July 2008 Archives

The Celebrity Factor

| | Comments (4)

Today, Sen. John McCain's campaign is comparing Sen. Barack Obama to celebrities like Britney Spears in both an attack television ad and a blistering campaign memo.

However, earlier this week the inventor of today's celebrity journalism, Bonnie Fuller, argued that Obama's campaign was using a "clear and clever presidential marketing strategy" based on the senator's celebrity status.

So, is being a celebrity helpful or hurtful to a presidential campaign?

100 Days

| | Comments (1)

There are just 100 days until the presidential election. A campaign that began almost two years ago is now entering it's final stretch.

Two Very Different Views of the Same Week

| | Comments (1)

The DNC: "Another week of bad news, bad reviews and campaign chaos for the McCain campaign. The only change: the campaign's increasingly desperate response."

The RNC: "Despite the most challenging environment for Republicans in years and an overwhelming advantage in attention paid by the media, Barack Obama remains unable to open the lead against John McCain that many pundits predicted."

Is McCain Planning a Thursday Surprise?

| | Comments (7)

Sen. Barack Obama's planned speech in Berlin is expected to lead the political news on Thursday, but there are some indications Sen. John McCain's campaign might be planning a surprise announcement.

First, he cancels his press availability on Wednesday.

Then, he cancels a previously unannounced trip to an off-shore oil rig in Louisiana.

And now he abruptly changes his schedule to appear in Columbus, Ohio on Thursday. The press wasn't told until the campaign plane was on the tarmac.

Will McCain pick his running mate on Thursday?

Could it be former Rep. Rob Portman (R-OH)? Or perhaps it's former Rep. John Kasich (R-OH)?

Important Poll Coming Tonight

| | Comments (0)

At this point in the presidential campaign, it's hard to put much weight in the various national polls that come out every week. However, I think it will be very interesting to see if Sen. Barack Obama's trip to the Middle East gives him a bump. Conventional wisdom suggests the trip has been a roaring success so far.

The first national survey to come out since Obama left on his international tour will be released tonight at 6:30 by NBC News and the Wall Street Journal.

Update: The poll is now out and shows no bounce.

Just Asking

| | Comments (1)

Sen. Joseph Lieberman (I-CT) -- a vocal supporter of both Sen. John McCain and the Iraq war -- was on Fox News this weekend making the point that Sen. Barack Obama wouldn't even be traveling to Iraq today if it weren't for McCain.

Isn't that exactly the point Obama has been trying to make?

Could Obama's Running Mate Be With Him Now?

| | Comments (5)

Look for Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI) to be soon added to the public short list of names Sen. Barack Obama is considering to be his running mate.

First Read makes the case: "The Rhode Island senator, who is on the overseas trip with Obama, has been to Iraq 11 times (and voted against the original Iraq war resolution)... The widely respected voice on national security is a 1971 West Point grad, though he did not fight in Vietnam. The Army Ranger paratrooper, who eventually commanded the 82nd Airborne, was assigned elsewhere... Father was a school custodian and WWII vet... Was on a trip to Afghanistan with McCain and Lieberman when he first met his wife... Took weekly art classes at the age of 5 at the Rhode Island School of Design... Big Will Ferrell fan and drives a 1991 Ford Escort... Differing with Obama, he was against the 1991 Gulf War and voted against the recent compromise FISA legislation."

By choosing Reed, Obama could address several perceived weaknesses: Reed served in the military and has significant Washington experience. As a legislator, Reed has focused on education, defense, and healthcare -- all areas that Obama is focusing on. In addition, Reed is a Roman Catholic.

The downside of choosing Reed is that he fits the definition of "Northeastern liberal" and doesn't help Obama in the important Midwestern battleground states.

How Obama Slipped Out of the Country

| | Comments (0)

Excerpts from the Pool Report filed on Saturday night by John McCormick of the Chicago Tribune:

The motorcade left Sen. Obama's home in Chicago's Kenwood neighborhood at 11:11 a.m. There was one Chicago Police Department patrol car, followed by two SUVs, a sedan and a press van. Riding in the press van were agent Jill, Sam, John McCormick of the Chicago Tribune and Glen Johnson of The Associated Press.

The motorcade headed north on Lake Shore Drive to I-55 (Stevenson Expressway) and toward MDW. The CPD blocked traffic for our turn onto the western perimeter of the airfield, where we arrived at 11:31 a.m.

