Why Palin Was a Bad Pick

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The National Journal polled five states that voted for President Bush four years ago -- Colorado, Florida, New Mexico, Ohio and Virginia -- and found that less than 40% of voters in those states (except for New Mexico) believe that Sen. Barack Obama is more prepared to be president than Sen. John McCain.

In a political environment not generally friendly to Republicans, McCain's biggest advantage over Obama has been his perceived readiness to be president. He hammered away at this message all summer and kept the race reasonably close.

However, when McCain picked Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate -- a person just two years removed from being mayor of a town with fewer people than the Fenway Park bleachers -- he essentially gave up experience as a campaign issue. It's hard to argue that Obama is inexperienced when McCain's choice to be just a heartbeat away from the presidency has even less experience.

As the pollsters note, it's hard to see how Obama can get to 270 electoral votes without picking up at least one of these five states. However, it's equally hard to see how McCain can win all of these states without using the experience issue. By choosing Palin -- and giving up that issue -- McCain dramatically hurt his chances of winning the election.

Related: Palin's favorability ratings tumble.


    Comments

  1. Was it a political pick? Yes. Bad? Don't think so. If anything it was a trap.

    McCain didn't give up the experience issue. He put it squarely in the Obama camp and it has been too juicy for Democrats to leave alone.

    There is no upside to discussing Palin's experience. If the argument is that she does not have a enough experience to be president then we've been compelled to compare Obama's resume to Palin's. So now we are comparing the Veep of one party to the Presidential candidate of the other. How did that happen?!

    Let's stipulate that both resumes are light and that Obama has equal or even a little more than the governor (a stretch but stay with me). What Obama has just done by algebraic logic is say that, yes, experience is important, and yes, McCain has more experience than Obama.

    I don't understand why they are even talking about this. And while this is going on McCain has usurped the change message.

    Posted by: KeepMovingForward Author Profile Page | September 19, 2008 10:31 AM

  2. "So now we are comparing the Veep of one party to the Presidential candidate of the other. How did that happen?!"

    It happened because Palin is running in the number two spot with the oldest nominee in modern history, and one who has had three bouts with cancer. Reagan was nearly as old but enjoyed much better physical health (aside from dementia toward the end) than McCain; Reagan was 69, not 72, when elected.

    If McCain were elected and then elected to a second term, he would be 82 at the end of the second term. It's not inconceivable that someone with his health history might be disabled or deceased, which makes the potential succession of Palin more relevant than, say, that of Geraldine Ferraro, who ran with a relatively spry Walter Mondale, or of Joseph Biden, who is roughly twenty years Obama's senior.

    Therefore, voters must compare not only McCain but also Palin to Obama, whereas Biden has little chance of becoming president. Yes, LBJ was older than JFK and became president by means of an assassination, but I'd like to think that any President who dies today in office does so due to natural causes and not violence.

    Posted by: PassatDoc Author Profile Page | September 19, 2008 12:15 PM

  3. Obama has a significant lead in Colorado by as much as 10 points and New Mexico (by as much as 8 points (with both polls being more than a week post republican convention so the Sarah bounce is included). And Obama is leading in some, but not all, of the polls in Virginia and Ohio. If polls are all that relevant, as is suggested by the thrust of the article, it makes one wonder why he would omit such apparently relevant information from this article?

    Posted by: NVxprt Author Profile Page | September 19, 2008 12:36 PM

  4. "found that less than 40% of voters in those states (except for New Mexico) believe that Sen. Barack Obama is more prepared to be president than Sen. John McCain."

    So this means that more than 60% believe that Sen. John McCain is more prepared to be president. How is this related to Palin? Last I checked Palin was running for Vice President, not President. This false analogy that keeps being made is, well, false.

    There's no connection here between "Palin being a bad pick" and "More than 60% of people in these states believe that Sen. John McCain is better prepared to be president."

    Posted by: AntonX2 Author Profile Page | September 19, 2008 2:10 PM

  5. This hurts McCain because it damaged his credibility.
    Iif 60% of the people polled believe that McCain is better prepared to be President, then he shoudl be receiving 60% of the vote. Since Obama is either ahead of McCain or even with him in that same poll, they are voting for the less prepaired person anyway. This means they the people polled are taking other factors into consideration. This says to me that McCain's credibility has been damaged.

