over McCain in the 30 point range among them. McCain runs better here among independents than either Democrat – 22 points better than Clinton and 14 points better than Obama. In an April 8 survey, Rasmussen Reports had Obama leading McCain 45 percent to 42 percent and McCain ahead of Clinton 46 percent to 43 percent, both within the 4.5 percent margin of error.

• Missouri:This crucial swing state is competitive, with Clinton leading McCain 47 percent to 46 percent and McCain leading Obama by 50 percent to 42 percent. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. In a mid-March SurveyUSA poll, McCain’s lead over Obama had been 53 percent to 39 percent. There is not much of a gender gap here. Among age groups, McCain leads both Democrats by almost 30 points, while both Democrats lead McCain among the under-34 group by similar margins. Looking at the breakdown by race, Clinton and McCain run closely among white voters, while McCain has a 15 point edge over Obama among white voters. Forty-four percent of voters say the economy is the top issue and, among them, Clinton leads McCain by 14 points while Obama leads by only 3. Health care edges Iraq here as the second top issue (12 percent) with Clinton enjoying a 31 point lead over McCain. Iraq is third at 11 percent and both Democrats have better than a 10 point lead over McCain here. McCain runs 17 points ahead of Clinton among independents but the contest with Obama is within the margin of error.

• Ohio:Clinton leads McCain 52 percent to 43 percent, while McCain runs closely with Obama, leading him 47 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. Gender is significant only for Clinton who leads McCain among women voters by 23 points. Age does not appear to be as much a differentiator as it is in other states. It’s interesting that the overall numbers indicate a competitive race because both Democrats have big leads over McCain on each of the top three election issues cited by voters. Nearly half of the state’s voters say the economy is the top issue and they favor Obama or Clinton by large margins. Health care is the second top issue here (12 percent) and both Democrats lead McCain in the 2-to-1 neighborhood. An April 8 survey by Rasmussen Reports put McCain in front of Obama 47 percent to 40 percent and ahead of Clinton 47 percent to 42 percent, with a 4.5 percent margin of error.

• Oregon: Clinton runs evenly with McCain, edging him 47 percent to 46 percent while Obama has a 51 percent to 42 percent advantage. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. Both Democrats lead among women by margins in the mid-to-upper teens. The most significant “age gap” is among voters over 55 where both Democrats have double-digit leads. Obama also has an 18 point lead over McCain among voters under 34. McCain has a 19 point lead over Clinton among independents and a more modest 8 point lead over Obama. Thirty-one percent name the economy as the top issue, and among them, Obama does far better against McCain than Clinton, leading him 61 percent to 33 percent, while Clinton leads by 49 percent to 41 percent. Immigration was named as the second top issue (15 percent) and these voters prefer McCain by whopping margins of 66 points or more. Health care is third at 14 percent, and both Democrats lead McCain on this issue by almost 3-to-1. Among the 13 percent who named Iraq, both Democrats are at or near a 2-to-1 margin over McCain.

• Virginia: McCain has the lead in this supposedly “turning purple” state, with a 55 percent to 39 percent edge over Clinton and 52 percent to 44 percent over Obama. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. That’s a significant change from the SurveyUSA poll conducted in mid-March in which both Democrats were running evenly with McCain. (It should be noted that a Rasmussen Reports poll in late March showed McCain with big leads over both Democrats). He has a 24 point edge over Clinton among men voters. He also has an 18 point margin over Clinton among voters under 34 while running only 5 points behind Obama. He leads Clinton among white voters by 25 points and Obama by 28 points. Independents prefer McCain 63 percent to 28 percent over Clinton and by 54 percent to 41 percent over Obama. Forty-two percent cite the economy as the top issue and the biggest winner here is Obama who bests McCain 60 percent to 36 percent. Iraq is cited by 14 percent, among whom Clinton leads McCain by 20 points while Obama trails him by 6 points.

• Wisconsin:Like neighboring Minnesota, the race is close in either match-up. McCain and Clinton are tied at 46 percent each, while Obama is ahead 49 percent to 46 percent. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. McCain has a 16 point edge over Clinton among men voters, while both Democrats have mid-teens lead over McCain among women voters. Age and race are not big factors. Obama runs evenly with McCain among independents, but Clinton trails him by 17 points. The economy is named as the top issue by 40 percent, but none of the candidates has a big lead over the other. Among the 14 percent who chose Iraq, Obama’s lead over McCain is 4-to-1 and Clinton’s is more than 3-to-1. In a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted March 26, McCain ran neck-and-neck with Obama but was ahead of Clinton by 11 points.

