Two new national polls came out late today, one from New York Times/CBS News and the other from NBC News/Wall Street Journal. Times/CBS News has Obama leading by a statistically significant amount, while the NBC News/Journal poll has Obama ahead but within the margin of error.

Barack Obama has widened his lead over Hillary Clinton to 8 points in a new New York Times/CBS News poll conducted April 25-29, an increase over the margins he held in April and March. Obama is ahead 46 percent to 38 percent with 14 percent undecided and a 5 point margin of error. That undecided number is up 6 points since early April. The other point to take into account is that this lead is among Democrats who have already participated in a primary this year or plan to. When all registered Democrats are considered, the two are essentially even.

In the NBC/Journal poll, conducted April 25-28, Obama leads by 46 percent to 43 percent among Democrats (this is regardless of whether they voted or not in the primaries) with 7 percent undecided and the margin of error at 3.1 percent. In its general election match-up, the poll has McCain running nearly even with either Democrat which the Journal says "clouds the outcome of a race that was expected to be tough for Republicans."

In a sharp reversal from March, more Democrats believe Hillary Clinton is the stronger candidate against John McCain compared to Barack Obama, according to a poll conducted April 28-29 by Fox News/Opinion Dynamics. Forty-eight percent of Democrats say that, versus 38 percent who give Obama the better chance. In mid-March, Obama had led Clinton by 10 points on this score. The numbers may reflect the campaign stumbles Obama has had in recent weeks, prompting some Democrats to believe he is not ready for prime time in a general election contest. One finding of this poll (below) is that a large majority of voters across partisan lines believe that Obama has been hurt by the Jeremiah Wright controversy.

Democrats want Clinton to win the party’s nomination by a 44 percent to 41 percent over Obama with 8 percent saying “neither” and 7 percent “don’t know.” However, the margin of error for the Democratic sample is 5 percent. Statistically, it’s not much change from March when the numbers were Clinton by 40 percent to 38 percent. Clinton did, though, cut into Obama’s edge among independents. In mid-March he led Clinton 30 percent to 21 percent, with a big undecided, and now his lead is 33 percent to 30 percent.

Both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are comfortably ahead of John McCain in a New Jersey general election match-up, but a Monmouth University/Gannett poll found suggestions of what it described as “buyers’ remorse” in the 10-point victory the state’s Democrats gave Clinton in its Feb. 5 primary. Obama leads John McCain by 56 percent to 32 percent and Clinton is ahead by 52 percent to 38 percent. But now, Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they favor Obama over Clinton by 45 percent to 38 percent. Obama’s favorability ratings is 58 percent to 27 percent, Clinton’s is 46 percent to 43 percent and McCain comes out on the negative side with 45 percent who view him unfavorably compared to 39 percent.

Kentucky, which has 60 delegates, votes May 20 and a SurveyUSA poll conducted April 26-28 shows Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama 63 percent to 27 percent. We assure you this is beyond the margin of error. Clinton has commanding leads over Obama on every one of the eight top campaign issues in the poll, as well as all gender and age groups.

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are in a statistical dead-heat in Indiana, according to a poll conducted April 23-24 by Gauge Market Research and Howey Politics Indiana. The numbers are Obama 47 percent to 45 percent over Clinton, with 8 percent undecided and a 4.1 percent margin of error. That contrasts with a survey by Public Policy Polling released yesterday showing Clinton up by 8.

In the favorability ratings, Clinton is viewed unfavorably by a 42 percent to 37 percent margin with 20 percent neutral. Obama is viewd favorably by 41 percent to 34 percent with 24 percent neutral, while John McCain has a 47 percent to 25 percent favorability rating with 27 percent neutral.

Overall, Indiana voters are divided at 43 percent each about whether to stay in Iraq or pull out. However, Democrats want immediate withdrawal by an overwhelming 71 percent to 15 percent margin.

And, if there was any doubt, the favorite college or university sports team among Hoosiers is Indiana university, by far, with 37 percent in its camp, compared to 20 percent for Purdue. Notre Dame didn't even get out of single digits. Unlike Iraq, the numbers for the Democrats are pretty similar to the overall statewide results.

So, what comes to mind when you think of Barack Obama, John McCain and Hillary Clinton. Gallup put that question to its “panel” of 1,008 adults during April 25-27 and these “what comes to mind results” came back: the top impression of Obama was about his inexperience, with 15 percent choosing that compared to 12 percent in Nov. 2006. A similar number said “dishonest/don’t trust” about Clinton compared to 6 percent in 2006. And 12 percent said McCain was too old compared to 2 percent in two years ago.

Here were the next three top characteristics for each:

• Obama: Thirteen percent said “fresh face with new ideas/good change,” 9 percent liked him and 9 percent disliked him.
• McCain: Twelve percent said “good man/like him,” 10 percent said “more of the same” and called him another George Bush, and tying at 8 percent were “military background” and “don’t like him.”
• Clinton: Thirteen percent said “past baggage associated with Bill,” 10 percent said “qualified, capable of being president,” and 9 percent disliked her.

Two polls today show Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton in North Carolina, but by smaller margins than earlier.

For the other state that votes next Tuesday, Indiana, one poll out today shows Clinton ahead by 8.

Obama's North Carolina lead is 51 percent to 37 percent, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted April 28. The margin of error is 4 percent. In a survey Rasmussen conducted April 3, Obama had led by 23 points. Clinton’s numbers are helped by her 2-to-1 lead over Obama among white voters making less than $60,000 a year and among white voters in general, where her margin is 15 points. Obama’s favorability rating among likely voters is 71 percent compared to 62 percent for Clinton. Thirty-two percent say Clinton should drop out and 20 percent say the same about Obama. Both candidates are close when voters are asked who would have the best chance against John McCain in November – 89 percent say Obama while 84 percent say Clinton.

A SurveyUSA poll conducted April 26-28 shows the race becoming closer than Rasmussen's results showed, with Obama ahead by 49 percent to 44 percent, having what was once a 10 point advantage. There are 3 percent undecided and a 3.7 percent margin of error. Clinton now has her largest lead among white voters in this poll, beating Obama by 2-to-1. They make up 61 percent of the sample. Obama leads among black voters (33 percent of the sample) by 87 percent to 11 percent.

A Public Policy Polling survey released yesterday had Obama’s one-time 25 point margin down to 12. American Research Group had Obama’s lead at 10 which it said was unchanged from its previous poll.

Hillary Clinton is leading Barack Obama 50 percent to 42 percent in Indiana in a survey conducted April 26-27 by Public Policy Polling. The margin of error is 2.5 percent. Clinton leads 54 percent to 38 percent among white voters, 54 percent to 39 percent among women voters and 55 percent to 36 percent among voters over 65. Obama leads among black voters 73 percent to 21 percent and among voters under 29 by 50 percent to 40 percent.

Gallup has trolled through its April data and further confirmed the “education gap” among white voters favoring either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. Voters with less than a college degree go for Clinton by 56 percent to 35 percent while those with a college degree or higher favor Obama 56 percent to 37 percent.

These overall figures break down different ways among different age groups.

• The 18-to-34 group:White voters with less than a college degree favor Obama 54 percent to 40 percent. Those with a college degree or higher favor Obama 63 percent to 32 percent.
• The 35-to-54 group: Overall, Clinton leads 59 percent to 32 percent among those without a college degree while Obama leads 58 percent to 35 percent among more educated voters. Drilling down further, Clinton leads 56 to 34 percent among white voters who have less than a college degree, but are employed, and 68 percent to 28 percent among those who are unemployed. Obama’s margin over Clinton among those with a college degree or higher, plus a job, is 57 percent to 35 percent, and 65 percent to 31 percent for those without a job.
• Voters over 55: Clinton’s margin grows to 60 percent to 29 percent among those with less than a college degree. Obama leads those with a college degree by 50 percent to 43 percent.

A long-term tracking of party identification by age group shows a significant shift away from the GOP among the "late Boomer/Gen-X" age group and a tilt towards the Democratic party by the youngest voters.

According to the Pew Research Center study released today, voters aged 18-29 are considerably more likely (58 percent to 33 percent) to align themselves with the Democratic Party than the Republican Party. Just four years ago, the margin for Democrats among this group was 51 to 40 percent. Among Generation Y voters (born in 1977 or after), the gap also widened: in 2004, they preferred Democrats 52 to 39 percent; in 2008, 57 to 33 percent.

This obvious trend toward the Democratic Party is evident across other age groups, as well, and has been particularly noticeable with the "late Boomer/Gen-X" age group (1956-76). Statistics for voters born in that 20-year period show a 15 percentage point shift since 2004 — four years ago, the Republican Party had a 3 percentage point edge in that age group; today's results show a 12 percentage point gap in favor of the Democratic Party.

The survey responses from 2004 were based on polls conducted October 2003 through November 2004, and responses for 2008 were based on polls conducted October 2007 through March 2008.

According to a Public Policy Polling release today, Hillary Rodham Clinton is gaining ground against Barack Obama's still considerable lead in North Carolina. Obama's 51 percent to 39 percent lead over Clinton is well outside the ±2.9 percentage point margin of error, but it is smaller than in previous polls conducted by PPP in North Carolina about the Democratic primary. The earlier PPP polls showed Obama holding as much as a 25-point lead over Clinton.

Obama leads among both men and women, and has an unsurprisingly strong lead among African-Americans. Although he leads Clinton across all age groups, he has lower support from the over-30 crowd — he's got 57 percent support for 18-29 year olds; 50 percent for 30-45 year olds; and 51 percent for both the 46-65 and over-65 groups. Clinton, on the other hand, snags a consistent 38 to 40 percent from each age group.

The poll was taken from 1,121 likely Democratic voters surveyed on April 26 and 27.

After a tough April for Barack Obama, the number of Republicans who believe he would be a formidable candidate against John McCain has dropped from 54 percent this month to 37 percent in a poll conducted April 25-27 by Rasmussen Reports. That’s just above Hillary Clinton who clocks in at 35 percent, although that number is up from 20 percent. Forty percent of unaffiliated voters say Obama is the most electable Democrat compared to 35 percent for Clinton. The New York Times reported yesterday that Republicans now are seeing Obama as a liability for the Democratic ticket.

Democrats believe Obama is the stronger candidate by 51 percent to 37 percent. Adding up all voters – Democratic, Republican and unaffiliated – 44 percent say Obama is the stronger candidate compared to 36 percent for Clinton.

Rasmussen also says that 34 percent of Democrats believe she should drop out ofthe race, compared to 32 percent earlier this month and 22 percent in late March. Twenty-two percent of Democrats say the same of Obama.

Meanwhile, an AP-Ipsos poll today says that in a general election match-up Clinton leads John McCain 50 percent to 41 percent, while Obama is in a virtual tie with him at 46 percent to 44 percent.

Barack Obama has a 52 percent to 42 percent lead over Hillary Clinton in North Carolina where Democrats go to the polls next week, according to an American Research Group poll conducted April 26-27. The margin of error is 4 points. These results are unchanged from what ARG reported a month ago. Clinton leads among white voters (62 percent of the sample) by 57 percent to 36 percent while Obama has an 83 percent to 13 percent among black voters (33 percent of the sample).

Gallup released an 8-dimension "character comparison" of the three presidential candidates today, showing John McCain lagging among voters when asked about his "clear plan for solving the country's problems." Only 33 percent of adults polled responded positively when asked if McCain had a clear plan, down from 42 percent in March and compared unfavorably with 40 percent for Barack Obama and 47 percent for Hillary Rodham Clinton.

But the rest of the poll was more upbeat for the presumed Republican nominee. It also concludes that McCain's perceived character strengths lie in his persona of a "strong and decisive leader" and being "honest and trustworthy." In fact, he only falls below 50 percent of positive repsonses for "shares your values" and "has a clear plan." Clinton, on the other hand, falls below 50 percent for four different characteristics, including her lowest — "is honest and trustworthy" at 37 percent — but is close behind McCain when viewed as a "strong and decisive leader." Barack Obama rates highly for "understanding the problems Americans face in their daily lives" and "caring about the needs of people like you," but, like McCain, sees his lowest positive score come in for "has a clear plan for solving the country's problems."

The margin of error for the 1,016 interviews, conducted April 18-20, is ±3 percentage points.

Slow day, here at Poll Tracker, so we'll report that the Gallup daily tracking poll, as it did yesterday, at 47 percent each in its survey conducted April 24-26. The margin of error didn't change either - 3 percent.

