Two more pollsters have weighed in on Ohio since our report earlier today and while they all show Hillary Clinton's lead eroding to some extent, the latest, Public Policy Polling shows the race even tighter yet.
And she faces more trouble in Texas where an American Research Group poll survey said she led him by just one point, with a 4 point margin of error.
Clinton leads Obama in Public Policy's Ohio poll by 50 to 46 percent, exactly its 4 point margin of error. The survey was conducted Feb.23-24. Dean Debnam, head of the polling firm, described Clinton as being in "big trouble" and said the race in the state "is trending heavily towards Obama."
Forty-six percent of Democrats said the economy was the top issue for them, followed by Iraq at 25 percent. Clinton led Obama 56 percent to 38 percent among white voters who made up 78 percent of the sample, while Obama led 76 percent to 24 percent among black voters, who made up 17 percent.
On the Republican side, John McCain led Mike Huckabee 55 percent to 30 percent. Thirty-four percent of Republicans cited the economy as the top issue, followed by Iraq at 19 percent and moral and family values at 18 percent.
Another pollster - American Research Group - gave Clinton a 49 percent to 39 percent lead in Ohio with a 4 point margin of error, similar to the Quinnipiac University and University of Cincinnati polls we reported earlier today. This poll was conducted Feb.23-24.
The demographics will sound familiar. Clinton leads among women 59 percent to 31 percent, Obama leads among black voters 79 percent to 15 percent. Clinton appears to be holding her own here among younger voters, unlike some other states. She is virtually tied with Obama 43 percent to 42 percent among the 18 to 49 group, who make up 61 percent of likely primary voters.
In Texas, where other polls have been showing Obama catching or passing Clinton, ARG says Obama leads 50 percent to 42 percent, a 2 point pickup since Feb.13-14. Clinton leads Obama among woman (53 percent to 42 percent), among white voters (52 percent to 40 percent) and among Hispanic voters (50 percent to 40 percent). Obama leads among men, 59 percent to 30 percent, and black voters, 83 percent to 9 percent. Men comprise 46 percent of likely primary voters, whites comprise 52 percent, and Hispanics comprise 24 percent. However, other pollsters have pointed to possible large Hispanic turnout scenarios that would produce numbers above that.
The Rasmussen Texas poll, conducted Feb.24, put Clinton over Obama by 46 percent to 45 percent, with a 4 percent margin of error, compared to a 3 point lead last week, and 16 points a week earlier. Rasmussen is projecting a slightly smaller-than-expected turnout of Hispanics, down 5 points to 26 percent.
On the Republican side, ARG has McCain ahead of Huckabee by only 45 percent to 41 percent, with 10 percent for home state Rep. Ron Paul. The margin of error is 4 points.
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Comments
"Clinton leads Obama in Public Policy's Ohio poll by 50 to 46 percent, exactly its 4 point margin of error. "
Why do you write "exactly it 4pt. MOE"? Are you just trying to save the effort of writing a separate sentence?
The implication that you leave is that the difference between the candidates is just on the edge of being significant. But surely you know that that is not true - margins of error are applied to both values, in this case plus or minus 4 for each candidate. So the ranges overlap.
With a 4 pt. MOE, there would need to be an 8 pt. gap for the margin to be significant at a 95% confidence level.
Posted by: Tano
| February 25, 2008 4:31 PM
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