    Posted by: Irisdavenport Author Profile Page | September 19, 2008 4:07 PM

  6. I'm not so sure it was a bad pick. I'd agree that it won't give McCain the win, but Palin will help lower down on the ballot. She's generating a lot of enthusiasm among the crazies. That will help turnout and keep the congressional elections close. Before Palin, I thought the dems had a chance at getting the filibuster proof majority they need in the Senate. Now, I'm sure they won't get it. Through the choice of Palin, McCain will be better positioned to obstruct Obama's plans when he's back in the Senate.

    Posted by: fostert Author Profile Page | September 19, 2008 4:46 PM

  7. It's 1984 all over again.

    For a few weeks after she was picked by Walter Mondale, Geraldine Ferraro electrified the country and breathed new life into the moribund Mondale campaign.

    Then came the backlash -- whispers about her husband's business dealings and rumours of organized crime links. Between that and her record as a "backbencher" in the New York delegation, Ferraro's favorable rating plummeted, Mondale's judgment was questioned...

    ...and the ticket lost.

    Will McCain lose 49 states this time? No. But other than that, there are many parallels.

    Posted by: helzapoppn Author Profile Page | September 19, 2008 5:44 PM

  8. McCain's judgment is fair game for comment re: Palin. To pick someone for shock and PR value, and completely ignore their obvious lack of qualification for the office of Vice President, let alone President, is a slap in the face to the American voter. Never mind that the novelty has yet to wear off on many. It will.

    Her carefully packaged statements, and falling off her horse when asked something for which she has not been carefully prepped, are painful to watch. Even keeping in mind Adlai Stevenson's famous remark that the ranks of "thinking Americans" were not enough to get him elected, one could be forgiven for cringing at Palin's plastic spoon statements. Her claim to know foreign affairs because you can see Siberia from Nome makes Bush's looking into Putin's eyes and seeing his soul sound positively thoughtful, an adjective not normally used when assessing statements by Bush.

    Palin is a joke in bad taste, and the fact that millions are falling for it makes it no less so. McCain's willingness to make the joke on us is cause for serious concern as to whether or not he is capable of making rational decisions that affect the country. It is a gamble America cannot afford to take.

    Posted by: DDorf Author Profile Page | September 20, 2008 12:08 PM

  9. McCain is 72, and has recurrent melanoma. There is about a 35% chance of mortality during the next couple years from this very aggressive tumor. He has not really released his medical records and hasn't submitted to a head MRI which would tell whether he has brain metastases (thus possibly accounting for for some of the bizarre lapsesd and gaffes seen recently).

    If he has recurrent melanoma and is elected, say hello to President Palin and her First Dude. And goodbye America as we knew it.

    Posted by: Bob Author Profile Page | September 20, 2008 6:28 PM

  10. I fear that most are underestimating Governor Palin, and I don't understand how the "heartbeat away from the presidency" argument helps Senator Obama. We're back to the experience issue.

    If an experienced McCain dies in office we get an inexperienced Gov. Palin. The McCain campaign then says Palin has more experience than Obama and we have that skirmish again.

    At best Obama comes out even with Palin in experience. Independents will equate a community organizer with small town mayor and a senator arguably matches up with a governor.

    So what has been gained? Knowledge that Obama is as experienced as Palin, which is less than that of McCain.

    Bring on the debates for separation.

    Posted by: KeepMovingForward Author Profile Page | September 20, 2008 11:29 PM

  11. Palin's apalling lack of judgement, experience and general knowledge are relevant precisely because they reflect more astonishingly bad judgement by McCain.

    The fact that his bad pick was probably ego based doesn't help much. He reminds me of the kind of elderly person who becomes angry and defensive when confronted with the fact that they should no longer drive and who refuse to quit driving until they plow down innocent people whose misfortune it is to be in their way.

    McCain still thinks he can lead, but his gaffes, bad choices, obvious mistatements and selection of Palin should give even the Republican base pause.

    He didn't know who the leader of Spain is - but what's worse is that his ego wouldn't allow him to admit and ask for clarification and his staff turned a gaffe into saber-rattling to cover for him.

    From listening to the tape of that radio interview, it seemed obvious that he was having trouble with the interviewer's accent. The problem is that he was so insecure about appearing sharp and ready that he just plowed along, guessing at what he was being asked instead of finding out before he spoke. That is not good and it does not bode well for a McCain presidency.

