http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/ en-us Copyright 2008 Fri, 16 May 2008 17:11:13 -0500 http://www.sixapart.com/movabletype/ http://www.rssboard.org/rss-specification extensive memo to Republican leaders outlining the problem as he sees it. 

Today, he was brutally blunt in an interview on Bloomberg TV's Political Capital with Al Hunt. He predicted a loss of 20-25 Republican seats if the election were held today and said Sen. John McCain would lose the presidential election if he was perceived as leading a third Bush term.

Excerpts of the transcript follow.
]]> http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/05/davis-predicts-big-losses-for.html http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/05/davis-predicts-big-losses-for.html 2008 Presidential Election Fri, 16 May 2008 17:11:13 -0500
Interestingly, by not choosing between Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton in their tough primary battle until the nomination was all but decided, Edwards stands as a potential healer of the Democratic party. And by remaining neutral in the race for so long, he's also best positioned to be Sen. Barack Obama's running mate.

Here's the case for picking Edwards:

1. He's already been tested on the national stage and not likely to cause a distracting scandal.
2. He appeals to the same working class white voters that back Clinton. 
3. He favors Obama's new brand of politics.
   
4. He could put North Carolina and possibly other Southern states in play.
   
5. Clinton would probably support him. With more than 1,700 delegates in Clinton's pocket, Obama needs to at least get her tacit approval if he wants to have a unified party.
   

]]> http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/05/the-case-for-edwards-as-obamas.html http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/05/the-case-for-edwards-as-obamas.html 2008 Presidential Election Wed, 14 May 2008 10:26:58 -0500 announcement yesterday that he'll run for president as a Libertarian, he could actually play a very critical role in deciding the next president.

Most people think Barr's candidacy will drain votes from Sen. John McCain. Though Barr says he's not getting in the race to play a spoiler, that's clearly how he'll make the biggest impact. Hiring Ross Perot's former campaign manager doesn't mean he'll gather support anywhere near the levels Perot did in 1992 and 1996. But he can reach single digit support in many states. Ralph Nader was a spoiler in the 2000 election with just 2.7% of the national vote.

The one state to watch is Barr's home state of Georgia, where he could conceivably get five or more percent of the vote. Georgia has long been seen as part of the GOP base. However, when combined with the large numbers of black voters expected to come out for Sen. Barack Obama, Barr's candidacy could possibly tip the state's 15 electoral votes to the Democrats. That could be the difference in a close election.

One important wild card: Since Barr is opposed to the Iraq war, he might actually take votes away from Obama and not McCain.
]]> http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/05/will-barr-put-georgia-in-play.html http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/05/will-barr-put-georgia-in-play.html 2008 Presidential Election Tue, 13 May 2008 13:07:50 -0500 vowing to stay in the presidential race at least until next month, it makes sense to briefly handicap the remaining six contests.

In next week's West Virginia primary, on May 13, Sen. Hillary Clinton is the heavy favorite given the state's friendly demographics. In fact, recent polls show her nearly 30 points ahead of Sen. Barack Obama.

On May 20, the campaign heads to Oregon, which leans towards Obama. Recent polls have him winning leading by a comfortable 8 to 12 point margin. Also voting on the same day is Kentucky, which should be Clinton territory by a large double-digit margin.

Puerto Rico votes on June 1 and may have the highest turnout of the remaining primaries. Despite the lack of public polling, most analysts pick Clinton as the favorite.

The Democratic primary season finally comes to an end two days later on June 3 when South Dakota and Montana get their turn. Both states lean in Obama's direction.]]> http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/05/looking-ahead-to-the-remaining.html http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/05/looking-ahead-to-the-remaining.html 2008 Presidential Election Wed, 07 May 2008 18:03:26 -0500 basically over," Sen. Barack Obama moves into a very uncomfortable phase of his campaign. He's essentially locked up the nomination but his main rival, Sen. Hillary Clinton, is still in the race.

