Poll Tracker

McCain runs far ahead of Obama in Missouri with its 11 electoral votes, but would be in a tight race with Hillary Clinton, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted March 14-16. His margin over Obama is 53 percent to 39 percent, while he leads Clinton by only 48 percent to 46 percent. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. McCain bests Obama by double-digits in all age groups except 50-to-64 where they are in a statistical tie. He also leads Clinton among all age groups except 50-to-64, but by smaller margins. Clinton leads him in the 50-to-64 group by 56 percent to 38 percent.

The economy is named as the top issue by 41 percent of voters, and Clinton leads McCain among them by 8 points while Obama trails McCain by 9 points. Among the 13 percent of voters who said Iraq was the key issue, the differences between McCain and the Democrats was within the margin of error. However, among the 9 percent who cited terrorism as the top issue, McCain led both Democrats by more than 60 points.

In Kentucky, with its 8 electoral votes, McCain blows away Obama by a 2-to-1 margin (64 percent to 28 percent) and leads Clinton 53 percent to 43 percent. This poll was also conducted March 14-16 and the margin of error is 4.3 percent. Here, McCain trails Clinton among voters under 34, but wins in all other age groups by significant margins. He has better than 2-to-1 leads over Obama in every age group.

Thirty-nine percent of voters chose the economy as the top issue and they favored McCain by 54 percent to 43 percent over Clinton, and by the wide margin over Obama that he enjoys in almost every category of this poll. Iraq was cited as the top issue by 14 percent and they heavily favored McCain over either Democrat and, as in Missouri, the same was true on the issue of terrorism, which was named by 11 percent. The actual poll figure on terrorism for McCain vs. Obama was 93 percent to 3 percent.

...And in other states:

Ohio: With its 20 electoral votes and importance as a swing state, Ohio looms large in the general election, and a poll out today shows John McCain faring pretty well against the Democrats. Public Policy Polling, in a survey conducted March 15-17, says McCain leads Barack Obama 49 percent to 41 percent and trails Hillary Clinton by just 45 percent to 44 percent, a statistically insignificant figure given the 3.9 percent margin of error.

PPP says this poll is similar to the one it released yesterday on Florida, showing Clinton as having difficulty with black voters and Obama with holding on to the Democratic base. The latter is not a problem for McCain as far as Republicans go.

On issues, 53 percent of Ohio voters say the top concern is the economy and 19 percent cite Iraq, with all others in single digits.

A SurveyUSA poll conducted March 14-16 had Clinton ahead of McCain 50 percent to 44 percent, and McCain ahead of Obama by 50 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. Clinton does better than Obama against McCain among male voters, running about evenly while Obama lags by 10 points.

The economy was cited as the top issue by 48 percent of voters with health care at 13 percent and Iraq at 11 percent. Clinton bests McCain among voters concerned about the economy by 55 percent to 39 percent, while Obama and McCain are in a statistical tie. On Iraq, McCain lags Clinton by 4 points and Obama by 17.

Florida: McCain leads both Clinton and Obama in the key general election state of Florida, according to a new poll, although its findings differ somewhat from a different survey last week. Public Policy Polling has McCain ahead of Clinton 47 percent to 43 percent and leading Obama 50 percent to 39 percent in a survey conducted March 15-16. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll released Friday had McCain over Obama 47 percent to 43 percent and ahead of Clinton 47 percent to 40 percent.

The PPP survey said both Democrats were having trouble among voters who they need to count upon as bases of support. Clinton only has the support of 51 percent of black voters in the poll, with 36 percent undecided and 13 percent favoring McCain. Obama leads McCain among Democrats 60 percent to 25 percent, but the survey suggested that margin is not large enough for him to carry the state.

McCain has double digit leads over Obama and Clinton among male voters. Clinton has an 8 point lead over McCain among women voters, but McCain bests Obama in this group by 9 points.

Forty-seven percent of Floridians say the economy is the top issue, followed by Iraq at 24 percent. All other issues are in single digits.

Connecticut: Obama leads McCain in by 50 percent to 38 percent, while Clinton is ahead by a statistically insignificant 47 percent to 44 percent. The poll was conducted March 11 and has a 4.5 percent margin of error. There is a big gender gap with Clinton and Obama both leading McCain among women voters by 20 points. Among men, McCain has a big lead over Clinton but slightly trails Obama. Obama beat Clinton in the Democratic primary here 51 percent to 47 percent.

