Poll Tracker

Rasmussen says McCain and the Democrats are in a statistical tie in New Jersey, with McCain leading Clinton 45 percent to 42 percent and Obama by 46 percent to 45 percent, with a 4 point margin of error. A month ago, Obama ran closely with McCain but Clinton, showing strength in her neighboring state, led McCain 50 percent to 39 percent.

Rasmussen noted that the Republicans have not carried New Jersey for 20 years, but added “in recent years, several GOP candidates have done well in spring polls only to see their hopes fade in the fall.” Clinton’s favorability rating – at 50 percent – is a little better here than is showing up in other state-by-state surveys, but it still represents a 6 point decline since the last poll. McCain’s favorable rating is 61 percent and Obama’s is 58 percent. The economy is cited as the top issue by 47 percent with only 12 percent rating it excellent or good. Twenty-two percent cite Iraq as the top issue, but among those, 39 percent believe the situation will worsen in the next six months compared to 32 percents who believe it will improve.

McCain is also running a close race with the Democrats in Michigan, according to the Rasmussen survey conducted March 25. He leads Obama 43 percent to 42 percent, and Clinton by 45 percent to 42 percent, with a 4.5 percent margin of error. McCain is viewed favorably by 55 percent of voters, Obama by 50 percent and Clinton by 47 percent. This is a state the Democrats have carried in the last four elections. It is also one of the two states (the other being Florida) where the controversy continues over the Democratic Party’s decision to strip both of their delegates for breaking party rules by moving up the dates of their primaries. Forty-five percent of Michigan Democrats say there should be some kind of a re-vote while 39 percent disagree. Mirroring a Gallup poll earlier today, a plurality of Democrats believe Obama would be a stronger opponent for McCain than Clinton (by a 48 percent to 41 percent margin) and 58 percent expect Obama to win the nomination.

And in Washington State, Rasmussen finds McCain is competitive with both Democrats, according to a poll conducted March 27. Obama leads him 48 percent to 43 percent while McCain leads Clinton 46 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. In its Feb. 28 polling, McCain and Obama were statistically tied while Clinton was ahead 48 percent to 40 percent. On the scale of favorability ratings, Obama registers at 57 percent, McCain at 56 percent and Clinton, whose negatives repeat state after state, is at 43 percent. The last time a Republican won this state was in the Ronald Reagan landslide of 1984.

The economy is cited as the top issue by most voters (37 percent) with Iraq next (24 percent). Only 14 percent of Democrats say the economy is good or excellent. Thirty-nine percent believe the U.S. is winning the war on terror against 31 percent.

Here is the CQ Poll Tracker round-up of other recent state-by-state match-ups:

• Wisconsin: Obama and McCain are running neck-and-neck but McCain is ahead of Hillary Clinton by a large margin, according to a Rasmussen Reports pollconducted March 26. McCain leads Obama 48 percent to 46 percent but outpaces Clinton by 50 percent to 39 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. There is one marked difference in this poll compared to one SurveyUSA did March 14-16 which is that while it showed a tight McCain-Obama race, it also said the same was true of Clinton-McCain which may be due to a difference of methodology or slippage in support for Clinton since mid-March. However, Rasmussen’s late February poll also had Clinton significantly behind. Clinton’s negatives, as in other polls, are high: she’s on the wrong end of the favorability ratings by 55 percent to 39 percent while McCain and Obama both enjoy positive ratings. The most important campaign issue for Wisconsin voters is the economy (39 percent) and only 19 percent of them give the economy a good or excellent rating. Twenty-two percent cite Iraq.

