Two new national polls came out late today, one from New York Times/CBS News and the other from NBC News/Wall Street Journal. Times/CBS News has Obama leading by a statistically significant amount, while the NBC News/Journal poll has Obama ahead but within the margin of error.

Barack Obama has widened his lead over Hillary Clinton to 8 points in a new New York Times/CBS News poll conducted April 25-29, an increase over the margins he held in April and March. Obama is ahead 46 percent to 38 percent with 14 percent undecided and a 5 point margin of error. That undecided number is up 6 points since early April. The other point to take into account is that this lead is among Democrats who have already participated in a primary this year or plan to. When all registered Democrats are considered, the two are essentially even.

In the NBC/Journal poll, conducted April 25-28, Obama leads by 46 percent to 43 percent among Democrats (this is regardless of whether they voted or not in the primaries) with 7 percent undecided and the margin of error at 3.1 percent. In its general election match-up, the poll has McCain running nearly even with either Democrat which the Journal says "clouds the outcome of a race that was expected to be tough for Republicans."

In a sharp reversal from March, more Democrats believe Hillary Clinton is the stronger candidate against John McCain compared to Barack Obama, according to a poll conducted April 28-29 by Fox News/Opinion Dynamics. Forty-eight percent of Democrats say that, versus 38 percent who give Obama the better chance. In mid-March, Obama had led Clinton by 10 points on this score. The numbers may reflect the campaign stumbles Obama has had in recent weeks, prompting some Democrats to believe he is not ready for prime time in a general election contest. One finding of this poll (below) is that a large majority of voters across partisan lines believe that Obama has been hurt by the Jeremiah Wright controversy.

Democrats want Clinton to win the party’s nomination by a 44 percent to 41 percent over Obama with 8 percent saying “neither” and 7 percent “don’t know.” However, the margin of error for the Democratic sample is 5 percent. Statistically, it’s not much change from March when the numbers were Clinton by 40 percent to 38 percent. Clinton did, though, cut into Obama’s edge among independents. In mid-March he led Clinton 30 percent to 21 percent, with a big undecided, and now his lead is 33 percent to 30 percent.

Both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are comfortably ahead of John McCain in a New Jersey general election match-up, but a Monmouth University/Gannett poll found suggestions of what it described as “buyers’ remorse” in the 10-point victory the state’s Democrats gave Clinton in its Feb. 5 primary. Obama leads John McCain by 56 percent to 32 percent and Clinton is ahead by 52 percent to 38 percent. But now, Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they favor Obama over Clinton by 45 percent to 38 percent. Obama’s favorability ratings is 58 percent to 27 percent, Clinton’s is 46 percent to 43 percent and McCain comes out on the negative side with 45 percent who view him unfavorably compared to 39 percent.

Kentucky, which has 60 delegates, votes May 20 and a SurveyUSA poll conducted April 26-28 shows Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama 63 percent to 27 percent. We assure you this is beyond the margin of error. Clinton has commanding leads over Obama on every one of the eight top campaign issues in the poll, as well as all gender and age groups.

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are in a statistical dead-heat in Indiana, according to a poll conducted April 23-24 by Gauge Market Research and Howey Politics Indiana. The numbers are Obama 47 percent to 45 percent over Clinton, with 8 percent undecided and a 4.1 percent margin of error. That contrasts with a survey by Public Policy Polling released yesterday showing Clinton up by 8.

In the favorability ratings, Clinton is viewed unfavorably by a 42 percent to 37 percent margin with 20 percent neutral. Obama is viewd favorably by 41 percent to 34 percent with 24 percent neutral, while John McCain has a 47 percent to 25 percent favorability rating with 27 percent neutral.

Overall, Indiana voters are divided at 43 percent each about whether to stay in Iraq or pull out. However, Democrats want immediate withdrawal by an overwhelming 71 percent to 15 percent margin.

And, if there was any doubt, the favorite college or university sports team among Hoosiers is Indiana university, by far, with 37 percent in its camp, compared to 20 percent for Purdue. Notre Dame didn't even get out of single digits. Unlike Iraq, the numbers for the Democrats are pretty similar to the overall statewide results.

So, what comes to mind when you think of Barack Obama, John McCain and Hillary Clinton. Gallup put that question to its “panel” of 1,008 adults during April 25-27 and these “what comes to mind results” came back: the top impression of Obama was about his inexperience, with 15 percent choosing that compared to 12 percent in Nov. 2006. A similar number said “dishonest/don’t trust” about Clinton compared to 6 percent in 2006. And 12 percent said McCain was too old compared to 2 percent in two years ago.

Here were the next three top characteristics for each:

• Obama: Thirteen percent said “fresh face with new ideas/good change,” 9 percent liked him and 9 percent disliked him.
• McCain: Twelve percent said “good man/like him,” 10 percent said “more of the same” and called him another George Bush, and tying at 8 percent were “military background” and “don’t like him.”
• Clinton: Thirteen percent said “past baggage associated with Bill,” 10 percent said “qualified, capable of being president,” and 9 percent disliked her.

