Another poll is out this afternoon on the race in Ohio and it shows a statistically-even contest with Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama 47 percent to 45 percent, within the survey's 3 point margin of error. This Rasmussen Reports poll is similar in the results to polls by American Research Group and Zogby which both had Clinton leading Obama within the margin of error or close to it. But it differs from a Fox poll earlier today that gave Clinton a 46 percent to 38 percent lead, with a 4 point margin of error. Rasmussen says "while Clinton’s support has remained stable, Barack Obama has been steadily inching up in the poll," but puts the race in the "too close to call" category. The Rasmussen poll was conducted Feb. 25. Fox and Zogby were conducted Feb. 26-28, and ARG Feb. 27-28.

Almost half of Republicans say that Mike Huckabee should continue his campaign despite John McCain's seemingly insurmountable lead, according to Gallup. The Feb. 21-24 survey found 49 percent said he should continue and 46 percent said he should drop out. Predictably, conservatives want Huckabee to keep running by a 54 percent to 42 percent margin compared to moderates who say 57 percent to 38 percent that he should withdraw.

Polls in Texas and Ohio by Fox News/Opinion Dynamics show a closer race in Texas than two earlier polls today that had Barack Obama ahead beyond the margins of erro. And Fox reported a bigger lead in Ohio for Hillary Clinton than those polls reported.

In Texas, Obama led Clinton 48 percent to 45 percent, within the 4 point margin of error. The poll was conducted Feb. 26-28. Seventeen percent of Clinton supporters said they could change their mind by Tuesday, while 21 percent of Obama supporters said that. Democratic voters listed, in this order of importance, the issues of most concern to them: the economy (32 percent), Iraq 25 percent) and health care (23 percent). Clinton leads among women 50 percent to 43 percent with the flip side being that Obama leads among men 52 percent to 39 percent. As other polls have shown, Obama has a big lead among voters under 45. The two run even among whites, Obama leads 87 percent to 9 percent among black voters, and Clinton leads 67 percent to 29 percent among Hispanic voters.

In Ohio, Clinton has a 46 percent to 38 percent lead, with a 4 point margin of error. Fourteen percent of voters answered "don't know." Ohio Democrats seem to have their minds made up about sticking with their choices a little more than their counterparts in Texas. The economy was more heavily on the minds of voters in economically-struggling Ohio, cited by 47 percent of them as the top issue. Health care was next at 22 percent and Iraq third at 19 percent. Another difference between Ohio and Texas is that Obama does not enjoy a big edge here with voters under 45, something corroborated by one of the other polls today. Clinton leads among white voters 50 percent to 34 percent, while Obama has a 72 percent to 9 percent margin among black voters. (American Research Group had white voters as 82 percent of the sample and black voters at 16 percent).

Barack Obama picked up a point over Hillary Clinton in Gallup's daily tracking poll and now leads her 49 percent to 42 percent nationally, the third straight day he has had a lead beyond the 3 point margin of error. The poll was conducted Feb. 26-28. John McCain Leads Mike Huckabee 60 percent to 26 percent.

Polls today offer a split decision for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton for the big primaries on Tuesday, giving him the lead in Texas and Clinton a small edge in Ohio. That being said, while both races are competitive, the big question that will loom next week if Clinton scores modest popular vote victories is whether they will be enough to stop Obama’s momentum, particularly since he would still likely pick up a good share of delegates.

American Research Group and Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle (a Zogby poll) have Obama leading in Texas by roughly similar margins. ARG puts the numbers at 51 percent to 44 percent in Obama’s favor, with a 4 point margin of error, while Zogby has it 48 percent to 42 percent for Obama with a 4.1 percent margin of error. The ARG poll was conducted Feb. 27-28 and the Zogby survey covered Feb. 26-28. Both polls say one key element of Obama’s strength is among younger voters. Voters under 50 made up 60 percent of ARG’s sample and Obama’s lead among them is 60 percent to 35 percent. Clinton leads among Hispanic voters 55 percent to 41 percent (26 percent of the sample) and Obama leads among black voters 86 percent to 8 percent (22 percent of the sample).

In Ohio, both polls show Clinton clinging to a narrow lead. ARG has her ahead in its Feb. 27-28 survey by 50 percent to 45 percent, with a 4 point margin of error. Zogby’s Feb. 26-28 survey makes it closer: Clinton ahead by 44 percent to 42 percent with a 4.1 percent margin of error and 9 percent “not sure.” ARG has Clinton ahead among white voters 56 percent to 37 percent (82 percent of the sample) while Obama leads among black voters 80 percent to 17 percent (16 percent of the sample). Unlike Texas, Obama’s lead over Clinton among younger voters is only 5 points.

Zogby also had Republican poll results showing John McCain ahead of Mike Huckabee 53 percent to 27 percent in Texas, with home state Rep. Ron Paul at 11 percent. In Ohio, McCain eclipses Huckabee 62 percent to 19 percent.

Read the full USA Today/Gallup poll

The USA Today/Gallup poll says that 57 percent of baseball fans say legendary pitcher Roger Clemens lied to Congress when he denied ever using steroids. Only 31 percent believed him. The fans' call on Clemens pitch to lawmakers was beyond the margin of error, which was 5 percent in this survey conducted Feb. 21-24. However, 62 percent of fans said Clemens still should be elected to the Hall of Fame, so he fared better than Barry Bonds. Fans rejected Bonds as a Hall of Famer by 50 percent to 46 percent.

While the big national polls are commanding most of the attention, we try to bring to you a steady diet of the hypothetical Republican vs. Democrat match-ups on a state-by-state basis. There were new polls for Florida, Tennessee and North Carolina on Thursday, all of them favorable to John McCain against either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton.

So, we’ll give you the thumbnails on those, as well as the state polls we’ve posted from elsewhere in recent weeks.

Read the InsiderAdvantage story

An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Wednesday night has Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama in Texas 47 percent to 43 percent with 10 percent undecided and a 4 point margin of error. InsiderAdvantage's Matt Towery says: "This is a classic sign that a race might be starting to turn. We see the undecided voters increasing and unsettled numbers in key age brackets. Moreover, Clinton has expanded her lead among Hispanic voters, while holding onto white votes. She has dropped slightly among women, but has gained among men...If these trends continue over the coming days, then it might be fair to say the race is slowly drifting Clinton’s way."

See other recent Texas polls here and here.

Read the full Pew Research Center poll

Barack Obama has built a "broad-based advantage" over Hillary Clinton among Democrats nationally, and also leads John McCain in a general election match-up in a new Pew Research Center survey conducted Feb. 20-24. But the poll also found that Obama faces some important challenges ahead.

Obama leads Clinton among Democratic primary voters by 49 percent to 40 percent and 70 percent of those believe he is most likely to win the party's nomination. The margin of error for this sample is 5.5 percent. Both Obama and Clinton both lead McCain in a general election match-up, although Obama leads by a slightly larger margin, 50 percent to 43 percent compared to Clinton's 50 to 45 percent. The margin of error for all voters is 3 percent.

Obama's lead over Clinton reflects the fact that support for Clinton has "slipped all across the board," Pew says. The only groups in which she now leads are white women voters, voters over the age of 65 and voters with household incomes of less than $30,000 a year.

After four straight daily surveys that showed Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton essentially even in its daily tracking polls, today's Gallup offering has Obama ahead 48 percent to 43 percent for the second straight day. The margin of error is 3 percent and the poll was conducted Feb. 25-27. . John McCain leads Mike Huckabee 61 percent to 24 percent. The daily tracking poll has been showing more modest national leads for Obama than several other major polls, including the one that Gallup does for USA Today.

Barack Obama has moved ahead of Hillary Clinton in Texas, according to a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Feb. 27, but his lead equals the margin of error and there is still evidence of volatilty among Democratic voters. But this and other Texas polls still suggest the trend is in his favor.

Obama leads Clinton 48 percent to 44 percent, with 8 percent undecided. Twelve percent of voters said they could still change their minds. The margin of error is 4 points. Rasmussen notes that Clinton's lead among Hispanic voters, a group she has counted on heavily, is down to 7 points.

Rasmussen also released results of a February 26 survey of voters in Pennsylvania, whose April 22 primary would be the next big test if Clinton is still competitive after Texas and Ohio on Tuesday. Clinton's once-large lead over Obama in Pennsylvania has now shrunk to 46 percent to 42 percent with a 3 point margin of error. This squares with a Quinnipiac University poll published yesterday.

Read the full USA Today/Gallup analysis

Gallup parsed through its polling for Feb. 21-24 to see what kinds of differences there'd be in support among different demographic groups for the Republican and Democratic presidential candidates depending on whether it was Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton running against John McCain.

Here is what Gallup found:

• There would be a bigger gender gap in a McCain-Clinton contest because men are much more likely to support McCain than Clinton. Clinton's 51 percent to 45 percent edge among women over McCain is not much larger than Obama's 49 percent to 45 percent advantage, but McCain leads Clinton among men by 15 points compared to only 5 points for Obama.
• Younger voters are likely to prefer the Democratic candidate but the choice of Obama would widen that gap. Obama outruns McCain among the 18-to-29 age group by 67 percent to 28 percent. Clinton's lead in this group is 55 percent to 40 percent. The second biggest gap would be among voters over 65 in a McCain-Obama match-up, in which McCain is on top 57 percent to 35 percent.
• The biggest difference in the match-ups when it comes to level of education would be in a McCain-Obama race where McCain leads Obama 56 percent to 37 percent among voters who did not attend college.
• On candidate characteristics - experience, the issues, and leadership/vision - Clinton and McCain are about tied on experience and leadership/vision, but he leads her on the issues. Obama and McCain are tied or close on issues and leadership/vision, but he outpolls Obama on the experience measure by 65 percent to 28 percent .

Read the Pew Research Center's weekly News Interest Index

Americans who were aware of the New York Times story last week about John McCain's relationship with a female lobbyist in 2000 say by a 57 percent to 33 percent margin that The Times did the wrong thing in publishing the story. The piece stirred controversy largely because the Times suggested McCain may have had a personal relationship with the lobbyist, but could not document it for certain. The Times' Public Editor also cited that as a flaw in the story. The view of the story strongly depended on the reader's partisan ties: Republicans said the Times was wrong by a 76 percent to 16 percent margin, while Democrats were more closely divided among themselves, with 47 percent saying The Times was wrong and 45 percent supporting the paper. The margin of error for this weekly survey was 3.5 percent.

Rasmussen Reports weighed in on public views of The Times in general. Its poll, conducted Feb.25-26, said 24 percent of American voters have a favorable view of The Times, 44 percent a negative view, and 31 percent are not sure. Liberals like it by a 58 percent to 18 percent margin while conservatives dislike it 69 percent to 9 percent.

Read the full Quinnipiac University poll

Hillary Clinton is already struggling to hold off Barack Obama in next Tuesday’s Ohio and Texas primaries, but if she manages to do that, she looks to face yet another stiff challenge from Obama in the next big state, Pennsylvania on April 22.

Obama has closed to within 6 points of Clinton in Pennsylvania, where she now leads by only 49 percent to 43 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted Feb.21-25. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. In mid-February, she had a 52 percent to 36 percent lead in Quinnipiac’s survey and a 44 percent to 32 percent lead in a poll by Franklin & Marshall. Obama’s surge was powered by younger votes in the 18-to-44 age group who now support him over Clinton by 58 percent to 41 percent, a reversal from Clinton’s 52 percent to 41 percent lead in the previous poll.

John McCain would run a competitive race against either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton in the general election, according to a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll conducted Feb.21-25. McCain leads Obama 44 percent to 42 percent, within the poll’s 3 point margin of error, and bests Clinton 46 percent to 40 percent.

Although a clear majority of those polled said they did not support the war in Iraq, a position with which Obama and Clinton agree, about half of those polled said McCain was better equipped to deal with the issue. McCain fared better than Obama on issues of the economy (42 percent to 34 percent), but voters preferred Clinton to McCain on the issue by 43 percent to 34 percent.

In the Democratic race, Obama leads Clinton nationally 48 percent to 42 percent. The poll squares with some other recent national surveys in putting Obama out front beyond the margin of error, but the New York Times/CBS News poll and USA Today/Gallup poll had Obama’s lead in double-digits.

Public Policy Polling matched up the Democrats with McCain for the general election in the key state of Ohio and found Obama leading McCain 48 percent to 47 percent, within the survey’s 3 point margin of error, and McCain ahead of Clinton 51 percent to 47 percent. The poll was conducted Feb.21-24. The poll found a noticeable gender gap with a majority of women supporting Clinton or Obama, and a majority of men supporting McCain.

To check out other state-by-state match-ups, go here and here.

Two polls released today show Hillary Clinton still maintaining a lead in Ohio beyond the surveys' margins of error, but with Barack Obama slowly but surely cutting into it.

Clinton leads Obama 48 percent to 43 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Feb.25, but that's 3 points less than what Clinton led by last week. The margin of error is 3 percent. That's in line with polls Monday that also showed her lead eroding in Ohio.

The Rasmussen numbers suggest that Obama may have scored points by trying to hang the NAFTA trade agreement around Clinton's neck. Voters said by a 53 percent to 14 percent margin that they believed Obama opposed the treaty, but they are unsure of where Clinton stands. Only 16 percent of Democrats believe NAFTA, which was negotiated under President Bill Clinton, is good for the nation.

SurveyUSA put Clinton ahead of Obama 50 percent to 44 percent with a 3.6 percent margin of error in a poll conducted Feb.23-25. Two weeks ago, Clinton's SurveyUSA lead was 17 points. Clinton and Obama run fairly evenly among the 57 percent of the sample who are between ages 35 and 64, but Obama leads by 17 points among the one-fifth of the sample between 18 and 34, while Clinton has a 2-to-1 lead among the one-fifth about 65. Obama leads among males (42 percent of the sample) 55 percent to 39 percent, while Clinton leads among women voters (58 percent of the sample) by 58 percent to 36 percent.

The economy topped the list of voter concerns at 48 percent, and Clinton led Obama among this group 54 percent to 40 percent. Health care was cited by 20 percent of voters as the most important issue, and Clinton led Obama here 52 percent to 45 percent. Iraq was third at 12 percent, and these voters favored Obama 52 percent to 46 percent. No other issues came close.

Read the full USA Today/Gallup poll

The USA Today/Gallup poll says that 82 percent of Republicans and 70 percent of Democrats now believe that Barack Obama will be the Democratic Party nominee. The poll was conducted Feb.21-24 and has a 2 percent margin of error. When this question was asked in January, 41 percent said they thought Obama would win to Clinton's 36 percent. Obama is also perceived by both Democrats as having the best chance of beating the Republican candidate in November, while 66 percent of Republicans say McCain could beat Clinton, but only 18 percent think he'd win against Obama.

Polls in Texas continue to show a tight race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in a state where, earlier this month, she had been enjoying a double-digit lead. One new poll today had them exactly even, and the other with Obama ahead, but almost exactly by the margin of error.

The two are tied at 48 percent each in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Feb.23-24. The margin of error is 4.7 percent. Democrats listed the top issues in this order: economy and jobs (38 percent), Iraq (25 percent) and health Care (12 percent). Obama and Clinton ran relatively close together among voters who listed the economy and Iraq as top issues, but she far outpaced him among those who cared most about health care. We posted the other poll by SurveyUSA earlier which showed Obama ahead 49 percent to 45 percent with a 3.8 percent margin of error.