• Kansas: It’s all McCain here. He leads Clinton 57 percent to 36 percent and Obama by 54 percent to 37 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. There’s no gender gap because McCain has big leads among both men and women, and the only age group in which there is much of a difference is the 18-to34s – where McCain has a 21 percent margin over Clinton. McCain has big leads over each Democrat among white voters. Independents overwhelmingly favor him over either. Among the 36 percent of voters who said the economy was the top issue, McCain leads both Democrats and, unlike many of the other states in this round-up, among the 14 percent who name Iraq as the top issue, he runs pretty evenly with both Democrats. Eleven percent of voters cited immigration as the top issue and they favor McCain by margins of 4-to-1 or more.

• Alabama: McCain leads Clinton 60 percent to 34 percent and Obama by 64 percent to 32 percent. The margin of error is 4.2 percent. He leads in all gender and age groups by large margins. Among the 73 percent of voters in the sample who are white, McCain leads Clinton 72 percent to 23 percent and Obama by 80 percent to 15 percent. Among the 24 percent who are black, Clinton leads McCain 65 percent to 25 percent and Obama leads him by 84 percent to 15 percent. Independents favor McCain over each Democrat by about 3-to-1. He has leads of 20 points or more over Obama and Clinton among the 35 percent of voters who name the economy as the top issue. The second top issue (12 percent) was fighting terrorism, and he had identical 87 percent to 13 percent leads over both Democrats. For the 11 percent who chose Iraq, Clinton led McCain by 9 points and Obama edged him by 4 points. Eleven percent also named immigration, and there, McCain led Obama 97 percent to 3 percent and Clinton by 83 percent to 15 percent. Rasmussen Reports had McCain leading Obama by 55 percent to 37 percent and Clinton by 51 percent to 40 percent in a survey conducted April 2.

• Iowa: McCain leads Clinton 48 percent to 42 percent, and Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 42 percent. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. McCain runs 19 points better among men voters than Clinton and, while both Democrats beat McCain among women voters, Obama has better numbers than Clinton, leading McCain by 15 points to her 7 points. The biggest age gap is among voters under 34 where Obama leads McCain 58 percent to 33 percent. Independents favor McCain over Clinton 58 percent to 32 percent and over Obama by 49 percent to 41 percent. The economy is cited by 37 percent as the top issue and the differences among candidates are not very dramatic. Iraq is named by 20 percent and Clinton leads McCain 50 percent to 33 percent and Obama leads him 61 percent to 32 percent. Immigration was a big issue in Iowa for the Republicans during the caucuses, and of the 11 percent who cited it as a top issue here, McCain led Clinton 71 percent to 20 percent and Obama by 59 percent to 35 percent. A March 31 poll by Rasmussen Reports had a different result for a McCain-Clinton match-up, saying Obama was ahead of McCain by 46 percent to 42 percent but that McCain trounced Clinton 51 percent to 36 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent.

• Kentucky: A striking gap between how Clinton and Obama would fare against McCain. McCain has a statistically insignificant 48 percent to 46 percent lead over Clinton, but a 63 percent to 29 percent lead over Obama. The biggest gender number is the 71 percent to 23 percent edge McCain has over Obama among men voters. McCain also trounces Obama in every age group. He has a 41 point lead over Obama among white voters compared to a 7 percent lead over Clinton. Forty-three percent of Kentuckians name the economy as the top issue and McCain is way ahead of Obama on this one. Iraq is the one issue where Obama has any traction against McCain. Of the 13 percent who said this was the top issue, Obama led McCain 55 percent to 40 percent while Clinton led 49 percent to 35 percent.

Here are state-by-state polls posted before last week’s avalanche from SurveyUSA:

• North Carolina: In mid-March, John McCain had a 9 point lead over Barack Obama in this state and ran 16 percent ahead of Hillary Clinton in a Rasmussen Reports poll, but in its new survey conducted April 10, Obama and McCain are even at 47 percent. McCain still has a double-digit lead over Clinton but it is now 51 percent to 40 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent.

• Louisiana: McCain leads Barack Obama 52 percent to 41 percent and Hillary Clinton by 58 percent to 36 percent in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted April 9. McCain is viewed favorably by 64 percent of voters, Obama by 53 percent and Clinton by 37 percent.

• Alaska: McCain leads Clinton by 25 points and Obama by 48 percent to 43 percent, with a 4.5 percent margin of error, in a poll conducted April 7. McCain’s favorable rating is 63 percent, Obama’s is 55 percent and Clinton’s is 35 percent.

• Montana: McCain leads Obama by 48 percent to 43 percent, and is way ahead of Clinton, 54 percent to 36 percent, according to a poll conducted April 6. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Rasmussen was impressed by Obama’s showing given George W. Bush’s 25 point victory in 2004. McCain is viewed favorably by 56 percent of voters, Obama by 54 percent and Clinton by 42 percent.