It reminds me of 1984 and 1988 when Jesse Jackson kept his White House bids alive all the way until the Democratic conventions. The question everyone asked all summer long was, "What does Jesse want?" He couldn't win, but he held enough power to be a voice at the table.

So, what does Hillary want? Here are a few things that Obama could offer to help ease her out of the race.

1. Help retiring her debt. Clinton loaned her campaign nearly $12 million since February and she'll want Obama's help in paying that back and taking care of any other unpaid bills.
2. A major policy win. Just as John Edwards got both Clinton and Obama to make ending poverty part of their campaigns, Clinton needs to show supporters she's had a substantive impact. Having her health care plan as part of the Democratic platform would appeal to her supporters -- and those of Edwards as well.
3. Input on the vice presidential selection. While Clinton might not want to be vice president, she has enough clout to make Obama pick someone who is loyal to her. That means someone like Sen. Evan Bayh or Gen. Wesley Clark could get the nod. It also means it won't be Bill Richardson.
   

Let the negotiations begin.

Editor's Note: This piece was inspired by discussions with several people, including Dan Conley who is also writing a piece on the topic for Salon.com.
]]> http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/05/what-does-hillary-want.html http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/05/what-does-hillary-want.html 2008 Presidential Election Wed, 07 May 2008 10:34:16 -0500
It's hard enough to poll primary races due to selection bias. However, several factors unique to today's election could throw off turnout models and make these survey's very unreliable:

• Overall turnout today is set to break historic records.
• The excitement of the race could change the number of late day voters who are never captured in exit polls.
  
• With open primaries in each state, large numbers of Republicans and/or independents are voting in the Democratic primaries.
• Voters participating in Rush Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos" may not tell pollsters the truth.
  
• Historical patterns don't mean much since it's been a very long time since presidential primaries in either state mattered very much.

If you really want to see some data, you're better off looking at Charles Franklin's final analysis of the primary polling.
]]> http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/05/beware-of-exit-polls.html http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/05/beware-of-exit-polls.html Polling Tue, 06 May 2008 16:18:11 -0500
After today's primaries, NBC News projects that there will be more undeclared superdelegates (264) and disputed delegates (366 in Florida and Michigan) than there are to win in the final six contests (217) through June 3. "Indeed, there's an argument to be made that after today, there are more delegates to be had INSIDE THE BELTWAY than out on the trail. So for all intents and purposes, today is the last shopping day of the primary season for the two Dems to impress the superdelegates on their issues."

Despite the proportional allocation of delegates, most analysts estimate that Sen. Barack Obama will add to his delegate count tonight. He's also been the beneficiary of many more superdelegates endorsements over the last month than his rival, Sen. Hillary Clinton.

Here are the latest delegate counts from the Associated Press and the networks:

AP: Obama 1,745, Clinton 1,608
CNN: Obama 1,745, Clinton 1,602
ABC: Obama 1,748, Clinton 1,604
NBC: Obama 1,745, Clinton 1,611
CBS: Obama 1,745, Clinton 1,603

According to DNC rules, the winner needs 2025 delegates. However, as Obama closes in on that magic number, the Washington Times notes Clinton's campaign is trying to "move the goal posts" once more. The Clinton campaign now says the number needed to win is 2,208, which includes the disputed delegates.

Said Clinton strategist Geoff Garin: "That's what we believe is the standard for deciding this -- who has the majority of the total delegates including Michigan and Florida to decide the nomination"]]> http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/05/moving-the-goal-posts-again.html http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/05/moving-the-goal-posts-again.html 2008 Presidential Election Tue, 06 May 2008 09:42:24 -0500
Based on the demographics, North Carolina should be a win for Sen. Barack Obama by a relatively large margin. However, if Sen. Hillary Clinton closes the gap to just a few points, it will be seen as a victory for her. If she manages to win the state, Obama's campaign could be mortally-wounded in the eyes of many superdelegates.

Indiana should be a closer race, though most polls give Sen. Hillary Clinton the edge. If she wins by any margin close to double-digits it will be seen as a big victory. However, if Obama pulls out the victory it could be the end of her campaign.