Barack Obama has slid in the latest Newsweek poll, after absorbing the hard hits of his Pennsylvania loss and the controversies over his “bitter” remark and efforts by his opponents to keep alive the issue of his association with Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

Obama still leads Hillary Clinton 46 percent to 38 percent in the survey conducted April 24-25. The margin of error is 5 percent for Democrats who were polled. A week ago, in a report headlined “Hillary Drops Back,” the Newsweek poll had Obama ahead 54 percent to 35 percent. On the question of who was more electable, Obama had a 55 percent to 33 percent lead a week ago, but now his edge over Clinton is 46 percent to 38 percent.

Newsweek says that now 4 in 10 of registered voters, including Republicans and independents, now have an unfavorable opinion of him and the same number say they would not vote for him in the general election. About the same number of voters say their opinion is less favorable because of the Wright controversy and the “bitter” remark. That being said, both Obama and Clinton hold narrow leads over John McCain, although both are within the poll’s margin of error. Fifty-three percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Obama, compared to 51 percent for McCain and 47 percent for Clinton. The margin of error for all voters is 3 percent.

Hillary Clinton and Brack Obama are tied at 47 percent each in the Gallup daily tracking poll's April 23-25 survey. The margin of error is 3 percent. This is the first of Gallup's dailies in which all of the interviews were conducted after Clinton's Pennsylvania victory.

Voters generally trust Democrats more than Republicans on key issues but when it comes down to the specific of actual candidates, they trust John McCain more than Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted April 21-24. The margin of error for these results is 3.5 percent.

Here is Rasmussen’s issue-by-issue rundown:

• Economy: Voters trust the Democrats to better handle this issue by a 48 percent to 40 percent margin. But they trust McCain over Clinton by 47 percent to 42 percent and over Obama by 46 percent to 39 percent.

• Iraq: Voters are closely divided – 45 percent say the trust the Democrats against 43 percent who favor the Republicans. McCain is trusted over Clinton by 50 percent to 40 percent and over Obama by 48 percent to 39 percent.

Here are the latest additions to our round-up of state by state general-election match-ups.

And by the way, if you aren't familiar with it already, there's a great site, electoral-vote.com, that has a map that gives an excellent graphical view of how the states are sorting out.

• Massachusetts: No surprise here. Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are way ahead of John McCain, with Clinton leading 55 percent to 36 percent and Obama by 51 percent to 39 percent, in a Rasmussen Reports poll released April 25. Among men voters, the match-ups are close, but among women the Democrats have wide leads. Obama’s favorability rating is 59 percent, Clinton’s is 58 percent, and McCain’s is 57 percent. Forty-nine percent say the economy is the top issue compared to 24 percent who cite Iraq. Massachusetts voters do not give much of a boost to their onetime favorite son Mitt Romney as a potential McCain running mate. Forty three percent don’t think McCain should choose Romney while 34 percent say they do. In a SurveyUSA poll conducted April 11-13 linton runs ahead of McCain 56 percent to 41 percent, while Obama is in a statistical dead heat with McCain, leading him 48 percent to 46 percent. The margin of error is 4.2 percent. On Iraq, named as the top issue by 18 percent, both Democrats lead McCain by more than 40 points.

• Indiana: McCain leads Obama 51 percent to 43 percent and Clinton by 52 percent to 41 percent, according to a Research 2000 poll conducted. April 21-24. An Indianapolis Star-WTHR poll conducted April 20-23 had Obama ahead of McCain 49 percent to 41 percent and Clinton even with him at 46 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. The Boston Globe notes today that Indiana Democrats have not delivered their state in a general election since 1964.

The Gallup daily tracking poll now has Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in a statistical tie, with Obama at 48 percent and Clinton at 47 percent. The survey was conducted April 22-24 and has a margin of error of 3 percent. Obama had recently been ahead by as much as 10 points and Gallup suggests that Clinton’s uptick is due to the impact of her Pennsylvania primary victory. Just to note: a number of pre-Pennsylvania polls by major organizations had Obama with significant leads, and at times, the Gallup daily tracking poll has been at variance with them and even with the poll Gallup conducts for USA Today.

Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are in a statistical dead heat in Indiana, one of two states that hold the next primaries on May 6, according to a Research 2000 poll conducted April 21-24. In North Carolina, the other May 6 state, polls have consistently shown Obama with a lead. The Indiana poll has Obama at 48 percent and Clinton at 47 percent with 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points.

A second poll, this one for the Indianapolis Star-WTHR-TV, also showed the race to be a toss-up with Obama leading 41 percent to 38 percent, within the survey’s 4.2 percent margin of error. The poll was conducted April 20-23. But this poll showed a much higher number of undecided voters – 21 percent.

And a third - American Research Group - has Clinton ahead of Obama 50 percent to 45 percent with 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent and the poll was conducted April 23-24.

It doesn’t come as much of a surprise for those who have followed the campaign results and polls, but a survey conducted between March 11 and April 1 for the Harvard University Institute of Politics found that 18-to-24 year-olds who plan to vote in November favor Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton by 70 percent to 30 percent. Last October, Obama’s margin over Clinton was only 38 percent to 33 percent with the rest divided among other Democrats who were then still in the field. Matched against John McCain, Obama leads 53 percent to 32 percent, but Clinton leads McCain by 44 percent to 39 percent.

While 80 percent said they definitely or probably would vote in November, 60 percent of young voters said they did not consider themselves to be politically active against 40 percent who were. Fifty-eight percent said the country was on the wrong track, 32 percent were unsure and 10 percent said the nation was generally headed in the right direction.

While the days leading up to the Pennsylvania primary may have been high drama for the candidates, their supporters and the press, Pew Research says that the interest of Americans in what they see as “an excessively negative presidential campaign” declined during that period. Pew’s survey showed that only 29 percent of Americans said they paid very close attention to campaign news last week, the lowest figure since last December. That compares to 43 percent who followed the news closely during the weekend before the Texas and Ohio primaries. The number of Democrats following the campaign news closely last week was 38 percent compared to more than half of them in February.

For the April 18-21 period, Americans saw the campaign as too negative by a 50 percent to 44 percent margin. That number was pretty consistent across Democrats, Republicans and independents. In February, only 28 percent of Americans and 19 percent of Democrats called the race too negative.

Fifty-nine percent of voters described the campaign as interesting compared to 35 percent who called it dull, the latter number being up from 25 percent in February.

So, at the moment the official Pennsylvania count stands at 54.6 percent for Hillary Clinton and 45.4 percent for Barack Obama, a 9.2 point victory for Clinton. Here's what the pollsters predicted in the final round of their surveys:

• American Research Group: Clinton 56, Obama 40
• Zogby: Clinton 51, Obama 41
• Suffolk University: Clinton 52, Obama 42
• InsiderAdvantage: Clinton 49, Obama 42
• Strategic Vision: Clinton 48, Obama 41
• Quinnipiac University: Clinton 51, Obama 44
• SurveyUSA: Clinton 50, Obama 44
• Rasmussen Reports: Clinton 49, Obama 44
• McClatchy/MSNBC: Clinton 48, Obama 43
• Public Policy Polling: Clinton 49, Obama 46

Rasmussen Reports say both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have gained on John McCain in Minnesota, a state the Democrats have won in every presidential election since 1976. Obama leads McCain by 52 percent to 38 percent while Clinton is ahead 47 percent to 42 percent. Last month, Obama had only a 4 point lead and Clinton and McCain were running even. Obama has a favorability rating of 60 percent, McCain is at 56 percent and Clinton at 51 percent.

The number of Americans saying the U.S. made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq reached a new high in a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted April 18-20, with 63 percent taking that view. That surpassed the 61 percent who said in May, 1971 that the Vietnam War was a mistake.

John McCain leads both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in a general election match-up in Nevada, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted April 21. McCain is ahead of Obama 48 percent to 43 percent and Clinton by 49 percent to 38 percent. The margin of error is 4 percent. Last month, Obama led McCain by four and the race with Clinton was a dead heat.

Barack Obama maintained a statistically significant lead in the Gallup daily tracking poll for the third straight day, running ahead of her by 50 percent to 42 percent based on a survey conducted April 18-22. the margin of error is 3 points. Obama's margin yesterday was 10 points. However, this poll did not capture the effect, if any, of Clinton's Tuesday night victory in Pennsylvania.

Barack Obama is leading Hillary Clinton by 50 percent to 41 percent in the next big primary state of North Carolina, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted April 19-21. The margin of error is 3.7 percent and the number of undecided is 5 percent. This is a smaller lead than some other North Carolina polls have shown for Obama, but SurveyUSA says that margin has been “steady-steady.” Clinton’s only significant edge over Obama in any gender or age group is among voters over 65. Clinton leads 56 percent to 33 percent among white voters (64 percent of the sample) while Obama leads among black voters (30 percent of the sample) by 83 percent to 10 percent.

Here are some of the findings of the exit polls in Pennsylvania.

From CNN:

• One out of 7 primary voters were not registered as a Democrat at the beginning of the year and 60 percent of them went for Obama.
• Fifty-eight percent of voters who made up their minds in the last week voted for Clinton.
• Ninety-two percent of black voters chose Obama. Several pollsters put the black vote in Pennsylvania at about 15 percent of the total.
• Seniors backed Clinton 60 percent to 39 percent, while Obama led in the 18-to-29 age group 62 percent to 38 percent.
• Eleven percent of Pennsylvania Democrats said they would vote for John McCain over Clinton if she became the nominee and another 6 percent said they'd stay home. Fifteen percent would vote for McCain over Obama and 10 percent said they woduldn't vote at all if Obama was the standardbearer.

From CBS News:

• Sixty-four percent of Hillary Clinton supporters said they would not be satisfied with Obama as the nominee, and 54 percent of Barack Obama supporters. But overall, 70 percent of Pennsylvania Democrats would be satisfied with Clinton as nominee and 64 percent with Obama.
• Fifty-four percent said the economy is the top issue of the campaign.
• Clinton won 55 percent of men voters, and in specific, 64 percent of blue collar white men.

From the New York Times:

• Ninety percent of voters said the U.S. was in a recession.
• Nearly half of voters said they were looking for a candidate who would bring change.
• About a quarter of voters said experience was the most important quality for a candidate.
• A majority of voters said campaign ads were very or somewhat important in making their choice. About 40 percent said that both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama had engaged in unfair attacks.
• Three-quarters said they made their decision a week ago.

From ABC News:

• Eight out of 10 voters made up their minds at least a week ago, and 6 in 10 did so a month ago, which would be a wake-up call to pollsters and pundits who said the negative tone of the race was resulting in a significant undecided pool.
• Two thirds of voters say Clinton attacked Obama unfairly during the campaign, while about half said the same of Obama’s treatment of Clinton.
• More than half of voters in the early exit polls expect Obama to be the nominee

From Fox News:

• Fifty-eight percent of those who live in union households voted for Clinton versus 42 percent for Obama.
• Voters making less than $50,000 a year voted 55 percent to 45 percent for Clinton.
• Fifty-four percent of college grads backed Obama compared to 46 percent for Clinton.
• Obama is out-polling Clinton among urban voters 69 percent to 31 percent.
• Gun owners favored Clinton by 58 percent to 42 percent.
• Voters who attend religious services every week backed Clinton 59 percent to 41 percent.

Despite efforts by his foes to depict him as an elitist because of his remarks about "bitter" small town, blue collar voters, Barack Obama does not fare much differently than Hillary Clinton or John McCain when voters are asked if any of the candidates look down on the average American, according to a Gallup survey conducted April 18-20. Voters say McCain respects and doesn't look down on people by a 71 percent to 22 percent margin, Obama by a 69 percent to 26 percent margin, and Clinton by a 63 percent to 32 percent margin. The results are about the same when "working class American" is substituted for "average" American.

A new USA Today/Gallup poll conducted April 18-20 looks like a mirror image of recent polls by the Washington Post/ABC News and Newsweek: a widening lead for Barack Obama and rising negatives for Hillary Clinton. It also matches the results of today's Gallup daily tracking poll. Obama leads Clinton by 50 percent to 40 percent, with a 3 point margin of error. About half of Democrats say the race has become too negative, and 43 percent blame Clinton, 3 percent blame Obama and 53 percent blame both equally. Democrats are divided on whether the long sometimes bitter campaign is hurting the party. Gallup says on its website that the split is 48 percent to 48 percent. Obama supporters believe by a 58 percent to 40 percent margin that the campaign is hurting the party now, while Clinton supporters reject that view 59 percent to 36 percent. Fifty-nine percent of Obama supporters say the campaign has become too negative, while 59 percent of Clinton backers disagree.

