John McCain is running strongly in three states that have been solidly Democratic in recent presidential elections and a particular surprise is New Jersey where, a month ago, Hillary Clinton had a double-digit lead, according to a new round of state-by-state general election match-ups.

The series of polls by Rasmussen Reports, which included Michigan and Washington State, also underscored what most other national and state polling has found – high negatives for Clinton as far as favorability ratings. McCain often scores the highest favorability ratings, while Obama comes out on the positive side, but by lesser margins.

A majority of Democrats and Republicans believe that Barack Obama has a better chance of defeating John McCain in November than does Hillary Clinton, according to a Gallup Panel survey conducted March 24-27. Democrats say 59 percent to 30 percent that Obama has a better chance against McCain and, on the question of who McCain would have an easier time beating, Republicans said Clinton by a 64 percent to 22 percent margin. Gallup says the poll also shows "there is a fairly widely held belief among party supporters -- including a plurality of Clinton supporters -- that the ongoing campaign is hurting their chances of winning in November."

Barack Obama has a statistically significant lead over Hillary Clinton for the fourth straight time in the Gallup daily tracking poll just released. He runs ahead by 51 percent to 43 percent, a point less than yesterdat, but still beyond the 3 point margin of error. the poll was conducted March 28-30. There wasn't any change in the national match-ups against John McCain where both Democrats remain in a statistical tie with him.

Two new polls show that Barack Obama continues to maintain a double-digit lead over Hillary Clinton in the upcoming North Carolina Primary.

An American Research Group poll released today shows a 13 percentage point lead for Barack Obama among Democrats in North Carolina. He leads Hillary Rodham Clinton 51 percent to 38 percent, and has a solid margin among men, women and African-American voters. There is no appreciable difference in his lead among the 18-49 age group and the 50 and older group, getting 51 percent of support with each cohort in the latest statewide poll. Clinton still has an advantage among white voters, currently sitting at 49 percent support to Obama's 37 percent. Twenty-two percent of respondents said that they would never vote for Obama in the state's primary, and 30 percent of repsondents said the same about Clinton. Results are based on responses from a random sample of 600 likely Democratic primary voters in North Carolina. The poll was conducted March 29-30 and the margin of error is 4 percentage points.

In the latest Public Policy Polling survey conducted March 29-30, Obama leads 54 percent to 36 percent. PPP’s Dean Debnam noted that Obama runs strongly among voters who never have participated in a primary, leading among that group by 60 percent to 32 percent. The economy and jobs are cited as the most important issue by 48 percent of likely Democratic voters with Iraq second at 25 percent. Clinton has a 53 percent to 36 percent lead among white voters (57 percent of the sample) while Obama leads among black voters (36 percent of the sample) 81 percent to 11 percent.

The results of these polls track with an InsiderAdvantage poll released last week.

Gallup polled employees asking whether their employer currently is hiring, letting workers go or not making personnel changes and concluded that net new hiring is down since February. Although today's numbers have dropped only a little since last month — down 0.3 percentage points — expectations of seasonal job surges were not met. The same poll had a much larger 2.1-point drop from January to February. Regional breakdowns of the Gallup data indicate similar trends to other data on the current economic environment: the East has been particularly hard-hit by job loss in the wake of financial crises. This relatively new "net new hiring" poll by Gallup is conducted from interviews with no fewer than 1,000 adults nationwide each day. The economic questions analyzed in this report are asked of a random half-sample of respondents, and the results reported are based on combined data of more than 8,000 interviews in January, February, and March. For results based on the samples, the margin of error is ±1 percentage point.

The Rasmussen Consumer Index, a consumer confidence index which was aslo covered by Poll Tracker in January shows relatively stable but consistently low consumer confidence. Scores have fallen to 74.3 in the most recent index released today. The lowest score ever recorded by Rasmussen was 73.0 earlier this month. Relatedly, Rasmussen's Small Business Watch showed a record low for small business owner confidence, and its Investor Index shows consistent declines.

Rasmussen Consumer Index and Investor Index questions are asked in telephone surveys of 500 adults and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The baseline for the Index was established at 100.0 in October 2001.

Barack Obama has opened his biggest lead so far this year over Hillary Clinton in Gallup's daily tracking poll. Obama bests Clinton 52 percent to 42 percent in the survey conducted March 27-29. The last time one of the Democratic contenders had a double-digit lead over the other was in a Feb. 4-6 survey when Clinton was ahead by 11 points. The margin of error is 3 points. In the general election match-ups: not much change. McCain is ahead of Clinton by 4 points and Obama by 3 points, with a 2 percent margin of error.

