Political Insider

Differences

2008-12-01T17:14:48Z

The most obvious difference between the roll out of President-elect Obama's economic team and national security team was that the former took place over three days.

But the more significant difference is that those named to the national security team each had a chance to speak while the economic team stood silently behind the president-elect.

Was this a concession to Sen. Hillary Clinton?

You Won, Now What?

2008-11-15T23:00:08Z

Memorandum

TO: Newly Elected Officials and Their Staffs

FROM: Taegan Goddard and Chris Riback

Congratulations! The polls are closed, the votes were tallied and you came out on top! With the hard weeks of campaigning barely over, you must remember that the election was not the finish line, it's the starting gun. The tough job of governing lies ahead.

Former House Speaker Tip O'Neill may have said it best: "It's easier to run for office than to run the office."

The reality for today's newly elected officials and their staffs is little different than the fiction portrayed in the 1972 film, The Candidate. Robert Redford starred as an idealist running for U.S. Senate. He never worried much about his campaign promises, because he never thought he would actually win. So when he did, the candidate turned to his manager and asked the question the campaign left him completely unprepared to answer: "What do we do now?"

Like Redford's character, the winners of yesterday's election must now put their campaign promises into action. It's not easy because winning a campaign is very different than running a government. The elected and appointed officials swept into our governments after the elections may find it hard to get the simplest things accomplished. A different approach is needed.

"We campaign in poetry, but when we're elected, we're forced to govern in prose," former New York Gov. Mario Cuomo once said.

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Turning a poet into a novelist isn't always easy. But that was our goal as we started to write YOU WON - NOW WHAT? How Americans Can Make Democracy Work from City Hall to the White House. We traveled from coast to coast -- from Connecticut to California -- interviewing officials at all levels of government to learn how they make our democracy work. From this extensive research, we identified the "Eight Traits of Highly Effective Public Officials." We show what others have done. These are the rules of effective governing, rarely passed down from one generation of public servants to the next. This is the unwritten code of getting something done in government -- and possibly making the history books.

Recognize government is not a business.

This concept, of course, runs contrary to nearly everything said, written or thought about government today. Officials at all levels of government and from both major political parties cloak themselves in this Holy Grail of political theory. Yet from the idea that citizens are much more than government's customers (they are it's owners) to the need for openness, government is not a business. Forcing government managers into private sector thinking usually causes more problems than it solves.

Rethink government's main purpose.

If a government function can be run like a business, maybe it should be one. Congress regularly funds agencies headed by new public officials who find the day-to-day work goes beyond what they expected. With management teams swept in and out over the years, most agencies perform tasks they should not. Some government functions are more appropriate for the private sector, some overlap with other agencies and some are simply no longer relevant. By using up time and energy, these excesses keep the officials from doing their best job.

Know what they want to accomplish.

Little could sound more obvious. After all, who would run for office or accept appointment to an important government position without having a clear idea of what to achieve or how government should perform? Yet stop a random public official in the halls of the Capitol and too often you'll find they lack what President George Bush called "the vision thing."

Change the old guard, the old culture - or both.

Putting one's stamp on a government agency - or even a legislative office - is never easy. Staff positions must be filled with people who share similar goals, even when too few vacancies are available. And new positions are difficult to create. The pay typically runs lower than comparable private sector jobs; and new public officials - lacking any similar experience - must negotiate the political appointments minefield, especially when higher-ups put on pressure to take their unqualified cousin for that last vacancy.

Take control of the bureaucracy.

Empowering bureaucrats is today's conventional wisdom in making government work. It is also wrong. Instead, top new public officials must learn to empower themselves. They must liberate themselves from the multiple layers of bureaucracy and arcane rules that block their ability to take control of their agency. The elected or appointed public manager is most directly accountable to the citizens and, as a result, should have the most responsibility.

Juggle many balls at once.

If there is one supreme lesson of which nearly every public official wishes he or she had been reminded before taking office, it's that time is short, and much of their time is taken by juggling crises. The crises can develop slowly, like a recession that decreases government revenues; or they can appear out of nowhere, like a scandal plastered on the front page of the morning newspaper. But make no mistake - they will come.

