Minnesota Public Radio has weighed in on the campaign in that state’s Super Tuesday caucuses, showing John McCain way ahead with 41 percent among Republicans, followed by Mike Huckabee at 22 percent and Mitt Romney at 17 percent. Among Democrats, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama by 40 percent to 33 percent with John Edwards, who had not yet dropped out, at 12 percent. However, this poll may not be a good predictor of the Feb. 5 outcomes because it surveyed voters only on the basis of party affiliation and not whether they were likely to attend the precinct caucuses.

Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion has a Jan. 30 Georgia poll showing McCain at 35 percent with Huckabee and Romney tied at 24 percent. On the Democratic side, Obama leads Clinton 56 percent to 32 percent. (A Rasmussen poll also had Obama ahead here, but by a smaller margin).

In Tennessee, Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion says McCain is leading with 33 percent to Huckabee's 25 percent and Romney's 18 percent. Among Democrats, Clinton leads Obama 59 percent to 26 percent.

Here are some of the other Super Tuesday polls we have reported:

• A Whirlwind Tour Of Eight Super Tuesday States
• New York, Massachusetts And National Match-Ups
• Clinton’s Strengths And Weaknesses in California
• New York And California: Clinton Way Ahead In Both, McCain On Top In New York

Read the latest Gallup poll

John McCain appears to be getting a considerable bounce from his victory in Florida, and the subsequent withdrawal of Rudy Giuliani, according to this poll conducted Jan. 28-30. McCain leads Mitt Romney 37 percent to 22 percent with Mike Huckabee at 17 percent. The interviews on the last day of the survey after Giuliani exited the race showed a significant increase in support for McCain.

On the Democratic side, Barack Obama keeps closing in on Hillary Clinton, narrowing her lead to 4 points. Clinton has 43 percent to Obama's 39 percent. Her lead over Obama is the narrowest since early January. John Edwards still had 8 percent in the poll, but the last night of interviewing did not produce any clear signal about which way his supporters might jump.

The margin of error is 3 percent.

Read the Associated Press-Yahoo poll story

Americans are in a sour mood about the state of the country and have great expectations about what a President can do about it, according to this survey conducted Jan. 18-28. Three-quarters believe a President can have some influence on reducing health care costs while 69 percent feel the same way about his or her's ability to deal with gasoline prices. The poll also found (surprise) that supporters of Hillary Clinton value experience over change by 78 percent to 21 percent while Barack Obama backers favor change over experience by 72 percent to 28 percent.

Read the full Gallup analysis

Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton by 60 percent to 29 percent among black Democratic voters surveyed Jan. 23-29. However, Clinton led Obama by 57 percent to 29 percent. The margin of error was 6 percent. Gallup said, "The vote of black Democrats promises to be significant in many states -- and congressional districts within states -- in next Tuesday's crucial Super Tuesday primaries." By the same token, the Hispanic vote could mean a big boost for Clinton in states like California, New York, New Mexico and New Jersey.

Rasmussen Reports has done quite a bit of polling on the Super Tuesday states, although some of the surveys are a bit dated. But we thought it might be useful to wrap some of them up for you.

Three common threads that jump out in the Democratic race are these: Hillary Clinton leads big among Hispanics, Barack Obama among blacks, and voters cite the economy as the top issue, usually by a double-digit margin over the number two issue, Iraq. It's worth checking out Gallup's analysis on race and ethnicity.

So here we go with a mix of Rasmussen’s Republican and Democratic Results:

• California:In a poll conducted after the Jan. 29 Florida vote but before John Edwards dropped out, Clinton had a small 3 point lead over Obama, within the 4 point margin of error. She held a 27 point lead among Hispanics, underlining a major challenge Obama has in this race in California and other states. The economy was cited as the number one issue by 46 percent of voters, while 29 percent named Iraq. This contrasted with a Jan. 23-26 survey by Gallup showing Clinton with a big lead.
• New York: A Jan. 16-17 poll had Clinton way ahead in her home state by 51 percent to 30 percent. She led Obama among all groups except blacks. Gallup also had Clinton leading bigtime in New York.
• New Jersey: Clinton led Obama 45 percent to 27 percent, but trailed him among blacks by 59 percent to 39 percent in a jan. 15 poll.
• Illinois: In a poll conducted just before the Florida primary results, John McCain led Mitt Romney 34 percent to 26 percent, with a 4 point margin of error. Mike Huckabee polled 16 percent. Only 54 percent of voters said they were sure they’d stick with their choice.
• Connecticut:In a poll conducted Jan. 28, just after the South Carolina outcome, Clinton and Obama were locked in a tie, at 40 percent each. On the GOP side, McCain led Romney by a big 42 percent to 26 percent margin, even though Romney was a neighboring state governor. McCain led Romney across all demographic groups.
• Florida:Clinton, who won kind of a neither-here-nor there contest in the actual primary because of the state’s dispute with the Democratic National Committee, led Obama 47 percent to 25 percent in a Jan. 27 poll.
• Missouri:In a Jan. 24 poll, Clinton led Obama 43 percent to 24 percent with a 4 percent margin of error.
• Georgia:Obama led Clinton 41 percent to 35 percent in a Jan. 22 poll. Obama led among blacks by 59 percent to 28 percent, while Clinton led among whites by 44 percent to 25 percent.
• Alabama: Clinton led Obama 43 percent to 28 percent in a Jan. 23 poll. Margin of error was 4 points.

