Polling: April 2008 Archives

Beware of Poll Averages

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With dozens of new polls out every week, it's tempting to use polling averages -- such as those used by Real Clear Politics -- to smooth out the many results and hopefully make them more understandable.

But as I noted several months ago on Political Wire, there are many reasons poll averaging doesn't work:

  • Surveys are in the field at different times -- often over several days -- so respondents are not always aware of the same recent events.
  • Each poll typically uses different methodologies for forecasting turnout. 
  • Polls have different sample sizes, yet when they're averaged they are usually are weighted the same.
  • Pollsters use different screens to determine likely voters.
  • Some pollsters use telephone surveys while others use robocall surveys.
  • The wording of questions on surveys can differ which can wildly skew results.
  • Some of the pollsters included in the polling averages are just not reliable.
While doing a simple average can eliminate some of the biases noted above, the technique may also magnify them dramatically. As a result, the polling average can be more unreliable than the original polls themselves.