Poll Tracker

Massachusetts: Clinton runs ahead of McCain 56 percent to 41 percent, while Obama is in a statistical dead heat with McCain, leading him 48 percent to 46 percent. The margin of error is 4.2 percent. Clinton leads McCain among women voters by more than 2-to-1 while he has a 9 point edge over her among men. McCain leads Obama by 17 among men voters and trails among women voters by 19 percent. The biggest differential in age groups are the under-34 voters where Clinton and Obama both lead McCain by about 2-to-1. The economy is the top issue for 36 percent of voters and among them, McCain slightly trails Clinton and slightly leads Obama. On Iraq, named as the top issue by 18 percent, both Democrats lead McCain by more than 40 points.

New Mexico: This race is very competitive with either Democrat in the field, with McCain leading Clinton 49 percent to 46 percent, and Obama by 50 percent to 44 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. The change here is that a mid-March SurveyUSA poll had Clinton also ahead of McCain. McCain has double-digit leads over both Democrats among men voters but gives each a run for their money among women voters, even though he is a little behind. The biggest age gaps are in the 35-to-49 group where McCain leads each Democrat by double-digits, while Clinton leads McCain by 18 points among voters under 34, doing better than Obama among this set. Thirty-four percent of voters cite the economy as the top issue and McCain is favored above both Democrats by an identical 51 percent to 43 percent margin. Iraq is the second top issue at 15 percent and both Democrats have margins over McCain in the 30 point range among them. McCain runs better here among independents than either Democrat – 22 points better than Clinton and 14 points better than Obama.

Missouri:This crucial swing state is competitive, with Clinton leading McCain 47 percent to 46 percent and McCain leading Obama by 50 percent to 42 percent. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. In a mid-March SurveyUSA poll, McCain’s lead over Obama had been 53 percent to 39 percent. There is not much of a gender gap here. Among age groups, McCain leads both Democrats by almost 30 points, while both Democrats lead McCain among the under-34 group by similar margins. Looking at the breakdown by race, Clinton and McCain run closely among white voters, while McCain has a 15 point edge over Obama among white voters. Forty-four percent of voters say the economy is the top issue and, among them, Clinton leads McCain by 14 points while Obama leads by only 3. Health care edges Iraq here as the second top issue (12 percent) with Clinton enjoying a 31 point lead over McCain. Iraq is third at 11 percent and both Democrats have better than a 10 point lead over McCain here. McCain runs 17 points ahead of Clinton among independents but the contest with Obama is within the margin of error.

Ohio:Clinton leads McCain 52 percent to 43 percent, while McCain runs closely with Obama, leading him 47 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. Gender is significant only for Clinton who leads McCain among women voters by 23 points. Age does not appear to be as much a differentiator as it is in other states. It’s interesting that the overall numbers indicate a competitive race because both Democrats have big leads over McCain on each of the top three election issues cited by voters. Nearly half of the state’s voters say the economy is the top issue and they favor Obama or Clinton by large margins. Health care is the second top issue here (12 percent) and both Democrats lead McCain in the 2-to-1 neighborhood.

Oregon: Clinton runs evenly with McCain, edging him 47 percent to 46 percent while Obama has a 51 percent to 42 percent advantage. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. Both Democrats lead among women by margins in the mid-to-upper teens. The most significant “age gap” is among voters over 55 where both Democrats have double-digit leads. Obama also has an 18 point lead over McCain among voters under 34. McCain has a 19 point lead over Clinton among independents and a more modest 8 point lead over Obama. Thirty-one percent name the economy as the top issue, and among them, Obama does far better against McCain than Clinton, leading him 61 percent to 33 percent, while Clinton leads by 49 percent to 41 percent. Immigration was named as the second top issue (15 percent) and these voters prefer McCain by whopping margins of 66 points or more. Health care is third at 14 percent, and both Democrats lead McCain on this issue by almost 3-to-1. Among the 13 percent who named Iraq, both Democrats are at or near a 2-to-1 margin over McCain.

Virginia: McCain has the lead in this supposedly “turning purple” state, with a 55 percent to 39 percent edge over Clinton and 52 percent to 44 percent over Obama. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. That’s a significant change from the SurveyUSA poll conducted in mid-March in which both Democrats were running evenly with McCain. (It should be noted that a Rasmussen Reports poll in late March showed McCain with big leads over both Democrats). He has a 24 point edge over Clinton among men voters. He also has an 18 point margin over Clinton among voters under 34 while running only 5 points behind Obama. He leads Clinton among white voters by 25 points and Obama by 28 points. Independents prefer McCain 63 percent to 28 percent over Clinton and by 54 percent to 41 percent over Obama. Forty-two percent cite the economy as the top issue and the biggest winner here is Obama who bests McCain 60 percent to 36 percent. Iraq is cited by 14 percent, among whom Clinton leads McCain by 20 points while Obama trails him by 6 points.