Two polls today show Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton in North Carolina, but by smaller margins than earlier.

For the other state that votes next Tuesday, Indiana, one poll out today shows Clinton ahead by 8.

Obama's North Carolina lead is 51 percent to 37 percent, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted April 28. The margin of error is 4 percent. In a survey Rasmussen conducted April 3, Obama had led by 23 points. Clinton’s numbers are helped by her 2-to-1 lead over Obama among white voters making less than $60,000 a year and among white voters in general, where her margin is 15 points. Obama’s favorability rating among likely voters is 71 percent compared to 62 percent for Clinton. Thirty-two percent say Clinton should drop out and 20 percent say the same about Obama. Both candidates are close when voters are asked who would have the best chance against John McCain in November – 89 percent say Obama while 84 percent say Clinton.

A SurveyUSA poll conducted April 26-28 shows the race becoming closer than Rasmussen's results showed, with Obama ahead by 49 percent to 44 percent, having what was once a 10 point advantage. There are 3 percent undecided and a 3.7 percent margin of error. Clinton now has her largest lead among white voters in this poll, beating Obama by 2-to-1. They make up 61 percent of the sample. Obama leads among black voters (33 percent of the sample) by 87 percent to 11 percent.

A Public Policy Polling survey released yesterday had Obama’s one-time 25 point margin down to 12. American Research Group had Obama’s lead at 10 which it said was unchanged from its previous poll.

Hillary Clinton is leading Barack Obama 50 percent to 42 percent in Indiana in a survey conducted April 26-27 by Public Policy Polling. The margin of error is 2.5 percent. Clinton leads 54 percent to 38 percent among white voters, 54 percent to 39 percent among women voters and 55 percent to 36 percent among voters over 65. Obama leads among black voters 73 percent to 21 percent and among voters under 29 by 50 percent to 40 percent.

Gallup has trolled through its April data and further confirmed the “education gap” among white voters favoring either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. Voters with less than a college degree go for Clinton by 56 percent to 35 percent while those with a college degree or higher favor Obama 56 percent to 37 percent.

These overall figures break down different ways among different age groups.

• The 18-to-34 group:White voters with less than a college degree favor Obama 54 percent to 40 percent. Those with a college degree or higher favor Obama 63 percent to 32 percent.
• The 35-to-54 group: Overall, Clinton leads 59 percent to 32 percent among those without a college degree while Obama leads 58 percent to 35 percent among more educated voters. Drilling down further, Clinton leads 56 to 34 percent among white voters who have less than a college degree, but are employed, and 68 percent to 28 percent among those who are unemployed. Obama’s margin over Clinton among those with a college degree or higher, plus a job, is 57 percent to 35 percent, and 65 percent to 31 percent for those without a job.
• Voters over 55: Clinton’s margin grows to 60 percent to 29 percent among those with less than a college degree. Obama leads those with a college degree by 50 percent to 43 percent.

A long-term tracking of party identification by age group shows a significant shift away from the GOP among the "late Boomer/Gen-X" age group and a tilt towards the Democratic party by the youngest voters.

According to the Pew Research Center study released today, voters aged 18-29 are considerably more likely (58 percent to 33 percent) to align themselves with the Democratic Party than the Republican Party. Just four years ago, the margin for Democrats among this group was 51 to 40 percent. Among Generation Y voters (born in 1977 or after), the gap also widened: in 2004, they preferred Democrats 52 to 39 percent; in 2008, 57 to 33 percent.

This obvious trend toward the Democratic Party is evident across other age groups, as well, and has been particularly noticeable with the "late Boomer/Gen-X" age group (1956-76). Statistics for voters born in that 20-year period show a 15 percentage point shift since 2004 — four years ago, the Republican Party had a 3 percentage point edge in that age group; today's results show a 12 percentage point gap in favor of the Democratic Party.

The survey responses from 2004 were based on polls conducted October 2003 through November 2004, and responses for 2008 were based on polls conducted October 2007 through March 2008.

According to a Public Policy Polling release today, Hillary Rodham Clinton is gaining ground against Barack Obama's still considerable lead in North Carolina. Obama's 51 percent to 39 percent lead over Clinton is well outside the ±2.9 percentage point margin of error, but it is smaller than in previous polls conducted by PPP in North Carolina about the Democratic primary. The earlier PPP polls showed Obama holding as much as a 25-point lead over Clinton.

Obama leads among both men and women, and has an unsurprisingly strong lead among African-Americans. Although he leads Clinton across all age groups, he has lower support from the over-30 crowd — he's got 57 percent support for 18-29 year olds; 50 percent for 30-45 year olds; and 51 percent for both the 46-65 and over-65 groups. Clinton, on the other hand, snags a consistent 38 to 40 percent from each age group.