The latest entry into the Texas poll sweepstakes is SurveyUSA whose poll conducted Feb.23-25 shows Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton 49 percent to 45 percent, a gain of 4 points for him and a loss of 5 points for Clinton. SurveyUSA says Obama's margin is right at the edge of the 3.8 percent margin of error for the poll. This depiction of a close contest is pretty much in line with other Texas polls. That's a smaller margin than yesterday's double-digit leads for Obama reported by the New York Times/CBS News and USA Today/Gallup polls.

The New York Times/CBS poll released this evening said that Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton nationally among Democrats by 54 percent to 38 percent with a 5 point margin of error. That comes on the heels of a USA Today/Gallup poll showing Obama ahead by a similar 51 percent to 39 percent margin, with a 3 percent margin of error. The Times/CBS poll was conducted Feb.20-24, while the USA Today/Gallup survey was done Feb.21-24. (See an earlier post for an interesting twist on the differences between the USA Today/Gallup finding, and Gallup's own daily tracking poll).

Some headlines from the Times/CBS poll:

• Asked who had the best chance of beating John McCain in November, 59 percent said Obama and 28 percent said Clinton.
• Nearly two thirds of Democrats said they considered Obama to be the likely Democratic nominee.
• Obama has caught up to Clinton in support among women voters while building a large lead among men.
• Among all registered voters, Obama won a general electionm match-up against McCain 50 percent to 38 percent, while Clinton tied McCain at 46 percent each.

Polls in Texas and Ohio, which vote March 4, also contained troubling news for Clinton today. Check them out here.

Read the Associated Press/Ipsos poll

Barack Obama has a 46 percent to 43 percent lead, within a 4.6 percent margin of error, in an Associated Press national poll conducted Feb.22.24. Clinton had a 5 point lead in this poll earlier in February. And then there is the matter of the USA Today/Gallup poll which shows Obama with a big national lead over Clinton and the Gallup daily tracking poll ... which does not. But more about that in a minute.

Looking at key blocs of voters in the campaign, AP says its survey shows "how the bottom is falling out among some supporters of Clinton." Clinton and Obama had evenly divided white men voters and liberals in the last survey, but Obama now leads in those groups by 23 points and 17 points respectively.

On the Republican said, John McCain leads Mike Huckabee 53 percent to 27 percent and has large leads over Huckabee among loyal Republicans, conservatives and Southerners. He runs about even with Huckabee among evangelical Christian voters.

Meanwhile, a USA Today Gallup poll had Obama waaaay out in front of Clinton by 51 percent to 39 percent with a 3 point margin of error. The poll was conducted Feb.21-24. The odd twist is that Gallup's own daily tracking poll today, based on interviewing Feb.22-24, shows Obama narrowly ahead of Clinton 47 percent to 45 percent with a 3 point margin of error.

Frank Newport, editor of the Gallup poll, tried to explain the difference in a posting to the site. He said the daily tracking poll and USA Today/Gallup poll had "some differences in the methodology." But noting that the two polls were fairly consistent on the Republican race, he said, "I think the Democratic differences may well be another indicator of the conflicted nature of the Democratic race this year... there is a lot of volatility out there among Democrats."

Here's a Poll Tracker two-fer: CNN/Opinion Research says its latest Texas poll has Barack Obama in a virtual tie with Hillary Clinton, leading her 50 percent to 46 percent, but with a 3.5 percent margin of error. And USA Today/Gallup says its new general election match-up shows John McCain neck-and-neck with Obama at 48 percent to 47 percent, with a 3 point margin of error. However, Hillary Clinton would also be competitive with McCain. He leads her by 50 percent to 46 percent.

It should be noted that an Associated Press/Ipsos poll conducted Feb.22-24 showed noticeably different results than Gallup in the hypothetical national match-ups. Obama leads McCain 51 percent to 41 percent, and Clinton bests him too, 48 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is 3.1 percent.

The Texas numbers represent a 2 point gain for Obama and 4 point loss since CNN's poll last Monday. On the GOP side, McCain bests Mike Huckabee 56 percent to 31 percent. The poll was conducted Feb.22-24. There were some other polls on Texas (and Ohio) today that you can check out here.

CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said Clintons two-thirds majority about Hispanic voters is being offset in part by the fact that Obama is winning 8 out of 10 black votes plus a respectable share of Hispanic votes.

Both Republicans and Democrats agree that the economy is the most important campaign issue. But health care was number two for Democrats while the runner-up for Republicans was illegal immigration.

On the national poll, Gallup says that although the political landscape this year appears to strongly favor the Democrats, McCain is able to make a strong showing because of his ability to attract support beyond his own party. McCain attracts more support from Democrats than either Democrat gets among Republicans, and he is competitive with Obama among independents. Clinton lags McCain on that score. The poll was conducted Feb.21-24.

Two more pollsters have weighed in on Ohio since our report earlier today and while they all show Hillary Clinton's lead eroding to some extent, the latest, Public Policy Polling shows the race even tighter yet.

And she faces more trouble in Texas where an American Research Group poll survey said she led him by just one point, with a 4 point margin of error.

Clinton leads Obama in Public Policy's Ohio poll by 50 to 46 percent, exactly its 4 point margin of error. The survey was conducted Feb.23-24. Dean Debnam, head of the polling firm, described Clinton as being in "big trouble" and said the race in the state "is trending heavily towards Obama."

Two new polls are showing that Barack Obama appears to be closing the gap on Hillary Clinton in Ohio.

Her lead over Obama is now 47 percent to 39 percent with a 4.3 percent margin of error, according to the "Ohio Poll" conducted by the University of Cincinnati's Institute for Policy Research. The poll was conducted Feb.21-24. The Ohio Poll says three issues dominate the campaign among Democratic voters: the economy and jobs (41 percent), health care/health insurance (25 percent) and Iraq (16 percent).

On the Republican side, McCain leads Mike Huckabee 55 percent to 20 percent. Republicans rank the top issues in the campaign this way: the economy and jobs (30%), homeland security and national defense (16%), the war in Iraq (9%), health care and health insurance (8%), abortion (7%) and taxes (6%).

In the Quinnipiac University poll, , Clinton is leading Obama 51 percent to 40 percent with a 3.6 percent margin of error. The poll was conducted Feb.18-23. That compares to the 55 to 34 percent lead she enjoyed in a Feb. 14 survey.

Read the full USA Todya/Gallup poll

Most voters believe that John McCain and Barack Obama are most likely to unite the country if elected, while Hillary Clinton or Mike Huckabee would divide it. Of the four, Clinton is viewed as most divisive. In Feb. 8-10 USA Tody/Gallup poll, 66 percent of voters said Obama "would do more to unite than country" than divide it, followed by McCain at 59 percent. Fifty-seven percent said Clinton would do more to divide it, and 47 percent said the same of Huckabee. The margin of error is 5 percent.

Breaking the numbers down by parties, 79 percent of Democrats call Obama a uniter compared to 65 percent for Clinton while 67 percent of Independents say the same of Obama, but only 35 percent of them say that of Clinton. Republicans split evenly - 48 percent to percent - on the question, while a minority 41 percent of Democrats describe McCain as someone who would unite the country. A whopping 85 percent of Republicans say Clinton would do more to divide.

Little change today in Gallup's daily tracking poll. For the second straight survey, this one combining results from Feb.20 and Feb.22-23, results for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are within the 3 point margin of error, with Obama at 47 percent and Clinton at 46 percent. John McCain retains his better than 3-to-1 lead over Mike Huckabee at 65 percent to 20 percent. Which brings to mind the headline of a story in today's Chicago Tribune which, referring to Huckabee's appearance on the "Weekend Update" segment of Saturday Night Live, read: "Live, From New York ... And Going Nowhere."

One reason to follow the polls looking at general election match-ups state-by-state is to measure the results against Barack Obama’s claim that he can reshape the political map by turning out hordes of new voters, capturing the lion’s share of independents, and even bite off some Republican votes. There’s a good piece in today’s Washington Post on Obama’s red state prospects. See also a piece in the Austin American-Statesman about Obama attracting some disenchanted Republicans.

Poll Tracker reported Friday on eight state polls conducted by SurveyUSA where Hillary Clinton had statistically significant leads over John McCain in five, Obama in four while McCain led both Democrats convincingly in two. So, add to that list Rasmussen Reports polls today in Wisconsin and New Mexico which show McCain and Obama essentially tied in both places, and Clinton losing in both.

The latest Gallup daily tracking poll, which has been fluctuating between statistically even results for Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama or statistically modest leads for Obama today shows them again in a virtual tie. The survey, based on interviewing conducted Feb.19-20 and Feb.22 has Obama at 47 percent and Clinton at 45 percent with a 3 percent margin of error.

On the Republican side, John McCain's lead over Mike Huckabee has grown to 63 percent to 20 percent. This period includes interviewing that followed the Feb. 21 New York Times report about his relationship with a lobbyist.

Much of the attention to the factor of religion and moral values in politics has been paid to the Republican side of the campaign. But Gallup came up with some polling on the Democrats and found that Hillary Clinton has a big edge over Barack Obama among voters who describe themselves as highly religious. A Feb.15-20 survey found that 57 percent of white, non-Hispanic regular church-goers support Clinton compared to 29 percent for Obama. Gallup said there was less of a relationship between candidate choice and religion among black Democratic viewers who "are both highly religious and highly likely to support Obama."

Sunday's Washington Post has a package of articles in its Outlook section under the heading of "How Would Jesus Vote?" You can link to them here:

• It's Not Your Father's Religious Right
• I Voted For Obama, Will I Go Straight To ...
• I'm An Evangelical And A Liberal ... Really
• Hispanic Evangelicals Flagging Faith In The GOP

Read the full Gallup analysis

Fifty percent of Americans believe economic pressures have become so bad that they will not be able to maintain their standard of living, according to Gallup. That's a higher number than those who felt that way during the 1991-92 recession.

Reporting results from a Jan.30-Feb.2 survey, Gallup said that 86 percent of Americans say they have already been very or somewhat affected by the squeeze of higher gasoline and home-heating costs. About three-quarters of those interviewed said the same about food prices and healthcare costs.

SurveyUSA today released hypothetical general election match-ups for eight states. The only states where John McCain runs strongly against both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in this grouping are Oregon and Alabama. Clinton has leads over McCain that are beyond the margin of error in five of the eight states while Obama has statistically signficant leads in four. All these surveys were conducted Feb.15-17.

Read the Rasmussen Reports polls for Texas and Ohio

Hillary Clinton has a 47 percent to 44 percent within-the-margin-of-error lead over Barack Obama in Texas, and is ahead of him in Ohio by 48 percent to 40 percent, with a 3 point margin of error. The Texas margin of error is 4 points. Both surveys were conducted Feb. 20.

Rasmussen had Clinton ahead of Obama in Texas and Ohio by a double-digit margin a week ago. Today’s findings are similar to those yesterday reported by the Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Clinton leads Obama by 10 points among women in Texas. As in other states, she leads among white and Hispanic voters but trails Obama among black voters.

In Ohio, Clinton enjoys a 20 point lead among women, but she now trails Obama by 10 among men after leading in that group a week ago. Half of the Ohio voters said the economy was the top issue with Iraq coming in at 18 percent.

Read the full Pew Hispanic Center analysis

The Pew Hispanic Center has analyzed exit polls for 15 states that have voted so far and came up with list of toplines about the Hispanic vote in this year's campaign. The report noted what we already know -- that so far, Hispanics have shown a marked preference for Hilly Clinton over Barack Obama, but the key phrase there is "so far," given that polls have been showing inroads Obama has been making into key blocs of Clinton support. The question is: will Hispanics be next?

A Washington Post-ABC News poll, conducted Feb.16-20 and released yesterday, said Hispanics are key to Clinton's chances in the March 4 Texas primary. The poll said Clinton led Obama in this group 59 to 36 percent, about the same as the average of all exit polls in other states, but that her chances depended on how heavy the actual turnout would be.

Read the full Gallup poll

More Americans are likely to identify themselves as Democrats than at any time since 2000, according to a Gallup poll conducted Feb.11-14. In the survey 40 percent identified themselves as Democrats, 26 percent as Republicans and 34 percent with neither. Most of the "neithers" considered themselves independents. Gallup said the only time this 14 point gap was higher for the Democrats was in 1998, immediately after the Republican-controlled House impeached former President Clinton. The margin then was 41 percent to 20 percent. For the record, Gallup says the Republican high points - when they were at 39 percent -- occurred in May 1991, right after the Persian Gulf War; Dec. 2003, conducted at the time of the capture of Saddam Hussein; and, Sept. 2004, after the Republican presidential convention.

Read the full Washington Post-ABC News story

Serving up more bad news for Hillary Clinton, a Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted Feb.16-20 shows Clinton in a statistical tie with Barack Obama at 48 percent to 47 percent, and leading him in Ohio 50 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error in both states is 4 percent.

The new poll squares with other polls that have bubbled up over the last week, in which the Texas race has been narrowing to a dead heat, while Clinton's once-big advantage in Ohio has dwindled. At the same time, Clinton and Obama are in the same close horse race in national polls released today.

The poll says that the economy and health care vie for the top spot among voter concerns, while health care is the clear cut issue in Texas where, according to a Wall Street Journal column, 25 percent of the people are uninsured, the highest of any state.

Read the KXAN-TV (Austin) poll story

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are running neck-and-neck in Texas, according to a poll conducted Feb.17-19. The margin of error is 4 percent. Clinton has 46 percent to Obama's 45 percent, with 9 percent undecided. On the Republican side, John McCain easily outdistances Mike Huckabee, 52 percent to 30 percent with home state Rep. Ron Paul at 9 percent. As many other state and national polls are indicating, the economy has shot to the top of the list for voters of both parties, in this case replacing Iraq. This is at least the third poll this week to show the Texas contest as a toss-up on the Democratic side.

Three national polls – Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, the Gallup daily tracking poll, and Diageo/Hotline – show Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in a tie.

The Fox poll, conducted Feb.19-20, has Clinton and Obama at 44 percent each, 8 percent “don’t know,” within a 5 point margin of error. Gallup has Clinton leading Obama 45 percent to 44 percent with a 3 point margin of error. Diageo/Hotline, conducted Feb.14-17, shows Clinton leading Obama 45 percent to 43 percent, well within the 5.1 percent margin of error.

Gallup has bounced up and down over its last nine daily tracking reports, with Clinton and Obama roughly tied early last week, followed by several days of Obama opening up leads of 5 to 7 points, then another virtual tie on Tuesday, and another 5 point Obama lead yesterday that apparently has collapsed again. It will be interesting if any of the pollsters can determine whether a factor in this is the combined attacks by Clinton and John McCain’s on Obama’s experience.

The tie at 44 percent reported by Fox today contrasts to Clinton’s 47 percent to 37 percent lead in its Jan.30-31 poll. Asked if Clinton should pick Obama as her running mate if she wins the nomination, 63 percent of Democrats answered “yes,” but when the question was asked the other way around – should Obama pick Clinton – a lesser 54 percent approved of the idea. Forty-seven percent of Democrats say Obama was most likely to bring about real change to 37 percent for Clinton.

On the Republican side, McCain leads Huckabee 51 percent to 34 percent in the Fox poll, with a 6 point margin of error, but by a much larger 62 percent to 22 percent in the Gallup survey, with a 3 point margin of error. The Diageo/Hotline poll found McCain ahead of Huckabee by 53 percent to 25 percent. All the polls were conducted before the New York Times ran its story last night exploring McCain’s relationship with a female lobbyist in 2000.

About half of Republicans surveyed by Fox said McCain’s positions on the issues were “about right,” while a third said they were not conservative enough. About half also said Huckabee’s positions were about right, but only 13 percent said he was not conservative enough. Fifty-one percent of Republicans said that if McCain wins he should pick Huckabee as his running mate, and 37 percent said he shouldn’t.

See the Full Franklin & Marshall College poll

Hillary Clinton is leading Barack Obama in Pennsylvania 44 percent to 32 percent, but as in Texas and Ohio, this represents a drop in more substantial margins she enjoyed earlier, according to this Feb. 13-18 survey.. In January, the F & M poll, conducted for several Pennsylvania newspapers and television stations, had Clinton leading by 20 points. With the primary still a month away, 20 percent of those surveyed said they didn’t yet know who they would vote for, and 37 percent of those who did choose between the two said they were still thinking about it.

In general election match-ups, McCain and Clinton run head-to-head at 46 percent each, and McCain leads Obama 44 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error for the poll is 3.9 percent.

SurveyUSA says a general election match-up between Clinton and John McCain in her home state of New York shows her leading 52 percent to 41 percent with a 4.4 percent margin of error. The poll was conducted Feb.15-17. On the issues, Clinton bests McCain on the economy, the environment, health care, Iraq and education, while McCain leads her among voters concerned about terrorism, Social Security and immigration. Obama performs similarly against McCain across these issues although one difference is that Obama bests him by a wide margin on Social Security.

But the real note of interest in the match-ups is that Obama would run stronger than Clinton in her own state, besting McCain 57 percent to 36 percent.

Other SurveyUSA state match-ups:

• Wisconsin: McCain leads Clinton 49 percent ot 42 percent, Obama leads McCain 52 percent to 42 percent. Margin of error is 4.3 percent.
• Iowa: McCain leads Clinton 52 percent to 41 percent, Obama leads McCain 51 percent to 41 percent. Margin of error is 4.2 percent.
• Virginia: McCain leads Clinton 48 percent to 45 percent, Obama leads McCain 51 percent to 45 percent. Margin of error is 4.2 percent.

With the economy looming as the major issue on voters minds now, it is interesting to note that in these four states, Clinton and Obama do better with voters on the economy than McCain in New York and Virginia, but less so or not at all in Iowa and Wisconsin.

Two national polls are out today with the same leader on the Democratic side – Barack Obama – but significantly different takes on what the size of his lead is. Rasmussen Reports has polls out on hypothetical general election match-ups in the key states of Ohio and Michigan.

The Gallup daily tracking poll has Barack Obama back to a 5 point lead over Hillary Clinton, following yesterday’s survey which had him ahead only 46 percent to 45 percent with a 3 point margin of error. Prior to that, Obama’s lead had been in the 5 to 7 point range in the previous three surveys. This poll was conducted Feb.17-19, before the results of Wisconsin were known. Not much change on the Republican side where John McCain still holds a big lead over Mike Huckabee.

Obama built a big 52 percent to 38 percent lead over Clinton in a Reuters/Zogby poll conducted Feb.13-16, before Obama scored yet another primary victory with his win in Wisconsin. Other polls have been showing that Obama is making inroads into key voting blocs that had been strong for Clinton, and in this poll, John Zogby notes in particular that Obama is now leading Clinton among the 50-to-64 baby boomers by 57 percent to 29 percent. He is also now tied with Clinton among women voters at 44 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent.

Among Republicans, John McCain leads Mike Huckabee by a comfortable 47 percent to 32 percent but among the 17 percent of the Republican sample that consider themselves “very conservative,” Huckabee leads McCain 51 percent to 29 percent.

In the poll’s general election match-ups, Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 40 percent while McCain bests Clinton 50 percent to 38 percent. The margin of error is 3 percent.

A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Feb.17 has McCain in a statistical tie with Obama, leading him 42 percent to 41 percent with a 4.5 percent margin of error. McCain leads Clinton 46 percent to 43 percent. For Michigan, Rasmussen says Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 39 percent, and that a Clinton-McCain race right now is a tie at 44 percent. Same margin of error and polling date as Ohio.

Read the full NAES Election Survey

The National Annenberg Election Survey, conducted from Jan.14-Feb.5, focused on how aware voters were, at this point in the campaign, of the candidates and their positions. Kathleen Hall Jamieson, director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center, said the point of the survey was to find out how much the public knew about distinctions among the candidates amid all “the talk about the horse race and campaign tactics.” She noted that the public has become more aware of these distinctions on the issues as the campaign has gone on, but the figures indicate there is still “a way to go.”

The number of Americans who disapprove of President Bush's performance on seven major issues has grown, according to a Feb.11-14 Gallup poll. The poll says that overall, 65 percent of Americans disapprove of the President's performance compared to 31 percent who approve. His approval ratings have consistently been below 40 percent since Sept. 2006.

Bush did not score a majority approval rating on any of these issues: terrorism, foreign affairs, Iraq, the economy, energy policy, healthcare policy or immigration. His best rating -47 percent approval - came on the issue of terrorism. His lowest marks were for handling of immigration. The biggest drop in approval was on his handling of the economy, falling from 41 percent last year to 27 percent in this most recent survey.

Gallup added in a separate analysis that its Feb.11-14 survey found that the economy had surpassed the war in Iraq as the Number One issue for voters for the first time since March 2004.

These findings are echoed by an American Research Group poll conducted Feb.16-19 that put the disapproval rating of Bush at 77 percent. The economy is again a big driver of this result with 78 percent of those surveyed (registered voters) say the economy is getting worse and 47 percent believe it is already in recession. Bush naturally does better among Republicans with a 45 percent approval rating, but even here, 50 percent disapprove of his performance.

For background stories on the economy, visit the CQ Politics Issue page. Also James Surowiecki has a good piece in the New Yorker on economic stimulus strategies.

As if to confirm a national Gallup poll from earlier today, exit polls in the Wisconsin primary show that Barack Obama is making significant inroads into groups of voters that had been the core of Hillary Clinton's support. Clinton had enjoyed double-digit leads among women in polls earlier in the campaign, but Tuesday night in Wisconsin, they were running about even, according to the Associated Press. Clinton also lost ground among less-educated and lower income voters, ABC News said.

Obama bested Clinton among white voters and, as Gallup said in its analysis, he not only held his big edge among young voters, but cut into Clinton's support among voters up to the age of 45. Obama won 64 percent of voters who described themselves as independents.

Looking ahead to states like Ohio, the Wall Street Journal had a piece Tuesday about the importance of working-class white men voters,

The AP also reported that the Democratic race was creating more interest than the all-but-decided Republican contest. Exit poll results showed that Wisconsin's independents - free to vote in either primary - were opting for the Democratic contest by more than 2-to-1.

The New York Times report on the exit polls said Wisconsin voters were most concerned about the economy. About 60 percent of Republicans and 90 percent of Democrats described the economy in negative terms.

Read the full U.S. Military Index article in Foreign Policy

Here’s a very different kind of poll from what we usually report: a survey of 3,437 retired and active military officers, holding ranks of major or lieutenant commander and above, on the state of the U.S. military. The “nonscientific” survey was conducted online Dec. 7, 2007 to Jan. 15, 2008 by Foreign Policy magazine and the Center for a New American Security, which describes itself as an independent and nonpartisan research institution.

The topline was that these officers “see a force stretched dangerously thin and a country ill-prepared for the next fight.”

Some bullet points:

• Sixty percent of the officers said the U.S. military was weaker today than it was five years ago, and more than half of those cited the demands of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as the reason. Nearly 90 percent believed that the Iraq war had “stretched the U.S. military dangerously thin.”
• Asked whether it was reasonable or unreasonable to expect that the U.S. could successfully wage another war at this time if it became necessary, 80 percent answered that it was unreasonable. The officers were also asked to rate, on a scale of 1 to 10, how prepared the U.S. was to fight a major combat operation involving Iran, Syria, North Korea or the Taiwan Straits, and the readiness score for all four averaged 4.8 out of 10.
• The officers were conflicted on the question of torture. Fifty-three percent agreed with the statement “torture is never acceptable” while 44 percent disagreed. On whether waterboarding constituted torture, 46 percent said yes, and 43 percent said no.
• The officers gave very low marks to the decisions on levels of troop staffing at the start of the war and the order to disband the Iraqi military.

Read the full Gallup poll

The economy is nearly always at the top of the list that voters have called the campaign's most important issue, and a new Gallup poll suggests one reason why. In a survey conducted Feb.11-14, Gallup found that the percentage of Americans saying this was a "bad time" to find a job shot up from 60 percent in January to 71 percent. This is the highest level of pessimism recorded by Gallup since 2003. Nearly one in four Americans say they are worried that they or their spouse will lose a job in the next 12 months.

Gallup's daily consumer confidence tracking poll, conducted Feb.16-18, adds that Americans' confidence in the economy remains low. Only 24 percent of those surveyed rated the economy as excellent or good.

A SurveyUSA poll conducted Feb.17-18 shows Hillary Clinton ahead of Barack Obama in one of her "firewall" states by 52 percent to 43 percent, with a 3.7 percent margin of error. While comparing the results of different pollsters to each other can be risky business, this outcome compares with two polls conducted last week that had Clinton ahead with healthy double-digit margins. Clinton already has received some unsettling news from recent polls in Texas that showed her lead there eroding.

While a Gallup analysis of its previous polls earlier today found momentum swinging toward Barack Obama, its daily tracking poll shows Hillary Clinton rebounding among Democrats, pulling within one point of Obama. Obama leads 46 percent to 45 percent in a poll conducted Feb.16-18, with a 3 point margin of error. In three previous tracking polls, Obama led Clinton by margins ranging from 5 to 7 points. Gallup says “there has been fluidity in the nightly tracking numbers over the past several days as Democrats nationally process the intense, often heated, nature of the campaign.” The Republican race is pretty much the same as before, with John McCain leading Mike Huckabee by 54 percent to 26 percent.

Rasmussen Reports has Obama leading Clinton nationally among Democrats by 46 percent to 42 percent and McCain ahead of Huckabee 54 percent to 28 percent. The margin of error is 4 percent.

In a general election match-up, Obama leads McCain 46 percent to 43 percent, while McCain leads Clinton 47 percent to 43 percent, again with a 4 point margin of error.

SurveyUSA has a new Texas poll showing Hillary Clinton with a slim 50 percent to 45 percent lead over Barack Obama. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. That roughly squares with yesterday’s CNN/Opinion Research poll showing the race to be a dead-heat. However, SurveyUSA, estimating that Hispanics make up 32 percent of the primary vote, says Clinton’s lead could be larger if there is a big Hispanic turnout. It will be interesting to see how Clinton’s Hispanic support in Texas stands up, given today’s Gallup poll that says, nationally, Obama is making inroads into that vote.

And on a totally unrelated note … Rasmussen Reports has a poll out on the Minnesota Senate race and, to paraphrase one of his stock lines from Saturday Night Live, Democratic hopeful Al Franken might well ask: “What does it mean for me, Al Franken?” According to Rasmussen, it means Franken is showing up somewhat better than its previous poll in a hypothetical match-up against Republican incumbent Norm Coleman. Franken, who would still have to beat lawyer Mike Ciresi for the party’s nomination, leads Coleman 49 percent to 46 percent Coleman runs 47 percent to 45 percent against Ciresi. Both results are well within the Feb.16 poll’s 4.5 percent margin of error.

Read the full Gallup Poll analysis

Gallup says the momentum in the Democratic presidential contest "has clearly swung toward Barack Obama" and that one of the key indicators is that he has started to gain among voting blocs that had been the source of Hillary Clintons strength. Gallup bases this on comparisons of polling it did during two periods: Feb.5-9 and Feb.13-17. In that time, the race has gone from Clinton leading by an average of 49 percent to 42 percent, to Obama now ahead 49 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is 2 percent.

While in general Obama still has a strong lead among younger voters and Clinton retains her edge with older voters, he has started to make inroads among middle-aged Democrats. Just as the overall lead in the race has changed hands, Obama now bests Clinton in the 35-to-54 age group by 51 percent to 42 percent in the Feb.13-17 polling compared to Clinton's 49 percent to 42 percent lead in the previous comparison period.

Clinton also appears to have lost her advantage among Hispanic voters, at least on a national level. During Feb.5-9, she had led Obama 63 percent to 32 percent, but in the latest polling period, Obama now leads her 50 percent to 46 percent. What remains to be seen is if this change is also occuring in Texas where Clinton is counting on the Hispanic vote to help her win that state's primary on March 4.

The same is the case among women voters as well. Clinton had a 53 percent to 38 percent edge among women earlier; now that margin has eroded to a statistically insignificant 46 percent to 45 percent.

Most of the polls now seem to be falling in line in reporting that Barack Obama is leading Hillary Clinton in Wisconsin. An American Research Group poll conducted Feb.17-18 now shows Obama leading Clinton 52 percent to 42 percent with 5 percent undecided and a 4 point margin of error. ARG's Feb.15-16 poll had Clinton ahead 49 percent to 43 percent. The new result squares with other polls today. Men comprise 46 percent of the likely Democratic voters and Obama leads among them 59 percent to 37 percent. White voters make up 88 percent of the sample and Obama leads there 49 percent to 45 percent, exactly the poll's margin of error.

On the Republican side, this survey shows John McCain regaining some of his footing. In the Feb.15-16 survey, McCain led Mike Huckabee by only 46 percent to 42 percent, but the new poll has him ahead 51 percent to 43 percent - still a decent showing by Huckabee, reminiscent of his challenge to McCain in Virginia where a lot of Republicans listed family and moral values as an important issue, as several polls have shown to be the case in Wisconsin.

Read the CNN/Opinion Research poll

(And check out our earlier posting on hypothetical general election match-ups in Florida, Minnesota and Wisconsin. There’s a surprise in the Florida poll).

Last week, we reported on conflicting polls about whether Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton was ahead in Texas, but CNN’s new poll, conducted Feb.15-17, has some worrisome news for Clinton if she is counting on the state as a firewall after a string of primary losses. Clinton leads Obama by 50 percent to 48 percent, well within the 4.5 percent margin of error. CNN polling director Keating Holland says one reason the race is so close is that “Likely Democratic primary voters would be equally happy if either candidate won the nomination, and they don't see a lot of difference between them on several top issues.” He adds that roughly 25 percent of voters said they might change their minds before the March 4 vote.

Today’s Washington Post has a long piece exploring the deep ties both Clintons have in Texas.

On the Republican side, John McCain leads Mike Huckabee 55 percent to 32 percent with 11 percent for home state Rep. Ron Paul. In Houston today, former President George H.W. Bush endorsed McCain.

Equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans agreed that the economy was the most important issue in the campaign but they differed on which ones ranked highest after that. The Democrats said health care, Iraq and terrorism, while Republican voters singled out illegal immigration, Iraq and terrorism and health care in that order. On the issue of Iraq, the Austin Herald-Statesman did a piece on voters in Killeen, Texas, home of Fort Hood, saying that Iraq has not turned out to be a clear cut issue in terms of supporting any of the candidates.

Rasmussen Reports has two general election match-up polls today, for Florida and Minnesota. SurveyUSA had one for Wisconsin, which has its primary Tuesday.

In Florida, a survey conducted Feb.16 shows John McCain beating either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. McCain bests Clinton 49 percent to 43 percent, but he puts away Obama by 53 percent to 37 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Most of the state match-up polls we've seen show tight races between Clinton and McCain, but Obama usually out ahead of McCain by at least a small margin. Rasmussen says "the poll contains hints that suggest the controversy over Florida’s convention delegates may be hurting Obama." The Democratic Party stripped Florida of its convention seats for moving up its primary to January.