• Connecticut: Obama has a 52 percent to 35 percent lead over McCain in Connecticut, while Clinton leads McCain by only 45 percent to 42 percent, according to a [Quinnipiac University poll]conducted March 19-24. The margin of error is 2.4 percent. These results are similar to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted in mid-March. A good deal of Obama’s strength comes from independents who favor him 48 percent to 35 percent and voters under 45 who back him by 63 percent to 35 percent. Obama also has a 9 point lead among white voters. - The interesting thing about this poll is the extent to which it mirrors what the national polls are saying about the challenges facing Clinton. Reflecting the national findings of an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released yesterday, Clinton suffers in Connecticut from high negatives, with 47 percent of voters viewing her unfavorably to 46 percent who view her favorably. Obama’s favorability rating is 59 to 24 percent and McCain’s is 52 percent to 31 percent. Democrats say Obama would be a good president by a 56 percent to 28 percent margin with 31 percent of his supporters citing his fresh ideas and 19 percent citing his intelligence. Democrats say Clinton would be a good president by a 49 percent to 43 percent with 48 percent of her supporters pointing to her experience and 27 percent to her intelligence. But again, this poll mirrors a finding about Clinton that has shown up in national polls as well. Of her critics, 25 percent say she is dishonest. USAToday/Gallup had did a March 14-16 survey in which 44 percent considered her honest and trustworthy while 53 percent did not.

• Nevada: Obama and Clinton have small but statistically insignificant leads over McCain, according to a Rasmussen Reports conducted March 19. Obama leads 45 percent to 41 percent while Clinton is ahead 44 percent to 43 percent, both within a 4.5 percent margin of error. In mid-February, Obama had led 50 percent to 38 percent, while McCain led Clinton 49 percent to 40 percent, which is reflective of the slide Obama has taken in state and national polls during March. Rasmussen notes that Nevada has voted with the winner in the last seven elections, and in the last four, the winning margin was no larger than 4 points. Thirty-nine percent of Nevadans say the economy is the top issue and only 17 percent of them rate it as good or excellent.

• Kansas:McCain leads Clinton 55 percent to 36 percent and Obama by 51 percent to 39 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. McCain beats Clinton in all age groups and lags Obama only among voters under 34. He has leads each Democrat by more than 20 points among white voters who made up 87 percent of the sample. More than half of Kansans say they attend religious services regular and McCain leads by 2-to-1 among them. Twenty-seven percent describe themselves as Evangelicals and, there, McCain’s leads are in the 3-to-1 range. Thirty-six percent of voters cite the economy as the top issue and, in this state, McCain leads Clinton 54 percent to 38 percent and Obama by roughly the same amount as the poll’s margin of error. Among the 12 percent of voters most concerned about Iraq, Clinton and Obama lead McCain but by less than in some other states (an 11 point edge for Clinton and 9 points for Obama). Immigration was cited by 11 percent and McCain’s leads are 3-to-1. His lead on fighting terrorism among the 7 percent of voters who placed that first is 76 percent to 22 percent over Clinton and 87 percent to 11 percent over Obama.

• Arkansas:** Clinton trails McCain in a general election match-up in her home state of Arkansas and Obama is not even close, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll() conducted March 18. McCain leads Clinton 50 percent to 43 percent and Obama by 59 percent to 30 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain far outpaces Clinton in favorability ratings, among voters by 66 percent to 50 percent. The economy is regarded as the top issue, with 48 percent of voters citing it, and among them, just 14 percent rate the economy good or excellent.

• Georgia: Rasmussen, in a poll conducted March 20, showed McCain leading Obama 53 percent to 40 percent and Clinton 54 percent to 34 percent. Georgia voters also named the economy as the most important issue (45 percent) and only 15 percent said the economy was good or excellent.

• Kentucky: McCain blows away Obama by a 2-to-1 margin (64 percent to 28 percent) and leads Clinton 53 percent to 43 percent in the quest for Kentucky's 8 electoral votes. This SurveyUSA poll was also conducted March 14-16 and the margin of error is 4.3 percent. Here, McCain trails Clinton among voters under 34, but wins in all other age groups by significant margins. He has better than 2-to-1 leads over Obama in every age group. Thirty-nine percent of voters chose the economy as the top issue and they favored McCain by 54 percent to 43 percent over Clinton, and by the wide margin over Obama that he enjoys in almost every category of this poll. Iraq was cited as the top issue by 14 percent and they heavily favored McCain over either Democrat and, as in Missouri, the same was true on the issue of terrorism, which was named by 11 percent. The actual poll figure on terrorism for McCain vs. Obama was 93 percent to 3 percent.

• Tennessee: McCain leads Obama 50 percent to 36 percent, says a Middle Tennessee State University poll conducted Feb. 11-23.. His margin over Clinton is smaller, 45 percent to 38 percent. The poll says that figure applies to Tennessee adults. When “likely voters” are asked, the margin over Obama is 53 percent to 37 percent. Mike Huckabee also leads Obama or Clinton. The poll says appears to indicate that the margin of error is as high as 8 percent.