While many think it's too early to pay much attention to national polls at this point in the presidential race, it will be very interesting to see how much of a "bounce" Sen. Barack Obama received now that he's wrapped up the Democratic presidential nomination. The strength and longevity of an Obama bounce could be an early indicator of his chances in the general election.
Early tracking polls from Gallup and Rasmussen already show Obama getting an initial bounce. As Obama is increasingly portrayed in the media as the Democratic nominee, conventional wisdom suggests his bounce will increase his national lead over Sen. John McCain into the double-digits. However, if it's less, it suggests Obama may have lingering problems from the tough Democratic primary contests.
First Read argues the bounce is important for Obama because "it will determine the strength of his hand regarding Clinton as veep. If his bounce is tiny and his lead over McCain remains in single digits, there will be a lot of whispers from pro-Hillary circles that he needs her constituency. If Obama's bounce pushes his national poll lead into double digits, then he can more easily dismiss the idea of adding Clinton to the ticket."
Meanwhile, Dick Morris suggests Clinton could actually still replace Obama on the ticket: "If Obama makes a mistake and begins to drop in the polls or some other tape comes out or a new pastor emerges with more racial rhetoric, Hillary still has her 1,639.5 delegates. Count on her to back Obama in public, but look for her aides and supporters, and perhaps her husband, to raise the question of whether or not the results of the primaries should not be revisited in light of the trouble in the Obama candidacy."
Early tracking polls from Gallup and Rasmussen already show Obama getting an initial bounce. As Obama is increasingly portrayed in the media as the Democratic nominee, conventional wisdom suggests his bounce will increase his national lead over Sen. John McCain into the double-digits. However, if it's less, it suggests Obama may have lingering problems from the tough Democratic primary contests.
First Read argues the bounce is important for Obama because "it will determine the strength of his hand regarding Clinton as veep. If his bounce is tiny and his lead over McCain remains in single digits, there will be a lot of whispers from pro-Hillary circles that he needs her constituency. If Obama's bounce pushes his national poll lead into double digits, then he can more easily dismiss the idea of adding Clinton to the ticket."
Meanwhile, Dick Morris suggests Clinton could actually still replace Obama on the ticket: "If Obama makes a mistake and begins to drop in the polls or some other tape comes out or a new pastor emerges with more racial rhetoric, Hillary still has her 1,639.5 delegates. Count on her to back Obama in public, but look for her aides and supporters, and perhaps her husband, to raise the question of whether or not the results of the primaries should not be revisited in light of the trouble in the Obama candidacy."