In general election-matchups, USA Today/Gallup has Obama ahead of McCain 47 percent to 44 percent and Clinton in the lead 50 percent to 44 percent.

Here's our latest round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups, with a new survey in New York providing more evidence of the negative sentiment building up against Hillary Clinton in her increasingly contentious contest with Barack Obama.

New York: Hillary Clinton leads John McCain in her homestate by a modest 46 to 42 percent while Barack Obama has a 45 percent to 40 percent lead, according to a Siena College poll conducted April 13-16. the margin of error is 3.9 percent. When Siena conducted its last poll in February, each Democrat led McCain by 7 points. But perhaps the big headline is that Clinton now has the highest unfavorable rating that she ever recorded in this poll. Forty eight percent of New Yorkers see her positively against 46 percent who do not. Obama’s favorability rating is 54 percent to 35 percent and McCain;s is 54 percent to 35 percent. Siena’s Stephen Greenberg says, “With a little more than six months until Election Day, New York is looking more ‘purple’ than ‘blue’ these days, since neither Clinton or Obama gets 50 percent of the vote against McCain, and both Democrats have small and shrinking leads.”

SurveyUSA said in an April 11-13 New York poll that Clinton leads McCain 59 percent to 35 percent in her home state, while Obama leads 52 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. A Marist Poll conducted April 3-4 said if the election were held today McCain would run “surprisingly close” in New York to either Democrat. Clinton polls 48 percent to 46 percent against McCain, while McCain leads Obama 48 percent to 46 percent.

InsiderAdvantage's final Pennsylvania poll released this morning falls within the range of the seven polls that came out yesterday, putting Hillary Clinton ahead of Barack Obama by 49 percent to 42 percent, with 9 percent undecided. The poll was conducted last night and has a 3.6 percent margin of error. Monday's polls had two putting Clinton ahead by 10, two by 7, one by 6, one by 5 and one by a statistically insignificant 3. The biggest outlier so far of all the polls since the weekend is American Research Group whose April 17-19 survey had Clinton ahead by 13.

Also today:

• A final Zogby poll conducted April 20-21 has Clinton up by 51 percent to 41 percent with 6 percent "not sure." The margin of error is 3.8 percent.

• American Research Group now posts an even bigger lead for Clinton than it did in its previous poll. Its April 20-21 survey has her ahead 56 percent to 40 percent, with a 4 point margin of error. It had given her a 13 point lead on Monday.

The question is whether a Clinton victory will be by enough of a margin to revive her campaign, especially after a CQ Politics district-by-district analysis last week showed she is not likely to walk away from Pennsylvania with many more delegates than Obama.

Check out these previews of tonight's vote:

• What to Look for in Pennsylvania Primary Los Angeles Times
• Eight Questions About the Pennsylvania Primary Washington Post

Seven Pennsylvania polls (are there enough voters to go around?) since the ones we reported yesterday:

• Suffolk University: Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 52 percent to 42 percent, with 4 percent undecided, in a poll conducted April 19-20. The margin of error is 4 percent. A fifth of Democrats said they'd vote for John McCain if their choice for Democratic nominee does not win and 4 percent said they'd vote for Ralph Nader.
• InsiderAdvantage: Clinton leads 49 percent to 39 percent with 12 percent undecided in this poll conducted April 20. The margin of error is 3.4 percent. InsiderAdvantage's Matt Towery attributes the large undecided number to "the barrage of negative TV commercials and attack statements...When a campaign becomes a blow-for-blow blood-fest played out in news media, that usually drives up the number of undecided voters."
• Strategic Vision: A survey conducted April 18-20 showed Clinton leading Obama 48 percent to 41 percent with 11 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points. As noted yesterday, the undecideds in most of the past primaries have broken for Clinton. In a look-ahead to the general election, Strategic Vision said John McCain was ahead of Clinton 46 percent to 42 percent and Obama by 48 percent to 40 percent.
• Quinnipiac University: This poll also has Clinton ahead by 7 points, 51 percent to 44 percent in a survey conducted April 18-20. The margin of error is 3.1 points. Quinnipiac's Clay Richards said, "Pennsylvania voters apparently made up their minds a couple of weeks ago and nothing has happened since to change them."
• SurveyUSA: A poll conducted April 18-20 has Clinton at 50 percent to 44 percent over Obama with a 3.8 percent margin of error.
• Rasmussen Reports: Clinton leads Obama 49 percent to 44 percent in a survey conducted April 20. Margin of error is 4 points. Seven percent are undecided.This is a state where Clinton's favorability is positive, at 71 percent of likely primary voters compared to 69 percent for Obama. But less than half of each candidates' supporters have a favorable view of their rival.
• Public Policy Polling: Clinton is in a tight race with Obama at 49 percent to 46 percent with a 2 percent margin of error in a survey conducted April 19-20.

The weekend polls broke down this way:

• McClatchy/MSNBC Pittsburgh Post Gazette: Clinton 48 percent, Obama 43 perced, 8 percent undecided and a 4 point margin of error. Conducted April 17-18.
• American Research Group: Clinton 54 percent, Obama 41 percent and a 4 point margin of error. Conducted April 17-19.
• Zogby: Clinton 46 percent. Obama 43 percent, and a 4.1 percent margin of error. Conducted April 18-19.

In the SurveyUSA poll conducted for Philadelphia's NBC 10, Clinton's 6 point lead compared to 14 points last week. The station concluded: "Clinton will carry the symbolically important popular vote, but not by enough to gain material advantage in pledged delegates." That squares with a CQ Politics analysis of last week that whatever way the popular vote goes, the delegate split between Clinton and Obama is likely to be close.

Barack Obama continues to hold a big lead in North Carolina where primary voters go to the polls on May 6, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted April 19-20. Obama is running ahead of Clinton 57 percent to 32 percent in the battle for the state’s 134 delegates, the second biggest remaining haul after Pennsylvania.

The number of Americans pointed to the economy as the important issue of the campaign year has soared from 46 percent last November to 67 percent, according to an AP-Yahoo poll conducted April 2-14.

The poll says about two-thirds of those making under $100,000 attach “extreme importance” to the economy as do nearly 6 in 10 earning more. However, none of the remaining presidential contenders can claim a lion’s share of those voters, although those who say they are extremely concerned about the economy lean towards the two Democrats. Both groups divide evenly between McCain and each Democrat in head-to-head match-ups. Democrats divide between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama about the same whether or not they name the economic situation as extremely important to them.

AP Yahoo concludes: “The economy is the top problem, but so far it's not driving votes.”

Three polls are out today on the Pennsylvania race: one giving Hillary Clinton a 13 point lead, one a 5 point lead and the third a statistically insignificant 3 point edge.

Clinton has a 48 percent to 43 percent lead over Barack Obama with 8 percent undecided, in a McClatchy/MSNBC/Pittsburgh Post Gazette poll conducted April 17-18. The margin of error is 4 percent. The Gazette said, “The findings suggested that after six weeks of campaigning against a significantly better funded candidate, Mrs. Clinton retains the opportunity for a tactical victory.” A piece in the Boston Globe also underlined the importance of undecided voters, noting that in three Pennsylvania polls conducted last week, this group made up 9 percent to 13 percent, and the Globe observed: “Through 27 contests where exit polling on late deciders is available, Clinton has won those voters in 20.” However, among those voters who have made a choice, 92 percent of both Obama and Clinton supporters said they would stick to it.

NBC Political Director Check Todd also saw signs in the poll that undecideds could break for Clinton and said, "While the poll shows Clinton with a narrow lead (and arguably a narrowing lead), the clues inside the numbers indicate this is her race to lose and that her lead could expand."

In the other two polls:

• American Research Group says its April 17-19 survey shows Clinton ahead 54 percent to 41 percent with a 4 point margin of error.
• Zogby reports its April 18-19 survey has Clinton ahead 46 percent to 43 percent, which is within its 4.1 percent margin of error.

In the McClatchy poll, Clinton’s beer-and-a-shot moment did not seem to do her much good. This was the first time we saw a poll that broke out beer drinkers as a demographic, but the survey says that Clinton and Obama were in a 44 percent each tie among the 28 percent of voters who identified themselves as beer drinkers. Her story about her gun-toting Pennsylvania childhood may have done her more good: among the 38 percent in the poll who said they were gun owners, Clinton led 53 percent to 28 percent. Clinton also led 56 percent to 31 percent among the 16 percent of voters who said they were hunters and 54 percent to 33 percent among the 24 percent of respondents who said they were bowlers. Is this the class divide that a Boston Globe article discusses today?

A Newsweek poll shows Barack Obama running away with the Democratic contest, building a 54 percent to 35 percent lead over Hillary Clinton, compared to its last poll in early March that had the two in a dead heat. The poll was conducted April 16-17, which means it probably did not reflect any great impact due to the last debate, and had a 3 point margin of error. It reflect the same trend as a Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted April 10-13 which had Obama moving ahead by 10 points, but stands in contrast to the sometimes mysterious Gallup daily tracking poll which today has Clinton in a statistical tie with Obama, with her ahead 46 percent to 45 percent. That poll, conducted April 16-18, has a margin of error of 3 percent.

Like the Post/ABC News poll and a slew of state polls, Clinton is suffering more and more from a perception among voters that see her as dishonest and untrustworthy. Voters hold that view by 51 percent to 41 percent, while 61 percent say both Obama and McCain are honest and trustworthy. Newsweek says, “The results suggest that Clinton was damaged more by being caught in a tall tale about landing in Bosnia under sniper fire than Obama has been by his recent controversies, including the firestorm of criticism provoked by the Illinois senator's remarks that blue-collar voters "cling" to religion, guns and other issues because of their bitterness.” But at the same time, as the contentious Democratic campaign goes on, Obama;s favorability rating has dropped 4 points to 57 percent and his unfavorable rating has climbed 8 points to 36 percent, while Clinton’s favorability rating has dropped 7 points to 49 percent and her unfavorable rating rose 7 poinrts to 47 percent since the last poll.

The poll showed one potential Achilles Heel for John McCain. Thirty-six percent of voters believe that his age – 71 – will hurt his chances of winning the presidency.

Our latest additions to our round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups confirm some trends we've noted before that our reflected not only in these polls but national ones: Hillary Clinton is on a downhill slide in her favorability ratings, and Iraq appears to be a vulnerability for John McCain in a race against either Clinton or Barack Obama, as voters who rate that as the top issue favor eith Democrat by signficant margins. (There are a couple of good pieces today about McCain on al-Qaeda and Iraq in the New York Times and Salon).

• Colorado: McCain and Obama are in a statistical dead heat with Obama leading 46 percent to 43 percent while McCain leads Clinton 50 percent to 36 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted April 16. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. For those of you who follow the Poll Tracker links to go to the source, Rasmussen has decided to present these results via video, and there's something squirrely about the address, so we didn't include it). Rasmussen says one reason for the difference is that Obama leads McCain by 44 percent to 34 percent among unaffiliated voters while McCain beats Clinton 49 percent to 28 percent, an outcome similar to many other state polls. McCain bests Clinton among both men and women voters while holding a slimmer lead among men over Obama and trailing him among women. Obama’s favorability rating has slipped from 60 percent in February and 55 percent a month ago to 53 percent, a trend reflected also in Newsweek’s new national poll. McCain’s favorability rating is 57 percent and Clinton is way behind at 40 percent.

• Washington state: Obama leads McCain 53 percent to 40 percent while Clinton is ahead of McCain by 48 percent to 45 percent, in a Survey USA poll conducted April 14-16. The margin of error is 4 percent. Both Obama and Clinton have big leads over McCain among women voters, but it’s a split decision among men: Obama leads McCain by 7 points while Clinton trails him by the same amount. The biggest age gap is among voters under 34, who favor Obama by 42 points and Clinton by 14. Obama has an 11 point lead here over McCain among white voters. He runs ahead of McCain 55 percent to 34 percent among independents while McCain runs about even in this group with Clinton. Thirty-six percent of voters name the economy as the top issue and while Obama has a 16 point lead over McCain among them, McCain runs even with Clinton. Of the 19 percent of voters who name Iraq, both Democrats have about a 2-to-1 lead over McCain. An April 7 poll by SurveyUSA had Obama ahead of McCain by 51 percent to 44 percent while McCain was in a virtual 46 percent to 45 percent tie with Clinton

Monday's 11 percent lead was the largest it has been in the campaign to date.