The poll was taken from 1,121 likely Democratic voters surveyed on April 26 and 27.

After a tough April for Barack Obama, the number of Republicans who believe he would be a formidable candidate against John McCain has dropped from 54 percent this month to 37 percent in a poll conducted April 25-27 by Rasmussen Reports. That’s just above Hillary Clinton who clocks in at 35 percent, although that number is up from 20 percent. Forty percent of unaffiliated voters say Obama is the most electable Democrat compared to 35 percent for Clinton. The New York Times reported yesterday that Republicans now are seeing Obama as a liability for the Democratic ticket.

Democrats believe Obama is the stronger candidate by 51 percent to 37 percent. Adding up all voters – Democratic, Republican and unaffiliated – 44 percent say Obama is the stronger candidate compared to 36 percent for Clinton.

Rasmussen also says that 34 percent of Democrats believe she should drop out ofthe race, compared to 32 percent earlier this month and 22 percent in late March. Twenty-two percent of Democrats say the same of Obama.

Meanwhile, an AP-Ipsos poll today says that in a general election match-up Clinton leads John McCain 50 percent to 41 percent, while Obama is in a virtual tie with him at 46 percent to 44 percent.

Barack Obama has a 52 percent to 42 percent lead over Hillary Clinton in North Carolina where Democrats go to the polls next week, according to an American Research Group poll conducted April 26-27. The margin of error is 4 points. These results are unchanged from what ARG reported a month ago. Clinton leads among white voters (62 percent of the sample) by 57 percent to 36 percent while Obama has an 83 percent to 13 percent among black voters (33 percent of the sample).

Gallup released an 8-dimension "character comparison" of the three presidential candidates today, showing John McCain lagging among voters when asked about his "clear plan for solving the country's problems." Only 33 percent of adults polled responded positively when asked if McCain had a clear plan, down from 42 percent in March and compared unfavorably with 40 percent for Barack Obama and 47 percent for Hillary Rodham Clinton.

But the rest of the poll was more upbeat for the presumed Republican nominee. It also concludes that McCain's perceived character strengths lie in his persona of a "strong and decisive leader" and being "honest and trustworthy." In fact, he only falls below 50 percent of positive repsonses for "shares your values" and "has a clear plan." Clinton, on the other hand, falls below 50 percent for four different characteristics, including her lowest — "is honest and trustworthy" at 37 percent — but is close behind McCain when viewed as a "strong and decisive leader." Barack Obama rates highly for "understanding the problems Americans face in their daily lives" and "caring about the needs of people like you," but, like McCain, sees his lowest positive score come in for "has a clear plan for solving the country's problems."

The margin of error for the 1,016 interviews, conducted April 18-20, is ±3 percentage points.

Slow day, here at Poll Tracker, so we'll report that the Gallup daily tracking poll, as it did yesterday, at 47 percent each in its survey conducted April 24-26. The margin of error didn't change either - 3 percent.

Barack Obama has slid in the latest Newsweek poll, after absorbing the hard hits of his Pennsylvania loss and the controversies over his “bitter” remark and efforts by his opponents to keep alive the issue of his association with Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

Obama still leads Hillary Clinton 46 percent to 38 percent in the survey conducted April 24-25. The margin of error is 5 percent for Democrats who were polled. A week ago, in a report headlined “Hillary Drops Back,” the Newsweek poll had Obama ahead 54 percent to 35 percent. On the question of who was more electable, Obama had a 55 percent to 33 percent lead a week ago, but now his edge over Clinton is 46 percent to 38 percent.

Newsweek says that now 4 in 10 of registered voters, including Republicans and independents, now have an unfavorable opinion of him and the same number say they would not vote for him in the general election. About the same number of voters say their opinion is less favorable because of the Wright controversy and the “bitter” remark. That being said, both Obama and Clinton hold narrow leads over John McCain, although both are within the poll’s margin of error. Fifty-three percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Obama, compared to 51 percent for McCain and 47 percent for Clinton. The margin of error for all voters is 3 percent.

Hillary Clinton and Brack Obama are tied at 47 percent each in the Gallup daily tracking poll's April 23-25 survey. The margin of error is 3 percent. This is the first of Gallup's dailies in which all of the interviews were conducted after Clinton's Pennsylvania victory.

Voters generally trust Democrats more than Republicans on key issues but when it comes down to the specific of actual candidates, they trust John McCain more than Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted April 21-24. The margin of error for these results is 3.5 percent.

Here is Rasmussen’s issue-by-issue rundown:

• Economy: Voters trust the Democrats to better handle this issue by a 48 percent to 40 percent margin. But they trust McCain over Clinton by 47 percent to 42 percent and over Obama by 46 percent to 39 percent.