Manage their message.

A government official's communication skills are frequently overlooked. They're not taught in public administration programs or business schools, nor are they mentioned in the so-called management books. Yet regularly they make the difference between success and failure in public sector initiatives. If public officials do not manage their message, it will be managed for them.

Seek feedback from citizens.

American democracy, like most democracies worldwide, has evolved into a system called "representative government," which, in plain language, means, "Elect me. I know better." But times have changed. No longer is it sufficient to take office and check back four years later to see if you've done a good job.

Technology has changed government. Feedback is so easy to get, from constantly whirring fax machines to the lightening-quick responses of e-mail, that no public official can ignore it. They have a responsibility not just to put information out but to get input in return.

This does not mean that public servants should change voting positions with every new e-mail they receive. Without a core set of beliefs, any government official is worthless. It does mean, however, the concept of representative democracy has evolved, and officials ignore a willing public at great risk.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Taegan Goddard and Chris Riback are co-authors of "YOU WON - NOW WHAT? How Americans Can Make Democracy Work from City Hall to the White House" (Scribner, 1998). Goddard has served as a policy advisor to a U.S. Senator, Governor and State Treasurer. Riback has worked as a journalist for "60 Minutes," ABC News, and the Associated Press.

I.O.U.S.A.

2008-11-14T17:37:15Z

After decades of following an economic ideology that claimed tax cuts would pay for themselves, it's important to know our government now owes $53 trillion in financial obligations to foreign investors and to citizens in the form of pensions, health benefits, Social Security and Medicare.

This documentary is an excellent way to help citizens better understand the issue.

2012 Match Ups

2008-11-06T17:22:31Z

The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion sent out an email with the subject line: "Marist Poll: Matchups for the 2012 Presidential Election - FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE"

Inside was this message:

Did you really open this email?!
Haven't you had enough?!

You'll be hearing from us soon...but, not this soon.

Best wishes,
Your friends at The Marist Poll

Thought of the Day

2008-11-05T03:23:02Z

With Sen. Barack Obama on the brink of becoming the 44th President of the United States, it's interesting to note that the first 16 presidents could have legally owned Obama as a slave.

McCain Pollster: Ignore the Exit Polls

2008-11-04T00:44:34Z

As people across America seek information about Tuesday's presidential election, many will be tempted to seek out leaked exit polls. However, Sen. John McCain's lead pollster, Bill McInturff warns that they may not be very reliable.

From: Bill McInturff

Subject: Reading the Exit Polls

Date: November 3, 2008

As we have seen in previous election cycles, the exit poll results do leak early and that ends up influencing the coverage of the race before even the first state polls close at 6:00 PM Eastern.

However, we want to remind the campaign that the media's own post-election study of the exit polls in 2004 showed that the exit polls overstate the Democratic candidate's support. Therefore, we would discourage a rush to judgment based on the exit polls and wait until there has been a representative sampling of actual tabulated results from a variety of counties and precincts in a state.

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1. Historically, exit polls have tended to overstate the Democratic vote.

2. The exit polls are likely to overstate the Obama vote because Obama voters are more likely to participate in the exit poll.

3. The exit polls have tended to skew most Democratic in years where there is high turnout and high vote interest like in 1992 and 2004.

4. It is not just the national exit poll that skews Democratic, but each of the state exit polls also suffers from the same Democratic leanings.

5. The results of the exit polls are also influenced by the demographics of the voters who conduct the exit polls.

After the 2004 election, the National Election Pool completed a study investigating why the exit polls that year showed John Kerry over performing 5.5 net points better than the actual results showed him to have done. Their conclusion was that the primary reason the exit polls was that Kerry voters and Democrats were more likely to participate in the exit polls.

"Our investigation of the differences between the exit poll estimates and the actual vote count point to one primary reason: in a number of precincts a higher than average Within Precinct Error most likely due to Kerry voters participating in the exit polls at a higher rate than Bush voters. There has been partisan overstatements in previous elections, more often overstating the Democrat, but occasionally overstating the Republican.