    He doesn't know Shia from Sunni, but wants accolades as an experienced leader for the unending war in Iraq.

    He jokes about bombing countries we are having problems with.

    He repeatedly refers to countries which no longer exist in the present tense.

    He says he knows how to catch Osama Bin Laden but misses the fact that saying you know how to catch the worst terrorist we have ever faced but won't share your knowledge unless you get what you want seems bizarrely petulant and self-aggrandizing.

    He threatens to fire the heads of wrong organizations, (FEC instead of SEC).

    He contradicts himself regularly to the point where he doesn't even seem to know what he said yesterday, or last week, let alone 20 years ago.

    He says completely stupid things. Saying that nobody in America knows as much about energy as Sarah Palin was stupid. It was discredited almost as soon as he said it. And he's been doing it more lately.

    Rambling on about how fish like oil rigs as proof of some sort of environmentalism just made him look old and feeble.

    Trying to blame Obama for Wall Street is another example of extreme stupidity, and Obama immediately made him look stupid for saying it.

    McCain is undermining himself every time he opens his mouth. He appears old, tired, cranky, out of touch, demanding, and untruthful. That makes Palin's lack of experience relevant.

    It also makes her look good on the trail. Next to McCain, she looks energetic and on message. She also looks increasingly dishonest, corrupt and ambitious, which, when juxtaposed next to McCain's increasingly doddering appearence, is just breathtakingly frightening for pretty much everyone not a hard-core Republican.

    That's why their numbers have dropped so much, so fast.

    McCain/Palin = Unstable/unable

    Posted by: roooth Author Profile Page | September 21, 2008 12:52 PM

  12. Get real. Palin was the perfect choice she certainly shored up the fractured GOP Conservative base, enthused them in a way they have not been excited since Reagan and she has flipped the script. Palin is Obama. Amazingly enough we have found the female version of Barak Obama, except her story is much more believable, more appealing and more down home American then his, I mean with the black male father abondoning the white mother, for shame that is not what we are trying to instill in American youth is it? The audacity of Barack Obama and him using his race as an ability to game the system playing his Black half to achieve goals available to him under the racial quota system called affirmative action. Obama is the protege of Saul Alinsky, he is a marxist revolutionary that will bring Change (Socialism) to this country but it is not the change that the vast majority of hard working blue collar Americans want of course the gimme, gimme youngsters in America want that social welfare but the older Americans the majority of Americans understand the danger in going down that path. Sarah Palin is the future, as unlikely as it was that McCain would have picked her, well lets just see what happens after the Debates shall we.

    Posted by: tomnbeverly Author Profile Page | September 21, 2008 8:59 PM

  13. The Palin pick was a good short term pick, but a really bad long term one. Palin has energized the conservative base but in picking Palin, he's weakened his argument that his experience gives him better judgment.

    McCain's experience argument was always flawed but only those who use logical thinking rather than partisan bias to assess the candidates would have realized the flaw. Obama's actually been saying it the whole time - McCain voted with Bush 90% of the time. You can't use Bush's policy as your own policy and simultaneously condemn him for his policies - say that to the wrong doctor and he'll give you medication for it. Here's the thing - it's not just that McCain approved of Bush's ideas that's most problematic about McCain. It's the fact that he doesn't see anything wrong with continuing policies that are CLEARLY NOT WORKING. It's one thing to support a policy that eventually failed - it happens, humans aren't perfect. It's quite another when your years of experience hasn't been enough to allow you to make the obvious determination that those policies you supported are not the solution for the problems we face this time around.

    The ability to recognize problems is a basic requirement of ANY leader. An exceptional leader is one with the ability to anticipate problems before they occur and to make the adjustments that best meet the needs of those he/she serves. McCain's comment about the economic fundamentals highlighted his inability to evaluate the presence and severity of a problem. But this should already have been highlighted to everyone by his choice to re-use Bush's policies. Then in his attempt to offer a solution, he grasped at straws instead of trying to be pragmatic. Suggesting a commission be formed to handle it was the worst thing he could say. And it begs the question - did McCain's economic advisers not realize how bad the situation was? These men will likely be the ones having McCain's ear if were to take the White house. If he can't even depend on them for a clue, we can't depend on any of them. Then he suggested he would have fired Cox - next big mistake. Cox was only in charge for a short time and the problem is CLEARLY the result of a long term problem - so where's the logic in firing the man? Where is the reason for firing the man? IN FACT, McCain and his economic advisers are MORE RESPONSIBLE than Cox for this mess - they engineered the deregulation that limited the power of the SEC. You can't tie up your own security guard and then blamed him when he fails to stop the robbers.