Colorado Could Swing Democratic

| | Comments (0)

When Democrats officially chose Denver as the site of their national convention last year, it was a big surprise since most political observers thought New York would be the safest and most logical pick.

Now, with polls showing Sen. Barack Obama several points ahead of Sen. John McCain in the new swing state, the choice is looking very smart. The local coverage of Obama will be wall-to-wall in the last week of August and could help Democrats pull off a crucial win in a formally reliable Republican state.

Beware of Running Mate Rumors

| | Comments (0)

In the next few weeks, we'll hear reports that Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain are considering this politician or that one for a chance at being their running mate. We'll cover the rumors in detail on Political Wire.

However, if past history is any guide, many of the names "leaked" were done so intentionally -- in most cases to enhance the stature of a key supporter. It doesn't necessarily mean they're seriously being considered.

As First Read notes, "there are a couple of short lists, the actual one and the one for public consumption, so Obama and McCain can politically pay back a supporter or two."

Coloring the Map

| | Comments (1)

Let's take an early summer look at how several well-regarded pundits see the electoral map shaping up for the presidential election.

Chuck Todd says that while the presidential race remains close, Sen. Barack Obama has opened up a 210 to 189 lead over Sen. John McCain, with 139 electoral votes in the toss-up column.

Base Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT, WA (168 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: NJ, MN, OR, WI (42 votes)

Base McCain: AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (136 votes)
Lean McCain: AK, GA, IN, MT, NC, ND, SD (53 votes)

Toss-up: CO, FL, IA, MI, MO, NV, NM, NH, OH, PA, VA (139 votes)

Larry Sabato notes that an exercise like this "has to assume that the election will be basically competitive, let's say with the winner receiving 52 percent or less of the two-party vote (with all third party votes excluded from the calculation). If one candidate's proportion of the vote climbs above 52 percent, then virtually all the swing states will move in his direction, coloring the toss-up white states either Blue or Red."

Solid Obama: WA, CA, IL, MD, NY, VT, RI, MA, CT, NJ, DE, ME, DC, HI (183 electoral votes)
Likely Obama: OR, MN (17 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: IA, NM (12 electoral votes)

Solid McCain: ID, UT, AZ, WY, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, LA, AR, IN, KY, WV, TN, AL, SC (144 electoral votes)
Likely McCain: AK, GA, MS, MT, ND (30 electoral votes)
Lean McCain: FL, MO, NC (53 electoral votes)

Toss Up: CO, MI, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA, WI (99 electoral votes)

Electoral-Vote.com -- which uses the latest polling data to color the map -- shows Obama leading McCain, 320 to 218.

John Zogby also sees the electoral vote race tilting towards Obama, 273 to 160, with 105 still too close to call.

Election Projection has Obama leading McCain, 306 to 232.

Five Thirty Eight has Obama ahead of McCain, 313 to 225.

Turmoil Continues in McCain Campaign

| | Comments (3)

It seems none of the competing advisers working on Sen. John McCain's presidential campaign can actually agree who is in charge.

The New York Times reports "it is becoming clear that his campaign is once again a swirl of competing spheres of influence, clusters of friends, consultants and media advisers who represent a matrix of clashing ambitions and festering feuds... His orbit remains filled with people who have been demoted without being told they are being demoted."

In fact, this morning on Fox News, McCain himself denied that Steve Schmidt now runs his campaign -- despite his recent promotion -- saying "Rick Davis is still the guy in charge." He added that Schmidt has simply "taken on some more responsibilities."

Meanwhile, the New Republic reports the McCain campaign is "pushing back" on informed speculation that GOP consultant Mike Murphy would soon join the campaign -- even though McCain reportedly offered him the top strategist job last week.

As TNR puts it: "Of course, McCain himself could take control of the situation by calling all of his competing advisors together and ordering them to work together. But that would be a dramatic break with past practice. As the former McCain advisor puts it, 'McCain's style is, call everyone into a room, say you guys work it out, and then turn off the lights. And then throw in a knife.' The question going forward for Murphy -- or anyone, for that matter, who wants to run the McCain campaign -- seems to be whether he can grab that knife before somebody else does."

Obama Making Gains in Red States

| | Comments (4)

According to recent polls, Sen. Barack Obama is doing extremely well in states that have voted Republican in recent presidential elections.

Also see: