Minnesota Public Radio has weighed in on the campaign in that state’s Super Tuesday caucuses, showing John McCain way ahead with 41 percent among Republicans, followed by Mike Huckabee at 22 percent and Mitt Romney at 17 percent. Among Democrats, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama by 40 percent to 33 percent with John Edwards, who had not yet dropped out, at 12 percent. However, this poll may not be a good predictor of the Feb. 5 outcomes because it surveyed voters only on the basis of party affiliation and not whether they were likely to attend the precinct caucuses.

Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion has a Jan. 30 Georgia poll showing McCain at 35 percent with Huckabee and Romney tied at 24 percent. On the Democratic side, Obama leads Clinton 56 percent to 32 percent. (A Rasmussen poll also had Obama ahead here, but by a smaller margin).

In Tennessee, Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion says McCain is leading with 33 percent to Huckabee's 25 percent and Romney's 18 percent. Among Democrats, Clinton leads Obama 59 percent to 26 percent.

Here are some of the other Super Tuesday polls we have reported:

• A Whirlwind Tour Of Eight Super Tuesday States
• New York, Massachusetts And National Match-Ups
• Clinton’s Strengths And Weaknesses in California
• New York And California: Clinton Way Ahead In Both, McCain On Top In New York

Read the latest Gallup poll

John McCain appears to be getting a considerable bounce from his victory in Florida, and the subsequent withdrawal of Rudy Giuliani, according to this poll conducted Jan. 28-30. McCain leads Mitt Romney 37 percent to 22 percent with Mike Huckabee at 17 percent. The interviews on the last day of the survey after Giuliani exited the race showed a significant increase in support for McCain.

On the Democratic side, Barack Obama keeps closing in on Hillary Clinton, narrowing her lead to 4 points. Clinton has 43 percent to Obama's 39 percent. Her lead over Obama is the narrowest since early January. John Edwards still had 8 percent in the poll, but the last night of interviewing did not produce any clear signal about which way his supporters might jump.

The margin of error is 3 percent.

Read the Associated Press-Yahoo poll story

Americans are in a sour mood about the state of the country and have great expectations about what a President can do about it, according to this survey conducted Jan. 18-28. Three-quarters believe a President can have some influence on reducing health care costs while 69 percent feel the same way about his or her's ability to deal with gasoline prices. The poll also found (surprise) that supporters of Hillary Clinton value experience over change by 78 percent to 21 percent while Barack Obama backers favor change over experience by 72 percent to 28 percent.

Read the full Gallup analysis

Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton by 60 percent to 29 percent among black Democratic voters surveyed Jan. 23-29. However, Clinton led Obama by 57 percent to 29 percent. The margin of error was 6 percent. Gallup said, "The vote of black Democrats promises to be significant in many states -- and congressional districts within states -- in next Tuesday's crucial Super Tuesday primaries." By the same token, the Hispanic vote could mean a big boost for Clinton in states like California, New York, New Mexico and New Jersey.

Rasmussen Reports has done quite a bit of polling on the Super Tuesday states, although some of the surveys are a bit dated. But we thought it might be useful to wrap some of them up for you.

Three common threads that jump out in the Democratic race are these: Hillary Clinton leads big among Hispanics, Barack Obama among blacks, and voters cite the economy as the top issue, usually by a double-digit margin over the number two issue, Iraq. It's worth checking out Gallup's analysis on race and ethnicity.

So here we go with a mix of Rasmussen’s Republican and Democratic Results:

• California:In a poll conducted after the Jan. 29 Florida vote but before John Edwards dropped out, Clinton had a small 3 point lead over Obama, within the 4 point margin of error. She held a 27 point lead among Hispanics, underlining a major challenge Obama has in this race in California and other states. The economy was cited as the number one issue by 46 percent of voters, while 29 percent named Iraq. This contrasted with a Jan. 23-26 survey by Gallup showing Clinton with a big lead.
• New York: A Jan. 16-17 poll had Clinton way ahead in her home state by 51 percent to 30 percent. She led Obama among all groups except blacks. Gallup also had Clinton leading bigtime in New York.
• New Jersey: Clinton led Obama 45 percent to 27 percent, but trailed him among blacks by 59 percent to 39 percent in a jan. 15 poll.
• Illinois: In a poll conducted just before the Florida primary results, John McCain led Mitt Romney 34 percent to 26 percent, with a 4 point margin of error. Mike Huckabee polled 16 percent. Only 54 percent of voters said they were sure they’d stick with their choice.
• Connecticut:In a poll conducted Jan. 28, just after the South Carolina outcome, Clinton and Obama were locked in a tie, at 40 percent each. On the GOP side, McCain led Romney by a big 42 percent to 26 percent margin, even though Romney was a neighboring state governor. McCain led Romney across all demographic groups.
• Florida:Clinton, who won kind of a neither-here-nor there contest in the actual primary because of the state’s dispute with the Democratic National Committee, led Obama 47 percent to 25 percent in a Jan. 27 poll.
• Missouri:In a Jan. 24 poll, Clinton led Obama 43 percent to 24 percent with a 4 percent margin of error.
• Georgia:Obama led Clinton 41 percent to 35 percent in a Jan. 22 poll. Obama led among blacks by 59 percent to 28 percent, while Clinton led among whites by 44 percent to 25 percent.
• Alabama: Clinton led Obama 43 percent to 28 percent in a Jan. 23 poll. Margin of error was 4 points.

In a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Jan. 29, Hillary Clinton led Barack Obama in her home state of New York by 45 percent to 33 percent, which is a narrowing of the gap for Obama. The poll was conducted before Rudy Giuliani’s decision to drop out, so on the GOP side, John McCain had been leading Giuliani 34 percent to 20 percent with Mitt Romney at 19 percent and Mike Huckabee at 10 percent. The margins of error were 3.4 percent for the Democrats and 2.9 percent for the Republicans. On issues, the economy and jobs ranked 46 percent and Iraq 30 percent, with all others in single digits.

In Massachusetts, another Super Tuesday state, a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted on the night that Sen. Edward Kennedy endorsed Barack Obama said that Clinton was leading Obama 43 percent to 37 percent. Like the New York poll, the economy was cited by voters as their top issue of concern, with Iraq coming in second. The margin of error was 3 percent.

In a hypothetical national match-up, Rasmussen says McCain leads Clinton 48 percent to 40 percent, and leads Obama 47 percent to 41 percent. The margin of error is 3 percent.

Read the full Gallup poll

Just over a week ago, Hillary Clinton was leading Barack Obama by 20 points, but in an updated Jan. 27-29 survey by Gallup, Obama has closed the gap to 6 points, with Clinton ahead 42 percent to 36 percent. One difference in this poll compared to the Gallup we reported earlier is that it includes two full days instead of one in interviewing that took place after the endorsement of Sen. Edward Kennedy. Another new factor to follow in the next poll is the effect of John Edwards decision to drop out of the race. Edwards was polling at 12 percent.

Among Republicans, John McCain leads Mitt Romney 32 percent to 21 percent, and it remains to be seen to whom supporters of Rudy Giuliani, at 11 percent, will turn when he drops out and endorses McCain as expected. Mike Huckabee registered 18 percent. McCain has to hope his victory starts the campaign cash flowing, because his latest report to the Federal Elections Commission showed that he closed out 2007 with only $2.9 million cash-on-hand.

The margin of error is 3 percent.

Read the full Gallup analysis

On Monday, Gallup reported that Hillary Clinton was significantly ahead in the two largest Super Tuesday states, New York and California. Today, Gallup’s analysts took a closer look at the findings of that Jan. 23-26 survey to assess Clinton’s strengths and weaknesses on the issues.

The toplines:

• Health Care: In both states, Clinton is far out front of Obama - by large double-digit margins - among voters who said health care was an important issue to them.
• Economy: Clinton outruns Obama by 57 percent to 29 percent in New York among voters who singled out the economy, but this margin is probably bolstered by her home-state advantage. In California, she leads Obama by only 45 percent to 40 percent.
• Iraq: This issue provides the closest margins between the two. In New York, voters concerned about Iraq favor Clinton 47 percent to 38 percent, but in California, her margin is only 41 percent to 39 percent over Obama, well within the 4 point margin of error.

Read the full Gallup poll

Gallup’s daily report on the presidential race show Barack Obama continuing to close the gap nationally with Hillary Clinton and John McCain still comfortably atop the Republicans, with Mitt Romney’s recent advances having stalled out, at least for now. The poll was conducted Jan. 26-28. It included part of the period after Sen. Edward Kennedy’s endorsement of Obama and was conducted before McCain’s victory last night in Florida. Gallup said its interviewing yesterday initially indicated that the Kennedy endorsement did not have a “dramatic effect,” but it will be interesting to see if that changes in later polls.

McCain leads Romney 31 percent to 19 percent with Huckabee at 17 percent and Rudy Giuliani at 13 percent. Exit polls in Florida yesterday showed that Giuliani tended to take moderate voters from McCain while Huckabee took conservatives from Romney, so that may be a clue to what will happen if Giuliani drops out after his poor showing in yesterday’s primary.

On the Democratic side, Clinton leads Obama 43 percent to 34 percent, with John Edwards - who is expected to drop out today – at 14 percent. Clinton’s lead is down 17 points since Jan. 24. Again, if past history provides any clue, polling during the campaign in some states indicated that Obama was the second choice of many Edwards supporters.

The margin of error was 3 percent.

... thanks to MSNBC.com and CNN.com...

• Most Important Issue: MSNBC's exit poll report said nearly half of Republican voters cited the economy as the most important issue, with others far behind, and John McCain and Mitt Romney ran even among these voters.
• Moderates vs. Conservatives: McCain won 4 in 10 moderates, Romney 4 in 10 conservatives, but what was different this time in Florida compared to McCain-George Bush in 2000 was that Rudy Giuliani took moderate votes from McCain and Mike Huckabee took conservative votes from Romney.
• Immigration: Only one in five Republican voters cited illegal immigration as the biggest issue.
• Race: On the Democratic side, Barack Obama took more than three-fourths of the black vote and one-fourth of the white vote, while Clinton won among whites but got only small share of the black vote.

The exit polls as analyzed by CNN also said the economy was a key issue in the primary and that McCain came out on top of Romney, despite Romney's efforts to sell himself as a succesful businessman. CNN also said that early exit polls showed that moderates who had been backing Giuliani had started to defect to McCain. But McCain faces a challenge on the other side of the spectrum, which is nailing down conservative Republicans.

Read the full Gallup analysis

The Gallup folks have down some further analysis of their poll released yesterday showing John McCain with a big lead among Republicans in New York, and a smaller one in California. They found that in both states, Republicans rate a candidate's ability to get things done in Washington as the most important characteristic they are looking for in a president and that McCain tops the rest of the GOP field on this score. McCain’s lead over his top challengers on this measure is more than 20 points in each state. His weakest showing against Rudy Giuliani in New York and Mitt Romney in California is on having new ideas to help solve the country’s problems.

On issues, the economy is now at the top of the list in both states.

The poll was conducted Jan. 23-26 and has a margin of error of 4 percent.

A CNN/Opinion Research poll , conducted Jan. 23-27, shows John McCain leading Mitt Romney 39 percent to 26 percent in California, a 19 point jump from McCain compared to two weeks ago. Romney also gained, rising 10 points. Rudy Giuliani has 13 percent and Mike Huckabee 11 percent. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. But in a USA Today/Gallup poll that we reported earlier, the McCain-Romney race was closer. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama by 49 percent to 32 percent, with 11 percent for John Edwards. But more than 80 percent of the Democratic voters were interviewed before the results were known of the South Carolina primary, and all of them before the Ted Kennedy endorsement of Obama.

In Florida which votes Tuesday, an American Research Group poll shows the same thing as five other polls on Monday - a tight race. Romney leads McCain 34 percent to 32 percent with a 4 point margin of error. Giuliani is at 12 percent and Huckabee at 11 percent.

And a SurveyUSA poll says "it is impossible to tell" who will win in Florida on Tuesday.

Read the full Gallup analysis

Gallup’s latest “where the Election stands” national poll, conducted Jan. 25-27, shows Barack Obama gaining slowly on Hillary Clinton while, on the GOP side, Mitt Romney is narrowing the gap with John McCain.

Clinton leads Obama 44 percent to 33 percent, down from a 20 point lead she held in Gallup’s Jan. 18-20 survey. Pollsters will certainly be watching to see if today’s ringing endorsement of Obama by Massachusetts Sen. Edward Kennedy provides an important boost as the candidates head into Super Tuesday on Feb. 5. Support for John Edwards is at 14 percent.

On the Republican side, John McCain leads Mitt Romney 29 percent to 21 percent, down from a recent high of 14 percent. Mike Huckabee has 18 percent and Rudy Giuliani 13 percent.

John McCain and Mitt Romney are locked in a tight battle in Florida on the eve of its primary, according to five polls published today. Several polls noted that McCain’s effort had been bolstered by the endorsement of popular Florida Gov. Charlie Crist.

