John McCain is running strongly in three states that have been solidly Democratic in recent presidential elections and a particular surprise is New Jersey where, a month ago, Hillary Clinton had a double-digit lead, according to a new round of state-by-state general election match-ups.

The series of polls by Rasmussen Reports, which included Michigan and Washington State, also underscored what most other national and state polling has found – high negatives for Clinton as far as favorability ratings. McCain often scores the highest favorability ratings, while Obama comes out on the positive side, but by lesser margins.

A majority of Democrats and Republicans believe that Barack Obama has a better chance of defeating John McCain in November than does Hillary Clinton, according to a Gallup Panel survey conducted March 24-27. Democrats say 59 percent to 30 percent that Obama has a better chance against McCain and, on the question of who McCain would have an easier time beating, Republicans said Clinton by a 64 percent to 22 percent margin. Gallup says the poll also shows "there is a fairly widely held belief among party supporters -- including a plurality of Clinton supporters -- that the ongoing campaign is hurting their chances of winning in November."

Barack Obama has a statistically significant lead over Hillary Clinton for the fourth straight time in the Gallup daily tracking poll just released. He runs ahead by 51 percent to 43 percent, a point less than yesterdat, but still beyond the 3 point margin of error. the poll was conducted March 28-30. There wasn't any change in the national match-ups against John McCain where both Democrats remain in a statistical tie with him.

Two new polls show that Barack Obama continues to maintain a double-digit lead over Hillary Clinton in the upcoming North Carolina Primary.

An American Research Group poll released today shows a 13 percentage point lead for Barack Obama among Democrats in North Carolina. He leads Hillary Rodham Clinton 51 percent to 38 percent, and has a solid margin among men, women and African-American voters. There is no appreciable difference in his lead among the 18-49 age group and the 50 and older group, getting 51 percent of support with each cohort in the latest statewide poll. Clinton still has an advantage among white voters, currently sitting at 49 percent support to Obama's 37 percent. Twenty-two percent of respondents said that they would never vote for Obama in the state's primary, and 30 percent of repsondents said the same about Clinton. Results are based on responses from a random sample of 600 likely Democratic primary voters in North Carolina. The poll was conducted March 29-30 and the margin of error is 4 percentage points.

In the latest Public Policy Polling survey conducted March 29-30, Obama leads 54 percent to 36 percent. PPP’s Dean Debnam noted that Obama runs strongly among voters who never have participated in a primary, leading among that group by 60 percent to 32 percent. The economy and jobs are cited as the most important issue by 48 percent of likely Democratic voters with Iraq second at 25 percent. Clinton has a 53 percent to 36 percent lead among white voters (57 percent of the sample) while Obama leads among black voters (36 percent of the sample) 81 percent to 11 percent.

The results of these polls track with an InsiderAdvantage poll released last week.

Gallup polled employees asking whether their employer currently is hiring, letting workers go or not making personnel changes and concluded that net new hiring is down since February. Although today's numbers have dropped only a little since last month — down 0.3 percentage points — expectations of seasonal job surges were not met. The same poll had a much larger 2.1-point drop from January to February. Regional breakdowns of the Gallup data indicate similar trends to other data on the current economic environment: the East has been particularly hard-hit by job loss in the wake of financial crises. This relatively new "net new hiring" poll by Gallup is conducted from interviews with no fewer than 1,000 adults nationwide each day. The economic questions analyzed in this report are asked of a random half-sample of respondents, and the results reported are based on combined data of more than 8,000 interviews in January, February, and March. For results based on the samples, the margin of error is ±1 percentage point.

The Rasmussen Consumer Index, a consumer confidence index which was aslo covered by Poll Tracker in January shows relatively stable but consistently low consumer confidence. Scores have fallen to 74.3 in the most recent index released today. The lowest score ever recorded by Rasmussen was 73.0 earlier this month. Relatedly, Rasmussen's Small Business Watch showed a record low for small business owner confidence, and its Investor Index shows consistent declines.

Rasmussen Consumer Index and Investor Index questions are asked in telephone surveys of 500 adults and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The baseline for the Index was established at 100.0 in October 2001.

Barack Obama has opened his biggest lead so far this year over Hillary Clinton in Gallup's daily tracking poll. Obama bests Clinton 52 percent to 42 percent in the survey conducted March 27-29. The last time one of the Democratic contenders had a double-digit lead over the other was in a Feb. 4-6 survey when Clinton was ahead by 11 points. The margin of error is 3 points. In the general election match-ups: not much change. McCain is ahead of Clinton by 4 points and Obama by 3 points, with a 2 percent margin of error.

In our latest round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups, we'll start with a new poll out today on Wisconsin.

Barack Obama and John McCain are running neck-and-neck in that state but McCain is ahead of Hillary Clinton by a large margin, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted March 26. McCain leads Obama 48 percent to 46 percent but outpaces Clinton by 50 percent to 39 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. There is one marked difference in this poll compared to one SurveyUSA did March 14-16 which is that while it showed a tight McCain-Obama race, it also said the same was true of Clinton-McCain which may be due to a difference of methodology or slippage in support for Clinton since mid-March. However, Rasmussen’s late February poll also had Clinton significantly behind. Clinton’s negatives, as in other polls, are high: she’s on the wrong end of the favorability ratings by 55 percent to 39 percent while McCain and Obama both enjoy positive ratings.

The most important campaign issue for Wisconsin voters is the economy (39 percent) and only 19 percent of them give the economy a good or excellent rating. Twenty-two percent cite Iraq.

Read on after the jump to see our round-up of other state-by-state general election match-ups.

John McCain is putting more distance between himself and his potential Democratic rivals in Virginia, according to a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted March 27. McCain leads Barack Obama 52 percent to 41 percent and Hillary Clinton by a whopping 58 percent to 36 percent. The margin of error is 4,5 percent. The previous Rasmussen poll last month had McCain leading Obama by a more modest 5 points and Clinton by 10 points. But Rasmussen’s findings were even more starkly different when compared to a SurveyUSA poll conducted March 14-16 which showed both Democrats running evenly with McCain, suggesting that perhaps traditionally-Republican Virginia was becoming a “purple” state open to Democratic inroads.

Following trends in other national and state-by-state polls, Clinton suffers from high negatives with 61 percent viewing her unfavorably versus 37 percent who give her positive ratings. McCain’s favorable-to unfavorable ratio is 64 percent to 34 percent while Obama’s is 53 percent to 47 percent. Thirty-eight percent of voters choose the economy as the top campaign issue and only 17 percent rate the economy as good or excellent. Fifty-seven percent of Virginia’s voters believe the U.S. is winning in Iraq which Rasmussen notes is higher than the national average, possibly contributing McCain’s strength in this poll.

Here’s one we missed this week. An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted March 26 had Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton 49 percent to 34 percent in North Carolina, which votes May 6, Seventeen percent were undecided. The margin of error is 5 percent. Matt Towery of InsiderAdvantage said, “Most troubling for Clinton is that the trends in our polling of North Carolina show that a modest but significant portion of whites are drifting from Clinton back into the ‘undecided’ column. Twenty percent of whites are undecided.“ He added that the controversy over Obama’s ex-pastor had not alienated enough whites to significantly change that dynamic. This poll’s resuls generally square with one conducted March 24 by Public Policy Polling.

Barack Obama has a 50 percent to 42 percent lead over Hillary Clinton in Gallup’s new daily tracking poll conducted March 25-27. The margin of error is 3 percent. Gallup notes that this is the first time Obama has opened a statistically significant lead over Clinton since before the controversy over his ex-pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright. As we’ve noted in recent CQ Politics stories, the tide seems to have shifted to Obama after he underwent a brutal first half of March, and now polls are signaling some significant weaknesses for Clinton.

In general election match-ups, for which voters were sampled March 22 and March 24-27, John McCain leads Clinton 48 percent to 44 percent and Obama by 46 percent to 44 percent. The margin of error is 2 percent.

Rasmussen Reports' daily tracking poll shows some different results. Obama leads Clinton by a statistically insignificant 2 points. McCain leads both Democrats, Clinton by 49 percent to 41 percent and Obama by 49 percent to 42 percent. As other polls have been showing this week, Clinton is suffering from some pronounced negatives with 53 percent viewing her as unfavorable against 45 percent who are favorable.

See how these compare to other recent national polls.

In the latest poll in Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 51 percent to 39 percent, according to an American Research Group survey conducted March 26-27. The margin of error is 4 percent. Clinton’s lead is up one point from an ARG survey conducted earlier this month. The results are consistent with recent polls by Rasmussen Reports and Franklin & Marshall.

The gender gap is large here with Obama leading 51 percent to 38 percent among men voters and Clinton by 61 percent to 30 percent among women voters. Clinton leads by 2-to-1 among white voters who make up 79 percent of the sample, while Obama leads by more than 7-to-1 among black voters who comprise 17 percent of those Democrats likely to show up at the polls. Obama’s normal advantage among younger voters doesn’t apply here, but Clinton’s edge among older ones does – she leads by almost 2-to-1 among voters over 50. Thirteen percent of Democrats say they would not vote for Clinton if she got the nomination, and 23 percent said they would not vote for Obama. For a national perspective on voters who might sit out if their candidate lost, see yesterday’s CNN poll.

Check out this coverage of the race in Pennsylvania:

• Pennsylvania Governor To Help Send Obama Message To Voters And Superdelegates Philadelphia Inquirer
• How Clintons Are Courting A Pennsylvania Superdelegate Harrisburg Patriot Times

Gallup says in a new report this morning that the number of Americans worried “a great deal” about the economy has surged 20 percent in the last year, moving that issue up from sixth to first place on a list of 12 issues of concern on which Gallup polls. The other issue of concern to show a double-digit increase – 11 percent – was unemployment. The survey was conduced March 6-9.

Unsurprisingly, a lot of the campaign coverage in this morning's papers centered around economic issues:

• The Campaign And Mortgage Crisis: Intervention Or A Bailout? New York Times
• As Candidates Warm to Bush Tax Cuts, Economists Warn of Long-Term Effect Washington Post
• Economy Emerges As Central Campaign Issue Los Angeles Times

Close behind the economy was health care about which 58 percent also said they worried a great deal. Crime and violence was cited by 49 percent, energy at 40 percent, Social Security at 46 percent, drug use at 43 percent, while the environment, illegal immigration and terrorism registered at 40 percent.

Noting partisan differences on these issues, Gallup said Republicans were more concerned than Democrats on illegal immigration and terrorism, while Democrats expressed more concern about healthcare, energy, Social Security, the environment, hunger/homelessness, unemployment, and race relations.

A CNN/Opinion Research poll, conducted March 21-23, said 16 percent of Hillary Clinton's supporters would sit out the November election if Obama was the nominee and an equal number of Obama supporters said they would too if it's the other way around. CNN added the cautionary note that "polls are just snapshots of how people feel at the moment. If the Democrats can come together and agree on a nominee, most of the ill will could be just a memory by November."

A Pew Research poll earlier today explored the question of how many supporters of each would vote for John McCain if their candidate didn't get the nomination. Pew said 32 percent of Clinton backers would support McCain if Obama is the nominee. Twenty-eight percent of Obama supporters say the same. Pew noted that many of these defections come from independentys who lean Democratic and that when the question is limited to Democrats, the figures is 25 percent for Clinton supporters and 20 percent for Obama supporters.

Pew Research has a new survey out today that underscores a lot of findings that have been coming out in other state and national polls this week:

• The controversy over Barack Obama's ex-pastor has not hurt Obama's campaign.
• Obama has a much more positive image than Hillary Clinton among voters and voters have doubts about Clinton's honesty and authenticity
• Americans are as negative about the economy as they were during the big recession of the early 1990s.
• Dissatisfaction with the direction of the country is at its highest in any Pew survey since 1993.

However, Pew differs from yesterday's NBC News/ Wall Street Journal poll in the state of the Democratic race. The Pew Survey, conducted March 19-22, says Obama is ahead of Clinton 49 percent to 39 percent, with a 5.5 percent margin of error where yesterday's NBC/Journal offering had them deadlocked at 45 percent each. That poll was conducted March 24-25. Gallup's daily tracking poll, conducted March 24-26 has Obama ahead 48 percent to 44 percent with a 3 point margin of error.

Barack Obama leads John McCain in delegate-rich California by 49 percent to 40 percent among likely voters while Hillary Clinton holds a bare lead over McCain of 46 percent to 43 percent, according to a Public Policy Institute of California poll conducted March 11-18. the margin of error is 3 percent. This contrasts markedly with a March14-16 poll by SurveyUSA showing Obama and Clinton both with comfortable margins over McCain.

Obama’s favorability rating is 61 positive percent to 34 percent negative, McCain’s is 49 percent to 45 percent and, has it has been showing up in other state and national polls , those with unfavorable opinions of Clinton outnumber the favorables 52 percent to 45 percent.

Barack Obama has a 52 percent to 35 percent lead over John McCain in Connecticut, while Hillary Clinton leads McCain by only 45 percent to 42 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted March 19-24. The margin of error is 2.4 percent. These results are similar to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted in mid-March. A good deal of Obama’s strength comes from independents who favor him 48 percent to 35 percent and voters under 45 who back him by 63 percent to 35 percent. Obama also has a 9 point lead among white voters.

The interesting thing about this poll is the extent to which it mirrors what the national polls are saying about the challenges facing Clinton.

Reflecting the national findings of an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released yesterday, Clinton suffers in Connecticut from high negatives, with 47 percent of voters viewing her unfavorably to 46 percent who view her favorably. Obama’s favorability rating is 59 to 24 percent and McCain’s is 52 percent to 31 percent.

Democrats say Obama would be a good president by a 56 percent to 28 percent margin with 31 percent of his supporters citing his fresh ideas and 19 percent citing his intelligence. Democrats say Clinton would be a good president by a 49 percent to 43 percent with 48 percent of her supporters pointing to her experience and 27 percent to her intelligence. But again, this poll mirrors a finding about Clinton that has shown up in national polls as well. Of her critics, 25 percent say she is dishonest. USAToday/Gallup had did a March 14-16 survey in which 44 percent considered her honest and trustworthy while 53 percent did not.

Read our round-up of other state-by-state general election match-ups.

Read the full NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll and the stories about it from the Journal and NBC

The controversy over the racially-charged statements of Barack Obama's ex-pastor, Jeremiah Wright, have not hurt him in his match-ups against Hillary Clinton or John McCain, according to an NBC News/ Wall Street Journal poll conducted March 24-25. But even though the Journal's headline was "Pastor Flap Hasn't Hurt Obama," the numbers did show that 55 percent of all voters were disturbed by Wright's statements and 32 percent of those who saw Obama's speech on race were "dissatisfied with (the) explanation of association with Reverend Wright."

In the Democratic race, Clinton and Obama are even at 45 percent each. The last NBC News/Journal poll two weeks ago had Clinton ahead 47 percent to 43 percent. The bad news for Clinton is that more voters view her negatively than positively - 48 percent somewhat or very negative, 37 percent very or somewhat positive. Two weeks ago, 45 percent viewed her positively, and 43 percent viewed her negatively. Obama is viewed positively by 49 percent of voters and negatively by 32 percent.

Although the economy is tanking (no pun intended if that made you think of the cost of gasoline), Americans say by a 49 percent to 42 percent margin that they favor protecting the environment even if it's at the cost of economic growth, according to a Gallup poll conducted March 6-9. The margin of error is 3 percent. That represents a steep drop from the 55 percent to 37 percent pro-environment stance of Americans a year ago, but Gallup says given "record prices (of gasoline) and the general perception that the U.S. economy is experiencing a recession, it is somewhat surprising that Americans continue to say protection of the environment should be given priority."

John McCain enjoys double-digit leads over both Democratic presidential candidates in the key swing state of Missouri with its 11 electoral votes, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted March 24. Mccain leadds Hillary Clinton 50 percent to 41 percent and Barack Obama by 53 percent to 38 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. While the McCain-Obama result is almost the same as a SurveyUSA poll conducted March 14-16, it differs on the Clinton-McCain match-up, where the difference between the two was within the margin of error. Rasmussen's February poll had McCain running evenly with both Democrats.

Forty-two percent of voters say the economy is the top issue and 17 percent of them rate the economy as good or excellent. Sixteen percent say Iraq is the top issue.

For our round-up of match-ups for 29 other states, click here.

A significant chunk of Democratic voters would defect to John McCain if their choice for nominee doesn't get the nod, according to a Gallup Poll conducted March 7-22. Twenty-eight percent of Hillary Clinton supporters said they'd vote for McCain in the general election if she isn't the nominee, while 19 percent of Barack Obama's supporters said they would bolt if their man doesn't get the nod.

Gallup appears to caution against reading too much into these findings at this time. It notes that "some threat of deserting the party always takes place as party nomination battles are waged, and this threat can dissipate," especially as efforts begin to rebuild party unity after the nominee is chosen.

SurveyUSA conducted a poll March 14-16 in which they asked voters if they would stick with John Mccain, Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton no matter who they picked as a running mate, or whether they would not be sure until they knew who the VP pick was. The pollster said that between 29 percent and 40 percent - depending on the state - said they were not sure if they'd vote for McCain without knowing his Number Two, while the ranges for Clinton and Obama are lower, (between 17 percent and 25 percent for Clinton, and between 12 percent and 28 percent for Obama). The SurveyUSA site has the state-by-state tables.

You can count on Gallup to have a poll for all seasons and all reasons, and here's one for those of you glued to the stories of sexual strayings by elected officials like former New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer, not to mention current New York Gov. David Paterson.

Noting the recent revelations about Spitzer, Paterson and Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick (proving that this is not just a New York thing), Gallup asked in a March 14-16 survey whether a respondent would forgive his or her spouse for marital infidelity and 54 percent said they would not. Of those, 26 percent said probably not, and 38 percent said not on your life. Ten percent would definitely forgive a wayward spouse, and 23 percent said they probably would. In poll-speak, most spouses don't allow much for a margin of error.

Now, if you want to know what that all means, Gallup says that "hypothetically, only 36% say they would publicly stand by their spouse at the podium if that spouse were an elected official who had to face the media to answer questions about an affair." Sixty-one percent would effectively say, "Forget that 'for better or worse' stuff."

As on many issues surveyed by Gallup, Americans are pretty divided on which kind of cheating is worse. Thirty-five percent of all Americans said that paying for a prostitute is worst, thirty-four percent frowned more on a romantic affair and 27 percent "volunteered" that both were equally bad. There is a gender gap on this question. Forty percent of men disapproved most of a romantic affair versus 32 percent who disliked the prostitute scenario the most, while 38 percent of women condemned the prostitute option compared to 32 percent who were most bothered by a romantic affair.

Hillary Clinton is leading Barack Obama in Pennsylvania by 49 percent to 39 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted March 24. That compares to the 51 percent to 38 percent lead she held in Rasmussen's March 12 survey and the 51 percent to 35 percent margin over Obama reported in a Franklin & Marshall poll conducted March 11-16. Pennsylvania, which votes April 22, hazs 188 delegates.

Rasmussen said that 87 percent of Pennsylvania Democrats had seen, heard or read about the controversial statements of Obama's ex-pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Of those 47 percent said it made no difference to their vote, 36 percent said the controversy made them less likely to vote for Obama and 15 percent said it made them more likely to support him. Thirty-eight percent said they were somewhat or very concerned about Obama's relationship with Wright. A CBS News poll last week reported that 65 percent of those surveyed said the Wright relationship had no effect on how they viewed Obama.

On the economy, only 4 percent rated it as good or excellent.

See these stories on the race in Pennsylvania:

• Clinton: Wright 'Would Not Have Been My Pastor' Pittsburgh Tribune Review
• High-Stakes Race Fuels Party Switching Scranton Times Tribune
• In Pennsylvania, A Sense Of Disenfranchisement As Primary Nears New York Times
• Obama Plays Catch-Up In Pennsylvania Time

Barack Obama has taken A Great Leap Forward in North Carolina by opening up a 55 percent to 34 percent lead over Hillary Clinton, according to Public Policy Polling which conducted its survey on March 24. The margin of error is 3.8 percent. This is a startling rebound from PPP’s March 17 poll when Clinton had closed to within a point of Obama in the battle for this state’s 134 delegates. Dean Debnam of PPP attributed Obama’s surge to his recent visit to the state and “openly taking on some of the controversies swirling around his campaign.”

The poll found that if former candidate John Edwards decided to endorse Clinton that it would make no difference to 57 percent of voters. Thirty-one percent said it would make them less likely to vote for Clinton and only 12 percent said it would make them more likely to support her. Obama has leads in the 20 point range among both men and women.

Forty-seven percent named the economy and jobs as the top campaign issue followed by 26 percent who cited Iraq. White voters, who made up 59 percent of the sample, favored Clinton by 47 percent to 40 percent while black voters, comprising 34 percent of the sample, supported Obama by 80 percent to 14 percent.

Somehow, Poll Tracker missed a Quinnipiac University poll published on Friday showing New York firmly in the column no matter which Democrat is nominated. The poll, conducted March 16-18, said Hillary Clinton leads John McCain 50 percent to 40 percent while Barack Obama bests him 49 percent to 38 percent. The margin of error is 2.5 percent. A previous SurveyUSA poll, conducted March 14-16, had Clinton ahead 54 percent to 41 percent while Obama led 52 percent to 44 percent.

Quinnipiac noted “a huge racial split” if the race were to be between Obama and McCain, with McCain leading among white voters 47 percent to 41 percent, while Obama was ahead among black voters 86 percent to 6 percent. Clinton runs evenly with McCain among white voters and leads among black voters 70 percent to 16 percent. SurveyUSA poll had McCain leading Obama among whites by 51 percent to 40 percent, and Obama leading among black voters 85 percent to 9 percent. SurveyUSA’s numbers for Clinton were similar to those of Quinnipiac.

Maurice Carroll, head of Quinnipiac’s Polling Institute, said, “Those racial and gender breakdowns are troubling for the Democrats. If Obama trails among white voters in New York, one of the most liberal states in the nation, what does that say about his chances in other states?”

Forty-seven percent of voters named economy as the top issue in the campaign and, asked about their own financial situations, 18 percent said they are “getting ahead,” 64 percent said they are “holding steady” and 17 percent said they are “falling behind.”

Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are back to a statistical tie in the Democratic nomination battle, with Obama ahead 47 percent to 46 percent, according to the Gallup daily tracking poll conducted March 18-22. The margin of error is 3 points. Clinton had led by as much as 7 points earlier last week, then Obama creeped back in the last daily survey to lead by 3.

Jewish Democratic voters tilt slightly to Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama, leads him by a big margin over Catholic Democrats while Democrats who say they are Protestant divide about evenly, according to a Gallup poll conducted March 1-22. Among Jewish Democrats, Clinton leads Obama 48 percent to 43 percent with 8 percent expressing no opinion. The margin of error is 6 percent. (The New York Times recently did a piece on Obama's efforts to court the Jewish vote). Catholic Democrats favored Clinton 56 percent to 37 percent, with a 2 point margin of error, while Protestants favor Obama 47 percent to 44 percent, with a 2 point margin of error. Democrats with no religious preference favor Obama 54 percent to 40 percent.

There are new general election match-ups out today for North Carolina and Nevada, bringing the number of state polls we have collected in our round-up to 30 states, with a total of 300 electoral votes, when older surveys are eliminated for states where there are newer polls. Here is a summary, hardly scientific, of where things stand by this measure, particularly since California and New York skew the result in a sample of less than all 50 states:

John McCain has leads beyond the margin of error over both Democrats in 8 states, plus one state (Ohio) where he beats Barack Obama but is in a statistical tie with Hillary Clinton. The 8 states account for 93 delegates. McCain's states: Kansas, Arkansas, Alabama, Missouri, Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee and North Carolina. He is behind by a statistically significant margin in Oregon, Washington state and New Mexico but the numbers are close enough for the races to be called competitive. He is in a statistical tie in 4 states with both Democrats. States where he is in a tie with either Democrat are Virginia, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Nevada.

Obama and Hillary Clinton have clear leads in the same 6 states with 115 delegates. They are: California, New York, Oregon, Washington state, New Mexico and Connecticut. However, Obama leads McCain in Iowa while Clinton runs statistically even, so he has 122 delegates to her 115. Obama is roughly tied with McCain in 6 other states while Clintomn runs fairly evenly in 8.

To check out our round-up state-by-state, read on after the jump.

Most Americans believe gasoline prices will increase 21 percent this year and 63 percent say the price jumps so far have already caused them financial hardship, according to a Gallup poll conducted March 14-16. Forty-nine percent say prices will rise to the $3.76 to $4 per gallon range and 19 percent fear they will go over $4. the Lundberg Survey of 5,000 gasoline stations reported yesterday that prices rose nearly 7 cents over the past two weeks to reach an all-time inflation-adjusted high of $3.26 per gallon of self-serve regular.

The Democratic Party has increased its margin in voters who identify with it rather than Republicans, and going into this year's election has increased its advantage among independent voters and in swing states, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted during the first two months of this year.