Gallup suggests that Obama's drop to a 47 to 44 percent lead over Clinton may be attributed to the Wednesday night debate in Philadelphia: "The initial indications are that Obama may have been hurt by the debate, which was noted for its negative tone and focus on the candidates' recent 'gaffes...'"

That is at odds with other polls released today, that showed Clinton slipping after the debate. And, Gallup's findings on a potential matchups with John McCain are at odds with today's AP/Yahoo poll. That one showed McCain with a non-statistically-significant edge over Obama and Clinton. The Gallup poll had Clinton leading McCain, 46 to 44 percent, while Obama had a smaller lead, 45 to 44 percent, also within the margin of error.

The margin of error was plus or minus 2 percent.

Obama's support may be a little softer than Clinton's, according to Rasmussen, with 6 percent of his supporters saying there was "a good chance" they would change their mind before Tuesday, in contrast to Clinton's 2 percent. Both candidates are viewed favorably by more than 2/3 of likely Democratic voters, which is slightly down from prevous surveys.

Rasmussen adds: "Perhaps the worst news in the survey for Clinton has nothing to do with the race getting closer. Fifty-seven percent (57%) say that the Superdelegates should honor the results of the primaries even if 'something happens to convince Superdelegates that Hillary Clinton would have a better chance of beating John McCain.' If Clinton is deemed more electable, just 33% believe that the Superdelegates should select her over Obama."

This telephone survey of 730 voters had a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.

An AP/Yahoo poll released today says, for example, that the proportion of people who view Obama as "not at all honest" jumped over the past five months from 18 percent to 27 percent. But Clinton fared far worse: she went from 36 percent to 40 percent. And there was a similar trend with "not at all ethical."

And while significantly more respondents felt Clinton was much more experienced than Obama, when asked who had a better chance of beating John McCain, Obama jumped ahead of Clinton 56 percent to 43 percent, a sharp change from the last time the poll was taken.

But when the pollsters did one-on-one matchups against McCain, Clinton fared slightly better, though the difference was not statistically significant. McCain edges Clinton 37 to 36 percent and trumps Obama 36 to 34 percent.

Two other interesting notes: 15 percent of respondents believed - wrongly - that Obama is Muslim and Ralph Nader garnered 3 percent in a theoretical matchup of either McCain/Clinton or McCain/Obama.

The survey of 1,844 adults was conducted April 2-14 and had an overall margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.3 percent. For the Democratic respondents, the margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3.3 points, and plus or minus 3.8 points for the Republicans.

The folks at SurveyUSA were busy during the April 11-13 period, and now have disgorged 14 state general election match-ups for their media customers around the country. One common theme through most of the polls that stood out sharply were the large margins by which voters favored both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama over John McCain on Iraq, even in states where McCain's other numbers were good. It also stood out that Clinton fared the worst among independents in most of the states.

So, here's our summary of SurveyUSA's findings:

• California: In this “must” state for Democrats, Clinton leads McCain 53 percent to 40 percent and Obama is ahead of him 50 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. The biggest gender difference is Clinton’s 18 point lead among women voters. The biggest age gap is under-34 voters, where Clinton leads 65 percent to 26 percent and Obama has a 64 percent to 31 percent edge. Both Obama and Clinton have leads in the 2-to-1 range among the 28 percent of the voter sample that is Hispanic. Among independents, it’s Clinton who does best against McCain, leading him 51 percent to 36 percent while the difference with Obama is statistically insignificant. Thirty-six percent of voters say the economy is the top issue and Obama and Clinton both lead McCain by about 10 points. Iraq is second at 16 percent and Clinton leads McCain among these voters by 41 points and Obama leads him by 48 points. Immigration was cited by 11 percent and McCain has 2-to-1 leads over both Democrats.

• New York: Clinton beats McCain 59 percent to 35 percent in her home state, while Obama leads 52 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. Clinton and Obama have big leads over McCain among women voters, as well as among voters under 34. Clinton also has a big lead in the 35-to-49 group, besting McCain 61 percent to 35 percent. Thirty-seven percent cite the economy as the top issue and, among them, both Democrats have significant leads over McCain and the same is true for the 16 percent of voters who named Iraq as the top issue. Health care was a close third at 14 percent and Clinton had a 4-to-1 lead over McCain here, and Obama more than a 3-to-1 lead.

While most Americans say the positive-negative ratio when it comes to news coverage of the presidential candidates is a mixed bag, John McCain has the highest number of news consumers who believe he is getting positive treatment, according to Pew Research. In an April 11-14 survey, 36 percent said the coverage of McCain was mostly positive, compared to 11 percent who described it as negative, with 44 percent saying it was a mix of both. Twenty-three percent said coverage of Obama was negative against 21 percent who found it positive, and 53 percent who called it a mix. Thirty-six percent found coverage of Clinton to be negative, 13 percent said it was positive and 47 percent called it a mix.

John McCain has pulled even with either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama in an AP-Yahoo poll, a far cry from five months ago when this survey said that voters preferred sending an unnamed Democrat to the White House over a Republican by 13 points. The survey, conducted April 2-14, says McCain has accomplished this by bringing disgruntled GOP voters back to the fold, plus attracting independents and some moderate Democrats.

AP says another factor in McGain's gains is the souring of public opinion on Clinton, a point underlined in this wek's Washington Post-ABC News poll as well as in many of the state-by-state general election match-up polls where Clinton's favorability ratings are mostly below 50 percent and where she invariably ranks below McCain and Obama. The poll says views of Obama have improved but not as much as for McCain.

"The survey suggests that those switching to McCain are largely attuned to his personal qualities and McCain may be benefiting as the two Democrats snipe at each other during their prolonged nomination fight," AP said. "What's clear is that some Republican-leaning voters who backed Bush in 2004 but lost enthusiasm for him are returning to the GOP fold - along with a smaller but significant number of Democrats who have come to dislike their party's two contenders."

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are running even in Pennsylvania in a Zogby poll conducted April 15-16. Clinton leads Obama 45 percent to 44 percent with a 4.1 percent margin of error. Zogby reports a “huge” gender gap with Obama leading Clinton among men voters by 15 points and Clinton having the same margin over Obama among women voters. The poll also says that “Pennsylvanians by a two to one margin are more likely to agree with supporters of Obama that voters in Pennsylvania are bitter about their economic situation than with Clinton and critics of Obama that he is an elitist who does not understand working people.”

The hard-fought battle for the Democratic nomination has had its effect on North Carolina voters, according to a Charlotte Observer/WCNC-TV poll. Four in 10 supporters of Hillary Clinton say they would vote for John McCain if Barack Obama became the nominee, or sit out the election. Three in 10 Obama supporters said the same. While many primary voters get over their disappointment and back the party’s choice by the time the general election rolls around, the Observer said, "the N.C. numbers illustrate a rift that party leaders feared in recent weeks." The poll was conducted March 29- - April 1.

Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton each are running 4 points ahead of John McCain when it comes to the sum total of so-called “purple” states – states that were competitive in the 2004 presidential election, according to a Gallup analysis of data collected April 1-15. Gallup is defining a purple state as one in which the difference between George Bush and John Kerry had been less than 6 points. Gallup listed those states as New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Oregon. Taken together, Obama and Clinton each have an ov erall 47 percent to 43 percent margin over McCain with a 1 point margin of error. You can look up recent polls on a lot of these states by looking at our last round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups.

Where Obama has the advantage over Clinton is that he does better than her against McCain in “blue,” or Democratic, states, and in “red,” or Republican states. In those he leads McCain 52 percent to 39 percent while Clinton’s lead is 50 percent to 41 percent. McCain leads Obama 49 percent to 41 percent in red states, and does a little better against Clinton, 51 percent to 41 percent.

Gallup says: “McCain and his supporters can take solace in that there are more red states, more voters, and thus, more electoral votes in those states. So even though he trails by four points in the most competitive states, he is down by only two points to Obama (46 percent to 44 percent), and is down by just one point to Clinton (46 percent to 45 percent), among registered voters when all states are combined.”

New polls for Pennsylvania and North Carolina seem to back up what the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg people concluded from the survey they released yesterday – that Hillary Clinton faces an uphill battle in the most important of the remaining primary states.

Clinton and Barack Obama are in a statistical dead-heat in Pennsylvania in a April 14-15 survey conducted by Public Policy Polling. Obama leads Clinton 45 percent to 42 percent, with the margin of error at 3 percent. Last week, Clinton led by 3 points in this survey, and a week earlier, Obama led by 2 points. PPP’s Dean Debnam says with candidate has a “decent chance” of winning next Tuesday’s primary, and also concluded that Obama’s “bitter” remark had not hurt him in the state, or in North Carolina where PPP also polls. Nationally, Gallup has come to the same conclusion based on data it gathered April 8-10 and April 12-14, saying that that “Obama's support has yet to suffer following his widely reported remarks about small-town voters being ‘bitter.’ ‘

Barack Obama has a 51 percent to 41 percent lead over Hillary Clinton when it comes to who Democrats would like to see win the nomination, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted April 10-13. But perhaps the most damaging news for Clinton is how negatively she is now seen.(Here's the Post story, and for you data hounds, here's the raw poll.) The poll, which has a 3 point margin of error,represents a 3 point gain for Obama since the beginning of March. A Gallup daily tracking poll yesterday also had Obama up by 10.

Clinton is seen unfavorably by 54 percent of voters compared to 40 percent who have a positive view, compared to the 58 percent who regarded her favorably in January. Obama is looked on favorably by a 56 percent to 39 percent margin, while John McCain has a 53 percent to 40 percent rating. The favorability numbers for Obama and McCain have also slipped, but not as precipitously as for Clinton. When Democrats were asked which of their candidates was more honest and trustworthy, they chose Obama by 53 percent to 30 percent. Obama's lead over Clinton on this measure in January was 38 percent to 30 percent with John Edwards, then still in the race, getting 16 percent.

Forty-one percent of Democrats said the tone of the campaign has been negative and, when asked who was more to blame, they answered Clinton by a 52 percent to 14 percent margin.

In general election match-ups, the poll shows a close contest with McCain facing either candidate. Obama leads him 49 percent to 44 percent while McCain leads Clinton 48 percent to 45 percent.

A series of Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg polls in three upcoming primary states – Pennsylvania, Indiana and North Carolina - do not hold good news for Hillary Clinton. In surveys conducted April 10-14, Clinton led Obama 46 percent to 41 percent in Pennsylvania and now trails him 40 percent to 35 percent in Indiana. In North Carolina, Obama maintains the kind of lead he has had all along, 47 percent to 34 percent over Clinton. The margins of error were 4 percent. The Indiana result is at odds with an April 13 SurveyUSA poll that had Clinton ahead by 16 points.

And a Franklin & Marshall poll conducted April 8-13 similarly had Clinton and Obama in a tight race in Pennsylvania, with Clinton holding a 46 percent to 40 percent lead among likely primary voters with 14 percent undecided. Clinton led in this poll 51 percent to 35 percent in March. The margin of error among likely voters is 5.1 percent.

Pennsylvania votes next Tuesday, and Indiana and North Carolina on May 6.

But if the LA Times/Bloomberg and Franklin & Marshall numbers hold true as far as the popular vote, this is pretty bad news for Clinton who needs not just a win in Pennsylvania, but a big win especially since a CQ Politics district-by-district analysis of Pennsylvania predicts that her delegate margin over Obama, at best would be very slim. However, the poll indicates that these races are still very volatile with 12 percent undecided in Pennsylvania, 19 percent in Indiana and 17 percent in North Carolina. And the Pennsylvania polls have been all over the lot with some having her regain her double-digit leads and others showing her halting her slide, but with more modest leads over Obama than she enjoyed last month.

On the question of who had more honesty and integrity, voters favored Obama over Clinton by 47 percent to 26 percent.

The survey straddled the period in which the story of Obama's "bitter" remark broke, so it did not completely reflect whether or not that controversy had an impact.