New Jersey: Rasmussen Reports says a Feb. 27 survey found that Hillary Clinton would trounce John McCain in her neighbouring state by 50 percent to 39 percent while Barack Obama is behind John McCain 45 percent to 43 percent, with a 4 point margin of error. Rasmussen notes that this is one of the few states (Florida is another) where Clinton outperforms Obama in a general election test against McCain.

Florida: A Mason-Dixon poll conducted Feb. 21-24 has McCain leading Obama by 47 percent to 37 percent and Clinton by 49 percent to 40 percent. On the issue of seating the delegates that were stripped from Florida when it moved up its primary in defiance of party rules, 28 percent of Democrats said the state party should hold another election, 24 percent said the delegation should be seated as-is, 15 percent said the state party should accept the penalty because it knowingly violated the rules, and 13 percent favored a delegation evenly split between Obama and Clinton.

Tennessee: McCain leads Obama 50 percent to 36 percent, says a Middle Tennessee State University poll conducted Feb. 11-23.. His margin over Clinton is smaller, 45 percent to 38 percent. The poll says that figure applies to Tennessee adults. When “likely voters” are asked, the margin over Obama is 53 percent to 37 percent. Mike Huckabee also leads Obama or Clinton. The poll says appears to indicate that the margin of error is as high as 8 percent.

North Carolina: McCain leads both Democrats here, by 48 percent to 36 percent over Clinton with 17 percent “not sure,” and 46 percent to 36 percent over Obama with 18 percent not sure, according to the Civitas Institute DecisionMaker poll which was conducted Feb. 19-22. The margin of error is 3.7 percent.

Alabama: McCain beats Clinton 57 percent to 37 percent and Obama by 58 percent to 34 percent. Margin of error is 4.2 percent. (SurveyUSA, Feb. 15-17)

California: McCain loses to either Democratic, to Clinton by 58 percent to 35 percent and to Obama by 61 percent to 34 percent. The margin of error for Clinton-McCain was 4.4 percent and 4.3 percent for Obama-McCain. (SurveyUSA, Feb. 15-17)

Massachusetts: Clinton beats McCain 52 percent to 43 percent, but Obama’s 48 percent to 46 percent lead is within the poll’s 4.3 percent margin of error. (SurveyUSA, Feb. 15-17)

Minnesota: Obama beats McCain decisively by 55 percent to 40 percent, but Clinton’s 49 percent to 45 percent is within the poll’s 4.3 percent margin of error. (SurveyUSA, Feb. 15-17)

Missouri: Clinton leads McCain 51 percent to 43 percent, as does Obama, 49 percent to 43 percent. Margin of error is 4.3 percent. (SurveyUSA, Feb. 15-17)

New Mexico: Obama bests McCain 55 percent to 40 percent while Clinton has a smaller 50 percent to 45 percent advantage. Margin of error is 4.4 percent. A Rasmussen Reports survey below has a different take on New Mexico. (SurveyUSA, Feb. 15-17)

Ohio: Clinton leads McCain 52 percent to 42 percent, while Obama’s lead over McCain, 47 percent to 44 percent, is within the 4.3 percent margin of error. (SurveyUSA, Feb. 15-17)

Oregon: This is a promising state for McCain. Obama is ahead of him by only 48 percent to 47 percent with 6 percent undecided and a 4.3 percent margin of error. McCain leads Clinton 49 percent to 41 percent with 10 percent undecided. (SurveyUSA, Feb. 15-17)

Wisconsin: Obama and McCain are essentially tied at 44 percent to 43 percent respectively in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Feb.21. McCain would beat Clinton by a decisive 50 percent to 38 percent. Obama leads McCain among independents not affiliated with either party, while Clinton trails McCain on that score. The economy is cited as the top issue of the campaign by 38 percent of voters, national security is second at 14 percent and Iraq is third at 13 percent. McCain does better than either Democrat on national security. The margin of error is 4.5 percent and the poll was conducted Feb.21.

New Mexico: Rasmussen puts Obama and McCain at a 44 percent each tie. But, like Wisconsin, McCain runs ahead of Clinton by a comfortable 50 percent to 38 percent. And also like Wisconsin, Obama runs much better than McCain among voters unaffiliated with either party. About a third of New Mexico voters say the economy is the top campaign issue, and both Democrats lead McCain among them, although Clinton’s lead is within the poll’s 4.5 percent margin of error. This poll was conducted Feb.17-18.