One reason to follow the polls looking at general election match-ups state-by-state is to measure the results against Barack Obama’s claim that he can reshape the political map by turning out hordes of new voters, capturing the lion’s share of independents, and even bite off some Republican votes. There’s a good piece in today’s Washington Post on Obama’s red state prospects. See also a piece in the Austin American-Statesman about Obama attracting some disenchanted Republicans.
Poll Tracker reported Friday on eight state polls conducted by SurveyUSA where Hillary Clinton had statistically significant leads over John McCain in five, Obama in four while McCain led both Democrats convincingly in two. So, add to that list Rasmussen Reports polls today in Wisconsin and New Mexico which show McCain and Obama essentially tied in both places, and Clinton losing in both.
Obama and McCain are essentially tied in Wisconsin at 44 percent to 43 percent respectively in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Feb.21. McCain would beat Clinton by a decisive 50 percent to 38 percent. Obama leads McCain among independents not affiliated with either party, while Clinton trails McCain on that score. The economy is cited as the top issue of the campaign by 38 percent of voters, national security is second at 14 percent and Iraq is third at 13 percent. McCain does better than either Democrat on national security. The margin of error is 4.5 percent and the poll was conducted Feb.21.
The results in New Mexico are very much like Wisconsin. Rasmussen puts Obama and McCain at a 44 percent each tie. But, like Wisconsin, McCain runs ahead of Clinton by a comfortable 50 percent to 38 percent. And also like Wisconsin, Obama runs much better than McCain among voters unaffiliated with either party. About a third of New Mexico voters say the economy is the top campaign issue, and both Democrats lead McCain among them, although Clinton’s lead is within the poll’s 4.5 percent margin of error. This poll was conducted Feb.17-18.
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Comments
There is no doubt that Obama is the stronger general election candidate against McCain in traditional red/purple states. But two points are overlooked when the focus is solely on the FY08 presidential horse race.
First, even if Obama's chances to take some of these red states in 2008 are slim, he will be of great benefit to down-ticket Democratic candidates, whereas Clinton would have negative coat tails.
Second, even if Obama doesn't take some of these red states in 2008, he has demonstrated a unique capacity to attract young voters to the process. If young voters begin the habit of voting Democratic, the chances increase that these red states will turn blue over time.
In both cases, it's clear that Obama's candidacy will be a tremendous boost to Howard Dean's 50 state strategy to revitalize the Democratic Party in all regions of America.
Posted by: Spike3905
| February 24, 2008 1:23 PM
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