Pew says voters now favor the Democrats by a "decidedly larger margin" than the previous two election cycles.

Voters who identify themselves as Independents actually occupy first place at 37 percent, followed by Democrats at 36 percent and Republicans at 27 percent. That's a 3 point gain for Democrats since 2004 and a 6 point drop for Republicans, putting them at their lowest ebb in 16 years.

The Democrats have added to that an edge among self-described independents. In 2004, independents broke roughly evenly among the two parties with 12 percent favoring Democrats and 11 percent the Republicans. But now, 15 percent lean Democratic compared to 10 percent who lean Republican. That means Democrats have a 51 percent to 37 percent margin if the leaners are combined with those who outright identify themselves as being for one party or the other.

However, Pew cautions against automatically interpreting these results as a Democratic advantage in the presidential race. "There is not a one-to-one correspondence between the balance of party identification in a given state and the electoral outcome in presidential elections," it said, a face that is evident in state-by-state and national polls.

SurveyUSA released an avalanche of polls the other day matching up John McCain against Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama state-by-state, so we’re just digesting all of these now.

In every state, the economy is cited as the top issue – as it is in national polls – and in nearly all of these polls, Obama and Clinton best McCain on this subject. The same is true when it comes to Iraq which is usually the runner-up among most important issues. McCain trounces both Clinton and Obama by huge margins among voters who care most about fighting terrorism, but the number of voters who cite that as the top issue are most often in single digits in the samples. In some states, McCain is faring significantly better against Obama than Clinton among Hispanic voters, although Obama’s leads are still sizable. Generally, McCain does poorly in these polls among voters in the 18-to-34 age group, although the results for other age groups are more mixed.

All of these surveys were conducted March 14-16. We’ll start off with some of the big ones – California, New York and Virginia – and then, as a bonus, add the state surveys by SurveyUSA and other pollsters that we’ve been tracking. Find it all on the jump page

After being as much as 7 points behind Hillary Clinton earlier in the week, Barack Obama has now edged past her, 48 percent to 45 percent, according to today's Gallup daily tracking poll conducted March 19-21. Although the difference matches the 3 percent margin of error, today's result does mark a turnaround from Obama who had been hurt in recent weeks by questions about his experience and the controversy over his ex-pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

Gallup said: "Obama's campaign clearly suffered in recent days from negative press, mostly centering around his association with the controversial Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Perhaps as a result, Clinton moved into the lead in Gallup's Wednesday release, covering March 16-18 polling. But Obama has now edged back ahead of Clinton due to a strong showing for him in Friday night's polling, perhaps in response to the endorsement he received from well-respected New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, a former rival for the nomination."

In its general election match-ups, Gallup said both Democrats inched closer to McCain in its March 17-21 polling, with McCain ahead of Obama by 46 percent to 44 percent and Obama by 47 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error is 2 points.

One nugget we had meant to bring to you from the Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll that was released Thursday.

Question 9: Do you think you would seriously consider voting for third party candidate Ralph Nader over one of the other major party candidates in November?

• All voters: 14 percent "yes," 77 percent "no," 9 percent "don't know."
• Democrats: 10 percent "yes," 81 percent "no," 9 percent "don't know."
• Republicans: 14 percent "yes," 79 percent "no," 8 percent "don't know."
• Independents: 21 percent "yes," 69 percent "no," 10 percent "don't know."

Republicans for Nader???

Rasmussen Reports has put together a "Balance of Power Calculator," based in large part on polling it has done in many states, It puts the Democrats ahead of Republicans 200 votes to 189 when states scored "safe" or "likely" for either party are combined. When "leaning" states are added, Democrats lead 247 to 229, with 270 required to elect.

Here's how Rasmussen got to its totals:

• Safely Democratic: California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New York (31), Rhode Island (4), and Vermont (3).
• Likely Democratic: New Jersey (15), Oregon (7), Washington (11) and Wisconsin (10).
• Leans Democratic: Iowa (7), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), and Pennsylvania (21).
• Toss-Up: Colorado (9), Michigan (17), Missouri (11), Nevada (5), and Ohio (20).
• Leans Republican: Florida (27), Virginia (13).
• Likely Republican: Arkansas (6) and North Carolina (15).
• Safely Republican: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5) and Wyoming (3).

CQ Politics has been keeping a round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups, including by Rasmussen, and you can find it here beginning with Rasmussen's poll today on Arkansas.

Hillary Clinton trails John McCain in a general election match-up in her home state of Arkansas and Barack Obama is not even close, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted March 18. McCain leads Clinton 50 percent to 43 percent and Obama by 59 percent to 30 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain far outpaces Clinton in favorability ratings, among voters by 66 percent to 50 percent. The economy is regarded as the top issue, with 48 percent of voters citing it, and among them, just 14 percent rate the economy good or excellent.

Rasmussen yesterday released a poll on Georgia conducted March 20 showing McCain leading Obama 53 percent to 40 percent and Clinton 54 percent to 34 percent. Georgia voters also named the economy as the most important issue (45 percent) and only 15 percent said the economy was good or excellent.

Nationally, the number of Americans who rate the economy good or excellent stands at 17 percent, according to today's Gallup daiy tracking poll.

These polls, taken together with those in other border and southern states, shows some serious, if somewhat predictable, weaknesses for either Democrat in those regions and particularly raises a question about the proposition Obama has tried to put forth that he can make inroads in states that Democrats have long given up as lost.

See our list of other state-by-state matchups after the jump.

CBS News re-interviewed voters it had canvassed during the controversy over the rhetoric of Barack Obama's ex-pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, before Obama gave his Tuesday speech in Philadelphia on race. That poll said sixty-five percent said Wright's oratory made no difference in how they viewed Obama and 30 percent said the story made them look less favorably on Obama. Its new poll said that 69 percent of voters who have been following this story said Obama did a good job in his Philadelphia speech on race relations while 20 percent thought he did a poor job.

Seventy percent of voters said the controversy over Wright would make no difference in how they vote. But Obama did suffer a decline in the number of voters who believed he would unite the country - from 67 percent in February to 52 percent now.

While the controversy over Barack Obama's ex-pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, has taken a toll on his campaign that has yet to be overcome, two polls today - from Gallup and Rasmussen Reports -suggested that Obama's Philadelphia speech may have helped him reverse some of the damage, although there is still a significant number of voters left with doubts.

Hillary Clinton's lead over Obama, which had grown to as much as 7 points this week, has now dropped back to a statistically insignificant 47 percent to 45 percent, according to the Gallup daily tracking poll. The poll was conducted March 18-20 and has a 3 point margin of error. Gallup said: "The surge in Democrats' preference for Clinton that Gallup detected earlier in the week has started to move out of the three-day rolling average, and the race is back to a near tie. It is possible that Obama's aggressive efforts to defuse the Wright story, including a major speech on race on March 11, have been effective." Still, Gallup cautioned, "Obama has yet to recover fully from the apparent damage done by the Wright controversy. It was only one week ago that Obama led the race by a significant six-point margin over Clinton, 50% to 44%."

A Rasmussen Reports survey, conducted March 19-20, said that among the 84 percent of likely voters who had seen or heard at least some portion of Obama's speech, 51 percent rated it good, 26 percent said it was fair and 21 percent said it was poor. The partisan breakdown had 67 percent of Democrats saying it was good compared to 53 percent of unaffiliated voters and 31 percent of Republicans. Along the racial divide, 86 percent of black voters called it good compared to 45 percent of white voters.

Rasmussen said 56 percent of voters said they remained somewhat or very concerned about Obama's relationship with Wright despite the speech. When Fox News asked, in the poll it released yesterday, whether that relationship "made you have doubts about Obama, or not," 54 percent answered "no" compared to 35 percent who said "yes." About three-quarters of Republicans, slightly more than half of unaffiliated voters and slightly less than half of Democrats said they still felt that concern. In the Fox news survey, 66 percent of Republicans said the Wright connection still made them have doubts about Obama compared to 27 percent for independents and 26 percent for Democrats.

John McCain is running far ahead of either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama in the deep South state of Alabama, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted March 14-16. McCain beats Clinton 56 percent to 38 percent, while leading Obama 62 percent to 35 percent. Alabama has 9 electoral votes. McCain leads both Democrats in all age groups by double digits. 45 percent of the sample identifies themselves as Evangelicals and McCain leads Clinton there by 67 percent to 29 percent and Obama by 76 percent to 21 percent. The economy is identified as the top issue by 35 percent of voters and while Clinton runs about even with McCain among them, McCain leads Obama 54 percent to 42 percent. Clinton leads McCain by 2-to-1 among the 13 percent of voters who cited Iraq as the top issue but the gap between him and Obama is within the polls 4.2 percent margin of error. Terrorism was cited by 11 percent as the top issue and, as in some other states polls, McCain leads both potential foes by huge margins. The same is true on the issue of immigration, named as the most important by 13 percent of the sample.

Go to the jump page to see our wrap-up of other state match-ups.

Most Americans - 72 percent -- say they have heard about the controversial oratory of Rev. Jeremiah Wright, Barack Obama's ex-pastor, but more than half said they do not believe Obama shares his views, according to a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll conducted March 18-19.

Fifty-four percent of voters said Obama's association with Wright did not make them have doubts about him, but that left 35 percent of voters who did have doubts after Wright's comments became known. Breaking the numbers down by party affiliation, Democrats said they did not believe Obama shared Wright's views by 63 percent to 17 percent, Republicans by 46 percent to 36 percent, and independents by 62 percent to 20 percent.

Black voters said by a 72 percent to 15 percent margin that Obama did not share Wright's views compared to 55 percent to 25 percent among white voters. The same difference across racial lines registered on the question of whether the controversy prompted doubts about Obama. Black voters said no by a 90 percent to 2 percent margin, while white voters said no by a 49 percent to 40 percent margin.

In the Democratic horse race, Clinton leads Obama by a statistically insignificant 40 percent to 38 percent margin. The margin of error is 5 percent. That differs from Gallup's daily tracking poll which has Clinton ahead by a statistically significant but modest 5 points.

Although Hillary Clinton continues to hold a statistically meaningful lead over Barack Obama, Obama's Tuesday speech on race appears to have helped him limit the damage from the controversy over racially divisive remarks by his ex-pastor, according to Gallup's daily tracking poll. Clinton had a 49 percent to 42 percent in yesterday's poll, but Obama narrowed that today to 48 to 43 percent. The poll was conducted March 17-19 and has a 3 point margin of error. Gallup said, "While Tuesday night polling showed no immediate benefit for Obama, the Wednesday results were more favorable to him."

Hillary Clinton has a big lead over Barack Obama in West. Virginia which holds its primary May 13, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted March 13. She’s ahead 55 percent to 27 percent. West Virginia Democrats believe by a 48 percent to 31 percent margin that Clinton would be the stronger general election candidate. The top issue here, like everywhere else, is the economy, cited as number one by 51 percent of likely primary voters.

Hillary Clinton is leading Barack Obama by 51 percent to 35 percent among likely Democratic voters in the critical primary state of Pennsylvania, according to a Franklin & Marshall poll conducted March 11 to 16. The margin of error is 5.7 percent. Nearly 1 in 7 likely voters are still undecided. Clinton's lead had been 12 points in F & M's February survey.

Since the last poll, Obama's favorability rating dropped 10 points to 47 percent and his unfavorable rating rose 16 percent to 25 percent. "Considering the losses that Obama took in Texas and Ohio, and when you add to it the negativity of the comments attributed to Reverend Wright, that's two shots to the body that Obama is having trouble dealing with," said political scientist Joseph DiSarro said. The F & M poll was completed before Obama's speech on race on Tuesday.

DiSarro's point may well touch on the same dynamics of national and state polls that came out yesterday showing slippage by Obama on both fronts.

Top issues cited by Pennsylvanians were the economy (39 percent), Iraq (23 percent), and health care (18 percent).

Barack Obama's lead over Hillary Clinton has dwindled in the Democratic nomination fight, while in general election match-ups, both Democrats hold slim leads over John McCain, according to a CBS News poll conducted March 15-18. The margin of error in this poll is 3 percent. This poll reflects the same slippage for Obama in other national and state polls, both against Clinton and a general election match-up, against McCain. Many of these polls have suggested the twin beatings Obama has suffered on the issue of his experience and the controversy over racially divisive remarks by his ex-pastor have taken a toll.