In our latest round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups, we'll start with a new poll out today on Wisconsin.

Barack Obama and John McCain are running neck-and-neck in that state but McCain is ahead of Hillary Clinton by a large margin, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted March 26. McCain leads Obama 48 percent to 46 percent but outpaces Clinton by 50 percent to 39 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. There is one marked difference in this poll compared to one SurveyUSA did March 14-16 which is that while it showed a tight McCain-Obama race, it also said the same was true of Clinton-McCain which may be due to a difference of methodology or slippage in support for Clinton since mid-March. However, Rasmussen’s late February poll also had Clinton significantly behind. Clinton’s negatives, as in other polls, are high: she’s on the wrong end of the favorability ratings by 55 percent to 39 percent while McCain and Obama both enjoy positive ratings.

The most important campaign issue for Wisconsin voters is the economy (39 percent) and only 19 percent of them give the economy a good or excellent rating. Twenty-two percent cite Iraq.

Read on after the jump to see our round-up of other state-by-state general election match-ups.

John McCain is putting more distance between himself and his potential Democratic rivals in Virginia, according to a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted March 27. McCain leads Barack Obama 52 percent to 41 percent and Hillary Clinton by a whopping 58 percent to 36 percent. The margin of error is 4,5 percent. The previous Rasmussen poll last month had McCain leading Obama by a more modest 5 points and Clinton by 10 points. But Rasmussen’s findings were even more starkly different when compared to a SurveyUSA poll conducted March 14-16 which showed both Democrats running evenly with McCain, suggesting that perhaps traditionally-Republican Virginia was becoming a “purple” state open to Democratic inroads.

Following trends in other national and state-by-state polls, Clinton suffers from high negatives with 61 percent viewing her unfavorably versus 37 percent who give her positive ratings. McCain’s favorable-to unfavorable ratio is 64 percent to 34 percent while Obama’s is 53 percent to 47 percent. Thirty-eight percent of voters choose the economy as the top campaign issue and only 17 percent rate the economy as good or excellent. Fifty-seven percent of Virginia’s voters believe the U.S. is winning in Iraq which Rasmussen notes is higher than the national average, possibly contributing McCain’s strength in this poll.

Here’s one we missed this week. An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted March 26 had Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton 49 percent to 34 percent in North Carolina, which votes May 6, Seventeen percent were undecided. The margin of error is 5 percent. Matt Towery of InsiderAdvantage said, “Most troubling for Clinton is that the trends in our polling of North Carolina show that a modest but significant portion of whites are drifting from Clinton back into the ‘undecided’ column. Twenty percent of whites are undecided.“ He added that the controversy over Obama’s ex-pastor had not alienated enough whites to significantly change that dynamic. This poll’s resuls generally square with one conducted March 24 by Public Policy Polling.

Barack Obama has a 50 percent to 42 percent lead over Hillary Clinton in Gallup’s new daily tracking poll conducted March 25-27. The margin of error is 3 percent. Gallup notes that this is the first time Obama has opened a statistically significant lead over Clinton since before the controversy over his ex-pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright. As we’ve noted in recent CQ Politics stories, the tide seems to have shifted to Obama after he underwent a brutal first half of March, and now polls are signaling some significant weaknesses for Clinton.

In general election match-ups, for which voters were sampled March 22 and March 24-27, John McCain leads Clinton 48 percent to 44 percent and Obama by 46 percent to 44 percent. The margin of error is 2 percent.

Rasmussen Reports' daily tracking poll shows some different results. Obama leads Clinton by a statistically insignificant 2 points. McCain leads both Democrats, Clinton by 49 percent to 41 percent and Obama by 49 percent to 42 percent. As other polls have been showing this week, Clinton is suffering from some pronounced negatives with 53 percent viewing her as unfavorable against 45 percent who are favorable.

See how these compare to other recent national polls.

In the latest poll in Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 51 percent to 39 percent, according to an American Research Group survey conducted March 26-27. The margin of error is 4 percent. Clinton’s lead is up one point from an ARG survey conducted earlier this month. The results are consistent with recent polls by Rasmussen Reports and Franklin & Marshall.

The gender gap is large here with Obama leading 51 percent to 38 percent among men voters and Clinton by 61 percent to 30 percent among women voters. Clinton leads by 2-to-1 among white voters who make up 79 percent of the sample, while Obama leads by more than 7-to-1 among black voters who comprise 17 percent of those Democrats likely to show up at the polls. Obama’s normal advantage among younger voters doesn’t apply here, but Clinton’s edge among older ones does – she leads by almost 2-to-1 among voters over 50. Thirteen percent of Democrats say they would not vote for Clinton if she got the nomination, and 23 percent said they would not vote for Obama. For a national perspective on voters who might sit out if their candidate lost, see yesterday’s CNN poll.