Barack Obama has notched his largest lead of the year over Hillary Clinton in the Gallup daily tracking poll, opening up a 51 percent to 40 percent lead in its April 12-14 survey. The margin of error is 3 percent.

Three Pennsylvania polls this week suggest that Hillary Clinton is rebuilding her edge in Pennsylvania or at least starting to hold off Barack Obama, while Obama struggles to put the “bitter” remark controversy behind him. But whatever the popular vote outcome, CQ Politics is projecting today that Clinton's margin of victory when it comes to delegates will be slim.

In a survey conducted April 14 by Rasmussen Reports, Clinton leads Obama by 50 percent to 41 percent with a 4 point margin of error. On Monday, American Research Group had given Clinton a 20 point lead based on an April 11-13 survey, after a series of polls that showed Obama catching Clinton in the state. Clinton had led by 5 points in Rasmussen’s poll last week.

A Quinnipiac University survey conducted April 9-13 had her lead at 50 percent to 44 percent with a 2.1 percent margin of error, unchanged from its April 8 poll. Quinnipiac said it did not find noticeable fallout from Obama's remarks in the part of its survey conducted April 12-13, after they were reported on the Huffington Post.

A SurveyUSA poll conducted April 12-14 has Clinton ahead 54 percent to 40 percent with a 3.9 percent margin of error.

Seventy percent of Americans disapprove of the way President Bush is handling the economy and 65 percent say the same about his handling of Iraq, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted April 10-13. Bush's standing slipped even among Republicans, among whom he garnered only 59 percent approval. A quarter of independents and 6 percent of Democrats gave Bush positive marks.However, on Iraq, Republican support of Bush was a higher 68 percent.

If North Carolina is looking like a lock for Barack Obama, it’s May 6 voting partner, Indiana, is the flip side of the coin for Hillary Clinton. SurveyUSA has her leading Obama 55 percent to 39 percent in a survey conducted April 11-13. SurveyUSA says that shows Clinton 3 points up and Obama 4 points down since its last poll two weeks ago. Clinton runs evenly with Obama among voters under 34 and trounces him in all other age groups. Among white voters (86 percent of the sample), she leads 59 percent to 35 percent while Obama is ahead among black voters 72 percent to 23 percent (11 percent of the sample). Forty-eight percent of Indiana Democrats say the economy is the top issue and Clinton has a 17 point lead among them. For the 16 percent who named Iraq, Clinton and Obama are tied.

Barack Obama continues to hold a big 54 percent to 34 percent lead in North Carolina, where Democrats go to the polls May 6, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted April 12-13. In its March 29-30 poll, Obama had led 54 percent to 36 percent, so if any voters heard about his “bitter” remark over the weekend, it showed no signs of hurting him. PPP’s Dean Debnam said it may be that most likely voters had not heard about the controversy or just that Obama has been running so strongly in the state “that it may not cause him much harm even with folks who do know about his comments.”

A majority of voters said it would make no difference if John Edwards endorsed either candidate. Clinton leads Obama by 51 percent to 37 percent among white voters who make up 56 percent of the sample while Obama leads among black voters, who comprise 37 percent, by 81 percent to 10 percent. Obama has big leads over Clinton among both men and women voters.

Forty-four percent of voters named the economy as the top issue compared to 28 percent who cited Iraq.

Barack Obama has notched his best showing in Gallup’s daily tracking poll since March, leading Clinton in its survey conducted April 11-13 by 50 percent to 40 percent. The margin of error is 3 percent. Gallup said Obama’s support remained strong during the weekend even after the news broke on Friday about his “bitter” remark. However, it remains to be seen how that story plays out in Pennsylvania which holds its primary next week. An American Research Group survey released earlier today, conducted over the same period, had Clinton regaining a significant lead.

John McCain is leading Barack Obama 53 percent to 38 percent in Florida, with Hillary Clinton leading McCain by a statistically insignificant 45 percent to 44 percent, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted April 10. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain is viewed favorably by 62 percent of voters, Clinton by 49 percent and Obama by 42 percent. This is one of the few states in our round-up of general election match-ups where Clinton is not the lowest on the favorability scale. The Rasmussen Reports poll, conducted March 12, had McCain over Obama 47 percent to 43 percent and ahead of Clinton 47 percent to 40 percent

In late March, Clinton had a statistically insignificant lead of 44 percent to 42 percent over McCain, while Obama trails him 46 percent to 37 percent. The margin of error is 2.9 percent. (Quinnipiac University, conducted March 24 – 31). Earlier, Public Policy Polling had McCain ahead of Clinton 47 percent to 43 percent and leading Obama 50 percent to 39 percent in a survey conducted March 15-16. The margin of error was 3.9 percent.

After a series of polls showing Barack Obama catching up with Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania, American Research Group says Clinton has jumped out to the kind of big lead she had earlier in the race, besting Obama 57 percent to 37 percent. The poll was conducted April 11-13 (the story about the Obama “bitter” remark broke late on the first day of the survey) and has a 4 percent margin of error.

Clinton has a big 64 percent to 29 percent lead among white voters who comprised 82 percent of the sample. Obama leads 79 percent to 18 percent among black voters (14 percent of the sample). Nearly a quarter of voters say they have been turned off by Obama’s “excessive” advertising campaign which the Philadelphia Inquirer says today has broken records.

Fifty-six percent of Americans disagree with the now (in)famous “bitter” remark made by Barack Obama at a closed-door fundraiser in San Francisco more than a week ago, according to a Rasmussen Report poll conducted April 12-13. The Huffington Post revealed Friday that Obama had said at the gathering that it was not unsurprising that the reaction to job losses and broken political promises among many Pennsylvanians was that they “get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.” The remark has been pounced upon by Hillary Clinton as evidence of Obama’s elitism, and by Republicans as well.

In the survey, only 25 percent agreed with Obama while 19 percent said they were unsure. Among liberal voters, 46 percent agreed while 33 percent did not. Moderates disagreed 51 percent to 27 percent and 74 percent of conservatives turned thumbs down. Along party lines, 34 percent of Democrats agreed with Obama against 43 percent who disagreed, while Republicans “overwhelmingly” disagreed and unaffiliated voters rejected the remarks by a 2-to-1 margin.

Forty-five percent of voters labeled the remarks as elitist. But 56 percent agreed with what Obama said as he tried to contain any further fall-out, that “People are fed up. They're angry and they're frustrated and they're bitter, and they want to see a change in Washington.”

Hear Obama and Clinton talk about the controversy during last night’s CNN Compassion Forum. A Gallup poll yesterday suggested that a first survey indicated that the remark had not hurt Obama, but let’s see later what today’s daily tracking poll says. CQ Politics blogger Richard Whalen also has something to say about the subject in his post today. And the Philadelphia Inquirer has a piece today assessing reaction in Pennsylvania to the remark.

Gallup says in its daily tracking polls that "initial indications are that the controversial remarks have not yet hurt (Barack) Obama." Obama has a 50 percent to 41 percent lead in Gallup's survey conducted April 10-12 which includes the period in which the Huffington Post revealed that, at a closed San Francisco fundraiser, Obama said it was not unsurprising that the reaction to job losses and broken political promises among many Pennsylvanians is that they “get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.” Obama's lead in Gallup's daily poll was 2 points higher than Saturday's result.

More on this story:

• GOP Turns Up Heat on Democrats Over Obama "Bitter" Remark CQ Politics
• Parsing the "Bitter-gate" Remark Washington Post
• Political Storm Over "Bitter" Remark Hits Indiana Indianapolis Star
• Obama and The White Working Class Salon

Barack Obama has now maintained a statistically significant lead over Hillary Clinton for the 6th straight day in Gallup's daily tracking poll, although the margin again seems to be narrowing. Gallup's April 9-11 survey has Obama ahead 49 percent to 42 percent with a 3 point margin of error. His biggest lead was 9 points on April 6.

Three new general election polls to add today to our round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups:

• North Carolina: In mid-March, John McCain had a 9 point lead over Barack Obama in this state and ran 16 percent ahead of Hillary Clinton in a Rasmussen Reports poll, but in its new survey conducted April 10, Obama and McCain are even at 47 percent. McCain still has a double-digit lead over Clinton but it is now 51 percent to 40 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent.

• New York: a WNBC/Marist poll, conducted April 3-4, concludes from its numbers that the drawn-out Democratic race has taken its toll. It says that if the election were held today, McCain would run “surprisingly close” in New York to either Democrat. Clinton polls 48 percent to 46 percent against McCain, while McCain leads Obama 48 percent to 46 percent. The margin of error is 4 percent. In mid-March, A Quinnipiac University poll put Clinton's home state firmly in the Democratic column no matter which candidate was nominated. The poll, conducted March 16-18, said Clinton led McCain 50 percent to 40 percent while Obama bested him 49 percent to 38 percent. The margin of error is 2.5 percent. A previous SurveyUSA poll, conducted March 14-16, had Clinton ahead 54 percent to 41 percent while Obama led 52 percent to 44 percent.

• Louisiana: McCain leads Barack Obama 52 percent to 41 percent and Hillary Clinton by 58 percent to 36 percent in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted April 9. McCain is viewed favorably by 64 percent of voters, Obama by 53 percent and Clinton by 37 percent.

Here’s one we missed from earlier this week: in New York, a ticket of John McCain and Condoleezza Rice runs slightly ahead of any ticket that is a combination of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, according to a WNBC/Marist poll conducted April 3-4. McCain-Rice leads leads Clinton-Obama 49 percent to 46 percent and Obama-Clinton by 49 percent to 44 percent, with the margin of error at 4 points. If McCain ran with Joe Lieberman, the ticket would lag Clinton-Obama by 53 percent to 40 percent and by 49 percent to 45 percent with Obama-Clinton.

WNBC/Marist concludes from its numbers that the drawn-out Democratic race has taken its toll. It says that if the election were held today, McCain would run “surprisingly close” in New York to either Democrat. Clinton polls 48 percent to 46 percent against McCain, while McCain leads Obama 48 percent to 46 percent.

The number of Americans who believe that this is a good time to get a quality job has fallen to less than half of where it was a year ago, according to a Gallup poll conducted April 6-9. Only 20 percent of those surveyed expressed a positive view of job prospects, down 6 points from last month and from 46 percent in April 2007. Those making less than $30,000 a year felt this most keenly, with those saying this was a good time for finding a quality job falling by almost half since last month. The decline was only 5 points in the $30,000 to $75,000 group, and there was no decline among those making over $75,000, although even in that group only 28 percent believe this was a good time for job-hunting. Fifty-four percent of those polled said they knew someone who had lost their job or been laid off in the last 6 months, and the Midwest was the region registering the highest percentage.

Hillary Clinton has a 47 percent to 43 percent lead over Barack Obama in Pennsylvania with 10 percent undecided, according to a Newsmax/Zogby poll conducted April 9-10. The margin of error is 3,2 percent. The narrowness of the race in this poll is consistent with most other recent surveys. Clinton runs strongly with the more conservative voters in western Pennsylvania while Obama’s edge is in the east, including Philadelphia. Fifty-three percent of likely Democratic voters named the economy as the top issue while 32 percent cited Iraq.

Check out these stories from today’s papers about the Pennsylvania race:

• Pennsylvania Race May Be a Tale of Two Cities Philadelphia Inquirer
• Western Pennsylvania a Stronghold for Clinton Pittsburgh Post Gazette
• Obama May Lose Support in Philadelphia Over “Street Money” Los Angeles Times
• Will Youth Vote Make a Difference? Philadelphia Daily News

Nearly two-thirds of all voters believe Barack Obama will win the Democratic nomination and about one-third say Hillary Clinton should drop out, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted April 9-10. The 62 percent that predict an Obama victory is up from 54 percent last month, and the number of those who think Clinton should give it up rose 10 points. Eight-five percent of Democrats nevertheless say they believe that it is at least somewhat likely the nomination battle will be unresolved by the time of the convention. Forty-eight percent of Democrats think Obama would be the stronger candidate against John McCain, while 38 percent name Clinton.

