With dozens of new polls out every week, it's tempting to use polling averages -- such as those used by Real Clear Politics -- to smooth out the many results and hopefully make them more understandable.
But as I noted several months ago on Political Wire, there are many reasons poll averaging doesn't work:
But as I noted several months ago on Political Wire, there are many reasons poll averaging doesn't work:
- Surveys are in the field at different times -- often over several days -- so respondents are not always aware of the same recent events.
- Each poll typically uses different methodologies for forecasting turnout.
- Polls have different sample sizes, yet when they're averaged they are usually are weighted the same.
- Pollsters use different screens to determine likely voters.
- Some pollsters use telephone surveys while others use robocall surveys.
- The wording of questions on surveys can differ which can wildly skew results.
- Some of the pollsters included in the polling averages are just not reliable.