Check out this coverage of the race in Pennsylvania:

• Pennsylvania Governor To Help Send Obama Message To Voters And Superdelegates Philadelphia Inquirer
• How Clintons Are Courting A Pennsylvania Superdelegate Harrisburg Patriot Times

Gallup says in a new report this morning that the number of Americans worried “a great deal” about the economy has surged 20 percent in the last year, moving that issue up from sixth to first place on a list of 12 issues of concern on which Gallup polls. The other issue of concern to show a double-digit increase – 11 percent – was unemployment. The survey was conduced March 6-9.

Unsurprisingly, a lot of the campaign coverage in this morning's papers centered around economic issues:

• The Campaign And Mortgage Crisis: Intervention Or A Bailout? New York Times
• As Candidates Warm to Bush Tax Cuts, Economists Warn of Long-Term Effect Washington Post
• Economy Emerges As Central Campaign Issue Los Angeles Times

Close behind the economy was health care about which 58 percent also said they worried a great deal. Crime and violence was cited by 49 percent, energy at 40 percent, Social Security at 46 percent, drug use at 43 percent, while the environment, illegal immigration and terrorism registered at 40 percent.

Noting partisan differences on these issues, Gallup said Republicans were more concerned than Democrats on illegal immigration and terrorism, while Democrats expressed more concern about healthcare, energy, Social Security, the environment, hunger/homelessness, unemployment, and race relations.

A CNN/Opinion Research poll, conducted March 21-23, said 16 percent of Hillary Clinton's supporters would sit out the November election if Obama was the nominee and an equal number of Obama supporters said they would too if it's the other way around. CNN added the cautionary note that "polls are just snapshots of how people feel at the moment. If the Democrats can come together and agree on a nominee, most of the ill will could be just a memory by November."

A Pew Research poll earlier today explored the question of how many supporters of each would vote for John McCain if their candidate didn't get the nomination. Pew said 32 percent of Clinton backers would support McCain if Obama is the nominee. Twenty-eight percent of Obama supporters say the same. Pew noted that many of these defections come from independentys who lean Democratic and that when the question is limited to Democrats, the figures is 25 percent for Clinton supporters and 20 percent for Obama supporters.

Pew Research has a new survey out today that underscores a lot of findings that have been coming out in other state and national polls this week:

• The controversy over Barack Obama's ex-pastor has not hurt Obama's campaign.
• Obama has a much more positive image than Hillary Clinton among voters and voters have doubts about Clinton's honesty and authenticity
• Americans are as negative about the economy as they were during the big recession of the early 1990s.
• Dissatisfaction with the direction of the country is at its highest in any Pew survey since 1993.

However, Pew differs from yesterday's NBC News/ Wall Street Journal poll in the state of the Democratic race. The Pew Survey, conducted March 19-22, says Obama is ahead of Clinton 49 percent to 39 percent, with a 5.5 percent margin of error where yesterday's NBC/Journal offering had them deadlocked at 45 percent each. That poll was conducted March 24-25. Gallup's daily tracking poll, conducted March 24-26 has Obama ahead 48 percent to 44 percent with a 3 point margin of error.

Barack Obama leads John McCain in delegate-rich California by 49 percent to 40 percent among likely voters while Hillary Clinton holds a bare lead over McCain of 46 percent to 43 percent, according to a Public Policy Institute of California poll conducted March 11-18. the margin of error is 3 percent. This contrasts markedly with a March14-16 poll by SurveyUSA showing Obama and Clinton both with comfortable margins over McCain.

Obama’s favorability rating is 61 positive percent to 34 percent negative, McCain’s is 49 percent to 45 percent and, has it has been showing up in other state and national polls , those with unfavorable opinions of Clinton outnumber the favorables 52 percent to 45 percent.

Barack Obama has a 52 percent to 35 percent lead over John McCain in Connecticut, while Hillary Clinton leads McCain by only 45 percent to 42 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted March 19-24. The margin of error is 2.4 percent. These results are similar to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted in mid-March. A good deal of Obama’s strength comes from independents who favor him 48 percent to 35 percent and voters under 45 who back him by 63 percent to 35 percent. Obama also has a 9 point lead among white voters.

The interesting thing about this poll is the extent to which it mirrors what the national polls are saying about the challenges facing Clinton.

Reflecting the national findings of an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released yesterday, Clinton suffers in Connecticut from high negatives, with 47 percent of voters viewing her unfavorably to 46 percent who view her favorably. Obama’s favorability rating is 59 to 24 percent and McCain’s is 52 percent to 31 percent.

