Poll Tracker

SurveyUSA and Rasmussen Reports both put out a pile of polls Friday on states that vote on Super Tuesday.

Storylines?

John McCain leads Mitt Romney in all the states in this round-up, except in Romney's home state of Massachusetts. Hillary Clinton is leading Barack Obama in the Northeast, but he is stronger in the South. McCain gets a big boost from voters who describe themselves as moderate. The ethnic divide among Democrats is sharp. With a few exceptions, Clinton runs significantly better among white and Hispanic voters, and Obama runs better among black voters. (For an interesting analysis of the Hispanic-black divide, check out this piece by veteran political writer Richard Reeves. And also, a New York Times piece about Clinton's education on race.).

Election Central over at the Talking Points Memo blog says its look at all the Feb. 5 polls show what the national polls do -- that on the Democratic side, Clinton is leading but the race is inexorably tightening up. On the Republican side, McCain looks poised to sew things up. See Election Central's rundowns of the Democratic and Republican poll standings.

Also, check out the regional wraps CQ Politics has been doing on key issues in Super Tuesday states. We've posted two so far: the Northeast and the Midwest.

• New York: SurveyUSA has Clinton leading Obama 54 percent to 38 percent. Perhaps because of her homestate status, New York seems to be one of the few places where Obama is not way out in front with younger voters. He beats Clinton 50 percent to 46 percent in this group, with a 3.2 percent margin of error. The ethnic divide is strong here: Clinton leads among white voters by 15 points, Obama leads among black voters by 25 points, and Clinton bests Obama among Hispanic voters by 45 points. In the Republican race, McCain is beating Romney by more than two-to-one with Huckabee in single digits.
• New Jersey: Clinton leads Obama 51 percent to 39 percent. Looking at the demographics, Clinton leads here among the 18-34 voter group by 49 percent to 42 percent (the margin of error is 3.9 percent). A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Jan. 30 shows Clinton ahead of Obama by a similar margin, but notes that her lead has dropped since its last survey. As in New York, she has a big lead among white voters in the SurveyUSA results, Obama has a big lead among black voters, but in this state, Clinton’s lead among Hispanic voters is smaller, at 47 percent to 36 percent. Among Republicans, McCain has a big 48 percent to 29 percent lead over Romney with Huckabee at 9 percent. His advantage over Romney among moderate voters is 53 percent to 14 percent. The Rasmussen Reports poll has McCain leading Romney 43 percent to 29 percent, but notes that this represents a gain in the standings for him.
• Massachusetts: No surprise here. Rasmussen Reports says Romney leads in his home state by a 55 percent to 23 percent margin over McCain.
• Connecticut: This poll differs from two other recent polls – an American Research Group poll that had Clinton over Obama by 47 percent to 38 percent, and a Rasmussen Reports poll that had them tied. SurveyUSA says Obama has a slim lead of 48 percent to 44 percent over Clinton, with a 3.9 percent margin of error. Obama trounces Clinton by 26 points among voters 18-to-34, and by 13 percent among voters 35-to-49. Unlike many other states, he is running even with Clinton among whites, but like other states, he leads by a large margin among black voters (75 percent to 21 percent) while Clinton leads among Hispanics 73 percent to 21 percent. Among Republicans, McCain leads Romney 53 percent to 31 percent with Huckabee at 6 percent. Again, moderate voters give McCain a big boost.
• Illinois:Rasmussen Reports has Obama ahead of Clinton in his home state by 60 percent to 24 percent in a survey conducted Jan. 29 before John Edwards dropped out.
• Missouri: In a poll conducted Jan. 30-31, SurveyUSA said Clinton led Obama 48 percent to 44 percent, with a margin of error of 3.9 percent. Obama was way ahead among voters 18-34 (61 percent to 31 percent) and among black voters (76 percent to 17 percent). Among Hispanic voters, where Clinton has a stronger hold, Obama out-polled her 57 percent to 41 percent. Clinton led among white voters 54 percent to 38 percent. (Check out a story from the St. Louis Post Dispatch about the fight for the black vote here). The Republican race is competitive with McCain leading at 34 percent with Romney at 30 percent and Huckabee at 28 percent. The three run fairly evenly among conservatives, but McCain has a clear lead among self-described moderates. The margin of error is 4.5 percent.
• Alabama: Clinton is tied with Obama at 47 percent. Obama has a 17 point lead among 18-34 year olds and almost a 50 point lead among black voters, according to SurveyUSA. But unlike Missouri, Clinton retains a big edge among Hispanic voters, 65 percent to 29 percent. In the GOP race, McCain leads Huckabee 40 percent to 31 percent with a 4 point margin of error. Romney is third at 20 percent. Huckabee and McCain are about even among conservative voters and voters who say they attend church regularly. But McCain is way ahead among moderates. An Alabama State University poll released yesterday had Clinton losing her lead in the state with Obama now ahead by about 7 points. This poll included John Edwards. This poll showed a tighter race between McCain and Huckabee than SurveyUSA.