• Virginia:McCain is putting more distance between himself and his potential Democratic rivals in Virginia, according to a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted March 27. McCain leads Obama 52 percent to 41 percent and Clinton by a whopping 58 percent to 36 percent. The margin of error is 4,5 percent. The previous Rasmussen poll last month had McCain leading Obama by a more modest 5 points and Clinton by 10 points. But Rasmussen’s findings were even more starkly different when compared to a SurveyUSA poll conducted March 14-16 which showed both Democrats running evenly with McCain, suggesting that perhaps traditionally-Republican Virginia was becoming a “purple” state open to Democratic inroads. Following trends in other national and state-by-state polls, Clinton suffers from high negatives with 61 percent viewing her unfavorably versus 37 percent who give her positive ratings. McCain’s favorable-to unfavorable ratio is 64 percent to 34 percent while Obama’s is 53 percent to 47 percent. Thirty-eight percent of voters choose the economy as the top campaign issue and only 17 percent rate the economy as good or excellent. Fifty-seven percent of Virginia’s voters believe the U.S. is winning in Iraq which Rasmussen notes is higher than the national average, possibly contributing McCain’s strength in this poll.

• Connecticut: Obama has a 52 percent to 35 percent lead over McCain in Connecticut, while Clinton leads McCain by only 45 percent to 42 percent, according to a [Quinnipiac University poll]conducted March 19-24. The margin of error is 2.4 percent. These results are similar to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted in mid-March. A good deal of Obama’s strength comes from independents who favor him 48 percent to 35 percent and voters under 45 who back him by 63 percent to 35 percent. Obama also has a 9 point lead among white voters. - The interesting thing about this poll is the extent to which it mirrors what the national polls are saying about the challenges facing Clinton. Reflecting the national findings of an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released yesterday, Clinton suffers in Connecticut from high negatives, with 47 percent of voters viewing her unfavorably to 46 percent who view her favorably. Obama’s favorability rating is 59 to 24 percent and McCain’s is 52 percent to 31 percent. Democrats say Obama would be a good president by a 56 percent to 28 percent margin with 31 percent of his supporters citing his fresh ideas and 19 percent citing his intelligence. Democrats say Clinton would be a good president by a 49 percent to 43 percent with 48 percent of her supporters pointing to her experience and 27 percent to her intelligence. But again, this poll mirrors a finding about Clinton that has shown up in national polls as well. Of her critics, 25 percent say she is dishonest. USAToday/Gallup had did a March 14-16 survey in which 44 percent considered her honest and trustworthy while 53 percent did not.

• New York: A Quinnipiac University poll puts Clinton's home state firmly in the Democratic column no matter which candidate is nominated. The poll, conducted March 16-18, said Clinton leads McCain 50 percent to 40 percent while Obama bests him 49 percent to 38 percent. The margin of error is 2.5 percent. A previous SurveyUSA poll, conducted March 14-16, had Clinton ahead 54 percent to 41 percent while Obama led 52 percent to 44 percent. Quinnipiac noted “a huge racial split” if the race were to be between Obama and McCain, with McCain leading among white voters 47 percent to 41 percent, while Obama was ahead among black voters 86 percent to 6 percent. Clinton runs evenly with McCain among white voters and leads among black voters 70 percent to 16 percent. SurveyUSA poll had McCain leading Obama among whites by 51 percent to 40 percent, and Obama leading among black voters 85 percent to 9 percent. SurveyUSA’s numbers for Clinton were similar to those of Quinnipiac. Maurice Carroll, head of Quinnipiac’s Polling Institute, said, “Those racial and gender breakdowns are troubling for the Democrats. If Obama trails among white voters in New York, one of the most liberal states in the nation, what does that say about his chances in other states?” Forty-seven percent of voters named economy as the top issue in the campaign and, asked about their own financial situations, 18 percent said they are “getting ahead,” 64 percent said they are “holding steady” and 17 percent said they are “falling behind.”

• Nevada: Obama and Clinton have small but statistically insignificant leads over McCain, according to a Rasmussen Reports conducted March 19. Obama leads 45 percent to 41 percent while Clinton is ahead 44 percent to 43 percent, both within a 4.5 percent margin of error. In mid-February, Obama had led 50 percent to 38 percent, while McCain led Clinton 49 percent to 40 percent, which is reflective of the slide Obama has taken in state and national polls during March. Rasmussen notes that Nevada has voted with the winner in the last seven elections, and in the last four, the winning margin was no larger than 4 points. Thirty-nine percent of Nevadans say the economy is the top issue and only 17 percent of them rate it as good or excellent.