Democrats say Obama would be a good president by a 56 percent to 28 percent margin with 31 percent of his supporters citing his fresh ideas and 19 percent citing his intelligence. Democrats say Clinton would be a good president by a 49 percent to 43 percent with 48 percent of her supporters pointing to her experience and 27 percent to her intelligence. But again, this poll mirrors a finding about Clinton that has shown up in national polls as well. Of her critics, 25 percent say she is dishonest. USAToday/Gallup had did a March 14-16 survey in which 44 percent considered her honest and trustworthy while 53 percent did not.

Read our round-up of other state-by-state general election match-ups.

Read the full NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll and the stories about it from the Journal and NBC

The controversy over the racially-charged statements of Barack Obama's ex-pastor, Jeremiah Wright, have not hurt him in his match-ups against Hillary Clinton or John McCain, according to an NBC News/ Wall Street Journal poll conducted March 24-25. But even though the Journal's headline was "Pastor Flap Hasn't Hurt Obama," the numbers did show that 55 percent of all voters were disturbed by Wright's statements and 32 percent of those who saw Obama's speech on race were "dissatisfied with (the) explanation of association with Reverend Wright."

In the Democratic race, Clinton and Obama are even at 45 percent each. The last NBC News/Journal poll two weeks ago had Clinton ahead 47 percent to 43 percent. The bad news for Clinton is that more voters view her negatively than positively - 48 percent somewhat or very negative, 37 percent very or somewhat positive. Two weeks ago, 45 percent viewed her positively, and 43 percent viewed her negatively. Obama is viewed positively by 49 percent of voters and negatively by 32 percent.

Although the economy is tanking (no pun intended if that made you think of the cost of gasoline), Americans say by a 49 percent to 42 percent margin that they favor protecting the environment even if it's at the cost of economic growth, according to a Gallup poll conducted March 6-9. The margin of error is 3 percent. That represents a steep drop from the 55 percent to 37 percent pro-environment stance of Americans a year ago, but Gallup says given "record prices (of gasoline) and the general perception that the U.S. economy is experiencing a recession, it is somewhat surprising that Americans continue to say protection of the environment should be given priority."

John McCain enjoys double-digit leads over both Democratic presidential candidates in the key swing state of Missouri with its 11 electoral votes, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted March 24. Mccain leadds Hillary Clinton 50 percent to 41 percent and Barack Obama by 53 percent to 38 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. While the McCain-Obama result is almost the same as a SurveyUSA poll conducted March 14-16, it differs on the Clinton-McCain match-up, where the difference between the two was within the margin of error. Rasmussen's February poll had McCain running evenly with both Democrats.

Forty-two percent of voters say the economy is the top issue and 17 percent of them rate the economy as good or excellent. Sixteen percent say Iraq is the top issue.

For our round-up of match-ups for 29 other states, click here.

A significant chunk of Democratic voters would defect to John McCain if their choice for nominee doesn't get the nod, according to a Gallup Poll conducted March 7-22. Twenty-eight percent of Hillary Clinton supporters said they'd vote for McCain in the general election if she isn't the nominee, while 19 percent of Barack Obama's supporters said they would bolt if their man doesn't get the nod.

Gallup appears to caution against reading too much into these findings at this time. It notes that "some threat of deserting the party always takes place as party nomination battles are waged, and this threat can dissipate," especially as efforts begin to rebuild party unity after the nominee is chosen.

SurveyUSA conducted a poll March 14-16 in which they asked voters if they would stick with John Mccain, Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton no matter who they picked as a running mate, or whether they would not be sure until they knew who the VP pick was. The pollster said that between 29 percent and 40 percent - depending on the state - said they were not sure if they'd vote for McCain without knowing his Number Two, while the ranges for Clinton and Obama are lower, (between 17 percent and 25 percent for Clinton, and between 12 percent and 28 percent for Obama). The SurveyUSA site has the state-by-state tables.

You can count on Gallup to have a poll for all seasons and all reasons, and here's one for those of you glued to the stories of sexual strayings by elected officials like former New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer, not to mention current New York Gov. David Paterson.

Noting the recent revelations about Spitzer, Paterson and Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick (proving that this is not just a New York thing), Gallup asked in a March 14-16 survey whether a respondent would forgive his or her spouse for marital infidelity and 54 percent said they would not. Of those, 26 percent said probably not, and 38 percent said not on your life. Ten percent would definitely forgive a wayward spouse, and 23 percent said they probably would. In poll-speak, most spouses don't allow much for a margin of error.