Minnesota: This race looks tight with Clinton leading McCain 47 percent to 46 percent and Obama ahead of him by 49 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. The gender gap here is most pronounced in a McCain-Clinton match-up with him leading among men 54 percent to 40 percent and Clinton leading among women, 54 percent to 39 percent. Obama also has a big lead among women. There’s not a lot of difference among most of the age groups, although Obama leads McCain among voters under 34 by 57 percent to 36 percent. Race also is not a big factor among the state’s mostly white voters. Clinton lags McCain among independents by 16 points while Obama trails by 7. Forty-five percent of voters say the economy is the top issue and none of the candidates are runaway winners among them. However, for the 14 percent who cited Iraq, both Democrats ran ahead of McCain by large margins.

Wisconsin:Like neighboring Minnesota, the race is close in either match-up. McCain and Clinton are tied at 46 percent each, while Obama is ahead 49 percent to 46 percent. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. McCain has a 16 point edge over Clinton among men voters, while both Democrats have mid-teens lead over McCain among women voters. Age and race are not big factors. Obama runs evenly with McCain among independents, but Clinton trails him by 17 points. The economy is named as the top issue by 40 percent, but none of the candidates has a big lead over the other. Among the 14 percent who chose Iraq, Obama’s lead over McCain is 4-to-1 and Clinton’s is more than 3-to-1.

Kansas: It’s all McCain here. He leads Clinton 57 percent to 36 percent and Obama by 54 percent to 37 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. There’s no gender gap because McCain has big leads among both men and women, and the only age group in which there is much of a difference is the 18-to34s – where McCain has a 21 percent margin over Clinton. McCain has big leads over each Democrat among white voters. Independents overwhelmingly favor him over either. Among the 36 percent of voters who said the economy was the top issue, McCain leads both Democrats and, unlike many of the other states in this round-up, among the 14 percent who name Iraq as the top issue, he runs pretty evenly with both Democrats. Eleven percent of voters cited immigration as the top issue and they favor McCain by margins of 4-to-1 or more.

Alabama: McCain leads Clinton 60 percent to 34 percent and Obama by 64 percent to 32 percent. The margin of error is 4.2 percent. He leads in all gender and age groups by large margins. Among the 73 percent of voters in the sample who are white, McCain leads Clinton 72 percent to 23 percent and Obama by 80 percent to 15 percent. Among the 24 percent who are black, Clinton leads McCain 65 percent to 25 percent and Obama leads him by 84 percent to 15 percent. Independents favor McCain over each Democrat by about 3-to-1. He has leads of 20 points or more over Obama and Clinton among the 35 percent of voters who name the economy as the top issue. The second top issue (12 percent) was fighting terrorism, and he had identical 87 percent to 13 percent leads over both Democrats. For the 11 percent who chose Iraq, Clinton led McCain by 9 points and Obama edged him by 4 points. Eleven percent also named immigration, and there, McCain led Obama 97 percent to 3 percent and Clinton by 83 percent to 15 percent.

Iowa: McCain leads Clinton 48 percent to 42 percent, and Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 42 percent. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. McCain runs 19 points better among men voters than Clinton and, while both Democrats beat McCain among women voters, Obama has better numbers than Clinton, leading McCain by 15 points to her 7 points. The biggest age gap is among voters under 34 where Obama leads McCain 58 percent to 33 percent. Independents favor McCain over Clinton 58 percent to 32 percent and over Obama by 49 percent to 41 percent. The economy is cited by 37 percent as the top issue and the differences among candidates are not very dramatic. Iraq is named by 20 percent and Clinton leads McCain 50 percent to 33 percent and Obama leads him 61 percent to 32 percent. Immigration was a big issue in Iowa for the Republicans during the caucuses, and of the 11 percent who cited it as a top issue here, McCain led Clinton 71 percent to 20 percent and Obama by 59 percent to 35 percent.

Kentucky: A striking gap between how Clinton and Obama would fare against McCain. McCain has a statistically insignificant 48 percent to 46 percent lead over Clinton, but a 63 percent to 29 percent lead over Obama. The biggest gender number is the 71 percent to 23 percent edge McCain has over Obama among men voters. McCain also trounces Obama in every age group. He has a 41 point lead over Obama among white voters compared to a 7 percent lead over Clinton. Forty-three percent of Kentuckians name the economy as the top issue and McCain is way ahead of Obama on this one. Iraq is the one issue where Obama has any traction against McCain. Of the 13 percent who said this was the top issue, Obama led McCain 55 percent to 40 percent while Clinton led 49 percent to 35 percent.