Obama Moves Past Wright Flap, Clinton Has Credibility Problems

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Pew Research has a new survey out today that underscores a lot of findings that have been coming out in other state and national polls this week:

  • The controversy over Barack Obama's ex-pastor has not hurt Obama's campaign.
  • Obama has a much more positive image than Hillary Clinton among voters and voters have doubts about Clinton's honesty and authenticity
  • Americans are as negative about the economy as they were during the big recession of the early 1990s.
  • Dissatisfaction with the direction of the country is at its highest in any Pew survey since 1993.

However, Pew differs from yesterday's NBC News/ Wall Street Journal poll in the state of the Democratic race. The Pew Survey, conducted March 19-22, says Obama is ahead of Clinton 49 percent to 39 percent, with a 5.5 percent margin of error where yesterday's NBC/Journal offering had them deadlocked at 45 percent each. That poll was conducted March 24-25. Gallup's daily tracking poll, conducted March 24-26 has Obama ahead 48 percent to 44 percent with a 3 point margin of error.

Among the poll's findings:

  • Fifty-four percent of voters who heard a lot or little about Rev. Wright's sermons said they were personally offended by them versus 39 percent who were not. Three-quarters of Republicans were in that majority, a little over half of Independents said they were offended, while 50 percent of Democrats said they were not offended versus 43 percent who were.

  • Fifty-one percent of all voters said Obama did an excellent or good job of handling the controversy versus 42 percent who said he did not. About two-thirds of Democrats gave him good marks, about two-thirds of Republicans gave him poor marks, and independents were more evenly split.

  • Obama does far better among independents than Clinton, besting her 42 percent to 37 percent.

  • Obama runs evenly with Clinton among white voters and leads among black voters by 67 percent to 22 percent.

  • Forty-four percent of Democrats see the long primary battle as good for the party versus 41 percent who see it as bad. (See the Boston Globe's piece today, "Lasting Harm Feared In Democrats' Battle.")

  • Thirty-two percent of Clinton backers said they would support McCain if Obama is the nominee. Twenty-eight percent of Obama supporters say the same. Pew notes that many of these defections come from independentys who lean Democratic and that when the question is limited to Democrats, the figures is 25 percent for Clinton supporters and 20 percent for Obama supporters. A Gallup poll yesterday reported similar figures. In a new analysis today, Gallup said "Democrats are at most risk of losing the support of independents, conservative Democrats, and, among Hillary Clinton supporters, less well-educated Democrats if those voters' preferred candidate -- Clinton or Barack Obama -- does not win the party's nomination. Black Democrats appear loyal to the party regardless of who wins the nomination."

  • Obama bests Clinton among Democratic voters by margins of 15 percent to 20 percent on the traits of being "down to earth," "inspiring" and "honest." More Democrats think Clinton is "phony" and "hard to like" than they do of Obama.

  • Asked what made them uneasy about Obama, 29 percent said experience and naivety, 21 percent named the Wright controversy, 13 percent said he was "all talk" and not substantive, while 11 percent were uneasy with his ideology and stand on issues. There were some siliar findings to this in the NBC/Journal poll.

  • The things Democrats most dislike about Clinton are her personality, the idea that she has "too much baggage," and that she is too ambitious.

  • Demonstrating Obama's appeal beyond just Democrats, 70 percent of all voters csay they find him inspiring, 67 percent say he is down-to-earth, and 65 percent say he is honest. Molre than half of Republicans agreed on the first two traits and 46 percent agreed on honesty. The figures for all voters were roughly the same as the figures for independents.

  • Turning to McCain, voters as a whole are pretty much split over whether McCain will follow President Bush's policies or go in a different direction. Republicans and Independents believe he will take the country in a new direction, but Democrats resoundingly don't.

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