• The Quinnipiac University poll: McCain has 32 percent to Romney’s 31 percent in a survey conducted Jan. 24-27. Margin of error is 4.1 percent. Rudy Giuliani has 14 percent and Mike Huckabee 13 percent. In Quinnipiac’s Jan. 14 survey, all four candidates were in range of each other. Quinnipiac pollster Peter brown says, “With 24 hours to go, the race is up in the air.” Among Democrats, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 50 percent to 30 percent with John Edwards at 12 percent.
• Zogby Poll: McCain has 33 percent to Romney’s 30 percent, with a margin of error of 3.4 percent. Giuliani leads Huckabee in the second-tier, 14 percent to 11 percent. The poll was conducted Jan. 25-27. Pollster John Zogby says, “The key demographic to watch is the mainline conservative voter, and McCain’s good day Sunday was the result of his improvement among that group. He retains strong support from moderates while Romney enjoys strong support among very conservative Republicans.”
• Rasmussen Reports: McCain and Romney are tied at 31 percent. Helped by the Crist endorsement, McCain picked up four percentage points over the previous day. Giuliani is at 16 percent and Huckabee at 11 percent. The survey suggests that “the election may be decided by the number of Giuliani and Huckabee supporters who decide to abandon their first choice in hopes of influencing the outcome.” The survey was conducted January 7 and has a margin of error of 4 percent.
• Suffolk University poll: McCain leads Romney 30 percent to 27 percent. Giuliani has 13 percent and Huckabee 11 percent. Forty-four percent of voters cited the economy as the most important issue facing the country followed by terrorism (20 percent), illegal immigration (18 percent), and the war in Iraq (13 percent). The poll was conducted Jan. 25-27 and has a 4.9 percent margin of error.
• Strategic Vision poll: McCain is at 27 percent, Romney 26 percent, Giuliani 17 percent, and Huckabee 15 percent in this Jan. 25-27 survey. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. The poll found a different order of importance of issues than Suffolk University, with Iraq at 19 percent, the economy at 18 percent, taxes at 15 percent, the war on terror and health care at 11 percent, and education at 10 percent.

Read the full USA Today/Gallup polls for California and New York

The USA Today/Gallup surveys, conducted Jan 23-26 in delegate-rich California and New York show Hillary Clinton significantly ahead of Barack Obama in both states while, on the GOP side, John McCain has moved into a clear lead over former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani in his home state, but is in a much closer contest with Mitt Romney in California.

In both states, Gallup divided its findings into “high-turnout” and “low-turnout” scenarios, noting especially that one in five registered Republicans in California said they had already voted by absentee ballot.

McCain leads Romney in California by 35 percent to 27 percent in a high-turnout election (4 percent margin of error), and 36 percent to 31 percent in a low-turnout vote (5 percent margin of error). Mike Huckabee and Giuliani are far behind in both variations, running about neck-and-neck with each other.

Among Democrats, Clinton leads Obama 47 percent to 35 percent in a high-turnout vote, and by a larger 51 percent to 33 percent in a low-turnout vote. John Edwards is at 10 percent in both scenarios. The margins of error are the same as for the Republicans.

In New York, McCain is running substantially ahead of Giuliani in both scenarios – 42 percent to 21 percent for high-turnout and 40 percent to 21 percent for low-turnout. Romney polls in the mid-teens. An earlier Marist/WNBC poll also showed McCain ahead.

On the Democratic side, Clinton leads Obama 56 percent to 28 percent in both scenarios with Edwards just barely in double-digits. Again the margins of error were 4 percent for high-turnout and 5 percent for low-turnout.

It should be noted that both polls were concluded before the results of the South Carolina Democratic primary. Also, Gallup found the GOP race in California to be fluid, with one-third of registered Republicans saying they could change their minds before primary day.

Nationally, a Gallup poll released today finds McCain faring better, with 31 percent support from Republican voters. But Gallup also says Romney has edged ahead of Huckabee, with 21 percent compared to Huckabee’s 18 percent. Gallup adds: “Romney appears to have gained the most from Fred Thompson's campaign exit -- he is up five percentage points since Jan. 20.”

The same poll shows Hillary Rodham Clinton ahead of Barack Obama nationally with 45 percent compared to Obama’s 32 percent and Edwards’ 13 percent. The Gallup poll has a margin of error of +/- 3 percent and was conducted Jan. 24-26, before the South Carolina primary results were announced.

Speaking of South Carolina, even before Saturday evening was over, Public Policy Polling was bragging that it came closest of all the pollsters in estimating the strength of Barack Obama in South Carolina. It cited a Jan. 25 poll showing Obama with 44 percent, 20 points ahead of Hillary Clinton. He finished with 55 percent of the vote, a number which no pollsters came close to predicting, as other polls this week had Obama's lead shrinking to 13-16 points.

SurveyUSA has a "report card" chart, comparing various pollsters and adds: "To put the size of Barack Obama’s South Carolina win into perspective: (The) Average Pollster Error in South Carolina’s Democratic Primary was 16.6 points. (The) Average Pollster Error in New Hampshire Democratic Primary was 9.6 points."

Read the full exit poll at MSNBC

Exit polls in South Carolina tell this story about how Barack Obama put together his big victory over Hillary Clinton.

• Obama’s margin among black voters was 78 percent to Clinton’s 19 percent.
• The black vote accounted for 55 percent of the Democratic turnout. The Washington Post analysis of the exit poll noted that this could be significant in several states that are part of the Feb. 5 mega-primary such as Georgia, Tennessee, Delaware, Missouri, Alabama, Illinois and New Jersey.
• The top choice among white voters was actually John Edwards, at 40 percent, to 36 percent for Clinton and 24 percent for Obama.
• Obama beat Clinton and Edwards by a margin of roughly 2-to-1 in one category of white voters, those under the age of 29. However, they accounted for only 5 percent of the turnout.
• Obama also ran better than Clinton among more highly-educated voters.
• More than half of the voters cited the ability to bring about change as their top priority and, among those, Obama bested Clinton 75 percent to 15 percent.
• One quarter of the voters said they made their choice based on their belief about which candidate “cares about people like me,” and Edwards won in this category with 43 percent to Obama’s 40 percent and Clinton’s 17 percent.
• Clinton ran away with the 14 percent of voters who based their choice on experience, registering 84 percent to Edwards’ 9 percent and Obama’s 7 percent.

Gallup has been polling voters daily and its Jan. 23-25 survey has John McCain atop the Republican field nationally, at 30 percent, with Mitt Romney moving up in the ranks to draw even with Mike Huckabee at 20 percent. Rudy Giuliani is at 13 percent and Ron Paul at 5 percent.

On the Democratic side, where things could change depending on today's South Carolina outcome, Hillary Clinton has a 47 percent to 32 percent lead nationally over Barack Obama with John Edwards at 11 percent. Nationally, Obama leads Clinton by about 2-to-1 among blacks, and Clinton leads Obama by 20 points among whites.

On the economy, Gallup says 22 percent of Americans rate current economic conditions as "excellent" or "good," while 46 percent call them "only fair," and 3 percent "poor."

According to an American Research Group poll released today, John McCain (31 percent) and Mitt Romney (26 percent) are distancing themselves from Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani in Florida. Huckabee is still in third, but he has dropped two percentage points from earlier this week and sits at 15 percent. Giuliani is still the fourth-place candidate and has also lost support since Tuesday's poll. Giuliani now only has 14 percent in the state where he has focused most of his campaigning so far.

The RNC cut half of Florida's delegates, leaving the state party with 57, because the chosen primary date violates RNC rules.

The poll, conducted Jan. 23-24 from 600 likely Republican primary voters, has a margin of error of ± 4 percentage points.

Gallup released tracking data from national daily polls conducted Jan. 22-24 that show John McCain is bolstering his front-runner status among Republicans. He has an 11 percent lead over Mike Huckabee, his closest challenger. Hillary Rodham Clinton has an even more substantial lead in the Democratic race. Her current 16 percentage point lead over Barack Obama (31 percent) is representative of her recent strength in national polling. And, her 47 percent is nearly 4 times the support trailing Democrat John Edwards (12 percent) can muster.

Among Democrats, polling results since Jan. 6, show a sizable 10 point pick-up by Clinton and 3- and 5-point losses by Obama and Edwards, respectively. In the last several weeks as tracked by Gallup, there has been no change in the order of Democratic candidates, although the outcome of Saturday's South Carolina Democratic primary could influence national polling results.

Among likely Republican and Republican-leaning voters, McCain's support has skyrocketed from 17 percent to 31 percent since Jan. 6. Since winning the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries, McCain has solidified his lead, hitting a peak (32 percent) on Jan. 16. Huckabee, who had been leading McCain by 11 points in Gallup's poll on Jan. 6, is now on the wrong end of a gap the same size with 20 percent. Romney, now at 19 percent, has picked up some support and is creeping up on Huckabee, but both have quite a bit of ground to make up on McCain.

Gallup is interviewing 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day. The combined data from Jan. 22-24, 2008, including interviews with 1,045 Republican and Republican-leaning voters and 1,201 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, have a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.

The race for the South Carolina Democratic primary is considerably tighter today than it was earlier in the week, according to Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby tracking polls, with Barack Obama down to 38 percent and John Edwards up to 21. Despite gaining back the one percentage point she lost in yesterday's poll, Hillary Rodham Clinton is still 13 points behind Obama, and Edwards continues to creep up on her.

Today's poll, conducted Jan. 22-24, is Zogby's last installment of a three-day tracking poll. Wednesday's results (from a poll conducted Jan. 20-22) showed Obama with a clear advantage over Clinton, taking 43 percent to her 25 percent and Edwards trailing another 10 points further back. Yesterday's results (from Jan. 21-23) showed Obama's numbers dropping more than Clinton's as Edwards jumped to 19 percent.

The biggest movement over the course of the three days comes from Edwards' rise. He seems to be capturing most of the previously undecided voters, and the undecided vote is steadily shrinking as voters solidify their support. Most of the demographic figures have stayed the same across this week's tracking poll.

Today's results, as with the other two days of the tracking poll, were from a group of 811 likely Democratic voters in tomorrow's South Carolina primary. The margin of error is ±3.4 percentage points.

Heading into President Bush's final State of the Union address on Monday, there is agreement among voters of both parties that the state of the economy is a top priority for policymakers, according to today's release of an annual Pew Research Center report on the public's policy concerns. But there is a partisan divide about which other issues should also be considered top priorities.

Last January, there was a 12 percentage point gap between Republicans and Democrats on characterizing the economy as a top priority. That gap has since closed as the number of Republicans and independents who view strengthening the economy as an important issue has risen over the past year to levels held by Democrats in January 2007.

Despite bipartisan agreement on the importance of the economy — a top priority for 76 percent of respondents from each party — defending against terrorism is Republicans' most pressing concern (86 percent) and only fourth on the list for Democrats (74 percent). Republicans are also more likely than Democrats to cite illegal immigration (64 percent) and military issues (62 percent) as top priorities.

Democrats emphasize jobs, health care, education, the environment, and the poor. An overwhelming majority of Democrats (81 percent) say that reducing health care costs should be a top priority for policymakers. And, 76 percent of Democrats but fewer than half (43 percent) of Republicans say that the president and Congress should improve the job situation.

Thirty-four percent of respondents overall cite economic problems as the nation's most grave, compared with 27 percent who identify the war in Iraq as the biggest problem. This is a reversal from last January, when 42 percent cited Iraq as the most important problem, following the president's proposal to increase the number of troops in Iraq. Democrats are more likely to list the economy as the most important problem (39 percent) than Republicans (27 percent), but the economy does cause more concerns for Republicans than any other issue. Despite high levels of concern this month, 1992 still represents the peak of public concern about the economy.

Regarding responses about the economy, Pew adds this caveat: "Economic ratings today are somewhat more negative than they were a year ago, and down even more compared with the latter half of 2006. (However, this poll was conducted prior to the sharp decline in the international equity markets earlier this week)."

The margin of error for the total sample is ± 3 percentage points. The margin of error for polling of one party is ± 4 percentage points.

Asked which quality is more important in a president, most respondents in a Gallup poll released today said that they would prefer a tested leader over an inspirational one. The poll, conducted Jan. 10-13, shows that 71 percent of Americans say it is "very important" for a president to be inspiring and another 23 percent say it is "somewhat important." But, 52 percent of respondents said that they would opt for "a candidate who is a tested leader but who is not that inspiring" while only 43 percent would vote for "a candidate who is inspiring but who has not been tested as a leader."

Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning respondents, there is a correlation between the preference for an inspirational versus a tested leader and their current choice for their party's presidential nominee. Barack Obama leads among Democrats who place a higher value on inspiration. He has 49 percent of support from that group, while Hillary Rodham Clinton only takes in 29 percent and John Edward trails with 15 percent. Democrats who believe it is better to elect a tested leader show an even greater preference for Clinton, giving her a 41 percentage point margin over Obama.

The poll also asked all respondents, regardless of party, how they would characterize the leaders for both parties' presidential nominations. Republican John McCain is most likely to be viewed as a tested leader, with 72 percent of all respondents saying he fits that description. More than half of respondents (57 percent) also see Clinton as a tested leader, but only about one in three believe Obama and Mike Huckabee have been sufficiently tested as a leader.

While of course Gallup found that voters rated their own party's candidates higher, the pollsters added "but even Republicans are more likely to rate Obama than Huckabee as inspiring, and Democrats are more likely to view McCain than Obama as being a tested leader. Democrats give Obama only a slight edge over Clinton on inspiration (78 percent to 72 percent), his supposed strong suit."

The margin of error is ±2 percentage points.

John Edwards, who still trails Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton in South Carolina heading into Saturday's Democratic primary, has gained 4 percentage points in a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released today. The poll, conducted Jan. 21-23, shows Barack Obama's lead shrinking.

Zogby conducted a similar 3-day poll of likely Democratic voters from Jan. 20-22. Yesterday's results showed Obama with 43 percent support, but today's poll has him four points down at 39 percent. Hillary Rodham Clinton also seems to have lost some support, but she only dropped from 25 percent to 24. Edwards still trails at 19 percent.

The breakdown by race has also changed since yesterday's poll. Although Obama still has a healthy lead among African-American voters, he lost almost nine points since yesterday, dropping from 65 percent to 56 percent support among that group. Edwards, who registered no support from black voters the day before, picked up five points and Clinton added about two points to reach 18 percent. Nearly one in five (19 percent) of black voters said they were still undecided, up a point from Wednesday's poll.

Clinton has not made up any ground on Obama in other demographic groups in which she trailed on Wednesday. Obama still leads among men, women, older voters and young voters, and Edwards even leapt ahead of her among men.

John Zogby provides this analysis, "Edwards...has had his second good day since the Monday night CNN debate, in which he delivered a strong performance. He hit 19 percent support on Tuesday alone and then 27 percent support on Wednesday alone. And, on Wednesday alone, he pulled ahead of Clinton overall."

The margin of error of ±3.4 percentage points.

Two polls released today show falling numbers in consumer confidence. In a poll conducted Jan. 19, 20 and 22, an overwhelming 82 percent of respondents answered "worse" to a Gallup poll question asking whether they think the economy is getting better or worse. According to Gallup, "There is no sign from...Tuesday night interviewing that Tuesday's dramatic Federal Reserve Board interest-rate cut makes any difference in these views."

Gallup has been asking the same question in overlapping three-day periods since Jan. 2, and the numbers have been getting steadily less optimistic since then. The current "getting worse" number is 9 points higher than it was in early January; from the Jan. 2-4 responses, the "worse" score was 73 percent and "better" was 20. The margin of error for this poll is ±2 percentage points.

Gallup isn't the only poll to recognize a discernible pattern of falling consumer confidence. The Rasmussen Consumer Index, which measures the economic confidence of consumers on a daily basis, fell three points today to 85.4. It's the lowest score in nearly five years and only two points above the all-time low since Rasmussen began measuring consumer confidence in October 2001. The Index has fallen 8 times in 2008, dropping 14 points since Jan. 1. Over the past year, the Index is down thirty-four points in all. The baseline was set in Oct. 2001 at 100.0, so today's score indicates lower consumer confidence than in the immediate aftermath of Sept. 11. The all-time low was reached March 11, 2003 at 83.2.

Barack Obama now leads Hillary Rodham Clinton 43 percent to 24 in South Carolina, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll conducted Jan. 20-22 and released today. Heading into Saturday's Democratic primary, Obama has the clear advantage with African-American voters, men, and young voters, showing 65 percent support from black voters compared to Clinton's 16 percent, and leading Clinton 50 percent to 19 percent among men, with only a slightly smaller lead for the 18-29 age group. Unlike in the New Hampshire and Nevada Democratic primaries, Obama has more support from women than Clinton does, leads her by 8 percentage points as he takes 37 percent.

Clinton previously had been polling in the high 20s and into the 30s as recently as last week in American Research Group and McClatchy-MSNBC surveys. Regarding the Zogby poll results from today, John Zogby says, "Like other states before, this race appears to be fluid...The question here in South Carolina is, if Obama wins South Carolina, will his win be big enough? If his lead is cut to single digits, given where this race has been in recent weeks, it stands to be a big victory for Clinton."

John Edwards lags behind Obama and Clinton overall, pulling in just 15 percent of respondents, and finds almost no support from African-Americans. Edwards does not lead in any demographic category, and only challenges Clinton in support from white voters, 33 percent of whom favor Clinton and 32 percent of whom favor Edwards. Edwards is, once again, heading into a primary with a battle on his hands to pull in some of the undecided voters — this Zogby poll shows 14 percent undecided. If he does surge forward close to or past Clinton, it may signal a revival of his national campaign.

The poll of 811 likely Democratic primary voters has a margin of error of ±3.4 percentage points.

More than half of all Democrats are are either "extremely" or "very" enthusiastic about voting for president this year, according to a USA Today/Gallup poll released today. The level of general enthusiasm, 58 percent, is slightly higher than what Gallup found last April (53 percent), but not as high as in the last two months before the 2004 election. Interest levels in an election tend to increase over the course of a campaign cycle.

A companion question drew 60 percent of all respondents to say they are "more enthusiastic about voting than usual," while 29 percent report being less enthusiastic. Gallup also asked this question in January of the last two presidential election years, and the current figure is higher than the results from both 2000 and 2004.

For both measures of enthusiasm, Democrats are responding positively at higher rates than Republicans. There is a 12 percentage point difference in the "extremely" or "very" enthusiastic category, with Democrats responding at 64 percent and Republicans at 52 percent. There is a considerably higher 25 percentage point partisan gap on the comparative enthusiasm question, the largest party difference Gallup has ever measured in a presidential election year. While Democrats seem to be more excited about the presidential election this time around, the Republican figures are basically equivalent to what Gallup measured in January 2004 (53 percent) and January 2000 (51 percent).

Results based on a national sample of 2,010 adults have a margin of error of ±2 percent. The margin of error for results of just the Democrats or the Republicans is ±5 percent, due to the smaller sample size.

John McCain is at the head of the Republican race in Florida, according to an American Research Group poll released today. McCain, at 29 percent, is holding on to a seven percentage point lead over nearest rival Romney. Mike Huckabee comes in at 17 percent, keeping Rudy Giuliani — with 16 percent — fourth in a state where he has concentrated time, effort and money in order to launch a viable national campaign.

While the Democratic National Committee has stripped the state party of all its delegates, Florida Democrats will still be able to vote on Tuesday in the presidential primary. And at the moment, Hillary Rodham Clinton holds a large lead over Barack Obama.

In the poll of likely Democratic voters, Clinton has 59 percent to Obama's 21 percent, and leads him among several groups, including men, women, white voters and Hispanic voters. Obama pulls a 75 to 19 percent lead over Clinton with African-American voters. John Edwards is trailing, garnering support from only 14 percent of respondents.

The poll, conducted Jan. 20-21, has a margin of error of ± 4 percentage points.

The vast majority of Americans believe that there is a candidate currently running for the White House who would make a good president, according to a Gallup poll released today . The survey revealed that 84 percent of Americans feel that way, while in January 1992 just 40 percent agreed with the same question. Gallup concludes that this presidential election cycle appears to be less friendly than 1992 to a possible independent candidate.

The positive responses to whether candidates are talking about important issues was more than 70 percent, a number that is close to the percentages seen in polling conducted in October of both 1992 and 2000. Similarly, positive responses to whether any of the candidates have come up with good ideas for solving the country's problems (58 percent) are higher than results from January polls of previous election years and are close to the numbers of polls taken in October of previous election years.

There are several major differences between the 1992 election season and the current one, including an early start to the primaries, the presence of at least one nationally known candidate in each party and an open race for both parties' nominations. But, the results from today's poll suggest that no possible independent candidate would do as well in November as Ross Perot did in 1992.

The margin of error for the poll of 2,010 adults conducted Jan. 10-13 is plus or minus 2 percentage points.

A SurveyUSA/WFLA-TV/WKRG-TV poll done after the South Carolina primary has McCain leading in Florida with 25 percent, Rudy Giuliani is in second place with 20 percent (a drop of 3 points from last week), Mitt Romney is close behind with 19 percent, Mike Huckabee polls 14 percent and Fred Thompson and Ron Paul each have 7 percent support. SurveyUSA points out that "Giuliani led in SurveyUSA tracking polls released 11/06/07, 11/29/07, 12/04/07 and 12/17/07. He has not led since."

The poll was of likely voters (or people who had already early-voted) and has a margin of error of 4.4 percent.

Meanwhile, a Rasmussen poll shows Romney moving ahead in Florida, with 25 percent of the likely voters surveyed, McCain and Giuliani behing with 20 and 19 percent, respectively. Huckabee slipped from an earlier poll to 13 percent, and Thompson polled 12 percent. Romney is most popular with conservative voters.

Rasmussen points out that Florida is a closed Republican primary, so McCain's strength among independents will not be a factor here, and adds: "if McCain can win a Republican-only Primary in Florida, he will have a major advantage heading into Super Tuesday a week later."

McCain's strongest support comes from upstate New York, where, as the poll notes: "the lion's share of the Republican vote will come." Giuliani polled better in New York city and suburbs. But the field is fluid, with most Reublicans not enthusiastic about their current choice.

Democratic voters, on the other hand, are generally enthusiastic about their candidate. Hillary Rodham Clinton led the poll with 48 percent, Barack Obama followed with 32 percent, John Edwards pulled 9 percent, Dennis Kucinich had 3 percent and 7 percent were undecided. Clinton's support was significantly stronger upstate, and Obama is stronger with younger voters.

The economy and the war in Iraq are the top two issues for all New Yorkers. Security/terrorism rounded out the top three issues for Republicans, while Democrats cited health care as a priority.

The poll was conducted Jan. 15-17, before the South Carolina and Nevada events of the weekend, had a margin of error of 5 percent for the Republican sample and 4 percent for the Democratic one.

New York is part of Super Tuesday - primary day is Feb. 5.

But when Gallup broke down the results into white and black respondents, whites were much more certain than blacks that all or most of the civil rights goals had been reached - 45 percent to 29 percent.

Gallup also takes the occasion to note the sharp change in American attitudes about Dr. King over the decades. In 1963, Gallup notes: "one month after King penned his open Letter From Birmingham Jail, in which he argued that 'one has a moral responsibility to disobey unjust laws.' In that 1963 survey, Gallup found nearly as many Americans holding an unfavorable view of King (37%) as held a favorable view (41%)."

But in 1999, two-thirds of Americans said King was their "most admired" or "admired" person of the 20th century, 22 percent said they somewhat admired him and 10 percent said they did not admire him.

Today's poll was conducted Jan. 17-19, 2008. The margin of error for the entire poll and for the white respondents was 2 percent. Because the sample size of black respondents was smaller, the margin of error for that subset was 8 percent.

Read the Hartford Courant/University of Connecticut Poll

OK, polls will be starting to come in on the states in the Feb. 5 mega-primary. And because none of the candidates in the top tier of each party has blown out the other, there is starting to be more focus on the delegate count. The Democratic winner needs a majority of 4,049 delegates and the Republican has to do the same with the party's 2,345 delegates.

In Connecticut, a mega-Tuesday state with 60 Democratic delegates and 30 Republican delegates, this poll says Hillary Clinton and John McCain are likely to win the prize. Clinton bests Barack Obama 41 percent to 27 percent with John Edwards at 9 percent. McCain is running way ahead of the rest of the GOP field with 39 percent compared to Rudy Giuliani in second place at 16 percent. Mitt Romney trails at 11 percent, followed by Mike Huckabee at 8 percent, Fred Thompson at 6 percent and Ron Paul at 2 percent.

The poll was conducted between Jan. 9-17, meaning some in the survey were interviewed before the results of the latest contests, and the margin of error was 5 percent.

Read the full Gallup poll

Since many pollsters seem to be taking a brief breather from the horse race following Saturday's contests, it's a chance to report on one of those polls that provide a snapshot on how Americans are viewing the state of the country. In a survey conducted earlier this month, Gallup found that 6 in 10 Americans believe now is a bad time to find a "quality" job. "This is up 13 percentage points from January 2007 and is the highest percentage since early December 2005, when 60 percent of Americans also held this view of the job market, " according to Gallup. The polling organization added that given the pressures brought about an election year, it was not surprising that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testified on Capitol Hill in favor of an immediate short-term fiscal stimulus plan.

Read the full story on the AP-Ipsos poll

An Associated Press-Ipsos poll - conducted Jan. 15-17 before votes in Nevada and South Carolina - showed that John McCain jumped from 13 percent support last month to lead the GOP pack now with 22 percent. Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney tied at 16 percent. Rudy Giuliani, the onetime leader with 26 percent, has dropped to 14 percent. The poll said these dynamics were at play: McCain "posted gains among moderates and conservatives alike, as well as men, married Republicans and suburbanites. He did not see an uptick among evangelicals; Huckabee continues to hold a strong lead among them. No one Republican candidate has an edge among women; Giuliani used to have a hold on that group." Margin of error is 5.2 percent.

Among Democrats, Hillary Clinton leads with 40 percent but Barack Obama has climbed 10 points since the last survey to 33 percent. John Edwards is at 13 percent. Obama has now made more competitive several voting blocs where Clinton had held a lead - such as minorities, young people, and Midwesterners. Clinton maintains a slight edge among women, low-income and lesser-educated Democrats, while losing some support among Democratic-leaning independents and self-described moderates. Margin of error is 4.5 percent.

An American Research Group poll released Friday night showed Mike Huckabee ahead of John McCain by 33 percent to 26 percent with Fred Thompson at 21 percent, and Mitt Romney at 9 percent. The margin of error is 4 percent. This poll is at odds with a Jan. 16-17 poll we reported earlier by Fox News poll showing McCain in the lead.

On the Democratic side, Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 45 percent to 39 percent with John Edwards at 10 percent. Margin of error here is also 4 percent.

Another poll, by SurveyUSA conducted for South Carolina news outlets, had McCain ahead of Huckabee 31 percent to 27 percent. But the poll said the difference was within the margin of error and either could win.

Barack Obama has made huge strides among African-American voters since October, according to a national CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released today. This reverses what had been a 24 percentage point deficit to Hillary Rodham Clinton.

In the poll, 59 percent of African-American Democrats support Obama while only 24 percent support Clinton. Obama, who has a large lead over Clinton with African-American men, also has turned around his support with African-American women, once a strong support base for the female senator.

African-Americans also are now less likely to believe that Clinton "understands the problems and concerns of blacks." Only 74 percent of African-American Democrats polled responded that she does, compared to an 88 percent rating in April 2007. Obama currently garners 82 percent on this question.

Among African-American Democrats, 42 percent believe the country would be better off in an Obama presidency than it is right now. Thirty-five percent believe the same about Clinton.

In the poll of registered Democrats, Clinton still leads Obama 42 percent to 33 percent. But both of the leading candidates lost support since a similar poll was conducted Jan. 9-10. John Edwards appears to have picked up most of the difference and Dennis J. Kucinich has gained a bit of ground at the back of the race.

Interviews with 1,393 adult Americans, including an oversample of African-Americans, conducted by telephone by Opinion Research Corporation on Jan. 14-17. The margin of error for results based on the total sample is ± 3 percentage points. The sample also includes 513 interviews among African-Americans (± 4.5 points) and 743 non-Hispanic whites (± 3.5 points). The sample of 448 registered Democrats has a margin of error of ± 4.5 points.

A Fox News poll conducted Jan. 16-17 shows McCain with a 7 percentage point lead over Huckabee heading into tomorrow's South Carolina Republican primary. Of the 500 registered voters likely to take part in the Republican primary, 71 percent of the respondents overall are certain to vote for the candidate they support. Romney supporters are the least likely to change their votes before tomorrow, with 80 percent responding that they are certain to cast a vote for him. But 73 percent of McCain and Thompson supporters feel the same degree of certainty. Huckabee rounds out the group of major candidates with only a 68 percent certainty score.

In a candidate-association question, McCain wins the "strong leader" comparison with 36 percent, 16 percentage points higher than Romney. He and Huckabee have almost identical scores (25 percent to 26 percent) as "honest and trustworthy," leading the other candidates by more than double figures. But, McCain scores lower than all of the candidates other than Giuliani in the "true conservative" category, losing out there to Thompson (28 percent).

In contrast to the Gallup poll reported today about Bush's approval ratings, the respondents polled by Fox News in South Carolina give the president a 74 percent approval rating — that score breaks down to 34 percent who strongly approve and 40 percent who somewhat approve.

The margin of error is ±4 percent.

The most recent USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted Jan. 10-13 and released today, finds that Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are equally likely to believe that Obama and Clinton are committed to changing Washington. Democratic voters believe the candidates are either very committed or somewhat committed to "bringing about real change in Washington" in high numbers, with Clinton earning 89 percent and Obama 88 percent of those responses.

Among a sample of all Americans, Democratic and Republican, Gallup also asked whether the two leading Democratic candidates and the two leading Republican candidates — McCain and Huckabee — could bring about change if elected president. McCain (59 percent) falls between Obama (61 percent) and Clinton (57 percent), but nearly the same number of people are pessimistic (47 percent) about Huckabee's ability to bring change as are optimistic (46 percent) about it.

The margin of error for all adult respondents in the sample is ±2 percentage points, and the margin of error for the sample of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents is ±3 percentage points.

Obama and Clinton — not to mention third-place John Edwards — are competing fiercely to be considered the candidate of "change." While in some early exit polls Obama has been faring best among voters who are most interested in change, these data suggest that most Democrats believe Clinton is as committed to changing Washington as Obama, and that Obama is as capable of delivering change as Clinton. But Americans — including a slim majority of Democrats — believe Republican John McCain could change Washington as well.

And it's no surprise that the ability to effect change is important to voters looking to replace the current resident of the White House. President Bush's 33.3 percent average approval rating for 2007, as compiled by Gallup, is his lowest yearly average. His most recent approval rating, 34 percent, is considerably lower than the high ratings he had in polls from his first two years in office. After approval ratings around 70 percent in 2001 and 2002, Bush's ratings have shown consistent declines that have shaved nearly 40 percent off of his popularity. The 2007 average is not only the lowest of Bush's presidency, but it is one of the lowest of all time since 1945, when Gallup began tracking presidential approval — he is "bested" only by Richard Nixon's approval scores immediately preceding his resignation and Harry Truman's during the Korean War.

"Bush averaged 62.2% approval for his first four years in office, one of the better term averages since World War II. His average approval rating in his second term so far is 38.8%, which would be one of the worst." Compared to the other four presidents since World War II who have served a seventh year, Bush falls with Truman (26.5 percent) to the unpopular end of the spectrum, while Dwight Eisenhower (63.9) and Bill Clinton (60.5) enjoyed high approval. Ronald Reagan, the other president in this group had an approval of 48.2 percent.

A Las Vegas Review-Journal poll released today finds that Republican Mitt Romney leads his closest opponent by 15 points. He tops John McCain 34 percent to 19 percent.

Unlike other GOP candidates, Romney has invested extensively in the state and although Rudy Guiliani led in earlier Review-Journal polls as recently as December, Romney is now Republican caucus-goers' favorite candidate. He's the pick on every issue and for every voter group except those describing themselves as born-again Christians, who favored Mike Huckabee.

For the Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton is ahead of Barack Obama by 9 points, 41 percent to 32 percent. Clinton continues to maintain the edge she's had in most state polls despite Obama's intense efforts to compete in Nevada and his recent union endorsements.

After polls failed to predict the winners of the New Hampshire primaries, concerns linger that it will be hard to accurately poll for Nevada's first-time early caucus, since it is difficult to determine who will attend.

"It certainly presents some interesting challenges, but I don't think it's impossible to do," said Mason-Dixon Polling & Research pollster, Brad Coker. "It took a lot of work, but I think I figured it out. I'm pretty comfortable with the way we did it."

The poll of 500 likely caucus-goers for each party was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. from Monday through Wednesday and has a margin of error of 4.5 points.

We reported earlier on several polls taking the temperature of voters in South Carolina and here is another one to throw into the mix from McClatchy-MSNBC. The survey, conducted Monday through Wednesday by Mason-Dixon Polling, says John McCain and Mike Huckabee are running neck-and-neck, a different result from the other polls. McCain has a statistically insignificant lead with 27 percent, to 25 percent for Huckabee, 15 percent for Mitt Romney and 13 percent for Fred Thompson, who has heaped much importance on this primary. Ron Paul has 6 percent and it’s good-bye Rudy Giuliani in this state, having sunk to 5 percent. The margin of error is 5 percent. The poll did find some volatility and possibility of change in voter choices. 8 percent are undecided among Republicans.

Among Democrats, Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton as he did in an American Research Group Survey. Obama’s support is at 40 percent to Clinton’s 31 percent, with John Edwards at 13 percent. The undecided among Democrats, at 13 percent, is larger than on the GOP side.

In a Reuters/Zogby national preference poll released today, Obama has caught up to Clinton. She now leads Obama by only 39 percent to 38 percent after holding leads of eight points or larger in each month of this poll dating back to May. Edwards is at only 9 percent. The margin of error is 4.7 percent.

On the Republican side, some caution should be exercised in digesting the numbers since the poll was conducted Jan. 10-11, before Romney’s Michigan victory. McCain leads Huckabee 28 percent to 23 percent with Thompson at 14 percent, Romney at 13 percent, Giuliani at 9 percent and Paul at 4 percent.

Nearly two-thirds of adults polled by Gallup between Jan. 10-13 responded that they had given "quite a lot" of thought to the presidential election in November. Gallup has recorded similar data in January for the 2004, 2000 and 1992 general elections, and in no other year has the response reached 60 percent. The lowest percentage from January for the "quite a lot" response was in 1992 (30 percent), and the number rose sharply between the 2000 data and the 2004 data. Over the course of January 2004, the numbers rose 13 percentage points from 45 percent to 58 percent.

Unsurprisingly, fewer independents (58 percent) have thought "quite a lot" about this election than either Republicans (66 percent) or Democrats (70 percent).

Several factors may be contributing to the level of attention already given to the election, including the early start to a front-loaded primary calendar, campaigns by both a woman and an African-American, and the absence of an incumbent president or vice-president. Gallup also points out the possible effect of personalities on this race, given the "fact that the cast of characters this year is widely varied and interesting" and that, for the first time, a former president's spouse is running for the Oval Office.

The margin of error is ±2 percentage points.

McCain's lead in South Carolina is holding steady and Huckabee has kept the number two spot, according to two polls released by Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby this week. McCain's 29 percent both days led Huckabee's 23 percent yesterday and 22 percent today. Reuters put Romney at 13 percent yesterday but only 12 percent today. Thompson, though, bounced from 12 percent yesterday to 14 percent today, leapfrogging Romney to third.

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby's margin of error is ± 3.44 percentage points.

An American Research Group poll conducted Jan. 15-16 also has McCain leading, coming in with 33 percent, 10 percentage points higher than Huckabee and 13 higher than Romney. In the results from that poll, McCain only takes 29 percent of the Republican vote, but he has a 2-to-1 lead over his nearest GOP rival with self-described independents and Democrats.

ARG also polled likely Democratic primary voters, and Obama and Clinton account for more than 80 percent of that vote. Obama comes in at 44 percent and Clinton trails him at 38 percent. Obama leads Clinton both among Democrats and independents, although Clinton only trails by 2 percentage points among Democrats. Native son Edwards is having trouble fending off that mercurial candidate "undecided," but he does find more support among independents than members of his party. Of the 26 percent of respondents who are self-identified independents, 15 percent would vote for Edwards. He has only 7 percent of the Democratic respondents.

The ARG poll had a margin of error of ± 4 percentage points.

Leading presidential candidates from both parties have thrown about the word change as if it's the only issue that speaks to American voters. And, according to a USA Today/Gallup poll released today, nearly 80 percent of Americans do want to see the next president change direction from Bush administration policies. Of the more than 1,021 adults questioned between Jan. 10-13, only 17 percent of respondents want to see current policies continued.

The Iraq War (26 percent), health care (19 percent) and the economy (18 percent) were specific areas where Americans most want to see change. Illegal immigration (10 percent) is the only other response that garnered a double-figure percentage. The margin of error in this poll was ±2 percent.

Gallup points out that these results parallel those found in monthly polls asking Americans to identify the most important problem facing the nation. This January's top four problems are Iraq, the economy, health care, and immigration. "This finding is significant. It suggests that when Americans say they want the next president to bring about change, they mainly are thinking about solving what they perceive to be the nation's significant problems. There is very little discussion in these open-end[ed questions] of a desire to bring about more fundamental changes in the way Washington operates, in the process of governing, and so forth."

But, Gallup also has tracked voters' concerns about change generally. A series of annual polls taken since January 2001 — which ask about satisfaction with the system of government and not about specific issues — have shown declining numbers of Americans who are very satisfied with our government and rising numbers of those who are very dissatisfied since 2002. Despite the shift at the extremes of the spectrum, the percentages of "somewhat satisfied" and "somewhat dissatisfied" Americans have held relatively steady. Current numbers show that the total of satisfied Americans outnumber the total of dissatisfied Americans 53 percent to 47 percent as of the Jan. 4-6 poll of 1,023 adults. The margin of error in this poll is ±3 percent.

A Diageo/Hotline national poll of expected primary voters says that John McCain has become a clear frontrunner in the Republican race by jumping 22 points since last month and leading the field with 32 percent to Mike Huckabee’s 17 percent and Mitt Romney’s 15 percent. Rudy Giuliani continued the fade he has shown in most polls by slipping 9 points to 12 percent while Fred Thompson has 7 percent. The big “however” in this poll, which has a margin of error of 6 percent on the GOP side, is that it was conducted Jan. 10-12 – before Romney won a reprieve in Michigan. And South Carolina could also have the potential to change some of the campaign dynamics. The poll also found McCain made a strong showing in two other areas: that a huge majority of Republicans surveyed believe he will be the eventual nominee, and a significant number think he is most electable in November. The grain of salt is that 59 percent of likely Republican primary voters say they may change their minds before their states weigh in.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are in a statistical dead heat (hope you’re not getting tired of that phrase) at 38 percent for Clinton and 35 percent for Obama. The margin of error is 5 percent. John Edwards polled 13 percent. The survey also finds less fluidity in the race than the Republicans in terms of the number of voters who said they might change their minds before their primary election days.

The three leading Republican candidates draw support from three different ideologically oriented support bases, but experience counts for more in the Democratic race, according to a national survey conducted Jan. 9-13 and released today by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press.

McCain's support from moderate to liberal Republicans and Republican-leaning voters is 41 percent, far higher than the 20 percent Huckabee receives from the same group or the 8 percent Romney does. Huckabee's support among Evangelical Republicans and Republican-leaning conservatives outstrips McCain's by 8 percentage points. And, Romney beats the other two candidates in polling among non-Evangelical Republicans and Republican-leaning conservatives.

In the Democratic race, though, the poll shows that Clinton's involvement in her husband's administration and Obama's relative lack of experience in national politics will matter more to voters — both Democratic and Republican — than Clinton's gender or Obama's race. More than one-third of both Democratic and Republican voters believe that Clinton's gender will hurt her candidacy, but more than 60 percent believe that her gender will either help her campaign or that it will make no difference. Fifty-four percent of Republicans and 47 percent of Democrats believe that race will not make a difference in Obama's campaign.

Clinton's involvement in her husband's administration is seen as more important than her gender – 53 percent of Democrats say it will help her, while 46 percent of Republicans say it will hurt. For both registered voters of both parties, Obama's relative inexperience in national politics will be a bigger factor than his race. Forty-four percent of Democrats and 52 percent of Republicans believe that Obama being relatively new to national politics will hurt him.

In this Pew poll, the total sample was 1,515, of which 1,255 were registered voters. The margin of error for both groups was ±3 percentage points. The margin of error for the 499 registered Republicans and Republican-leaning respondents was ±5 percentage points, and the margin of error for the 621 registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning respondents was ±4.5 percentage points.

A USA Today/Gallup poll released today shows strengths and weaknesses among the leading Republican and Democratic presidential candidates. The poll, conducted Jan. 10-13, compared the candidates in potential general election contests, matching McCain and Huckabee against Clinton and Obama in hypothetical top-of-the-ticket ballots.

Among likely voters, McCain out-polls both Clinton and Obama with independents and is competitive with them among self-identified moderates. He holds a 4 percentage point lead over Obama with independents, but that gap expands to 12 when he is matched up against Clinton.

The data show that both Clinton and Obama fare better among women than men. Both of the Democratic candidates in this poll also win more support from women than do the Republican candidates, although Obama holds only a slight 1 percentage point edge over McCain. Clinton has a 7 percentage point lead over McCain from likely women voters and a 13 percentage point lead against Huckabee among the same group.

The Democratic candidates lead among likely voters aged 18-34, but McCain has a consistent edge over both Clinton and Obama for voters aged 35-54 as well as 55 and older. Huckabee trails both Democratic candidates across all age groups, with the largest gap — 21 percentage points — against Obama in the 18-34 group.

For results based on the sample of 1,598 likely voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. Margins of error for the subgroups will be larger.

The economy was certainly the largest factor in Michigan's GOP primary last night, as an MSNBC exit poll showed. Fifty-five percent cited that as their top concern, 18 percent said Iraq and 14 percent said illegal immigration were the dominating issues.

Romney's upbeat economic message helped propel him to victory. But that wasn't necessarily predicted by the polls leading up to the primary, which were wildly different. Of those taken over the last week, one had McCain winning with 34 percent of the vote (Jan.9-11 survey), another showed an almost dead heat, McCain with 27 percent, Romney with 26 percent. The one thing they shared in common was a large number of undecided voters - as high as 16 percent. Of the six polls we wrote about in Poll Tracker, there was a 50-50 split with Romney and McCain each topping three of them.

Who came the closest? The Mitchell Interactive Poll with Romney at 35 percent, McCain 29, Huckabee 12. The actual results were: Romney 39 percent, McCain 30 percent and Huckabee 16 percent.

Why so different? In the statistics world, it's called confounding variables, which make it hard to compare polls. Some of the polls were done with likely Republican voters only, others included independents and Democrats, who did not turn out as much as some pundits suggested. Some polls were conducted Thursday-Sunday, others Friday-Monday. Some had larger margins of error than others. And, there was the weather factor; cold and snow may have discouraged some voters. And the large number of uncommitted voters could have been the most confounding of all.

Of course all polls, no matter how well they're done, have a chance of being wrong - it's just the random variation of sampling.

 A telephone tracking poll taken by Mitchell Interactive  Jan 12-14 ahd some potential good news for Mitt Romney tonight. Of likely Republican voters, Romney was ahead with 35 percent, John McCain was in second place with 29 percent, Mike Huckabee was third, as he has been in many Michigan polls, with 12 percent and then the field dropped off with Rudy Giuliani, Ron Paul, Fred Thompson and Duncan Hunter polling less than 5 percent each. Seven percent of the voters were uncommitted.

        “As the undecided voters make up their minds, more are turning to Mitt Romney than to John McCain.” Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Interactive said. 

The poll has a 4.1 percent margin of error.

Tomorrow, Poll Tracker will compare all the pre-primary Michigan polls to see who came out on top. 

While very few polls have been done in Nevada, expect attention to turn westward once the Michigan primary finishes tonight. Nevada's Republicans and Democrats caucus Saturday and the Reno Gazette-Journal poll shows a squeaker for both parties. Barack Obama leads with 32 percent, Hillary Clinton is narrowly behind him with 30 percent and John Edwards is in his customary third-place, but not far behind with 27 percent.

Republicans choices are more spread out. John McCain leads this poll with 22 percent, Rudy Giuliani, who's been campaigning mostly in Florida for the last few weeks, is in second place with 18 percent, Mike Huckabee has 16 percent, with the rest of the pack coming in as follows: Romney: 15 percent, Fred Thompson 11 percent, Ron Paul 6 percent and Duncan Hunter 1 percent The poll was conducted over the weekend and the margin of error is 4.5 percent. A very narrow race, indeed, at least right now.

A new national poll by USA/Today Gallup puts John McCain and Hillary Clinton out in front, and a survey of California – the biggest prize in the Feb. 5 mega-primary – roughly mirrors the national result, although with the caveat that a huge chunk of voters on the Republican side in the state are undecided.

John McCain and Rudy Giuliani have “essentially swapped positions” in the GOP race, according to the USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted Jan 10-13.McCain has 33 percent while Giuliani has dropped to third with 13 percent since Gallup’s mid-December poll. Mike Huckabee is second with 19 percent, a shade higher than he was before Iowa and New Hampshire weighed in, and Mitt Romney has 13 percent. Fred Thompson has sunk to 9 percent. The margin of error is 4 percent.

In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 45 percent to 33 percent, slightly less than her 18 point December lead, although her support has remained the same while Obama has edged up. John Edwards, who rose to 20 percent in December, has slipped back to 13 percent. The margin of error is 3 percent.

The headline for California in a CNN/L.A. Times/ Politico poll is that a solid majority (61 percent) have yet to make up their minds. Things are clearer among the Democrats where Clinton is in the lead.

The poll, conducted Jan. 11-13, shows 61 percent of likely Republican primary voters are not certain of their choice. McCain leads with 20 percent, Romney has 16 percent, Giuliani is at 14 percent and Huckabee at 13 percent. Bringing up the rear is Ron Paul at 8 percent and Thompson at 6 percent. Margin of error was 6 percent.

On the Democratic side, Clinton shows support of 37 percent of likely Democratic voters, followed by Barack Obama at 31 percent and Edwards at 10 percent. Margin of error is 5 percent.

A Public Policy Polling survey conducted on Friday and Saturday among likely South Carolina voters finds that Barack Obama and John McCain are widening their leads.

Barack Obama leads Hillary Rodham Clinton 44 to 31 percent, while South Carolina native John Edwards follows with 16 percent. Obama holds a slight edge among likely Democratic female voters, but his margin tightens to 42 percent to 37 percent over Clinton.

A strong showing by Clinton tomorrow in Michigan and Nevada later this week could slow down Obama's momentum.

For the GOP, John McCain captured 28 percent of the surveyed Republicans to Huckabee's 21 percent. Evangelical voters in South Carolina are expected to play a major role in the race, but the survey finds that only 16 percent of respondents cited moral and family values as their issue of greatest concern. Huckabee was the choice of 52 percent of these voters. Most polled selected the economy and jobs as the issue they considered to be the most important and they opted for McCain as their pick.

South Carolina's GOP presidential primary is this Saturday, while the Democrats will vote the following Saturday.

The survey sampled 1072 likely Republican primary voters and 510 likely Democratic primary voters and margin of error of 2.9 percent and 4.3 percent respectively.

A variety of polls of likely Michigan Republican voters late last week and over the weekend make tomorrow's primary extremely tough to call.
A McClatchy/MSNBC puts Mitt Romney ahead 30 percent to John McCain's 22 percent with Mike Huckabee at 17 percent, higher than he has polled in Michigan before. But the big story is the 11 percent of undecided voters. Romney led McCain by 2 to 1 among voters who cite the economy as their top concern, which is the biggest issue in Michigan. The poll was conducted January 9-11, and has a margin of error of 5 percent. Meanwhile, a Reuters/C-Span/Zogby poll taken Jan 11-13 shows McCain in the lead with 27 to 24 percent edge over Romney. Huckabee trails with 15 percent. This poll included all likely voters, which means that independents and Democrats were quizzed as well. Some Democrats are expected to vote in the open primary, because Michigan Dems were stripped of their delegates by the national party. The swing towards McCain is probably attributable to the independents and Democrats, because they are more likely to be McCain supporters, The margin of error was 3.4 percent.

Meanwhile, Detroit, Free Press, allied with local 4 (a TV station) and Selzer got very different results Jan. 9-11. Of likely voters, including Democrats and independents, Romney led with 27 percent to McCain's 22 percent and Huckabee's 16 percent. The margin of error was 4 percent.

The other Detroit newspaper, the Detroit News joined with WXYZ-TV to survey likely GOP voters Jan. 9-12 and their results show a squeaker: McCain leads Romney by just one percentage point (27-26) and Huckabee is a closer third with 19 percent. The margin of error was 4 percent.

Two of the most-watched polls greet newshounds on Monday morning, as the New York Times/CBS News and Washington Post/ABC News national surveys delivered the headline that John McCain has come back from nowhere to lead the Republican pack, and while Hillary Clinton is clinging to the lead, Barack Obama is gaining.

Both polls say that the economy has now become the dominant issue in the campaign, and the Times/CBS poll says – as did the Gallup poll we reported earlier – that the mood of the public is dark.

The Times/CBS poll also underlines that the race on the GOP side is particularly fluid, with nearly three-quarters of Republican primary voters saying it was too early for them to be certain of their choices.

In the Times/CBS poll, Clinton leads Obama 42 percent to 27 percent. This is about the same as their standings in the previous survey in early December, but the big difference is that the number of Democratic voters seeing Obama as electable, more than doubled in the last month from 14 percent to 35 percent. The Washington Post/ABC poll produced a different result, showing Clinton’s lead as a narrower 42 percent to 37 percent, a big drop from the last survey. Both polls have a margin of error of 3 percent. John Edwards is at 11 percent in both polls.

On the Republican side, McCain is way in front at 33 percent in the Times/CBS poll, followed by Mike Huckabee at 18 percent, a rapidly fading Rudy Giuliani at 10 percent and Mitt Romney at 8 percent. “Undecided” beat both Giuliani and Romney. This was not good news for either, but particularly for Romney who is locked in a tight race in Michigan, where his home state advantage (his father George had been governor) should have put this more clearly in his column. In the Post/ABC poll, McCain leads with 28 percent, with Huckabee at 20 percent, Romney at 19 percent (another difference with Times/CBS) and one time frontrunner Giuliani at 15 percent. Fred Thompson has 8 percent and Ron Paul has 2 percent

Gallup released a new public opinion analysis, one based on a Jan. 4-6 survey, showing only 15 percent of U.S. consumers saying current economic conditions are getting better while 77 percent say they are getting worse. Consumer expectations have thus returned to the historic low they hit two months ago, when only 13 percent said economic conditions were getting better and 78 percent said they were getting worse. The report said, "Consumer pessimism about the future of the economy is now more widespread than it was in March 2003 -- just prior to the beginning of the war with Iraq -- when 23 percent of consumers said the economy was getting better and 67 percent said it was getting worse."

Last week, Gallup said that the "New Hampshire exit polls show that economic conditions were a major issue for voters in the Democratic and Republican primaries" and cites Goldman Sachs' new assertion/projection that the U.S. economy is slipping into recession as a sign that "voter concerns about the economy are likely to increase significantly during the months ahead," particularly as the consumer credit crunch is slowly intensifies. The Washington Post today reported growing fears on the economy. And the New York Times said the possibility of a recession may prompt President Bush and Congress to push for a stimulus package. But the Times reported Sunday that some fear this might be too late.

A Rasmussen Reports survey found Romney with 26 percent of the vote, McCain with 25 percent, and Mike Huckabee with 17 percent. Last month, Huckabee, Romney and Rudy Giuliani were the ones jockeying for first place. But Giuliani has slipped from 19 percent to 6 percent, behind Fred at 9 percent of voters and Ron Paul at 8 percent. The margin of error is 5 percent.

The Detroit News/WXYZ Action News poll puts McCain at 27 percent, Romney at 26 percent and Huckabee at 19 percent, with a margin of error of 4 percent.

A poll by the Detroit Free Press-Local 4 Michigan has Romney ahead of McCain 27 percent to 22 percent, with Huckabee at 16 percent. The margin of error was 4 percent.

Read the full CNN/Opinion Research poll

According to this survey, both of the Democratic front-runners, Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama hold mostly double-digit -- and statistically identical -- leads over Republican presidential candidates Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani and Mike Huckabee, drawing greater than 50 percent support in each hypothetical matchup. The strongest GOP contender would be John McCain who is statistically tied with both. There was particularly bad news for Romney as 62 percent of those surveyed say they would definitely not vote for him in November. Similarly, 55 percent said they wouldn't vote for Giuliani and 52 percent said they wouldn;t vote for Huckabee.The survey was conducted Jan. 9-10 and has a 3.5 percent margin of error.

Read the American Research Group poll.

An ARG poll in Michigan conducted Jan. 9-11 has John McCain leading Mitt Romney (yes, the son of former Michigan Gov. George Romney) by 34 percent to 27 percent. Mike Huckabee follows at 15 percent, Ron Paul at 9 percent and Rudy Giuliani at a paltry 5 percent, where he is edged out by "Undecided" (at 6 percent). Margin of error is 4 percent. Not much point checking out ARG's Democratic poll since, due to the dispute over the state moving up its primary date, the official Michigan ballot only includes Clinton, Chris Dodd, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Uncommitted, and a write-in line.

Read the CNN/Opinion Research poll

This new national poll, conducted Jan. 9-10, shows that John McCain has made a remarkable 21 point jump since last month, before the Iowa caucuses and his win in New Hampshire, to lead the GOP field with 34 percent of support among Republicans. Huckabee, who won the Iowa Republican caucuses, is in second place in the new survey, with 21 percent. Rudy Giuliani follows with 18 percent, a drop of six points from the December poll, when the former New York City mayor was the front-runner. Mitt Romney is in fourth place, with 14 percent, Fred Thompson at 6 percent, Ron Paul at 5 percent, and Duncan Hunter of California at 1 percent.Margin of error is 5 percent.

Hillary Clinton appears also to have got a bounce from winning in New Hampshire, drawing the support is at 49 percent of Democrats, up nine points from the December survey, with Barack Obama at 36 percent, which is a six-point gain from his December standing. (However, a recent poll suggested she did not get a bump in South Carolina's upcoming primary contest). John Edwards is a distant third, at 12 percent, with Dennis Kucinich at 1 percent. The sampling error for the Democratic results is 4.5 percentage points.

Read the full SurveyUSA poll.

SurveyUSA has done a poll for seven New York State media outlets and found that Rudy Giuliani, on his home turf, is leading John McCain by only 32 percent to 29 percent, well within the 4.6 percent margin of error. Mike Huckabee is third at 12 percent while Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson and Ron Paul are waaaay back.

Read the full Pew Research Center report

The Pew Research Center reports that a survey conducted last month shows that nearly a quarter of Americans (24 percent) say they regularly learn something about the campaign from the internet, almost double the percentage from a comparable point in the 2004 campaign (13 percent). One striking finding was that the internet has now become a leading source of campaign news for young people, and the role of social networking sites such as MySpace and Facebook is a notable part of the story. Fully 42% of those ages 18 to 29 say they regularly learn about the campaign from the internet, the highest percentage for any news source. In January 2004, just 20% of young people said they routinely got campaign news from the internet.

Underlining the point that the women's vote is not monolithic, a Pollster.com review of New Hampshire exit polls showed that the subgroup where Hillary Clinton held the biggest margin over Barack Obama was among women not working full-time where she enjoyed a 25-point lead compared to her 3-point lead among those who do work full-time. Analyst Margie Omero said, "while this could be partly due to older retired women being in the non-working group, it's likely socioeconomic status plays a large role, too." She added: "In fact, aside from voters without a high school diploma, no other demographic group gave Clinton such a large margin... Clinton also had a stronger lead with voters earning under $50,000 a year, with those who feel the country's economy is poor, and with those who say the economy is the most important issue. The table below shows her standing with voters at the lower end of the socioeconomic spectrum."

Here's our wrap of the first round of polls in the next states that have primaries and, having been suitably chastened by the lessons of New Hampshire, take these with a grain of salt. (And if you want to check out a quick tutorial on evaluating polls, here are some resources).

The clearest message of the polls is that John McCain has got a big New Hampshire bounce in South Carolina, but Hillary Clinton so far has not.

Some of the polls reviewed here were conducted before the New Hampshire results. Two polls in Michigan differ on who is ahead on the GOP side and how close the contest is, while there is nothing of interest to report on the Democrats due to the fracas between the national party and Michigan about having moved up its voting date. We reported on the Michigan polls last night, and you can find them here.

South Carolina (GOP primary on Jan. 19, Dems on Jan. 29): A new Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll shows McCain is now the front-runner with 25 percent, followed by Iowa caucus winner Mike Huckabee at 18 percent and Mitt Romney at 17 percent. Fred Thompson, who has made clear the South Carolina outcome is key to his fortunes, captures the support of 9 percent, while Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul both receive 5 percent. The margin of error is 4 percent. Read the story here and the full poll here.

The Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Jan. 9, after the New Hampshire primary, shows McCain with a narrow three-point lead over Huckabee with Romney a distant third at 16 percent and Thompson at 12 percent. Although the margin of error is 4 percent, it's a big reversal since Sunday when Huckabee led by 7 points. If the numbers on the Democratic side can be believed, Clinton did not get a bounce from New Hampshire because Obama still leads her by 42 percent to 30 percent with Edwards at 15 percent. The margin of error is 4 percent.

An InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion survey conducted Jan. 7, before New Hampshire, had Huckabee leading McCain 31 percent to 21 percent, with Romney at 14 percent and Giuliani way in back with 8 percent. The margin of error is 4 percent. On the Democratic side, Obama leads Clinton 40 percent to 33 percent with John Edwards at 15 percent. The margin of error is 5 percent.

Florida (Jan. 29): The two polls here were both conducted before the New Hampshire vote. A poll by Datamar Inc. conducted Jan. 5-7, has Clinton leading Obama 40.3 percent to 28.1 percent. Edwards had 19.4 percent. The margin of error was 4.2 percent. On the Republican side, Huckabee leads Romney 23.9 percent to 19.5 percent with McCain at 17.9 percent and Giuliani, who has staked much on this state, slipping into fourth at 16.4 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent.

The InsiderAdvantage survey, conducted Jan. 7, still had Giuliani leading with 24 percent followed by Huckabee at 19 percent, Romney at 13 percent and Thompson at 8 percent. The margin of error was 5.5 percent. Among Democrats, Clinton led Obama 40 percent to 32 percent, with Edwards at 9 percent. The margin of error was 6 percent.

Read the full Gallup poll

A new survey conducted by Gallup between Jan. 4-6 found that public approval ratings of President Bush and the Congress still wallow at historic lows in the history of this poll. Only 32 percent of Americans approving of the job Bush is doing as president and a mere 23 percent approving of the job Congress is doing. The previous figures were 32 percent and 22percent, respectively. Three-quarters of Republicans (76 percent) currently approve of Bush's job performance, compared with 20 percent of independents and 7 percent of Democrats. Despite the Democratic majority in Congress, rank-and-file Democrats are not nearly as supportive of the job Congress is doing as Republicans are of the job the Republican president is doing. Only 27 percent of Democrats currently approve of the job Congress is doing, nearly identical to the percentage of Republicans saying the same

A Rossman Group/MIRS/Denno-Noor survey says the Jan. 15 GOP contest in Michigan is now shaping up as a battle between Mike Huckabee (at 23 percent), Mitt Romney (at 22 percent) and John McCain (at 18 percent). Further back in fourth place, Rudy Giuliani continues to drop (eight percent). The poll was conducted Jan. 6-7 and the margin of error is (a rather large) 5.8 percent.

A Strategic Vision Poll shows the GOP lineup in this order: John McCain 29 percent, Romney 20 percent, Huckabee 18 percent , Giuliani 13 percent, Fred Thompson 5 percent and Ron Paul 5 percent. The pol was conducted Jan. 4-6 and the margin of error is 4 percent.

ABC News polling director Gary Langer writes, "It is simply unprecedented for so many polls to have been so wrong." But he notes that the problems were with the Democratic race, not the Republican one (although nearly all of the polls reported here in Poll Tracker suggested that the GOP contest was closer than it turned out to be). Langer says: "In the end there may be no smoking gun. Those polls may have been accurate, but done in by a superior get-out-the-vote effort, or by very late deciders whose motivations may or may not ever be known."

John Zogby said "It looks like we all missed the mark on the Democratic side." He cited as one factor the finding of the exit polls that 18 percent of voters made up theirs minds on primary day which he called "an unprecedented number." He also noted that while his firm's polling showed Clinton doing well on Sunday night and all day Monday, the survey was based on a three day rolling average that reflected the big numbers for Barack Obama on Friday and Saturday.

Gallup's Frank Newport and associates note that, in past elections, there have been "significant shifts in national nomination preferences when the Iowa and New Hampshire results go against the conventional wisdom." Gallup says that typically in past elections, a Democratic candidate who swept both Iowa and New Hampshire emerged as the national leader (or, in the case of Carter in 1976, co-front-runner). A split decision between Iowa and New Hampshire has been rare in Democratic nomination campaign history during the primary era. On the Republican side, the 2008 campaign marks the first time in the primary era that the national front-runner going into Iowa (Rudy Giuliani in this case) has lost both of the early contests, hardly a surprise since the former New York City mayor chose to forego both. Read the full Gallup analysis.

Click here to view Frank Newport video.

Since Iowa, Poll Tracker has been reporting to you on the polls in New Hampshire and nationwide (as well as rankings of the reliability of the polls, and tips on how to interpret them). The preponderance of them pointed to a big Barack Obama surge, and an upswing for John McCain, although his race against Mitt Romney in New Hampshire was deemed to be closer.

Instead, as soon as the real polls closed, McCain was quickly declared a winner while the Obama-Clinton race looked close into the evening until she, too, was declared the winner.

And so, this will shake up once again the polls to come. In the national polls, look for the Clinton slide to start reversing itself. On the Republican side, USA Today/Gallup had Mike Huckabee on top at 25 percent, with a declining Rudy Giuliani at 20 percent and a rising McCain at 19 percent. Romney was way in back at 9 percent. Look for the Republican numbers to change.

It's a moment to be savored when real life provides a surprise in this marketing age. And when we in the press get our come-uppance by getting on the bandwagon. So, stay tuned. The explanations about what went wrong in New Hampshire (for the pollsters, that is) will be rolling in Wednesday and we'll post them here.

As the campaign rumbles towards the mega-Tuesday Feb .5 primary day, it will be particularly interesting to see what impact the New Hampshire results have on the polls in the next important state, South Carolina.

Of course, there's a good chance they'll be wrong.

Read the full Gallup analysis

Digging deeper into its poll data collected Jan. 4-6 in New Hampshire, Gallup came up with these headlines to explain why Barack Obama and John McCain appear to have done so well in the state. Quoting some of the highlights:

• Obama has overtaken Hillary Clinton as the candidate perceived as having the best chance of beating the Republican in November.
• Republican voters are equally likely to perceive McCain and Romney as having the best chance of beating the Democrat in November. They perceive Romney as the "new ideas" candidate, but view McCain as the candidate who is most able to get things done in Washington.
• Obama appears to have convinced New Hampshire voters that he is the candidate most likely to possess new ideas to help solve the country's problems. Fifty-one percent of likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters say this about Obama, compared with 19 percent who associate this characteristic with Clinton and 18 percent who believe it best describes John Edwards. That is the largest advantage for any candidate on any of the six character dimensions tested in the poll.
• Obama's only disadvantage comes in terms of getting things done in Washington, where Clinton is the clear leader, 49 percent to 25 percent. In an election in which "change" has become the dominant theme, a candidate's experience in Washington may be as much a liability as an asset.
• McCain has a significant advantage on three items -- standing up for what he believes in (his best showing on any dimension, at 43 percent), being in touch with the average American, and getting things done in Washington.
• Romney has an advantage on just one, but it is the one that most closely gets at the theme of change. Thirty-one percent of New Hampshire GOP voters say Romney is the candidate with new ideas to help solve the country's problems, compared with 18 percent for McCain, 15 percent for Mike Huckabee, 12 percent for Ron Paul, and 10 percent for Rudy Giuliani.

Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton across the final round of New Hampshire polls. Most polls show John McCain ahead of Mitt Romney, although one shows Romney ahead and another has McCain and Romney in a statistical tie. Note of caution: in Pollster.com's survey of polling professionals, the reliability rankings of these polls varied widely.

• Rasmussen Reports: In the Democratic race, Obama is leading Clinton 37 percent to 30 percent with john Edwards at 19 percent. Margin of error is 3 percent. On the GOP side, McCain is at 32 percent, Romney at 31 percent, Mike Huckabee at 10 percent, Rudy Giuliani closebehind and Ron Paul at 8 percent. Fred Thompson earns 3 percent. Margin of error is 2 percent.

• Reuters/C_SPAN/Zogby: Obama leads Clinton 42 percent to 29 percent, with Edwards at 17 percent. McCain leads Romney 36 percent to 27 percent with huckabee and Giuliani at 10 percent and Paul at 9 percent. Margin of error is 3.4 percent.

• American Research Group: Obama leads Clinton 40 percent to 31 percent with Edwards at 20 percent. McCain leads Romney 34 percent to 27 percent, with Huckabee at 14 percent, Giuliani at 13 percent and Paul at 9 percent. Margin of error is 4 percent.

• 7News/Suffolk University: Obama has 39 percent, Clinton 34 percent and Edwards 15 percent. in this poll, Romney leads McCain 30 percent to 26 percent, with Huckabee at 13 percent and Giuliani at 11 percent. Margin of error is 4.38 percent.