Of course, smaller wins for each candidate in their favored state would just mean that the race will continue. And recent polls suggest it's probably the most likely outcome.
]]> http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/05/expectations-in-indiana.html http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/05/expectations-in-indiana.html 2008 Presidential Election Mon, 05 May 2008 09:08:31 -0500
But what should be more troubling to Democrats is how McCain is also gaining the upper hand by engaging Sen. Barack Obama. In almost daily attacks, he's drilled the Democratic frontrunner on his relationship with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright and former Weather Underground member Bill Ayers.

There are two main reasons for doing this:

1. He's energizing a Republican base that's never really been on board. Attacking a Democrat is one of the best ways for McCain to prove himself to this group of voters.
2. He's signaled to the Obama campaign that the general election will be a tough one. By getting Obama to respond to him almost daily, he helps undercut the argument that the Illinois senator is "above the fray" and running on a "new kind of politics."
   

As First Read notes this morning, however, the "downside to McCain’s tough tone, of course, is that it's very un-McCain. This isn’t the same guy we saw in 2000 or even in the GOP primaries... Indeed, this tack can turn off folks (especially those coveted independents) as much as it might hurt Obama."
]]> http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/04/mccain-attacks.html http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/04/mccain-attacks.html 2008 Presidential Election Mon, 28 Apr 2008 09:47:47 -0500 Political Wire reader runs the math and notes that before the Pennsylvania, Sen. Hillary Clinton needed to get at least 63% of the vote in the remaining states to have a chance to win more delegates than Sen. Barack Obama.

Clinton now needs 296 of the remaining 435 delegates up for grabs (or approximately 68% of the vote.) In contrast, Obama needs 140 of the remaining 435 to have the majority (or about 32% of the vote.)

Therefore, despite her win in the Keystone State, the results have in fact made it less likely Clinton can win.

Considering that most polls predict Obama should win North Carolina by a healthy margin and both campaigns think Indiana will be close, the chances of a Clinton victory are actually lower than ever.]]> http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/04/pennsylvania-win-makes-clinton.html http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/04/pennsylvania-win-makes-clinton.html 2008 Presidential Election Thu, 24 Apr 2008 13:24:23 -0500 poll averaging, but will instead list the most recent polls here:

• Zogby: Clinton +10
• SurveyUSA: Clinton +6
• Suffolk: Clinton +10
• Quinnipiac: Clinton +7
• Strategic Vision: Clinton +7
• American Research Group: Clinton +13
• Mason-Dixon: Clinton +5
  
• Public Policy Polling: Obama +3
  

As in all elections, the results tonight will depend on turnout. In fact, the difference in the polls above are almost entirely on how they predict turnout.

Should Clinton win Pennsylvania by five points or less, it will widely be interpreted as an indication her voters stayed home. If she wins by double-digits, it will be due to her supporters flocking to the polls. To reasonably continue her campaign of convincing superdelegates about her electability, Clinton needs a big victory.

Meanwhile, as Ben Smith notes, Obama couldn't have had a worse few weeks. He's been on the defensive, had his worst debate performance of the campaign and seems more interested in running out the clock on Clinton than inspiring his own supporters. His attacks on Clinton over the last few days are an obvious attempt to get Clinton voters to stay home.

So after 15 months of campaigning, the Democratic presidential nomination fight comes down to Clinton's margin of victory in Pennsylvania. A 10+ point lead will be seen as a big Clinton win while anything less than five points will be a big Obama win. However, if Clinton's victory is between five and 10 points, the campaign continues.
]]> http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/04/what-to-watch-in-pennsylvania.html http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/04/what-to-watch-in-pennsylvania.html 2008 Presidential Election Tue, 22 Apr 2008 00:18:57 -0500 Real Clear Politics -- to smooth out the many results and hopefully make them more understandable.

But as I noted several months ago on Political Wire, there are many reasons poll averaging doesn't work:

• Surveys are in the field at different times -- often over several days -- so respondents are not always aware of the same recent events.
  
