Poll Tracker

Connecticut: Obama leads McCain in by 50 percent to 38 percent, while Clinton is ahead by a statistically insignificant 47 percent to 44 percent. The poll was conducted March 11 and has a 4.5 percent margin of error. There is a big gender gap with Clinton and Obama both leading McCain among women voters by 20 points. Among men, McCain has a big lead over Clinton but slightly trails Obama. Obama beat Clinton in the Democratic primary here 51 percent to 47 percent.

New Jersey: Rasmussen Reports says a Feb. 27 survey found that Hillary Clinton would trounce John McCain in her neighbouring state by 50 percent to 39 percent while Barack Obama is behind John McCain 45 percent to 43 percent, with a 4 point margin of error. Rasmussen notes that this is one of the few states (Florida is another) where Clinton outperforms Obama in a general election test against McCain.

Florida: A Mason-Dixon poll conducted Feb. 21-24 has McCain leading Obama by 47 percent to 37 percent and Clinton by 49 percent to 40 percent. On the issue of seating the delegates that were stripped from Florida when it moved up its primary in defiance of party rules, 28 percent of Democrats said the state party should hold another election, 24 percent said the delegation should be seated as-is, 15 percent said the state party should accept the penalty because it knowingly violated the rules, and 13 percent favored a delegation evenly split between Obama and Clinton.

Tennessee: McCain leads Obama 50 percent to 36 percent, says a Middle Tennessee State University poll conducted Feb. 11-23.. His margin over Clinton is smaller, 45 percent to 38 percent. The poll says that figure applies to Tennessee adults. When “likely voters” are asked, the margin over Obama is 53 percent to 37 percent. Mike Huckabee also leads Obama or Clinton. The poll says appears to indicate that the margin of error is as high as 8 percent.

North Carolina: McCain leads both Democrats here, by 48 percent to 36 percent over Clinton with 17 percent “not sure,” and 46 percent to 36 percent over Obama with 18 percent not sure, according to the Civitas Institute DecisionMaker poll which was conducted Feb. 19-22. The margin of error is 3.7 percent.

Alabama: McCain beats Clinton 57 percent to 37 percent and Obama by 58 percent to 34 percent. Margin of error is 4.2 percent. (SurveyUSA, Feb. 15-17)

California: McCain loses to either Democratic, to Clinton by 58 percent to 35 percent and to Obama by 61 percent to 34 percent. The margin of error for Clinton-McCain was 4.4 percent and 4.3 percent for Obama-McCain. (SurveyUSA, Feb. 15-17)

Massachusetts: Clinton beats McCain 52 percent to 43 percent, but Obama’s 48 percent to 46 percent lead is within the poll’s 4.3 percent margin of error. (SurveyUSA, Feb. 15-17)

Minnesota: Obama beats McCain decisively by 55 percent to 40 percent, but Clinton’s 49 percent to 45 percent is within the poll’s 4.3 percent margin of error. (SurveyUSA, Feb. 15-17)

Missouri: Clinton leads McCain 51 percent to 43 percent, as does Obama, 49 percent to 43 percent. Margin of error is 4.3 percent. (SurveyUSA, Feb. 15-17)

New Mexico: Obama bests McCain 55 percent to 40 percent while Clinton has a smaller 50 percent to 45 percent advantage. Margin of error is 4.4 percent. A Rasmussen Reports survey below has a different take on New Mexico. (SurveyUSA, Feb. 15-17)

Ohio: Clinton leads McCain 52 percent to 42 percent, while Obama’s lead over McCain, 47 percent to 44 percent, is within the 4.3 percent margin of error. (SurveyUSA, Feb. 15-17)

Oregon: This is a promising state for McCain. Obama is ahead of him by only 48 percent to 47 percent with 6 percent undecided and a 4.3 percent margin of error. McCain leads Clinton 49 percent to 41 percent with 10 percent undecided. (SurveyUSA, Feb. 15-17)

Wisconsin: Obama and McCain are essentially tied at 44 percent to 43 percent respectively in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Feb.21. McCain would beat Clinton by a decisive 50 percent to 38 percent. Obama leads McCain among independents not affiliated with either party, while Clinton trails McCain on that score. The economy is cited as the top issue of the campaign by 38 percent of voters, national security is second at 14 percent and Iraq is third at 13 percent. McCain does better than either Democrat on national security. The margin of error is 4.5 percent and the poll was conducted Feb.21.

New Mexico: Rasmussen puts Obama and McCain at a 44 percent each tie. But, like Wisconsin, McCain runs ahead of Clinton by a comfortable 50 percent to 38 percent. And also like Wisconsin, Obama runs much better than McCain among voters unaffiliated with either party. About a third of New Mexico voters say the economy is the top campaign issue, and both Democrats lead McCain among them, although Clinton’s lead is within the poll’s 4.5 percent margin of error. This poll was conducted Feb.17-18.