Here are the highlights:

• Obama leads McCain 48 percent to 43 percent, a smaller margin than his 12 point lead in February. Clinton leads McCain 46 percent to 44 percent.
• McCain leads both Democrats among independent voters.
• Obama has the highest favorable rating among the three.
• Obama's advantage among males has slipped, while Clinton has increased her support among women.
• Sixty-seven percent of Democrats believe that the fight will go down to the convention and 44 percent think the battle will weaken the eventual nominee in the Fall.
• Thirty-six percent of Obama supporters would be angry if the nomination was decided in Clinton's favor because of the superdelegates and 56 percent would be disappointed.

There are some more polls out this afternoon on state-by-state general election match-ups, and these two - Missouri and Kentucky – from SurveyUSA have particularly bad news for Barack Obama who gets trounced by John McCain in both states.

For details on these two polls and other state-by-state polls, go to the jump page.

President Bush's approval rating fell to a new low in a CNN/Opinion Research poll, conducted March 14-16, with only 31 percent of Americans believing he is doing a good job. Bush's rating had been at 71 percent at the start of the Iraq war five years ago. "That 40-point drop is almost identical to the drop President Lyndon Johnson faced during the Vietnam War," said CNN polling director Keating Holland. Sixty-four percent of Republicans think Bush is doing a good job but only 9 percent of Democrats agree.

The poll noted that some of Bush's predecessors had sunk even lower: his father, George H.W. Bush, who bottomed out at 29 percent in July 1992; Jimmy Carter, who fell to 28 percent in June 1979; Richard Nixon, at 24 percent in July and August of 1974; and Harry Truman, who dipped to 22 percent in 1952.

With its 20 electoral votes and importance as a swing state, Ohio looms large in the general election, and a poll out today shows John McCain faring pretty well against the Democrats. Public Policy Polling, in a survey conducted March 15-17, says McCain leads Barack Obama 49 percent to 41 percent and trails Hillary Clinton by just 45 percent to 44 percent, a statistically insignificant figure given the 3.9 percent margin of error.

PPP says this poll is similar to the one it released yesterday on Florida, showing Clinton as having difficulty with black voters and Obama with holding on to the Democratic base. The latter is not a problem for McCain as far as Republicans go.

On issues, 53 percent of Ohio voters say the top concern is the economy and 19 percent cite Iraq, with all others in single digits.

A SurveyUSA poll conducted March 14-16 had Clinton ahead of McCain 50 percent to 44 percent, and McCain ahead of Obama by 50 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. Clinton does better than Obama against McCain among male voters, running about evenly while Obama lags by 10 points.

The economy was cited as the top issue by 48 percent of voters with health care at 13 percent and Iraq at 11 percent. Clinton bests McCain among voters concerned about the economy by 55 percent to 39 percent, while Obama and McCain are in a statistical tie. On Iraq, McCain lags Clinton by 4 points and Obama by 17.

For other state by state polls, go to the jump page.

For the first time in a month, Hillary Clinton has taken a statistically significant lead over Barack Obama, with a margin of 49 percent to 42 percent, according to the Gallup daily tracking poll. The poll was taken March 16-18 and has a margin of error of 3 points. While the survey was conducted largely before Obama's speech in Philadelphia yesterday, in which he tried to defuse the controversy over racial remarks by his ex-pastor, Gallup said, "The initial indications are that the speech has not halted Clinton's gaining momentum, as she led by a similar margin in Tuesday night's polling as compared to Monday night's polling."

A Reuters/Zogby poll conducted March 13-14 said that the 14 point lead Obama enjoyed in February in its survey had dwindled to a statistically insignificant 47 percent to 44 percent edge. The margin of error was 4.4 percent. Zogby attributed Obama's slide to the questions raised by Clinton and others about his experience and the controversy over Wright.

In its general election match-ups, Gallup had John McCain moving ahead of Obama 47 percent to 43 percent and leading Clinton 48 percent to 45 percent. That survey was conducted March 14-18 and had a 2 point margin of error.

Zogby's general election match-up has McCain ahead of Obama 46 percent to 40 percent compared to last month when Obama was ahead by 7 points, and McCain leading Clinton 48 percent to 40 percent, compared to the 12 point advantage he enjoyed last month. The margin of error for this poll is 3.2 percent.

Hillary Clinton is closing in on Barack Obama in North Carolina where the contest for the state's 134 delegates will be held May 6, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted March 17. Obama's lead is now 44 percent to 43 percent with a 4.3 percent margin of error. PPP's last poll had his lead at 4 points and a SurveyUSA poll taken March 8-10 had it at 8 points. PPP says that the controversy over Obama's ex-pastor, Jeremiah Wright, has hurt him here as well in polls it has conducted in Pennsylvania and Florida. It should be noted, though, that these polls were conducted before Obama's Philadelphia speech yesterday. A national CBS News poll, also conducted before the speech, reported that most Americans said the controversy had not affected their views of Obama.

In the PPP poll, Clinton led Obama among Democrats 44 percent to 43 percent but that was offset by Obama's strong support among unaffiliated voters where he had a margin of 53 percent to 35 percent. Clinton leads among white voters 56 percent to 30 percent while Obama leads among black voters 72 percent to 19 percent. the gender gap is not as pronounced here as it is in some other states. Another difference in this poll is that Clinton is doing better among younger voters than older voters. Fifty four percent of Democrats cited the economy as the top issue in the campaign and 21 percent named Iraq. As in a lot of other state polls, all other issues have fallen into single digits.

Seventy-six percent of Americans say the U.S. is now in a recession - a view held more strongly by Democrats and Independents than Republicans - and 59 percent believe it is very or somewhat likely that the nation will fall into a Depression in the next two years, according to a Gallup poll conducted March 14-16. The prospect of a Depression worries 46 percent of Americans a "great deal" and 33 percent "a moderate amount." Going back to the recession question, more than 80 percent of Democrats and Independents believe it has arrived compared to 60 percent of Republicans.

A Zogby poll released today reported an almost identical result.

While John McCain has been running even with Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in general election match-ups, a CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted March 14-16 suggest some underlying voter beliefs that could spell trouble for him.

Over 50 percent of voters said that Obama and Clinton agree with them on the issues they believe most important compared to 39 percent for McCain. Asked which candidate cares about people like them, 67 percent chose Obama, 55 percent answered Clinton and 51 percent named McCain. A USA Today/Gallup poll released earlier today asked a number of the same questions, including the "care about you" one and came up with a roughly similar result: Obama on top with 66 percent, and Clinton and McCain tied at 54 percent.

On the other side, about 60 percent of Americans said Obama did not have the right experience to be president, compared to 38 percent for Clinton and 31 percent for McCain.

Asked who they would be proud to have as President, 62 percent of voters answered Obama, 57 percent said Clinton and 50 percent said McCain. Gallup had a different result: Obama 57 percent, McCain 55 percent and Clinton 47 percent. On the question of who best would work with both parties to get things done in Washington. 65 percent chose Obama, 56 percent said McCain and 52 percent answered Clinton. That was the same pecking order in the Gallup poll, but different figures: Obama and McCain matched up evenly, and Clinton was way behind.

In a poll conducted before Barack Obama's speech today in Philadelphia about race, most voters who were aware of the stories about the controversial rhetoric of Obama's ex-pastor Jeremiah Wright said Wright's statements did not alter their views of Obama. The poll by CBS News said sixty-five percent said it made no difference and 30 percent said the story made them look less favorably on Obama. Fifty eight percent of voters said they had heard a lot or "some" about the story. Broken out by party affiliation, Democrats said by a 76 percent to 15 percent margin that the story made no difference to them, Independents held that same view by a 61 percent to 36 percent margin, and Republicans more narrowly agreed, 53 percent to 47 percent. The survey was conducted March 16-17.

Hillary Clinton would be the frontrunner if Florida were to hold a new primary but not by as large a margin over Barack Obama as she scored in the Jan. 29 vote, according to a poll conducted March 15-17 for the St. Petersburg Times, the Miami Herald and Bay News 9 TV. The poll said Clinton's margin over Obama would be 46 percent to 37 percent with 16 percent undecided and a 4 point margin of error. Clinton beat Obama 50 percent to 33 percent, with John Edwards getting 14 percent, in the January election that was voided by the national party because Florida violated rules against moving up the primary date.

However, prospects of a re-vote were quashed yesterday when state Democratic chair Karen Thurman threw in the towel, saying: "The consensus is clear: Florida doesn’t want to vote again. So we won’t.”

Forty-four percent of voters said they wanted the Jan. 29 vote to count, with 56 percent of Clinton supporters holding that view compared to 27 percent of Obama supporters. If the vote were to be counted, Clinton would net 38 delegates, allowing her to narrow but not close the 100-plus delegate gap with Obama, the Miami Herald said.

Asked "how much of an effect...the major candidates pledging not to campaign in Florida had on your ability to make a properly informed choice," 56 percent answered it had no effect, 24 percent said it had an effect and 16 percent said it had "a major effect." While three-quarters of Florida Democrats said it was important to them that the state's delegates count towards picking the nominee, only a minority of voters said they would be less likely to support the Democratic candidate in the Fall if the delegates were not counted.

Voters consider Hillary Clinton, by far, to be the least honest and trustworthy of the three candidates in the presidential race, according to a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted March 14-16. Forty-four percent of those surveyed said they considered her honest and trustworthy while 53 percent did not. By contrast, John McCain is considered honest and trustworthy by a 67 percent to 27 percent margin, and Barack Obama is close at 63 percent to 29 percent. Clinton also lags the two by double-digits on the question of who would work well with both parties in Washington to get things done.

The poll tested the candidates for nine other questions of character and qualities:

• Cares about the needs of people like you: Obama 66 percent; Clinton and McCain both at 54 percent.
• Strong and decisive leader: McCain 69 percent, Clinton 61 percent, Obama 56 percent.
• Shares your values: Obama 51 percent, McCain 46 percent, Clinton 45 percent
• Has a clear plan for solving the country's future problems: Clinton 49 percent, McCain 42 percent, Obama 41 percent
• Has a vision for the country's future: Clinton 68 percent, Obama 67 percent, McCain 65 percent
• Can manage the government effectively: McCain 60 percent, Clinton 51 percent, Obama 48 percent
• Understands the problems Americans face in their daily lives: Obama 67 percent, Clinton 58 percent, McCain 55 percent
• Would work well with both parties in Washington to get things done: Obama 62 percent, McCain 61 percent, Clinton 49 percent.
• Is someone you would be proud to have as president: Obama 57 percent, McCain 55 percent, Clinton 47 percent.

Two new polls are out today showing Hillary Clinton with a comfortable lead in the upcoming April 22 Pennsylvania primary.

Clinton has opened up a 56 percent to 30 percent lead over Barack Obama in Pennsylvania with 14 percent undecided, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted March 15-16. The margin of error is 4.5 percent.

A Quinnipiac University poll conducted March 10-16 puts Clinton's lead at 53 percent to 41 percent, with a 2.7 percent margin of error. In its last poll in late February, Clinton's margin was only 6 points.

John McCain leads both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in the key general election state of Florida, according to a new poll, although its findings differ somewhat from a different survey last week. Public Policy Polling has McCain ahead of Clinton 47 percent to 43 percent and leading Obama 50 percent to 39 percent in a survey conducted March 15-16. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll released Friday had McCain over Obama 47 percent to 43 percent and ahead of Clinton 47 percent to 40 percent.

The PPP survey said both Democrats were having trouble among voters who they need to count upon as bases of support. Clinton only has the support of 51 percent of black voters in the poll, with 36 percent undecided and 13 percent favoring McCain. Obama leads McCain among Democrats 60 percent to 25 percent, but the survey suggested that margin is not large enough for him to carry the state.

McCain has double digit leads over Obama and Clinton among male voters. Clinton has an 8 point lead over McCain among women voters, but McCain bests Obama in this group by 9 points.

Forty-seven percent of Floridians say the economy is the top issue, followed by Iraq at 24 percent. All other issues are in single digits.

For Poll Tracker's compilation of other state-by-state surveys, read on . . .

Both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton currently match up with John McCain in a statistical tie for the general election race, according to a CNN/Opinion Research poll. Obama stacks up 47 percent to 46 percent against McCain while Clinton has a 49 percent to 47 percent edge. The margin of error is 3 points. Poll director Keating Holland says: "Clinton appears to do a little bit better than Obama among older voters, women, and self-identified Democrats against McCain; Obama's numbers may be slightly better among younger voters and those who describe themselves as Republicans and Independents." The projected closeness of the race generally squares with other polls.

In another survey this morning, Gallup says that McCain has the highest favorable ratings of any of the three. His favorable to unfavorable margin is 67 percent to 27 percent, Obama's is 62 percent to 33 percent and Clinton's is 53 percent to 44 percent. McCain has not enjoyed as high a favorable rating since he was in the middle of his first try for the Republican nomination in 2000.

