Poll Tracker

• California: Both Democrats have comfortable leads over McCain. Clinton leads him 56 percent to 38 percent and Obama bests him 54 percent to 40 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain gets about a quarter of black and Hispanic voters in a race against Clinton. Against Obama, he gets a third of Hispanic voters but only 13 percent of black voters. Like all other states, Californians say the economy is the top issue (37 percent). There is hardly a demographic or issue category in which McCain leads, although he is the runaway winner as usual among those who cite terrorism as the top issue here (10 percent).

• New York: In her home state, Clinton leads McCain 54 percent to 41 percent while Obama is ahead 52 percent to 44 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. McCain lags across all age groups, but especially among voters under 34. He matches up with Clinton among white voters (67 percent of the sample) within the margin of error but beats Obama 54 percent to 41 percent. Against Clinton, McCain draws about one-fifth of the Hispanic and black vote (27 percent combined) but against Obama he gets a little more than a third of the Hispanic vote while registering only 9 percent support among black voters. Forty-three percent of New Yorkers cite the economy as the top issue and Clinton and Obama lead among them by 12 and 10 points respectively. Health care and Iraq are each cited as most important by 12 percent of voters and Clinton and Obama have leads of more than 20 points among them. For the 9 percent that cited terrorism as the top issue, McCain leads Clinton 56 percent to 44 percent and Obama by 68 to 31 percent, (are you beginning to see a trend here?)

• Virginia: There’s been much commentary about Virginia becoming a “purple” state, showing signs of a transition from Republican dominance of past years to more success for Democrats. And this poll certainly shows Virginia up-for-grabs with Clinton tied with McCain at 47 percent each and Obama leading 48 percent to 47 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. Obama and Clinton both best McCain in the 18-to-34 age group by large margins, but as we’ll see in other polls, McCain turns the tables in the 35-to-49 age group. McCain beats Clinton 55 percent to 41 percent among white voters (73 percent of the sample) and Obama by 58 percent to 36 percent. Clinton and Obama both lead McCain by almost 20 points among the 39 percent of voters who say they are moderates (31 percent say they are conservative and 16 percent identify themselves as liberals). Forty-two percent of Virginians say the economy is the top issue and Clinton and Obama lead by 13 percent and 9 percent respectively. Among the 14 percent who cite Iraq, Clinton and Obama lead by more than 3-to-1. Although there has been much controversy over immigration, especially in northern Virginia, only 8 percent called it the top issue and McCain’s leads among them were in the 8-to-1 range. Eleven percent cited terrorism and while McCain led Clinton 91 percent to 9 percent, Obama did better with McCain’s margin over him at 70 percent to 25 percent.

• Massachusetts: Hillary Clinton leads McCain 55 percent to 42 percent, while McCain ties Obama at 47 percent each. The poll was conducted March 14-16 and has a 4.5 percent margin of error. Clinton has a 2-to-1 lead over McCain among women voters. McCain leads Obama by a modest 49 percent to 44 percent among white voters, but what is interesting is that while Obama’s lead over McCain among black voters is a substantial 69 percent to 29 percent, that is generally a better showing among black voters than Clinton has registered in polls and primaries. Forty-seven percent of voters named the economy as the top issue and both Clinton and Obama have modest leads over McCain among those voters. Of the 17 percent who cared most about Iraq, Clinton and Obama had large leads over McCain. As in nearly every other state poll, McCain far outdistances either Democrat on the issue of dealing with terrorism, but in Massachusetts, only 7 percent name that as the top issue.

• Oregon: While McCain is behind both Democrats, he is competitive here. Clinton leads him 50 percent to 44 percent, and Obama is ahead 50 percent to 41 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. The only age group where there is a gaping difference between McCain and the Democrats is the 18-to-34 voters where the leads of Clinton and Obama are in double-digits. Clinton runs evenly with McCain among white voters (87 percent of the sample), but Obama does better in this state, leading McCain 50 percent to 42 percent. Thirty-six percent say the economy is the top issue and these voters are pretty much split between McCain and either Democrat. The 15 percent of voters who cite Iraq are heavily in favor of the Democrats over McCain, although the 9 percent most concerned with terrorism favor McCain by the usual overwhelming margins.