• North Carolina: In a poll conducted March 20, Rasmussen has McCain way out in front of both Democrats. McCain leads Clinto n50 percent to 34 percent, and is ahead of Obama 51 percent to 42 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Forty-eight percent view the economy as the top issue and just 15 percent rate it as good or excellent.

• California: Both Democrats have comfortable leads over McCain. Clinton leads him 56 percent to 38 percent and Obama bests him 54 percent to 40 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain gets about a quarter of black and Hispanic voters in a race against Clinton. Against Obama, he gets a third of Hispanic voters but only 13 percent of black voters. Like all other states, Californians say the economy is the top issue (37 percent). There is hardly a demographic or issue category in which McCain leads, although he is the runaway winner as usual among those who cite terrorism as the top issue here (10 percent).

• Massachusetts: Hillary Clinton leads McCain 55 percent to 42 percent, while McCain ties Obama at 47 percent each. The poll was conducted March 14-16 and has a 4.5 percent margin of error. Clinton has a 2-to-1 lead over McCain among women voters. McCain leads Obama by a modest 49 percent to 44 percent among white voters, but what is interesting is that while Obama’s lead over McCain among black voters is a substantial 69 percent to 29 percent, that is generally a better showing among black voters than Clinton has registered in polls and primaries. Forty-seven percent of voters named the economy as the top issue and both Clinton and Obama have modest leads over McCain among those voters. Of the 17 percent who cared most about Iraq, Clinton and Obama had large leads over McCain. As in nearly every other state poll, McCain far outdistances either Democrat on the issue of dealing with terrorism, but in Massachusetts, only 7 percent name that as the top issue.

• Oregon: While McCain is behind both Democrats, he is competitive here. Clinton leads him 50 percent to 44 percent, and Obama is ahead 50 percent to 41 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. The only age group where there is a gaping difference between McCain and the Democrats is the 18-to-34 voters where the leads of Clinton and Obama are in double-digits. Clinton runs evenly with McCain among white voters (87 percent of the sample), but Obama does better in this state, leading McCain 50 percent to 42 percent. Thirty-six percent say the economy is the top issue and these voters are pretty much split between McCain and either Democrat. The 15 percent of voters who cite Iraq are heavily in favor of the Democrats over McCain, although the 9 percent most concerned with terrorism favor McCain by the usual overwhelming margins.

• Minnesota: This shapes up as a tight race no matter which Democrat faces McCain. Clinton leads him 49 percent to 46 percent and McCain edges Obama 47 percent to 46 percent, but the margin of error is 4.3 percent. Obama and Clinton have double-digit leads over McCain among voters under 34, but McCain reverses that in the 35-to-49 age group. Both Democrats run fairly evenly with McCain among white voters, and among black voters, McCain runs evenly with Clinton and trails Obama by about 3-to-1. The top issue among Minnesotans is the economy (cited by 46 percent) and McCain is roughly even with both Democrats. Health care is second at 13 percent and both Clinton and Obama enjoy big leads among these voters as they do with the 12 percent who care most about Iraq. McCain holds his usual large lead here among the 7 percent of voters most worried about terrorism.

• Iowa:This is a competitive state with McCain leading Clinton 48 percent to 44 percent and Obama leading McCain 50 percent to 44 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. There’s a big gender gap here, though with a few twists. McCain has a 20 point advantage over Clinton among male voters, while Clinton’s edge among women voters is 9 points, less than the 16 point advantage enjoyed by Obama. As in Minnesota, Clinton and Obama have big leads among voters under 34 but lag McCain in the 35-to-49 age group. McCain has double digit leads among the 48 percent of voters who say they attend religious services regularly and among the 29 percent who say they are Evangelicals. The economy is cited as the top issue by 39 percent and Obama and Clinton have double-digit leads among them. On the terrorism issue, where McCain’s margins have sometimes been anywhere from 8-to-1 to 10-to-1 over either Democrat, Clinton and Obama fare a little better here with the difference being more in the 4-to-1 range. On Iraq, cited by 15 percent, Obama and Clinton lead McCain by a heft margin. Immigration was a big issue for Republicans during the Iowa caucus, but it is cited as a top general election issue by only 10 percent of voters. They favor McCain by big margins.