We believe that this will hold true this year. The recent Fox News survey showed that 46% of Obama voters said they were very likely to participate in the exit polls, while just 35% of McCain supporters are.

In fact, even the 2004 exit poll report noted that higher turnout nationally and higher levels of voter interest in both 1992 and 2004 correlated with greater Within Precinct Error.

The overstating of the Democratic vote did not only occur in the national exit polls, but also occurred in the state exit polls. The 2004 exit poll report cited that the Kerry vote was overstated by more than one standard error in 26 states, while the Bush vote was overstated in just four states. So we should also expect the individual state exit polls on Tuesday to be more Democratic as well.

So given that turnout is expected to be even higher than 2004 and that Democrats are more likely to participate in the exit polls, this means we should expect greater fluctuation and variation in the exit polls from the actual election results.

The 2004 exit poll report also showed that the greatest error in the exit poll came in precincts where the interviewer was younger. The completion rates were lower and the refusal rates and Within Precinct Error was higher when the interviewers were under the age of 35.[6] Complicating this is that nearly half the interviewers were under the age of 35, including 35% who were 18-24 and another 15% were 25-34.

Conclusions

Based on the previous exit poll results, we should expect once again that Tuesday's exit poll data could overstate the Obama vote and under represent the McCain vote.

It is important that the campaign make sure the media realizes this, so that when the exit polls do leak, people do not overreact to the early exit poll data. Rather than looking at the exit polls, we should wait until we start seeing actual election results from key precincts and counties to gauge who won the election.

Greenberg Responds

2008-10-30T20:17:16Z

Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg responds to the memo released a few days ago by McCain pollster Bill McInturf declaring the presidential race "too close to call."

"Dear Bill,

I very much enjoyed your spirited note on the state of the race and Barack Obama's 'ballot position.' It reminds me how much I miss our times working together on the bipartisan polls for NPR and for many of our corporate clients. I miss in particular the banter before those meetings when your Republican colleagues fretted over their teenage children going off to Obama rallies."

Read the whole letter.

McCain Pollster: "Too Close to Call"

2008-10-29T01:39:32Z

Despite public polling showing Sen. Barack Obama with leads nationally and in the key battleground states, Sen. John McCain's top pollster, Bill McInturff, released the following memo suggesting the race is not easily predicted by polls. He sees the race tightening and says it will be "too close to call" by Election Day next week.

TO: McCain Strategy Team

FROM: Bill McInturff, Lead Pollster, McCain-Palin 2008; Partner, Public Opinion Strategies

RE: State of the Race and Ballot Position

DATE: October 28, 2008

First, let's be clear: This is a hard election to "predict."

The historic nature of the candidates on both tickets, the huge influx of unregulated money by the Obama campaign, the dour public mood, and the unique level of voter interest all suggest an historic level of turn-out, not witnessed in over 40 years.

]]> Our models/understanding of what is coming is therefore necessarily projective, but, here is what we know for sure:

The McCain campaign has made impressive strides over the last week of tracking.

The campaign is functionally tied across the battleground states ... with our numbers IMPROVING sharply over the last four tracks.

The key number in our mind is Senator Obama's level of support and the margin difference between the two candidates.

As other public polls begin to show Senator Obama dropping below 50% and the margin over McCain beginning to approach margin of error with a week left, all signs say we are headed to an election that may easily be too close to call by next Tuesday.

1. We are witnessing a significant shift across the battleground states.

The race has moved significantly over the past week, closing to essentially tied on the last two-day roll. These gains are coming from sub-groups it should be possible to sustain over the next week, including:

- Non-college men;

- Rural voters, both men and women;

- Right-to-life voters; and most encouragingly;

- We are beginning to once again get over a 20% chunk of the vote among soft Democrats.

Importantly as well, our long identified target of "Walmart women" - those women without a college degree in households under $60,000 a year in income are also swinging back solidly in our direction.

Finally, in terms of critical improvement, even as this track shows more Republicans voting for us than Democrats supporting Obama, we are witnessing an impressive "pop" with Independent voters.