• Washington State: Like Oregon, there is the makings of a race. Clinton leads McCain 50 percent to 45 percent, while Obama is ahead 51 percent to 42 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. The biggest age gap is between Obama and McCain among voters 18-to-34 (26 percent of the sample) where Obama leads 64 percent to 30 percent. This is also a state where Obama leads McCain among white voters (84 percent of the sample) by 8 points, doing better than Clinton. Forty-two percent cite the economy as the top issue and they break solidly for Obama and Clinton. The same is true for the 13 percent who care most about Iraq, although the Clinton-Obama advantages over McCain are even larger here. Eight percent cite terrorism as the top issue and McCain leads Clinton by a whopping 96 percent to 2 percent (!) and Obama by 91 percent to 5 percent.

• Minnesota: This shapes up as a tight race no matter which Democrat faces McCain. Clinton leads him 49 percent to 46 percent and McCain edges Obama 47 percent to 46 percent, but the margin of error is 4.3 percent. Obama and Clinton have double-digit leads over McCain among voters under 34, but McCain reverses that in the 35-to-49 age group. Both Democrats run fairly evenly with McCain among white voters, and among black voters, McCain runs evenly with Clinton and trails Obama by about 3-to-1. The top issue among Minnesotans is the economy (cited by 46 percent) and McCain is roughly even with both Democrats. Health care is second at 13 percent and both Clinton and Obama enjoy big leads among these voters as they do with the 12 percent who care most about Iraq. McCain holds his usual large lead here among the 7 percent of voters most worried about terrorism.

• Wisconsin: This is an up-for-grabs state right now with Clinton matched with McCain at 47 percent to 46 percent and Obama leading by 48 percent to 44 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. The biggest age gaps in Wisconsin are Obama’s 23 point lead over McCain among voters 18-to-34 and McCain’s 19 point lead over Obama among voters over 65. White voters make up 90 percent of the sample and the candidates are all basically tied. Thirty-nine percent of voters say the economy is the top issue and the race is pretty even among them. Health care is named by 13 percent and either Democrat trounces McCain on this issue. The number of those naming terrorism as top issue is slightly higher than in some other states – 11 percent – and McCain’s advantage here is in the 8-to-1 range over either Democrat. Only 8 percent named Iraq and either Democrat beat McCain here by at least 3-to-1.

• Iowa:This is a competitive state with McCain leading Clinton 48 percent to 44 percent and Obama leading McCain 50 percent to 44 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. There’s a big gender gap here, though with a few twists. McCain has a 20 point advantage over Clinton among male voters, while Clinton’s edge among women voters is 9 points, less than the 16 point advantage enjoyed by Obama. As in Minnesota, Clinton and Obama have big leads among voters under 34 but lag McCain in the 35-to-49 age group. McCain has double digit leads among the 48 percent of voters who say they attend religious services regularly and among the 29 percent who say they are Evangelicals. The economy is cited as the top issue by 39 percent and Obama and Clinton have double-digit leads among them. On the terrorism issue, where McCain’s margins have sometimes been anywhere from 8-to-1 to 10-to-1 over either Democrat, Clinton and Obama fare a little better here with the difference being more in the 4-to-1 range. On Iraq, cited by 15 percent, Obama and Clinton lead McCain by a heft margin. Immigration was a big issue for Republicans during the Iowa caucus, but it is cited as a top general election issue by only 10 percent of voters. They favor McCain by big margins.

• Kansas:McCain leads Clinton 55 percent to 36 percent and Obama by 51 percent to 39 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. McCain beats Clinton in all age groups and lags Obama only among voters under 34. He has leads each Democrat by more than 20 points among white voters who made up 87 percent of the sample. More than half of Kansans say they attend religious services regular and McCain leads by 2-to-1 among them. Twenty-seven percent describe themselves as Evangelicals and, there, McCain’s leads are in the 3-to-1 range. Thirty-six percent of voters cite the economy as the top issue and, in this state, McCain leads Clinton 54 percent to 38 percent and Obama by roughly the same amount as the poll’s margin of error. Among the 12 percent of voters most concerned about Iraq, Clinton and Obama lead McCain but by less than in some other states (an 11 point edge for Clinton and 9 points for Obama). Immigration was cited by 11 percent and McCain’s leads are 3-to-1. His lead on fighting terrorism among the 7 percent of voters who placed that first is 76 percent to 22 percent over Clinton and 87 percent to 11 percent over Obama.

• New Mexico:Although both Democrats lead, the state is in play. Both Clinton and Obama are ahead of McCain by 51 percent to 45 percent. Differences among age groups are not that pronounced here. McCain has slight leads over either Democrat among white voters (51 percent of the sample) but Clinton leads among Hispanic voters (37 percent) by more than 2-to-1 and Obama leads McCain by 16 points. The economy is the top issue for 36 percent of voters and each Democrat has a modest lead over McCain among them. Iraq is second at 16 percent and each Democrat has at least a 20 point lead over McCain. For the 7 percent citing terrorism, McCain leads Clinton 97 percent to 3 percent and Obama by 94 percent to 6 percent.