Now, if you want to know what that all means, Gallup says that "hypothetically, only 36% say they would publicly stand by their spouse at the podium if that spouse were an elected official who had to face the media to answer questions about an affair." Sixty-one percent would effectively say, "Forget that 'for better or worse' stuff."

As on many issues surveyed by Gallup, Americans are pretty divided on which kind of cheating is worse. Thirty-five percent of all Americans said that paying for a prostitute is worst, thirty-four percent frowned more on a romantic affair and 27 percent "volunteered" that both were equally bad. There is a gender gap on this question. Forty percent of men disapproved most of a romantic affair versus 32 percent who disliked the prostitute scenario the most, while 38 percent of women condemned the prostitute option compared to 32 percent who were most bothered by a romantic affair.

Hillary Clinton is leading Barack Obama in Pennsylvania by 49 percent to 39 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted March 24. That compares to the 51 percent to 38 percent lead she held in Rasmussen's March 12 survey and the 51 percent to 35 percent margin over Obama reported in a Franklin & Marshall poll conducted March 11-16. Pennsylvania, which votes April 22, hazs 188 delegates.

Rasmussen said that 87 percent of Pennsylvania Democrats had seen, heard or read about the controversial statements of Obama's ex-pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Of those 47 percent said it made no difference to their vote, 36 percent said the controversy made them less likely to vote for Obama and 15 percent said it made them more likely to support him. Thirty-eight percent said they were somewhat or very concerned about Obama's relationship with Wright. A CBS News poll last week reported that 65 percent of those surveyed said the Wright relationship had no effect on how they viewed Obama.

On the economy, only 4 percent rated it as good or excellent.

See these stories on the race in Pennsylvania:

• Clinton: Wright 'Would Not Have Been My Pastor' Pittsburgh Tribune Review
• High-Stakes Race Fuels Party Switching Scranton Times Tribune
• In Pennsylvania, A Sense Of Disenfranchisement As Primary Nears New York Times
• Obama Plays Catch-Up In Pennsylvania Time

Barack Obama has taken A Great Leap Forward in North Carolina by opening up a 55 percent to 34 percent lead over Hillary Clinton, according to Public Policy Polling which conducted its survey on March 24. The margin of error is 3.8 percent. This is a startling rebound from PPP’s March 17 poll when Clinton had closed to within a point of Obama in the battle for this state’s 134 delegates. Dean Debnam of PPP attributed Obama’s surge to his recent visit to the state and “openly taking on some of the controversies swirling around his campaign.”

The poll found that if former candidate John Edwards decided to endorse Clinton that it would make no difference to 57 percent of voters. Thirty-one percent said it would make them less likely to vote for Clinton and only 12 percent said it would make them more likely to support her. Obama has leads in the 20 point range among both men and women.

Forty-seven percent named the economy and jobs as the top campaign issue followed by 26 percent who cited Iraq. White voters, who made up 59 percent of the sample, favored Clinton by 47 percent to 40 percent while black voters, comprising 34 percent of the sample, supported Obama by 80 percent to 14 percent.

Somehow, Poll Tracker missed a Quinnipiac University poll published on Friday showing New York firmly in the column no matter which Democrat is nominated. The poll, conducted March 16-18, said Hillary Clinton leads John McCain 50 percent to 40 percent while Barack Obama bests him 49 percent to 38 percent. The margin of error is 2.5 percent. A previous SurveyUSA poll, conducted March 14-16, had Clinton ahead 54 percent to 41 percent while Obama led 52 percent to 44 percent.

Quinnipiac noted “a huge racial split” if the race were to be between Obama and McCain, with McCain leading among white voters 47 percent to 41 percent, while Obama was ahead among black voters 86 percent to 6 percent. Clinton runs evenly with McCain among white voters and leads among black voters 70 percent to 16 percent. SurveyUSA poll had McCain leading Obama among whites by 51 percent to 40 percent, and Obama leading among black voters 85 percent to 9 percent. SurveyUSA’s numbers for Clinton were similar to those of Quinnipiac.

Maurice Carroll, head of Quinnipiac’s Polling Institute, said, “Those racial and gender breakdowns are troubling for the Democrats. If Obama trails among white voters in New York, one of the most liberal states in the nation, what does that say about his chances in other states?”

Forty-seven percent of voters named economy as the top issue in the campaign and, asked about their own financial situations, 18 percent said they are “getting ahead,” 64 percent said they are “holding steady” and 17 percent said they are “falling behind.”

Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are back to a statistical tie in the Democratic nomination battle, with Obama ahead 47 percent to 46 percent, according to the Gallup daily tracking poll conducted March 18-22. The margin of error is 3 points. Clinton had led by as much as 7 points earlier last week, then Obama creeped back in the last daily survey to lead by 3.

