Here's some "pre-game" analysis:
- While the room will be packed with lawyers, everyone should realize the decision will be less about actual rules than the politics and perceptions of the Democratic primary process. There is no way the DNC will let a rules committee decide the victor of the nomination.
- Don't expect many fireworks. The Obama campaign is urging its supporters to stay quiet and protests by Clinton supporters could backfire and cause the committee to reject the challenges entirely.
- The most likely outcome is that the rules committee will reinstate 50% of the Florida and Michigan delegates. According to a memo, party lawyers don't believe they have the authority to do any more than that.
- The twist, as First Read notes, are the "uncommitted" delegates from Michigan's primary. "If the Rules committee decides to accept the January primary results then it's not clear, via the DNC charter, that it's within the party's rules to assign uncommitted delegates to Obama."
- Although she will probably have succeeded in changing the "magic number" for the nomination, Sen. Hillary Clinton will still likely be disappointed by the committee's decision. The math doesn't work for her now and won't work for her after Saturday either.
- Political junkies will be dissapointed because, despite the hype, the decision will not materially influence who will win the Democratic nomination.
Comments
Counting the votes of MI and FL was never about the "math doesn't work for her now and won't work for her after Saturday either." Selection of the Democratic nominee now has nothing to do with any "math"; it has everything to do with superdelegates and their independent judgement disconnected from any "math" and their wisdom, integrity, and courage.
It's all hogwash from the DNC laywers. Count every single vote in full for FL and MI. This is not a third world banana republic where people's votes don't count. This is America, the beacon light of democracy to the world.
This is about democracy and not about lawyers - get the fee-gouging lawyers out of the picture and count the votes in full.
If the votes are not counted for voters who want their votes to count in MI and FL, then in November there will be no votes to count for the Democratic Party. These votes will go to the Republican Party.
FL votes should count as cast. Obama campaigned in FL with TV advertising against the "rules." Obama should get nothing from MI because he voluntarily took his name off the ballot and he blocked a revote. The sly, slick, and ruthless Obama should be a man and accept the consequences of his conduct with no whining.
Sen. Clinton must continue her fight to the convention for the future of the Democratic Party and America. All rational Democrats need to show steadfast support for her campaign with frequent contributions at HillaryClinton.com.
Posted by: crat3
| May 28, 2008 11:39 AM
I can't believe CRAT3 is still spouting the line about Obama "voluntarily taking his name off the Michigan ballot". All candidates were instructed to take their names off the Michigan ballot. Hillary defied the party and kept hers on.
Posted by: RufusT
| May 28, 2008 12:14 PM
There are a couple of reasons the Florida and Michigan primaries should not be fully counted:
- The Florida and Michigan primaries were declared invalid before they were held--it's not a question of people voting and only then being told their votes would not count. Voters knew the primary results were not going to be counted, it was in all the media; therefore no one knows how many people who would have voted in a legitimate primary did not vote in the one they knew in advance was considered null. Consider athletes participating in a tournament, and being told that the score of a particular event will not be counted; some athletes participate, some do not, some participate but only for the exercise, without giving it their all. Then they're told that the score will count after all. That is the situation we would be in with Florida and Michigan if the results were to be fully counted.
- In Michigan, Obama was not on the ballot. There is no way of knowing how many people who voted for Clinton may have voted for Obama if his name had been on the ballot. It would be patently unfair to penalize him for taking his name off the ballot, because he did so only because the DNC declared the primary invalid.
Arguing for a full seating of the FLA/MI delegates according to the vote in these illegitimate contests clearly has nothing to do with justice for the voters and everything to do with the electoral boost it would give Clinton. To make the contest really fair according to the rules, they would simply not be counted at all, and voter frustration would be properly directed at the state parties, not at Obama, the DNC, or the national party in general. Furthermore, I think voters frustrated at not participating in the primaries would be all the more motivated to vote in the general election, rather than sulk or vote Republican.
Posted by: Tom
| May 29, 2008 6:29 AM
Tom, Thanks for the best articulated argument on this subject that I've seen to date. The hypocrisy of the Clinton side's argument concerning "fairness" in Michigan and Florida defies logic and is strikingly antithetic to fairness and the very principles Democrats have traditionally stood for. I just hope Hillary is more rational than her supporters and that she'll do the right thing soon, before it's too late for all of us.
Posted by: richr2003
| May 29, 2008 12:11 PM
crat3, I assure you that you are either a complete idiot or a Clinton operative. You are right on one thing: This *IS* all about democracy, and thats why Clinton has already lost. She's not winning the popular vote anymore thanks to recent primaries, and she has been voted down by every weight and measure. The fact you respect a candidate more than the system shows you aren't interested in democracy. Even if Fl and MI get seated in full, Clinton simply cannot overtake Obama without a massive majority of the remaining supers. Oddly enough, Obama was won a massive majority of the supers that have declared since Super Tuesday. For the good of all of us, get out Hillary. I'd be saying the same if it were Obama being so resilient.
Posted by: justneutral
| May 29, 2008 10:59 PM
"For the good of all of us, get out Hillary. I'd be saying the same if it were Obama being so resilient."
Liar.
Posted by: Patsi
| May 31, 2008 3:20 AM
What gets overlooked and what is actually most important from a Democratic Party perspective, is that Florida and Michigan voters need to feel they were treated fairly in this process by the Democrats, otherwise we won't have much of a chance in those very important states in November.
Posted by: kind67
| May 31, 2008 9:10 AM
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