If the Polls Are Right, Clinton Will Win (But By Enough?)

April 22, 2008 11:03 AM | | Comments (0)

InsiderAdvantage's final Pennsylvania poll released this morning falls within the range of the seven polls that came out yesterday, putting Hillary Clinton ahead of Barack Obama by 49 percent to 42 percent, with 9 percent undecided. The poll was conducted last night and has a 3.6 percent margin of error. Monday's polls had two putting Clinton ahead by 10, two by 7, one by 6, one by 5 and one by a statistically insignificant 3. The biggest outlier so far of all the polls since the weekend is American Research Group whose April 17-19 survey had Clinton ahead by 13.

Also today:

  • A final Zogby poll conducted April 20-21 has Clinton up by 51 percent to 41 percent with 6 percent "not sure." The margin of error is 3.8 percent.

  • American Research Group now posts an even bigger lead for Clinton than it did in its previous poll. Its April 20-21 survey has her ahead 56 percent to 40 percent, with a 4 point margin of error. It had given her a 13 point lead on Monday.

The question is whether a Clinton victory will be by enough of a margin to revive her campaign, especially after a CQ Politics district-by-district analysis last week showed she is not likely to walk away from Pennsylvania with many more delegates than Obama.

Check out these previews of tonight's vote:

Here is a round-up of the polls that have come out over the weekend and yesterday, from high to low:

  • Suffolk University: Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 52 percent to 42 percent, with 4 percent undecided, in a poll conducted April 19-20. The margin of error is 4 percent. A fifth of Democrats said they'd vote for John McCain if their choice for Democratic nominee does not win and 4 percent said they'd vote for Ralph Nader.
  • InsiderAdvantage: Clinton leads 49 percent to 39 percent with 12 percent undecided in this poll conducted April 20. The margin of error is 3.4 percent. InsiderAdvantage's Matt Towery attributes the large undecided number to "the barrage of negative TV commercials and attack statements...When a campaign becomes a blow-for-blow blood-fest played out in news media, that usually drives up the number of undecided voters."
  • Strategic Vision: A survey conducted April 18-20 showed Clinton leading Obama 48 percent to 41 percent with 11 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points. As noted yesterday, the undecideds in most of the past primaries have broken for Clinton. In a look-ahead to the general election, Strategic Vision said John McCain was ahead of Clinton 46 percent to 42 percent and Obama by 48 percent to 40 percent.
  • Quinnipiac University: This poll also has Clinton ahead by 7 points, 51 percent to 44 percent in a survey conducted April 18-20. The margin of error is 3.1 points. Quinnipiac's Clay Richards said, "Pennsylvania voters apparently made up their minds a couple of weeks ago and nothing has happened since to change them."
  • SurveyUSA: A poll conducted April 18-20 has Clinton at 50 percent to 44 percent over Obama with a 3.8 percent margin of error.
  • Rasmussen Reports: Clinton leads Obama 49 percent to 44 percent in a survey conducted April 20. Margin of error is 4 points. Seven percent are undecided.This is a state where Clinton's favorability is positive, at 71 percent of likely primary voters compared to 69 percent for Obama. But less than half of each candidates' supporters have a favorable view of their rival.
  • McClatchy/MSNBC Pittsburgh Post Gazette: Clinton 48 percent, Obama 43 percent, 8 percent undecided and a 4 point margin of error. Conducted April 17-18.
  • Zogby: Clinton 46 percent. Obama 43 percent, and a 4.1 percent margin of error. Conducted April 18-19.
  • Public Policy Polling: Clinton is in a tight race with Obama at 49 percent to 46 percent with a 2 percent margin of error in a survey conducted April 19-20.

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