Read the full Pew Research Center poll
Barack Obama has built a "broad-based advantage" over Hillary Clinton among Democrats nationally, and also leads John McCain in a general election match-up in a new Pew Research Center survey conducted Feb. 20-24. But the poll also found that Obama faces some important challenges ahead.
Obama leads Clinton among Democratic primary voters by 49 percent to 40 percent and 70 percent of those believe he is most likely to win the party's nomination. The margin of error for this sample is 5.5 percent. Both Obama and Clinton both lead McCain in a general election match-up, although Obama leads by a slightly larger margin, 50 percent to 43 percent compared to Clinton's 50 to 45 percent. The margin of error for all voters is 3 percent.
Obama's lead over Clinton reflects the fact that support for Clinton has "slipped all across the board," Pew says. The only groups in which she now leads are white women voters, voters over the age of 65 and voters with household incomes of less than $30,000 a year.
But Obama faces a number of potential hazards. Twenty percent of white Democrats say they would support McCain if Obama is nominated. Asked what one word best described Obama, most of registered voters - 45 percent - said "inexperienced." Over half of voters say Obama has not provided enough information about his plans and policies, in contrast to Clinton and McCain.
This survey is full of good stuff:
- Going back to the "presidential candidates in a word" question, the top selections for Obama, after "inexperience," were charismatic (32 percent), intelligent (25 percent) and change 23 percent. For Clinton they were experienced (34 percent), strong (16 percent), untrustworthy (16 percent) and intelligent (15 percent). For McCain they were old (55 percent), honest (32 percent), experienced (29 percent), and patriot (21 percent).
- On McCain's age, Pew said 32 percent of voters believed McCain was too old at 71 to be President. When that question came up about the then-72 year old Bob Dole in 1996, 34 percent believed that. A Gallup poll conducted Feb. 21-24 and released today had different figures on this score. It found 20 percent of Americans thought the 71 year old McCain was too old to be President, but that was less than the 27 percent who said that of Dole when he ran in 1996. (Only 13 percent said Obama, 46, was too young to be President). See an interesting opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal about McCain and the age question.
- Democrats Say by a 2-to-1 margin that superdelegates should support the candidates that won the most support in the caucuses and primaries.
- Expected to benefit McCain, at least some, given his strong stance on Iraq, is that more Americans believe the war is going well than previously. Forty-eight percent expressed that view compared to an equal number who said the opposite, but that compared to the 67 percent who said a year ago that the war was not going well.
- Obama has greater personal appeal among Independents than Clinton or McCain.
- When it comes to comfort levels among Republicans about McCain, 47 percent of all Republicans say ideologically he is "about right," but 46 percent of self-described conservatives say he is not conservative enough. His overall favorability ratings among Republicans is now 81 percent compared to 66 percent last December.
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