• Kansas:McCain leads Clinton 55 percent to 36 percent and Obama by 51 percent to 39 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. McCain beats Clinton in all age groups and lags Obama only among voters under 34. He has leads each Democrat by more than 20 points among white voters who made up 87 percent of the sample. More than half of Kansans say they attend religious services regular and McCain leads by 2-to-1 among them. Twenty-seven percent describe themselves as Evangelicals and, there, McCain’s leads are in the 3-to-1 range. Thirty-six percent of voters cite the economy as the top issue and, in this state, McCain leads Clinton 54 percent to 38 percent and Obama by roughly the same amount as the poll’s margin of error. Among the 12 percent of voters most concerned about Iraq, Clinton and Obama lead McCain but by less than in some other states (an 11 point edge for Clinton and 9 points for Obama). Immigration was cited by 11 percent and McCain’s leads are 3-to-1. His lead on fighting terrorism among the 7 percent of voters who placed that first is 76 percent to 22 percent over Clinton and 87 percent to 11 percent over Obama.

• New Mexico:Although both Democrats lead, the state is in play. Both Clinton and Obama are ahead of McCain by 51 percent to 45 percent. Differences among age groups are not that pronounced here. McCain has slight leads over either Democrat among white voters (51 percent of the sample) but Clinton leads among Hispanic voters (37 percent) by more than 2-to-1 and Obama leads McCain by 16 points. The economy is the top issue for 36 percent of voters and each Democrat has a modest lead over McCain among them. Iraq is second at 16 percent and each Democrat has at least a 20 point lead over McCain. For the 7 percent citing terrorism, McCain leads Clinton 97 percent to 3 percent and Obama by 94 percent to 6 percent.

• Arkansas: Clinton trails McCain in a general election match-up in her home state of Arkansas and Obama is not even close, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll() conducted March 18. McCain leads Clinton 50 percent to 43 percent and Obama by 59 percent to 30 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain far outpaces Clinton in favorability ratings, among voters by 66 percent to 50 percent. The economy is regarded as the top issue, with 48 percent of voters citing it, and among them, just 14 percent rate the economy good or excellent.

• Georgia: Rasmussen, in a poll conducted March 20, showed McCain leading Obama 53 percent to 40 percent and Clinton 54 percent to 34 percent. Georgia voters also named the economy as the most important issue (45 percent) and only 15 percent said the economy was good or excellent.

• Alabama: McCain is running far ahead of either Clinton or Obama, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted March 14-16. McCain beats Clinton 56 percent to 38 percent, while leading Obama 62 percent to 35 percent. Alabama has 9 electoral votes. McCain leads both Democrats in all age groups by double digits. 45 percent of the sample identifies themselves as Evangelicals and McCain leads Clinton there by 67 percent to 29 percent and Obama by 76 percent to 21 percent. The economy is identified as the top issue by 35 percent of voters and while Clinton runs about even with McCain among them, McCain leads Obama 54 percent to 42 percent. Clinton leads McCain by 2-to-1 among the 13 percent of voters who cited Iraq as the top issue but the gap between him and Obama is within the polls 4.2 percent margin of error. Terrorism was cited by 11 percent as the top issue and, as in some other states polls, McCain leads both potential foes by huge margins. The same is true on the issue of immigration, named as the most important by 13 percent of the sample.