As I said during our Sunday briefing, we do substantially more interviews per day than any public poll, but, given the shift we were witnessing, it was my expectation that by Tuesday/Wednesday multiple public polls would show the race closing. A quick glance at Real Clear Politics would indicate this is happening by today, Tuesday, and that's good!

2. It is not surprising we are witnessing this closing as we are finally having an opportunity to run a campaign that focuses on Senator Obama's record on taxes and his lack of experience.

We are tracking how much people have seen, read, or heard about a number of thematic elements from both campaigns, including the false charges about Senator McCain's health care plan, being out of touch on the economy, and the Obama's campaign charges about Medicare. At the same time, we are testing awareness of "Joe the Plumber," Senator's Biden's quote about his own running mate being so inexperienced it invites being tested by our enemies around the world, and Obama's proposals that will raise federal spending by a trillion dollars.

This has been the week where "Joe the Plumber" has literally become a household name. An astounding 59% of voters in these battleground states have heard "a lot" about this story, 83% have heard "a lot" or "some" about this episode.

The 59% "a lot" dwarfs the other stories/thematic elements we are tracking this week.

The campaign's relentless focus has helped strengthen our margins on the issue of taxes and broadened as well to the attribute of handling the economy and jobs.

3. Our opponent is being correctly perceived as the most liberal nominee in modern times.

In our tracking, now 59% of battleground voters describe Senator Obama as being a "liberal," a percentage that is higher than previous Democrat losers Gore/Kerry, and significantly higher than for President Clinton and President Carter.

A majority (54%) of voters profile as saying Senator Obama is more liberal than they see themselves politically.

As Senator Obama's profile as a "liberal" increases, it has helped further erode his support among key sub-groups.

4. Turn-out IS going to go through the roof.

Public Opinion Strategies has been using a 1 to 10 scale to help look at self-described interest in the election since 1993. In 1996, in our last track, 48% of voters described their interest in the election as a "10." In 2000, the last track was 54% saying "10." Remarkably, in 2004, our last track had self-described "10s" at 75% of the electorate.

You need to understand we are witnessing a day-to-day trend of serious magnitude as self-described "10s" increase in every roll.

Last night, 81% of voters described their interest in this election as a 10! Wow.

Here is the importance of this number: We have watched as turn-out has gone up in the last three presidential elections from roughly 96 million voters in 1996, to 104 million voters in 2000, to a whopping 122 million voters in 2004.

I now believe turn-out will begin to approach levels not seen since other comparable presidential campaigns in 1960 and 1968.

In today's terms, that could mean breaking the barrier of 130 million voters!

There is simply no model that begins to know or predict the composition of the electorate at this level of turn-out.

My own view ... and our own weights in our surveys ... reflect a belief that African American turn-out will be at historic levels, there will be a significant boost with voters 18 to 29 years old, yet the overall high level of turn-out will begin to mute the increase in the percentage these sub-groups represent in the overall electorate.

5. There is more elasticity in this campaign than is imagined.

We have merged all of our interviews over the last three plus weeks to identify undecided and respondents who "refuse to respond" on the ballot question. This can be as high as one out of ten voters, but is generally about eight percent (8%) of the electorate in battleground states.

These voters might generally be non-voters in most cycles. But, in this cycle, 61% describe their interest in the election as a 10. This is higher than the last track among ALL voters in 1996 and 2000.

These voters are older, downscale, more rural, and are certainly economically stressed. They are quite negative about the direction of country and seek change. They voted for Bush over Kerry by a margin of 47% to 24% and this partisan advantage is a critical element to understanding our capacity to "get" these voters.

They have significant hesitations about Senator Obama's experience and judgment.

Given an Obama TV media barrage we have not witnessed since the last candidate to run without public financing, Richard Nixon in 1972, and the daily drumbeat about Obama's chances, given their demographics, it is my sense these voters WILL vote in this election and WILL break decisively in our direction.

These undecided/refuse to respond voters breaking decisively against Senator Obama mirrors the pattern of the last two months of the Democrat primary season.