Democrats want to see Barack Obama emerge as their party's presidential nominee by a 52 percent to 45 percent margin over Hillary Clinton, according to a CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted March 14-16. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. CNN Poll Director Keating Holland said: "The same patterns that we have been seeing in recent exit polls are holding true for Democrats nationwide as well. Obama's biggest support comes from men, younger voters and independents who lean Democratic. Clinton does best among women, older voters and whites."

The survey also tested the opinion of Democrats on the thorny issue of what to do about Florida and Michigan who were stripped of their delegates when they violated party rules by advancing the dates of their primaries. Sixty three percent said the states should hold new votes, 19 percent said the delegates chosen in January should be seated and 15 percent said the penalties should stand. Gallup asked a similar question in a poll released last week. In that survey, 25 percent said they would honor the results of the primaries already held, 27 percent favored holding a new caucus or primary, and 23 percent said the two states should get no delegates. Twenty two percent had no opinion.

Florida this afternoon abandoned a proposal put forward by state Democratic Party Chairman Karen L. Thurman to conduct a statewide revote by mail.

If the race comes down to the votes of the superdelegates, CNN said its poll showed Democrats pretty evenly divided with 49 percent saying they should choose who they thought was the best candidate while 46 percent said they should base their votes on the winners of the caucuses and primaries. Both Gallup and Newsweek had polls that also showed sharp divisions with Gallup saying that Democrats thought by a 50 percent to 45 percent majority that superdelegates should back whoever had the most delegates after the primaries and caucuses were over, and Newsweek finding that Democrats believed by 43 percent to 42 percent that the candidate behind in the count should concede.

A USA Today/Gallup poll shows John McCain in a close race with either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. In a survey conducted March 14-16, Clinton leads 51 percent to 46 percent while Obama leads 49 percent to 47 percent. The margin of error is 4 percent.

As has been the case previously, Gallup's daily tracking poll showed different numbers for the same survey dates, although the bottom line is basically the same. McCain leads Obama 46 percent to 44 percent and is tied with Clinton at 46 percent each. Margin of error is 2 percent.

In the Democratic nomination contest, Clinton has inched ahead of Obama 47 percent to 45 percent after being 3 points behind in the last tracking poll, but the difference is not significant given the 3 point margin of error.

Nearly three-quarters of Americans believe the U.S. economy is now in a recession, according to a CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted March 14-16. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. The 74 percent who expressed that view compares to 66 percent last month, 61 percent in January and 46 percent in October. Of those, 29 percent say the U.S. is in a "serious" recession and half believe it will last more than a year. The number of Americans who now call the economy the top issue in the campaign also increased markedly and now stands at 42 percent, almost double the October figure. It is followed by Iraq at 21 percent and health care at 18 percent.

Gallup's daily tracking poll, conducted during the same period, says 42 percent of Americans describe the economy as "poor," the highest percentage so far this year.

For other recent polling on the economy, click here.

Hillary Clinton's now-famous "3 a.m." ad asked voters who they would prefer to answer the phone in the White House if it rang at 3 a.m. in the morning because of a world crisis.

By large margins, voters say "John McCain," according to a Zogby poll conducted March 13-14. But although the point of the Clinton ad was to stoke doubts about Barack Obama's experience, McCain's margins over each is pretty much the same -- 55 percent to 37 percent over Clinton, and 56 percent to 35 percent over Obama. In each case, about a quarter of voters who call themselves very liberal favor McCain on this question, and about one-third of mainline liberals feel the same way.

When voters of all party's are asked that question about just Clinton and Obama, Clinton leads just 37 percent to 36 percent with 27 percent unsure. Just among Democrats, Clinton leads Obama 48 percent to 38 percent, with 14 percent unsure.

John McCain has a 47 percent to 43 percent lead over Barack Obama in Florida and bests Hillary Clinton 47 percent to 40 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted March 12. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. In Rasmussen's February survey, McCain had led Obama 53 percent to 37 percent and was ahead of Clinton 49 percent to 43 percent.

A Feb. 21-24 poll by Mason-Dixon had McCain leading Obama by 47 percent to 37 percent and Clinton by 49 percent to 40 percent.

To see Poll Tracker's round-up of other state-by state general election match-ups click here, and to read today's Gallup daily tracking poll on McCain's national match-ups with Clinton and Obama go here.

John McCain has a slight lead over Barack Obama in the latest Gallup daily tracking poll conducted March 11-15, leading him 47 percent to 44 percent, while remaining tied with Hillary Clinton at 46 percent each. The margin of error is 2 percent. In the Democratic nomination contest, Obama leads Clinton 48 percent to 45 percent, with a 3 point margin of error. That survey was conducted March 13-15.

In the latest state match-up between John McCain and each of the possible Democratic candidates in November, Rasmussen Reports says Barack Obama leads McCain in Connecticut by 50 percent to 38 percent, while Clinton is ahead by a statistically insignificant 47 percent to 44 percent. The poll was conducted March 11 and has a 4.5 percent margin of error. There is a big gender gap with Clinton and Obama both leading McCain among women voters by 20 points. Among men, McCain has a big lead over Clinton but slightly trails Obama. Obama beat Clinton in the Democratic primary here 51 percent to 47 percent.

Read on for our compilation of other state-by-state match-ups.

The number of Americans who believe the American economy is getting worse is at the highest point recorded by the Gallup Daily tracking poll - 85 percent. Just 16 percent rate the economy as excellent or good, the lowest number this year. The March 12-14 poll comes as Martin Feldstein, president of the National Bureau of Economic Research, said yesterday that recession is here. "The situation is bad, it's getting worse, and the risks are that the situation could be very bad," said Feldstein whose group is considered the "official word" on economic cycles, reports the Boston Globe. Business Week has a piece out, "Recession Time: What Can and Can't Be Done."

After nine straight daily reports in which Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were never separated by more than 4 points, Obama has opened a 50 percent to 44 percent lead in a Gallup daily tracking poll conducted March 11-13. The margin of error is 3 points.

In its general election match-ups, either Democrat is exactly tied with John McCain - Obama at 45 percent to 45 percent, and Clinton at 46 percent to 46 percent. This survey was conducted March 7-13 and has a 2 percent margin of error.

Rasmussen Reports has Obama ahead 50 percent to 42 percent with a 4 point margin of error. Rasmussen says it's the first time in its polling that Obama has reached 50 percent. Clinton leads among white voters 50 percent to 39 percent while Obama leads among black voters 84 percent to 9 percent. Rasmussen's general election match-ups pretty much mirror the Gallup results.

Adding on to the Iraq poll it released yesterday, Gallup has put out another poll today saying that 65 percent of Americans believe the U.S. has an obligation to remain in Iraq until a reasonable level of stability is reached. Thirty-two percent hold the opposite view. The poll was conducted Feb. 21-24.

Gallup has reported that about 60 percent of Americans say that going into Iraq was a mistake. But part of the reason they are conflicted on pulling out now is because 63 percent believe that al Qaeda would be more likely to use Iraq as a terrorist base if the U.S. left and that 57 percent think more Iraqis would die in the ongoing violence in their country. However, Americans are more divided on the question about whether keeping or removing troops from Iraq would increase the likelihood of a terrorist attack on the U.S. Forty percent said that likelihood would increase if American troops remained, and 38 percent said it would increase if the U.S. withdrew.

Gallup concludes that "the next U.S. president will face this confused landscape. Americans obviously are negative about the entire Iraqi enterprise . . . but -- perhaps realistically -- they believe the attempt to extricate the U.S. military from that country is not going to be a simple or straightforward matter."

Hillary Clinton has a 51 percent to 38 percent lead in Pennsylvania over Barack Obama in the latest Rasmussen Reports poll conducted March 12. The margin of error is 4 points. Today's result is about the same as the last round of Pennsylvania polls. Rasmussen says Clinton leads by about 25 points among women and runs about even with Obama among men. Fifty three percent of Democrats named the economy as the top issue.

Rasmussen also polled on the controversy stirred by Geraldine Ferraro when she suggested that Obama would not be in the position he is today had he been white. Among Clinton supporters, 39 percent agreed with Ferraro and 47 percent did not. Ninety-three percent of Obama backers disagreed with what she said. Sixty two percent of black voters found Ferraro's remarks racist, while 23 percent of white voters shared that view.

There have been a number of polls, mostly conducted in February, gauging how Americans are feeling about Iraq, and there are indications in these surveys that the view of how things are going and the chances of success are more positive than they were in the July-November period of last year. However, the latest numbers from Gallup, based on a survey conducted Feb. 21-24, says Americans are as divided as they were last September over whether and how quickly to pull out U.S. troops. And, of course, all this has particular significance for the campaign of John McCain who has made his stay-the-course stand on Iraq a signature issue.

Gallup says 41 percent of Americans favor an immediate pullout, 35 percent want troops to stay until the situation improves, and 18 percent favor an immediate withdrawal. There is no more agreement on how to pull troops out. Eighteen percent favor immediate withdrawal on a timetable, 45 percent gradual withdrawal and 35 percent favor no withdrawal. Most Americans believe that the U.S. will have a significant troop presence in Iraq anywhere from two to five years.

Read the Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll

Americans say by a 50 percent to 37 percent margin that they want a Democrat to be the next President, but when it comes down to an actual choice between Republican John McCain and either Democratic contender, the race is a statistical tie. Barack Obama leads McCain by 47% to 44%, while Hillary Clinton bests McCain by 47% to 45%. The poll, conducted March 7-10, has a margin of error of 3.1 points. A Gallup daily tracking poll released earlier today had Obama ahead of Clinton 46 percent to 44 percent with a 3 point margin of error.

As far as the Democratic race for the nomination, Clinton leads Obama nationally among Democratic voters by 47 percent to 43 percent compared to 53 percent to 37 percent in January. Democrats believe by a 48 percent to 38 percent margin that Obama would have a better chance of beating McCain in November.

The Pew Research Center does a News IQ Survey to test the public's knowledge of world and national affairs based on a series of 12 multiple choice questions. If you want to take the quiz yourself before reading the outcomes below, click here.

So, here is how people did. Snarky comments are our own, and do not reflect the views of Pew. There is one sobering note in this survey which we'll mention later.

• 84 percent knew the name of the talk show host who supports Barack Obama. (Awright, we'll give you a hint. Think "opera" and free associate. Second hint: the three incorrect choices were Jay Leno, Dr. Phil and Rush Limbaugh).
• 70 percent knew the Democrats were in the majority in the House.
• 70 percent knew that Condoleezza Rice was Secretary of State.
• 62 percent knew that the Sunnis were a branch of Islam along with the Sh'ites.
• 50 percent knew that Hugo Chavez was president of Venezuela. (Now that Venezuela is selling discount-price oil to help low-income people in several northeastern states, some might have thought Chavez was running for governor).
• 46 percent knew Kosovo had declared independent from Serbia.
• 40 percent knew Howard Dean was chairman of the Democratic National Committee. (They must have remembered "The Scream.")
• 35 percent knew Ben Bernanke was chairman of the Federal Reserve.
• 31 percent knew the Dow was at about 12,000 points.
• 28 percent knew the number of troops killed in Iraq, around 4,000.
• 24 percent knew Harry Reid was Democratic leader in the Senate.

The sobering note is that on the question of Iraq military fatalities, the number of Americans who are aware of those numbers has declined significantly. As the rankings show, 28 percent got the number correct in this survey compared to 54 percent in August 2007. Most of those who were off underestimated the number of deaths - 35 percent said about 3,000 and 11 percent said about 2,000. Pew noted that figures provided by the Project for Excellence in Journalism suggests that this might be correlated with a drop in the percentage of stories about the war from 15 percent of the newshole in July, 2007 to 3 percent last month.

Gallup today expanded its daily tracking poll to include general election match-ups and its first posting suggests that the race would be competitive, at least as far as popular vote, no matter which candidate the Democrats nominate. The poll, based on combined data collected March 7-11, says Barack Obama leads John McCain by 46 percent to 44 percent, while Hillary Clinton leads him 47 percent to 45 percent. the margin of error is 2 percent.

In its daily tracking of the Democratic nomination race ... not much change there. Obama leads Clinton 46 percent to 44 percent with a 3 point margin of error. The two have been within 5 points or less of each other all month,

Way down the road, beyond the April 22 Primary in Pennsylvania with its 188 delegates, is North Carolina on May 6 with another 134 delegates at stake. A SurveyUSA poll conducted March 8-10 says Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 49 percent to 41 percent. The margin of error is 3.7 percent. This is only a small change from a month ago when Obama led by 10 points.

