If you don't think House Republicans have a tough road this fall, you're not listening to Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA) who is sounding the alarm bells. Yesterday, he sent an extensive memo to Republican leaders outlining the problem as he sees it. 

Today, he was brutally blunt in an interview on Bloomberg TV's Political Capital with Al Hunt. He predicted a loss of 20-25 Republican seats if the election were held today and said Sen. John McCain would lose the presidential election if he was perceived as leading a third Bush term.

Excerpts of the transcript follow.

Ever since John Edwards dropped out of the presidential race in late January, pundits have wondered (in this order): Who will he endorse for president? When will he make an endorsement? Why hasn't he made an endorsement?

Interestingly, by not choosing between Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton in their tough primary battle until the nomination was all but decided, Edwards stands as a potential healer of the Democratic party. And by remaining neutral in the race for so long, he's also best positioned to be Sen. Barack Obama's running mate.

Here's the case for picking Edwards:

1. He's already been tested on the national stage and not likely to cause a distracting scandal.
2. He appeals to the same working class white voters that back Clinton. 
3. He favors Obama's new brand of politics.
   
4. He could put North Carolina and possibly other Southern states in play.
   
5. Clinton would probably support him. With more than 1,700 delegates in Clinton's pocket, Obama needs to at least get her tacit approval if he wants to have a unified party.
   

With former Republican Rep. Bob Barr's announcement yesterday that he'll run for president as a Libertarian, he could actually play a very critical role in deciding the next president.

Most people think Barr's candidacy will drain votes from Sen. John McCain. Though Barr says he's not getting in the race to play a spoiler, that's clearly how he'll make the biggest impact. Hiring Ross Perot's former campaign manager doesn't mean he'll gather support anywhere near the levels Perot did in 1992 and 1996. But he can reach single digit support in many states. Ralph Nader was a spoiler in the 2000 election with just 2.7% of the national vote.

The one state to watch is Barr's home state of Georgia, where he could conceivably get five or more percent of the vote. Georgia has long been seen as part of the GOP base. However, when combined with the large numbers of black voters expected to come out for Sen. Barack Obama, Barr's candidacy could possibly tip the state's 15 electoral votes to the Democrats. That could be the difference in a close election.

One important wild card: Since Barr is opposed to the Iraq war, he might actually take votes away from Obama and not McCain.

With Sen. Hillary Clinton vowing to stay in the presidential race at least until next month, it makes sense to briefly handicap the remaining six contests.

In next week's West Virginia primary, on May 13, Sen. Hillary Clinton is the heavy favorite given the state's friendly demographics. In fact, recent polls show her nearly 30 points ahead of Sen. Barack Obama.

On May 20, the campaign heads to Oregon, which leans towards Obama. Recent polls have him winning leading by a comfortable 8 to 12 point margin. Also voting on the same day is Kentucky, which should be Clinton territory by a large double-digit margin.

Puerto Rico votes on June 1 and may have the highest turnout of the remaining primaries. Despite the lack of public polling, most analysts pick Clinton as the favorite.

The Democratic primary season finally comes to an end two days later on June 3 when South Dakota and Montana get their turn. Both states lean in Obama's direction.

Despite most analysts declaring the Democratic presidential race "basically over," Sen. Barack Obama moves into a very uncomfortable phase of his campaign. He's essentially locked up the nomination but his main rival, Sen. Hillary Clinton, is still in the race.

It reminds me of 1984 and 1988 when Jesse Jackson kept his White House bids alive all the way until the Democratic conventions. The question everyone asked all summer long was, "What does Jesse want?" He couldn't win, but he held enough power to be a voice at the table.

So, what does Hillary want? Here are a few things that Obama could offer to help ease her out of the race.

1. Help retiring her debt. Clinton loaned her campaign nearly $12 million since February and she'll want Obama's help in paying that back and taking care of any other unpaid bills.
2. A major policy win. Just as John Edwards got both Clinton and Obama to make ending poverty part of their campaigns, Clinton needs to show supporters she's had a substantive impact. Having her health care plan as part of the Democratic platform would appeal to her supporters -- and those of Edwards as well.
3. Input on the vice presidential selection. While Clinton might not want to be vice president, she has enough clout to make Obama pick someone who is loyal to her. That means someone like Sen. Evan Bayh or Gen. Wesley Clark could get the nod. It also means it won't be Bill Richardson.
   

Let the negotiations begin.

Editor's Note: This piece was inspired by discussions with several people, including Dan Conley who is also writing a piece on the topic for Salon.com.

In the next couple hours, we'll probably see leaked exit polls from Indiana and North Carolina. It would be wise not to pay much attention to them.

It's hard enough to poll primary races due to selection bias. However, several factors unique to today's election could throw off turnout models and make these survey's very unreliable:

• Overall turnout today is set to break historic records.
• The excitement of the race could change the number of late day voters who are never captured in exit polls.
  
• With open primaries in each state, large numbers of Republicans and/or independents are voting in the Democratic primaries.
• Voters participating in Rush Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos" may not tell pollsters the truth.
  
• Historical patterns don't mean much since it's been a very long time since presidential primaries in either state mattered very much.

If you really want to see some data, you're better off looking at Charles Franklin's final analysis of the primary polling.

Believe it or not, the Democratic presidential race is slowly coming to the end. The only problem is the two campaigns don't agree on the finish line.

After today's primaries, NBC News projects that there will be more undeclared superdelegates (264) and disputed delegates (366 in Florida and Michigan) than there are to win in the final six contests (217) through June 3. "Indeed, there's an argument to be made that after today, there are more delegates to be had INSIDE THE BELTWAY than out on the trail. So for all intents and purposes, today is the last shopping day of the primary season for the two Dems to impress the superdelegates on their issues."

Despite the proportional allocation of delegates, most analysts estimate that Sen. Barack Obama will add to his delegate count tonight. He's also been the beneficiary of many more superdelegates endorsements over the last month than his rival, Sen. Hillary Clinton.

Here are the latest delegate counts from the Associated Press and the networks:

AP: Obama 1,745, Clinton 1,608
CNN: Obama 1,745, Clinton 1,602
ABC: Obama 1,748, Clinton 1,604
NBC: Obama 1,745, Clinton 1,611
CBS: Obama 1,745, Clinton 1,603

According to DNC rules, the winner needs 2025 delegates. However, as Obama closes in on that magic number, the Washington Times notes Clinton's campaign is trying to "move the goal posts" once more. The Clinton campaign now says the number needed to win is 2,208, which includes the disputed delegates.

Said Clinton strategist Geoff Garin: "That's what we believe is the standard for deciding this -- who has the majority of the total delegates including Michigan and Florida to decide the nomination"

Presidential politics is often more about beating expectations than beating your opponent. It's through this lens that the results of Tuesday's primaries in North Carolina and Indiana must be viewed.

Based on the demographics, North Carolina should be a win for Sen. Barack Obama by a relatively large margin. However, if Sen. Hillary Clinton closes the gap to just a few points, it will be seen as a victory for her. If she manages to win the state, Obama's campaign could be mortally-wounded in the eyes of many superdelegates.

Indiana should be a closer race, though most polls give Sen. Hillary Clinton the edge. If she wins by any margin close to double-digits it will be seen as a big victory. However, if Obama pulls out the victory it could be the end of her campaign.

Of course, smaller wins for each candidate in their favored state would just mean that the race will continue. And recent polls suggest it's probably the most likely outcome.