In Minnesota, things fall more into line with other state polls. McCain leads Clinton 47 percent to 42 percent, but Obama beats him 53 percent to 38 percent, also with a 4.5 percent margin of error. The poll was conducted Feb.16.

SurveyUSA's look-ahead to November in Wisconsin says McCain would beat Clinton 49 percent to 42 percent, with 9 percent undecided and a 4.3 percent margin of error. Obama would beat McCain 52 percent to 52 percent with 6 percent undecided and the same margin of error. The poll was conducted Feb.15-17. SurveyUSA notes that a Democratic defeat here would be the first since 1984 when Ronald Reagan beat Walter Mondale.

See our earlier post on a poll showing Obama ahead in tomorrow's primary and Huckabee gaining some ground on McCain.

Read the full Public Policy Polling survey

(We also have Gallup's national daily tracking poll for you, at the bottom of this post, but not much new there.).

A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Feb.16-17 shows Barack Obama opening a big lead of Hillary Clinton, 53 percent to 40 percent, a 2 point gain since its last survey. The margin of error is 3.4 percent. That’s a sharply different result than the American Research Group poll we reported yesterday, which said Clinton was leading Obama 49 percent to 43 percent with a 4 point margin of error. And it’s a bigger lead than Friday’s WISC-TV poll (a Madison, Wis. Station) that had Obama’s lead at a more modest 47 percent to 42 percent with a 4 point margin of error.

Perhaps one difference is that PPP said the poll reflected its belief that a large turnout, especially among young and black voters, as has occurred in the other Democratic primaries, was an important factor in its calculation. The poll said that in a “standard turnout” scenario, Obama’s lead would be just 47 percent to 44 percent, within the margin of error.

This poll is more in synch with ARG’s survey on the Republican side where it shows John McCain still ahead of Mike Huckabee, but losing ground. McCain’s previous lead of 53 percent to 32 percent, has dropped to 50 percent to 39 percent, with a 3.8 percent margin of error. The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel has a piece today, headlined “Refusing To Cry ‘Uncle,’ Huckabee Out-Campaigns His Rival.”

Among Democrats, the economy and Iraq are about tied as the top issue, at 35 percent and 34 percent respectively. Republicans also chose the economy as the top issue at 29 percent, but in contrast to Democrats, the second-place issue was moral and family values at 25 percent, which accounts in part for Huckabee’s appeal. Huckabee leads McCain 70 percent to 18 percent among those voters, although McCain has a lead of similar margin over Huckabee when it comes to the third-ranked issue, Iraq (22 percent).

Obama has an across-the-board lead over Clinton on all issues. He bests Clinton 50 percent to 43 percent among white voters and 76 percent to 21 percent among black voters. (White voters were 84 percent of the Democratic sample and black voters were 12 percent). Women, who made up 50 percent of the sample, favored Obama 50 percent to 43 percent. (See the piece in the Green Bay Press-Gazette, “Democrats Courting State’s Female Voters.”

Gallup's daily tracking poll conducted Feb.15-17, has Obama with a 49 percent to 42 percent lead over Clinton, 2 points higher than yesterday. McCain continues to hold a big lead over Huckabee, 54 percent to 26 percent. the margin of error is 3 percent.

Read the full Gallup story

If this campaign has seen Republicans vying to claim the mantle of Ronald Reagan, and Barack Obama revelling in the support of the Kennedys, there's some good reason for it.

In Gallup's President's Day offering, it says a Feb.11-14 survey found that John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan are the former presidents that voters as a whole would like to bring back to re-occupy the White House. JFK and Reagan were each chosen by about a quarter of those surveyed. Bill Clinton and Abraham Lincoln rank next, followed closely by Franklin Delano Roosevelt. No other President tops 5 percent.

Beyond Reagan and Kennedy, none of the other modern day Presidents get much notice from Republicans. Reagan is the clear favorite with 51 percent. Democrats are more mixed in their responses, with Kennedy first at 34 percent, Clinton at 24 percent and Roosevelt at 12 percent.

Independents choose Reagan at 21 percent, Kennedy at 19 percent and then Abraham Lincoln, Clinton and Roosevelt.

Unsurprisingly, the results are strongly influenced by who was President in a particular generation. Baby Boomers (50-to 64) favor Kennedy; Generation X (30-to-49) tilt to Reagan, younger adults (18-to-49 taken as a whole), are the most likely to choose Clinton and seniors more than anyone else name Roosevelt.

American Research Group says its polling on Feb.15-16 shows Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama by 49 percent to 43 percent, although Obama has gained 3 points since ARG's Feb.6-7 survey. Seven percent are undecided and the margin of error is 4 percent. Obama leads among men by 48 percent to 42 percent, and black voters by 85 percent to 9 percent. Clinton leads among white voters 52 percent to 40 percent, among women 55 percent to 39 percent, and among Hispanic voters, 50 percent to 44 percent. ARG's Dick Bennett says white voters represent 89 percent of the Democratic sample, black voters represent 7 percent and Hispanic voters represent 4 percent.

On the GOP side, ARG says McCain leads Huckabee 46 percent to 42 percent, a difference that is the same as the margin of error. In its Feb.6-7 poll, when Mitt Romney was still in the race, McCain had 59 percent to Romney's 29 percent, and Huckabee had only 4 percent - less than Ron Paul. So, Huckabee appears to profited most from Romney's withdrawal and he has also made inroads among voters who describe themselves as Independents.

For comparison, WISC-TV in Madison put out a poll conducted Feb.13-14 showing Obama with a 47 percent to 42 percent lead, and McCain further ahead of Huckabee at 48 percent to 32 percent.

To add some flesh-and-blood of the campaign to these polling numbers, check out these reports today by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel about the contest over who is most "electable" and the Green Bay Press Gazette about Huckabee's courtship of Wisconsin's right.

Barack Obama remains ahead in Gallup's daily tracking poll, 48 percent to 43 percent, still beyond the 3 point margin of error, but with the lead slightly reduced from the 49 percent to 42 percent he enjoyed a day earlier. The poll was conducted Feb.14-16. The race on the Republican side is pretty much where it was -- John McCain leading Mike Huckabee 53 percent to 29 percent.

Rasmussen Reports today has hypothetical general election match-ups for Pennsylvania and Oregon that generally mirror outcomes of several national polls. The state polls indicate the races would be competitive but that Barack Obama runs a little better than Hillary Clinton against John McCain. The polls were taken Feb.14 in Pennsylvania and Feb.13 in Oregon, and both have margins of error of 4.5 percent.

• Pennsylvania: Obama leads McCain by 49 percent to 39 percent, while Clinton trails McCain by 44 percent to 42 percent which, statistically, is a tie. In January, McCain had led Clinton by 6 points and Obama by 8 points.
• Oregon: Obama also leads McCain here, by 49 percent to 40 percent and, again, McCain leads Clinton 45 percent to 42 percent. Rasmussen adds the historical note that Oregon has gone for the Democrats in five consecutive Presidential elections but “even during that stretch, no Democrat has earned more than 52% support in the state.”

Read the full Gallup report

Gallup's Feb.13-15 survey puts Barack Obama ahead of Hillary Clinton by 49 percent to 42 percent, giving him his first statistically significant lead, given the poll's 3 percent margin of error. Seven percent expressed no opinion. Gallup says sentiment has been shifting towards Obama for several days. Last week, Obama and Clinton were generally within two points of the other each day.

On the Republican side, John McCain leads Mike Huckabee 54 percent to 28 percent with Ron Paul at 5 percent. McCain's support has been slightly above 50 percent for a little more than a week now, following Mitt Romney's exit from the race.

Read the full Zogby/Lear poll

We don’t often go in for old polls, but couldn’t resist this one when reminded by the special Election 2008 website set up by the University of Southern California to showcase its political experts. They reprised a piece about a poll done last year by the Zogby/Lear Center Survey On Politics And Entertainment on how the TV tastes of Americans match up with their politics.

Some highlights when it comes to Red, Blue and Purple tastes:

Red (37 percent of the sample)

• They think a lot of TV programming is in bad taste.
• They do, however, like Fox and Fox News whose programming draws three times as many conservative viewers as liberals.
• They like sports, especially football and auto racing and they go to sporting events more than they go to movies.

Blue (39 percent of the sample)

• They like lots of different kinds of entertainment even if it doesn’t reflect their personal tastes.
• High on their viewing lists are 60 Minutes, HBO, PBS, The Daily Show and Comedy Central.
• They go to the movies more than conservatives.
• They play video games more than conservatives.

Purple (24 percent of the sample)

• They are big consumers of all the TV networks and like police shows, game shows and reality programming.
• One in four Purple women watches Desperate Housewives each week.
• They prefer rock music.
• They don’t have much of a taste for politically-themed movies or books.

A USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Feb.8-10 finds that 51 percent of likely voters this fall would choose a Democrat for the House to 41 percent for the Republicans. The margin of error is 4 percent. That's a six point swing in the Democrats' favor since November, and the highest margin they've enjoyed since October, 2006 when the gap was 23 points.

A poll by Research 2000 for WISC-TV in Madison says Barack Obama is leading Hillary Clinton 47 percent to 42 percent with 11 percent undecided. The survey was conducted Feb.13-14 and has a 4 percent margin of error. Obama and Clinton are virtually tied among white voters. He leads 84 percent to 5 percent among black voters, while Clinton leads 54 percent to 34 percent among Hispanics. The poll does not specify how much of the sample each of these groups represented.

On the GOP side, John McCain leads Mike Huckabee 48 percent to 32 percent, with 7 percent for Ron Paul and 13 percent undecided.

The findings of this poll were similar to that of a Rasmussen Reports poll this week.

Hillary Clinton got good news on some fronts this week. On the heels of polls by Rasmussen Reports and Quinnipiac University showing her with double-digit leads over Barack Obama in Ohio, Rasmussen today says she leads Obama 54 percent to 38 percent in Texas, the other big March 4 primary state. However, an American Research Group poll shows a different result, but we'll get to that. Rasmussen cautions that only 68 percent of likely Democratic voters say they have made up their minds for sure. As in many other states, Clinton leads among white and Hispanic voters while Obama leads among black voters. Also following trends elsewhere, 38 percent put the economy as the number one issue while 19 percent cited Iraq.

In the Republican race, John McCain holds a 45 percent to 37 percent lead over Mike Huckabee, much less than his national leads. Texas’ Ron Paul has 7 percent, following in the dust of “not sure” at 11 percent. (Thirty-six percent of Texas Republicans have a favorable view of Paul while 52 percent do not). Immigration is a top issue for 26 percent of Republicans, and Huckabee leads 45 percent to 38 percent in that group. The economy is listed as top issue by 25 percent.

The poll was taken Feb. 14 and has a margin of error of 4 percent.

The American Research Group poll taken Feb.13-14 has an entirely different result for the Democrats. It has Obama leading Clinton 48 percent to 42 percent among likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of 4 percent. ARG is more in agreement with Rasmussen on the Republican side, McCain leads Huckabee 42 percent to 36 percent, with the same margin of error. Pollster Dick Bennett says, "This race looks more like Virginia than Maryland."

One potentially troublesome item for Clinton, if this poll is borne out, is that her lead among Hispanic voters is only 44 percent to 42 percent, while Obama maintains his big edge among black voters. (See a Houston Chronicle piece on her quest for Hispanic voters). ARG also polled self-described Independents who can "affiliate" with either party and vote in that party's primary.While Clinton led Obama 47 percent to 42 percent among the 78 percent of Democrats polled, Obama led 71 percent to 24 percent among the 22 percent who described themselves as Independents.

We asked Bennett about the difference between the Rasmussen poll and his, and he said, that in part, "our interviewers report that it is early in this race as attention levels are fairly low." Bennett also took note of the fact that 30 percent of men said they would never vote for Clinton and "that McCain is being hurt by independent men voting in the Democratic primary against Clinton."

Pollster.com has an analysis of the differences in the Texas polls.

Gallup’s Frank Newport has a video up analyzing McCain’s problems within his own party.

The Wall Street Journal has a great blog written by Carl Bialik who is “The Numbers Guy.” Bialik takes on a whole range of ways statistics and numbers are used – misused – and this week, he takes a look at polling numbers. In this posting, Bialik looks at web sites, many of which are linked to by major news organizations, that do “mash-ups” of polls – that is, combining surveys from various pollsters to produce an average that shows a trend. But Bialik notes: “The basic objection to combining polls is that different surveys, conducted differently, at different times, with different sample sizes, don’t belong in the same stew.” And he quotes a column by Pollster.com co-founder Mark Blumenthal in the New York Times, who says: ““If pollsters disclosed more about how their polls were conducted, we would be in a better position to know which polls are likely to be right, and which ones can be safely ignored.”

Read the Pew Research Center poll

Candidates take note: public views of the state of the economy have plummeted since last month when they were already pretty gloomy, according to a Pew Research Center survey taken Jan.30-Feb.2. Only 17 percent of those surveyed rated the economy as excellent or good, down from 26 percent last month. Pew says: "While several factors are driving the public’s economic pessimism, including concerns about the availability of jobs as well as problems in the housing market, rising prices – for gasoline or energy, healthcare, or overall inflation – are mentioned most frequently as the nation’s biggest economic problem:"

Similarly, Gallup reports - when it compares its daily tracking polls from Jan.6-12 to Feb.6-12 - that consumer confidence is downin the first part of February, particularly for middle-class Americans. A third of consumers rated the economy as "poor" compared to 27 percent last month.

Read the Quinnipiac University poll

Quinnipiac University’s swing state poll shows Hillary Clinton with big leads over Barack Obama in states she is looking to as “firewalls” – Ohio on March 4 and Pennsylvania on April 22. However, the poll was conducted Feb.6-12, before Obama’s big wins in Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia. And Peter Brown of Quinnipiac notes, “In some of the earlier contests Obama has closed similar gaps and gone on to win.”

The poll shows Clinton leading Obama 55 percent to 34 percent in Ohio and 52 percent to 36 percent in Pennsylvania. Democrats in each state cite the economy as the top campaign issue (32 percent in Ohio, 27 percent in Pennsylvania) while Iraq is second in each state, 16 percent and 19 percent respectively. Health care comes in third. The Ohio margin of error is 2.3 percent and for Pennsylvania, it’s 2.6 percent.

A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Feb.13, after the Potomac Primaries, shows Clinton ahead of Obama 51 percent to 37 percent, with a 4 percent margin of error. The economy was named the top issue by 53 percent of Democrats with Iraq second at 18 percent.

In Wisconsin where voters go to the polls Tuesday, Rasmussen says that the race is shaping up to be competitive with Obama ahead of Clinton 47 percent to 43 percent, with a 4 percent margin of error. A quarter of the voters say they may yet change their minds.

A Public Policy Polling survey released Tuesday had Obama ahead in Wisconsin 50 percent to 39 percent, while a SurveyUSA poll had Clinton ahead in Ohio 56 percent to 39 percent.

Quinnipiac did a hypothetical general election match-up for Florida, finding John McCain ahead of both Clinton and Obama, but within the survey’s 3.1 percent margin of error. The figures were McCain over Clinton 44 percent to 42 percent and leading Obama 41 percent to 39 percent. Quinnipiac’s sizing-up of the general election match-ups in Florida generally mirrors what national polls have found. The poll also asked if voters were disenchanted enough with President Bush to take it out on McCain, by not voting for him. The answer? No, by a 68 percent to 23 percent margin.

