Clinton Ahead in Pa., But Polls Differ Again on How Much

April 20, 2008 2:47 PM | | Comments (0)

Three polls are out today on the Pennsylvania race: one giving Hillary Clinton a 13 point lead, one a 5 point lead and the third a statistically insignificant 3 point edge.

Clinton has a 48 percent to 43 percent lead over Barack Obama with 8 percent undecided, in a McClatchy/MSNBC/Pittsburgh Post Gazette poll conducted April 17-18. The margin of error is 4 percent. The Gazette said, “The findings suggested that after six weeks of campaigning against a significantly better funded candidate, Mrs. Clinton retains the opportunity for a tactical victory.” A piece in the Boston Globe also underlined the importance of undecided voters, noting that in three Pennsylvania polls conducted last week, this group made up 9 percent to 13 percent, and the Globe observed: “Through 27 contests where exit polling on late deciders is available, Clinton has won those voters in 20.” However, among those voters who have made a choice, 92 percent of both Obama and Clinton supporters said they would stick to it.

NBC Political Director Check Todd also saw signs in the poll that undecideds could break for Clinton and said, "While the poll shows Clinton with a narrow lead (and arguably a narrowing lead), the clues inside the numbers indicate this is her race to lose and that her lead could expand."

In the other two polls:

  • American Research Group says its April 17-19 survey shows Clinton ahead 54 percent to 41 percent with a 4 point margin of error.
  • Zogby reports its April 18-19 survey has Clinton ahead 46 percent to 43 percent, which is within its 4.1 percent margin of error.

In the McClatchy poll, Clinton’s beer-and-a-shot moment did not seem to do her much good. This was the first time we saw a poll that broke out beer drinkers as a demographic, but the survey says that Clinton and Obama were in a 44 percent each tie among the 28 percent of voters who identified themselves as beer drinkers. Her story about her gun-toting Pennsylvania childhood may have done her more good: among the 38 percent in the poll who said they were gun owners, Clinton led 53 percent to 28 percent. Clinton also led 56 percent to 31 percent among the 16 percent of voters who said they were hunters and 54 percent to 33 percent among the 24 percent of respondents who said they were bowlers. Is this the class divide that a Boston Globe article discusses today?

A little more than half of voters saw last Wednesday’s presidential debate and 44 percent thought Clinton performed better compared to 25 percent for Obama. But 93 percent said the debate did not change their mind. (The poll didn’t ask how Charlie Gibson and George Stephanopoulos did). There is a notable divide by religion. Protestants (31 percent of the sample) support Obama by 60 percent to 31 percent, Catholics (41 percent) support Clinton 63 percent to 30 percent as do Jewish voters (8 percent), by 73 percent to 17 percent.

Twenty-eight percent of voters said they would make their choice based on the candidate who “cares about the issues I care about,” and of those Clinton leads 56 percent to 32 percent. Change is the motivator for 26 percent, and there Obama leads Clinton 68 percent to 28 percent. One-fifth cite experience and Clinton leads among them by 91 percent to 4 percent. Thirteen percent say “honest and trustworthy,” and Obama leads among them by 49 percent to 36 percent.

Nearly half of voters cite the economy as the top issue and they break 50 percent to 41 percent for Clinton. Iraq is second at 18 percent, and Clinton leads 47 percent to 40 percent on that issue. For the 16 percent who said health care, Clinton is the favorite by a 52 percent to 35 percent margin.

Fifty-seven percent of Obama supporters believe Clinton can defeat John McCain in November compared to 48 percent of Clinton supporters who believe Obama can win.

Obama and Clinton ran evenly among men while she posted an 11 point lead among women voters. Obama leads 65 percent to 31 percent among voters under 35 while Clinton has a 54 percent to 36 percent margin among voters over 50. Clinton leads 58 percent to 33 percent among white voters (76 percent of the sample) while Obama has a 83 percent to 10 percent lead among black voters (19 percent). Clinton holds a 51 percent to 43 percent lead among union households.

Post A Comment


(for verification only; will not be published with your comment)