Poll Tracker

Alabama: McCain is running far ahead of either Clinton or Obama, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted March 14-16. McCain beats Clinton 56 percent to 38 percent, while leading Obama 62 percent to 35 percent. Alabama has 9 electoral votes. McCain leads both Democrats in all age groups by double digits. 45 percent of the sample identifies themselves as Evangelicals and McCain leads Clinton there by 67 percent to 29 percent and Obama by 76 percent to 21 percent. The economy is identified as the top issue by 35 percent of voters and while Clinton runs about even with McCain among them, McCain leads Obama 54 percent to 42 percent. Clinton leads McCain by 2-to-1 among the 13 percent of voters who cited Iraq as the top issue but the gap between him and Obama is within the polls 4.2 percent margin of error. Terrorism was cited by 11 percent as the top issue and, as in some other states polls, McCain leads both potential foes by huge margins. The same is true on the issue of immigration, named as the most important by 13 percent of the sample.

Missouri: McCain runs far ahead of Obama in this state with 11 electoral votes, but would be in a tight race with Hillary Clinton, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted March 14-16. His margin over Obama is 53 percent to 39 percent, while he leads Clinton by only 48 percent to 46 percent. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. McCain bests Obama by double-digits in all age groups except 50-to-64 where they are in a statistical tie. He also leads Clinton among all age groups except 50-to-64, but by smaller margins. Clinton leads him in the 50-to-64 group by 56 percent to 38 percent.

The economy is named as the top issue by 41 percent of voters, and Clinton leads McCain among them by 8 points while Obama trails McCain by 9 points. Among the 13 percent of voters who said Iraq was the key issue, the differences between McCain and the Democrats was within the margin of error. However, among the 9 percent who cited terrorism as the top issue, McCain led both Democrats by more than 60 points.

Kentucky: McCain blows away Obama by a 2-to-1 margin (64 percent to 28 percent) and leads Clinton 53 percent to 43 percent in the quest for Kentucky's 8 electoral votes. This SurveyUSA poll was also conducted March 14-16 and the margin of error is 4.3 percent. Here, McCain trails Clinton among voters under 34, but wins in all other age groups by significant margins. He has better than 2-to-1 leads over Obama in every age group.

Thirty-nine percent of voters chose the economy as the top issue and they favored McCain by 54 percent to 43 percent over Clinton, and by the wide margin over Obama that he enjoys in almost every category of this poll. Iraq was cited as the top issue by 14 percent and they heavily favored McCain over either Democrat and, as in Missouri, the same was true on the issue of terrorism, which was named by 11 percent. The actual poll figure on terrorism for McCain vs. Obama was 93 percent to 3 percent.

Ohio: With its 20 electoral votes and importance as a swing state, Ohio looms large in the general election, and a poll out today shows John McCain faring pretty well against the Democrats. Public Policy Polling, in a survey conducted March 15-17, says McCain leads Barack Obama 49 percent to 41 percent and trails Hillary Clinton by just 45 percent to 44 percent, a statistically insignificant figure given the 3.9 percent margin of error.

PPP says this poll is similar to the one it released yesterday on Florida, showing Clinton as having difficulty with black voters and Obama with holding on to the Democratic base. The latter is not a problem for McCain as far as Republicans go.

On issues, 53 percent of Ohio voters say the top concern is the economy and 19 percent cite Iraq, with all others in single digits.

A SurveyUSA poll conducted March 14-16 had Clinton ahead of McCain 50 percent to 44 percent, and McCain ahead of Obama by 50 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. Clinton does better than Obama against McCain among male voters, running about evenly while Obama lags by 10 points.

The economy was cited as the top issue by 48 percent of voters with health care at 13 percent and Iraq at 11 percent. Clinton bests McCain among voters concerned about the economy by 55 percent to 39 percent, while Obama and McCain are in a statistical tie. On Iraq, McCain lags Clinton by 4 points and Obama by 17.