When they do break, I believe they will add a net three plus points to our margins.

6. I am becoming more and more convinced Senator Obama "gets what he gets in the tracking."

Typically a Republican candidate trails among African Americans on a survey by a margin of something like 78% to 14%. As a firm, we consistently warn our clients that on Election Day, they will underperform their polling margins with African American voters. If their tracking says 78% - 18%, they should expect to only carry 8% of the African American vote, as the Democrat candidate will typically carry more than 90% of the African American vote.

Senator Obama's numbers are different than anything we have ever seen before among African Americans.

In most polls, McCain is losing these African American voters by margins like 97% to 1%.

This means when you see Senator Obama's number in a survey, it already reflects his significant and full support among African American voters.

Obama's Closing Argument

2008-10-27T12:23:58Z

Below are excerpts from Sen. Barack Obama's "closing argument" speech (as prepared) to be delivered later today in Ohio. Not surprisingly, Obama essentially "lays out the choice in this election and details how he will fix our economy and bring the change we need to Washington." Campaign sources say he will be giving this speech at nearly every stop he makes over the next eight days.

Monday, October 27th, 2008
Canton, Ohio

In one week, you can turn the page on policies that have put the greed and irresponsibility of Wall Street before the hard work and sacrifice of folks on Main Street.

In one week, you can choose policies that invest in our middle-class, create new jobs, and grow this economy from the bottom-up so that everyone has a chance to succeed; from the CEO to the secretary and the janitor; from the factory owner to the men and women who work on its floor.

In one week, you can put an end to the politics that would divide a nation just to win an election; that tries to pit region against region, city against town, Republican against Democrat; that asks us to fear at a time when we need hope.

In one week, at this defining moment in history, you can give this country the change we need.

]]> At a moment like this, the last thing we can afford is four more years of the tired, old theory that says we should give more to billionaires and big corporations and hope that prosperity trickles down to everyone else. The last thing we can afford is four more years where no one in Washington is watching anyone on Wall Street because politicians and lobbyists killed common-sense regulations. Those are the theories that got us into this mess. They haven't worked, and it's time for change. That's why I'm running for President of the United States.

Now, Senator McCain has served this country honorably. And he can point to a few moments over the past eight years where he has broken from George Bush - on torture, for example. He deserves credit for that. But when it comes to the economy - when it comes to the central issue of this election - the plain truth is that John McCain has stood with this President every step of the way. Voting for the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy that he once opposed. Voting for the Bush budgets that spent us into debt. Calling for less regulation twenty-one times just this year. Those are the facts.

And now, after twenty-one months and three debates, Senator McCain still has not been able to tell the American people a single major thing he'd do differently from George Bush when it comes to the economy. Senator McCain says that we can't spend the next four years waiting for our luck to change, but you understand that the biggest gamble we can take is embracing the same old Bush-McCain policies that have failed us for the last eight years.

It's not change when John McCain wants to give a $700,000 tax cut to the average Fortune 500 CEO. It's not change when he wants to give $200 billion to the biggest corporations or $4 billion to the oil companies or $300 billion to the same Wall Street banks that got us into this mess. It's not change when he comes up with a tax plan that doesn't give a penny of relief to more than 100 million middle-class Americans. That's not change.

...

The question in this election is not "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" We know the answer to that. The real question is, "Will this country be better off four years from now?"

...

Understand, if we want get through this crisis, we need to get beyond the old ideological debates and divides between left and right. We don't need bigger government or smaller government. We need a better government - a more competent government - a government that upholds the values we hold in common as Americans.

...

So the choice in this election isn't between tax cuts and no tax cuts. It's about whether you believe we should only reward wealth, or whether we should also reward the work and workers who create it. I will give a tax break to 95% of Americans who work every day and get taxes taken out of their paychecks every week. I'll eliminate income taxes for seniors making under $50,000 and give homeowners and working parents more of a break. And I'll help pay for this by asking the folks who are making more than $250,000 a year to go back to the tax rate they were paying in the 1990s. No matter what Senator McCain may claim, here are the facts - if you make under $250,000, you will not see your taxes increase by a single dime - not your income taxes, not your payroll taxes, not your capital gains taxes. Nothing. Because the last thing we should do in this economy is raise taxes on the middle-class.