    Has Palin behaved like a maverick? Only when it was politically necessary - and that's the problem. Her record shows that she plays the political roles well enough when needed. But it's clearly not her true nature to oppose big government spending. In fact her record shows that it's quite the opposite. She tends to bend the rules very readily - in a sense, you could argue that thus far, she has managed to 'deregulate' the governorship position when it comes to procedure and law. That's always how law breaking starts. And that's how politicians end up in hot water or worse. Add to this the fact that she, a christian, is capable of telling half-truths and lies repeatedly without flinching. No real christian can do that. Then there's the experience factor. Is she more experienced than Obama? Only if you take her role as governor at face value, without actually looking specifically at just how involved she is in the areas that require real knowledge. In reality, a governor's team of advisers are actually the ones coming up with solutions and drawing up draft proposals and balancing budgets; the governor just makes an educated guess (hopefully based on the suggestions of those around him/her with the educated background that allows them to predict long term outcomes) and approves the measures. Governors only get deeply involved if they happen to have training in economics and law. You need relevant EDUCATION to make an EDUCATED guess as to the correct course of action! And when it comes to financial measures, anyone can be wasteful and spend money when there's a lot of it lying around - true prudence comes from knowledge gained through education.

    But does being a governor mean that she's a good governor? ABSOLUTELY NOT. If it did, governors would be elected for life. Good governance is only apparent over time - Palin just started. So far she's on the wrong track on several levels. Palin has the confidence to assume leadership of her community, but even there she struggles to lead within the limitations of the law. That makes her a bad leader, in much the same way as George Bush is.

    Posted by: Pragmatix Author Profile Page | September 22, 2008 1:51 AM

  14. Can anyone tell me, what is the difference, between Sarah Palin and Dana Perino (White House press sec.)? The Mccain campaign makes no bones about this fact; “we need to get her up to speed on foreign affairs”. Is not this, which is done for a new White House press sec?
    Should we not expect more from a vice presidential candidate, maybe a personal point of view? I do not believe, it could be possible, to conduct anything more than a press briefing littered with talking points, should one be willing, to attempt to conduct, any type of a meaningful conversation with Mrs.Palin.
    Oddly enough, I now see that Mccain is a maverick after all. Mccain has selected for his running mate, not a vice presidential candidate, but both, the least qualified female imaginable from his party, and a color-man (to use a sportcasting term - a Yes Mamm).
    Revolutionary, not a vice presidential aspirant, but a talking head. Absolutely disappointing and truly sad.
    Mccain choice for running mate leaves me to ponder this, is there a certain point in time, Mccain’s honor will have been lost forever, and no longer retrievable, I know not, for sure, when this threshold will be in jeopardy of having been crossed, through, it is with trepidation I fear, that already, this particular point in time, may have occurred. Mccain’s campaign, now, is an assault upon the honor, of which, Mccain once possessed.

    Posted by: comfortingly numb Author Profile Page | September 24, 2008 12:24 AM

  15. She's just doesn't have the substance.

    And further, I think that the American people are ready for real answers and real substance. This is not a drill, this is not a fashion show. We're at a crux of national and international crisis. This is not the time to speed-cram a flimsy, completely out-of-nowhere scantily experienced and educated candidate into the second highest ranking position in American government. If Sarah Palin had anything intelligent or knowledgeable to say, that would be another matter. But she simply does not. She is unprepared. Her performances in her few interviews have proved what some of us already suspected from day one.

    Sarah Palin is flatly out of her league and as such, cannot be next in line for the presidency of the United States. As much as we like the idea of having a woman in formerly male-only territory, we have a greater purpose here and that is to protect the interests and well being of our nation. Remember "country first?"

    And contrary to how the GOP would attempt to sway us, we cannot vote for someone based on pity because she is a woman who is being "hounded" by the media. The American people have a right and a responsibility to vote for someone who will do the best job, all things considered. Sarah Palin is not that person at this time in her career.