Jewish Democratic voters tilt slightly to Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama, leads him by a big margin over Catholic Democrats while Democrats who say they are Protestant divide about evenly, according to a Gallup poll conducted March 1-22. Among Jewish Democrats, Clinton leads Obama 48 percent to 43 percent with 8 percent expressing no opinion. The margin of error is 6 percent. (The New York Times recently did a piece on Obama's efforts to court the Jewish vote). Catholic Democrats favored Clinton 56 percent to 37 percent, with a 2 point margin of error, while Protestants favor Obama 47 percent to 44 percent, with a 2 point margin of error. Democrats with no religious preference favor Obama 54 percent to 40 percent.

There are new general election match-ups out today for North Carolina and Nevada, bringing the number of state polls we have collected in our round-up to 30 states, with a total of 300 electoral votes, when older surveys are eliminated for states where there are newer polls. Here is a summary, hardly scientific, of where things stand by this measure, particularly since California and New York skew the result in a sample of less than all 50 states:

John McCain has leads beyond the margin of error over both Democrats in 8 states, plus one state (Ohio) where he beats Barack Obama but is in a statistical tie with Hillary Clinton. The 8 states account for 93 delegates. McCain's states: Kansas, Arkansas, Alabama, Missouri, Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee and North Carolina. He is behind by a statistically significant margin in Oregon, Washington state and New Mexico but the numbers are close enough for the races to be called competitive. He is in a statistical tie in 4 states with both Democrats. States where he is in a tie with either Democrat are Virginia, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Nevada.

Obama and Hillary Clinton have clear leads in the same 6 states with 115 delegates. They are: California, New York, Oregon, Washington state, New Mexico and Connecticut. However, Obama leads McCain in Iowa while Clinton runs statistically even, so he has 122 delegates to her 115. Obama is roughly tied with McCain in 6 other states while Clintomn runs fairly evenly in 8.

To check out our round-up state-by-state, read on after the jump.

Most Americans believe gasoline prices will increase 21 percent this year and 63 percent say the price jumps so far have already caused them financial hardship, according to a Gallup poll conducted March 14-16. Forty-nine percent say prices will rise to the $3.76 to $4 per gallon range and 19 percent fear they will go over $4. the Lundberg Survey of 5,000 gasoline stations reported yesterday that prices rose nearly 7 cents over the past two weeks to reach an all-time inflation-adjusted high of $3.26 per gallon of self-serve regular.

The Democratic Party has increased its margin in voters who identify with it rather than Republicans, and going into this year's election has increased its advantage among independent voters and in swing states, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted during the first two months of this year.

Pew says voters now favor the Democrats by a "decidedly larger margin" than the previous two election cycles.

Voters who identify themselves as Independents actually occupy first place at 37 percent, followed by Democrats at 36 percent and Republicans at 27 percent. That's a 3 point gain for Democrats since 2004 and a 6 point drop for Republicans, putting them at their lowest ebb in 16 years.

The Democrats have added to that an edge among self-described independents. In 2004, independents broke roughly evenly among the two parties with 12 percent favoring Democrats and 11 percent the Republicans. But now, 15 percent lean Democratic compared to 10 percent who lean Republican. That means Democrats have a 51 percent to 37 percent margin if the leaners are combined with those who outright identify themselves as being for one party or the other.

However, Pew cautions against automatically interpreting these results as a Democratic advantage in the presidential race. "There is not a one-to-one correspondence between the balance of party identification in a given state and the electoral outcome in presidential elections," it said, a face that is evident in state-by-state and national polls.

SurveyUSA released an avalanche of polls the other day matching up John McCain against Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama state-by-state, so we’re just digesting all of these now.

In every state, the economy is cited as the top issue – as it is in national polls – and in nearly all of these polls, Obama and Clinton best McCain on this subject. The same is true when it comes to Iraq which is usually the runner-up among most important issues. McCain trounces both Clinton and Obama by huge margins among voters who care most about fighting terrorism, but the number of voters who cite that as the top issue are most often in single digits in the samples. In some states, McCain is faring significantly better against Obama than Clinton among Hispanic voters, although Obama’s leads are still sizable. Generally, McCain does poorly in these polls among voters in the 18-to-34 age group, although the results for other age groups are more mixed.