• Missouri: McCain runs far ahead of Obama in this state with 11 electoral votes, but would be in a tight race with Hillary Clinton, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted March 14-16. His margin over Obama is 53 percent to 39 percent, while he leads Clinton by only 48 percent to 46 percent. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. McCain bests Obama by double-digits in all age groups except 50-to-64 where they are in a statistical tie. He also leads Clinton among all age groups except 50-to-64, but by smaller margins. Clinton leads him in the 50-to-64 group by 56 percent to 38 percent. The economy is named as the top issue by 41 percent of voters, and Clinton leads McCain among them by 8 points while Obama trails McCain by 9 points. Among the 13 percent of voters who said Iraq was the key issue, the differences between McCain and the Democrats was within the margin of error. However, among the 9 percent who cited terrorism as the top issue, McCain led both Democrats by more than 60 points.

• Kentucky: McCain blows away Obama by a 2-to-1 margin (64 percent to 28 percent) and leads Clinton 53 percent to 43 percent in the quest for Kentucky's 8 electoral votes. This SurveyUSA poll was also conducted March 14-16 and the margin of error is 4.3 percent. Here, McCain trails Clinton among voters under 34, but wins in all other age groups by significant margins. He has better than 2-to-1 leads over Obama in every age group. Thirty-nine percent of voters chose the economy as the top issue and they favored McCain by 54 percent to 43 percent over Clinton, and by the wide margin over Obama that he enjoys in almost every category of this poll. Iraq was cited as the top issue by 14 percent and they heavily favored McCain over either Democrat and, as in Missouri, the same was true on the issue of terrorism, which was named by 11 percent. The actual poll figure on terrorism for McCain vs. Obama was 93 percent to 3 percent.

• Ohio: With its 20 electoral votes and importance as a swing state, Ohio looms large in the general election, and a poll out today shows John McCain faring pretty well against the Democrats. Public Policy Polling, in a survey conducted March 15-17, says McCain leads Barack Obama 49 percent to 41 percent and trails Hillary Clinton by just 45 percent to 44 percent, a statistically insignificant figure given the 3.9 percent margin of error. PPP says this poll is similar to the one it released yesterday on Florida, showing Clinton as having difficulty with black voters and Obama with holding on to the Democratic base. The latter is not a problem for McCain as far as Republicans go. On issues, 53 percent of Ohio voters say the top concern is the economy and 19 percent cite Iraq, with all others in single digits. A SurveyUSA poll conducted March 14-16 had Clinton ahead of McCain 50 percent to 44 percent, and McCain ahead of Obama by 50 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. Clinton does better than Obama against McCain among male voters, running about evenly while Obama lags by 10 points. The economy was cited as the top issue by 48 percent of voters with health care at 13 percent and Iraq at 11 percent. Clinton bests McCain among voters concerned about the economy by 55 percent to 39 percent, while Obama and McCain are in a statistical tie. On Iraq, McCain lags Clinton by 4 points and Obama by 17.

• Florida: McCain leads both Clinton and Obama in the key general election state of Florida, according to a new poll, although its findings differ somewhat from a different survey last week. Public Policy Polling has McCain ahead of Clinton 47 percent to 43 percent and leading Obama 50 percent to 39 percent in a survey conducted March 15-16. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll released Friday had McCain over Obama 47 percent to 43 percent and ahead of Clinton 47 percent to 40 percent.The PPP survey said both Democrats were having trouble among voters who they need to count upon as bases of support. Clinton only has the support of 51 percent of black voters in the poll, with 36 percent undecided and 13 percent favoring McCain. Obama leads McCain among Democrats 60 percent to 25 percent, but the survey suggested that margin is not large enough for him to carry the state.McCain has double digit leads over Obama and Clinton among male voters. Clinton has an 8 point lead over McCain among women voters, but McCain bests Obama in this group by 9 points.Forty-seven percent of Floridians say the economy is the top issue, followed by Iraq at 24 percent. All other issues are in single digits.

• Tennessee: McCain leads Obama 50 percent to 36 percent, says a Middle Tennessee State University poll conducted Feb. 11-23.. His margin over Clinton is smaller, 45 percent to 38 percent. The poll says that figure applies to Tennessee adults. When “likely voters” are asked, the margin over Obama is 53 percent to 37 percent. Mike Huckabee also leads Obama or Clinton. The poll says appears to indicate that the margin of error is as high as 8 percent.