Political Insider

The reports of the Obama surge in Pennsylvania are somewhat out of date.

Let me preface the following by saying I am an Obama supporter, and I find some of my conclusions a bit disappointing. But the fact remains that the current numbers tell a story, if you look closely, and that story does not match the current "Obama resurgent" storyline.

There were two Pennsylvania surveys conducted between 3/31 and 4/1 by Rasmussen and Public Policy Polling. If you take into account the two surveys' margin of error, Rasmussen showed Clinton with the higher floor of 43% while PPP showed Clinton with the lower ceiling of 45.8. In other words, together they were agreed that Clinton was between 43 and 45.8. Using the same calculation, the two surveys showed Obama as being between 42.2 and 46. Clearly these two surveys were in agreement that Obama and Clinton were now tied. Moreover, if you looked at the previous universe of Pennsylvania polls, it then became apparent that the movement was not up on Obama's part, because the latter's support range in the 3/31 to 4/1 period OVERLAPPED his support range in the previous polling period of 3/26 to 3/31. Rather the statistically significant number change was on Clinton's part. Her showing in the 3/26-3/31 period was 48.9-52.5, a statistically significant difference from her 3/31-4/1 showing of 43-45.8. In other words, it was not Obama who moved up; it was Clinton who moved down.

But here's the point: CLINTON HAS CEASED MOVING DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING UP AGAIN.

There appears to be no doubt on this point. Not one, but two polling periods since 3/31-4/1 are in agreement on this point. In the current polling period, 4/5-7, two surveys are in agreement, Survey USA and Rasmussen. Together they show Clinton as being between 51.9 and 52 while they show Obama as being between 39 and 42.1. Moreover that in itself is not the first, but the SECOND, polling period in which Clinton has been doing better than Obama. In the previous polling period of 4/1-4/6 Clinton was between 47.3 and 48.7 while Obama was between 41.3 and 43. Just as significant here is the fact that just between 4/1-6 and 4/5-7 Clinton has moved up a statistically signficant amount while Obama has not changed by a statistically significant amount at all.

In other words, during Clinton's momentary blip in Pennsylvania she moved down while Obama remained unchanged. Now her blip is over and she is moving back up, with Obama still unchanged.

End of story, I think.

I wrote above: "In the current polling period, 4/5-7, two surveys are in agreement, Survey USA and Rasmussen. Together they show Clinton as being between 51.9 and 52 while they show Obama as being between 39 and 42.1. Moreover that in itself is not the first, but the SECOND, polling period in which Clinton has been doing better than Obama. In the previous polling period of 4/1-4/6 Clinton was between 47.3 and 48.7 while Obama was between 41.3 and 43."

It looks like I'm going to have to amend that a bit. Public Policy Polling just released another Pennsylvania survey. It agrees both with the current Rasmussen and with all the surveys from the PREVIOUS polling period from 4/1-4/6. Under the circumstances, there is not much doubt that the Survey USA survey was a rogue, out of step with the message other polls are giving us. Furthermore, on that basis, it is reasonable to conclude that in fact that there has been only one polling universe since Clinton started heading up again in Pennsylvania, the one that started on 4/1 and continues to this day.

However this does not change my basic conclusion, which is that Clinton is now on the mend in Pennsylvania and is on the way up, while talk of an Obama resurgence in Pennsylvania is probably out of date.

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