After all the turmoil in the New York statehouse following former Gov. Eliot Spitzer’s call girl-induced demise, and successor David Paterson’s admissions of infidelity, Zogby took a look at how a gubernatorial race might shape up if either Rudy Giuliani or Michael Bloomberg gets in it. Bloomberg leads Paterson 44 percent to 36 percent with 20 percent undecided, while Paterson beats Giuliani by a handy 49 percent to 34 percent, with 18 percent undecided. The poll was conducted April 4-6 and has a margin of error of 3.6 percent. Paterson is serving out the term to which Spitzer was elected in 2006.

President Bush’s job approval ratings have dropped to the lowest point during his administration, according to a Gallup poll conducted April 6-9. Approval of his performance stood at 28 percent. Two-thirds of Republicans approve of his performance, but only a quarter of independents and 6 percent of Democrats. Only three presidents since World War 2 have ever had lower ratings – Jimmy Carter, Richard Nixon and Harry Truman. The yearly average for Bush’s approval ratings have been falling since his second year in office when they stood at 71.3 percent. Bush registered his highest reading at 90 percent in Sept. 2001.

The three presidents who fared worse as far as low points suffered the drops for a variety of reasons. Nixon, of course, had Watergate. Truman’s administration grappled with an ailing economy and the war in Korea. And Carter’s lowest came at a time when Americans saw the economy as failing and had been stunned by major gasoline shortages.

John McCain is tied with Barack Obama at 45 percent each in an AP-Ipsos poll conducted April 7-9, after having led him by 10 points in late February. Hillary Clinton, who had a 5 point lead over McCain in the previous survey, now is ahead 48 percent to 45 percent, within the poll’s 3.1 percent margin of error. Groups in which Obama lost significant support since February included voters under 35, independents and high-income households.

In the Democratic race, Obama leads Clinton 46 percent to 43 percent, unchanged from this survey’s February results. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. As other polls have been showing to various degrees, a good chunk of each Democrat’s supporters say they will vote for McCain if their choice loses. About a quarter of Obama backers and a third of Clinton supporters are in that camp.

Rasmussen Reports has four new general election match-ups out today with one common denominator: among John McCain, Barack Obama and herself, she has the lowest favorability ratings in all of them.

• Ohio: McCain leads Obama by 47 percent to 40 percent and Clinton by 47 percent to 42 percent in a poll conducted April 8. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. In last month’s Rasmussen poll, McCain led both by 6 points. A Quinnipiac University poll in late March had Clinton leading McCain 48 percent to 39 percent while Obama and McCain were locked at 43 percent to 42 percent. The margin of error was 2.8 percent. On the favorability scale, McCain scores 53 percent positive ratings, Obama 50 percent and Clinton 43 percent. Rasmussen says that if Obama is the nominee, 20 percent of Democrats would vote for McCain while 15 percent of Republicans would defect to Obama. With Clinton leading the ticket, 13 percent of Democrats would cross over to McCain while 9 percent of Republicans would back Clinton.

• New Mexico: A race between McCain and either Democrat looks close right now. Obama leads McCain 45 percent to 42 percent and McCain leads Clinton 46 percent to 43 percent – both results within the 4.5 percent margin of error. McCain is viewed favorably by 57 percent of voters, Obama by 56 percent and Clinton by 46 percent, according to this April 8 survey. A mid-March SurveyUSA poll had shown both Clinton and Obama ahead of McCain by 51 percent to 45 percent, with a 4.4 percent margin of error.

• Alaska: McCain leads Clinton by 25 points and Obama by 48 percent to 43 percent, with a 4.5 percent margin of error, in a poll conducted April 7. McCain’s favorable rating is 63 percent, Obama’s is 55 percent and Clinton’s is 35 percent.

• Montana: McCain leads Obama by 48 percent to 43 percent, and is way ahead of Clinton, 54 percent to 36 percent, according to a poll conducted April 6. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Rasmussen was impressed by Obama’s showing given George W. Bush’s 25 point victory in 2004. McCain is viewed favorably by 56 percent of voters, Obama by 54 percent and Clinton by 42 percent.

Just as with the case when matched against Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama would perform better with more highly-educated voters than John McCain, according to a Gallup analysis of its polling conducted March 31 – April 6. However, the gap between the two is much less marked than it is between Obama and Clinton. McCain leads Obama among voters with a high school education or less by 46 percent to 40 percent, with a 3 percent margin of error. They are essentially tied among voters with some college or a college degree, while Obama leads 52 percent to 42 percent among those with postgraduate education. Clinton would lead McCain 48 percent to 43 percent among voters with a high school education or less but runs behind McCain in all the groups with higher education levels.

A lot of recent polls have reported on the grim view Americans have about the economy, and going hand in glove with those is a new Pew Research study that says fewer middle-class Americans now believe they’re moving forward in life than at any time in the last 50 years. A quarter of Americans say that in the past five years they haven’t improved their status and 31 percent say they have fallen backward, according to Pew which based its findings on its own polling plus analysis of data from the Census Bureau data and other sources. Fifty-three percent of Americans identify themselves as middle-class.

The Pew’s own survey, conducted Jan. 24 - Feb. 19, reports that 79 percent of adults say it is more difficult than it was 5 years ago for middle class people to maintain their standard of living, although on the brighter side, two-thirds say they have exceeded the standard-of-living that their parents had at the same age. Twenty-six percent blame the government, 15 percent blame the price of oil, 11 percent blame the people themselves, 8 percent blame foreign competition, and 5 percent blame private corporations. Among those, 35 percent of Democrats blame the government, while 17 percent of Republicans blame the people themselves, 16 percent blame government and 16 percent blame the price of oil.

Barack Obama has a 49 percent to 39 percent lead over Hillary Clinton in North Carolina with 7 percept undecided, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted April 5-7. The margin of error is 3.7 percent. SurveyUSA says this is exactly where Obama was two months ago, although polls in late March by American Research Group and Public Policy Polling had him ahead by larger margins.

Obama is ahead among both men and women voters, and all age groups except those over 65. There's a stark racial divide: Clinton leads among white voters (62 percent of the sample) by 53 percent to 31 percent, while Obama is ahead among black voters (32 percent of the sample) by 85 percent to 10 percent.

Stories from North Carolina:

• Michele Obama Courts Voters for Barack Raleigh News and Observer
• Michele Obama Talks About “Regular Folks” in North Carolina Winston Salem Journal

There’s more evidence of how the race in Pennsylvania is tightening between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, despite one out-there-all-alone poll released this week by SurveyUSA that showed Hillary Clinton ahead by double digits. Public Policy Polling says a survey conducted April 7-8 shows Clinton ahead 46 percent to 43 percent, with the margin of error at 2.9 percent. Last week, she was 2 points behind Obama and, in mid-March, Clinton had led 56 percent to 30 percent in this poll.

Gallup has sorted through its polling to further document why there has been such a divide among Democrats along the lines of education in terms of backing either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, but in the end, can’t find enough evidence to support a good explanation for it.

Based on data collected April 1-7, Gallup reports that Clinton leads Obama by 50 percent to 43 percent among voters who have a high school education or less. But as you go up the education ladder, Obama’s advantage steadily increases: 53 percent to 40 percent over Clinton among voters with some college, 59 percent to 35 percent among college graduates, and 64 percent to 30 percent among those with postgraduate studies. Black Democrats support Obama across all education levels.

Gallup considers various theories such as the idea that less-educated voters are also less receptive to a black candidate. But it notes that in a poll it did last year, there was not much difference between highly and less educated voters on the question of whether they would vote for a "generally well-qualified person for president who happened to be black." Gallup also did not find much evidence that the Jeremiah Wright controversy caused any backlash among less educated voters. It also rejected name recognition as a possible factor since both candidates have wide name recognition. In the end, the Gallup people mused: “ It could be that less well-educated voters are simply more comfortable with candidates who have been around for a long time (Clinton in this year's race), while Democratic voters with higher education levels are more comfortable supporting someone who is new on the scene.”

Two polls to add to the list of our state-by-state general election match-ups: Alabama and Washington state.

John McCain leads both Democrats by wide margins in Alabama: Barack Obama by 55 percent to 37 percent and Hillary Clinton by 51 percent to 40 percent, according to Rasmussen Reports. The poll was conducted April 2 and has a 4.5 percent margin of error. McCain’s favorability rating is 60 percent, but only 46 percent have a positive view of Clinton and 39 percent regard Obama favorably. Forty-five percent of voters say the economy is the top issue and 16 percent cite Iraq. This is unchanged since we reported a SurveyUSA poll conducted March 14-16.

In Washington state, Obama leads McCain 51 percent to 44 percent while McCain is in a virtual 46 percent to 45 percent tie with Clinton, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted April 7. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. McCain runs ahead of Clinton among men voters by 57 percent to 34 percent, while she leads him among women voters by an almost identical margin. Obama does better among men, trailing McCain by a smaller 51 percent to 47 percent margin, while holding a double digit lead among women. Obama and Clinton both best McCain among voters under 34, though one age group where McCain runs strongly is the 35-to-49 bracket when matched against Clinton. A mid-March SurveyUSA poll had Obama ahead of McCain by 9 points and Clinton by 5 points, with a 4.4 percent margin of error.

The Democratic presidential campaign has changed the minds of some voters about their choice for nominee, and Barack Obama has benefited the most from those who have, according to a Gallup poll conducted March 24-27. Nineteen percent of those surveyed said they had switched from Hillary Clinton to Barack Obama since January, compared to 7 percent who switched from Obama to Clinton. About one-third of the supporters of each candidate said they always preferred their original choice.

On the heels of several polls showing a tightening race in Pennsylvania, Survey USA says that Hillary Clinton is leading Barack Obama by 56 percent to 38 percent. The poll was conducted April 5-7 and has a 41 percent margin of error. Clinton is running fairly evenly with Obama among men voters but leads him 61 percent to 33 percent among women. She leads in double-digits among all age groups above 35, and particularly among seniors where she has a 3-to-1 advantage. There is a huge racial divide: Clinton leads 61 percent to 32 percent among the 82 percent of the sample that is white, while Obama leads 74 percent to 24 percent among the 14 percent who are black. Of the 45 percent of voters who say the economy is the campaign’s top issue, Clinton leads 54 percent to 40 percent. Eighteen percent of Democratic voters say Iraq is the top issue, and she leads among them by 52 percent to 43 percent. Health care is third at 15 percent, and those voters prefer Clinton 59 percent to 32 percent.

Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton in Oregon by 52 percent to 42 percent, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted April 4-6. The balance of error is 4.1 percent. Oregon holds its primary May 20. Obama has almost a 2-to-1 lead over Clinton among men voters while her advantage among women is 50 percent to 43 percent. The biggest age gap between the two is among voters in the 35-to-49 bracket where Obama leads, again, by almost 2-to-1.

Oregon is one state where Iraq rivals the economy as the top issue, with 30 percent naming the economy and 27 percent citing Iraq. Among those most concerned about the economy, Oregon Democrats divide evenly among Clinton and Obama, but prefer Obama on Iraq by 61 percent to 32 percent.

It looks more and more like Barack Obama is giving Hillary Clinton a run for her money in Pennsylvania. A new Quinnipiac University poll, conducted April 3-6, shows Clinton ahead of Obama by only 50 percent to 44 percent, with a 2.7 percent margin of error. That compares to Clinton’s 9 point Margin in Quinnipiac’s April 2 survey. An American Research Group poll released yesterday had the two tied at 45 percent each, compared to ARG’s late March poll where Clinton led by 12 points.

A Rasmussen Reports poll released today has Clinton ahead 48 percent to 43 percent, with a 4 point margin of error. The poll was conducted April 7. However, where Quinnipiac is sniffing a possible upset, Rasmussen characterized its findings as showing "the race has stabilized for the moment."

Clinton’s lead among women declined 4 points since the last poll and her advantage among white voters was down by 8 points. The economy is named the most important issue in the campaign by 52 percent of Pennsylvania Democrats and Clinton holds a slim 49 percent to 45 percent margin among them. Twenty-two percent of voters named Iraq, and Obama leads among them 51 percent to 44 percent.

As Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top U.S. military commander in Iraq, and Amb. Ryan C. Crocker testify about the war on Capitol Hill today, they do so against a backdrop of an American public that, as a whole, overwhelmingly wants a timetable set for withdrawal of U.S. troops but is sharply split on that issue along partisan lines, according to a Gallup analysis.

