It's hard enough to poll primary races due to selection bias. However, several factors unique to today's election could throw off turnout models and make these survey's very unreliable:
- Overall turnout today is set to break historic records.
- The excitement of the race could change the number of late day voters who are never captured in exit polls.
- With open primaries in each state, large numbers of Republicans and/or independents are voting in the Democratic primaries.
- Voters participating in Rush Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos" may not tell pollsters the truth.
- Historical patterns don't mean much since it's been a very long time since presidential primaries in either state mattered very much.
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