While many think it's too early to pay much attention to national polls at this point in the presidential race, it will be very interesting to see how much of a "bounce" Sen. Barack Obama received now that he's wrapped up the Democratic presidential nomination. The strength and longevity of an Obama bounce could be an early indicator of his chances in the general election.
Early tracking polls from Gallup and Rasmussen already show Obama getting an initial bounce. As Obama is increasingly portrayed in the media as the Democratic nominee, conventional wisdom suggests his bounce will increase his national lead over Sen. John McCain into the double-digits. However, if it's less, it suggests Obama may have lingering problems from the tough Democratic primary contests.
First Read argues the bounce is important for Obama because "it will determine the strength of his hand regarding Clinton as veep. If his bounce is tiny and his lead over McCain remains in single digits, there will be a lot of whispers from pro-Hillary circles that he needs her constituency. If Obama's bounce pushes his national poll lead into double digits, then he can more easily dismiss the idea of adding Clinton to the ticket."
Meanwhile, Dick Morris suggests Clinton could actually still replace Obama on the ticket: "If Obama makes a mistake and begins to drop in the polls or some other
tape comes out or a new pastor emerges with more racial rhetoric,
Hillary still has her 1,639.5 delegates. Count on her to back Obama in
public, but look for her aides and supporters, and perhaps her husband,
to raise the question of whether or not the results of the primaries
should not be revisited in light of the trouble in the Obama candidacy."
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Comments
Dick Morris does not speak for Mrs. Clinton as she has said that she will speak for herself. Rumors such as these cause trouble. To a large degree, Mrs. Clinton's ability to rally her own supporters to support the democratic nominee, will affect her legacy and her future stature in the party. She is aware of this, but more than this, she is sincere in support of Senator Obama at this point. She realizes that our country is in perilous times and she would do nothing to dilute the opportunity to put a democrat in the White House after 8 years of Bush programs. It does not honor her for surrogates to attempt to weaken the position of our nominee and she would be the first to say so. As far as her campaign, she has made it clear that that was then and this is now. And she is widely admired for endorsing him with such strength and charm. Thank you Senator Clinton.
Posted by: karela
| June 9, 2008 3:45 PM
Dick Morris is living in cloud-cuckoo land. "If Obama makes a mistake and begins to drop in the polls or some other tape comes out or a new pastor emerges with more racial rhetoric."
He's had the pastor who married him on YouTube shouting "God damn America" repeatedly. And he handled that.
What is Dick Morris expecting in the next two months before Denver? Video evidence of random pastor/candidate bestiality ?
Posted by: The Burbler
| June 10, 2008 9:42 AM
There are only 20 weeks between now and the election. And even though we are in a 24/7 rapid response internet age, I think presidential politics still amounts to who wins the week and gets the best coverage on the Sunday shows and around the water cooler on Monday morning.
So far McCain has had four months unmolested since he locked down the nomination and he has done nothing to get the public's attention. There has been alot of negative sniper fire that wounded Obama. But he just comes back for more and stays ahead in the polls.
If you (or surrogates) attack your opponent one week and then he comes back the next you have accomplised nothing. You let your opponent be the lead story two weeks in a row.
Politicians of both parties are such fools. The "teflon" that Reagan and Clinton had was applied coat by coat by their opponents attacking them so often and in such transparently petty ways. Get ready for Bulletproof Barack.
Posted by: artigiano
| June 10, 2008 5:10 PM
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