The latest USA Today/Gallup poll conducted in the days immediately following the Iowa caucuses, from Jan. 4-6 show that both winners out of Iowa -- Republican Mike Huckabee and Democrat Barack Obama -- have pulled even or slightly ahead in their respective primary races among voters nationwide. Prior to Iowa, Obama was mired in second position behind Hillary Clinton and Huckabee was tied for second place with several Republicans behind then-front-runner Rudy Giuliani.. Obama ties Clinton at 33 percent but John Edwards has picked up some of Clinton's decline by moving from 15 percent to 20 percent since the last poll. Obama's post-Iowa public image includes the important perception that he is the man to beat for the nomination.

Huckabee is now the top choice of 25 percent of Republicans, with Rudy Giuliani second at 20 percent, John McCain on the rise with 19 percent, Fred Thompson at 12 percent, Mitt Romney at 9 percent and Ron Paul at 4 percent. The Jan. 4-6 poll marks the first time in nearly a year that Giuliani has not held a significant lead on the national ballot.

The margin of error is 3 percent.

Read the full CNN/WMUR poll

In keeping with the flood of polls earlier today, the CNN/WMUR poll has Barack Obama ahead of Hillary Clinton 39 percent to 30 percent. The pair were tied in Saturday's poll. John Edwards dropped from 20 percent to 16 percent. Among Republicans, John McCain leads Mitt Romney 31 percent to 26 percent, slightly more than the poll's 4 point margin of error. Mike Huckabee showed some post-Iowa movement, edging ahead of Rudy Giuliani for third place, 13 percent to 10 percent. Ron Paul also had 10 percent and Fred Thompson was barely to be found at 1 percent. As in the other polls, the perception of electability that Iowa gave Obama has been a major factor in his gains. "The Iowa caucus results have convinced growing numbers of Granite State voters that Obama can really go all the way," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said.

An American Research Group poll released late Monday has Obama ahead of Clinton 40 percent to 31 percent and McCain ahead of Romney 31 percent to 24 percent with a 4 percent margin of error.

The numbers are particularly bad news for Clinton because it follows a Gallup poll that shows she has lost her national lead and two polls that show Obama opening big leads in another key early primary state, South Carolina.

SurveyUSA says Obama leads Clinton 50 percent to 30 percent in South Carolina with Edwards at 17 percent. Rasmussen Reports has Obama ahead of Clinton 42 percent to 30 percent in the state with Edwards at 14 percent.

In the GOP race in South Carolina, Huckabee leads Romney 36 percent to 19 percent, with McCain at 17 percent, Thompson at 11 percent, Giuliani at 9 percent and Paul at 5 percent, according to SurveyUSA. The Rasmussen poll also shows Huckabee way ahead, but with McCain as the number two challenger. Huckabee polls at 28 percent, McCain at 21 percent, and Romney at 15 percent with Giuliani and Paul bringing up the rear at 10 percent and 4 percent respectively.

Read the USA Today/Gallup poll

USA Today reports a just-in Gallup poll shows Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama tied at 33 percent in a national poll. That erases the 18 pont lead Clinton held in December. John Edwards is at 15 percent. On the Republican side, Gallup says Mike Huckabee has jumped into a national lead for the first timewith 25 percent, followed by Rudy Giulian at 20 percent, John McCain at 19%, Fred Thompson at 12%, Mitt Romney, 9%; and Ron Paul at 4 percent. Last month, Huckabee's support was just 16 perce.tThe margin of error is 5 points.

Spelling more trouble for Clinton, a Rasmussen Reports poll Obama now holds a 42 percent to 30 percent lead over her in South Carolina, another pivotal early primary. Edwards has 14 percent.

Read the full CBS News poll

This poll went back to the same group of voters it interviewed in November and found Obama leading Clinton 35 percent to 28 percent with John Edwards getting 19 percent. In the November poll, Clinton led Obama 39 percent to 19 percent with Edwards getting just 9 percent. The survey said that Obama's win in Iowa put to rest voter concerns about his electability. In the earlier poll, 72 percent gave Clinton the best chance of winning but 41 percent of those same voters now say so, while Obama went from 11 percent to 42 percent.

Another day, another round of polls in New Hampshire, this time indicating with more clarity that Barack Obama is opening a wide lead over Hillary Clinton while John McCain is maintaining a modest lead over Mitt Romney. John Edwards remains third in all the polls, while Mike Huckabee, to no one’s surprise, runs down towards the 10 percent range.

The Gallup Poll weighed in this morning with news that Obama now enjoys a 41 percent to 28 percent lead over Hillary Clinton with whom he was in a tie in its mid-December survey. Edwards is at 19 percent. Obama is doing particularly well among Independents, who can vote in either party’s primary, and according to another poll – by Rasmussen Reports – that is causing some problems for McCain because he not only is competing against Romney for Republican votes, but against Obama for Independent votes.

Gallup says” the largest shift came in Democratic voters' views of the candidate who ‘has the best chance of beating the Republican in November.’ Obama jumped by 19 points on this dimension between the two polls, while Clinton fell by 13 points.”

McCain leads Romney 34 percent to 30 percent, a reversal from mid-december when Romney had a 34 percent to 27 percent advantage. Like Obama, McCain has benefited by an increased perception that he is the GOP candidate with the best chance of winning the general election.

The margin of error in the Gallup surveys is 4 percent.

In other polls:

• A Fox News/Opinion Dynamics gives Obama a smaller leader over Clinton than most of the other polls, at 32 percent to 28 percent, with a margin of error of 4 percent. But that's a 7 point rise for Obama since their December poll and a 6 point dropoff for Clinton. Edwards has 18 percent. About the same percentage of Clinton and Obama supporters (roughly three-quarters) say they are certain of their choices. Among the Republicans, McCain leads Romney 34 percent to 27 percent, a 14 point gain for McCain since last month. Seventy-two percent of those who support McCain and Romney say their minds are made up. The economy and Iraq top the issues of concerns to voters of both parties, but there are sharp differences on health care (22 percent of Democrats rank it high versus 7 percent of Republicans) and immigration (16 percent of Republicans say it is important, while only 6 percent of Democrats cite it).

• The Rasmussen poll says that Obama is poised to win a “sizable victory” in New Hampshire while the McCain-Romney contest is too close to call.

• A new Zogby poll has Obama ahead of Clinton 39 percent to 29 percent with Edwards at 19 percent. McCain leads Romney 34 percent to 29 percent. The margin of error is 3.4 percent.

• The Marist Poll shows the Obama lead over Clinton at 36 percent to 28 percent with Edwards at 22 percent. Marist says (surprise!) "The number one quality Democratic primary voters are looking for in a presidential candidate continues to be someone who can bring about change." The poll names economy as the number one issue among Democrats. In the GOP race, McCain leads Romney 35 percent to 31 percent. The economy, security from terrorism, and illegal immigration top the list of concerns on the minds of likely New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary voters, Marist says.

• The 7News/Suffolk University poll, like Fox, has the Obama and Clinton race close, with Obama at 35 percent, Clinton at 34 percent and Edwards at 14 percent. This poll had Romney ahead of McCain on the GOP side, 30 percent to 27 percent. Margin of error is 4.38 percent.

• American Research Group has Obama ahead of Clinton 39 percent to 28 percent with Edwards at 22 percent. McCain leads Romney 35 percent to 27 percent. The margin of error is 4 percent.

Two big polls late Sunday -- CNN/WMUR and USA Today/Gallup find that Barack Obama has opened a big lead over Hillary Clinton and John McCain leads Mitt Romney, although by a smaller margin.

The USA Today/Gallup survey has Obama ahead of Clinton 41 percent to 28 percent with Bill Richardson fading to 6 percent. McCain leads Romney 34 percent to 30 percent with Mike Huckabee at 13 percents and Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul tied at 9 percent. The margin of error is 4 percent.

In the CNN/WMUR poll conducted Saturday and Sunday, Obama went from a dead heat with Clinton to a 39 percent to 29 percent lead. Edwards' support dropped from 20 percent to 16 percent. "The Iowa caucus results have convinced growing numbers of Granite State voters that Obama can really go all the way," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. Among the Republicans, McCain led Romney 32 percent to 26 percent, with Huckabee a distant third. The margin of error is 5 percent. For the full poll results, click here.

Another poll released late Sunday, by American Research Group, says McCain leads Romney with Huckabee at 12 percent. Obama leads Clinton 39 percent to 28 percent with Edwards at 20 percent. Margin of error is 4 percent.

Most polls in New Hampshire released today and last night after our last Poll Tracker round-up show Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in a close race just two days before the first-in-the-nation primary, and John McCain running strongly in the GOP race, although some surveys also say that Mitt Romney is holding his own. Here are the top lines of the latest polls:

• Rasmussen Reports: In the GOP race, McCain holds a 32 percent to 30 percent lead over Romney, with Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul at 11 percent, Rudy Giuliani at 9 percent and Fred Thompson at 4 percent. Romney holds a slight edge against McCain among conservatives while McCain has a wide lead among moderates. Republicans also see McCain as the most electable in a general election. On the Democratic side, Obama leads Clinton 37 percent to 29 percent, with John Edwards at 18 percent, Bill Richardson at 8 percent and Dennis Kucinich at 3 percent. Democrats see Obama as the most electable candidate in the general election. Both surveys were taken after the Iowa caucus but before Saturday night's debates.

• Concord Monitor/Research 2000: In a survey conducted post-Iowa, McCain doubled his support since mid-December and now leads Romney 35 percent to 29 percent. Mike Huckabee clocked in at 13 percent with everyone else in single digits. Among Democrats, Obama led Clinton 34 percent to 33 percent with John Edwards at 23 percent, Bill Richardson at 4 percent and Dennis Kucinich at 3 percent. The margin of error is 5 percent.

• CNN/WMUR: Clinton and Obama are tied at 33 percent with Edwards at 20 percent. The poll anointed McCain as the frontrunner with a 33 percent to 27 percent lead over Romney. Rudy Giuliani had 14 percent, Huckabee 11 percent and Ron Paul 9 percent. The margin of error was 5 percent. This also was entirely a post-Iowa sample.

• Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby: The sample for this poll was split 50-50 in terms of interviews conducted before and after the Iowa results were known. Clinton leads Obama 32 percent to 31 percent with Edwards third at 20 percent. Richardson had 7 percent. But not only are the Clinton-Obama numbers within the 3.4 percent margin of error, Obama has been moving upwards in each of these polls. On The GOP side, Romney and McCain are essentially tied with Romney at 32 percent to McCain’s 31 percent. Huckabee has 12 percent, Giuliani 7 percent, Paul 6 percent and Fred Thompson 3 percent.

• 7News/Suffolk University: Clinton leads Obama 35 percent to 33 percent but this poll shows the momentum clearly on Obama's side, given that he lagged by 17 points in an earlier survey. Edwards had 14 percent. On the GOP side, Romney leads McCain 30 percent to 27 percent, followed by Giuliani at 10 percent, Paul at 9 percent and Huckabee at 7 percent. The poll was conducted Friday and Saturday and has a 4.38 percent margin of error.

• MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon: Only partially conducted after Iowa, the poll gives McCain a big lead over Romney, 32 percent to 24 percent. A month ago, Romney was at 25 percent and McCain at 16 percent. Huckabee has 12 percent, Giuliani 10 percent and Paul 8 percent. Obama leads Clinton 33 percent to 31 percent with Edwards at 17 percent. Richardson has 7 percent.

Read the Pollster.com analysis

Pollster.com has been polling ... well ... pollsters ... to see which polls the professionals regard as the most reliable. The latest analysis looks at who trusts whom when it comes to New Hampshire. The results? In New Hampshire, the pollsters rated most reliable are ABC News/Washington Post (72 percent reliable), CNN/WMUR/University of New Hampshire (65 percent), CBS News/New York Times (61 percent), the Pew Research Center (59 percent) and the Boston Globe/University of New Hampshire (56 percent). The least reliable? Zogby International and the American Research Group.

A fresh round of New Hampshire polls – all based on different snapshots of time relative to the Iowa caucus outcome – suggest that Barack Obama is picking up momentum in the nation’s first full-fledged primary Tuesday, and that the GOP contest is a fluid two-man race between John McCain and Mitt Romney.

A new Rasmussen Reports poll, conducted on Friday, has Obama opening a 10 point lead over Clinton, 37 percent to 27 percent, with a margin of error of 4.5 percent. John Edwards has 19 percent and Bill Richards is at 8 percent. Obama has a big lead over Clinton among Independents who can vote in either party's primary. A high number of Obama and Clinton supporters say they have definitely made up their minds – 80 percent in Obama’s case and 73 percent of those who favor Clinton.

On the issues, 76 percent of likely Democratic primary voters list health care as “very important,” followed closely by the economy (73 percent) and ethics (70 percent). Iraq ranked fourth as a top issue (69 percent).

In the GOP race, Rasmussen says McCain leads Romney 31 percent to 26 percent, also with a 4.5 percent margin of error. Ron Paul is polling 14 percent, ahead of Mike Huckabee at 11 percent. Everyone else in single digits. The survey reported that a third of likely Republican voters said they could still change their minds.