Gallup analyzed data gathered Feb. 21-24 and found that Americans, by a 60 percent to 35 percent margin, want a timetable for withdrawal. Democrats favor that 81 percent to 15 percent but Republicans oppose the idea 65 percent to 32 percent. Republicans are divided amongst themselves: nearly three-quarters of conservative Republicans oppose a timetable for withdrawal, but self-described moderate/liberal Republicans are evenly divided. Independents favor a withdrawal timetable by 61 percent to 32 percent. Fifty-eight percent of Americans believe the surge made no difference or made the situation worse in Iraq compared to 40 percent who said it made things better. Seventy percent of Republicans believed that but 61 percent of Independents, like the Democrats, did not.

Still, although a majority favor a timetable for withdrawal, voters of all stripes appear to be cautious about it. Americans believe 65 percent to 32 percent that the U.S. has an obligation to establish security in Iraq and two-thirds believe Iraq will be “better off in the long run” after the war. Majorities of all political groupings subscribe to that view.

A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted April 1-2 says 65 percent of Americans want U.S. troops brought home with a year. Forty-three percent said the troop "surge" had not worked compared to 32 percent who say it has. Of those, 61 percent of Republicans believe it has worked while 59 percent of Democrats say it has not. Fifty-one percent of unaffiliated voters say it has not worked.

Another Gallup poll released today shows a statistically significant lead for Barack Obama in the race against Hillary Rodham Clinton for the Democratic presidential primary. In the nationwide poll of 1,240 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, Obama now has a 52 percent to 43 percent lead over Clinton. His current level of support matches his highest of the year, which he reached previously on March 29.

In national general election polling, Obama is tied with Republican nominee John McCain. McCain has a slim two percentage point lead (47 percent to 45 percent) over Clinton in a hypothetical general election match-up.

The margin of error for the Democratic nomination results is ±3 percentage points, and the poll was conducted April 4-6. The general election results are based on data from 4,380 registered voters contacted April 2-6. The margin of error is ±2 percentage points.

Republicans and Democrats don't agree on how bad the mortgage crisis is and what should be done about it. In a Gallup poll released today, 40 percent of Republican respondents support a federal bailout for homeowners in contrast to the 71 percent of Democrats and 55 percent of independents who think that the government should step in. But, more Democrats believe the value of their homes has decreased (38 percent) than believe it has increased (33 percent), while more Republicans have a positive view (38 percent) than a pessimistic one (27 percent). Among independents, 40 percent perceive a declining value and only 29 percent believe the value has increased.

Nearly two-thirds of adults polled nationwide by Rassmussen over the weekend believe that the government is not doing enough to turn around the economy. Sixty-three percent of respondents don't think the government is taking sufficient action to curb the downturn, and only 19 percent think the government response is adequate.

Although the poll of 1,000 adults released today indicates a widespread belief that the government should do more, respondents don't agree on what "more" means. While 32 percent advocate an increase in federal regulation of financial markets and 22 percent support less regulation, more than one quarter of respondents (27 percent) are not sure whether or how the government should regulate policy.

Barack Obama has moved into a 45 percent to 45 percent tie with Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania, according to an American Research Group poll conducted April 5-6. The margin of error is 4 points. This contrasts to the 51 percent to 39 percent lead Clinton had in its March 26-27 survey. There is a big gender gap here with Obama leading in double digits among men while Clinton leads in double digits among women. The same is true with race and age: Clinton is ahead 52 percent to 36 percent among white voters (80 percent of sample), Obama leads among black voters 89 percent to 9 percent (16 percent of sample); Obama leads 52 percent to 38 percent among voters under 49 (52 percent of sample) while Clinton leads 52 percent to 38 percent among those over 50.

Adding to our round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups today is Iowa where Rasmussen Reports says, based on a March 31 survey, that Barack Obama is leading John McCain 46 percent to 42 percent, but that McCain trounces Hillary Clinton by 51 percent to 36 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. A key factor in these results are the loyalties of unaffiliated voters who favor Obama over McCain by 46 percent to 37 percent, but who prefer McCain over Clinton by 2-to-1. A SurveyUSA poll conducted in mid-March had McCain leading Clinton 48 percent to 44 percent and Obama leading McCain 50 percent to 44 percent, with a 4.4 percent margin of error.

Read past the jump to see polls from other states we've gathered:

Forty-seven percent of voters in North Carolina, where Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama face each other in a May 6 primary, say that the economy is the top national issue in the campaign and 31 percent said it was the top issue for the state, according to a second installment of a Charlotte Observer/WCNC-TV poll conducted March 29 – April 1. Yesterday’s story focused on the honesty and trust issue and found that Clinton had a serious problem with voters when it came to those attributes.

Voters cited concerned about gasoline prices, cost of health insurance, taxes, the housing slowdown and difficulty in finding a new job. While concern about the economy cut across party and demographic lines, Republicans were likely to be more concerned about illegal immigration than Democrats.

A new poll in North Carolina, where surveys consistently show Barack Obama with a big lead over Hillary Clinton, says a key element in Obama’s success is that the state’s voters value trust over experience. The survey for the Charlotte Observer/WCNC-TV reported that only 25 percent of voters gave high marks to Clinton for trustworthiness compared to 48 percent for Obama and 54 percent for John McCain. Nearly 9 in 10 voters said trust would be a major factor in deciding how they would vote.

At the same time, a new Rasmussen Reports survey conducted April 3 says Obama's lead over Clinton has now soared to 56 percent to 33 percent. With that gap, you probably don't need to know the margin of error, but it is 4 percent. Rasmussen noted that one bit of bad news for Obama is that 56 percent of Clinton supporters said they would not be likely to vote for Obama in a race against McCain. The Charlotte Observer poll put that number lower, saying 20 percent of Clinton supporters would vote for McCain if Obama gets the nomination while 13 percent of Obama backers would do the same if Clinton is the nominee.

The poll was conducted as Clinton got caught up in news reports contradicting her account of once coming under sniper fire in Bosnia. The same doubts about Clinton’s honesty have surfaced in polls by Gallup and Pew Research

On the honesty issue, Rasmussen says 77 percent have followed news stories about Clinton’s misstatements about her Bosnia trip. Twenty-three percent say they are a "very important" issue while 25 percent say the issue is "somewhat important." Sixty-three percent say that most politicians lie or embellish the truth when discussing their own accomplishments.

The state's May 6 primary is the next big prize on the campaign trail after the April 22 vote in Pennsylvania.

The Charlotte Observer poll also found:

• Two-thirds of voters give Obama high marks for his ability to connect with voters compared to a third who give McCain and Clinton high marks.
• Three-quarters give high marks to Obama for intelligence compared to the more than the two-thirds who gave his rivals high marks.

Barack Obama maintains the same 49 percent to 44 percent lead in today's Gallup daily tracking poll that he held on Friday, but the survey reported a slight shift in the general election match-ups with Obama and John McCain tied at 45 percent each. McCain leads Clinton 47 percent to 45 percent. Gallup notes that this is one of the few daily snapshots in which McCain's support has dropped enough to put him in a tie with either Democrat.

Barack Obama has a substantial 50 percent to 38 percent lead over Hillary Clinton among voters who say they participate in Democratic primaries, according to a Diageo/Hotline poll conducted March 28-31. The margin of error is 5.3 percent. This is a pretty different result than yesterday’s New York Times/CBS News poll which put Obama over Clinton by 46 percent to 43 percent, within the poll’s 4 percent margin of error. Gallup’s daily tracking poll conducted March 30 – April 3 has Obama ahead 49 percent to 44 percent, an uptick of two points since yesterday. The margin of error is 3 percent.

Diageo/Hotline asked Democrats how much they felt the candidates had attacked each other unfairly. Clinton was blamed for unfair attacks by a 49 percent to 42 percent margin, while only 22 percent felt Obama had launch unfair attacks versus 70 percent who said he hasn’t. Obama’s favorability rating stands at 77 percent among those who identify themselves as Democrats, a 7 point gain since February, while Clinton’s favorability rating dropped 11 points to 43 percent.

In general election match-ups, McCain leads Clinton 50 percent to 41 percent and Obama by 46 percent to 44 percent. The margin of error here is 3.5 percent. That’s not much change since February in the Clinton-McCain match-up, but it represents a reversal for Obama who had led McCain in February. The Times/CBS News poll had both Democrats ahead of McCain.

There is no runaway favorite among Republicans as far as who they would like to see as John McCain’s running mate, according to a Gallup poll conducted March 24-27. As often happens, some of the also-rans in the Republican race top the list with Mike Huckabee at 18 percent and Mitt Romney at 15 percent. Everyone else tails off into long single digits after Condoleezza Rice (8 percent) and Fred Thompson (4 percent).

There are more signs today of a tightening race in Pennsylvania between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. A poll by the Allentown Morning Call and Muhlenberg College conducted March 27 – April 2 showed Clinton ahead by 49 percent to 38 percent, a nice margin, but down 3 points from mid-February. The margin of error is 5 points. A Strategic Vision poll conducted March 28-30 has Clinton up by 47 percent to 41 percent, compared to last month when she led by 18 points. This poll had a 3 point margin of error. The new surveys come on the heels of other polls, most of which had Clinton still ahead but by declining margins.

Obama appears to be benefiting by his six day barnstorming tour in the state plus a big statewide advertising campaign. ''After a barnstorming tour, all kinds of media attention throughout the state, plus his ad buy, you'd really start to see some questions raised if he wasn't having some traction in the polls,'' said Chris Borick, director of Muhlenberg College's Institute of Public Opinion.

Clinton fares much better in Pennsylvania than other states in her favorability rating with 77 percent holding positive views of her against 21 percent. Obama’s favorability rating is also up around 70 percent.

A new poll in Indiana suggests that Hillary Clinton’s lead in this May 6 primary state is narrowing. The survey commissioned by news organizations in the state said Clinton was leading Obama 49 percent to 46 percent, with a 5 point margin of error. Although it is always perilous to compare two pollsters to another, an earlier poll by SurveyUSA, conducted March 29-31, had Clinton ahead 52 percent to 43 percent.

However, an American Research Group survey conducted April 2-3 gives Clinton a little more breathing room, with a 53 percent to 44 percent lead. The margin of error is 4 percent. Clinton leads 49 percent to 47 percent among men and 56 percent to 41 percent among women. Among white voters (85 percent of the sample), Clinton leads 57 percent to 39 percent while Obama leads 79 percent to 11 percent among black voters (11 percent of the sample).

A New York Times/CBS News poll has some big headlines: Americans are unhappier about the direction of the country than they have been in more than a decade, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are effectively tied in the Democratic race although Democrats appear more enthusiastic about him than Clinton, and both Democrats lead John McCain in general election match-ups, although by modest margins showing that the November race looks competitive. The poll was conducted March 28- April 2.

Let’s start with the horse races and then we’ll get to the grim state of mind of Americans that is reported in this survey.

• Obama leads Clinton 46 percent to 43 percent, compared to February when Obama, coming off a long string of victories, had led Clinton 54 percent to 38 percent. The margin of error is 4 percent.
• The “softening” of Obama’s standing is marked among men and high-income voters. Obama's margin over Clinton among men has dropped from 67 percent to 28 percent in February to 47 percent to 42 percent. His favorability rating – although still high at 62 percent – has dropped 7 points since late February. But the decline for Obama does not add up to the kind of plummet that the Clinton campaign needs.
• Over half of Democrats sampled believe he has a better chance of beating McCain in November, and most expect him to win the nomination.
• Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 42 percent, compared to 50 percent to 38 percent in February. Clinton leads McCain 48 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is 3 percent.
• Eighty-one percent of Americans believe “things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track” compared to 69 percent a year ago and 35 percent in 2003. A majority of nearly every major demographic and political group subscribed to this view. This was the highest figure in this poll dating back to 1991.
• Seventy-eight percent said the country was worse off than it was five years ago. This was the highest figure ever in this poll.
• About a fifth of Americans said the economy was in good condition, the lowest number since 1992 after the country had come out of a recession.
• Twenty percent said the most important economic problem facing the U.S. today were fuel costs and 11 percent said jobs and the economy. Those were the two top concerns with all others in single digits. Click here for a round-up of what the candidates are saying on the economy.

Seventy-six percent of Americans say the country is ready for an African-American president, according to a CNN/ESSENCE Magazine/Opinion Research poll conducted March 26 to April 2. That number was 14 points higher than it was in December 2006. CNN polling director says it’s clear that the candidacy of Barack Obama has contributed significantly to the difference: “We’re not asking this question in a vacuum,” he said. “In many cases, respondents must’ve had Obama in mind … even though he is not mentioned anywhere in the questionnaire.”