• Iraq: Voters are closely divided – 45 percent say the trust the Democrats against 43 percent who favor the Republicans. McCain is trusted over Clinton by 50 percent to 40 percent and over Obama by 48 percent to 39 percent.

Here are the latest additions to our round-up of state by state general-election match-ups.

And by the way, if you aren't familiar with it already, there's a great site, electoral-vote.com, that has a map that gives an excellent graphical view of how the states are sorting out.

• Massachusetts: No surprise here. Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are way ahead of John McCain, with Clinton leading 55 percent to 36 percent and Obama by 51 percent to 39 percent, in a Rasmussen Reports poll released April 25. Among men voters, the match-ups are close, but among women the Democrats have wide leads. Obama’s favorability rating is 59 percent, Clinton’s is 58 percent, and McCain’s is 57 percent. Forty-nine percent say the economy is the top issue compared to 24 percent who cite Iraq. Massachusetts voters do not give much of a boost to their onetime favorite son Mitt Romney as a potential McCain running mate. Forty three percent don’t think McCain should choose Romney while 34 percent say they do. In a SurveyUSA poll conducted April 11-13 linton runs ahead of McCain 56 percent to 41 percent, while Obama is in a statistical dead heat with McCain, leading him 48 percent to 46 percent. The margin of error is 4.2 percent. On Iraq, named as the top issue by 18 percent, both Democrats lead McCain by more than 40 points.

• Indiana: McCain leads Obama 51 percent to 43 percent and Clinton by 52 percent to 41 percent, according to a Research 2000 poll conducted. April 21-24. An Indianapolis Star-WTHR poll conducted April 20-23 had Obama ahead of McCain 49 percent to 41 percent and Clinton even with him at 46 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. The Boston Globe notes today that Indiana Democrats have not delivered their state in a general election since 1964.

The Gallup daily tracking poll now has Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in a statistical tie, with Obama at 48 percent and Clinton at 47 percent. The survey was conducted April 22-24 and has a margin of error of 3 percent. Obama had recently been ahead by as much as 10 points and Gallup suggests that Clinton’s uptick is due to the impact of her Pennsylvania primary victory. Just to note: a number of pre-Pennsylvania polls by major organizations had Obama with significant leads, and at times, the Gallup daily tracking poll has been at variance with them and even with the poll Gallup conducts for USA Today.

Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are in a statistical dead heat in Indiana, one of two states that hold the next primaries on May 6, according to a Research 2000 poll conducted April 21-24. In North Carolina, the other May 6 state, polls have consistently shown Obama with a lead. The Indiana poll has Obama at 48 percent and Clinton at 47 percent with 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points.

A second poll, this one for the Indianapolis Star-WTHR-TV, also showed the race to be a toss-up with Obama leading 41 percent to 38 percent, within the survey’s 4.2 percent margin of error. The poll was conducted April 20-23. But this poll showed a much higher number of undecided voters – 21 percent.

And a third - American Research Group - has Clinton ahead of Obama 50 percent to 45 percent with 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent and the poll was conducted April 23-24.

It doesn’t come as much of a surprise for those who have followed the campaign results and polls, but a survey conducted between March 11 and April 1 for the Harvard University Institute of Politics found that 18-to-24 year-olds who plan to vote in November favor Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton by 70 percent to 30 percent. Last October, Obama’s margin over Clinton was only 38 percent to 33 percent with the rest divided among other Democrats who were then still in the field. Matched against John McCain, Obama leads 53 percent to 32 percent, but Clinton leads McCain by 44 percent to 39 percent.

While 80 percent said they definitely or probably would vote in November, 60 percent of young voters said they did not consider themselves to be politically active against 40 percent who were. Fifty-eight percent said the country was on the wrong track, 32 percent were unsure and 10 percent said the nation was generally headed in the right direction.

While the days leading up to the Pennsylvania primary may have been high drama for the candidates, their supporters and the press, Pew Research says that the interest of Americans in what they see as “an excessively negative presidential campaign” declined during that period. Pew’s survey showed that only 29 percent of Americans said they paid very close attention to campaign news last week, the lowest figure since last December. That compares to 43 percent who followed the news closely during the weekend before the Texas and Ohio primaries. The number of Democrats following the campaign news closely last week was 38 percent compared to more than half of them in February.

For the April 18-21 period, Americans saw the campaign as too negative by a 50 percent to 44 percent margin. That number was pretty consistent across Democrats, Republicans and independents. In February, only 28 percent of Americans and 19 percent of Democrats called the race too negative.

Fifty-nine percent of voters described the campaign as interesting compared to 35 percent who called it dull, the latter number being up from 25 percent in February.