On the subject of general election match-ups, a Zogby poll conducted Feb.8-11 said Obama would beat McCain 47 percent to 36 percent while Clinton would lose to McCain 42 percent to 37 percent. The margin of error is 1.2 percent. But it should be noted that about one-fifth of voters in each match-up dcescribed themselves as undecided.

The news from the Gallup daily tracking poll is about the same today as the last few surveys – Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are in a statistical tie. In the Feb.11-13 survey, Obama leads Clinton 46 percent to 45 percent with a 3 point margin of error. Some of the interviewing took place after Obama’s sweep of the Potomac Primaries but there were no signs yet of any pickup from his string of victories. On the Republican side, John McCain leads Mike Huckabee 51 percent to 29 percent.

An American Research Group poll conducted Feb.9-13 has Obama ahead of Clinton 47 percent to 45 percent with a 4 point margin of error. In its January poll, Clinton had led Obama 47 percent to 27 percent. McCain leads Huckabee 54 percent to 31 percent, a gain for Huckabee of 12 points in the now-narrowed GOP race.

The Rasmussen Reports daily tracking poll is a big departure from Gallup and ARG, showing Obama now with a double-digit lead over Clinton, 49 percent to 37 percent, with a 4 point margin of error. Rasmussen says Obama has opened modest leads over Clinton among women voters and white voters, and has a 69 percent to 10 percent margin among black voters.

Rasmussen's general election match-ups show Obama ahead of McCain 46 percent to 42 percent, while McCain leads Clinton 48 percent to 41 percent.

Gallup provided a historical look about where ultimate nominees of each party stood in its final tracking polls of primaries, drawing the conclusion that McCain is not quite yet at the point of being able to say he has the nomination “sewn up” based on popular preferences.

• February 2004: John Kerry had 64 percent to John Edwards’ 18 percent.
• February 2000: Al Gore led Bill Bradley 65 percent to 28 percent. George Bush led John McCain 57 percent to 34 percent.
• March 1996: Bob Dole has 58 percent to 15 percent each for Pat Buchanan and Steve Forbes.
• March 1992: Bill Clinton had 71 percent to Jerry Brown’s 25 percent.
• May 1988: Mike Dukakis led Jesse Jackson 69 percent to 21 percent. In March, George H.W. Bush led Dole 69 percent to 22 percent.
• May 1984: Walter Mondale led Gary Hart by 46 percent to 34 percent, followed by Jackson at 10 percent.
• March 1980: Ronald Reagan led Bush the First by 55 percent to 25 percent.

Read the full USA Today/Gallup poll

In a survey conducted Feb.8-10, USA Today/Gallup found that the top issue for Republican voters was terrorism. Fifty percent of Republicans cited that as "extremely important" with six other issues bunched up in the 30s, in this order: moral values, corruption in government, the economy, Iraq, illegal immigration and taxes. The ranking of "moral values" could be one explainer on why John McCain has struggled to the extent he did with the voters to whom Mike Huckabee appealed. The difference between most of those second tier issues were within the poll's 6 point margin of error.

The four top issues ranked as "extremely important" by Democrat were also within the margin of error: Iraq (50 percent), healthcare (48 percent), the economy (45 percent), and education (44 percent). For Democrats, terrorism, moral values and illegal immigration were in the bottom four.

The top five issues for Independents -- again, all within the 6 point margin of error of each other -- were the economy, Iraq, corruption, terrorism and energy, including gas prices.

The latest Gallup daily poll tracking report shows little change - in popular support nationally, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are still locked in a statistical tie, 45 percent to 44 percent with a 3 percent margin of error. The survey period was Feb.10-12 and did not reflect Obama's Tuesday night Potomac Primary sweep. Same is true on the GOP side. John McCain leads Mike Huckabee 51 percent to 29 percent with Ron Paul at 6 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll has McCain ahead 45 percent to 33 percent.

However, Rasmussen has different results than Gallup on the Democratic side. This poll puts Obama ahead of Clinton for the first time, 46 percent to 41 percent. The margin of error is 4 percent. Last Week, Clinton had a 6 point lead. Rasmussen says Obama's lead among black voters is 64 percent to 9 percent, while Clinton leads among white voters 47 percent to 43 percent. In one finding that could be a big factor if the general election is a McCain-Obama match-up, the poll said Obama held a big lead among unaffiliated voters likely to vote in a Democratic primary.

In general election match-ups, Obama leads McCain 46 percent to 40 percent, but McCain leads Clinton 46 percent to 42 percent.

Ohio along with Texas is being looked at as a key "firewall" state for Hillary Clinton, much as New Hampshire was after she lost the Iowa caucuses to Barack Obama. If that's the case, early signs look good for Clinton as a SurveyUSA poll has her leading 56 percent to 39 percent - at least among those surveyed Feb.10-11 before Obama swept the Potomac Primary. Twenty-eight percent of voters said they could change their minds, and 49 percent were Clinton supporters and 40 percent were backing Obama for now, Generally reversing what the exit polls said about the Potomac Primary, Clinton is leading in all age groups, although her 51 percent to 46 percent edge among voters 18 to 34 is close to the 3.7 percent margin of error. Among white voters who comprised 82 percent of the sample, she led 62 percent to 32 percent, while Obama led among black voters (16 percent of the sample) by 73 percent to 24 percent. Hispanics made up only 1 percent of those surveyed. Nearly half the voters chose the economy as the top issue and most of them broke for Clinton, while health care and Iraq were second and third respectively.

Early exit polling by CNN in Virginia showed that Barack Obama not only did well among the groups with whom he has been strongest in this campaign, but that he cut into voting blocs that had been strong for Hillary Clinton. Here are some examples:

• Obama bested Clinton among voters over 60 by 52 percent to 47 percent.
• Obama led Clinton among women 58 percent to 42 percent.
• He won 59 percent of votes from those who earn less than $50,000 a year and 62 percent among those who said they were labor union members.

As expected, 90 percent of black voters sided with Obama. The one place Clinton had a significant edge, as in earlier polls and votes, was among Virginia Democrats who said experience was the most decisive factor, and they backed her with 96 percent. [ Exit polls reported by MSNBC and the Associated Press had these highlights:

• Obama won the votes of 80 percent of Virginia Democrats under the age of 30.
• Nearly 70 percent Republican voters called themselves conservatives and Mike Huckabee won half their votes. Thirty-seven percent of Virginia Republican voters were born-again evangelical Christians. They voted 63 percent for Huckabee and just 28 percent for McCain.. Huckabee also won half of those who said they were looking for someone who shared their values.
• Voters in both parties picked the economy as the most important issue.
• Lots of new voters. Over a third of Virginia Democrats said they had not voted in a primary before, as did almost 20 percent in Maryland.
• Republican voters in Virginia who said they frequently listened to conservative talk radio voted 51 percent for Huckabee, while non-listeners voted 57 percent for McCain. But in Maryland, frequent listeners still supported McCain over Huckabee.

Real the full USA Today/Gallup poll

The USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Feb.8-10 finds most Democrats believe both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are better than most candidates who have run in their lifetimes (62 percent say it about Clinton and 60 percent about Obama). But among Republicans, only 34 percent say that of John McCain and 52 percent rank him as not much different than other candidates. Gallup says that what this dynamic means for the general election is unclear, as horse-race polls show McCain competitive with both Democrats in a general election. The margin of error is 3 percent.

Read the Public Policy Polling results

Anti-Iraq sentiment is helping Barack Obama to a 50 percent to 39 percent lead over Hillary Clinton in next Tuesday's Wisconsin primary, even though the war has not made it to the top of the issue list among Democrats in other national or state-by-state polls. Asked to choose among seven issues, 35 percent of Democrats chose the economy and an equal number chose Iraq as the top issue. Obama led by 55 percent to 34 percent among the voters who chose Iraq. Obama leads Clinton among white voters 49 percent to 41 percent and among black voters by 66 percent to 24 percent. Margin of error for Democrats is 3.9 percent in this poll, which was conducted Feb.11.

Dean Debnan of Public Polling said that if there was standard turnout for the primary, Obama would only be leading Clinton 46 percent to 42 percent, but that the bigger lead for Obama in this survey was due to the expectation of a greater turnout for young people and black voters. The Madison Capitol Times reported the other day that officials expect turnout to be the highest in 20 years.

John McCain leads Mike Huckabee 53 percent to 32 percent, with a 3.7 percent margin of error. Ron Paul polls at 7 percent. The top issue for Republicans was the economy at 30 percent, followed by Iraq at 21 percent and family and moral values at 20 percent. McCain trounced Huckabee in every issue category except moral and family values where Huckabee led 58 percent to 24 percent and immigration, where McCain led 41 percent to 33 percent.

For some reading on what's happening in Wisconsin, the Milwaukee Journal today ran a piece, Campaign Hits Wisconsin In Earnest On Tuesday.

Looking ahead to March 4 and the crucial Ohio primary, SurveyUSA says that a poll conducted Feb.10-11 shows Clinton leading Obama 56 percent to 39 percent, with a margin of error of 3.7 percent. The New York Times had a front page story today saying that "For Clinton, Bid Hinges On Texas and Ohio."

Read the Pew Research Center analysis

Pew Research Center has done an analysis of young voters, ages 18 to 29, based on Super Tuesday exit polling. Pew says, “a clear majority of registered voters ages 18-29 say they are Democrats or lean to the Democratic Party while about a third identify with the Republican Party.” The analysis says this reflects a continued trend from 2004 when young voters gave Democratic Presidential nominee John Kerry his highest level of support and again in 2006 when young voters were the most supportive bloc for Democratic congressional candidates. Youth turnout increased as a percentage of the total vote in early primary states this year.

Barack Obama has won a majority of this vote in every caucus and primary state so far except for California, Arkansas and Massachusetts.

The Gallup daily tracking poll says that John McCain's high of 57 percent in its Feb.7-9 survey has slipped to 52 percent while Mike Huckabee has moved up from 23 percent to 28 percent in the latest Feb.9-11 poll. Ron Paul, who announced today that he would not support McCain, has 5 percent. Huckabee showed increased strength in interviews conducted Monday night. It also should be noted that Huckabee has been creeping up on McCain in today's Virginia primary, although he still trails by a big margin in Maryland.

Interesting discussion on McCain and Evangelical vote posted over at the Pew Research Center.

Things are pretty much where they were on the Democratic side, where Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 45 percent to 44 percent, with a 3 point margin of error.

A new poll by American Research Group poll, conducted Feb.10-11, is showing what some other surveys have found -- that Mike Huckabee is on the move in Virginia. John McCain leads him 47 percent to 39 percent with a 4 point margin of error, but that represents a 7 point loss for McCain and a 7 point gain for Huckabee since the Feb.8-9 survey. However, McCain retains a big lead in Maryland, 53 percent to 27 percent.

The ARG poll has Barack Obama leading Clinton in Maryland 55 percent to 38 percent, about the same as in the last survey and consistent with findings of other pollsters. In Virginia, the standings are also about the same as before, Obama ahead 57 percent to 40 percent. Margins of error were 4 percent.

Are you ready for November? A lot, of course, could change, but if the contest began today, a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Feb.8-10 shows that any match-ups between John McCain and either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama would fall within the survey's 4 point margin of error. McCain leads Clinton 49 percent to 48 percent among all likely voters, and trails Obama 50 percent to 46 percent. This outcome is pretty consistent with earlier hypothetical matchups by Gallup and others (see Time Magazine's Feb. 1-4 poll).. McCain's showing is impressive on at least one point which is that some other polls have indicated the Democrats are more enthusiastic about their choices.

An Associated Press-Ipsos poll conducted Feb.7-10 said Obama was ahead of McCain 48 percent to 42 percent while Clinton matched up against him 46 percent to 45 percent, with a 3.1 percent margin of error.

USA Today says its poll with Gallup also showed that Obama had passed Clinton among Democrats for the first time in its national survey, although within the margin of error. Obama led 47 percent to 44 percent with the margin of error at 5 points.

Read Constituent Dynamics/RT Strategies poll

This poll, conducted Feb. 8-9, attempts to give both popular vote percentages and likely delegate outcomes by district for the Potomac Primary elections. Barack Obama is on his way to a clear and decisive sweep of Maryland, Virginia and Washington, D.C., according to this poll. Here are its results:

• Maryland: Obama leads Clinton 53 percent to 36 percent when you combine strongly decided and leaning voters. It projects Obama winning 38 delegates, Clinton 26 and 6 being too close to call. Margin of error is 1.75 percent.
• Virginia: Obama leads 51 percent to 34 percent among strong and leaning voters. Margin of error is 1.48 percent. The poll projects Obama winning 45 delegates to Clinton's 32 with 6 too close to call.
• District of Columbia: Obama leads 63 percent to 27 percent, with the margin of error 2.82 percent. Obama wins 10 delegates to Clinton's 4, with 1 too close to call.

SurveyUSA’s final poll on Virginia, conducted Feb. 9-10, suggests that Mike Huckabee got a significant bounce from his primary victories over the weekend. John McCain leads 48 percent to Huckabee’s 37 percent, but McCain is now down 9 points while Huckabee gained 12. The margin of error is 5.1 percent. Huckabee leads among conservatives 45 percent to 40 percent, while McCain has a big edge among moderates, 68 percent to 23 percent but those who described themselves as conservatives represented 63 percent of the sample in Virginia compared to 27 percent who said they were moderates.

However, the bounce did not extend further north to Maryland, where McCain leads Huckabee 52 percent to 26 percent. Even though the proportions of self-described conservatives to moderates was similar to Virginia, McCain outpolled Huckabee among conservatives by 45 percent to 33 percent while retaining a big edge among moderates.

On the Democratic side, SurveyUSA has Obama ahead of Clinton by 60 percent to 38 percent in Virginia, about the same it reported on Saturday. Same is true for Maryland where Obama leads 55 percent to 32 percent.

For those of you who want to read more on Tuesday's "Potomac Primary," check out:

• Black Clinton Supporters Finding Her Tough Sell in "Potomac Primary" in the Washington Post
• Clinton Struggles To Avert Potomac Sweep By Obama in the Baltimore Sun
• Obama Tells Large Virginia Crowd: "This Is Our Time" in the Norfolk Virginian-Pilot

On the heels of today's Gallup tracking poll showing Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in a statistical tie, a new Associated Press-Ipsos poll conducted Feb.7-10 has Obama ahead of Clinton by a statistical hair, 46 percent to 41 percent, with a 4.3 percent ,margin of error. John McCain leads Mike Huckabee 44 percent to 30 percent with Ron Paul at 9 percent. The margin of error was 5.2 percent.

In hyopthetical general election match-ups, Obama leads McCain 48 percent to 42 percent, with a 3.1 percent margin of error. Clinton leads by only 46 percent to 45 percent. This about squares with last week's Time Magazine poll which said that Obama ran slightly better than Clinton against McCain.

If you're keeping an eye on tomorrow's "Potomac Primary," check out the latest here.

Gallup's says its daily Feb. 7-8 tracking report shows Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are basically tied at 48 percent to 46 percent, within the survey's 3 point margin of error. That's down from her 5 point lead on Sunday and her 11 point lead in the Feb. 4-6 survey. If Obama gets a big bounce from tomorrow's Potomac Primary - and polls show him in the lead in Maryland and Virginia - that could change the equation in the poll numbers.

John McCain is leading Mike Huckabee 56 percent to 25 percent.