Florida: McCain leads both Clinton and Obama in the key general election state of Florida, according to a new poll, although its findings differ somewhat from a different survey last week. Public Policy Polling has McCain ahead of Clinton 47 percent to 43 percent and leading Obama 50 percent to 39 percent in a survey conducted March 15-16. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll released Friday had McCain over Obama 47 percent to 43 percent and ahead of Clinton 47 percent to 40 percent.

The PPP survey said both Democrats were having trouble among voters who they need to count upon as bases of support. Clinton only has the support of 51 percent of black voters in the poll, with 36 percent undecided and 13 percent favoring McCain. Obama leads McCain among Democrats 60 percent to 25 percent, but the survey suggested that margin is not large enough for him to carry the state.

McCain has double digit leads over Obama and Clinton among male voters. Clinton has an 8 point lead over McCain among women voters, but McCain bests Obama in this group by 9 points.

Forty-seven percent of Floridians say the economy is the top issue, followed by Iraq at 24 percent. All other issues are in single digits.

Connecticut: Obama leads McCain in by 50 percent to 38 percent, while Clinton is ahead by a statistically insignificant 47 percent to 44 percent. The poll was conducted March 11 and has a 4.5 percent margin of error. There is a big gender gap with Clinton and Obama both leading McCain among women voters by 20 points. Among men, McCain has a big lead over Clinton but slightly trails Obama. Obama beat Clinton in the Democratic primary here 51 percent to 47 percent.

New Jersey: Rasmussen Reports says a Feb. 27 survey found that Hillary Clinton would trounce John McCain in her neighbouring state by 50 percent to 39 percent while Barack Obama is behind John McCain 45 percent to 43 percent, with a 4 point margin of error. Rasmussen notes that this is one of the few states (Florida is another) where Clinton outperforms Obama in a general election test against McCain.

Tennessee: McCain leads Obama 50 percent to 36 percent, says a Middle Tennessee State University poll conducted Feb. 11-23.. His margin over Clinton is smaller, 45 percent to 38 percent. The poll says that figure applies to Tennessee adults. When “likely voters” are asked, the margin over Obama is 53 percent to 37 percent. Mike Huckabee also leads Obama or Clinton. The poll says appears to indicate that the margin of error is as high as 8 percent.

North Carolina: McCain leads both Democrats here, by 48 percent to 36 percent over Clinton with 17 percent “not sure,” and 46 percent to 36 percent over Obama with 18 percent not sure, according to the Civitas Institute DecisionMaker poll which was conducted Feb. 19-22. The margin of error is 3.7 percent.

*California: McCain loses to either Democratic, to Clinton by 58 percent to 35 percent and to Obama by 61 percent to 34 percent. The margin of error for Clinton-McCain was 4.4 percent and 4.3 percent for Obama-McCain. (SurveyUSA, Feb. 15-17)

Massachusetts: Clinton beats McCain 52 percent to 43 percent, but Obama’s 48 percent to 46 percent lead is within the poll’s 4.3 percent margin of error. (SurveyUSA, Feb. 15-17)

Minnesota: Obama beats McCain decisively by 55 percent to 40 percent, but Clinton’s 49 percent to 45 percent is within the poll’s 4.3 percent margin of error. (SurveyUSA, Feb. 15-17)

New Mexico: Obama bests McCain 55 percent to 40 percent while Clinton has a smaller 50 percent to 45 percent advantage. Margin of error is 4.4 percent. A Rasmussen Reports survey below has a different take on New Mexico. (SurveyUSA, Feb. 15-17)

Oregon: This is a promising state for McCain. Obama is ahead of him by only 48 percent to 47 percent with 6 percent undecided and a 4.3 percent margin of error. McCain leads Clinton 49 percent to 41 percent with 10 percent undecided. (SurveyUSA, Feb. 15-17)

Wisconsin: Obama and McCain are essentially tied at 44 percent to 43 percent respectively in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Feb.21. McCain would beat Clinton by a decisive 50 percent to 38 percent. Obama leads McCain among independents not affiliated with either party, while Clinton trails McCain on that score. The economy is cited as the top issue of the campaign by 38 percent of voters, national security is second at 14 percent and Iraq is third at 13 percent. McCain does better than either Democrat on national security. The margin of error is 4.5 percent and the poll was conducted Feb.21.