And here are the state polls we reported on earlier:

Arkansas: Clinton trails McCain in a general election match-up in her home state of Arkansas and Obama is not even close, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll() conducted March 18. McCain leads Clinton 50 percent to 43 percent and Obama by 59 percent to 30 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain far outpaces Clinton in favorability ratings, among voters by 66 percent to 50 percent. The economy is regarded as the top issue, with 48 percent of voters citing it, and among them, just 14 percent rate the economy good or excellent.

Georgia: Rasmussen, in a poll conducted March 20, showed McCain leading Obama 53 percent to 40 percent and Clinton 54 percent to 34 percent. Georgia voters also named the economy as the most important issue (45 percent) and only 15 percent said the economy was good or excellent.

Alabama: McCain is running far ahead of either Clinton or Obama, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted March 14-16. McCain beats Clinton 56 percent to 38 percent, while leading Obama 62 percent to 35 percent. Alabama has 9 electoral votes. McCain leads both Democrats in all age groups by double digits. 45 percent of the sample identifies themselves as Evangelicals and McCain leads Clinton there by 67 percent to 29 percent and Obama by 76 percent to 21 percent. The economy is identified as the top issue by 35 percent of voters and while Clinton runs about even with McCain among them, McCain leads Obama 54 percent to 42 percent. Clinton leads McCain by 2-to-1 among the 13 percent of voters who cited Iraq as the top issue but the gap between him and Obama is within the polls 4.2 percent margin of error. Terrorism was cited by 11 percent as the top issue and, as in some other states polls, McCain leads both potential foes by huge margins. The same is true on the issue of immigration, named as the most important by 13 percent of the sample.

Missouri: McCain runs far ahead of Obama in this state with 11 electoral votes, but would be in a tight race with Hillary Clinton, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted March 14-16. His margin over Obama is 53 percent to 39 percent, while he leads Clinton by only 48 percent to 46 percent. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. McCain bests Obama by double-digits in all age groups except 50-to-64 where they are in a statistical tie. He also leads Clinton among all age groups except 50-to-64, but by smaller margins. Clinton leads him in the 50-to-64 group by 56 percent to 38 percent.

The economy is named as the top issue by 41 percent of voters, and Clinton leads McCain among them by 8 points while Obama trails McCain by 9 points. Among the 13 percent of voters who said Iraq was the key issue, the differences between McCain and the Democrats was within the margin of error. However, among the 9 percent who cited terrorism as the top issue, McCain led both Democrats by more than 60 points.

Kentucky: McCain blows away Obama by a 2-to-1 margin (64 percent to 28 percent) and leads Clinton 53 percent to 43 percent in the quest for Kentucky's 8 electoral votes. This SurveyUSA poll was also conducted March 14-16 and the margin of error is 4.3 percent. Here, McCain trails Clinton among voters under 34, but wins in all other age groups by significant margins. He has better than 2-to-1 leads over Obama in every age group.

Thirty-nine percent of voters chose the economy as the top issue and they favored McCain by 54 percent to 43 percent over Clinton, and by the wide margin over Obama that he enjoys in almost every category of this poll. Iraq was cited as the top issue by 14 percent and they heavily favored McCain over either Democrat and, as in Missouri, the same was true on the issue of terrorism, which was named by 11 percent. The actual poll figure on terrorism for McCain vs. Obama was 93 percent to 3 percent.

Ohio: With its 20 electoral votes and importance as a swing state, Ohio looms large in the general election, and a poll out today shows John McCain faring pretty well against the Democrats. Public Policy Polling, in a survey conducted March 15-17, says McCain leads Barack Obama 49 percent to 41 percent and trails Hillary Clinton by just 45 percent to 44 percent, a statistically insignificant figure given the 3.9 percent margin of error.

PPP says this poll is similar to the one it released yesterday on Florida, showing Clinton as having difficulty with black voters and Obama with holding on to the Democratic base. The latter is not a problem for McCain as far as Republicans go.

On issues, 53 percent of Ohio voters say the top concern is the economy and 19 percent cite Iraq, with all others in single digits.

A SurveyUSA poll conducted March 14-16 had Clinton ahead of McCain 50 percent to 44 percent, and McCain ahead of Obama by 50 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. Clinton does better than Obama against McCain among male voters, running about evenly while Obama lags by 10 points.