A second Pennsylvania poll now has Barack Obama caught up with Hillary Clinton. In a survey conducted April 2, InsiderAdvantage says Clinton leads Obama 45 percent to 43 percent with 12 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.7 percent.

A survey released yesterday by Public Policy Polling caught a lot of people by surprise when it put Obama ahead 45 percent to 43 percent. It’s survey was conducted April 1. There have been three other polls this week – one by Quinnipiac conducted in late March that had Clinton ahead by 9 points and still running strongly; and a pair by Rasmussen Reports and SurveyUSA that had her ahead by 5 and 8 points respectively, but noted signs of erosion. Prior to that, Clinton had enjoyed double-digit leads in the state in just about every poll.

Matt Towery of InsiderAdvantage said, “This could be the beginning of the end of the Clinton campaign. The crosstabs show Obama trailing among white voters, but by only a 49%-40% margin. More importantly, Obama has a lead among African-American voters of 56%-29%, with the remainder undecided.”

Clinton is under intense pressure to win big here, which is one reason that Obama may have decided to make a big push in a state where she started out with a commanding lead. If Obama wins or Clinton ekes out only a close victory, Obama would preserve his lead in popular votes and delegates.

Six out of 10 Americans oppose the federal government helping in the kind of bail-outs that helped Bear Stearns avert failure, according to a Gallup poll conducted March 24-27. Opposition to the bail-outs were pretty evenly reflected across party lines. Last month, the Federal Reserve had voted to provide Bear Stearns with emergency credit to help it avoid bankruptcy. However, Americans do favor, 56 percent to 42 percent, having the federal government help people from losing their homes because they can’t keep up with their mortgage payments. This has become an issue in the presidential campaign with the Democratic candidates generally favoring that position while John McCain has said, “It is not the duty of government to bail out and reward those who act irresponsibly, whether they are big banks or small borrowers.”

Voters who consider themselves Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 41.1 percent to 32.1 percent in March, according a Rasmussen Reports survey. Last December, the Democratic number had stood at 36.1 percent. Rasmussen said that Democratic gains were particularly marked among women who broke 46 percent to 30 percent for the Democrats. Democrats were about even with Republicans among men, edging the GOP by 36 percent to 34 percent. The Democrats’ advantage was also documented in a Pew Research survey last month.

About 4 in 10 voters said they had received pre-recorded “robo-calls” about the presidential campaign in March, a big jump over the 25 percent who reported them last November, according to a Pew Research survey conducted March 19-22. In states that have had a primary or caucus, the number is 44 percent, while in those that have not had an election, the number is 16 percent. Congress is currently considering restrictions on the practice.

We expressed some surprise the other day about how well John McCain was doing in New Jersey in a Rasmussen Reports poll that showed him statistically tied with both potential Democratic opponents. A new Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll doesn’t have McCain tied, but it does have him close: with Clinton ahead 48 percent to 43 percent and Obama by 47 percent to 42 percent. The margin of error is 3.5 percent.

Obama’s advantage over Clinton against McCain is that he does better among independent voters. Clinton’s advantage over Obama is that she holds together more of the Democratic base than he does. On the other hand, Republicans are more united behind McCain in a race against Clinton than Obama, although in either case, McCain can count on the support of 80 percent or more of them.

Dan Cassino of Fairleigh Dickinson said, “New Jersey is reflective of the national race. Clinton is a polarizing figure, getting more support from the Democratic base at the cost of solidifying McCain’s support among Republicans.”

Gallup has analyzed its daily tracking polls between March 7 and March 31 to see how age and gender “gaps” between the John McCain and with of the Democratic contenders would play out in the general election campaign. It found:

• A match-up between McCain and Hillary Clinton would have a significant gender gap, but their strengths and weaknesses among different age groups would make less of a difference.
• The Obama-McCain match-up is a little more complicated. Obama would enjoy a big advantage – 53 percent to 39 percent – among women in the 18-to-49 group. The flip side is that McCain has a solid 52 percent to 38 percent advantage with men over 50. Gallup says older women and younger men tend to split more evenly among the two.

Gallup had a new twist today on what it asked Americans: What do you least like about the presidential contenders? The poll was conducted March 24-27.

• The candidate Americans least want to see as President is John McCain. Forty percent expressed that view versus 36 percent who want no part of Hillary Clinton and 36 percent who don’t want Obama. Before you leap to conclusions, Gallup notes: “McCain leads this inauspicious list in part because he is the only Republican among the three candidates -- meaning he is the primary focus of Democrats and independents who lean Democratic, while Republicans can split their choices between Obama and Clinton.”
• Of those who least want to see Obama in the White House, 39 percent cited his inexperience as the reason, followed by 15 percent who don’t trust him, 12 percent who disagree with his views and 11 percent who dislike his religious affiliation.
• McCain’s biggest problem is his support of the war in Iraq. Twenty-seven percent of his detractors don’t want to see him elected for that reason. Twenty-five percent say he is too much like President Bush and 23 percent say it is simply because he is a Republican.
• Honesty is Clinton’s biggest weakness, as previous polling has shown. Twenty-four percent of her critics say they don’t trust her, 18 percent don’t want Bill anywhere near the White House again, 16 percent just don’t like her, 12 percent believe she’d do a bad job, 11 percent cite “past baggage,” and 10 percent don’t agree with her political views.

Quinnipiac University’s latest “swing state” polls show that, in general election match-ups, John McCain would have an edge over Barack Obama in Florida, that Hillary Clinton would run strongest for the Democrats in Ohio, and that either Democrat would beat McCain in Pennsylvania. The surveys were conducted March 24-31.

• Florida: Clinton has a statistically insignificant lead of 44 percent to 42 percent over McCain, while Obama trails him 46 percent to 37 percent. The margin of error is 2.9 percent.
• Ohio: Clinton leads McCain 48 percent to 39 percent while Obama and McCain are locked at 43 percent to 42 percent. The margin of error is 2.8 percent.
• Pennsylvania: Clinton leads McCain 48 percent to 40 percent and Obama is ahead 43 percent to 39 percent. The margin of error is 2.5 percent.

"When it comes to November, Sen. Hillary Clinton's strength is a big edge over Sen. Barack Obama among white voters, who have not given a majority of their votes to a Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson in 1964," said Quinnipiac’s Peter Brown. “In this survey, her strength among white voters is why she runs better against Sen. McCain than does Sen. Obama.”

Read past the jump for our round-up of other state-by-state general election match-ups.

Two new polls on Pennsylvania today tell two different stories: Public Policy Polling says that Baraack Obama has wiped out Hillary Clinton's lead in the state while a survey by Quinnipiac University still has her lead in double-digits.

Obama moved into a 45 percent to 43 percent lead over Hillary Clinton in a March 31 – April 1 survey conducted by Public Policy Polling. While the lead is statistically insignificant - the margin of error is 2.8 percent – it marks the first time in any of the polls taken there this year that Obama has caught up to Clinton, who had enjoyed double-digit leads most of the way. Two polls yesterday had Clinton still ahead, but both noted erosion in her support. The last PPP poll a little over two weeks ago had Clinton ahead by 26 points.

PPP’s Dean Debnam said, “the major movement in Obama’s direction in Pennsylvania could be an indication that Democrats in that state think it’s time to wrap it up.”

But the Quinnipiac poll conducted March 24-31 says Clinton still leads 50 percent to 41 percent, which is 3 points lower for her than than its mid-March survey. The margin of error is 2.5 percent.

"Her strength is her clear advantage among white voters - blue collar whites, less educated whites, economically hurting whites, that group known famously as Reagan Democrats in the Keystone State," said Quinnipiac's Clay Richards. "Obama is marshalling all his forces, but despite his eloquent dialogue on the race issue, Pennsylvania Democrats are unmoved. So Far."

Pennsylvania with its 188 delegates (with 158 of them at stake on April 22) is crucial to Clinton’s survival, given Obama’s lead in the delegate count. The Associated Press count has Obama ahead 1,632 to 1,500. What raises the stakes even more is that polls show Obama has a big lead in the May 6 North Carolina primary which has 134 delegates. These states are the two biggest prizes left on the primary trail.

While John McCain has been running essentially even with both Democratic hopefuls in its daily tracking polls, Gallup took a look under the hood of the numbers collected between March 7-29 to see what different dynamics played into match-ups between McCain and Obama or Clinton.

Gallup's topline findings:

• Clinton does better than Obama against McCain in the three ideological groups of white Democrats.She does slightly better than Obama among liberals, 13 points better among moderates, and 28 points better among conservative Democrats. Obama wins conservative Democrats in a race against McCain by only 50 percent to 35 percent.
• Obama does better than Clinton against McCain among independents and Republicans, an argument he has been making in terms of his ability to make inroads in traditionally GOP states. McCain beats either Democrat handily among "pure" independents, but Obama is somewhat more competitive in this group than Clinton, trailing McCain by 13 points versus her 25 point disadvantage. And, while the difference isn't large (9 points) Obama runs better than Clinton among moderate and liberal Republicans.

Hillary Clinton has a 52 percent to 43 percent lead over Barack Obama in Indiana whose primary is coming up on May 6, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted March 29-31. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. Obama has a big lead among voters under 34, but Clinton bests him in all other age groups by significant margins. Clinton leads among white voters (86 percent of the sample) by 58 percent to 37 percent while Obama leads among black voters (11 percent of the sample) by 79 percent to 21 percent, which is a better showing for Clinton among blacks than she has enjoyed in other states. The economy was named as the top issue by 44 percent of voters, with the majority of those favoring Clinton. Iraq was next at 18 percent and the two ran evenly among those voters. Health care was third at 15 percent and Clinton had the advantage there. Indiana has 72 delegates.

Clinton has a 2-to-1 lead in Kentucky which votes May 20, SurveyUSA said based on a survey it conducted March 28-30. Clinton has big leads in all age groups. She is ahead of Obama by 3-to-1 among white voters (89 percent of the sample) while Obama leads among black voters (8 percent of the sample) by 80 percent to 18 percent. Nearly half of the voters cite the economy as the top issue and they go for Clinton 3-to-1. Clinton has double-digit leads over Obama on health care and Iraq which each were cited by 14 percent of voters. Kentucky has 59 delegates

If Barack Obama gets the Democratic nomination, only 42 percent of Democrats want Hillary Clinton to be his running mate, according to a Gallup poll conducted March 24-27. However, if Clinton gets the nomination, 58 percent of Democrats would want her to choose Obama.

Meanwhile, Gallup’s daily tracking poll is showing the gap between Obama and Clinton narrowing again. Obama had pulled out in the lead by 10 points just a few days ago, but that has been slowly declining since then and is now a 49 percent to 45 percent lead. The survey was conducted March 29-31 and has a 3 point margin of error. Jeff Jones of Gallup gives a behind-the-scenes look of the workings of the tracking poll on Pollster.com after the site suggested that some of the patterns in the poll reflected a "day of the week effect."

Two polls – two different results – for the Democratic horse-race in Pennsylvania Rasmussen Reports has Hillary Clinton’s lead over Barack Obama down to 47 percent to 42 percent in a survey conducted March 31. The margin of error is 4 points. But SurveyUSA still has her ahead of Obama with a double-digit lead of 53 percent to 41 percent. This poll was conducted March 29-31.

But both pollsters agree that Clinton’s lead is shrinking since their last survey. Rasmussen’s March 24 poll had Clinton ahead 49 percent to 39 percent, and she had been leading in its March 12 poll by 51 percent to 38 percent. A Franklin & Marshall poll conducted March 11-16 had Clinton ahead 51 percent to 35 percent. The erosion of Clinton’s lead could be due to Obama’s decision to make a serious push in Pennsylvania in hopes of a knock-out blow despite the long advantage she has held there ads.

More than half of Americans - 55 percent -- believe it will be two years before the U.S. economy starts to recover, according to a Gallup Poll conducted March 24-27. Only 22 percent believe the downturn will last a year or less. Forty-six percent say the economy will get a little worse than it is now and 33 percent predict it will get a lot worse.

Asked what one or two issues the President and Congress should most immediately address, adults in the survey said the economy (48 percent), Iraq (42 percent), health care (21 percent) and fuel prices and energy (10 percent). All other issues were in single digits.