Political Insider

The default Republican campaign strategy is to take the opponent's greatest strengths and try to turn them into weaknesses. So far in this campaign we've seen Obama blamed for the rise in oil prices and for taking a foreign trip that received generally enthusiastic reviews.

This week, the Obama family is on the cover of People Magazine -- again, a marketing coup for the campaign. But McCain is again trying to turn that against them by saying Obama is nothing but a celebrity.

This will go on for the next 14 weeks. An effective Obama speech will be derided as shallow rhetoric. He'll be accused of being glib in debates and issues will be framed in a way that Obama is either guilty of embracing radical, socialist ideas or flip flopping.

If Barack Obama were to single handedly discover a cure for cancer tomorrow, the McCain campaign would attack him as being arrogant for daring to play God. It's their strategy and they're sticking to it.

The stagecraft of the Obama campaign is beyond anything I have ever seen before. The interview with the girls on an evening entertainment show, the Brangelina cover and story in People Magazine. The photo op tour while emulating a president sure does make one wonder if he chooses to be a "celebrity". Personally I would prefer he stick to issues and stop changing his mind about the promises he made while campaigning. It now seems that his strategy is whatever it takes to win. FISA, womens abortion rights, finanacing, gun control, NAFTA. all have been reversed with a charming smile. I keep waiting for the leader to show up.

Obama's is using the strategy of maintaining a high profile in order to help overcome whatever latent prejudice voters may have. Once a man is familiar and agreeable, you might just vote for him even if you privately harbor some racial stereotypes about men that look like him that are unfamiliar.

Similarly, the European/Mid-East trip, the photo ops with world leaders -- these were all designed, in part, to get us familar with the idea that a person of color can stand on the world stage on our behalf and 100% look the part. And it worked. He looked the part, he looked natural , he looked strong.

So, I do think the McCain campaign is onto something when they attack his image. But they are looking pretty hamfisted in how they are going about it. The Paris and Britney ad fails, if no other reason, because they still showed the crowds greeting Obama and making him look presidential.

The other thing is, Americans love their celebrities. If McCain turns this election into merely a popularity contest, I don't see how he wins that. If people voted for Bush because he seemed like the kind of guy they'd want to have a beer with, they'll vote for Obama for being the guy they'd want to have a game of pick-up basketball with and (if he's really like Paris and Britney) to party like a rock star with.

I don't think that's a good reason to vote for Obama, but all the votes count the same. As for McCain, now Huckabee is comparing McCain's campaign to Dole's. That may not mean much to the short attention spanned populace, but those of who are paying attention know exactly what he means, and he's right.

There's a difference between negative attack ads and plain old whining. American's don't like a whiner. There is no way McCain keeps this up for more than another few days. Then he will change message again. Schmidt has been all over the map in the three weeks since he took over. An undisciplined candidate does not need an undisciplined message team.

After the first debate there will be no doubt Obama is not a vapid celebrity empty suit. He will pull ahead hard just like Reagan did after his debate with Carter.