Another poll is out this afternoon on the race in Ohio and it shows a statistically-even contest with Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama 47 percent to 45 percent, within the survey's 3 point margin of error. This Rasmussen Reports poll is similar in the results to polls by American Research Group and Zogby which both had Clinton leading Obama within the margin of error or close to it. But it differs from a Fox poll earlier today that gave Clinton a 46 percent to 38 percent lead, with a 4 point margin of error. Rasmussen says "while Clinton’s support has remained stable, Barack Obama has been steadily inching up in the poll," but puts the race in the "too close to call" category. The Rasmussen poll was conducted Feb. 25. Fox and Zogby were conducted Feb. 26-28, and ARG Feb. 27-28.
February 2008 Archives
Almost half of Republicans say that Mike Huckabee should continue his campaign despite John McCain's seemingly insurmountable lead, according to Gallup. The Feb. 21-24 survey found 49 percent said he should continue and 46 percent said he should drop out. Predictably, conservatives want Huckabee to keep running by a 54 percent to 42 percent margin compared to moderates who say 57 percent to 38 percent that he should withdraw.
Polls in Texas and Ohio by Fox News/Opinion Dynamics show a closer race in Texas than two earlier polls today that had Barack Obama ahead beyond the margins of erro. And Fox reported a bigger lead in Ohio for Hillary Clinton than those polls reported.
In Texas, Obama led Clinton 48 percent to 45 percent, within the 4 point margin of error. The poll was conducted Feb. 26-28. Seventeen percent of Clinton supporters said they could change their mind by Tuesday, while 21 percent of Obama supporters said that. Democratic voters listed, in this order of importance, the issues of most concern to them: the economy (32 percent), Iraq 25 percent) and health care (23 percent). Clinton leads among women 50 percent to 43 percent with the flip side being that Obama leads among men 52 percent to 39 percent. As other polls have shown, Obama has a big lead among voters under 45. The two run even among whites, Obama leads 87 percent to 9 percent among black voters, and Clinton leads 67 percent to 29 percent among Hispanic voters.
In Ohio, Clinton has a 46 percent to 38 percent lead, with a 4 point margin of error. Fourteen percent of voters answered "don't know." Ohio Democrats seem to have their minds made up about sticking with their choices a little more than their counterparts in Texas. The economy was more heavily on the minds of voters in economically-struggling Ohio, cited by 47 percent of them as the top issue. Health care was next at 22 percent and Iraq third at 19 percent. Another difference between Ohio and Texas is that Obama does not enjoy a big edge here with voters under 45, something corroborated by one of the other polls today. Clinton leads among white voters 50 percent to 34 percent, while Obama has a 72 percent to 9 percent margin among black voters. (American Research Group had white voters as 82 percent of the sample and black voters at 16 percent).
Barack Obama picked up a point over Hillary Clinton in Gallup's daily tracking poll and now leads her 49 percent to 42 percent nationally, the third straight day he has had a lead beyond the 3 point margin of error. The poll was conducted Feb. 26-28. John McCain Leads Mike Huckabee 60 percent to 26 percent.
Polls today offer a split decision for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton for the big primaries on Tuesday, giving him the lead in Texas and Clinton a small edge in Ohio. That being said, while both races are competitive, the big question that will loom next week if Clinton scores modest popular vote victories is whether they will be enough to stop Obama’s momentum, particularly since he would still likely pick up a good share of delegates.
American Research Group and Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle (a Zogby poll) have Obama leading in Texas by roughly similar margins. ARG puts the numbers at 51 percent to 44 percent in Obama’s favor, with a 4 point margin of error, while Zogby has it 48 percent to 42 percent for Obama with a 4.1 percent margin of error. The ARG poll was conducted Feb. 27-28 and the Zogby survey covered Feb. 26-28. Both polls say one key element of Obama’s strength is among younger voters. Voters under 50 made up 60 percent of ARG’s sample and Obama’s lead among them is 60 percent to 35 percent. Clinton leads among Hispanic voters 55 percent to 41 percent (26 percent of the sample) and Obama leads among black voters 86 percent to 8 percent (22 percent of the sample).
In Ohio, both polls show Clinton clinging to a narrow lead. ARG has her ahead in its Feb. 27-28 survey by 50 percent to 45 percent, with a 4 point margin of error. Zogby’s Feb. 26-28 survey makes it closer: Clinton ahead by 44 percent to 42 percent with a 4.1 percent margin of error and 9 percent “not sure.” ARG has Clinton ahead among white voters 56 percent to 37 percent (82 percent of the sample) while Obama leads among black voters 80 percent to 17 percent (16 percent of the sample). Unlike Texas, Obama’s lead over Clinton among younger voters is only 5 points.
