Poll Tracker

Now that John McCain has chosen a woman as running mate, Gallup reviews the bidding on the gender gap base on tracking poll data for the month. McCain leads among men voters by 48 percent to 42 percent while Obama has the advantage among women, 49 percent to 39 percent. Among independent white voters (Gallup says there is little difference on gender among blacks and Hispanics), McCain leads 56 percent to 35 percent among men while Obama leads by only 46 percent to 42 percent among women.

The Democratic convention has bounced Barack Obama to an 8 point lead over John McCain in Gallup's daily tracking poll conducted Aug. 26-28. Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 41 percent with 1 percent preferring "other," 4 percent "neither," and 5 percent having "no opinion." The margin of error is 2 percent. Obama's largest lead in the tracking poll at any point since he clinched the nomination had been 9 points in late July. Going into the convention, he was polling 45 percent and was essentially tied with McCain. How long the predictable bounce will last is subject to some different factors this year: the combination of today's announcement of John McCain's running mate on the heels of the Democratic Convention and the fact that the GOP convention starts so soon after the Democrats.

The themes and issues Barack Obama hits in his acceptance speech tonight should be a good guide to what he and his campaign feels it still has to accomplish, and while a speech to a stadium packed with 75,000 partisans may not be the place to get down in the weeds about his policy positions, a Pew Research Center poll suggests he has work to do in the coming weeks in building public awareness of where he stands.

The survey says Americans know more about Obama's personal story than they do about those policy positions. Sixty-two percent know a lot or fair amount about his life, but when it comes to his foreign policy beliefs, 48 percent say they know a lot or fair amount about them, and 56 percent say they same about his economic positions.

John McCain's life story is about as well known as Obama's. He fares somewhat better than Obama on public awareness of his foreign policy stands (54 percent) and just below Obama about knowledge of his economic positions (also, 54 percent).

Looking just at independents, 55 percent say they know a lot or a fair amount about McCain's foreign policy positions compared to 42 percent for Obama. Obama and McCain come out about the same on awareness of independents about their economic positions.

Our latest round-up of state match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates Ohio, California and Idaho. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.

• Ohio: Every new poll confirms that this is a real toss-up. Obama and McCain are tied at 40 percent with 20 percent undecided in an Akron Buckeye Pollconducted July 17-Aug. 17. Obama's "strong" support was 22 percent compared to McCain's 14 percent. McCain does better as far as support from fellow Republicans with 85 percent compared to Obama's 72 percent support among Democrats. Obama was backed by just 45 percent of those who had voted for Hillary Clinton in the state's primary. McCain had the backing of 70 percent of those who had voted for his primary rivals. In a finding similar to some national polls, Obama's own level of support is lower than the 64 percent of voters who say, generically, they want to see a Democrat in the White House. And again like national polls, this one showed an enthusiasm gap with Obama backers rating their enthusiasm for him 7.2 on a 10 point scale while McCain scored 5.7 among his supporters. McCain outpolls Obama 73 percent to 21 percent when rated on experience, and by large margins when it comes to handling the Iraq war and terrorism. There are no areas, including domestic, where Obama has more than modest leads over McCain. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted Aug. 17-24 had Obama statistically tied with McCain at 44 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 11 percent undecided in a. The margin of error was 2.8 percent. Generically, Ohio voters wanted a Democrat in the White House by 44 percent to 35 percent. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio was 50 percent to 34 percent compared to Obama's 49 percent to 32 percent. The gender gap was big here with Obama ahead among women by 14 points and McCain leading among men by 13. McCain led among white voters by 9 percent while Obama had a huge 89 percent to 3 percent among black voters. Obama had modest or statistically insignificant leads over McCain on handling the economy and energy crisis, while McCain posts double-digit leads on handling issues like terrorism, Russia and a Mideast crisis. A Columbus Dispatch poll conducted Aug. 12-21 had McCain leading 42 percent to 41 percent with 1 percent each for Libertarian Bob Barr and Ralph Nader, and 15 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.2 percent. McCain was doing better among fellow Republicans than Obama was among Democrats. Eight-six percent of Republicans backed McCain while 74 percent of Democrats were supporting Obama. McCain was also drawing support from Democrats who backed Hillary Clinton in the state's March primary. Republicans have won Ohio in three of the last five elections, but the margin of victory in 2000 and 2004 was 2.5 percent or less. CQ Politics' Election Forecast for Ohio is "No Clear Favorite."

Echoing other recent polls, a USA Today/Gallup survey conducted Aug. 21-23 shows that John McCain far and away is seen as more able to handle the responsibilities of commander-in-chief than Barack Obama. However, Obama has the advantage over McCain on a host of qualities and characteristics other than foreign policy and national security.