The economy was cited as the top issue by 48 percent of voters with health care at 13 percent and Iraq at 11 percent. Clinton bests McCain among voters concerned about the economy by 55 percent to 39 percent, while Obama and McCain are in a statistical tie. On Iraq, McCain lags Clinton by 4 points and Obama by 17.

Florida: McCain leads both Clinton and Obama in the key general election state of Florida, according to a new poll, although its findings differ somewhat from a different survey last week. Public Policy Polling has McCain ahead of Clinton 47 percent to 43 percent and leading Obama 50 percent to 39 percent in a survey conducted March 15-16. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll released Friday had McCain over Obama 47 percent to 43 percent and ahead of Clinton 47 percent to 40 percent.

The PPP survey said both Democrats were having trouble among voters who they need to count upon as bases of support. Clinton only has the support of 51 percent of black voters in the poll, with 36 percent undecided and 13 percent favoring McCain. Obama leads McCain among Democrats 60 percent to 25 percent, but the survey suggested that margin is not large enough for him to carry the state.

McCain has double digit leads over Obama and Clinton among male voters. Clinton has an 8 point lead over McCain among women voters, but McCain bests Obama in this group by 9 points.

Forty-seven percent of Floridians say the economy is the top issue, followed by Iraq at 24 percent. All other issues are in single digits.

Connecticut: Obama leads McCain in by 50 percent to 38 percent, while Clinton is ahead by a statistically insignificant 47 percent to 44 percent. The poll was conducted March 11 and has a 4.5 percent margin of error. There is a big gender gap with Clinton and Obama both leading McCain among women voters by 20 points. Among men, McCain has a big lead over Clinton but slightly trails Obama. Obama beat Clinton in the Democratic primary here 51 percent to 47 percent.

New Jersey: Rasmussen Reports says a Feb. 27 survey found that Hillary Clinton would trounce John McCain in her neighbouring state by 50 percent to 39 percent while Barack Obama is behind John McCain 45 percent to 43 percent, with a 4 point margin of error. Rasmussen notes that this is one of the few states (Florida is another) where Clinton outperforms Obama in a general election test against McCain.

Tennessee: McCain leads Obama 50 percent to 36 percent, says a Middle Tennessee State University poll conducted Feb. 11-23.. His margin over Clinton is smaller, 45 percent to 38 percent. The poll says that figure applies to Tennessee adults. When “likely voters” are asked, the margin over Obama is 53 percent to 37 percent. Mike Huckabee also leads Obama or Clinton. The poll says appears to indicate that the margin of error is as high as 8 percent.

North Carolina: McCain leads both Democrats here, by 48 percent to 36 percent over Clinton with 17 percent “not sure,” and 46 percent to 36 percent over Obama with 18 percent not sure, according to the Civitas Institute DecisionMaker poll which was conducted Feb. 19-22. The margin of error is 3.7 percent.

*California: McCain loses to either Democratic, to Clinton by 58 percent to 35 percent and to Obama by 61 percent to 34 percent. The margin of error for Clinton-McCain was 4.4 percent and 4.3 percent for Obama-McCain. (SurveyUSA, Feb. 15-17)

Massachusetts: Clinton beats McCain 52 percent to 43 percent, but Obama’s 48 percent to 46 percent lead is within the poll’s 4.3 percent margin of error. (SurveyUSA, Feb. 15-17)

Minnesota: Obama beats McCain decisively by 55 percent to 40 percent, but Clinton’s 49 percent to 45 percent is within the poll’s 4.3 percent margin of error. (SurveyUSA, Feb. 15-17)

New Mexico: Obama bests McCain 55 percent to 40 percent while Clinton has a smaller 50 percent to 45 percent advantage. Margin of error is 4.4 percent. A Rasmussen Reports survey below has a different take on New Mexico. (SurveyUSA, Feb. 15-17)

Oregon: This is a promising state for McCain. Obama is ahead of him by only 48 percent to 47 percent with 6 percent undecided and a 4.3 percent margin of error. McCain leads Clinton 49 percent to 41 percent with 10 percent undecided. (SurveyUSA, Feb. 15-17)

Wisconsin: Obama and McCain are essentially tied at 44 percent to 43 percent respectively in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Feb.21. McCain would beat Clinton by a decisive 50 percent to 38 percent. Obama leads McCain among independents not affiliated with either party, while Clinton trails McCain on that score. The economy is cited as the top issue of the campaign by 38 percent of voters, national security is second at 14 percent and Iraq is third at 13 percent. McCain does better than either Democrat on national security. The margin of error is 4.5 percent and the poll was conducted Feb.21.