The demographics:

• Age: Obama has a big lead among voters under 49, a small one for voters 50-to-64 while Clinton, as she usually does, leads among those over 65 by almost 20 points. The over-65s make up 20 percent of the sample.
• Race: Clinton leads among white voters by 52 percent to 35 percent (61 percent of the sample) and Obama leads by 78 percent to 17 percent among black voters (32 percent of the sample). Hispanics only make up 4 percent of the sample and Clinton leads among that group.

In its deep bag of polls, Gallup always seems to have one for every purpose, and today, the Eliot Spitzer scandal prompted it to dig down in polling it did in 2006 that found that only 22 percent of Americans "held state governors in high esteem for their moral character." Fifty-two percent of those interviewed rating the honesty or ethics of governers as "average," leaving 26 percent who said they were "low" or "very low."

But governors fared better than senators or congressmen who got high marks for honesty and ethics from only 15 percent and 14 percent, respectively. Forty nine percent rated senators as "average" and 35 percent rated them "low," while 45 percent described the ethics of House members as average and 40 percent said they were low.

Stateline.org had a piece yesterday - the lead's dated because Spitzer hadn't resigned yet - about other governors who have survived sex scandals and stayed in office.

Gratis MSNBC, here are some highlights from the exit polls in Mississippi:

• Unlike other states, Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton both among men and women, 61 percent to 38 percent and 58 percent to 39 percent respectively. Clinton's big margins among white men and white women were offset by Obama's leads among black men and black women.
• Obama had a big margin over Clinton among voters under 64 (63 percent to 35 percent) while Clinton led 55 percent to 43 percent among voters over 65.
• Another difference with other states' results is that Obama led Clinton in every demographic when it came to the level of education of the voters (did not complete high school, high school graduate, college graduate).
• Nine percent of voters made up their minds on the day of the primary and .they broke 47 percent to 38 percent for Clinton.
• Of three top issues presented to voters - the economy, Iraq, and health care - 55 percent chose the economy as the top issue and they voted for Obama 56 percent to 42 percent. Iraq and health care was cited as the top issue by 21 percent of voters and they overwhelmingly favored Obama.

Hillary Clinton has a 55 percent to 36 percent lead in Pennsylvania, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted March 8-10. The margin of error is 4 percent. This finding is roughly comparable to recent polls by Rasmussen Reports and American Research Group.

In somewhat of a departure from other states, Clinton leads Obama among men 47 percent to 42 percent while enjoying her customary big lead among women, 62 percent to 32 percent. She also leads in all age groups, including younger voters. She has a 61 percent to 29 percent lead among white voters who make up 80 percent of the sample while Obama leads 76 percent to 22 percent among black voters who make up 15 percent of the sample. There is not a big Hispanic vote.

The economy is named by 43 percent of voters as the top issue and Clinton leads on this one by 60 percent to 34 percent. Health care comes next, cited by 20 percent of voters, and Clinton leads 63 percent to 31 percent. The only other issue is double-digits was Iraq, named by 16 percent of voters, and Clinton had a within-the-margin of error lead of 48 percent to 45 percent.

A SurveyUSA poll says 67 percent of New Yorkers believe Gov. Eliot Spitzer should resign in the wake of stories that he had been involved with a prostitution ring. The survey of 900 adults was conducted today. Yesterday, when the news first broke, 58 percent said he should resign although it was not clear how many of them held that opinion because they thought he was doing a bad job (SurveyUSA had his approval rating plummeting from 62 percent i n January to 35 percent in February) or because they had heard about the story. Today the pollster posed its question the same way: "Based on what you know, should Eliot Spitzer remain in office? Or resign from office?" Republicans said "resign" by a 74 percent to 20 percent margin, Democrats by a 64 percent to 30 percent margin and Independents by a 72 percent to 23 percent margin.

Here's a final look at the polls in Mississippi, all pointing to a win for Barcak Obama tonight.

American Research Group: Obama leads 54 percent to 38 percent in a poll conducted March 9-10. Margin of error is 4 percent. That's a swing of 8 points in Clinton's favor since March 5-6, but obviously not enough. This is one state where Obama leads among women, 55 percent to 38 percent. There's the usual divide of white voters heavily for Clinton and black voters haveily for Obama.

InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion: Obama leads 54 percent to 37 percent with a 6 percent margin of error in this survey conducted March 9.

Democrats are agreed that Florida and Michigan should be represented at this summer's convention, but they differ on how to accomplish that, according to a Gallup poll conducted March 6-9. The two states were stripped of their delegates after they moved up the dates of their primaries in violation of party rules. Fifty-five percent of Democrats would like to see resolution that restores delegates to both states. A quarter favor a compromise that would honor the results of the January primaries, 27 percent favor holding a new caucus or primary in each state, 3 percent favor a compromise but did not specify what kind, and 23 percent said the two states should not be allowed to participate.

Hillary Clinton outpolled Barack Obama in Florida 55 percent to 33 percent and took 55 percent of the vote in Michigan. However, most of the candidates, including Obama, took their names off the ballot in Michigan, and while they were all on the ballot in Florida, Clinton made a last-minute trip to the state although the candidates had agreed not to campaign there.

Gallup also had a poll today on sharp divisions among the Democrats about the role of the superdelegates, another wild card in the convention equation.

Gallup's daily tracking poll, conducted March 8-10, had Obama narrowly ahead of Clinton 48 percent to 45 percent, with a 3 point margin of error.

Democrats believe by a bare 50 percent to 45 percent margin that superdelegates should vote for the candidate that has the most delegates after the primaries and caucuses are over, according to a Gallup poll conducted March 6-9. The margin of error is 5 percent. That's a similar result to a Newsweek poll last week that also showed a sharp division in Democratic ranks with 43 percent saying the candidate behind in the delegate count should concede and 42 percent saying the superdelegates should choose the nominee.

The division is even more pronounced when you pit backers of Hillary Clinton against those of Barack Obama. Obama supporters say by a 64 percent to 32 percent margin that the convention should choose whomever won the most delegates in the primaries and caucuses, while Clinton supporters say by a 60 percent to 35 percent margin that superdelegates should pick the candidate who they think would make the best president. This contrast between the Clinton and Obama camps also showed up in a Gallup poll yesterday about whether Clinton and Obama should agree now on a "dream ticket."

A flash poll of 900 New Yorkers statewide conducted by SurveyUSA immediately after news stories broke about Gov. Eliot Spitzer's alleged involvement with a prostitute ring said that 58 percent of those surveyed believed he should resign, while 32 percent said he should stay on the job.

Self-described Republicans and Independents called for his resignation by margins of more than 2-to-1 while Democrats said he should leave by a 55 percent to 37 percent margin. Ironically, the question was part of a survey on Spitzer's approval rating which had fallen to 35 percent in February compared to a 62 percent approval rating in January.

SurveyUSA said that, in asking the resignation question, it "did not allude to or characterize the news stories in any way" but asked, "Based on what you know, should Eliot Spitzer remain in office? Or resign from office?" The pollster added that the figures may shift further as New Yorkers learn more about the story.

Here is some coverage of the Spitzer story:

• New York Times: Revelations Began in Routine Tax Inquiry
• Newsday: Will Spitzer Resign?
• Washington Post: At The Mayflower, Client 9's Sinking Ship

Barack Obama is leading Hillary Clinton 54 percent to 38 percent in Mississippi which holds its primary Tuesday, according to an American Research Group poll. The survey was conducted and has a 4 point margin of error. That represents an 8 point pickup for Clinton compared to ARG’s March 5-6 poll. Clinton leads 65 percent to 28 percent among white voters (43 percent of the sample) while Obama leads 75 percent to 15 percent among black voters (54 per cent of the sample). Compare to earlier polls by ARG and Rasmussen Reports.

Most supporters of Hillary Clinton would like to see a "dream ticket" of her and Barack Obama, while the majority of Obama supporters opposed the idea, according to a Gallup poll conducted March 6-9.

The exact question posed to Democratic voters was: "Which would you, personally, favor - Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama getting together immediately to settle on a joint ticket where one is the presidential nominee and the other the vice presidential nominee (or) Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama continuing to campaign against each other for the Democratic presidential nomination?

Clinton supporters favored the joint ticket approach by 59 percent to 39 percent while Obama supporters wanted to fight on by a 52 percent to 45 percent margin. Among all Democrats, 51 percent favored a joint ticket and 45 percent opposed it. Gallup speculates that one reason Clinton supporters may be more favorable to the idea is the fear she will lose if the campaign goes on, although 71 percent of Clinton backers say they believe she will win (compared to 83 percent of those behind Obama).

Obama himself made it clear today that he's not much enamored of the idea. "I've won twice as many states as Senator Clinton. I've won more of the popular vote than Senator Clinton," he said while campaigning in Mississippi. "I have more delegates than Senator Clinton. So I don’t know how somebody who’s in second place is offering the vice presidency to someone who’s in first place,”

The Gallup daily tracking poll showed some new movement today after showing Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama statistically neck and neck. Obama led 49 percent to 44 percent in a survey conducted March 7-9. The margin of error was 3 points. Both Gallup and a Newsweek poll conducted March 5-6 had the two within a point of each other on Saturday.

Rasmussen Reports asked that question on five issues when it ccame to voters' views of John McCain, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.The answers:

• National Security: McCain bests Clinton by 13 points and Obama by 25 points.
• Economy: Clinton leads McCain by 6 points, while McCain leads Obama by the same margin.
• Reducing Government Corruption: Obama does better than McCain by 9 points while McCain leads Clinton by 11.
• Iraq: McCain leads Clinton by 4 and has a slightly larger margin over Obama.
• Taxes: Pretty close here. Clinton has a 2 point edge over McCain while McCain has a 5 point lead over Obama.

On all these issues, there is a significant gender gap between Clinton and McCain , with women mostly siding with Clinton and men with McCain. The margin of error for this March 7-9 poll is 3 points.

Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama in Pennsylvania by a 52 percent to 41 percent margin, according to an American Research Group poll conducted March 7-8. The margin of error is 4 percent. This compares to the 52 percent to 37 percent margin in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted March 5. Both show Clinton re-establishing herself in Pennsylvania compared to late February when several polls showed Obama, riding his wave of momentum, had closed the once big gap between them in that state.

Pew Research has compiled a useful document for those would-be (or real) politicos, journalists and historians about the Hispanic vote so far in this election year. The study analyzed the Hispanic vote in 16 states: Alabam, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts, Missouri, NewJersey, New Mexico, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Utah. It found some interesting differences between the Hispanic vote and other ethnic groups, such as producing opposite outcomes when it came to preferences of young voters and men voters.

For those interested in trends among voters of color, you might also look at our post the other day, Tracking The Race Factor In The Primaries.

Here are some of the key Pew Research findings:

• Hispanic voters have been a growing share of the turnout in 16 of the 19 states where comparisons could be made between this year and 2004.
• The preference for Clinton over Obama in the Super Tuesday primaries among Hispanic voters was 63 percent to 35 percent and 66 percent to 32 percent in the Texas primary.
• Clinton's support among Hispanic voters tended to cut across all demographic components (age, education, income, gender etc.) as opposed to the way some broke more for Clinton and Obama in the larger electorate.
• Hispanic voters on Super Tuesday were noticeably younger than those in other ethnic groups. Twenty one percent of Hispanic voters were under 29 compared to 16 percent among black voters and 11 percent among white voters. Fifty-four percent were under 45 compared to 33 percent for white voters and 46 percent for black voters. Differing from the trend among other groups, younger Hispanic voters favored Clinton over Obama.
• While Obama has generally done better among men voters, Clinton fared better among Hispanic males, besting Obama 58 percent to 40 percent.
• Hispanic voters were more likely than whites to say that gender and race mattered to them.
• "Bringing about change" was important to all groups, but less so among Hispanics (46 percent) and whites (49 percent) than black voters (68 percent).

Read the Full Newsweek story

Hillary Clinton’s victories this week in Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island have vaulted her back into a statistical dead-heat with Barack Obama in a national poll conducted by Newsweek March 5-6. Obama now leads by 45 percent to 44 percent. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. Today's Gallup daily tracking poll, based on a March 5-7 survey, shows a similarly close result: Clinton 46 percent, Obama 45 percent.

Newsweek also said that Democrats “are ready to rally around the candidate they trust most to improve the economy, amid fears of a recession.” (See also, a story about those concerns in today’s Los Angeles Times). Forty-seven percent of Democrats cited the economy as the top issue, with health care and Iraq second and third, but far behind. However, neither candidate dominates on the issue of the economy.