Eighty-percent of Americans believe McCain is more prepared to be commander-in-chief compared to 53 percent for Obama. Only 18 percent don't believe that of McCain, while 44 percent say Obama cannot handle those duties.

Obama leads McCain by 7 points or more in four different areas: caring about peoples' needs, ability to work with both parties to get things done, independence, and sharing peoples' values.

Our latest round-up of state match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Florida and Rhode Island (guess who's ahead there?) Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.

• Colorado: McCain leads Obama 47 percent to 46 percent with 7 percent choosing neither, preferring "other" or having no opinion in a Time/CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Aug. 24-26. The margin of error is 4 percent. A Suffolk University poll conducted Aug. 21-24 had Obama ahead 44 percent to 39 percent with Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr drawing 2 percent each and 12 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.6 percent. Suffolk's David Paleologos said, "Should Obama go on to win Colorado, it would almost force McCain to run the table with the remaining battleground states or lose the election." Other recent polls were tighter. McCain was in a statistical tie with Obama, leading him 47 percent to 46 percent with 5 percent undecided in a Quinnipiac University survey conducted Aug. 13-15 has Obama ahead of McCain 46 percent to 43 percent within the survey's 5 point margin of error. Previously, a Rocky Mountain News/CBS 4 poll conducted Aug. 11-13 had McCain leading Obama 44 percent to 41 percent with 3 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr, 2 percent for Ralph Nader and 8 percent undecided in. That result was within the poll's 4.38 percent margin of error. The survey found a "massive generational split" with Obama leading McCain 56 percent to 34 percent among voters under 35 years of age and McCain leading Obama 51 percent to 34 percent among those 65 and older. The state has gone Republican the last three elections (by less than 5 points in 2004), but the Obama camp thinks they can make it competitive. CQ Politics' Election Forecast puts Colorado in the "No Clear Favorite" column.

Although tonight's Democratic Convention theme is "Securing America's Future," A CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Aug. 23-24 says that Obama had a lot of work to do to close the gap with John McCain and foreign policy and national security issues.

• McCain leads Obama 78 percent to 58 percent on the question of who can handle the responsibilities of commander-in-chief. Forty-one percent of Americans said Obama was not up to that job compared to only 21 percent who said that of McCain.
• Americans see McCain as better prepared to handle terrorism by 60 percent to 36 percent.
• McCain's edge on Iraq is smaller, no doubt because so many Americans believe going into the war was a mistake, but he leads Obama on this issue 53 percent to 44 percent.

As pundits and analysts try to diagnose why Barack Obama is not doing better in the polls, a Gallup analysis of data from its tracking polls conducted Aug. 18-24 says one factor is that some conservative Democrats are slipping through Obama's fingers.

Obama's support among liberal and moderate Democrats has been holding pretty steady in the 91 percent and 78 percent range respectively, but his support among those describing themselves as conservative, which reached 72 percent at one point in July, is now 63 percent. The only consolation is that this is a relatively small group in the party.

In the rush of horse-race polls, we didn't have a chance to catch up with a Pew Research Center report - perhaps made more timely by Hillary Clinton's run for President this year - onwho makes the better leader - a man or a woman?

That title perhaps overshadows the whole answer because what the study says is that Americans believe women have the "right stuff" to be political leaders, they still have not achieved positions of influence and power proportionate to their numbers. As the study notes, women make up 17 percent of members of the House, 16 percent of Senators, 16 percent of governors and 24 percent of state legislators.

The survey, conducted June 16 to July 16, says 61 percent say men and women make equally good politically leaders, with 21 percent saying men are better and 6 percent saying that of women.

Barack Obama leads John McCain 44 percent to 40 percent with 12 percent undecided in a Diageo/Hotline poll conducted during two periods, Aug. 18-20, and Aug. 18-24. The margin of error for parts of the poll not aimed at sounding out reaction to Obama's selection of Joe Biden is 3 percent. Fifty-five percent of Democrats were satisfied with the choice of Biden while 28 percent were not.

The poll identified strengths and weaknesses of Obama and McCain. Seventy percent of voters saw Obama as a great deal or somewhat in touch with the "average American" compared to 61 percent for McCain. Two-thirds also though Obama had done and excellent or good job of presenting himself as a potential president compared to 50 percent for McCain.

But as has helped McCain and plagued Obama in nearly every poll that tested some aspect of the experience factor voters said McCain was more prepared to lead the country as president by 58 percent to 34 percent.

On the economy, seen as the top issue by half of voters, Obama led McCain 48 percent to 40 percent.