A Gallup look inside the numbers of all the tracking polls between Feb. 1-9 adds that while Clinton enjoys a big gender gap over Obama among white women, the same is not true among black women. Black women favor Obama 66 percent to 23 percent, about the same as his 69 percent to 25 percent margin among black men. Clinton's margin among white women voters is 59 percent to 31 percent. Gallup says Obama's large lead over Clinton among black voters is less due to a rejection of Clinton than enthusiasm for Obama. Both enjoy nearly equally favorable ratings among black voters, and the same is generally true among white voters.

Clinton's margin over Obama among Hispanic voters is 60 percent to 34 percent, with big margins among both men and women.

An American Research Group poll conducted Feb.8-9 says Obama leads Clinton in Maryland 55 percent to 37 percent, with a 4 point margin of error. In Virginia, Obama's lead is 56 percent to 38 percent, in a survey conducted during the same period and with the same margin of error. John McCain leads Huckabee in Virginia 54 percent to 32 percent and in Maryland by 50 percent to 25 percent with 11 percent for Ron Paul.

See some of the polls that ran over the weekend, showing much the same results.

Read full Gallup report

Gallup's daily tracking report for Feb. 7-9, which did not include the impact of Barack Obama's triumphant weekend, has Hillary Clinton in fron by 48 percent to 43 percent with a 3 point margin of error. This was the same margin as the previous tracking poll but a drop for Clinton from the Feb .4-6 survey where she led 51 percent to 40 percent.

John McCain leads Mike Huckabee 57 percent to 23 percent, now that Mitt Romney's drop-out has fully removed him from the poll's three day rolling average. McCain has been the beneficiary of Romney's withdrawal.McCain picked up 17 points while Huckabee gained only two.

Read the Richmond Times-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon poll

Barack Obama is leading Hillary Clinton in this poll by 53 percent to 37 percent, a big margin that is consistent with SurveyUSA and Rasmussen Reports polls that we reported yesterday (and which also showed big Obama leads in Maryland). The survey was conducted Feb. 7-8 and has a margin of error of 5 percent. The dynamics in the race are pretty much the same as reported in other states: voters who prize experience favor Clinton, and those more concerned about change support Obama. Black voters support Obama 82 percent to 9 percent, men favor him 59 percent to 32 percent and he even bests Clinton among women voters, 49 percent to 41 percent. Top three issues listed by Democrats are the economy and jobs, health care and Iraq, in that order.

John McCain leads Mike Huckabee 57 percent to 27 percent. The top three issues for Republicans, in order, are the economy and jobs, moral and family issues and immigration.

Read the latest coverage in the Washington Post and Baltimore Sun.

Read the Associated Press exit poll story

Black voters made up about half the Louisiana electorate and Barack Obama was the choice of 86 percent of them, a margin that is in synch, though somewhat higher, than he is now enjoying in polls in Maryland and Virginia. Hillary Clinton won among white voters by 58 percent to 30 percent. However, three-quarters of the voters said race wasn't the factor in their decisions. Obama won in all income categories and voters under 65.

On the Republican side, there was a huge ideological divide, something that frequently has shown up in polls of individual primary states, but less so in some national polls like Gallup. Republicans in Louisiana who called themselves very conservative - 44 percent of the turnout - supported winner Mike Huckabee by 54 percent to 30 percent. The two split voters who said they were somewhat conservative. Huckabee beat McCain, although by smaller margins, among voters who said they chose a candidate who "says what he believes" and those who said their choice was based on who most shared their values.

Margins of error were 4 points for the Democrats and 6 points for the Republicans.

Read the full Gallup analysis

Gallup has analyzed the daily tracking polls it has done between Feb. 1-7 and found that the more education a Democrat has, he or she is less likely to support Hillary Clinton and more likely to support Barack Obama. Women are more likely to support Clinton and men are more likely to support Obama. The margin of error is 2 points.

Read the full Newsweek story

This poll conducted Feb. 6-7 shows a divided Democrat party, with Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton 42 percent to 41 percent among Democrats and those who lean to Democrats. The margin of error is 5 percent. The poll added that 62 percent of Clinton supporters and 60 percent of Obama supporters felt strongly about their choice. Ready for the “change” question? While Obama is seen is the more exciting and inspiring candidate (63 percent to 25 percent), the margin is smaller when it comes to who is more likely to bring about change (44 percent to 38 percent). Unsurprisingly, Clinton wins on the experience question, 62 percent to 22 percent. Obama has 68 percent support among African-Americans, 49 percent among college graduates and 47 percent among men, while Clinton enjoys more support among white voters (44 percent), voters with high school education or less (48 percent) and voters over 60 (44 percent).

The Gallup daily tracking poll, conducted Feb. 6-8, has Clinton ahead 48 percent to 43 percent, with a 3 point margin of error.

On the Republican side, when voters were asked to choose just between John McCain and Mike Huckabee (Mitt Romney dropped out during the survey period), McCain led 57 percent to 37 percent. Just how deep does conservative dislike of McCain go? Maybe not all that deep: the poll found that 76 percent of all Republicans and 69 percent of conservatives said they would be happy with McCain as nominee.

Two sets of polls show that Barack Obama has leads of 20 points or more in Maryland and Virginia which vote Tuesday as part of the “Potomac Primary” that also includes the District of Columbia. One headline is that Obama is running about even with Clinton among white voters, which had not been true in many Super Tuesday polls. He retains his large edge among black voters.

For a good discussion of the Potomac Primary and other upcoming states, read the transcript of the Washington Post’s live chat with Larry Sabato, the founder of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. Also, read the latest coverage in the Washington Post and Baltimore Sun.

Obama is way ahead of Clinton, 52 percent to 32 percent, in Maryland, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted Feb. 7-8. Margin of error is 3.7 percent. The two run roughly even among white voters, but Obama leads 71 percent to 18 percent among black voters and Clinton’s margin among Hispanics is smaller than in many other places, 48 percent to 42 percent. (See a Chicago Tribune story about the reasons behind Clinton's strength with Hispanics). Obama leads Clinton on almost ever major issue except Social Security. A Rasmussen Reports poll taken Feb. 6 shows Obama with an even wider 57 percent to 31 percent lead, with a 4 point margin of error. Rasmussen also says white voters split about even while Obama leads 82 percent to 12 percent among black voters.

SurveyUSA says Obama also has a big lead in Virgina, 59 percent to 39 percent, with a 4.1 percent margin of error. As in Maryland, they run neck-and-neck among white voters while Obama has a 7-to-1 lead among black voters. These results are mirrored again by a Rasmussen Reports poll that has Obama winning 55 percent to 37 percent, and showing similar numbers to SurveyUSA on how they are doing among white and black voters. The margin of error is 4 percent. The poll was conducted Feb. 6-7.

It looks like Barack Obama's performance on Super Tuesday has given him some lift. The Gallup daily tracking poll for Feb. 5-7, which now contains two days of interviewing following the primaries, shows Hillary Clinton's lead down to 49 percent to 42 percent, compared to her 11 and 13 point margins in the two previous polls. On the Republican side, the poll still counted Mitt Romney for the two days before he withdrew, and showed John McCain at 46 percent, Romney at 19 percent and Huckabee at 18 percent. Gallup said it detected no sunstantial movement towards Huckabee with Romney's departure. The margin of error is 3 points.

In a poll conducted Feb. 1-4, before Super Tuesday, Time found that while Democrats favor Hillary Clinton for their nomination over Barack Obama by 48 percent to 42 percent, Obama does better than Clinton when matched up against John McCain in a general election. Obama bests McCain 48 percent to 41 percent, while Clinton runs dead even with him at 46 percent. Mark Shulman of Abt SRBI, which conducted the poll, said, the difference is that "independents tilt toward McCain when he is matched up against Clinton But they tilt toward Obama when he is matched up against the Illinois Senator."

Read the full Gallup poll

The first Gallup daily tracking poll that includes any post-Super Tuesday interviewing shows that shows a slightly smaller lead for Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama than yesterday's survey. The Feb. 4-6 survey has Clinton with a 51 percent to 40 percent lead, compared to 52 percent to 39 percent in the previous poll. The margin of error is 3 points. Gallup says, "It appears Clinton will not expand her lead further, but that the race may tighten again, perhaps in response to news accounts of the Super Tuesday results."

Ironically, given his exit today from the GOP race, Mitt Romney was closer to John McCain than he was last week. McCain leads Romney 40 percent to 26 percent, compared to six days ago when the gap was 20 percent. Mike Huckabee polled 21 percent.

Our round-ups of pre-Super Tuesday state polls noted a couple of times that Zogby International differed with several other polls on the California race. Zogby's polls had Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton, and Mitt Romney ahead of John McCain. The Field Poll, which specializes in California, had a close Clinton-Obama race showing Clinton ahead by 36 percent to 34 percent, with a 4.5 percent margin of error but, unlike Zogby, put McCain ahead of Romney 32 percent to 24 percent.

John Zogby posted this note today:

" About California: Some of you may have noticed our pre-election polling differed from the actual results. It appears that we underestimated Hispanic turnout and overestimated the importance of younger Hispanic voters. We also overestimated turnout among African-American voters. Those of you who have been following our work know that we have gotten 13 out of 17 races right this year, and so many others over the years. This does happen."

Zogby also posted a report card on his other Super Tuesday polls.

Read the full USA Today/Gallup poll

Further confirming the grim mood of Americans about the economy, a USA Today/Gallup poll said 8 in 10 of those surveyed already believe the U.S. is in an economic slowdown or an actual recession, (46 percent said slowdown, 33 percent said recession and 12 percent said depression). The poll had a 2 point margin of error. This survey conforms with others we reported yesterday.

Today's Gallup daily tracking poll on consumer confidence paimts a similar picture.

That's the last line of a fine piece on the patchy record of election polls by George Bishop, in Sunday's Washington Post. Which we thought worth pointing out to you now that the pre-Super Tuesday rush of polls is over, and we have a little time to catch our breaths before the next round of votes. Bishop, a University of Cincinnati professor who wrote a book about polls called "The Illusion of Public Opinion," says the key question when it comes to the accuracy of polls is: "In dutifully answering pollsters' survey questions, do voters really know how likely they are to vote? Do they actually know when they finally decided whom to vote for? And how do they know whether they're likely to change their minds at the last moment and vote for someone else? "

(There's a piece in Newsweek that circles around the same question, "When It's Head Versus the Heart, The Heart Wins.")

"When we ask survey respondents which issue or which candidate quality most influenced their votes, we shouldn't take their self-reports at face value," Bishop says, and draws this conclusion: "Along with demographic analyses of the electorate, such self-reports may provide some useful clues about what factors might have mattered, or what media messages and partisan spin voters may have been exposed to during the campaign, but not much else. It will tell us very little, psychologically, about why a given contest turned out the way it did."

But Bishop offers some consolation for those misled by polls during the primary season. With the exception of the famous "Dewey Beats Truman" disaster, he says polls for the general election have a record of "outstanding accuracy."

Read the full Gallup tracking poll

The Gallup daily tracking poll - this one conducted Feb.3-5 - showed Hillary Clinton's support growing on a national basis, although it should be noted the survey was mostly conducted before Super Tuesday results were known. So there won't be any clues until tomorrow whether the knock-down, drag-out battle of the states fought by Clinton and Barack Obama yesterday has changed voter perceptions of the candidates, or the dynamics of the race.

Obama had closed the gap to as little as 3 points in this poll, leading up to Super Tuesday. But today's survey shows Clinton with a double-digit lead, 52 percent to 39 percent over Obama. The margin of error is 3 percent.

On the Republican side, things stayed pretty much the same with John McCain leading Mitt Romney 41 percent to 25 percent with Mike Huckabee at 21 percent. The margin of error was also 3 percent here.

While we're here, worth noting is a report put out by American University’s Center for the Study of the American Electorate. The Center's preliminary finding reports that "voter turnout on Super Tuesday, and in earlier primaries, is on pace to break the record turnout seen during the 1972 presidential primaries. With 27 percent of eligible citizens voting in primaries so far, this year’s primary turnout will eclipse the 25.9 percent average recorded in 1972."

Read the USA Today/Gallup poll

Opposition to the war in Iraq remains steady despite news reports and assertions from Administration officials that the "surge" has reduced violence in that country, according to a USA Today/Gallup survey conducted Jan.30-Feb.2. The numbers are about the same as two months ago, and about the same as those opposed to Iraq policy shortly after the surge was announced last year. Democrats who opposed the war were as likely to support Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, which is a result that is somewhat different than many of the polls of individual Super Tuesday states that usually had Obama picking up much of these voters. Margin of error was 2 points.

Read opposing views, "Surge To Nowhere," and "Making Iraq Safe For Politics," from the Washington Post. Also, "Poll Shows More Optimism On War" by Washington Post/ABC News, from December.

Want to hear Gallup editor Frank Newport on "Super Tuesday And Beyond?" Go here for the video.

See ABC News Consumer Comfort Index

Echoing other polls in recent days, ABC News said a poll released late on Super Tuesday that consumer confidence had dropped to a 14 year low this week, a decline much like that seen during the recessions of 1990-91 and 2001. So, it’s no surprise how highly the economy ranked in Super Tuesday exit polls, and the polls nationally and in each state that led up to Tuesday’s vote. Only 22 percent rated the economy as excellent or good, down 5 points from last week. The margin of error is 3 points.

Gallup's daily tracking poll of consumer confidence reports today that only 3 percent of the public describes the economy as "excellent," and only 19 percent say it is "good." Seventy-nine percent believe the economy is getting worse. the interviews were conducted Feb. 3-5 and the margin of error is 3 percent.

Read the full Gallup poll

Well, Super Tuesday is over, and one more result is in aside from the outcome at the polls. Gallup says that a survey conducted Jan. 30-Feb.2 found 4 in 10 Democrats thought that Hillary and Bill (yes, Bill too) Clinton had attacked Barack Obama unfairly. As a result, Bill Clinton’s image among Democrats has declined in the last few months. In the poll, 41 percent of Democrats said Bill Clinton had attacked Obama unfairly, 35 percent said that Hillary Clinton had, and only 23 percent said they thought Obama has attacked Clinton unfairly. The margin of error is 3 percent. Hendrik Hertzberg has a good piece on the Clinton-Obama “spat” in this week’s New Yorker.

A USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted Jan. 30-Feb.2, reported that Americans are unusually focused on this year's election, more so than for any recent election at this time in the election-year cycle. The poll found that 71 percent of thus surveyed said they had given "quite a lot of thought" to the election, a number that Gallup called "extraordinarily high" for this time in the election cycle. The number compared to 58 percent for the same period in 2004.

The final round of state polls for Super Tuesday are coming in, showing a tight John McCain-Mitt Romney race is California and disagreement about whether Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama has the upper hand there. Both races are competitive in Missouri, Obama has the upper hand in Georgia and still has a chance in New Jersey, according to these polls. One poll has Mike Huckabee ahead in Tennessee.