    I believe that McCain has shown very poor judgment in picking Palin. It was a reckless choice that only magnifies his recent convulsive behavior in the guise of "maverickness." Thanks to McCain's superficial campaign, his party appears ever more to be the least responsible, the least capable of creating practical and sustainable change, and least fiscally conservative.

    Now more than ever we need to put aside partisan politics and unbridled passions and vote with a clear head.

    Posted by: JuliaH Author Profile Page | September 26, 2008 3:17 PM

  16. She just doesn't have the substance.

    And further, I think that the American people are ready for real answers and real substance. This is not a drill, this is not a fashion show. We're at a crux of national and international crisis. This is not the time to speed-cram a flimsy, completely out-of-nowhere scantily experienced and educated candidate into the second highest ranking position in American government. If Sarah Palin had anything intelligent or knowledgeable to say, that would be another matter. But she simply does not. She is unprepared. Her performances in her few interviews have proved what some of us already suspected from day one.

    Sarah Palin is flatly out of her league and as such, cannot be next in line for the presidency of the United States. As much as we like the idea of having a woman in formerly male-only territory, we have a greater purpose here and that is to protect the interests and well being of our nation. Remember "country first?"

    And contrary to how the GOP would attempt to sway us, we cannot vote for someone based on pity because she is a woman who is being "hounded" by the media. The American people have a right and a responsibility to vote for someone who will do the best job, all things considered. Sarah Palin is not that person at this time in her career.

    I believe that McCain has shown very poor judgment in picking Palin. It was a reckless choice that only magnifies his recent convulsive behavior in the guise of "maverickness." Thanks to McCain's superficial campaign, his party appears ever more to be the least responsible, the least capable of creating practical and sustainable change, and least fiscally conservative.

    Now more than ever we need to put aside partisan politics and unbridled passions and vote with a clear head.

    Posted by: JuliaH Author Profile Page | September 26, 2008 3:18 PM

  17. I think that the American people are ready for real answers and real substance. This is not a drill, this is not a fashion show. We're at a crux of national and international crisis. This is not the time to speed-cram a flimsy, completely out-of-nowhere scantily experienced and educated candidate into the second highest ranking position in American government. If Sarah Palin had anything intelligent or knowledgeable to say, that would be another matter. But she simply does not. She is unprepared. Her performances in her few interviews have proved what some of us already suspected from day one.

    Sarah Palin is flatly out of her league and as such, cannot be next in line for the presidency of the United States. As much as we like the idea of having a woman in formerly male-only territory, we have a greater purpose here and that is to protect the interests and well being of our nation. Remember "country first?"

    And contrary to how the GOP would attempt to sway us, we cannot vote for someone based on pity because she is a woman who is being "hounded" by the media. The American people have a right and a responsibility to vote for someone who will do the best job, all things considered. Sarah Palin is not that person at this time in her career.

    I believe that McCain has shown very poor judgment in picking Palin. It was a reckless choice that only magnifies his recent convulsive behavior in the guise of "maverickness." Thanks to McCain's superficial campaign, his party appears ever more to be the least responsible, the least capable of creating practical and sustainable change, and least fiscally conservative.

    Now more than ever we need to put aside partisan politics and unbridled passions and vote with a clear head.

    Posted by: JuliaH Author Profile Page | September 26, 2008 3:19 PM

  18. David Kernell, the 20-year-old son of Democratic Representative Mike Kernell of Tennessee, got popped. According to CNN (“Democratic lawmaker's son indicted in Palin hacking”), he reset the password and gained access to GOP VP candidate Palin's personal E-mail account. It is alleged that he read the contents, took a screenshot of her E-mail directory and obtained other personal information. The information that may have been compromised includes E-mail addresses and pictures of family members, one or more cell phone numbers of family members, family birthdates and more from Palin's address book. Interestingly, after turning himself in, David Kernell pleaded not guilty. He pleaded not guilty despite the fact that he (allegedly) took the information he hacked from Palin's personal account and posted it to a public Web site. Not only that, but he posted the new password he’d created, which would enable others to easily access Palin's E-mail themselves and view any of the contents. As a result, Kernell Junior may be subject to the heat of a five-year prison term, $250,000 fine and three years of supervised release. That’s enough to turn anybody into a fluffy white piece of popcorn. At the maximum of $1,500 per loan, that bail would require about 167 individual payday loans to free that fluffy little popped grain treat from being overcooked by cellmates.

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