...

But as I've said from the day we began this journey all those months ago, the change we need isn't just about new programs and policies. It's about a new politics - a politics that calls on our better angels instead of encouraging our worst instincts; one that reminds us of the obligations we have to ourselves and one another.

Part of the reason this economic crisis occurred is because we have been living through an era of profound irresponsibility. On Wall Street, easy money and an ethic of "what's good for me is good enough" blinded greedy executives to the danger in the decisions they were making. On Main Street, lenders tricked people into buying homes they couldn't afford. Some folks knew they couldn't afford those houses and bought them anyway. In Washington, politicians spent money they didn't have and allowed lobbyists to set the agenda. They scored political points instead of solving our problems, and even after the greatest attack on American soil since Pearl Harbor, all we were asked to do by our President was to go out and shop.

That is why what we have lost in these last eight years cannot be measured by lost wages or bigger trade deficits alone. What has also been lost is the idea that in this American story, each of us has a role to play. Each of us has a responsibility to work hard and look after ourselves and our families, and each of us has a responsibility to our fellow citizens. That's what's been lost these last eight years - our sense of common purpose; of higher purpose. And that's what we need to restore right now.

###

McCain Off Message

2008-10-20T20:15:54Z

Sen. Barack Obama's campaign counted ten different themes used by the McCain campaign today alone -- none of which were about the economy. While the Obama campaign calls this "flailing," almost anyone would agree that pushing so many messages at once goes against all lessons of modern political campaigning.

The entire memo from the Obama campaign is below:

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1)      Joe the Plumber Needs More Publicity: ""McCAIN's MESSAGE 'today, tomorrow and every day forward,' per a senior aide: 'On background, we'll be talking about Joe.'" [Politco, 10/20/08]

2)      Joe The Plumber is Getting Too Much Publicity: "Joe didn't ask for Senator Obama to come to his house. And, certainly, Joe didn't ask to be famous." [McCain Campaign Rally, 10/20/08]

3)      Sounds like Socialism: "At this morning's rally, the first of three today in this toss-up state, [Palin] continued to call Barack Obama's tax plan socialist again couching it behind Joe the Plumber, "Barack Obama calls it spreading the wealth. Joe Biden calls higher taxes patriotic. Joe the Plumber said it sounded to him like socialism. And now is not the time to experiment with that." [FoxNews.com, 10/20/08]

4)      ACORN is Threatening the Fabric of Democracy: The RNC has advised three different conference calls today on ACORN. [RNC Media Advisories]

5)      A Foreign Policy Crisis Will Test A President: John McCain: "The next President won't have time to get used to the office. We face many challenges here at home, and many enemies abroad in this dangerous world. Just last night, Senator Biden guaranteed that if Senator Obama is elected, we will have an international crisis to test America's new President. We don't want a President who invites testing from the world at a time when our economy is in crisis and Americans are already fighting in two wars." [Excerpted Remarks for a McCain Campaign Rally, 10/20/08]

6)      Blame the Press: Top McCain Aide Mark Salter: "There has been a different standard for Obama than there has been for any candidate running against Barack Obama. And maybe this should have set off more warning bells with me. I think much of the media has a thumb on the scale for Obama. I think the thumb has been there the entire time." [The Atlantic, 10/20/08]

7)      Blame the Fundraising: Rick Davis: "There are reports that, just already disclosed, $3 or $4 million of Barack Obama's campaign funds just prior to the $150 million fundraising month were not appropriate. Now, I'd love to have that $4 million right now to put into Pennsylvania.    It'd be a good thing for our campaign.   I think it's a game-changer if I can slap all of that right on Philadelphia media market. It's an expensive place. And, yet, Barack Obama gets away with raising illegitimate money and spending it." [10/20/08]

8)      Divided Government: John McCain: "He's measuring the drapes, and planning with Speaker Pelosi and Senator Reid to raise taxes, increase spending, and concede defeat in Iraq." [McCain Campaign Rally, 10/20/08]