• Each poll typically uses different methodologies for forecasting turnout. 
• Polls have different sample sizes, yet when they're averaged they are usually are weighted the same.
  
• Pollsters use different screens to determine likely voters.
  
• Some pollsters use telephone surveys while others use robocall surveys.
  
• The wording of questions on surveys can differ which can wildly skew results.
• Some of the pollsters included in the polling averages are just not reliable.
  

While doing a simple average can eliminate some of the biases noted above, the technique may also magnify them dramatically. As a result, the polling average can be more unreliable than the original polls themselves.]]> http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/04/beware-of-poll-averages.html http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/04/beware-of-poll-averages.html 2008 Presidential Election Polling Wed, 16 Apr 2008 09:38:03 -0500

1. With the exception of a controversial ARG poll, most polls in Pennsylvania -- such those from Quinnipiac and  Susquehanna -- show no serious erosion of his support.
2. A new SurveyUSA poll shows most voters in Harrisburg were not offended by Obama's remarks.
   
3. National tracking polls show Obama holding a steady lead over Clinton.
4. Though she holds a solid lead in nearly every Pennsylvania poll, the Clinton campaign released a risky negative ad to highlight the controversy.

Chuck Todd argues we won't fully know if Obama has weathered the storm until after the Pennsylvania, Indiana, and North Carolina contests, but the early indications look good for Obama.
]]> http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/04/signs-obama-is-weathering-cont.html http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/04/signs-obama-is-weathering-cont.html 2008 Presidential Election Tue, 15 Apr 2008 09:51:29 -0500 ill-timed comments about "bitter voters" in Pennsylvania and the Midwest will ultimately play out in the Democratic presidential race. The comments certainly make Obama seem elitist and distant from the daily concerns of stereotypical Midwesterners. And Sen. Hillary Clinton correctly points out that both Al Gore and Sen. John Kerry lost the last two presidential races because they were "out of touch" with concerns of "regular" voters. Undecided Democratic superdelegates must be very worried.

But Obama does have one thing going for him as he tries to weather the controversy: Clinton connects no better with your average small town, rural voter than he does. She looks absolutely ridiculous trying to become the church-going, gun-toting candidate before crucial primaries in Pennsylvania and Indiana. If she continues to push this line of attack, it's more likely to backfire than succeed.

Update: At a speech in Pittsburgh today, Clinton continued her attacks on Obama as an "elitist" but her remarks were met with "quite a few murmurs" and then groans, according to First Read.
]]> http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/04/obama-clinton-and-small-towns.html http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/04/obama-clinton-and-small-towns.html 2008 Presidential Election Mon, 14 Apr 2008 09:27:02 -0500 recently hinted that he might break a promise and opt out of public financing for the general election because he's already "created a parallel public financing system where the American people decide if they want to support a campaign they can get on the Internet and finance it."

Meanwhile, Sen. John McCain, who has been badly outraised by Obama -- and Sen. Hillary Clinton too -- is trying to turn his disadvantage into an advantage by laying the groundwork to accept public money and chiding Obama for failing to do so. (Left unmentioned in McCain's rhetoric is that the RNC's general election fund is likely to dwarf that of the DNC.)

While forgoing public financing would certainly be an embarrassment for Obama, he might go ahead anyway. The most obvious reason is that he's already built a fundraising powerhouse that dwarfs his rivals. But he might also have a point about creating a better system of public financing.

For instance, Obama could easily turn a flip-flop story to his advantage by pledging to cap all campaign contributions at $250. Harnessing new voters, his popular brand and the Internet, he could promise to really build a people-based campaign. A million individuals could literally "max out" and feel like they have just as much influence as anyone else.

If you read Obama's statement closely, he may have even hinted at this -- although Marc Ambinder reports a campaign official says they have not even considered the idea.

It's not without risks, but if Obama did choose to cap contributions there's no way McCain could match him and still be competitive.
]]> http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/04/obamas-case-for-capping-contri.html http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/04/obamas-case-for-capping-contri.html 2008 Presidential Election Wed, 09 Apr 2008 16:03:19 -0500