So, at the moment the official Pennsylvania count stands at 54.6 percent for Hillary Clinton and 45.4 percent for Barack Obama, a 9.2 point victory for Clinton. Here's what the pollsters predicted in the final round of their surveys:

• American Research Group: Clinton 56, Obama 40
• Zogby: Clinton 51, Obama 41
• Suffolk University: Clinton 52, Obama 42
• InsiderAdvantage: Clinton 49, Obama 42
• Strategic Vision: Clinton 48, Obama 41
• Quinnipiac University: Clinton 51, Obama 44
• SurveyUSA: Clinton 50, Obama 44
• Rasmussen Reports: Clinton 49, Obama 44
• McClatchy/MSNBC: Clinton 48, Obama 43
• Public Policy Polling: Clinton 49, Obama 46

Rasmussen Reports say both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have gained on John McCain in Minnesota, a state the Democrats have won in every presidential election since 1976. Obama leads McCain by 52 percent to 38 percent while Clinton is ahead 47 percent to 42 percent. Last month, Obama had only a 4 point lead and Clinton and McCain were running even. Obama has a favorability rating of 60 percent, McCain is at 56 percent and Clinton at 51 percent.

The number of Americans saying the U.S. made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq reached a new high in a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted April 18-20, with 63 percent taking that view. That surpassed the 61 percent who said in May, 1971 that the Vietnam War was a mistake.

John McCain leads both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in a general election match-up in Nevada, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted April 21. McCain is ahead of Obama 48 percent to 43 percent and Clinton by 49 percent to 38 percent. The margin of error is 4 percent. Last month, Obama led McCain by four and the race with Clinton was a dead heat.

Barack Obama maintained a statistically significant lead in the Gallup daily tracking poll for the third straight day, running ahead of her by 50 percent to 42 percent based on a survey conducted April 18-22. the margin of error is 3 points. Obama's margin yesterday was 10 points. However, this poll did not capture the effect, if any, of Clinton's Tuesday night victory in Pennsylvania.

Barack Obama is leading Hillary Clinton by 50 percent to 41 percent in the next big primary state of North Carolina, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted April 19-21. The margin of error is 3.7 percent and the number of undecided is 5 percent. This is a smaller lead than some other North Carolina polls have shown for Obama, but SurveyUSA says that margin has been “steady-steady.” Clinton’s only significant edge over Obama in any gender or age group is among voters over 65. Clinton leads 56 percent to 33 percent among white voters (64 percent of the sample) while Obama leads among black voters (30 percent of the sample) by 83 percent to 10 percent.

Here are some of the findings of the exit polls in Pennsylvania.

From CNN:

• One out of 7 primary voters were not registered as a Democrat at the beginning of the year and 60 percent of them went for Obama.
• Fifty-eight percent of voters who made up their minds in the last week voted for Clinton.
• Ninety-two percent of black voters chose Obama. Several pollsters put the black vote in Pennsylvania at about 15 percent of the total.
• Seniors backed Clinton 60 percent to 39 percent, while Obama led in the 18-to-29 age group 62 percent to 38 percent.
• Eleven percent of Pennsylvania Democrats said they would vote for John McCain over Clinton if she became the nominee and another 6 percent said they'd stay home. Fifteen percent would vote for McCain over Obama and 10 percent said they woduldn't vote at all if Obama was the standardbearer.

From CBS News:

• Sixty-four percent of Hillary Clinton supporters said they would not be satisfied with Obama as the nominee, and 54 percent of Barack Obama supporters. But overall, 70 percent of Pennsylvania Democrats would be satisfied with Clinton as nominee and 64 percent with Obama.
• Fifty-four percent said the economy is the top issue of the campaign.
• Clinton won 55 percent of men voters, and in specific, 64 percent of blue collar white men.

From the New York Times:

• Ninety percent of voters said the U.S. was in a recession.
• Nearly half of voters said they were looking for a candidate who would bring change.
• About a quarter of voters said experience was the most important quality for a candidate.
• A majority of voters said campaign ads were very or somewhat important in making their choice. About 40 percent said that both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama had engaged in unfair attacks.
• Three-quarters said they made their decision a week ago.

From ABC News:

• Eight out of 10 voters made up their minds at least a week ago, and 6 in 10 did so a month ago, which would be a wake-up call to pollsters and pundits who said the negative tone of the race was resulting in a significant undecided pool.
• Two thirds of voters say Clinton attacked Obama unfairly during the campaign, while about half said the same of Obama’s treatment of Clinton.
• More than half of voters in the early exit polls expect Obama to be the nominee

From Fox News:

• Fifty-eight percent of those who live in union households voted for Clinton versus 42 percent for Obama.
• Voters making less than $50,000 a year voted 55 percent to 45 percent for Clinton.
• Fifty-four percent of college grads backed Obama compared to 46 percent for Clinton.
• Obama is out-polling Clinton among urban voters 69 percent to 31 percent.
• Gun owners favored Clinton by 58 percent to 42 percent.
• Voters who attend religious services every week backed Clinton 59 percent to 41 percent.