9)      Obama's Baseball Loyalty: RNC Press Release: "After repeatedly saying he would root for the Phillies in the World Series, Barack Obama switched teams while campaigning in Tampa today." [10/20/08]

10)   That Washed Up Old Terrorist: Rick Davis: "John McCain tried to point out how people should be informed about Barack Obama's background, including his relationships with domestic terrorists like William Ayers. People are going to form these judgments. It's great fodder for us to debate every day. I think it's fun." [MSNBC, 10/20/08]

Bush Goes to Broadway

2008-10-17T15:26:37Z

Will Ferrell, the star of the films Anchorman and Talladega Nights, will get his own one-man show on Broadway, titled You're Welcome America. A Final Night with George W. Bush, the New York Times reports.

About Joe

2008-10-16T19:30:17Z

It turns out Sen. John McCain may not have properly vetted "Joe the Plumber" -- the man he brought up more than 20 times in last night's presidential debate.

As the New York Times reports, the man in question "may run a plumbing business but he is not a licensed plumber. His full name is Samuel J. Wurzelbacher. And he owes a bit in back taxes."

"Joe the Plumber" probably now wishes he never had his 15 minutes of fame.

Update: It turns out Joe may also be related to Charles Keating.

Obama Memo on Tonight's Debate

2008-10-15T14:48:46Z

TO: Interested Parties
FR: Bill Burton, Obama-Biden Campaign National Press Secretary
RE: John McCain's plan to "whip" "That One's" "you-know-what"
DA: October 15, 2008

In tonight's debate, Chuck Todd of NBC News says, McCain needs to "figure out how to disqualify Barack Obama." Time Magazine's Mark Halperin writes, "McCain will have to produce a major memorable moment." The NY Daily News says the debate is "do-or-die for McCain's campaign." However they put it, people agree, John McCain needs a game-changer.

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Just this weekend, John McCain vowed to "whip Obama's you-know-what" at the debate, and he's indicated that he'll use Bill Ayers to attack Barack Obama. Even though Senator McCain has said he doesn't "give a damn" about Bill Ayers, his campaign has admitted that if he talks about the economy, he'll lose.

But perhaps the NY Times explained the peril of McCain's negative strategy best this morning when they wrote: After several weeks in which the McCain campaign unleashed a series of strong political attacks on Mr. Obama, trying to tie him to a former 1960s radical, among other things, the poll found that more voters see Mr. McCain as waging a negative campaign than Mr. Obama. Six in 10 voters surveyed said that Mr. McCain had spent more time attacking Mr. Obama than explaining what he would do as president; by about the same number, voters said Mr. Obama was spending more of his time explaining than attacking. [NYT/CBS Poll, NY Times 10/15/08]

Senator Obama is going to use the debate to discuss his plan for the economy. That's what he's been doing this entire campaign. And on Monday, he built on his proposals in a new Rescue Plan for the Middle Class. That's the kind of steady leadership and real change Americans are looking for - not John McCain's erratic handling of the crisis, his constant character attacks, and the same Bush policies that have failed us for eight years.

But after two debates in which John McCain didn't mention the middle class once - and after his campaign declared openly that they want to turn the page on talking about the economy - the real question is not how many attacks McCain can land in the debate, but whether he can finally communicate a vision to turn this economy around.

And while McCain has promised to attack Obama in the debate, every minute that he ignores the economy and the middle class is not just a minute wasted but time spent on attacks that even some of those closest to him have said don't work.

Inside the Bubble

2008-10-13T13:18:23Z

With just three weeks to go until the election, what are the chances history could repeat itself?

Inside The Bubble by director Steve Rosenbaum features an inside, up-close look at Sen. John Kerry's final, confident days going into Ohio, Florida and other battleground states four years ago.

No More Maverick

2008-10-09T02:24:10Z

Not mentioned by many pundits is that Sen. John McCain did not once refer to himself as a "maverick" during last night's presidential debate.

Maybe the jokes were too much.