American Research Group released a post-Iowa GOP poll, conducted Jan. 4-5, starkly at variance with all the others today, showing McCain with a walloping 39 percent to 25 percent lead over Romney. Huckabee clocked in at 14 percent. Like most of the polls, McCain far outpaces Romney in support among Independents who can vote in the Republican contest if they choose.

Similary, ARG gave Obama the biggest lead of any poll, putting him ahead of Clinton 38 percent to 26 percent with Edwards at 20 percent.

The margin of error for both Republicans and Democrats in the ARG survey is 4 percent.

Two other polls released today used samples that included interviews conducted before the Iowa caucus results were clear.

The Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll – which has Clinton and McCain narrowly ahead - was based on a sample which included 20 percent of post-Iowa caucus interviews. A 7News/Suffolk University daily tracking poll, which canvassed 50 percent of its respondents after Iowa, had Romney ahead of McCain among Republicans, and Clinton ahead of Obama but losing ground.

In the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby survey McCain led Romney 32 percent to 30 percent with a 3.3 percent margin of error. Huckabee, never strong in New Hampshire, rose slightly to 12 percent. Rudy Giuliani registered 9 percent followed by Paul at 7 percent and Fred Thompson at 3 percent.

On the Democratic side, Clinton led Obama 32 percent to 28 percent, with Edwards in third at 20 percent. Bill Richardson, who says he's still in the race, has 7 percent. The margin of error for Democrats was also 3.3 percent.

The 7News/Suffolk University poll differed from the Zogby results in the same way it did on Friday when it put Romney out ahead of McCain. The poll was conducted Jan. 3-4, with a margin of error of 4.38 percent. In an interview, David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said 50 percent of the sample was surveyed Friday after the Iowa results were clearly known, and that only a fraction of the 50 percent sampled on Thursday would have had a clear idea of caucus results.

In contrast to Zogby, this poll shows Romney leading McCain 30 percent to 26 percent, although it should be noted that even in the Zogby poll, McCain dropped two points since its last survey. Huckabee and Giuliani are tied for third at 11 percent, with Paul at 8 percent and Thompson at 2 percent.

In the Democratic race, Clinton leads Obama 36 percent to 29 percent. Paleologos said in the poll's new release that “coming into New Hampshire, Barack Obama has the cool wind from his Iowa win at his back. He’s climbed four points overnight; Hillary Clinton has dropped one; and O-mentum is in the air.” Edwards has 13 percent and Richardson has 4 percent.

Read the full Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll

In a poll of New Hampshire that ended just before the Iowa caucuses began, John McCain opened up a lead among Republicans while Hillary Clinton had a six point edge atop the Democratic field. However, a News7/Suffolk University tracking poll conducted Jan. 2-3 had Mitt Romney leading McCain.

The Republican contest in the first primary state is a two man race with McCain at 35 percent and Mitt Romney at 30 percent. McCain's strength is among moderates and independents. He runs about even with Romney among mainstream conservatives, but Romney has a big lead with voters who describe themselves as "very conservative." Iowa-winner Mike Huckabee, running without the same Evangelical base he enjoyed in the caucuses, is a distant 10 percent. Rudy Giuliani registered 9 percent. Asked about their strength of support for their candidate, 58 percent of McCain supporters and 52 percent of Romney supporters said they “will definitely vote for their candidate.” The margin of error is 3 percent.

On the Democratic side, Clinton leads with 32 percent to 26 percent for Barack Obama and 20 percent for Edwards.Among Independents, who said they were likely to vote in the Democratic primary, Obama enjoys 33 percent backing, compared to 27 percent support for Clinton and 21 percent for Edwards. The margin of error is 3.2 percent.

In the News7/Suffolk University poll, Romney leads McCain 29 percent to 25 percent with a 4.38 percent margin of error. Huckabee has 13 percent and Giuliani 9 percent. Among the Democrats, this poll is at variance with the Zogby survey on the size of Clinton's lead, which it puts at 37 percent to 25 percent over Obama, with edwards at 15 percent. This represented a four point gain for Obama over the previous day's tracking poll.

Read the full Gallup analysis

Gallup asked voters last month about their opinions on the front-loaded primary season which is likely to produce the winners on both sides by early February. The survey found that, at worst, most Americans are neutral about the front-loaded nature of the 2008 primaries. About half (49 percent) say that having the caucuses and primaries begin in January is a good thing and another 27 percentsay it is neither good nor bad, leaving less than one-quarter calling it bad.

Read the full Gallup analysis

Gallup historical data on national Republicans' and Democrats' presidential nomination preferences shows that the results of the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary have the potential to shift national preferences, sometimes dramatically. This has especially been the case when the Iowa caucuses or New Hampshire primary produced an unexpected result, such as with Jimmy Carter's and John Kerry's surprise wins in 1976 and 2004, respectively.

The Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll again showed upward movement for Barack Obama. Obama registered 31 percent cent support, the first time in this survey that he’s broken the 30 per cent mark. Hillary Clinton dropped four points to 24 percent putting her in third place behind Obama and John Edwards, who had 27 percent. All others are in single digits. The margin of error is 3.3 percent.

Mike Huckabee slightly widened his lead among Republicans, moving to 31 percent compared to 25 percent for Mitt Romney followed by Fred Thompson at 11 percent, John McCain and Ron Paul at 10 percent and Rudy Giuliani at 6 percent where he is tied with “Undecided.” The Politico reported unnamed Republican sources close to Thompson as saying he might drop out of the race if he does poorly in Iowa. Thompson denied the report in an interview with a Iowa television station.

In New Hampshire, a Franklin Pierce College/WBZ poll showed, in the Democratic contest, that Clinton leads Obama 32 percent to 28 percent with Edwards at third at 19 percent. All others are in single digits. The margin of error is 4.9 percent. Among Republicans, McCain leads Romney 37 percent to 31 percent, a finding consistent with the upswing McCain has been showing in other polls. Giuliani, who had 28 percent in this poll in March, languishes in third at 10 percent, with all others in single digits. Margin of error for both polls is 4.9 percent.

Read the full Gallup analysis

In mid-December, Gallup asked voters to play the role of the pundit and speculate about how victories or defeats in Iowa and New Hampshire would affect the chances of the candidates. Seven in 10 Americans, including 84 percent of Democrats, said that if Hillary Clinton lost Iowa, it would be "a temporary setback." Fewer than one-third would see it as "a sign that her campaign is in serious trouble." At the same time, most Americans - including nearly three in four Democrats - believe an Obama win in Iowa would be "a sign that he will seriously challenge Hillary Clinton for the nomination," and not just a "temporary victory" for him. The public is less likely to consider a potential Edwards victory in Iowa to be significant . Fifty-six percent of Americans, and the same percentage of Democrats, say that if Clinton wins both the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, another candidate could still win the Democratic nomination.

Gallup says Americans are divided almost evenly over whether winning the Iowa caucuses would be a temporary victory for Mitt Romney or a sign that he is a serious challenger to win the Republican nomination. Republicans tend to take a Romney win a bit more seriously, as the slight majority say winning Iowa would be a significant sign of Romney's strength as a challenger. Americans are also closely divided over the meaning of a Mike Huckabee win in Iowa: 51 percent say it would be a temporary victory for him while 46 percent say it would be a sign that he is a serious challenger for the GOP nomination. For Rudy Giuliani, only 28 percent of Americans believe that losing both Iowa and New Hampshire would be only a temporary setback for him, even though he has very publicly bypassed those states and aimed his sights at the Feb. 5 mega-primary day. Almost three-quarters say it would be a sign his campaign is in serious trouble. Sixty-one percent of Republicans say losses in both early states would be a sign of serious trouble.

In a round-up of polls that have come out so far today, the biggest headline is that John McCain has rebounded in New Hampshire to make it a close race on the GOP side in the nation’s first primary, and he has also made a big comeback in a new national poll. Hillary Clinton commands a big lead nationally over Barack Obama, but in Iowa and New Hampshire, the contest between them remains close.

• Iowa: On the eve of the caucus, a Reuters/C-Span/Zogby says the Democratic race is tightening again with Clinton and Obama tied at 28 percent with John Edwards at 26 percent. Among Republicans, Mike Huckabee leads Mitt Romney 28 percent to 26 percent, within the 3.3 percent margin of error. McCain and Fred Thompson are tied at 12 percent, followed by Ron Paul at 9 percent and Rudy Giuliani at 7 percent.

Rasmussen Reports offers up this cautionary note to poll watchers: “Those who want pre-caucus polls to tell them who will in Iowa are sure to be sorely disappointed.” Rasmussen notes that eight polls have been released in Iowa in the last week, with split results for the top tier candidates. Rasmussen recalled the results from 2004, when five polls released in the last week showed Democrat John Kerry ranging from 21 percent to 26 percent, slightly ahead of Howard Dean or statistically neck-and-neck with him. Kerry went on to pick up 37.6 percent of the delegates.

• New Hampshire: The CNN/WMUR poll says McCain has caught up to Romney for the first time in this poll, conducted Dec. 27-30, matching him for the Republican lead at 29 percent. Since mid-December, he gained seven points and Romney slipped by five. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 34 percent to 30 percent, within the margin of error. John Edwards stands at 17 percent with all others in single digits.

• National: Rudy Giuliani's once solid lead among Republicans nationwide has vanished, and John McCain -- whose campaign was regarded as dead in the water this summer -- is back on top with the GOP leaders. McCain has 22 percent support among Republicans, followed by Giuliani at 20 percent and Mike Huckabee at 17 percent, according to the Pew Research Center. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton maintains her large national lead over Barack Obama, 46 percent to 26 percent, with John Edwards at 14 percent.

Read the full Pew Research Center poll.

Rudy Giuliani's once solid lead among Republicans nationwide has vanished, and John McCain -- whose campaign was regarded as dead in the water this summer -- is back on top with the GOP leaders. McCain has 22 percent support among Republicans, followed by Giuliani at 20 percent and Mike Huckabee at 17 percent. Mitt Romney follows at 12 percent with Fred Thompson at 19 percent. The survey was conducted Dec. 19-30 and has a 5 percent margin of error.

Giuliani was counting on the 21 states that vote Feb. 5, but the poll indicates he is in a virtual tie with McCain in those states.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton maintains her large national lead over Barack Obama, 46 percent to 26 percent, with John Edwards at 14 percent.

Read the full CNN/WMUR poll

John McCain has caught up to Mitt Romney for the first time in this poll, conducted Dec. 27-30, matching him for the Republican lead at 29 percent. Since mid-December, he gained seven points and Romney slipped by five. Rudy Giuliani was at 12 percent, Mike Huckabee at 10 percent and all other others in single digits. The margin of error is 5 percent. McCain far and away gets the highest marks in voters perception of which Republican would best handle the issues of Iraq and terrorism, while Romney runs away with the ratings when the question is asked about the economy. Romney also has a big lead on the illegal immigration issue. The poll said 55 percent of voters have changed their minds during the course of the campaign and only 38 percent say they have definitely decided for whom to vote.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 34 percent to 30 percent, within the margin of error. John Edwards stands at 17 percent with all others in single digits. Clinton has a wide margin over Iraq when voters are asked who would best handle the issue of health care, a substantial lead over him on the economy, but a narrower edge when it comes to Iraq. As other polls have show, Clinton gets the edge for experience, while Obama has higher marks when it comes to bringing change. Forty-one percent of Democrats say they have definitely decided on their candidate.

Republicans believe Romney has the best chances of winning a general election, while Democrats say Clinton does.

While this poll mirrors McCain's upward movement in a 7News/Suffolk University survey released yesterday, it differs on the Democratic race where it showed Clinton in a stronger position.

Read the story on the the 7News/Suffolk University poll

John McCain has pulled ahead of the other Republican contenders in New Hampshire, according to this poll conducted Dec. 27-31. McCain gained 12 points since a month ago in the same survey to lead Mitt Romney 31%-25%. Romney had led in the December Suffolk poll 31%-19% over McCain. Rudy Giuliani is third with 14%, a three-point drop from 17%. Mike Huckabee, who never had any traction in New Hampshire, is at 9 percent.

A month ago, Hillary Clinton led Barack Obama by 7 points but now the poll shows her with a 36 percent to 22 percent lead. Apparently, Clinton has peeled away some of those undecideds from a month ago as that number dropped from 19% to just 12% this month. John Edwards comes in third with 14 percent.

The margin of error is 5.65%

Read full story on Des Moines Register Poll

Barack Obama has widened his lead over Hillary Clinton and John Edwards in the contest among Iowa Democracts, while Mike Huckabee sits atop the Republican field in the closely-watched Des Moines Register poll. The lead of both candidates is larger than than 3.5 percent margin of error in the survey, which was conducted Dec. 27-30.

Obama led with 32 percent, up from 28 percent in the Register's November poll, with Clinton at 25 percent and Edwards at 24 percent, about where both were last time. The poll said one of the factors favoring Obama was that Democratic caucusgoers say they prefer change and unity over other leadership characteristics.That's been Obama's theme while Clinton has emphasized her experience.

On the Republican side, Huckabee leads Romney 32 percent to 26 percent with John McCain the only other candidate is double digits, with 13 percent. That lead is about the same he held in November despite Romney's redoubling of his efforts to head off the Huckabee surge. McCain showed movement, as he has in other polls here and elsewhere, by increasing his support by six points since the last survey. Rudy Giuliani, who had been at 13 percent in November, fell back to 5 percent.