Despite efforts by his foes to depict him as an elitist because of his remarks about "bitter" small town, blue collar voters, Barack Obama does not fare much differently than Hillary Clinton or John McCain when voters are asked if any of the candidates look down on the average American, according to a Gallup survey conducted April 18-20. Voters say McCain respects and doesn't look down on people by a 71 percent to 22 percent margin, Obama by a 69 percent to 26 percent margin, and Clinton by a 63 percent to 32 percent margin. The results are about the same when "working class American" is substituted for "average" American.

A new USA Today/Gallup poll conducted April 18-20 looks like a mirror image of recent polls by the Washington Post/ABC News and Newsweek: a widening lead for Barack Obama and rising negatives for Hillary Clinton. It also matches the results of today's Gallup daily tracking poll. Obama leads Clinton by 50 percent to 40 percent, with a 3 point margin of error. About half of Democrats say the race has become too negative, and 43 percent blame Clinton, 3 percent blame Obama and 53 percent blame both equally. Democrats are divided on whether the long sometimes bitter campaign is hurting the party. Gallup says on its website that the split is 48 percent to 48 percent. Obama supporters believe by a 58 percent to 40 percent margin that the campaign is hurting the party now, while Clinton supporters reject that view 59 percent to 36 percent. Fifty-nine percent of Obama supporters say the campaign has become too negative, while 59 percent of Clinton backers disagree.

In general election-matchups, USA Today/Gallup has Obama ahead of McCain 47 percent to 44 percent and Clinton in the lead 50 percent to 44 percent.

Here's our latest round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups, with a new survey in New York providing more evidence of the negative sentiment building up against Hillary Clinton in her increasingly contentious contest with Barack Obama.

New York: Hillary Clinton leads John McCain in her homestate by a modest 46 to 42 percent while Barack Obama has a 45 percent to 40 percent lead, according to a Siena College poll conducted April 13-16. the margin of error is 3.9 percent. When Siena conducted its last poll in February, each Democrat led McCain by 7 points. But perhaps the big headline is that Clinton now has the highest unfavorable rating that she ever recorded in this poll. Forty eight percent of New Yorkers see her positively against 46 percent who do not. Obama’s favorability rating is 54 percent to 35 percent and McCain;s is 54 percent to 35 percent. Siena’s Stephen Greenberg says, “With a little more than six months until Election Day, New York is looking more ‘purple’ than ‘blue’ these days, since neither Clinton or Obama gets 50 percent of the vote against McCain, and both Democrats have small and shrinking leads.”

SurveyUSA said in an April 11-13 New York poll that Clinton leads McCain 59 percent to 35 percent in her home state, while Obama leads 52 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. A Marist Poll conducted April 3-4 said if the election were held today McCain would run “surprisingly close” in New York to either Democrat. Clinton polls 48 percent to 46 percent against McCain, while McCain leads Obama 48 percent to 46 percent.

InsiderAdvantage's final Pennsylvania poll released this morning falls within the range of the seven polls that came out yesterday, putting Hillary Clinton ahead of Barack Obama by 49 percent to 42 percent, with 9 percent undecided. The poll was conducted last night and has a 3.6 percent margin of error. Monday's polls had two putting Clinton ahead by 10, two by 7, one by 6, one by 5 and one by a statistically insignificant 3. The biggest outlier so far of all the polls since the weekend is American Research Group whose April 17-19 survey had Clinton ahead by 13.

Also today:

• A final Zogby poll conducted April 20-21 has Clinton up by 51 percent to 41 percent with 6 percent "not sure." The margin of error is 3.8 percent.

• American Research Group now posts an even bigger lead for Clinton than it did in its previous poll. Its April 20-21 survey has her ahead 56 percent to 40 percent, with a 4 point margin of error. It had given her a 13 point lead on Monday.

The question is whether a Clinton victory will be by enough of a margin to revive her campaign, especially after a CQ Politics district-by-district analysis last week showed she is not likely to walk away from Pennsylvania with many more delegates than Obama.

Check out these previews of tonight's vote:

• What to Look for in Pennsylvania Primary Los Angeles Times
• Eight Questions About the Pennsylvania Primary Washington Post

Seven Pennsylvania polls (are there enough voters to go around?) since the ones we reported yesterday:

• Suffolk University: Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 52 percent to 42 percent, with 4 percent undecided, in a poll conducted April 19-20. The margin of error is 4 percent. A fifth of Democrats said they'd vote for John McCain if their choice for Democratic nominee does not win and 4 percent said they'd vote for Ralph Nader.
• InsiderAdvantage: Clinton leads 49 percent to 39 percent with 12 percent undecided in this poll conducted April 20. The margin of error is 3.4 percent. InsiderAdvantage's Matt Towery attributes the large undecided number to "the barrage of negative TV commercials and attack statements...When a campaign becomes a blow-for-blow blood-fest played out in news media, that usually drives up the number of undecided voters."
• Strategic Vision: A survey conducted April 18-20 showed Clinton leading Obama 48 percent to 41 percent with 11 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points. As noted yesterday, the undecideds in most of the past primaries have broken for Clinton. In a look-ahead to the general election, Strategic Vision said John McCain was ahead of Clinton 46 percent to 42 percent and Obama by 48 percent to 40 percent.
• Quinnipiac University: This poll also has Clinton ahead by 7 points, 51 percent to 44 percent in a survey conducted April 18-20. The margin of error is 3.1 points. Quinnipiac's Clay Richards said, "Pennsylvania voters apparently made up their minds a couple of weeks ago and nothing has happened since to change them."
• SurveyUSA: A poll conducted April 18-20 has Clinton at 50 percent to 44 percent over Obama with a 3.8 percent margin of error.
• Rasmussen Reports: Clinton leads Obama 49 percent to 44 percent in a survey conducted April 20. Margin of error is 4 points. Seven percent are undecided.This is a state where Clinton's favorability is positive, at 71 percent of likely primary voters compared to 69 percent for Obama. But less than half of each candidates' supporters have a favorable view of their rival.
• Public Policy Polling: Clinton is in a tight race with Obama at 49 percent to 46 percent with a 2 percent margin of error in a survey conducted April 19-20.

The weekend polls broke down this way:

• McClatchy/MSNBC Pittsburgh Post Gazette: Clinton 48 percent, Obama 43 perced, 8 percent undecided and a 4 point margin of error. Conducted April 17-18.
• American Research Group: Clinton 54 percent, Obama 41 percent and a 4 point margin of error. Conducted April 17-19.
• Zogby: Clinton 46 percent. Obama 43 percent, and a 4.1 percent margin of error. Conducted April 18-19.

In the SurveyUSA poll conducted for Philadelphia's NBC 10, Clinton's 6 point lead compared to 14 points last week. The station concluded: "Clinton will carry the symbolically important popular vote, but not by enough to gain material advantage in pledged delegates." That squares with a CQ Politics analysis of last week that whatever way the popular vote goes, the delegate split between Clinton and Obama is likely to be close.

Barack Obama continues to hold a big lead in North Carolina where primary voters go to the polls on May 6, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted April 19-20. Obama is running ahead of Clinton 57 percent to 32 percent in the battle for the state’s 134 delegates, the second biggest remaining haul after Pennsylvania.

The number of Americans pointed to the economy as the important issue of the campaign year has soared from 46 percent last November to 67 percent, according to an AP-Yahoo poll conducted April 2-14.

The poll says about two-thirds of those making under $100,000 attach “extreme importance” to the economy as do nearly 6 in 10 earning more. However, none of the remaining presidential contenders can claim a lion’s share of those voters, although those who say they are extremely concerned about the economy lean towards the two Democrats. Both groups divide evenly between McCain and each Democrat in head-to-head match-ups. Democrats divide between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama about the same whether or not they name the economic situation as extremely important to them.

AP Yahoo concludes: “The economy is the top problem, but so far it's not driving votes.”

Three polls are out today on the Pennsylvania race: one giving Hillary Clinton a 13 point lead, one a 5 point lead and the third a statistically insignificant 3 point edge.

Clinton has a 48 percent to 43 percent lead over Barack Obama with 8 percent undecided, in a McClatchy/MSNBC/Pittsburgh Post Gazette poll conducted April 17-18. The margin of error is 4 percent. The Gazette said, “The findings suggested that after six weeks of campaigning against a significantly better funded candidate, Mrs. Clinton retains the opportunity for a tactical victory.” A piece in the Boston Globe also underlined the importance of undecided voters, noting that in three Pennsylvania polls conducted last week, this group made up 9 percent to 13 percent, and the Globe observed: “Through 27 contests where exit polling on late deciders is available, Clinton has won those voters in 20.” However, among those voters who have made a choice, 92 percent of both Obama and Clinton supporters said they would stick to it.

NBC Political Director Check Todd also saw signs in the poll that undecideds could break for Clinton and said, "While the poll shows Clinton with a narrow lead (and arguably a narrowing lead), the clues inside the numbers indicate this is her race to lose and that her lead could expand."

In the other two polls:

• American Research Group says its April 17-19 survey shows Clinton ahead 54 percent to 41 percent with a 4 point margin of error.
• Zogby reports its April 18-19 survey has Clinton ahead 46 percent to 43 percent, which is within its 4.1 percent margin of error.

In the McClatchy poll, Clinton’s beer-and-a-shot moment did not seem to do her much good. This was the first time we saw a poll that broke out beer drinkers as a demographic, but the survey says that Clinton and Obama were in a 44 percent each tie among the 28 percent of voters who identified themselves as beer drinkers. Her story about her gun-toting Pennsylvania childhood may have done her more good: among the 38 percent in the poll who said they were gun owners, Clinton led 53 percent to 28 percent. Clinton also led 56 percent to 31 percent among the 16 percent of voters who said they were hunters and 54 percent to 33 percent among the 24 percent of respondents who said they were bowlers. Is this the class divide that a Boston Globe article discusses today?