• California: Zogby has Obama ahead of Clinton 49 percent to 36 percent, in a state where a number of polls have differed. The margin of error is 3.3 percent.An American Research Group poll had the reverse: Clinton ahead of Obama by 47 percent to 39 percent with a 4 point margin of error. SurveyUSA agrees, putting Clinton ahead 52 percent to 42 percent. On the Republican, side where the polls also have differed, Zogby says Romney is in front of McCain in this one, 40 percent to 33 percent with Huckabee at 12 percent. 8 percent are undecided and the margin of error is 3.4 percent. The American Research Group poll had Romney ahead of McCain 33 percent to 32 percent with Huckabee at 16 percent. Margin of error is 4 percent. SurveyUSA also shows Romney effectively tied with McCain, leading him 39 percent to 38 percent with Huckabee at 11 percent. The margin of error is 4.2 percent.
• Missouri: The Zogby poll says Clinton leads Obama 45 percent to 42 percent, with a margin of error of 3.4 percent. On the Republican side, This race remained competitive, with McCain at 34 percent, Huckabee at 27 percent and Romney at 25 percent, with a 3.4 percent margin of error. Huckabee leads Romney among “very conservative” voters, Zogby said.
• New Jersey: The Zogby poll shows Clinton regaining a lead over Obama 46 percent to 41 percent - after being tied in an earlier survey. Obama showed much strength with younger voters. Margin of error is 3.4 percent. On the Republican side, McCain has a big 53 percent to 24 percent lead over Romney with Huckabee at 5 percent.
• New York: Same as New Jersey here when it comes to the Republicans – McCain ahead of Romney 56 percent to 20 percent with Huckabee at 7 percent, according to Zogby.
• Georgia: Obama leads Clinton 49 percent to 29 percent, picking up a point in a Zogby poll while Clinton fell by two. Obama had 68 percent of black voters who made up half the sample.
  • Tennessee: Clinton leads Obama 59 percent to 37 percent, with a 4 point margin of error in an American Research Group poll. Huckabee leads McCain 36 percent to 30 percent with Romney at 27 percent. Also a 4 point margin of error.

Read the full Washington Post-ABC poll on the economy

Read the latest polling showing a tight Democratic presidential race and John McCain’s commanding lead

Voters are going to the polls in 24 states around the country Tuesday against a backdrop of increased pessimism about the economy. A Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted Jan.30-Feb.1 says the public view of the economy is more negative than at any time in the last 15 years and few believe the stimulus program being hatched in Washington will help much. More than 8 in 10 Americans described the economy as “not so good” or “poor.” This concern on the economy has also shown up in the polls taken in each state with a primary or caucus on Super Tuesday, particularly among Democrats who consistently list it as the top issue of concern. You can see CQ Politics’ wrap-up of the state-by-state polls here and here.

The Gallup poll has been reporting similar findings. Today, Gallup said: “As January began, more consumers (nearly one in three) rated current economic conditions ‘excellent’ or ‘good’ than rated them ‘poor’ (about one in four). By the end of the month, these percentages were reversed, with about one in four consumers saying the economy was ‘excellent’ or ‘good’ while one in three said it was ‘poor.’”

Read the full CNN/Opinion Research poll

Check here for the latest round-up of polls from Super Tuesday states.

The Democratic presidential race has closed to a virtual tie with Barack Obama ahead of Hillary Clinton by 49 percent to 46 percent, well within a 4.5 percent margin of error in this new CNN/Opinion Research poll. In last month’s poll, Clinton had led Obama 42 percent to 33 percent. CNN says that if you average its poll with the other big ones we reported over the weekend – Gallup, Pew Research Center, ABC News/Washington Post and CBS/New York Times – Clinton leaves Obama by a scant 45 percent to 43 percent.

The Gallup daily tracking poll conducted Feb. 1-3 has Clinton leading Obama 47 percent to 43 percent with a 3 percent margin of error. McCain leads Romney 45 percent to 25 percent with 17 percent for Huckabee.

A Cook Political Report/RT Strategies survey conducted Jan.31-Feb.2 had Obama ahead of Clinton 43 percent to 37 percent, a big reversal from December when Clinton led in this poll by 38 percent to 26 percent. The margin of error is 51. percent. Among Republicans, McCain is in front, 39 percent to 24 percent over Romney with Huckabee at 18 percent. Margin of error is 5.6 percent.

In hypothetical general election match-ups, Obama is ahead of McCain by a hair 45 percent to 43 percent, and bests Romney 51 percent to 40 percent. McCain beats Clinton 45 percent to 41 percent, but Clinton leads Romney 48 percent to 42 percent. Margin of error is 3.1 percent.

This general election finding pretty much matches up with the one in Sunday's Washington Post-ABC News poll Post-ABC News poll which said McCain would beat Clinton 49 percent to 46 percent, but would lose to Obama by the same margin. Romney would lose to either Democrat by double-digits. The Pew poll found that McCain and Obama “stand apart from the other candidates in their wide appeal across partisan lines.”

An NPR poll conducted Jan. 29-31 by Public Opinion Strategies and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research had McCain in a statistical dead heat with both Obama and Clinton: ahead of Clinton 48 percent to 45 percent and ahead of Obama 48 percent to 47 percent, both with a 3 percent margin of error. Obama beats Romney 53 percent to 41 percent, but Clinton holds a smaller lead over Romney, 49 percent to 44 percent.

There is an excellent analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of both Super Tuesday and national polls at Pollster.com, including an explanation of the differences between Democrats and Republicans about what "victory" in a state means.

Check here for a round-up of recent polls from Super Tuesday states.

Our round-up of the state-by-state polls for Super Tuesday shows competitive Hillary Clinton-Barack Obama races in Connecticut, Missouri, California and possibly New Jersey. John McCain has a fight on his hands in Georgia.

Check here for a look at the big national polls (CNN, Gallup and Cook Political Report) that came out today. All showed McCain way out in front, while Clinton and Obama were locked in a tight race.

Read the full CBS News/New York Times poll

Check out the Washington Post/ABC News, Pew Research and Gallup polls from earlier Sunday.

Check out the state-by-state Super Tuesday polls.

Yet another major national poll out today: the CBS News New York Times poll has Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama tied at 41 percent in a survey conducted Jan. 30-Feb.2 with a margin of error of 5 percent. In early January, she led Obama by 15 points. On the electability question, Obama has substantially narrowed the gap among Democrats. The poll finds that Clinton is in a better position when only the Super Tuesday states are taken into account. Clinton holds a big advantage on the issue that Democrats say matter most - the economy.

On the Republican side, the poll says John McCain "seems on his way to effectively wrapping up the GOP nomination on Feb. 5, if not soon thereafter." He leads 2-to-1 over Mitt Romney, 46 percent to 23 percent with Mike Huckabee at 12 percent.

This latest wrap-up of polls from states that vote on Super Tuesday show close Democratic contests in California, Missouri, and Arizona and possibly even in Hillary Clinton’s neighboring state, New Jersey. These horse races reflect the three national polls we reported earlier today – Gallup, Pew Research and Washington Post/ABC News. The state where John McCain faces the biggest challenge is Georgia.

For Democratic voters, the economy is consistently the biggest issue with health care or Iraq second. The economy is frequently the big issue on the Republican side as well, but there are some states where national security and terrorism is the biggest concern, and immigration always ranks higher on the Republican side than with the Democrats.

Heard enough about “change” versus “experience?” Sorry, although you can take some consolation that in some states, Democratic voters put the most freight on whether the candidate “cares about the issues I care about,” and Clinton wins on this one. The old news is that Obama leads her among voters wanting change, and she leads Obama among voters prizing experience.

Missouri Republicans had one distinction: unlike other states where the economy or national security was the top issue, they put moral and family issues at number one.

California: Three polls tell three different stories. The prestigious Field Poll, a specialist on the state, says its Jan. 25 to Feb. 1 survey showed a tightening Democratic race with Clinton leading Obama 36 percent to 34 percent, well within the 4.5 percent margin of error. A McClatchy/MSNBC poll conducted Jan.30-Feb.1 shows Clinton leading Obama in this delegate-rich state by 45 percent to 36 percent, with a 5 point margin of error. Fifteen percent of voters said they might yet change their minds. Voters who cared most about “change” favored Obama 65 percent to 22 percent while those who valued experience most favored Clinton 92 percent to 2 percent. The economy was far ahead of all other issues concerning voters. Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby has Obama leading Clinton 45 percent to 41 percent with a 2.9 percent margin of error in a Jan. 31-Feb.2 poll.

On the Republican side, Field says McCain now leads Romney 32 percent to 24 percent with Huckabee at 13 percent. Two weeks ago, McCain’s lead in the Field poll was 4 percent. McClatchy/MSNBC says McCain leads Romney 40 percent to 31 percent with Huckabee at 13 percent. A much higher percentage of Republicans than Democrats – 26 percent – said they might yet change their minds. As far as the issues most important to Republican voters, 25 percent cited the economy, 24 percent said national security or terrorism and 17 percent chose immigration.

New Jersey: Two conflicting polls on the Democratic race. Clinton leads Obama in this neighbor to her home state by 46 percent to 39 percent in this McClatchy/MSNBC poll conducted Jan. 30-Feb.1 Margin of error is 5 percent. Obama had a 3-to-1 margin over Clinton on voters most interested in change, while Clinton had an 86 percent to 3 percent lead on the experience factor (29 percent of the Democrats placed most importance on change, while 15 percent said experience was the key criterion). Democrats cited the economy as the top issue with 43 percent and Iraq second at 20 percent. But Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby says its Jan.31-Feb. 2 poll shows Clinton at 43 percent to 42 percent for Obama, with a 3.4 percent margin of error and 14 percent undecided.

On the GOP side, McCain has a 46 percent to 31 percent lead over Romney, with Huckabee at 5 percent, according to McClatchy/MSNBC. On issues, the economy was Number One at 30 percent with national security and terrorism at 20 percent. Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby says Romney is ahead of McCain 37 percent to 34 percent with Huckabee at 12 percent. The margin of error is 2.9 percent. Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby’s poll has McCain besting Romney 54 percent to 23 percent with Huckabee at 6 percent.

Missouri: In this closely-watched competitive state, a MSNBC/MClatchy poll conducted Jan.30-Feb.1 has Clinton 47 percent to 41 percent over Obama with a 5 point margin of error. Clinton leads 52 percent to 35 percent among white voters while Obama out-polls her among black voters by 79 percent to 13 percent. Among Democrats who care most about change (22 percent of respondents), Obama leads 59 percent to 34 percent, while those who value experience the most (25 percent) favor Clinton by 84 percent to 8 percent. Democrats said the economy was the most important issue, at 46 percent, followed by health care at 23 percent and Iraq at 12 percent. A Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll conducted Jan. 31-Feb.2 has Clinton statistically tied with Obama 44 percent to 43 percent with a 3.4 percent margin of error.

On the GOP side, McClatchy/MSNBC says McCain leads with 37 percent followed by Huckabee at 27 percent and Romney at 24 percent. A quarter of Republican voters said they might yet change their minds. Voters who said leadership was their most important consideration chose McCain, 59 percent compared to mid-teen standings by Romney and Huckabee. Huckabee led McCain and Romney by about 2-to-1 among voters who said “shares my values” was the most important. Missouri Republicans presented a different picture on the issues front than most other states: one-quarter said moral and family issues was the most important, followed by the economy at 23 percent, terrorism at 23 percent and taxes and government spending at 13 percent.

Georgia: Obama has taken a commanding 52 percent to 37 percent lead over Clinton in this Feb. 2 Rasmussen Reports survey. His lead had been 6 points before his victory in South Carolina. The economy was the top issue for 51 percent of Democratic voters while Iraq stood at 18 percent. A McClatchy/MSNBC poll conducted Jan. 30-Feb. 1 has Obama ahead but by a smaller 47 percent to 41 percent margin, with a 5 point margin of error. This poll pretty much follows the trend of other states polls in showing Clinton ahead among white voters; Obama way ahead among black voters; Obama leading bigtime among those who prize “change” (22 percent) and Clinton with a big lead among those who value experience most (17 percent). But on the criterion that was chosen by most Georgia Democrats (31 percent) - “cares about the issues I care about” – Clinton led Obama 54 percent to 31 percent. Democrats chose economy as the most important issue at 44 percent with health care second at 24 percent. The Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Jan.31-Feb 2 poll has Obama beating Clinton 48 percent to 28 percent.

On the Republican side, this is one place where McCain is locked in a tight race. He leads with 31 percent to Romney’s 29 percent and Huckabee’s 28 percent, with a 4 point margin of error, according to Rasmussen. A significant chunk of likely voters say they might change their minds before stepping into the booth. The economy is the top issue for Republicans at 37 percent with immigration second at 18 percent. McClatchy/MSNBC also showed a tight race with McCain at 33 percent, Romney at 27 percent and Huckabee at 18 percent. A quarter of voters said they might still change their minds. The three were grouped together in the 20’s among Republicans who said they would make their choice based on shared values, while McCain led Romney on the experience measure, 39 percent to 30 percent with Huckabee way behind at 13 percent. Terrorism was the number one issue among GOP voters at 28 percent, followed by the economy at 25 percent.

Arizona: Two polls suggest a tight Democratic race. In a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted, Jan. 31, Clinton leads Obama 46 percent to 41 percent, with a 4 point margin of error. Nearly a third of Democratic voters said they might yet change their mind, but that was 3 days ago. The economy was the top issue for 37 percent of Democrats and Iraq was the most important for 26 percent, followed by health care at 14 percent and immigration at 12 percent. A McClatchy/MSNBC poll shows Clinton ahead of Obama 43 percent to 41 percent, well within the 5 point margin of error. Thirteen percent were undecided. Clinton is thought to have the edge in most places among Hispanic, but here Obama was outrunning her 53 percent to 37 percent. Twenty-eight percent of Democrats said they would make their choice based on which candidate cared about the same issues they cared about, and among those, Clinton bested Obama 48 percent to 29 percent. Of those who valued change the most (21 percent) Obama was the clear winner as usual, and of the 16 percent who valued experience the most, Clinton was far and away the choice.

On the GOP side, McCain, in his home state, led Romney by a 43 percent to 34 percent, although Romney bested McCain among self-described conservatives, according to Rasmussen. Huckabee polled 9 percent. The economy was the top issue for 30 percent of Republicans followed closely by immigration at 26 percent, a much higher total than among Democrats. The Washington Post on Saturday had a story about how immigration has divided the state GOP with the result being a high level of animosity for McCain about his immigration positions.

New York:The Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll conducted Jan.31-Feb.2 has McCain ahead of Romney 49 percent to 23 percent with Huckabee at 8 percent.

Oklahoma: A Tulsa World/Sooner Poll conducted Jan. 27-30 has Clinton far ahead of Obama, but John Edwards was still in the race for two days of the survey. Clinton had 41 percent to Obama’s 17 percent with Edwards in the mid-20s.

On the Republican side, McCain jumped into the lead with 40 percent compared to his 17 percent standing in this poll in December while Huckabee had 19 percent, down 10 points from December, and Romney 17 percent. Voters cited economy as the issue of most concern to them.

To read about the top issues in this campaign region-by-region, check out CQ Politics' summaries for the Northeast, South and the Midwest, with more installments yet to come on the rest of the states.

Three major national polls came out today, telling the same story: Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are locked in a tight race, while John McCain has pulled away from the rest of the GOP field and looks more and more like an un-catchable frontrunner.

A Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted Jan.30-Feb.1 had Clinton leading Obama 47 percent to 43 percent, with a three point margin of error. On the GOP side, John McCain had a 48 percent to 24 percent lead over Mitt Romney, with Mike Huckabee at 16 percent and Ron Paul at 7 percent.

A Pew Research Center survey, conducted Jan.30-Feb.2, gave Clinton a 46 percent to 38 percent lead with a 4.5 percent margin of error. Two significant notes on Pew’s findings: Clinton’s lead has been cut in half since mid-January, and the number of undecided voters has risen from 6 percent to 15 percent, suggesting neither candidate profited much from John Edwards’ withdrawal. On the Republican side, where the margin of error is 5 percent, McCain leads with 42 percent (up from 29 percent in January) to Romney’s 22 percent, Huckabee’s 20 percent and Paul’s 5 percent.

And the Gallup daily tracking poll had Clinton and Obama in a statistical dead heat at 46 percent to 44 percent with a 3 percent margin of error. On the Republican side, McCain was leading Romney 43 percent to 24 percent with 18 percent for Huckabee. Yesterday's Gallup survey had Clinton slightly expanding a margin that had shrunk to 3 points in one of last week's daily reports.

In hypothetical general election match-ups, The Post-ABC News poll said McCain would beat Clinton 49 percent to 46 percent, but would lose to Obama by the same margin. Romney would lose to either Democrat by double-digits. The Pew poll found that McCain and Obama “stand apart from the other candidates in their wide appeal across partisan lines.”

Unsurprisingly, the Post-ABC News poll said that the 46 percent of Democrats who placed most importance on strength and experience, Clinton was favored 75 percent to 17 percent. But the coin flipped among the 45 percent of respondents who cared more about “new direction and news ideas,” with Obama leading 70 percent to 22 percent. Obama has closed the gap on the electability question, with 47 percent of voters believing Clinton had the best chance to become President to Obama’s 42 percent. Clinton bested Obama, when Democratic interviewees were asked who they trusted to better handle the issues of health care, the economy and Iraq.

Some notes from the Pew details:

• Forty one percent of all voters express discomfort with “Bill Clinton back in the White House.” Check out the Washington Post's story today on the Bill Clinton factor.
• Voters across party lines are pretty unhappy with the state of things in the country. Only 24 percent said they were satisfied with the state of the nation, and only 17 percent felt that economic conditions were excellent or good.
• Although a lot of the state-by-state polls in our Super Tuesday wrap-ups have shown a sharp ethnic divide, Pew says that the gap in candidate preferences among black and white Democratic voters has narrowed.

On the Republican side, McCain wins hands-down in the Post-ABC News poll on the electability question, besting Romney 67 percent to 14 percent. Asked who best reflected the core values of the Republican Party, McCain led Romney by a lesser 41 percent to 25 percent.

Pew said its findings among GOP voters show that McCain is the most likely to unite the Republican base, a result similar to the Post-ABC News question about who reflected Republican values the best. McCain is viewed favorably by 61 percent of Huckabee supporters and 59 percent of Romney supporters.

To read about the top issues in this campaign region-by-region, check out CQ Politics' summaries for the Northeast, South and the Midwest, with more installments yet to come on the rest of the states.

Read the full Gallup poll

The latest Gallup tracking poll, conducted Jan. 30-Feb. 1, shows John McCain widening his lead in the Republican race with a closer contest on the Democratic side, although Hillary Clinton slightly added to her margin over Barack Obama since Friday’s poll.

Benefiting from Rudy Giuliani’s withdrawal, McCain gained five points to lead Mitt Romney 44 percent to 24 percent with Mike Huckabee way back at 16 percent. The New York Times has a story today aptly headlined, “Romney Maps A Strategy For Survival.”

In the Democratic race, Clinton leads Obama 48 percent to 41 percent, improving from the 3 point and 4 point leads she held earlier this week. Polls of Super Tuesday states as well as national polls over the last week or so have tended to show Clinton ahead on both levels of the race, but with Obama narrowing the gap. The question is whether he has the time, which is the subject of a piece in the Washington Post today, “Obama Is Racing Against The Clock.”

To read about the top issues in this campaign region-by-region, check out CQ Politics' summaries for the Northeast, South and the Midwest, with more installments yet to come on the rest of the states.

Our latest wrap-up of polls in states that vote on Tuesday show that some of the most interesting contests are in the South and Border States where the races on both sides are comeptitive.

To see the top issues driving the races in the Super Tuesday steps, check out CQ Politics' region-by-region summaries for the Northeast, South and the Midwest, with more installments yet to come on the rest of the states.

• Alabama: Rasmussen Reports says its poll conducted Jan. 31 shows Hillary Clinton ahead of Obama by 46 percent to 41 percent, a drop of 10 points in a week’s time. The margin of error is 4 percent. Obama has a 2-to-1 advantage among black voters, although Rasmussen notes Clinton retains a respectable 30% of that vote. Surveys by different pollsters that we reported yesterday had Clinton and Obama tied. Among Republicans, John McCain leads Mike Huckabee 38 percent to 30 percent with Mitt Romney at 20 percent. McCain had been tied with Huckabee before the Arizona senator won the Florida primary. A poll also conducted Jan.31 by Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion Research has the Republican race closer than Rasmussen with McCain leading Huckabee by only 37 percent to 35 percent with a margin of error of 4 percent. The Insider Advantage results for the Democratic race were pretty similar to the Rasmussen poll.
• Tennessee: Clinton leads Obama 49 percent to 35 percent, according to a Rasmussen poll conducted Jan. 30. Clinton runs ahead of Obama 61 percent to 23 percent among white voters, while Obama leads 71 percent to 12 percent among African-American voters. A WSMV-TV poll conducted Jan.28-29 has Clinton ahead 46 percent to 28 percent., with a 5 point margin of error. On key issues, the economy ranks first here among Democrats at 42 percent, but unlike many other states, voters here list health care as the second most important instead of Iraq. On the GOP side, this looks to be one of the most competitive states on Super Tuesday. McCain leads with 32 percent, to 29 percent for Romney and 23 percent for Huckabee. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Rasmussen says that, as in many states, McCain leads among voters who regard the economy or Iraq as the top issue in the campaign, while Romney leads among those who are most concerned about immigration. The WSMV poll shows the Republican race to be just as competitive as the Rasmussen poll. McCain, Romney and Huckabee seem to have pretty evenly divided the former supporters of former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson.
• Missouri: Obama is closing the gap on Clinton here, says a Rasmussen survey conducted Jan. 31. Clinton leads 47 percent to 39 percent, but that contrasts to her 43 percent to 24 percent lead before Obama won South Carolina. The St. Louis Post Dispatch and the New York Times had good pieces in the last couple of days on this race. The Super Tuesday contest is also close on the Republican side. McCain leads at 32 percent with Huckabee close behind at 29 percent and Romney at 28 percent, with the margin of error being 4 percent. The Rasmussen results on both races are consistent with other polls we reported yesterday.
• Illinois: It’s a given that Obama would have better than a 2-to-1 edge over Clinton as the home state favorite. On the Republican side, a Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV poll has McCain ahead by about the same margin, with support of 43 percent of likely GOP primary voters to Romney’s 20 percent and Huckabee’s 15 percent. A big factor in McCain’s lead is that he has made significant inroads among conservative voters since his victories in earlier primaries.

SurveyUSA and Rasmussen Reports both put out a pile of polls Friday on states that vote on Super Tuesday.

Storylines?

John McCain leads Mitt Romney in all the states in this round-up, except in Romney's home state of Massachusetts. Hillary Clinton is leading Barack Obama in the Northeast, but he is stronger in the South. McCain gets a big boost from voters who describe themselves as moderate. The ethnic divide among Democrats is sharp. With a few exceptions, Clinton runs significantly better among white and Hispanic voters, and Obama runs better among black voters. (For an interesting analysis of the Hispanic-black divide, check out this piece by veteran political writer Richard Reeves. And also, a New York Times piece about Clinton's education on race.).

Election Central over at the Talking Points Memo blog says its look at all the Feb. 5 polls show what the national polls do -- that on the Democratic side, Clinton is leading but the race is inexorably tightening up. On the Republican side, McCain looks poised to sew things up. See Election Central's rundowns of the Democratic and Republican poll standings.

Also, check out the regional wraps CQ Politics has been doing on key issues in Super Tuesday states. We've posted two so far: the Northeast and the Midwest.

• New York: SurveyUSA has Clinton leading Obama 54 percent to 38 percent. Perhaps because of her homestate status, New York seems to be one of the few places where Obama is not way out in front with younger voters. He beats Clinton 50 percent to 46 percent in this group, with a 3.2 percent margin of error. The ethnic divide is strong here: Clinton leads among white voters by 15 points, Obama leads among black voters by 25 points, and Clinton bests Obama among Hispanic voters by 45 points. In the Republican race, McCain is beating Romney by more than two-to-one with Huckabee in single digits.
• New Jersey: Clinton leads Obama 51 percent to 39 percent. Looking at the demographics, Clinton leads here among the 18-34 voter group by 49 percent to 42 percent (the margin of error is 3.9 percent). A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Jan. 30 shows Clinton ahead of Obama by a similar margin, but notes that her lead has dropped since its last survey. As in New York, she has a big lead among white voters in the SurveyUSA results, Obama has a big lead among black voters, but in this state, Clinton’s lead among Hispanic voters is smaller, at 47 percent to 36 percent. Among Republicans, McCain has a big 48 percent to 29 percent lead over Romney with Huckabee at 9 percent. His advantage over Romney among moderate voters is 53 percent to 14 percent. The Rasmussen Reports poll has McCain leading Romney 43 percent to 29 percent, but notes that this represents a gain in the standings for him.
• Massachusetts: No surprise here. Rasmussen Reports says Romney leads in his home state by a 55 percent to 23 percent margin over McCain.
• Connecticut: This poll differs from two other recent polls – an American Research Group poll that had Clinton over Obama by 47 percent to 38 percent, and a Rasmussen Reports poll that had them tied. SurveyUSA says Obama has a slim lead of 48 percent to 44 percent over Clinton, with a 3.9 percent margin of error. Obama trounces Clinton by 26 points among voters 18-to-34, and by 13 percent among voters 35-to-49. Unlike many other states, he is running even with Clinton among whites, but like other states, he leads by a large margin among black voters (75 percent to 21 percent) while Clinton leads among Hispanics 73 percent to 21 percent. Among Republicans, McCain leads Romney 53 percent to 31 percent with Huckabee at 6 percent. Again, moderate voters give McCain a big boost.
• Illinois:Rasmussen Reports has Obama ahead of Clinton in his home state by 60 percent to 24 percent in a survey conducted Jan. 29 before John Edwards dropped out.
• Missouri: In a poll conducted Jan. 30-31, SurveyUSA said Clinton led Obama 48 percent to 44 percent, with a margin of error of 3.9 percent. Obama was way ahead among voters 18-34 (61 percent to 31 percent) and among black voters (76 percent to 17 percent). Among Hispanic voters, where Clinton has a stronger hold, Obama out-polled her 57 percent to 41 percent. Clinton led among white voters 54 percent to 38 percent. (Check out a story from the St. Louis Post Dispatch about the fight for the black vote here). The Republican race is competitive with McCain leading at 34 percent with Romney at 30 percent and Huckabee at 28 percent. The three run fairly evenly among conservatives, but McCain has a clear lead among self-described moderates. The margin of error is 4.5 percent.
• Alabama: Clinton is tied with Obama at 47 percent. Obama has a 17 point lead among 18-34 year olds and almost a 50 point lead among black voters, according to SurveyUSA. But unlike Missouri, Clinton retains a big edge among Hispanic voters, 65 percent to 29 percent. In the GOP race, McCain leads Huckabee 40 percent to 31 percent with a 4 point margin of error. Romney is third at 20 percent. Huckabee and McCain are about even among conservative voters and voters who say they attend church regularly. But McCain is way ahead among moderates. An Alabama State University poll released yesterday had Clinton losing her lead in the state with Obama now ahead by about 7 points. This poll included John Edwards. This poll showed a tighter race between McCain and Huckabee than SurveyUSA.

Read the full Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll

A Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll conducted Jan. 30-31 shows a bigger lead for Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama than a Gallup tracking poll released earlier today, but one that has narrowed nevertheless. Clinton has the support of 47 percent of Democrats to 37 percent for Obama, but that’s down from the 29 point lead she enjoyed in December. Democratic voters believe Clinton has the best chance of beating a Republican in the general election by 49 percent to 37 percent. However, voters who describe themselves as Independents – who could be a key voting bloc in the general election – believe Obama is more electable than Clinton by a 48 percent to 28 percent margin.

The poll also underlined the dramatic turnaround for John McCain, who leads Mitt Romney 48 percent to 20 percent, with Mike Huckabee almost tied for second at 19 percent. Last month, Rudy Giuliani was sitting narrowly atop the field at 20 percent, with McCain and Huckabee tied for second at 19 percent and Romney at 11 percent. McCain had polled as low as 7 percent last August when his campaign seemed to be imploding. Republican voters overwhelmingly say McCain is the most electable Republican in November, by a whopping 66 percent to 16 percent margin over Romney. Only 5 percent of Republicans think Huckabee would be the most electable.

In hypothetical general election matchups, Clinton and Obama run even with McCain among all voters (Democrats, Republicans and Independents) but both easily best Romney.

On the now famous “who do you think is best prepared to be President on Day One?” question, Clinton can claim some vindication. Democrats choose her over Obama 59 percent to 24 percent, although among all voters in a general election, she leads McCain by only 34 percent to 31 percent.

As for important issues, the economy and jobs rank first among 30 percent of all voters, followed by Iraq at 23 percent. However, among Democrats alone, Iraq tops the economy 36 percent to 32 percent.

One interesting twist: when all voters were asked which of the four top contenders Clinton, Obama, McCain and Romney – was more likely to do something unethical in the campaign in order to win, 44 percent named Clinton, more than 30 points higher than any of the others.

Read the full Gallup poll

Hillary Clinton’s national lead over Barack Obama has been whittled to its smallest margin so far this year. She garners 44 percent of the Democratic vote to Obama’s 41 percent, a difference equal to the poll’s margin of error. The survey was conducted Jan. 29-31, so still included John Edwards in part of the survey. He had 4 percent. Gallup says the data suggests Obama may have gained slightly more than Clinton from his withdrawal.

On the GOP side, John McCain maintains a 39 percent to 24 percent lead over Mitt Romney with Mike Huckabee at 17 percent. As expected, McCain was the primary beneficiary of Rudy Giuliani’s withdrawal.

American Research Group has polls out today for Connecticut and Illinois. All polls have a 4 percent margin of error.

• Connecticut: In a Jan. 30-31 sample, Clinton leads Obama 48 percent to 37 percent, a much different result than a Jan. 28 Rasmussen Reports poll that had them tied. McCain leads Romney 43 percent to 25 percent with Huckabee at 12 percent (less than undecided who numbered 16 percent).
• Illinois:Obama leads Clinton in his home state by 51 percent to 40 percent. Among Republicans, McCain leads Romney 48 percent to 34 percent, with Huckabee at just 3 percent.

Read the TPM Election Central story

TPM Election Central has put together an excellent chart of the latest polls in the 22 Super Tuesday states. The headline is that on the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is ahead in the bulk of states but the race is tightening.

Some other polls just out:

New Jersey: In a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted the night after Rudy Giuliani’s withdrawal, John McCain was leading Mitt Romney 43 percent to 29 percent with Mike Huckabee way back at 7 percent. McCain attracted 62 percent of the moderate vote and split the conservatives with Romney. On the Democratic side, Clinton leads Obama 49 percent to 37 percent, down from her 18 point margin two weeks ago. As most polls are showing, the economy is regarded as the top issue with Iraq a double-digit second. The margin of error is 4 percent.

Massachusetts: A SurveyUSA/WBZ poll has Romney ahead in his homestate by a 57 percent to 34 percent margin over McCain. On the Democratic side, Clinton leads Obama 57 percent to 33 percent.