With former Republican Rep. Bob Barr's announcement yesterday that he'll run for president as a Libertarian, he could actually play a very critical role in deciding the next president.
Most people think Barr's candidacy will drain votes from Sen. John McCain. Though Barr says he's not getting in the race to play a spoiler, that's clearly how he'll make the biggest impact. Hiring
Ross Perot's former campaign manager doesn't mean he'll gather support anywhere near the levels Perot did in 1992 and 1996. But he can reach single digit support in many states. Ralph Nader was a spoiler in the 2000 election with just 2.7% of the national vote.
The one state to watch is Barr's home state of Georgia, where he could conceivably get five or more percent of the vote. Georgia has long been seen as part of the GOP base. However, when combined with the large numbers of black voters expected to come out for Sen. Barack Obama, Barr's candidacy could possibly tip the state's 15 electoral votes to the Democrats. That could be the difference in a close election.
One important wild card: Since Barr is opposed to the Iraq war, he might actually take votes away from Obama and not McCain.
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Meanwhile, back on planet Earth, Georgia safely remains in the Republican column.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
Obama chance of winning: 6%
Clinton chance of winning: 3%
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Obama loses by 14%
Clinton loses by 11%
Posted by: AntonX2
| May 13, 2008 2:41 PM
Last time I checked, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Illinois were all on planet Earth.
Last week, a Democrat defeated a Republican in Mississipi for a House seat that Republicans had held for 14 years.
Two weeks ago, a Democrat defeated a Republican in Louisiana for a seat that Republicans had held for 34 years.
Two months ago, a Democrat defeated a Republican in Illinois for a seat (Senate Leader Hastert's, no less) that Republicans had held for 20 years.
As for GA polls that don't yet reflect the news of Barr's candidacy... um, yeah, those are worth a lot...
Posted by: I'm Sorry I Voted Republican in 2000 and 2004
| May 17, 2008 12:27 PM
"One important wild card: Since Barr is opposed to the Iraq war, he might actually take votes away from Obama and not McCain."
Seriously? Besides the war, Obama and Barr have nothing in common. Maybe some moderate Republicans who oppose the war will vote for Barr instead of Obama, but then isn't Barr still just taking votes from McCain?
Posted by: Jesse
| May 20, 2008 11:57 AM
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