Zogby posted a poll yesterday that was conducted Feb. 22-23 that found Clinton, Obama and John McCain bunched together in terms of voters' views on who could best handle the economy.

A Rasmussen Reports poll in Mississipi, which holds its primary Tuesday, has Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton 53 percent to 39 percent, with a 4 point margin of error. The poll was conducted March 5 and generally squares with an American Research Group poll conducted Mar. 6-7 that we reported the other day. Obama has a 68 point edge among black voters while Clinton leads him 47 points among white voters.

If you're following this primary, read stories on Obama's interview with the Biloxi Sun Herald. and "Hillary Hits Hattiesburg" in the Jackson Clarion Ledger.

If Michigan and Florida were to hold new primaries, Hillary Clinton would have a big advantange in Florida, but would run neck-and-neck with Barack Obama in Michigan, according to a pair of Rasmussen Reports polls. The two states, of course, are ones that were stripped of their right to seat delegates at the Democratic convention because they moved up the dates of their primaries in violation of party rules.

Florida: Clinton leads Obama 55 perrcent to 39 percent in a poll conducted March 6. The margin of error is 4 percent. Clinton leads by 37 points among women while Obama leads by 12 among men. And the famous question about who-would-you-want-to-answer-the-phone-at-the-White-House-at 3 a.m. if there was a foreign policy crisis? Clinton led Obama 45 percent to 35 percent. Fourteen percent of Democrats said they'd prefer John McCain.

Michigan: An entirely different story here. Clinton and Obama tie at 41 percent each in a poll also conducted March 6 with a 4 percent margin of error. Clinton has a much smaller lead among women than in Florida - 7 points - and trails Obama by 8 points among men.

Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 58 percent to 34 percent in next week's primary in Mississippi, according to an American Research Group poll conducted March 5-6. It has a 4 point margin of error. Obama leads Clinton 66 percent to 31 percent among self-described Democrats, while Clinton while Clinton leads 44 percent to 31 percent among independents and Republicans. Clinton leads 61 percent to 22 percent among white voters (42 percent of the sample) while Obama leads 87 percent to 11 percent among black voters ( 55 percent of the sample). Twelve percent of likely Democratic voters say they would never vote for Clinton while 21 percent said they would never vote for Obama on the primary.) poll conducted March 5-6. It has a 4 point margin of error. Obama leads Clinton 66 percent to 31 percent among self-described independents, while Clinton while Clinton leads 44 percent to 31 percent among independents and Republicans. Clinton leads 61 percent to 22 percent among white voters (42 percent of the sample) while Obama leads 87 percent to 11 percent among black voters ( 55 percent of the sample). Twelve percent of likely Democratic voters say they would never vote for Clinton while 21 percent said they would never vote for Obama on the primary.

An InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion survey conducted March 6 shows Obama with a smaller 46 percent to 40 percent lead, with a 5 point margin of error. It does show a similar result to the ARG poll in finding that Clinton led among Independents 52.9 percent to 23.3 percent and among Republicans by 68.1 percent to 28.6 percent. InsiderAdvantage's Matt Towery said, "Overall, I would have expected this to be a bigger margin for Obama. That still might happen. But the race deserves scrutiny, given the potential for Republican and independent participation in a state where Republicans are usually tied unalterably to their party."

Stories from Mississippi on the primary:

• Clinton: "I Want To be There For You" (Jackson Clarion Ledger)
• Clinton Promises a Rebuilt Coast (Biloxi Sun-Herald)

The number of people who say they are Democrats increased 7 points to 52 percent compared to 45 percent in December while those identifying themselves as Republicans dropped slightly from 37 percent to 35 percent, according to an Associated Press-Ipsos poll conducted March 3-5. The margin of error is 3.1 percent.

The poll also reported that only 22 percent of Americans believed the country was heading in the right direction, about the same as December.

In a similar vein, a Gallup poll conducted March 3-5 says 84 percent of Americans believe the economy is getting worse.

Read the Pew Research analysis

Back in 1982, Los Angeles' African-American mayor Tom Bradley was leading Republican George Deukmejian in the polls in their race for the governership. Not only did he carry that lead right up to Election Day, but even exit polls on the day of the vote pointed to a Bradley victory. However, Bradley lost by a narrow vote and post-election studies suggested what has become known as the "Bradley Effect," where fewer white voters cast their votes for him than the polls had predicted.

Hillary Clinton's upset of Barack Obama in New Hampshire revived talk of the "Bradley Effect," and now, Anthony Greenwald, a professor of psychology as well as of political science, has analyzed this season's primary vote to see how much race is still a factor. His finding: pre-election polls did overestimate white support for Obama in states with small black populations, but the polls tended to underestimate Obama's support in states with large black populations. All in all, by Greenwald's math, the pollsters were off on the Obama-Clinton gap by more than 8 percentage points in 8 of 15 primaries.

Read the full ABC News/Washington Post poll

Both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton currently are running ahead of John McCain in a national match-up that reveals sharp differences among the electorate over ideology and the characteristics of the candidates, according to this ABC News/ Washington Post poll conducted Feb. 28- March 2. Obama bests McCain 50 percent to 40 percent, while Clinton leads him 50 percent to 44 percent, with a 3 point margin of error.

The Gallup daily tracking poll conducted March 3-5 shows no change from yesterday, with Clinton ahead 48 percent to 44 percent with a 3 point margin of error.

A SurveyUSA poll conducted March 5 after the Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont results were known has Clinton ahead of McCain 48 percent to 46 percent and Obama tied with McCain at 46 percent each.

Hillary Clinton has opened a big 52 percent to 37 percent lead over Barack Obama in Pennsylvania, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted March 5. The margin of error is 4 percent. Rasmussen says the biggest different between its new poll and one in late February that showed her only 4 points ahead is that she is doing significantly better among men voters, leading Obama by 11 points where he once led by 14. Most of the likely Democratic voters said they had heard of Clinton’s now-famous “3 a.m.” ad asking who parents of a sleeping child wanted to be in the White House if the phone rang there at 3 a.m. Forty eight percent of Democrats said they’d like Clinton to be there to answer it compared to 30 percent for Obama and 15 percent for McCain.

On issues, Pennsylvania voters disapprove of NAFTA 43 percent to 25 percent; half of the voters say the economy is the top issue and Clinton leads Obama there by 28 points; 18 percent cite Iraq and Obama leads in that category by 10 points; and, 13 percent name health care where Clinton again leads by more than 20 points.

See John Baer's column in the Philadelphia Daily News, " Pennsylvania Is Clinton's On Paper ... And Hers To Lose."

For the first time in weeks, Hillary Clinton has taken a statistically significant lead in Gallup's daily tracking poll, besting Barack Obama 48 percent to 44 percent with a 3 point margin of error. The poll was conducted March 2-4 so did not reflect any momentum - or lack of it - from Clinton's victories Tuesday night. Clinton had been in a tie with Obama once last week, and led him by a point in one survey a week earlier, but for the most part had been ahead, in one case, by as much as 8 points.

We'll spare you the John McCain-Mike Huckabee figures today.

So, how accurate were the polls that CQ Politics brought you the day before Tuesday’s primaries? We went back and looked at those released on Monday, excluding Tuesday so that no one had an extra day of polling over the others. Here are the numbers, judge for yourselves.If you want to see the fuller descriptions of the polls in each state, click on the Texas and Ohio links.

Texas final result: Hillary Clinton 51 percent, Barack Obama 47 percent

• American Research Group: Clinton 50 percent, Obama 47 percent
• Belo Texas Tracking Poll: Clinton 46 percent, Obama 46 percent
• Rasmussen Reports: Clinton 48 percent, Obama 47 percent
• Survey USA: Clinton 49 percent, Obama 48 percent
• InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion: Clinton 49, Obama 44
• Zogby: Obama 47 percent, Clinton 44 percent

Ohio final result: Clinton 54 percent, Obama 44 percent

• American Research Group: Clinton 56 percent, Obama 42 percent
• University of Cincinnati Ohio Poll: Clinton 51.3 percent, Obama 42.3 percent
• Rasmussen Reports: Clinton 50 percent, Obama 44 percent
• Public Policy Polling: Clinton 51 percent, Obama 42 percent
• SurveyUSA: Clinton 54 percent, Obama 44 percent
• Suffolk University: Clinton 52 percent, Obama 40 percent
• Quinnipiac: Clinton 49 percent, Obama 45 percent
• Zogby: Obama 47 percent, Clinton 45 percent

Again, to keep everyone equal, these are the polls released Monday. Zogby did release a poll on Tuesday that had Clinton edging ahead 47 percent to 44 percent in Texas and moving into a 44 percent each tie with Obama.

Exit polls based on samplings in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont show an electorate concerned about the economy and their personal finances, and Democratic voters in the Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton camps who concede some of the virtues of the other candidate. The theme of change is still a major factor but not by as much as in earlier primaries. The Hispanic voter turnout in Texas may be headed for a record, and Clinton has a big lead among them.

Check out also Greg's Giroux's analysis of the Ohio exit polls in Net Results.

From CNN:

• Early exit poll results showed Clinton ahead of Obama among Hispanic voters by 64 percent to 35 percent - a must for her. Black voters were supporting Obama by an 83 percent to 16 percent margin.
• In Texas, 26 percent of Republican primary voters said the economy was the top concern, followed by 23 percent who cited terrorism, 21 percent who noted Iraq, and 16 percent who said illegal immigration.
• In Vermont, more than two-thirds of women, and roughly 60 percent of voters age 65 and higher -- usually the core of Clinton's support - went for Obama, in part, because they preferred him on the issue of Iraq.

From MSNBC for Ohio:

• White voters made up 75 percent of the turnout, and Clinton led among them by 61 percent to 38 percent. Black voters accounted for 19 percent of the turnout, and Obama led 89 percent to 11 percent.
• Obama led 67 percent to 32 percent among the 16 percent of voters under 29. Clinton led 67 percent to 23 percent among the 23 percent over 65. The differences were less sharp for voters between those age groups.
• Clinton led 63 percent to 36 percent among the quarter of voters whose education stopped with high school graduation. Obama did better among more educated voters, but not by as large a margin.
• Eleven percent of voters didn't make up their minds until today and, of them, they broke for Clinton by 52 percent to 46 percent.
• Obama and Clinton ran within about 6 points or less of each other on three top issues: the economy, Iraq and health care. Fifty eight percent of voters cited the economy as the top issue compared to 19 percent each for Iraq and health care, and on the economy, Clinton led 52 percent to 47 percent.

Associated Press toplines:

• As polls have been showing for weeks, the economy was the foremost campaign issues for voters in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island.
• Two-thirds of Democratic voters in Texas said they were very or somewhat worried about their personal financial situation, and seven out of 10 answered similarly in the three other states.
• In Ohio, 80 percent of voters blamed international trade for taking away more jobs than it creates.
• Four in ten Clinton voters in Texas and Ohio say that Obama inspires some about the future of the country while one in seven Obama voters conceded that Clinton was more qualified to be commander-in-chief.
• More than two-thirds of white women and older voters stuck with Clinton in Ohio. Obama won more than 9 in 10 blacks, who were about one-fifth of the voters in Ohio. Clinton won the votes of 6 in 10 white men.
• One-fifth of voters in Ohio said race was an issue for them, and among them, eight of ten went for Clinton.
• John McCain was giving Mike Huckabee a run for his money among white, evangelical Christians who made up about 40 percent of the Republican vote.

From CBS News:

• Thirty-two percent of Texas primary voters are Hispanic -- up from the 24 percent in 2004. In Ohio, 20 percent are African American, compared to 14 percent in 2004. Eighteen percent of Texas primary voters today are black, compared to 21 percent in 2004.
• In both Ohio and Texas, a majority of Democratic voters say superdelegates should cast their vote based on the results of the primaries. A third say the superdelegates should support the candidate who has the best chance of winning in November.

From ABC News:

• The ability to bring change trumps experience in voters minds by 20 points in Ohio and 15 points in Texas, but that was lower than Wisconsin where the margin was 32 points.
• Turnout among women looks to be up in Texas and Ohio.
• Early exit polling suggests a smaller-than-previous turnout among union voters in Ohio.

Read the RT Strategies/Cook Political Report poll

The Rt Strategies/Cook Political Report poll conducted Feb. 28 - March 2 shows Barack Obama leading John McCain in a general election match-up by 47 percent to 38 percent with a 3.1 percent margin of error. Some toplines from the poll:

• Obama leads among black voters 79 percent to 7 percent and among Hispanic voters 63 percent to 22 percent. McCain leads among white voters 44 percent to 40 percent.
• McCain leads among men 54 percent to 43 percent while Obama leads among women 51 percent to 31 percent.
• McCain ties Obama in the 35-to-49 age group, but Obama leads in all the others.
• Obama leads among all education levels.
• The only region McCain bests Obama is in the South.

The numbers have flipped in Texas since yesterday in the Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle poll conducted by Zogby March 1-3. Today, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 47 percent to 44 percent, with a 3.4 percent margin of error, the opposite of what this poll said yesterday. In Ohio, Clinton and Obama are tied at 44 percent each, which contrasts to a majority of yesterday’s polls indicating that Clinton was putting a little daylight between herself and Obama.

John McCain leads Mike Huckabee 59 percent to 29 percent in Ohio and 57 percent to 29 percent in Texas.

Read the ABC News/Washington Post poll

Democrats say by 67 percent to 29 percent that Hillary Clinton should stay in the race even if she loses in either Ohio or Texas today, but that number falls to 45 percent if she loses both, according to the ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted Feb. 28 - March 2. Nearly half of Obama supporters say Clinton should stay in the race if she loses one of the two states. But Democrats overall prefer Obama as their candidate in November by 50 percent to 43 percent, with a 4 point margin of error. In December, Clinton had led Obama 52 percent to 23 percent. The Wall Street Journal has a piece today about Clinton's prospects for fighting on.

Read the full USA Today/Gallup poll

Americans are divided 46 percent to 46 percent on whether Barack Obama has enough experience to be President, according to this USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Feb. 21-24. By contrast, 65 percent of voters believe Hillary Clinton has the right experience and 70 percent say that of John McCain. Looked at another way, Gallup asked who among the three is most ready to become President, and 49 percent said McCain, 30 percent said Clinton and 16 percent said Obama. Just among Democrats, 56 percent said Clinton was the most ready, 21 percent said Obama and 18 percent said McCain. Forty-nine percent of Independents named McCain first, followed by Clinton at 25 percent and Obama at 18 percent. Eighty-six percent of Republicans named McCain.

All that being said, experience is not the most important, or only, factor to voters. Forty-two percent said the most important factor was leadership and vision, 34 percent said it was the candidate's position on issues, and 22 percent cited experience.

An ABC News/Washington Post poll published today asked Democrats the question in a different way: which is more important, strength and experience, or new direction and new ideas? The responses were evenly split, 45 percent and 46 percent respectively.

Read the American Research Group poll

Following up the pack of all of today's Ohio and Texas polls, American Research Group gives Hillary Clinton a big 56 percent to 42 percent lead in Ohio, and a 50 percent to 47 percent lead in Texas. Both polls were conducted March2-3 and given that the margin of error is 4 percent for each, Clinton's Texas lead is not statistically significant. The majority of the polls earlier today gave Clinton a lead in Ohio but had the race to close to predict in Texas.

Texas polls on the eve of the primary - with the exception of one - show Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton running tied or within the margin of error of each other. But even that dissenting pollster described a race that is "up for grabs." The race may hinge on how well each of them turn out core blocs of supporters, particularly Hispanic and black voters. This differs somewhat from Ohio where some polls showed Hillary Clinton opening up a lead beyond the margin of error.

• A Belo Texas Tracking poll has the candidates tied at 46 percent each with a 3.6 percent margin of error. The poll was conducted Feb. 27 - March 1.Clinton leads among 68 percent to 26 percent among Hispanic voters who make up 24 percent of the sample while Obama leads 79 percent to 8 percent among black voters who make up 22 percent of the sample. White voters, who comprise 49 percent of the sample, favor Clinton 51 percent to 42 percent. Clinton leads among women by about the same margin that Obama leads her among men. Belo says it believes the race will be decided by black and Hispanic voter turnout. Twenty-five percent of Texas Democrats pick the economy as the most important issue and they favor Obama by 47 percent to 43 percent; 17 percent cite health care, and they back Clinton 47 percent to 43 percent, and among the 16 percent who singled out Iraq, Obama led 62 percent to 37 percent.
• Rasmussen Reports also says turnout will be the key. It's survey taken March 2 has Clinton ahead 48 percent to 47 percent with 5 percent undecided and a 4 point margin of error. In this survey, Clinton leads among voters most concerned about the economy and, as with the Belo poll, she also leads on the health care issue while Obama has more support from those most concerned about Iraq.
• The Zogby poll conducted Feb. 29-March2 has has Obama leading Clinton 47 percent to 44 percent with a 3.7 percent margin of error. Zogby says, "Clinton continues to enjoy a sizable lead among Hispanic voters, but Obama has made gains in the last day among white voters, where the two are now tied." Obama has a big lead among voters under 30 while Clinton enjoys a sizable margin among voters over 65.
• SurveyUSA has Clinton and Obama in a dead heat at 49 percent for Obama to 48 percent for Clinton with a 3.5 percent margin of error. The poll was conducted March 1-2. Clinton leads 64 percent to 33 percent among Hispanics who make up 32 percent of the sample (larger than some of the other surveys); she leads 50 percent to 46 percent among whites who make up 48 percent; and, Obama leads 70 percent to 18 percent among black voters, who make up 17 percent of the sample. The two run pretty evenly among the 35 to 64 age group, but Obama is way ahead among 18-to-34 voters as is Clinton among voters over 65.
• The exception in this bunch is an Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion poll conducted March 2 That has Clinton ahead 49 percent to 44 percent with 7 percent undecided and a 3.8 percent margin of error. “It is entirely possible that we have missed the mark here, given that so many pollsters have shown Sen. Obama with a growing lead," said Matt Towery of InsiderAdvantage. "But I would note that the most recent surveys all indicate a tightening of the race; and also that the breakdown by demographics in our survey is amazingly similar to the PPP numbers. If nothing else, it appears that Texas truly is up for grabs.”

A new round of polls are out this morning on Ohio. Two of them show Hillary Clinton with leads over Barack Obama beyond the margin of error; one gives her a lead a whisker above the margin of error; and a fourth has the race a statistical tie. It's a different story in Texas where most of the polls agree the race is to close to predict.

• The Ohio Poll is making Hillary Clinton the clear favorite over Barack Obama in tomorrow's vote, putting her out in front 51.3 percent to 42.3 percent with a 3.9 percent margin of error. John Edwards still appears in this poll and he got 6 percent. The poll was conducted Feb. 28- Mar. 2. Polls yesterday by Zogby and Mason-Dixon showed a much closer race, although American Research Group on Saturday had Clinton in front beyond the margin of error. John McCain leads Mike Huckabee 53.4 percent to 23.7 percent with a 5.4 percent margin of error.
• A March 2 survey by Rasmussen Reports also has Clinton holding off what had been a steady surge by Obama. Rasmussen has Clinton ahead of Obama 50 percent to 44 percent, with 6 percent undecided, and a 3 point margin of error. The issue of the economy has clearly been breaking in Clinton's favor, according to this poll. Fifty-seven percent of voters cite it as the top issue in the campaign and Clinton leads among them 52 percent to 43 percent. Fifty-seven percent of Ohio Democrats said that NAFTA had been a bad deal for the country, and Clinton leads Obama among those by a bare 49 percent to 46 percent.
• Public Policy Polling has Clinton ahead of Obama 51 to 42 percent with a 2.9 percent margin of error. Undecideds are 6 percent. Clinton leads 67 percent to 30 percent among Hispanic voters (29 percent of the sample) and 58 percent to 37 percent among white voters (45 percent of the sample) while Obama leads 78 percent to 13 percent among black voters (22 percent of the sample). Both run pretty evently among all age groups except those over 65 where Clinton has a big lead.The poll was conducted Mar. 1-2.
• SurveyUSA has Clinton ahead of Obama 54 percent to 44 percent with a 3.4 percent margin of error in a poll taken March 1-2. Like some of the other polls, both run fairly evenly among all age groups except those over 65 who heavily favor Clinton. The same heavy edges Clinton has among white voters and Obama among black voters prevail in this poll too. The issue on which there is the biggest gap between the candidates is health care where Clinton leads 61 percent to 37 percent.
• A Suffolk University poll conducted March 1-2 has Clinton ahead of Obama 52 percent to 40 percent with 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.9 percent. “Hillary Clinton may be carried to victory on the backs of the Buckeye State’s older white males," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. "Although Clinton carried women and Obama carried men overall, it appears that Obama’s weak support from older men may make the difference."
• Quinnipiac says Clinton's lead in Ohio has "shrunk" to 49 percent to 45 percent over Obama. The Feb. 27- March 2 poll had a 3.5 percent margin of error. Clinton leads among women 55 percent to 39 percent while Obama leads among men by the same margin. Clinton leads 64 percent to 30 percent among white voters while Obama takes 90 percent of black voters. "The big unknown is turnout. It's not just whether it is higher than normal, which everyone expects it to be," said Peter Brown of Quinnipac. "The key question is whether turnout is disproportionately higher among some demographic groups than others."
• Zogby has Obama ahead of Clinton 47 to 45 percent in Ohio with a 3.6 percent margin of error in a poll conducted Feb. 29- Mar. 2. There are no surprises here in terms of trends among demographic groups. Obama leads Clinton among men, Clinton leads Obama among women; Obama is stronger with voters under 50, Clinton is stronger with voters over 50. Among Republicans, McCain leads Huckabee 61 percent to 28 percent.

Here's another in the series of state match-ups for the general election that we've been bringing you -- this time New Jersey. Rasmussen Reports says a Feb. 27 survey found that Hillary Clinton would trounce John McCain in her neighbouring state by 50 percent to 39 percent while Barack Obama is behind John McCain 45 percent to 43 percent, with a 4 point margin of error. Rasmussen notes that this is one of the few states (Florida is another) where Clinton outperforms Obama in a general election test against McCain.

Check here for the other states we have wrapped up.

Gallup's daily tracking poll has shown a slow but stead increase In Barack Obama's lead over Hillary Clinton for five surveys now. The latest, conducted Feb. 28-Mar. 1, has him ahead of Clinton 50 percent to 42 percent with a 3 point margin of error. John McCain leads Mike Huckabee 63 percent to 22 percent.

Ohio and Texas start voting in just two days and the races in both places are still too close to predict. But there's also a lot of interesting results on issues and demographics, which we'll get to.

• A McClatchy/MSNBC poll conducted by Mason-Dixon shows Barack Obama ahead of Hillary Clinton in Texas by a statistically insignificant 46 percent to 45 percent given the 4 point margin of error. Eight percent were undecided. The poll was conducted Feb. 27-29.
• Zogby has Obama up 47 percent to 43 percent in Texas, a slightly wider lead the previous day’s 45 percent to 43 percent lead, but this is just a whisker beyond the 3.7 percent margin of error. The poll was taken Feb. 28- Mar. 1.
• In Ohio, Zogby has Clinton ahead 47 percent to 46 percent, with the same margin of error. They were tied at 45 percent each the day before.
• A Mason-Dixon poll for the Cleveland Plain Dealer released yesterday had Clinton ahead of Obama 47 percent to 43 percent with a 4 point margin of error. Nine percent were undecided. The poll was conducted Feb. 27-29

American Research Group polls of Ohio and Texas has Hillary Clinton ahead in Ohio by 51 percent to 44 percent and the two tied in Texas at 47 percent each. The polls were conducted Feb. 29 - March 1 and have a 4 point margin of error. Obama has a double digit lead among younger voters in Texas, but less of a margin among them in Ohio. Compare this to the Zogby poll released earlier Saturday.

Read the Reuters/C-Span/Zogby poll

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are tied at 45 percent each in Texas while Obama holds a statsitically insignificant 45 percent to 43 percent lead in Ohio, according to this survey conducted Feb. 27-29. It has a 3.8 percent margin of error. But while both these races are competitive as far as popular vote, the closeness of each race and the fact that Obama is showing significant strength in big urban areas (Dallas and Houston, in Texas; Cleveland and Columbus, in Ohio) augurs bad news for Clinton in the delegate chase. (For a good analysis of the challenge facing Clinton on delegates, read Marc Ambinder's "Inside Delegate Math").

In Harris County, home of Houston, breakdowns provided the Houston Chronicle by Zogby have Obama leading 50 percent to 41 percent. Obama runs stronger than Clinton among higher-income voters while she does best with low-income voters. Clinton has 65 percent support among Hispanic voters and Obama enjoys 73 percent support among black voters.

On the GOP side, John McCain leads Mike Huckabee 58 percent to 23 percent in Ohio and 54 percent to 31 percent in Texas. The poll found that McCain has been having some success reducing resistance to his candidacy from conservatives.