Zogby also had Republican poll results showing John McCain ahead of Mike Huckabee 53 percent to 27 percent in Texas, with home state Rep. Ron Paul at 11 percent. In Ohio, McCain eclipses Huckabee 62 percent to 19 percent.
Read the full USA Today/Gallup poll
The USA Today/Gallup poll says that 57 percent of baseball fans say legendary pitcher Roger Clemens lied to Congress when he denied ever using steroids. Only 31 percent believed him. The fans' call on Clemens pitch to lawmakers was beyond the margin of error, which was 5 percent in this survey conducted Feb. 21-24. However, 62 percent of fans said Clemens still should be elected to the Hall of Fame, so he fared better than Barry Bonds. Fans rejected Bonds as a Hall of Famer by 50 percent to 46 percent.
While the big national polls are commanding most of the attention, we try to bring to you a steady diet of the hypothetical Republican vs. Democrat match-ups on a state-by-state basis. There were new polls for Florida, Tennessee and North Carolina on Thursday, all of them favorable to John McCain against either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton.
So, we’ll give you the thumbnails on those, as well as the state polls we’ve posted from elsewhere in recent weeks.
Read the InsiderAdvantage story
An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Wednesday night has Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama in Texas 47 percent to 43 percent with 10 percent undecided and a 4 point margin of error. InsiderAdvantage's Matt Towery says: "This is a classic sign that a race might be starting to turn. We see the undecided voters increasing and unsettled numbers in key age brackets. Moreover, Clinton has expanded her lead among Hispanic voters, while holding onto white votes. She has dropped slightly among women, but has gained among men...If these trends continue over the coming days, then it might be fair to say the race is slowly drifting Clinton’s way."
Read the full Pew Research Center poll
Barack Obama has built a "broad-based advantage" over Hillary Clinton among Democrats nationally, and also leads John McCain in a general election match-up in a new Pew Research Center survey conducted Feb. 20-24. But the poll also found that Obama faces some important challenges ahead.
Obama leads Clinton among Democratic primary voters by 49 percent to 40 percent and 70 percent of those believe he is most likely to win the party's nomination. The margin of error for this sample is 5.5 percent. Both Obama and Clinton both lead McCain in a general election match-up, although Obama leads by a slightly larger margin, 50 percent to 43 percent compared to Clinton's 50 to 45 percent. The margin of error for all voters is 3 percent.
Obama's lead over Clinton reflects the fact that support for Clinton has "slipped all across the board," Pew says. The only groups in which she now leads are white women voters, voters over the age of 65 and voters with household incomes of less than $30,000 a year.
After four straight daily surveys that showed Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton essentially even in its daily tracking polls, today's Gallup offering has Obama ahead 48 percent to 43 percent for the second straight day. The margin of error is 3 percent and the poll was conducted Feb. 25-27. . John McCain leads Mike Huckabee 61 percent to 24 percent. The daily tracking poll has been showing more modest national leads for Obama than several other major polls, including the one that Gallup does for USA Today.
Barack Obama has moved ahead of Hillary Clinton in Texas, according to a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Feb. 27, but his lead equals the margin of error and there is still evidence of volatilty among Democratic voters. But this and other Texas polls still suggest the trend is in his favor.
Obama leads Clinton 48 percent to 44 percent, with 8 percent undecided. Twelve percent of voters said they could still change their minds. The margin of error is 4 points. Rasmussen notes that Clinton's lead among Hispanic voters, a group she has counted on heavily, is down to 7 points.
Rasmussen also released results of a February 26 survey of voters in Pennsylvania, whose April 22 primary would be the next big test if Clinton is still competitive after Texas and Ohio on Tuesday. Clinton's once-large lead over Obama in Pennsylvania has now shrunk to 46 percent to 42 percent with a 3 point margin of error. This squares with a Quinnipiac University poll published yesterday.
Read the full USA Today/Gallup analysis
Gallup parsed through its polling for Feb. 21-24 to see what kinds of differences there'd be in support among different demographic groups for the Republican and Democratic presidential candidates depending on whether it was Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton running against John McCain.
Here is what Gallup found:
- There would be a bigger gender gap in a McCain-Clinton contest because men are much more likely to support McCain than Clinton. Clinton's 51 percent to 45 percent edge among women over McCain is not much larger than Obama's 49 percent to 45 percent advantage, but McCain leads Clinton among men by 15 points compared to only 5 points for Obama.
- Younger voters are likely to prefer the Democratic candidate but the choice of Obama would widen that gap. Obama outruns McCain among the 18-to-29 age group by 67 percent to 28 percent. Clinton's lead in this group is 55 percent to 40 percent. The second biggest gap would be among voters over 65 in a McCain-Obama match-up, in which McCain is on top 57 percent to 35 percent.
- The biggest difference in the match-ups when it comes to level of education would be in a McCain-Obama race where McCain leads Obama 56 percent to 37 percent among voters who did not attend college.
- On candidate characteristics - experience, the issues, and leadership/vision - Clinton and McCain are about tied on experience and leadership/vision, but he leads her on the issues. Obama and McCain are tied or close on issues and leadership/vision, but he outpolls Obama on the experience measure by 65 percent to 28 percent .
Read the Pew Research Center's weekly News Interest Index
Americans who were aware of the New York Times story last week about John McCain's relationship with a female lobbyist in 2000 say by a 57 percent to 33 percent margin that The Times did the wrong thing in publishing the story. The piece stirred controversy largely because the Times suggested McCain may have had a personal relationship with the lobbyist, but could not document it for certain. The Times' Public Editor also cited that as a flaw in the story. The view of the story strongly depended on the reader's partisan ties: Republicans said the Times was wrong by a 76 percent to 16 percent margin, while Democrats were more closely divided among themselves, with 47 percent saying The Times was wrong and 45 percent supporting the paper. The margin of error for this weekly survey was 3.5 percent.
Rasmussen Reports weighed in on public views of The Times in general. Its poll, conducted Feb.25-26, said 24 percent of American voters have a favorable view of The Times, 44 percent a negative view, and 31 percent are not sure. Liberals like it by a 58 percent to 18 percent margin while conservatives dislike it 69 percent to 9 percent.
Read the full Quinnipiac University poll
Hillary Clinton is already struggling to hold off Barack Obama in next Tuesday’s Ohio and Texas primaries, but if she manages to do that, she looks to face yet another stiff challenge from Obama in the next big state, Pennsylvania on April 22.
Obama has closed to within 6 points of Clinton in Pennsylvania, where she now leads by only 49 percent to 43 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted Feb.21-25. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. In mid-February, she had a 52 percent to 36 percent lead in Quinnipiac’s survey and a 44 percent to 32 percent lead in a poll by Franklin & Marshall. Obama’s surge was powered by younger votes in the 18-to-44 age group who now support him over Clinton by 58 percent to 41 percent, a reversal from Clinton’s 52 percent to 41 percent lead in the previous poll.
John McCain would run a competitive race against either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton in the general election, according to a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll conducted Feb.21-25. McCain leads Obama 44 percent to 42 percent, within the poll’s 3 point margin of error, and bests Clinton 46 percent to 40 percent.
Although a clear majority of those polled said they did not support the war in Iraq, a position with which Obama and Clinton agree, about half of those polled said McCain was better equipped to deal with the issue. McCain fared better than Obama on issues of the economy (42 percent to 34 percent), but voters preferred Clinton to McCain on the issue by 43 percent to 34 percent.
In the Democratic race, Obama leads Clinton nationally 48 percent to 42 percent. The poll squares with some other recent national surveys in putting Obama out front beyond the margin of error, but the New York Times/CBS News poll and USA Today/Gallup poll had Obama’s lead in double-digits.
Public Policy Polling matched up the Democrats with McCain for the general election in the key state of Ohio and found Obama leading McCain 48 percent to 47 percent, within the survey’s 3 point margin of error, and McCain ahead of Clinton 51 percent to 47 percent. The poll was conducted Feb.21-24. The poll found a noticeable gender gap with a majority of women supporting Clinton or Obama, and a majority of men supporting McCain.
To check out other state-by-state match-ups, go here and here.
Two polls released today show Hillary Clinton still maintaining a lead in Ohio beyond the surveys' margins of error, but with Barack Obama slowly but surely cutting into it.
Clinton leads Obama 48 percent to 43 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Feb.25, but that's 3 points less than what Clinton led by last week. The margin of error is 3 percent. That's in line with polls Monday that also showed her lead eroding in Ohio.
The Rasmussen numbers suggest that Obama may have scored points by trying to hang the NAFTA trade agreement around Clinton's neck. Voters said by a 53 percent to 14 percent margin that they believed Obama opposed the treaty, but they are unsure of where Clinton stands. Only 16 percent of Democrats believe NAFTA, which was negotiated under President Bill Clinton, is good for the nation.
SurveyUSA put Clinton ahead of Obama 50 percent to 44 percent with a 3.6 percent margin of error in a poll conducted Feb.23-25. Two weeks ago, Clinton's SurveyUSA lead was 17 points. Clinton and Obama run fairly evenly among the 57 percent of the sample who are between ages 35 and 64, but Obama leads by 17 points among the one-fifth of the sample between 18 and 34, while Clinton has a 2-to-1 lead among the one-fifth about 65. Obama leads among males (42 percent of the sample) 55 percent to 39 percent, while Clinton leads among women voters (58 percent of the sample) by 58 percent to 36 percent.
The economy topped the list of voter concerns at 48 percent, and Clinton led Obama among this group 54 percent to 40 percent. Health care was cited by 20 percent of voters as the most important issue, and Clinton led Obama here 52 percent to 45 percent. Iraq was third at 12 percent, and these voters favored Obama 52 percent to 46 percent. No other issues came close.
Read the full USA Today/Gallup poll
The USA Today/Gallup poll says that 82 percent of Republicans and 70 percent of Democrats now believe that Barack Obama will be the Democratic Party nominee. The poll was conducted Feb.21-24 and has a 2 percent margin of error. When this question was asked in January, 41 percent said they thought Obama would win to Clinton's 36 percent. Obama is also perceived by both Democrats as having the best chance of beating the Republican candidate in November, while 66 percent of Republicans say McCain could beat Clinton, but only 18 percent think he'd win against Obama.
Polls in Texas continue to show a tight race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in a state where, earlier this month, she had been enjoying a double-digit lead. One new poll today had them exactly even, and the other with Obama ahead, but almost exactly by the margin of error.
The two are tied at 48 percent each in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Feb.23-24. The margin of error is 4.7 percent. Democrats listed the top issues in this order: economy and jobs (38 percent), Iraq (25 percent) and health Care (12 percent). Obama and Clinton ran relatively close together among voters who listed the economy and Iraq as top issues, but she far outpaced him among those who cared most about health care. We posted the other poll by SurveyUSA earlier which showed Obama ahead 49 percent to 45 percent with a 3.8 percent margin of error.
The latest entry into the Texas poll sweepstakes is SurveyUSA whose poll conducted Feb.23-25 shows Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton 49 percent to 45 percent, a gain of 4 points for him and a loss of 5 points for Clinton. SurveyUSA says Obama's margin is right at the edge of the 3.8 percent margin of error for the poll. This depiction of a close contest is pretty much in line with other Texas polls. That's a smaller margin than yesterday's double-digit leads for Obama reported by the New York Times/CBS News and USA Today/Gallup polls.
The New York Times/CBS poll released this evening said that Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton nationally among Democrats by 54 percent to 38 percent with a 5 point margin of error. That comes on the heels of a USA Today/Gallup poll showing Obama ahead by a similar 51 percent to 39 percent margin, with a 3 percent margin of error. The Times/CBS poll was conducted Feb.20-24, while the USA Today/Gallup survey was done Feb.21-24. (See an earlier post for an interesting twist on the differences between the USA Today/Gallup finding, and Gallup's own daily tracking poll).
Some headlines from the Times/CBS poll:
- Asked who had the best chance of beating John McCain in November, 59 percent said Obama and 28 percent said Clinton.
- Nearly two thirds of Democrats said they considered Obama to be the likely Democratic nominee.
- Obama has caught up to Clinton in support among women voters while building a large lead among men.
- Among all registered voters, Obama won a general electionm match-up against McCain 50 percent to 38 percent, while Clinton tied McCain at 46 percent each.
Polls in Texas and Ohio, which vote March 4, also contained troubling news for Clinton today. Check them out here.
Read the Associated Press/Ipsos poll
Barack Obama has a 46 percent to 43 percent lead, within a 4.6 percent margin of error, in an Associated Press national poll conducted Feb.22.24. Clinton had a 5 point lead in this poll earlier in February. And then there is the matter of the USA Today/Gallup poll which shows Obama with a big national lead over Clinton and the Gallup daily tracking poll ... which does not. But more about that in a minute.
Looking at key blocs of voters in the campaign, AP says its survey shows "how the bottom is falling out among some supporters of Clinton." Clinton and Obama had evenly divided white men voters and liberals in the last survey, but Obama now leads in those groups by 23 points and 17 points respectively.
On the Republican said, John McCain leads Mike Huckabee 53 percent to 27 percent and has large leads over Huckabee among loyal Republicans, conservatives and Southerners. He runs about even with Huckabee among evangelical Christian voters.
Meanwhile, a USA Today Gallup poll had Obama waaaay out in front of Clinton by 51 percent to 39 percent with a 3 point margin of error. The poll was conducted Feb.21-24. The odd twist is that Gallup's own daily tracking poll today, based on interviewing Feb.22-24, shows Obama narrowly ahead of Clinton 47 percent to 45 percent with a 3 point margin of error.
Frank Newport, editor of the Gallup poll, tried to explain the difference in a posting to the site. He said the daily tracking poll and USA Today/Gallup poll had "some differences in the methodology." But noting that the two polls were fairly consistent on the Republican race, he said, "I think the Democratic differences may well be another indicator of the conflicted nature of the Democratic race this year... there is a lot of volatility out there among Democrats."
Here's a Poll Tracker two-fer: CNN/Opinion Research says its latest Texas poll has Barack Obama in a virtual tie with Hillary Clinton, leading her 50 percent to 46 percent, but with a 3.5 percent margin of error. And USA Today/Gallup says its new general election match-up shows John McCain neck-and-neck with Obama at 48 percent to 47 percent, with a 3 point margin of error. However, Hillary Clinton would also be competitive with McCain. He leads her by 50 percent to 46 percent.
It should be noted that an Associated Press/Ipsos poll conducted Feb.22-24 showed noticeably different results than Gallup in the hypothetical national match-ups. Obama leads McCain 51 percent to 41 percent, and Clinton bests him too, 48 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is 3.1 percent.
The Texas numbers represent a 2 point gain for Obama and 4 point loss since CNN's poll last Monday. On the GOP side, McCain bests Mike Huckabee 56 percent to 31 percent. The poll was conducted Feb.22-24. There were some other polls on Texas (and Ohio) today that you can check out here.
CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said Clintons two-thirds majority about Hispanic voters is being offset in part by the fact that Obama is winning 8 out of 10 black votes plus a respectable share of Hispanic votes.
Both Republicans and Democrats agree that the economy is the most important campaign issue. But health care was number two for Democrats while the runner-up for Republicans was illegal immigration.
On the national poll, Gallup says that although the political landscape this year appears to strongly favor the Democrats, McCain is able to make a strong showing because of his ability to attract support beyond his own party. McCain attracts more support from Democrats than either Democrat gets among Republicans, and he is competitive with Obama among independents. Clinton lags McCain on that score. The poll was conducted Feb.21-24.
Two more pollsters have weighed in on Ohio since our report earlier today and while they all show Hillary Clinton's lead eroding to some extent, the latest, Public Policy Polling shows the race even tighter yet.
And she faces more trouble in Texas where an American Research Group poll survey said she led him by just one point, with a 4 point margin of error.
Clinton leads Obama in Public Policy's Ohio poll by 50 to 46 percent, exactly its 4 point margin of error. The survey was conducted Feb.23-24. Dean Debnam, head of the polling firm, described Clinton as being in "big trouble" and said the race in the state "is trending heavily towards Obama."
Two new polls are showing that Barack Obama appears to be closing the gap on Hillary Clinton in Ohio.
Her lead over Obama is now 47 percent to 39 percent with a 4.3 percent margin of error, according to the "Ohio Poll" conducted by the University of Cincinnati's Institute for Policy Research. The poll was conducted Feb.21-24. The Ohio Poll says three issues dominate the campaign among Democratic voters: the economy and jobs (41 percent), health care/health insurance (25 percent) and Iraq (16 percent).
On the Republican side, McCain leads Mike Huckabee 55 percent to 20 percent. Republicans rank the top issues in the campaign this way: the economy and jobs (30%), homeland security and national defense (16%), the war in Iraq (9%), health care and health insurance (8%), abortion (7%) and taxes (6%).
In the Quinnipiac University poll, , Clinton is leading Obama 51 percent to 40 percent with a 3.6 percent margin of error. The poll was conducted Feb.18-23. That compares to the 55 to 34 percent lead she enjoyed in a Feb. 14 survey.
Read the full USA Todya/Gallup poll
Most voters believe that John McCain and Barack Obama are most likely to unite the country if elected, while Hillary Clinton or Mike Huckabee would divide it. Of the four, Clinton is viewed as most divisive. In Feb. 8-10 USA Tody/Gallup poll, 66 percent of voters said Obama "would do more to unite than country" than divide it, followed by McCain at 59 percent. Fifty-seven percent said Clinton would do more to divide it, and 47 percent said the same of Huckabee. The margin of error is 5 percent.
Breaking the numbers down by parties, 79 percent of Democrats call Obama a uniter compared to 65 percent for Clinton while 67 percent of Independents say the same of Obama, but only 35 percent of them say that of Clinton. Republicans split evenly - 48 percent to percent - on the question, while a minority 41 percent of Democrats describe McCain as someone who would unite the country. A whopping 85 percent of Republicans say Clinton would do more to divide.
Little change today in Gallup's daily tracking poll. For the second straight survey, this one combining results from Feb.20 and Feb.22-23, results for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are within the 3 point margin of error, with Obama at 47 percent and Clinton at 46 percent. John McCain retains his better than 3-to-1 lead over Mike Huckabee at 65 percent to 20 percent. Which brings to mind the headline of a story in today's Chicago Tribune which, referring to Huckabee's appearance on the "Weekend Update" segment of Saturday Night Live, read: "Live, From New York ... And Going Nowhere."
One reason to follow the polls looking at general election match-ups state-by-state is to measure the results against Barack Obama’s claim that he can reshape the political map by turning out hordes of new voters, capturing the lion’s share of independents, and even bite off some Republican votes. There’s a good piece in today’s Washington Post on Obama’s red state prospects. See also a piece in the Austin American-Statesman about Obama attracting some disenchanted Republicans.
Poll Tracker reported Friday on eight state polls conducted by SurveyUSA where Hillary Clinton had statistically significant leads over John McCain in five, Obama in four while McCain led both Democrats convincingly in two. So, add to that list Rasmussen Reports polls today in Wisconsin and New Mexico which show McCain and Obama essentially tied in both places, and Clinton losing in both.
The latest Gallup daily tracking poll, which has been fluctuating between statistically even results for Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama or statistically modest leads for Obama today shows them again in a virtual tie. The survey, based on interviewing conducted Feb.19-20 and Feb.22 has Obama at 47 percent and Clinton at 45 percent with a 3 percent margin of error.
On the Republican side, John McCain's lead over Mike Huckabee has grown to 63 percent to 20 percent. This period includes interviewing that followed the Feb. 21 New York Times report about his relationship with a lobbyist.
Much of the attention to the factor of religion and moral values in politics has been paid to the Republican side of the campaign. But Gallup came up with some polling on the Democrats and found that Hillary Clinton has a big edge over Barack Obama among voters who describe themselves as highly religious. A Feb.15-20 survey found that 57 percent of white, non-Hispanic regular church-goers support Clinton compared to 29 percent for Obama. Gallup said there was less of a relationship between candidate choice and religion among black Democratic viewers who "are both highly religious and highly likely to support Obama."
Sunday's Washington Post has a package of articles in its Outlook section under the heading of "How Would Jesus Vote?" You can link to them here:
Fifty percent of Americans believe economic pressures have become so bad that they will not be able to maintain their standard of living, according to Gallup. That's a higher number than those who felt that way during the 1991-92 recession.
Reporting results from a Jan.30-Feb.2 survey, Gallup said that 86 percent of Americans say they have already been very or somewhat affected by the squeeze of higher gasoline and home-heating costs. About three-quarters of those interviewed said the same about food prices and healthcare costs.
SurveyUSA today released hypothetical general election match-ups for eight states. The only states where John McCain runs strongly against both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in this grouping are Oregon and Alabama. Clinton has leads over McCain that are beyond the margin of error in five of the eight states while Obama has statistically signficant leads in four. All these surveys were conducted Feb.15-17.
Read the Rasmussen Reports polls for Texas and Ohio
Hillary Clinton has a 47 percent to 44 percent within-the-margin-of-error lead over Barack Obama in Texas, and is ahead of him in Ohio by 48 percent to 40 percent, with a 3 point margin of error. The Texas margin of error is 4 points. Both surveys were conducted Feb. 20.
Rasmussen had Clinton ahead of Obama in Texas and Ohio by a double-digit margin a week ago. Today’s findings are similar to those yesterday reported by the Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Clinton leads Obama by 10 points among women in Texas. As in other states, she leads among white and Hispanic voters but trails Obama among black voters.
In Ohio, Clinton enjoys a 20 point lead among women, but she now trails Obama by 10 among men after leading in that group a week ago. Half of the Ohio voters said the economy was the top issue with Iraq coming in at 18 percent.
Read the full Pew Hispanic Center analysis
The Pew Hispanic Center has analyzed exit polls for 15 states that have voted so far and came up with list of toplines about the Hispanic vote in this year's campaign. The report noted what we already know -- that so far, Hispanics have shown a marked preference for Hilly Clinton over Barack Obama, but the key phrase there is "so far," given that polls have been showing inroads Obama has been making into key blocs of Clinton support. The question is: will Hispanics be next?
A Washington Post-ABC News poll, conducted Feb.16-20 and released yesterday, said Hispanics are key to Clinton's chances in the March 4 Texas primary. The poll said Clinton led Obama in this group 59 to 36 percent, about the same as the average of all exit polls in other states, but that her chances depended on how heavy the actual turnout would be.
More Americans are likely to identify themselves as Democrats than at any time since 2000, according to a Gallup poll conducted Feb.11-14. In the survey 40 percent identified themselves as Democrats, 26 percent as Republicans and 34 percent with neither. Most of the "neithers" considered themselves independents. Gallup said the only time this 14 point gap was higher for the Democrats was in 1998, immediately after the Republican-controlled House impeached former President Clinton. The margin then was 41 percent to 20 percent. For the record, Gallup says the Republican high points - when they were at 39 percent -- occurred in May 1991, right after the Persian Gulf War; Dec. 2003, conducted at the time of the capture of Saddam Hussein; and, Sept. 2004, after the Republican presidential convention.
Read the full Washington Post-ABC News story
Serving up more bad news for Hillary Clinton, a Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted Feb.16-20 shows Clinton in a statistical tie with Barack Obama at 48 percent to 47 percent, and leading him in Ohio 50 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error in both states is 4 percent.
The new poll squares with other polls that have bubbled up over the last week, in which the Texas race has been narrowing to a dead heat, while Clinton's once-big advantage in Ohio has dwindled. At the same time, Clinton and Obama are in the same close horse race in national polls released today.
The poll says that the economy and health care vie for the top spot among voter concerns, while health care is the clear cut issue in Texas where, according to a Wall Street Journal column, 25 percent of the people are uninsured, the highest of any state.
Read the KXAN-TV (Austin) poll story
Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are running neck-and-neck in Texas, according to a poll conducted Feb.17-19. The margin of error is 4 percent. Clinton has 46 percent to Obama's 45 percent, with 9 percent undecided. On the Republican side, John McCain easily outdistances Mike Huckabee, 52 percent to 30 percent with home state Rep. Ron Paul at 9 percent. As many other state and national polls are indicating, the economy has shot to the top of the list for voters of both parties, in this case replacing Iraq. This is at least the third poll this week to show the Texas contest as a toss-up on the Democratic side.
Three national polls – Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, the Gallup daily tracking poll, and Diageo/Hotline – show Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in a tie.
The Fox poll, conducted Feb.19-20, has Clinton and Obama at 44 percent each, 8 percent “don’t know,” within a 5 point margin of error. Gallup has Clinton leading Obama 45 percent to 44 percent with a 3 point margin of error. Diageo/Hotline, conducted Feb.14-17, shows Clinton leading Obama 45 percent to 43 percent, well within the 5.1 percent margin of error.
Gallup has bounced up and down over its last nine daily tracking reports, with Clinton and Obama roughly tied early last week, followed by several days of Obama opening up leads of 5 to 7 points, then another virtual tie on Tuesday, and another 5 point Obama lead yesterday that apparently has collapsed again. It will be interesting if any of the pollsters can determine whether a factor in this is the combined attacks by Clinton and John McCain’s on Obama’s experience.
The tie at 44 percent reported by Fox today contrasts to Clinton’s 47 percent to 37 percent lead in its Jan.30-31 poll. Asked if Clinton should pick Obama as her running mate if she wins the nomination, 63 percent of Democrats answered “yes,” but when the question was asked the other way around – should Obama pick Clinton – a lesser 54 percent approved of the idea. Forty-seven percent of Democrats say Obama was most likely to bring about real change to 37 percent for Clinton.
On the Republican side, McCain leads Huckabee 51 percent to 34 percent in the Fox poll, with a 6 point margin of error, but by a much larger 62 percent to 22 percent in the Gallup survey, with a 3 point margin of error. The Diageo/Hotline poll found McCain ahead of Huckabee by 53 percent to 25 percent. All the polls were conducted before the New York Times ran its story last night exploring McCain’s relationship with a female lobbyist in 2000.
About half of Republicans surveyed by Fox said McCain’s positions on the issues were “about right,” while a third said they were not conservative enough. About half also said Huckabee’s positions were about right, but only 13 percent said he was not conservative enough. Fifty-one percent of Republicans said that if McCain wins he should pick Huckabee as his running mate, and 37 percent said he shouldn’t.
See the Full Franklin & Marshall College poll
Hillary Clinton is leading Barack Obama in Pennsylvania 44 percent to 32 percent, but as in Texas and Ohio, this represents a drop in more substantial margins she enjoyed earlier, according to this Feb. 13-18 survey.. In January, the F & M poll, conducted for several Pennsylvania newspapers and television stations, had Clinton leading by 20 points. With the primary still a month away, 20 percent of those surveyed said they didn’t yet know who they would vote for, and 37 percent of those who did choose between the two said they were still thinking about it.
In general election match-ups, McCain and Clinton run head-to-head at 46 percent each, and McCain leads Obama 44 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error for the poll is 3.9 percent.
SurveyUSA says a general election match-up between Clinton and John McCain in her home state of New York shows her leading 52 percent to 41 percent with a 4.4 percent margin of error. The poll was conducted Feb.15-17. On the issues, Clinton bests McCain on the economy, the environment, health care, Iraq and education, while McCain leads her among voters concerned about terrorism, Social Security and immigration. Obama performs similarly against McCain across these issues although one difference is that Obama bests him by a wide margin on Social Security.
But the real note of interest in the match-ups is that Obama would run stronger than Clinton in her own state, besting McCain 57 percent to 36 percent.
Other SurveyUSA state match-ups:
- Wisconsin: McCain leads Clinton 49 percent ot 42 percent, Obama leads McCain 52 percent to 42 percent. Margin of error is 4.3 percent.
- Iowa: McCain leads Clinton 52 percent to 41 percent, Obama leads McCain 51 percent to 41 percent. Margin of error is 4.2 percent.
- Virginia: McCain leads Clinton 48 percent to 45 percent, Obama leads McCain 51 percent to 45 percent. Margin of error is 4.2 percent.
With the economy looming as the major issue on voters minds now, it is interesting to note that in these four states, Clinton and Obama do better with voters on the economy than McCain in New York and Virginia, but less so or not at all in Iowa and Wisconsin.
Two national polls are out today with the same leader on the Democratic side – Barack Obama – but significantly different takes on what the size of his lead is. Rasmussen Reports has polls out on hypothetical general election match-ups in the key states of Ohio and Michigan.
The Gallup daily tracking poll has Barack Obama back to a 5 point lead over Hillary Clinton, following yesterday’s survey which had him ahead only 46 percent to 45 percent with a 3 point margin of error. Prior to that, Obama’s lead had been in the 5 to 7 point range in the previous three surveys. This poll was conducted Feb.17-19, before the results of Wisconsin were known. Not much change on the Republican side where John McCain still holds a big lead over Mike Huckabee.
Obama built a big 52 percent to 38 percent lead over Clinton in a Reuters/Zogby poll conducted Feb.13-16, before Obama scored yet another primary victory with his win in Wisconsin. Other polls have been showing that Obama is making inroads into key voting blocs that had been strong for Clinton, and in this poll, John Zogby notes in particular that Obama is now leading Clinton among the 50-to-64 baby boomers by 57 percent to 29 percent. He is also now tied with Clinton among women voters at 44 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent.
Among Republicans, John McCain leads Mike Huckabee by a comfortable 47 percent to 32 percent but among the 17 percent of the Republican sample that consider themselves “very conservative,” Huckabee leads McCain 51 percent to 29 percent.
In the poll’s general election match-ups, Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 40 percent while McCain bests Clinton 50 percent to 38 percent. The margin of error is 3 percent.
A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Feb.17 has McCain in a statistical tie with Obama, leading him 42 percent to 41 percent with a 4.5 percent margin of error. McCain leads Clinton 46 percent to 43 percent. For Michigan, Rasmussen says Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 39 percent, and that a Clinton-McCain race right now is a tie at 44 percent. Same margin of error and polling date as Ohio.
Read the full NAES Election Survey
The National Annenberg Election Survey, conducted from Jan.14-Feb.5, focused on how aware voters were, at this point in the campaign, of the candidates and their positions. Kathleen Hall Jamieson, director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center, said the point of the survey was to find out how much the public knew about distinctions among the candidates amid all “the talk about the horse race and campaign tactics.” She noted that the public has become more aware of these distinctions on the issues as the campaign has gone on, but the figures indicate there is still “a way to go.”
The number of Americans who disapprove of President Bush's performance on seven major issues has grown, according to a Feb.11-14 Gallup poll. The poll says that overall, 65 percent of Americans disapprove of the President's performance compared to 31 percent who approve. His approval ratings have consistently been below 40 percent since Sept. 2006.
Bush did not score a majority approval rating on any of these issues: terrorism, foreign affairs, Iraq, the economy, energy policy, healthcare policy or immigration. His best rating -47 percent approval - came on the issue of terrorism. His lowest marks were for handling of immigration. The biggest drop in approval was on his handling of the economy, falling from 41 percent last year to 27 percent in this most recent survey.
Gallup added in a separate analysis that its Feb.11-14 survey found that the economy had surpassed the war in Iraq as the Number One issue for voters for the first time since March 2004.
These findings are echoed by an American Research Group poll conducted Feb.16-19 that put the disapproval rating of Bush at 77 percent. The economy is again a big driver of this result with 78 percent of those surveyed (registered voters) say the economy is getting worse and 47 percent believe it is already in recession. Bush naturally does better among Republicans with a 45 percent approval rating, but even here, 50 percent disapprove of his performance.
For background stories on the economy, visit the