A Newsweek poll shows Barack Obama running away with the Democratic contest, building a 54 percent to 35 percent lead over Hillary Clinton, compared to its last poll in early March that had the two in a dead heat. The poll was conducted April 16-17, which means it probably did not reflect any great impact due to the last debate, and had a 3 point margin of error. It reflect the same trend as a Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted April 10-13 which had Obama moving ahead by 10 points, but stands in contrast to the sometimes mysterious Gallup daily tracking poll which today has Clinton in a statistical tie with Obama, with her ahead 46 percent to 45 percent. That poll, conducted April 16-18, has a margin of error of 3 percent.

Like the Post/ABC News poll and a slew of state polls, Clinton is suffering more and more from a perception among voters that see her as dishonest and untrustworthy. Voters hold that view by 51 percent to 41 percent, while 61 percent say both Obama and McCain are honest and trustworthy. Newsweek says, “The results suggest that Clinton was damaged more by being caught in a tall tale about landing in Bosnia under sniper fire than Obama has been by his recent controversies, including the firestorm of criticism provoked by the Illinois senator's remarks that blue-collar voters "cling" to religion, guns and other issues because of their bitterness.” But at the same time, as the contentious Democratic campaign goes on, Obama;s favorability rating has dropped 4 points to 57 percent and his unfavorable rating has climbed 8 points to 36 percent, while Clinton’s favorability rating has dropped 7 points to 49 percent and her unfavorable rating rose 7 poinrts to 47 percent since the last poll.

The poll showed one potential Achilles Heel for John McCain. Thirty-six percent of voters believe that his age – 71 – will hurt his chances of winning the presidency.

Our latest additions to our round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups confirm some trends we've noted before that our reflected not only in these polls but national ones: Hillary Clinton is on a downhill slide in her favorability ratings, and Iraq appears to be a vulnerability for John McCain in a race against either Clinton or Barack Obama, as voters who rate that as the top issue favor eith Democrat by signficant margins. (There are a couple of good pieces today about McCain on al-Qaeda and Iraq in the New York Times and Salon).

• Colorado: McCain and Obama are in a statistical dead heat with Obama leading 46 percent to 43 percent while McCain leads Clinton 50 percent to 36 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted April 16. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. For those of you who follow the Poll Tracker links to go to the source, Rasmussen has decided to present these results via video, and there's something squirrely about the address, so we didn't include it). Rasmussen says one reason for the difference is that Obama leads McCain by 44 percent to 34 percent among unaffiliated voters while McCain beats Clinton 49 percent to 28 percent, an outcome similar to many other state polls. McCain bests Clinton among both men and women voters while holding a slimmer lead among men over Obama and trailing him among women. Obama’s favorability rating has slipped from 60 percent in February and 55 percent a month ago to 53 percent, a trend reflected also in Newsweek’s new national poll. McCain’s favorability rating is 57 percent and Clinton is way behind at 40 percent.

• Washington state: Obama leads McCain 53 percent to 40 percent while Clinton is ahead of McCain by 48 percent to 45 percent, in a Survey USA poll conducted April 14-16. The margin of error is 4 percent. Both Obama and Clinton have big leads over McCain among women voters, but it’s a split decision among men: Obama leads McCain by 7 points while Clinton trails him by the same amount. The biggest age gap is among voters under 34, who favor Obama by 42 points and Clinton by 14. Obama has an 11 point lead here over McCain among white voters. He runs ahead of McCain 55 percent to 34 percent among independents while McCain runs about even in this group with Clinton. Thirty-six percent of voters name the economy as the top issue and while Obama has a 16 point lead over McCain among them, McCain runs even with Clinton. Of the 19 percent of voters who name Iraq, both Democrats have about a 2-to-1 lead over McCain. An April 7 poll by SurveyUSA had Obama ahead of McCain by 51 percent to 44 percent while McCain was in a virtual 46 percent to 45 percent tie with Clinton

Monday's 11 percent lead was the largest it has been in the campaign to date.

Gallup suggests that Obama's drop to a 47 to 44 percent lead over Clinton may be attributed to the Wednesday night debate in Philadelphia: "The initial indications are that Obama may have been hurt by the debate, which was noted for its negative tone and focus on the candidates' recent 'gaffes...'"

That is at odds with other polls released today, that showed Clinton slipping after the debate. And, Gallup's findings on a potential matchups with John McCain are at odds with today's AP/Yahoo poll. That one showed McCain with a non-statistically-significant edge over Obama and Clinton. The Gallup poll had Clinton leading McCain, 46 to 44 percent, while Obama had a smaller lead, 45 to 44 percent, also within the margin of error.

The margin of error was plus or minus 2 percent.