In a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Jan. 29, Hillary Clinton led Barack Obama in her home state of New York by 45 percent to 33 percent, which is a narrowing of the gap for Obama. The poll was conducted before Rudy Giuliani’s decision to drop out, so on the GOP side, John McCain had been leading Giuliani 34 percent to 20 percent with Mitt Romney at 19 percent and Mike Huckabee at 10 percent. The margins of error were 3.4 percent for the Democrats and 2.9 percent for the Republicans. On issues, the economy and jobs ranked 46 percent and Iraq 30 percent, with all others in single digits.

In Massachusetts, another Super Tuesday state, a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted on the night that Sen. Edward Kennedy endorsed Barack Obama said that Clinton was leading Obama 43 percent to 37 percent. Like the New York poll, the economy was cited by voters as their top issue of concern, with Iraq coming in second. The margin of error was 3 percent.

In a hypothetical national match-up, Rasmussen says McCain leads Clinton 48 percent to 40 percent, and leads Obama 47 percent to 41 percent. The margin of error is 3 percent.

Read the full Gallup poll

Just over a week ago, Hillary Clinton was leading Barack Obama by 20 points, but in an updated Jan. 27-29 survey by Gallup, Obama has closed the gap to 6 points, with Clinton ahead 42 percent to 36 percent. One difference in this poll compared to the Gallup we reported earlier is that it includes two full days instead of one in interviewing that took place after the endorsement of Sen. Edward Kennedy. Another new factor to follow in the next poll is the effect of John Edwards decision to drop out of the race. Edwards was polling at 12 percent.

Among Republicans, John McCain leads Mitt Romney 32 percent to 21 percent, and it remains to be seen to whom supporters of Rudy Giuliani, at 11 percent, will turn when he drops out and endorses McCain as expected. Mike Huckabee registered 18 percent. McCain has to hope his victory starts the campaign cash flowing, because his latest report to the Federal Elections Commission showed that he closed out 2007 with only $2.9 million cash-on-hand.

The margin of error is 3 percent.

Read the full Gallup analysis

On Monday, Gallup reported that Hillary Clinton was significantly ahead in the two largest Super Tuesday states, New York and California. Today, Gallup’s analysts took a closer look at the findings of that Jan. 23-26 survey to assess Clinton’s strengths and weaknesses on the issues.

The toplines:

• Health Care: In both states, Clinton is far out front of Obama - by large double-digit margins - among voters who said health care was an important issue to them.
• Economy: Clinton outruns Obama by 57 percent to 29 percent in New York among voters who singled out the economy, but this margin is probably bolstered by her home-state advantage. In California, she leads Obama by only 45 percent to 40 percent.
• Iraq: This issue provides the closest margins between the two. In New York, voters concerned about Iraq favor Clinton 47 percent to 38 percent, but in California, her margin is only 41 percent to 39 percent over Obama, well within the 4 point margin of error.

Read the full Gallup poll

Gallup’s daily report on the presidential race show Barack Obama continuing to close the gap nationally with Hillary Clinton and John McCain still comfortably atop the Republicans, with Mitt Romney’s recent advances having stalled out, at least for now. The poll was conducted Jan. 26-28. It included part of the period after Sen. Edward Kennedy’s endorsement of Obama and was conducted before McCain’s victory last night in Florida. Gallup said its interviewing yesterday initially indicated that the Kennedy endorsement did not have a “dramatic effect,” but it will be interesting to see if that changes in later polls.

McCain leads Romney 31 percent to 19 percent with Huckabee at 17 percent and Rudy Giuliani at 13 percent. Exit polls in Florida yesterday showed that Giuliani tended to take moderate voters from McCain while Huckabee took conservatives from Romney, so that may be a clue to what will happen if Giuliani drops out after his poor showing in yesterday’s primary.

On the Democratic side, Clinton leads Obama 43 percent to 34 percent, with John Edwards - who is expected to drop out today – at 14 percent. Clinton’s lead is down 17 points since Jan. 24. Again, if past history provides any clue, polling during the campaign in some states indicated that Obama was the second choice of many Edwards supporters.

The margin of error was 3 percent.

... thanks to MSNBC.com and CNN.com...

• Most Important Issue: MSNBC's exit poll report said nearly half of Republican voters cited the economy as the most important issue, with others far behind, and John McCain and Mitt Romney ran even among these voters.
• Moderates vs. Conservatives: McCain won 4 in 10 moderates, Romney 4 in 10 conservatives, but what was different this time in Florida compared to McCain-George Bush in 2000 was that Rudy Giuliani took moderate votes from McCain and Mike Huckabee took conservative votes from Romney.
• Immigration: Only one in five Republican voters cited illegal immigration as the biggest issue.
• Race: On the Democratic side, Barack Obama took more than three-fourths of the black vote and one-fourth of the white vote, while Clinton won among whites but got only small share of the black vote.

The exit polls as analyzed by CNN also said the economy was a key issue in the primary and that McCain came out on top of Romney, despite Romney's efforts to sell himself as a succesful businessman. CNN also said that early exit polls showed that moderates who had been backing Giuliani had started to defect to McCain. But McCain faces a challenge on the other side of the spectrum, which is nailing down conservative Republicans.

Read the full Gallup analysis

The Gallup folks have down some further analysis of their poll released yesterday showing John McCain with a big lead among Republicans in New York, and a smaller one in California. They found that in both states, Republicans rate a candidate's ability to get things done in Washington as the most important characteristic they are looking for in a president and that McCain tops the rest of the GOP field on this score. McCain’s lead over his top challengers on this measure is more than 20 points in each state. His weakest showing against Rudy Giuliani in New York and Mitt Romney in California is on having new ideas to help solve the country’s problems.

On issues, the economy is now at the top of the list in both states.

The poll was conducted Jan. 23-26 and has a margin of error of 4 percent.

A CNN/Opinion Research poll , conducted Jan. 23-27, shows John McCain leading Mitt Romney 39 percent to 26 percent in California, a 19 point jump from McCain compared to two weeks ago. Romney also gained, rising 10 points. Rudy Giuliani has 13 percent and Mike Huckabee 11 percent. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. But in a USA Today/Gallup poll that we reported earlier, the McCain-Romney race was closer. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama by 49 percent to 32 percent, with 11 percent for John Edwards. But more than 80 percent of the Democratic voters were interviewed before the results were known of the South Carolina primary, and all of them before the Ted Kennedy endorsement of Obama.

In Florida which votes Tuesday, an American Research Group poll shows the same thing as five other polls on Monday - a tight race. Romney leads McCain 34 percent to 32 percent with a 4 point margin of error. Giuliani is at 12 percent and Huckabee at 11 percent.

And a SurveyUSA poll says "it is impossible to tell" who will win in Florida on Tuesday.

Read the full Gallup analysis

Gallup’s latest “where the Election stands” national poll, conducted Jan. 25-27, shows Barack Obama gaining slowly on Hillary Clinton while, on the GOP side, Mitt Romney is narrowing the gap with John McCain.

Clinton leads Obama 44 percent to 33 percent, down from a 20 point lead she held in Gallup’s Jan. 18-20 survey. Pollsters will certainly be watching to see if today’s ringing endorsement of Obama by Massachusetts Sen. Edward Kennedy provides an important boost as the candidates head into Super Tuesday on Feb. 5. Support for John Edwards is at 14 percent.

On the Republican side, John McCain leads Mitt Romney 29 percent to 21 percent, down from a recent high of 14 percent. Mike Huckabee has 18 percent and Rudy Giuliani 13 percent.

John McCain and Mitt Romney are locked in a tight battle in Florida on the eve of its primary, according to five polls published today. Several polls noted that McCain’s effort had been bolstered by the endorsement of popular Florida Gov. Charlie Crist.

• The Quinnipiac University poll: McCain has 32 percent to Romney’s 31 percent in a survey conducted Jan. 24-27. Margin of error is 4.1 percent. Rudy Giuliani has 14 percent and Mike Huckabee 13 percent. In Quinnipiac’s Jan. 14 survey, all four candidates were in range of each other. Quinnipiac pollster Peter brown says, “With 24 hours to go, the race is up in the air.” Among Democrats, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 50 percent to 30 percent with John Edwards at 12 percent.
• Zogby Poll: McCain has 33 percent to Romney’s 30 percent, with a margin of error of 3.4 percent. Giuliani leads Huckabee in the second-tier, 14 percent to 11 percent. The poll was conducted Jan. 25-27. Pollster John Zogby says, “The key demographic to watch is the mainline conservative voter, and McCain’s good day Sunday was the result of his improvement among that group. He retains strong support from moderates while Romney enjoys strong support among very conservative Republicans.”
• Rasmussen Reports: McCain and Romney are tied at 31 percent. Helped by the Crist endorsement, McCain picked up four percentage points over the previous day. Giuliani is at 16 percent and Huckabee at 11 percent. The survey suggests that “the election may be decided by the number of Giuliani and Huckabee supporters who decide to abandon their first choice in hopes of influencing the outcome.” The survey was conducted January 7 and has a margin of error of 4 percent.
• Suffolk University poll: McCain leads Romney 30 percent to 27 percent. Giuliani has 13 percent and Huckabee 11 percent. Forty-four percent of voters cited the economy as the most important issue facing the country followed by terrorism (20 percent), illegal immigration (18 percent), and the war in Iraq (13 percent). The poll was conducted Jan. 25-27 and has a 4.9 percent margin of error.
• Strategic Vision poll: McCain is at 27 percent, Romney 26 percent, Giuliani 17 percent, and Huckabee 15 percent in this Jan. 25-27 survey. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. The poll found a different order of importance of issues than Suffolk University, with Iraq at 19 percent, the economy at 18 percent, taxes at 15 percent, the war on terror and health care at 11 percent, and education at 10 percent.

Read the full USA Today/Gallup polls for California and New York

The USA Today/Gallup surveys, conducted Jan 23-26 in delegate-rich California and New York show Hillary Clinton significantly ahead of Barack Obama in both states while, on the GOP side, John McCain has moved into a clear lead over former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani in his home state, but is in a much closer contest with Mitt Romney in California.

In both states, Gallup divided its findings into “high-turnout” and “low-turnout” scenarios, noting especially that one in five registered Republicans in California said they had already voted by absentee ballot.

McCain leads Romney in California by 35 percent to 27 percent in a high-turnout election (4 percent margin of error), and 36 percent to 31 percent in a low-turnout vote (5 percent margin of error). Mike Huckabee and Giuliani are far behind in both variations, running about neck-and-neck with each other.

Among Democrats, Clinton leads Obama 47 percent to 35 percent in a high-turnout vote, and by a larger 51 percent to 33 percent in a low-turnout vote. John Edwards is at 10 percent in both scenarios. The margins of error are the same as for the Republicans.

In New York, McCain is running substantially ahead of Giuliani in both scenarios – 42 percent to 21 percent for high-turnout and 40 percent to 21 percent for low-turnout. Romney polls in the mid-teens. An earlier Marist/WNBC poll also showed McCain ahead.

On the Democratic side, Clinton leads Obama 56 percent to 28 percent in both scenarios with Edwards just barely in double-digits. Again the margins of error were 4 percent for high-turnout and 5 percent for low-turnout.

It should be noted that both polls were concluded before the results of the South Carolina Democratic primary. Also, Gallup found the GOP race in California to be fluid, with one-third of registered Republicans saying they could change their minds before primary day.

With the the primary just a day and a half away, today’s Rasmussen poll shows Romney edging ahead in Florida, with 33 percent of likely Republican voters, John McCain with 27 percent, Rudy Giuliani a “distant” third with 18 percent and Mike Huckabee with 12 percent. Rasmussen points out that the poll was done before Florida Governor Charlie Crist endorsed McCain Saturday.

Nationally, a Gallup poll released today finds McCain faring better, with 31 percent support from Republican voters. But Gallup also says Romney has edged ahead of Huckabee, with 21 percent compared to Huckabee’s 18 percent. Gallup adds: “Romney appears to have gained the most from Fred Thompson's campaign exit -- he is up five percentage points since Jan. 20.”

The same poll shows Hillary Rodham Clinton ahead of Barack Obama nationally with 45 percent compared to Obama’s 32 percent and Edwards’ 13 percent. The Gallup poll has a margin of error of +/- 3 percent and was conducted Jan. 24-26, before the South Carolina primary results were announced.

Speaking of South Carolina, even before Saturday evening was over, Public Policy Polling was bragging that it came closest of all the pollsters in estimating the strength of Barack Obama in South Carolina. It cited a Jan. 25 poll showing Obama with 44 percent, 20 points ahead of Hillary Clinton. He finished with 55 percent of the vote, a number which no pollsters came close to predicting, as other polls this week had Obama's lead shrinking to 13-16 points.

SurveyUSA has a "report card" chart, comparing various pollsters and adds: "To put the size of Barack Obama’s South Carolina win into perspective: (The) Average Pollster Error in South Carolina’s Democratic Primary was 16.6 points. (The) Average Pollster Error in New Hampshire Democratic Primary was 9.6 points."

Read the full exit poll at MSNBC

Exit polls in South Carolina tell this story about how Barack Obama put together his big victory over Hillary Clinton.

• Obama’s margin among black voters was 78 percent to Clinton’s 19 percent.
• The black vote accounted for 55 percent of the Democratic turnout. The Washington Post analysis of the exit poll noted that this could be significant in several states that are part of the Feb. 5 mega-primary such as Georgia, Tennessee, Delaware, Missouri, Alabama, Illinois and New Jersey.
• The top choice among white voters was actually John Edwards, at 40 percent, to 36 percent for Clinton and 24 percent for Obama.
• Obama beat Clinton and Edwards by a margin of roughly 2-to-1 in one category of white voters, those under the age of 29. However, they accounted for only 5 percent of the turnout.
• Obama also ran better than Clinton among more highly-educated voters.
• More than half of the voters cited the ability to bring about change as their top priority and, among those, Obama bested Clinton 75 percent to 15 percent.
• One quarter of the voters said they made their choice based on their belief about which candidate “cares about people like me,” and Edwards won in this category with 43 percent to Obama’s 40 percent and Clinton’s 17 percent.
• Clinton ran away with the 14 percent of voters who based their choice on experience, registering 84 percent to Edwards’ 9 percent and Obama’s 7 percent.

Gallup has been polling voters daily and its Jan. 23-25 survey has John McCain atop the Republican field nationally, at 30 percent, with Mitt Romney moving up in the ranks to draw even with Mike Huckabee at 20 percent. Rudy Giuliani is at 13 percent and Ron Paul at 5 percent.

On the Democratic side, where things could change depending on today's South Carolina outcome, Hillary Clinton has a 47 percent to 32 percent lead nationally over Barack Obama with John Edwards at 11 percent. Nationally, Obama leads Clinton by about 2-to-1 among blacks, and Clinton leads Obama by 20 points among whites.

On the economy, Gallup says 22 percent of Americans rate current economic conditions as "excellent" or "good," while 46 percent call them "only fair," and 3 percent "poor."

According to an American Research Group poll released today, John McCain (31 percent) and Mitt Romney (26 percent) are distancing themselves from Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani in Florida. Huckabee is still in third, but he has dropped two percentage points from earlier this week and sits at 15 percent. Giuliani is still the fourth-place candidate and has also lost support since Tuesday's poll. Giuliani now only has 14 percent in the state where he has focused most of his campaigning so far.

The RNC cut half of Florida's delegates, leaving the state party with 57, because the chosen primary date violates RNC rules.

The poll, conducted Jan. 23-24 from 600 likely Republican primary voters, has a margin of error of ± 4 percentage points.

Gallup released tracking data from national daily polls conducted Jan. 22-24 that show John McCain is bolstering his front-runner status among Republicans. He has an 11 percent lead over Mike Huckabee, his closest challenger. Hillary Rodham Clinton has an even more substantial lead in the Democratic race. Her current 16 percentage point lead over Barack Obama (31 percent) is representative of her recent strength in national polling. And, her 47 percent is nearly 4 times the support trailing Democrat John Edwards (12 percent) can muster.

Among Democrats, polling results since Jan. 6, show a sizable 10 point pick-up by Clinton and 3- and 5-point losses by Obama and Edwards, respectively. In the last several weeks as tracked by Gallup, there has been no change in the order of Democratic candidates, although the outcome of Saturday's South Carolina Democratic primary could influence national polling results.

Among likely Republican and Republican-leaning voters, McCain's support has skyrocketed from 17 percent to 31 percent since Jan. 6. Since winning the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries, McCain has solidified his lead, hitting a peak (32 percent) on Jan. 16. Huckabee, who had been leading McCain by 11 points in Gallup's poll on Jan. 6, is now on the wrong end of a gap the same size with 20 percent. Romney, now at 19 percent, has picked up some support and is creeping up on Huckabee, but both have quite a bit of ground to make up on McCain.

Gallup is interviewing 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day. The combined data from Jan. 22-24, 2008, including interviews with 1,045 Republican and Republican-leaning voters and 1,201 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, have a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.

The race for the South Carolina Democratic primary is considerably tighter today than it was earlier in the week, according to Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby tracking polls, with Barack Obama down to 38 percent and John Edwards up to 21. Despite gaining back the one percentage point she lost in yesterday's poll, Hillary Rodham Clinton is still 13 points behind Obama, and Edwards continues to creep up on her.

Today's poll, conducted Jan. 22-24, is Zogby's last installment of a three-day tracking poll. Wednesday's results (from a poll conducted Jan. 20-22) showed Obama with a clear advantage over Clinton, taking 43 percent to her 25 percent and Edwards trailing another 10 points further back. Yesterday's results (from Jan. 21-23) showed Obama's numbers dropping more than Clinton's as Edwards jumped to 19 percent.

The biggest movement over the course of the three days comes from Edwards' rise. He seems to be capturing most of the previously undecided voters, and the undecided vote is steadily shrinking as voters solidify their support. Most of the demographic figures have stayed the same across this week's tracking poll.

Today's results, as with the other two days of the tracking poll, were from a group of 811 likely Democratic voters in tomorrow's South Carolina primary. The margin of error is ±3.4 percentage points.

Heading into President Bush's final State of the Union address on Monday, there is agreement among voters of both parties that the state of the economy is a top priority for policymakers, according to today's release of an annual Pew Research Center report on the public's policy concerns. But there is a partisan divide about which other issues should also be considered top priorities.

Last January, there was a 12 percentage point gap between Republicans and Democrats on characterizing the economy as a top priority. That gap has since closed as the number of Republicans and independents who view strengthening the economy as an important issue has risen over the past year to levels held by Democrats in January 2007.

Despite bipartisan agreement on the importance of the economy — a top priority for 76 percent of respondents from each party — defending against terrorism is Republicans' most pressing concern (86 percent) and only fourth on the list for Democrats (74 percent). Republicans are also more likely than Democrats to cite illegal immigration (64 percent) and military issues (62 percent) as top priorities.

Democrats emphasize jobs, health care, education, the environment, and the poor. An overwhelming majority of Democrats (81 percent) say that reducing health care costs should be a top priority for policymakers. And, 76 percent of Democrats but fewer than half (43 percent) of Republicans say that the president and Congress should improve the job situation.

Thirty-four percent of respondents overall cite economic problems as the nation's most grave, compared with 27 percent who identify the war in Iraq as the biggest problem. This is a reversal from last January, when 42 percent cited Iraq as the most important problem, following the president's proposal to increase the number of troops in Iraq. Democrats are more likely to list the economy as the most important problem (39 percent) than Republicans (27 percent), but the economy does cause more concerns for Republicans than any other issue. Despite high levels of concern this month, 1992 still represents the peak of public concern about the economy.

Regarding responses about the economy, Pew adds this caveat: "Economic ratings today are somewhat more negative than they were a year ago, and down even more compared with the latter half of 2006. (However, this poll was conducted prior to the sharp decline in the international equity markets earlier this week)."

The margin of error for the total sample is ± 3 percentage points. The margin of error for polling of one party is ± 4 percentage points.

Asked which quality is more important in a president, most respondents in a Gallup poll released today said that they would prefer a tested leader over an inspirational one. The poll, conducted Jan. 10-13, shows that 71 percent of Americans say it is "very important" for a president to be inspiring and another 23 percent say it is "somewhat important." But, 52 percent of respondents said that they would opt for "a candidate who is a tested leader but who is not that inspiring" while only 43 percent would vote for "a candidate who is inspiring but who has not been tested as a leader."

Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning respondents, there is a correlation between the preference for an inspirational versus a tested leader and their current choice for their party's presidential nominee. Barack Obama leads among Democrats who place a higher value on inspiration. He has 49 percent of support from that group, while Hillary Rodham Clinton only takes in 29 percent and John Edward trails with 15 percent. Democrats who believe it is better to elect a tested leader show an even greater preference for Clinton, giving her a 41 percentage point margin over Obama.

The poll also asked all respondents, regardless of party, how they would characterize the leaders for both parties' presidential nominations. Republican John McCain is most likely to be viewed as a tested leader, with 72 percent of all respondents saying he fits that description. More than half of respondents (57 percent) also see Clinton as a tested leader, but only about one in three believe Obama and Mike Huckabee have been sufficiently tested as a leader.

While of course Gallup found that voters rated their own party's candidates higher, the pollsters added "but even Republicans are more likely to rate Obama than Huckabee as inspiring, and Democrats are more likely to view McCain than Obama as being a tested leader. Democrats give Obama only a slight edge over Clinton on inspiration (78 percent to 72 percent), his supposed strong suit."

The margin of error is ±2 percentage points.

John Edwards, who still trails Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton in South Carolina heading into Saturday's Democratic primary, has gained 4 percentage points in a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released today. The poll, conducted Jan. 21-23, shows Barack Obama's lead shrinking.

Zogby conducted a similar 3-day poll of likely Democratic voters from Jan. 20-22. Yesterday's results showed Obama with 43 percent support, but today's poll has him four points down at 39 percent. Hillary Rodham Clinton also seems to have lost some support, but she only dropped from 25 percent to 24. Edwards still trails at 19 percent.

The breakdown by race has also changed since yesterday's poll. Although Obama still has a healthy lead among African-American voters, he lost almost nine points since yesterday, dropping from 65 percent to 56 percent support among that group. Edwards, who registered no support from black voters the day before, picked up five points and Clinton added about two points to reach 18 percent. Nearly one in five (19 percent) of black voters said they were still undecided, up a point from Wednesday's poll.

Clinton has not made up any ground on Obama in other demographic groups in which she trailed on Wednesday. Obama still leads among men, women, older voters and young voters, and Edwards even leapt ahead of her among men.

John Zogby provides this analysis, "Edwards...has had his second good day since the Monday night CNN debate, in which he delivered a strong performance. He hit 19 percent support on Tuesday alone and then 27 percent support on Wednesday alone. And, on Wednesday alone, he pulled ahead of Clinton overall."

The margin of error of ±3.4 percentage points.

Two polls released today show falling numbers in consumer confidence. In a poll conducted Jan. 19, 20 and 22, an overwhelming 82 percent of respondents answered "worse" to a Gallup poll question asking whether they think the economy is getting better or worse. According to Gallup, "There is no sign from...Tuesday night interviewing that Tuesday's dramatic Federal Reserve Board interest-rate cut makes any difference in these views."

Gallup has been asking the same question in overlapping three-day periods since Jan. 2, and the numbers have been getting steadily less optimistic since then. The current "getting worse" number is 9 points higher than it was in early January; from the Jan. 2-4 responses, the "worse" score was 73 percent and "better" was 20. The margin of error for this poll is ±2 percentage points.

Gallup isn't the only poll to recognize a discernible pattern of falling consumer confidence. The Rasmussen Consumer Index, which measures the economic confidence of consumers on a daily basis, fell three points today to 85.4. It's the lowest score in nearly five years and only two points above the all-time low since Rasmussen began measuring consumer confidence in October 2001. The Index has fallen 8 times in 2008, dropping 14 points since Jan. 1. Over the past year, the Index is down thirty-four points in all. The baseline was set in Oct. 2001 at 100.0, so today's score indicates lower consumer confidence than in the immediate aftermath of Sept. 11. The all-time low was reached March 11, 2003 at 83.2.

Barack Obama now leads Hillary Rodham Clinton 43 percent to 24 in South Carolina, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll conducted Jan. 20-22 and released today. Heading into Saturday's Democratic primary, Obama has the clear advantage with African-American voters, men, and young voters, showing 65 percent support from black voters compared to Clinton's 16 percent, and leading Clinton 50 percent to 19 percent among men, with only a slightly smaller lead for the 18-29 age group. Unlike in the New Hampshire and Nevada Democratic primaries, Obama has more support from women than Clinton does, leads her by 8 percentage points as he takes 37 percent.

Clinton previously had been polling in the high 20s and into the 30s as recently as last week in American Research Group and McClatchy-MSNBC surveys. Regarding the Zogby poll results from today, John Zogby says, "Like other states before, this race appears to be fluid...The question here in South Carolina is, if Obama wins South Carolina, will his win be big enough? If his lead is cut to single digits, given where this race has been in recent weeks, it stands to be a big victory for Clinton."

John Edwards lags behind Obama and Clinton overall, pulling in just 15 percent of respondents, and finds almost no support from African-Americans. Edwards does not lead in any demographic category, and only challenges Clinton in support from white voters, 33 percent of whom favor Clinton and 32 percent of whom favor Edwards. Edwards is, once again, heading into a primary with a battle on his hands to pull in some of the undecided voters — this Zogby poll shows 14 percent undecided. If he does surge forward close to or past Clinton, it may signal a revival of his national campaign.

The poll of 811 likely Democratic primary voters has a margin of error of ±3.4 percentage points.

More than half of all Democrats are are either "extremely" or "very" enthusiastic about voting for president this year, according to a USA Today/Gallup poll released today. The level of general enthusiasm, 58 percent, is slightly higher than what Gallup found last April (53 percent), but not as high as in the last two months before the 2004 election. Interest levels in an election tend to increase over the course of a campaign cycle.

A companion question drew 60 percent of all respondents to say they are "more enthusiastic about voting than usual," while 29 percent report being less enthusiastic. Gallup also asked this question in January of the last two presidential election years, and the current figure is higher than the results from both 2000 and 2004.

For both measures of enthusiasm, Democrats are responding positively at higher rates than Republicans. There is a 12 percentage point difference in the "extremely" or "very" enthusiastic category, with Democrats responding at 64 percent and Republicans at 52 percent. There is a considerably higher 25 percentage point partisan gap on the comparative enthusiasm question, the largest party difference Gallup has ever measured in a presidential election year. While Democrats seem to be more excited about the presidential election this time around, the Republican figures are basically equivalent to what Gallup measured in January 2004 (53 percent) and January 2000 (51 percent).

Results based on a national sample of 2,010 adults have a margin of error of ±2 percent. The margin of error for results of just the Democrats or the Republicans is ±5 percent, due to the smaller sample size.

John McCain is at the head of the Republican race in Florida, according to an American Research Group poll released today. McCain, at 29 percent, is holding on to a seven percentage point lead over nearest rival Romney. Mike Huckabee comes in at 17 percent, keeping Rudy Giuliani — with 16 percent — fourth in a state where he has concentrated time, effort and money in order to launch a viable national campaign.

While the Democratic National Committee has stripped the state party of all its delegates, Florida Democrats will still be able to vote on Tuesday in the presidential primary. And at the moment, Hillary Rodham Clinton holds a large lead over Barack Obama.

In the poll of likely Democratic voters, Clinton has 59 percent to Obama's 21 percent, and leads him among several groups, including men, women, white voters and Hispanic voters. Obama pulls a 75 to 19 percent lead over Clinton with African-American voters. John Edwards is trailing, garnering support from only 14 percent of respondents.

The poll, conducted Jan. 20-21, has a margin of error of ± 4 percentage points.

The vast majority of Americans believe that there is a candidate currently running for the White House who would make a good president, according to a Gallup poll released today . The survey revealed that 84 percent of Americans feel that way, while in January 1992 just 40 percent agreed with the same question. Gallup concludes that this presidential election cycle appears to be less friendly than 1992 to a possible independent candidate.

The positive responses to whether candidates are talking about important issues was more than 70 percent, a number that is close to the percentages seen in polling conducted in October of both 1992 and 2000. Similarly, positive responses to whether any of the candidates have come up with good ideas for solving the country's problems (58 percent) are higher than results from January polls of previous election years and are close to the numbers of polls taken in October of previous election years.

There are several major differences between the 1992 election season and the current one, including an early start to the primaries, the presence of at least one nationally known candidate in each party and an open race for both parties' nominations. But, the results from today's poll suggest that no possible independent candidate would do as well in November as Ross Perot did in 1992.

The margin of error for the poll of 2,010 adults conducted Jan. 10-13 is plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Two new Florida polls released today - 8 days ahead of the presidential primary there - have conflicting news for John McCain.

A SurveyUSA/WFLA-TV/WKRG-TV poll done after the South Carolina primary has McCain leading in Florida with 25 percent, Rudy Giuliani is in second place with 20 percent (a drop of 3 points from last week), Mitt Romney is close behind with 19 percent, Mike Huckabee polls 14 percent and Fred Thompson and Ron Paul each have 7 percent support. SurveyUSA points out that "Giuliani led in SurveyUSA tracking polls released 11/06/07, 11/29/07, 12/04/07 and 12/17/07. He has not led since."

The poll was of likely voters (or people who had already early-voted) and has a margin of error of 4.4 percent.

Meanwhile, a Rasmussen poll shows Romney moving ahead in Florida, with 25 percent of the likely voters surveyed, McCain and Giuliani behing with 20 and 19 percent, respectively. Huckabee slipped from an earlier poll to 13 percent, and Thompson polled 12 percent. Romney is most popular with conservative voters.

Rasmussen points out that Florida is a closed Republican primary, so McCain's strength among independents will not be a factor here, and adds: "if McCain can win a Republican-only Primary in Florida, he will have a major advantage heading into Super Tuesday a week later."

While Rudy Giuliani is hoping Florida will jump start his national campaign, a Marist/WNBC poll released today reveals he is behind in his home state of New York for the Republican presidential nomination. Arizona Sen. John McCain leads the poll with 34 percent of Republican voters, Giuliani follows with 23 percent, Mitt Romney is close behind with 19 percent and Mike Huckabee rounds out the top four with 15 percent.

McCain's strongest support comes from upstate New York, where, as the poll notes: "the lion's share of the Republican vote will come." Giuliani polled better in New York city and suburbs. But the field is fluid, with most Reublicans not enthusiastic about their current choice.

Democratic voters, on the other hand, are generally enthusiastic about their candidate. Hillary Rodham Clinton led the poll with 48 percent, Barack Obama followed with 32 percent, John Edwards pulled 9 percent, Dennis Kucinich had 3 percent and 7 percent were undecided. Clinton's support was significantly stronger upstate, and Obama is stronger with younger voters.

The economy and the war in Iraq are the top two issues for all New Yorkers. Security/terrorism rounded out the top three issues for Republicans, while Democrats cited health care as a priority.

The poll was conducted Jan. 15-17, before the South Carolina and Nevada events of the weekend, had a margin of error of 5 percent for the Republican sample and 4 percent for the Democratic one.

New York is part of Super Tuesday - primary day is Feb. 5.

Gallup marks the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday with a poll on civil rights. When asked if the "MLK and 1960s civil rights movement" goals have been achieved, 43 percent agreed that all of most had been achieved, 54 percent said "only some/almost none" and 3 percent had no opinion. This is a significant and upbeat change from a similar question posed in January, 1997 , when only 26 percent agreed with the "all or most" category.

But when Gallup broke down the results into white and black respondents, whites were much more certain than blacks that all or most of the civil rights goals had been reached - 45 percent to 29 percent.

Gallup also takes the occasion to note the sharp change in American attitudes about Dr. King over the decades. In 1963, Gallup notes: "one month after King penned his open Letter From Birmingham Jail, in which he argued that 'one has a moral responsibility to disobey unjust laws.' In that 1963 survey, Gallup found nearly as many Americans holding an unfavorable view of King (37%) as held a favorable view (41%)."

But in 1999, two-thirds of Americans said King was their "most admired" or "admired" person of the 20th century, 22 percent said they somewhat admired him and 10 percent said they did not admire him.

Today's poll was conducted Jan. 17-19, 2008. The margin of error for the entire poll and for the white respondents was 2 percent. Because the sample size of black respondents was smaller, the margin of error for that subset was 8 percent.

Read the Hartford Courant/University of Connecticut Poll

OK, polls will be starting to come in on the states in the Feb. 5 mega-primary. And because none of the candidates in the top tier of each party has blown out the other, there is starting to be more focus on the delegate count. The Democratic winner needs a majority of 4,049 delegates and the Republican has to do the same with the party's 2,345 delegates.

In Connecticut, a mega-Tuesday state with 60 Democratic delegates and 30 Republican delegates, this poll says Hillary Clinton and John McCain are likely to win the prize. Clinton bests Barack Obama 41 percent to 27 percent with John Edwards at 9 percent. McCain is running way ahead of the rest of the GOP field with 39 percent compared to Rudy Giuliani in second place at 16 percent. Mitt Romney trails at 11 percent, followed by Mike Huckabee at 8 percent, Fred Thompson at 6 percent and Ron Paul at 2 percent.

The poll was conducted between Jan. 9-17, meaning some in the survey were interviewed before the results of the latest contests, and the margin of error was 5 percent.

Read the full Gallup poll

Since many pollsters seem to be taking a brief breather from the horse race following Saturday's contests, it's a chance to report on one of those polls that provide a snapshot on how Americans are viewing the state of the country. In a survey conducted earlier this month, Gallup found that 6 in 10 Americans believe now is a bad time to find a "quality" job. "This is up 13 percentage points from January 2007 and is the highest percentage since early December 2005, when 60 percent of Americans also held this view of the job market, " according to Gallup. The polling organization added that given the pressures brought about an election year, it was not surprising that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testified on Capitol Hill in favor of an immediate short-term fiscal stimulus plan.

Read the full story on the AP-Ipsos poll

An Associated Press-Ipsos poll - conducted Jan. 15-17 before votes in Nevada and South Carolina - showed that John McCain jumped from 13 percent support last month to lead the GOP pack now with 22 percent. Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney tied at 16 percent. Rudy Giuliani, the onetime leader with 26 percent, has dropped to 14 percent. The poll said these dynamics were at play: McCain "posted gains among moderates and conservatives alike, as well as men, married Republicans and suburbanites. He did not see an uptick among evangelicals; Huckabee continues to hold a strong lead among them. No one Republican candidate has an edge among women; Giuliani used to have a hold on that group." Margin of error is 5.2 percent.

Among Democrats, Hillary Clinton leads with 40 percent but Barack Obama has climbed 10 points since the last survey to 33 percent. John Edwards is at 13 percent. Obama has now made more competitive several voting blocs where Clinton had held a lead - such as minorities, young people, and Midwesterners. Clinton maintains a slight edge among women, low-income and lesser-educated Democrats, while losing some support among Democratic-leaning independents and self-described moderates. Margin of error is 4.5 percent.

An American Research Group poll released Friday night showed Mike Huckabee ahead of John McCain by 33 percent to 26 percent with Fred Thompson at 21 percent, and Mitt Romney at 9 percent. The margin of error is 4 percent. This poll is at odds with a Jan. 16-17 poll we reported earlier by Fox News poll showing McCain in the lead.

On the Democratic side, Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 45 percent to 39 percent with John Edwards at 10 percent. Margin of error here is also 4 percent.

Another poll, by SurveyUSA conducted for South Carolina news outlets, had McCain ahead of Huckabee 31 percent to 27 percent. But the poll said the difference was within the margin of error and either could win.

Barack Obama has made huge strides among African-American voters since October, according to a national CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released today. This reverses what had been a 24 percentage point deficit to Hillary Rodham Clinton.

In the poll, 59 percent of African-American Democrats support Obama while only 24 percent support Clinton. Obama, who has a large lead over Clinton with African-American men, also has turned around his support with African-American women, once a strong support base for the female senator.

African-Americans also are now less likely to believe that Clinton "understands the problems and concerns of blacks." Only 74 percent of African-American Democrats polled responded that she does, compared to an 88 percent rating in April 2007. Obama currently garners 82 percent on this question.

Among African-American Democrats, 42 percent believe the country would be better off in an Obama presidency than it is right now. Thirty-five percent believe the same about Clinton.

In the poll of registered Democrats, Clinton still leads Obama 42 percent to 33 percent. But both of the leading candidates lost support since a similar poll was conducted Jan. 9-10. John Edwards appears to have picked up most of the difference and Dennis J. Kucinich has gained a bit of ground at the back of the race.

Interviews with 1,393 adult Americans, including an oversample of African-Americans, conducted by telephone by Opinion Research Corporation on Jan. 14-17. The margin of error for results based on the total sample is ± 3 percentage points. The sample also includes 513 interviews among African-Americans (± 4.5 points) and 743 non-Hispanic whites (± 3.5 points). The sample of 448 registered Democrats has a margin of error of ± 4.5 points.

A Fox News poll conducted Jan. 16-17 shows McCain with a 7 percentage point lead over Huckabee heading into tomorrow's South Carolina Republican primary. Of the 500 registered voters likely to take part in the Republican primary, 71 percent of the respondents overall are certain to vote for the candidate they support. Romney supporters are the least likely to change their votes before tomorrow, with 80 percent responding that they are certain to cast a vote for him. But 73 percent of McCain and Thompson supporters feel the same degree of certainty. Huckabee rounds out the group of major candidates with only a 68 percent certainty score.

In a candidate-association question, McCain wins the "strong leader" comparison with 36 percent, 16 percentage points higher than Romney. He and Huckabee have almost identical scores (25 percent to 26 percent) as "honest and trustworthy," leading the other candidates by more than double figures. But, McCain scores lower than all of the candidates other than Giuliani in the "true conservative" category, losing out there to Thompson (28 percent).

In contrast to the Gallup poll reported today about Bush's approval ratings, the respondents polled by Fox News in South Carolina give the president a 74 percent approval rating — that score breaks down to 34 percent who strongly approve and 40 percent who somewhat approve.

The margin of error is ±4 percent.