All of these surveys were conducted March 14-16. We’ll start off with some of the big ones – California, New York and Virginia – and then, as a bonus, add the state surveys by SurveyUSA and other pollsters that we’ve been tracking. Find it all on the jump page

After being as much as 7 points behind Hillary Clinton earlier in the week, Barack Obama has now edged past her, 48 percent to 45 percent, according to today's Gallup daily tracking poll conducted March 19-21. Although the difference matches the 3 percent margin of error, today's result does mark a turnaround from Obama who had been hurt in recent weeks by questions about his experience and the controversy over his ex-pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

Gallup said: "Obama's campaign clearly suffered in recent days from negative press, mostly centering around his association with the controversial Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Perhaps as a result, Clinton moved into the lead in Gallup's Wednesday release, covering March 16-18 polling. But Obama has now edged back ahead of Clinton due to a strong showing for him in Friday night's polling, perhaps in response to the endorsement he received from well-respected New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, a former rival for the nomination."

In its general election match-ups, Gallup said both Democrats inched closer to McCain in its March 17-21 polling, with McCain ahead of Obama by 46 percent to 44 percent and Obama by 47 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error is 2 points.

One nugget we had meant to bring to you from the Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll that was released Thursday.

Question 9: Do you think you would seriously consider voting for third party candidate Ralph Nader over one of the other major party candidates in November?

• All voters: 14 percent "yes," 77 percent "no," 9 percent "don't know."
• Democrats: 10 percent "yes," 81 percent "no," 9 percent "don't know."
• Republicans: 14 percent "yes," 79 percent "no," 8 percent "don't know."
• Independents: 21 percent "yes," 69 percent "no," 10 percent "don't know."

Republicans for Nader???

Rasmussen Reports has put together a "Balance of Power Calculator," based in large part on polling it has done in many states, It puts the Democrats ahead of Republicans 200 votes to 189 when states scored "safe" or "likely" for either party are combined. When "leaning" states are added, Democrats lead 247 to 229, with 270 required to elect.

Here's how Rasmussen got to its totals:

• Safely Democratic: California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New York (31), Rhode Island (4), and Vermont (3).
• Likely Democratic: New Jersey (15), Oregon (7), Washington (11) and Wisconsin (10).
• Leans Democratic: Iowa (7), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), and Pennsylvania (21).
• Toss-Up: Colorado (9), Michigan (17), Missouri (11), Nevada (5), and Ohio (20).
• Leans Republican: Florida (27), Virginia (13).
• Likely Republican: Arkansas (6) and North Carolina (15).
• Safely Republican: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5) and Wyoming (3).

CQ Politics has been keeping a round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups, including by Rasmussen, and you can find it here beginning with Rasmussen's poll today on Arkansas.

Hillary Clinton trails John McCain in a general election match-up in her home state of Arkansas and Barack Obama is not even close, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted March 18. McCain leads Clinton 50 percent to 43 percent and Obama by 59 percent to 30 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain far outpaces Clinton in favorability ratings, among voters by 66 percent to 50 percent. The economy is regarded as the top issue, with 48 percent of voters citing it, and among them, just 14 percent rate the economy good or excellent.

Rasmussen yesterday released a poll on Georgia conducted March 20 showing McCain leading Obama 53 percent to 40 percent and Clinton 54 percent to 34 percent. Georgia voters also named the economy as the most important issue (45 percent) and only 15 percent said the economy was good or excellent.

Nationally, the number of Americans who rate the economy good or excellent stands at 17 percent, according to today's Gallup daiy tracking poll.

These polls, taken together with those in other border and southern states, shows some serious, if somewhat predictable, weaknesses for either Democrat in those regions and particularly raises a question about the proposition Obama has tried to put forth that he can make inroads in states that Democrats have long given up as lost.

See our list of other state-by-state matchups after the jump.

CBS News re-interviewed voters it had canvassed during the controversy over the rhetoric of Barack Obama's ex-pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, before Obama gave his Tuesday speech in Philadelphia on race. That poll said sixty-five percent said Wright's oratory made no difference in how they viewed Obama and 30 percent said the story made them look less favorably on Obama. Its new poll said that 69 percent of voters who have been following this story said Obama did a good job in his Philadelphia speech on race relations while 20 percent thought he did a poor job.

Seventy percent of voters said the controversy over Wright would make no difference in how they vote. But Obama did suffer a decline in the number of voters who believed he would unite the country - from 67 percent in February to 52 percent now.

While the controversy over Barack Obama's ex-pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, has taken a toll on his campaign that has yet to be overcome, two polls today - from Gallup and Rasmussen Reports -suggested that Obama's Philadelphia speech may have helped him reverse some of the damage, although there is still a significant number of voters left with doubts.

Hillary Clinton's lead over Obama, which had grown to as much as 7 points this week, has now dropped back to a statistically insignificant 47 percent to 45 percent, according to the Gallup daily tracking poll. The poll was conducted March 18-20 and has a 3 point margin of error. Gallup said: "The surge in Democrats' preference for Clinton that Gallup detected earlier in the week has started to move out of the three-day rolling average, and the race is back to a near tie. It is possible that Obama's aggressive efforts to defuse the Wright story, including a major speech on race on March 11, have been effective." Still, Gallup cautioned, "Obama has yet to recover fully from the apparent damage done by the Wright controversy. It was only one week ago that Obama led the race by a significant six-point margin over Clinton, 50% to 44%."

A Rasmussen Reports survey, conducted March 19-20, said that among the 84 percent of likely voters who had seen or heard at least some portion of Obama's speech, 51 percent rated it good, 26 percent said it was fair and 21 percent said it was poor. The partisan breakdown had 67 percent of Democrats saying it was good compared to 53 percent of unaffiliated voters and 31 percent of Republicans. Along the racial divide, 86 percent of black voters called it good compared to 45 percent of white voters.

Rasmussen said 56 percent of voters said they remained somewhat or very concerned about Obama's relationship with Wright despite the speech. When Fox News asked, in the poll it released yesterday, whether that relationship "made you have doubts about Obama, or not," 54 percent answered "no" compared to 35 percent who said "yes." About three-quarters of Republicans, slightly more than half of unaffiliated voters and slightly less than half of Democrats said they still felt that concern. In the Fox news survey, 66 percent of Republicans said the Wright connection still made them have doubts about Obama compared to 27 percent for independents and 26 percent for Democrats.

John McCain is running far ahead of either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama in the deep South state of Alabama, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted March 14-16. McCain beats Clinton 56 percent to 38 percent, while leading Obama 62 percent to 35 percent. Alabama has 9 electoral votes. McCain leads both Democrats in all age groups by double digits. 45 percent of the sample identifies themselves as Evangelicals and McCain leads Clinton there by 67 percent to 29 percent and Obama by 76 percent to 21 percent. The economy is identified as the top issue by 35 percent of voters and while Clinton runs about even with McCain among them, McCain leads Obama 54 percent to 42 percent. Clinton leads McCain by 2-to-1 among the 13 percent of voters who cited Iraq as the top issue but the gap between him and Obama is within the polls 4.2 percent margin of error. Terrorism was cited by 11 percent as the top issue and, as in some other states polls, McCain leads both potential foes by huge margins. The same is true on the issue of immigration, named as the most important by 13 percent of the sample.

Go to the jump page to see our wrap-up of other state match-ups.

Most Americans - 72 percent -- say they have heard about the controversial oratory of Rev. Jeremiah Wright, Barack Obama's ex-pastor, but more than half said they do not believe Obama shares his views, according to a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll conducted March 18-19.

Fifty-four percent of voters said Obama's association with Wright did not make them have doubts about him, but that left 35 percent of voters who did have doubts after Wright's comments became known. Breaking the numbers down by party affiliation, Democrats said they did not believe Obama shared Wright's views by 63 percent to 17 percent, Republicans by 46 percent to 36 percent, and independents by 62 percent to 20 percent.

Black voters said by a 72 percent to 15 percent margin that Obama did not share Wright's views compared to 55 percent to 25 percent among white voters. The same difference across racial lines registered on the question of whether the controversy prompted doubts about Obama. Black voters said no by a 90 percent to 2 percent margin, while white voters said no by a 49 percent to 40 percent margin.

In the Democratic horse race, Clinton leads Obama by a statistically insignificant 40 percent to 38 percent margin. The margin of error is 5 percent. That differs from Gallup's daily tracking poll which has Clinton ahead by a statistically significant but modest 5 points.

Although Hillary Clinton continues to hold a statistically meaningful lead over Barack Obama, Obama's Tuesday speech on race appears to have helped him limit the damage from the controversy over racially divisive remarks by his ex-pastor, according to Gallup's daily tracking poll. Clinton had a 49 percent to 42 percent in yesterday's poll, but Obama narrowed that today to 48 to 43 percent. The poll was conducted March 17-19 and has a 3 point margin of error. Gallup said, "While Tuesday night polling showed no immediate benefit for Obama, the Wednesday results were more favorable to him."

Hillary Clinton has a big lead over Barack Obama in West. Virginia which holds its primary May 13, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted March 13. She’s ahead 55 percent to 27 percent. West Virginia Democrats believe by a 48 percent to 31 percent margin that Clinton would be the stronger general election candidate. The top issue here, like everywhere else, is the economy, cited as number one by 51 percent of likely primary voters.